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[jimbo]

ToS Wii is supposedly even worse and yet it still outsold both titles with a lot less spend on it. And I bet it'll do better in the west too. A game's quality is not always reflected in its sales.

And I don't think both titles met or will meet the expectations the publishers had for western hemispheres. Rather poor Japanese sales were expected but the western ones should've made up for them. But if software sales in Japan for these types of games pick up it could be a worthy investment still and 360 could get an even biger piece of the (shrinking) pie.

And Lost Odyssey is MS published - a bit of an unfair comparisson to begin with. Plus it crashed horribly in Japan, that's not really an option for a Japanese based studio (unless you're funded by MS of course).

edit:
Oh, forgot that ToS Wii is not even a main-line title too.

Dude, the Wii's user base dwarfs the 360's. Of course it's not going to compete with it. And no one in their right mind would expect any different, including the publishers themselves. You think they were not aware the 360 had not even hit 500k units in Japan when they started making the game for it?

Besides, didn't NAMCO themselves expect 150k in Japan? Why do people keep arguing against this. They expected it. It looks to be on track to reach it. End of story.

I swear it seems there's always someone ready to spin any piece of positive 360 news into something negative.

ToV sold over 100k.
It caused a sell out.
IU had a strong opening.
The 360 looks to have had a stellar week following the price drop.
And people continue to buy ToV which is back on the charts.

All of these things are GOOD THINGS people. GOOD THINGS.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Since you're asking, my guess is that Sony are working on creating a smaller redesigned PS3 console to go alongside a price drop next year. The current PS3s already have a much bigger chassis than what's really needed for the guts inside (the motherboard was dramatically reduced with the 40GB last year and with the new 80GB's both the CPU & GPU are 65nm). New console bundle with WKC + FF7 BD (w/ FFXII demo) in March(?) would be a nice. Though if I was to put money on it I would guess pricedrop/redesign next September.

I thought an Advent Children PS3 bundle with FFXIII demo was already announced for March or was that bogus? No mention of WK (and it wouldn't make any sense too).

 

[°°ToMmY°°]

i'm going to make a game for the phantom, with a forecast prediction of 5 copies sold. if the game will sell 4 copies i'll go out in the street dancing and screaming: "mission accomplished!!1!"

that's what you are implying, jimbo.

 

[jimbo]

Yes, yes it is. It is indeed a bomba. However you will try to spin it. Valkyria Chronicles is a bomba, Lost Odyssey is a bomba, Eternal Sonata also is, Infinite Undiscovery is certainly going to join them.

It is common knowledge that is a great result for a 360 game in Japan, considered the install base, but a bomba nonetheless.

Look at the previous results from Team Symphonia games, please. Abyss bombed bad in the U.S. (50k?), but sold 556.465 in Japan alone.

Symphonia itself sold more than 700k copies between NGC and PS2, let alone U.S. sales. Even if you consider one platform at time, it's still 350k copies each. (well, 390k PS2 vs 325k NGC, but who cares)

Now, how much should Vesperia sell in America and Europe for make up for Japanese sales? 450k? Where in this world will that happen?

And I'm not even considering how much the game probably costed to them.

How the heck aren't you considering a sales failure a game who will probably never reach 200k mark in Japan is beyond my understanding.



Competition doesn't mean a thing, especially considered it had slightly more than a month to sell properly, all by itself.

If previous Tales installment hadn't sold that much, or if this was a new IP, then yeah, we could try to discuss, but it's not the case. We know how much a main Tales is capable of selling, and this is not the best it can do. This is probably closer to the worst it can do, looking at how much did Symphonia Ratatosk sell.

Ok, since now games that sell over 100k in a week are bombs( I have news for you 80% of ALL games sell less than 100k), and apparently so are games that go to sell half a million world wide like LO. You know what? Then I guess Namco expected a bomb, and that's what it got. My question is, what's it to you?

Competition doesn't mean a thing, especially considered it had slightly more than a month to sell properly, all by itself.

Also that's a joke, especially when it comes to such direct competition as this and we had proof of that in this very forum(go back and read the "which one are you getting", threads). And it really didn't considering those that those who owned a 360 and were in the market for it bought it, while others were left out in the cold since the system has been sold out since the game came out. Which is WHY it's back up in the charts now.

There's just no middle ground with some of you.

 

[°°ToMmY°°]

There's just no middle ground with some of you.

:lol :lol

and yes, namco expected a bomb with tov in japan, considering the sales of the other games of the series. they thought to make a earning with western sales of the game, it's there that we'll see if the game will be a commercial success for namco.

but please, stop calling out others when they put the hard truth in front of your eyes.

 

[jimbo]

:lol :lol

and yes, namco expected a bomb with tov in japan, considering the sales of the other games of the series. they thought to make a earning with western sales of the game, it's there that we'll see if the game will be a commercial success for namco.

but please, stop calling out others when they put the hard truth in front of your eyes.

The others? All I see is a couple of guys who got their panties all bunched up over the 360 doing something good in Japan and can't wait to tear it to pieces. The rest of the posters seem to be pretty happy with the sales of the game, and pretty impressed.

In the mean time please stop talking like you KNOW what you are talking about. You have NO IDEA what Namco's goals are, what their financial statements look like, what kind of money they spent making it, what their expected return on investment was, what their margins look like. You have no freaking clue. Just like the rest of us. So pick your side, argue it, but unless you have some sort of ID that tells me you are in a financial executive role at Namco, stop talking about things you couldnt possibly know the answer to.

The ONLY thing we know from Namco is that they expected 150k in sales in Japan and the game looks on track to do that. Period.

Oh and on top of all that, the game has been out less than a month. You have no idea where it;s going to end up by the end of the holiday season in the US, and you don't know what it's going to sell when it gets released in Europe. Do you?

 

[TelemachusD]

Blue Dragon Launch in Japan: Dec 2006 -- a week or several after the 360 itself launched.
Lost Odyssey Launch in Japan: Dec 2007

I don't really see any bumps. This could be its biggest post-launch week ever.

You seem to be confusing the Blue Dragon bump with the 360's launch a year earlier. The chart above only begins at the Wii launch. The 360 launched in Japan Dec. 10, 2005, not at the end of 2006.

The week of Blue Dragon's release, the 360 sold 35,343 an increase of 31k over the previous week's 4,053, and followed that up with 17k, 17k, 16.9k, 18k, a better 5 week total (by about 15k) than the 360 launch itself. I'd call that a pretty big bump (at least by percentage).

 

[Phife Dawg]

Dude, the Wii's user base dwarfs the 360's. Of course it's not going to compete with it. And no one in their right mind would expect any different, including the publishers themselves. You think they were not aware the 360 had not even hit 500k units in Japan when they started making the game for it?

Besides, didn't NAMCO themselves expect 150k in Japan? Why do people keep arguing against this. They expected it. It looks to be on track to reach it. End of story.

I swear it seems there's always someone ready to spin any piece of positive 360 news into something negative.

ToV sold over 100k.
It caused a sell out.
IU had a strong opening.
The 360 looks to have had a stellar week following the price drop.
And people continue to buy ToV which is back on the charts.

All of these things are GOOD THINGS people. GOOD THINGS.

What's the point? It's supposedly the worse Tales of the two and costed a lot less and still sold more. Everyone is whining about third party performance on the Wii and yet selling less with a mainline game vs. a spin-off of dubious quality is all fine and dandy now? It's not a question of quality like you said.

And as I said, lackluster performance in Japan was expected, the plan was that the success in the west will make up for that. It did not and will not. End of story. The strategy failed, but if software sales pick up with hardware sales catering 360 games to Japanese tastes could become viable, even without big success in the western markets. 360 could secure more of the pie. How is that negative?

That this pie is shrinking and becoming more and more niche is a different story.

Ok, since now games that sell over 100k in a week are bombs( I have news for you 80% of ALL games sell less than 100k), and apparently so are games that go to sell half a million world wide like LO. You know what? Then I guess Namco expected a bomb, and that's what it got. My question is, what's it to you?

Good god, it's an arbitrary line drawn in the sand yet again. These sales are incredibly front loaded, it's a mainline Tales game with decent enough production values and an coinciding budget. No two games are made equal. To put it bluntly: Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles selling over 100k in a week was a success (because it's a low-budget spin-off and even then more than doubled the first week sales). If Resident Evil 5 sells just over 100k it'll be a huge desaster (because it's a mainline game with a big budget).

LO isn't really fitting here, for reasons I already mentioned. It was a catastrophe in Japan. MS doing the publishing and marketing helped with the sales in the west but that's hardly something other developers that are not funded by MS can risk or even get a budget for.

And Namco expected lackluster sales in Japan, but they expected to reap the benefits of going 360 in the west.

The others? All I see is a couple of guys who got their panties all bunched up over the 360 doing something good in Japan and can't wait to tear it to pieces. The rest of the posters seem to be pretty happy with the sales of the game, and pretty impressed.

:lol Pathetic. I even said going 360 with these games could be viable option in the future despite lack of success in the west.

Oh and on top of all that, the game has been out less than a month. You have no idea where it;s going to end up by the end of the holiday season in the US, and you don't know what it's going to sell when it gets released in Europe. Do you?

Because Tales has a history of sales over a long period of time? And on a userbase that doesn't care about these titles and will be busy playing the countless titles that are catered to their preferences come holiday season?

 

[jimbo]

What's the point? It's supposedly the worse Tales of the two and costed a lot less and still sold more. .......................
Because Tales has a history of sales over a long period of time? And on a userbase that doesn't care about these titles and will be busy playing the countless titles that are catered to their preferences come holiday season?

But you don't know, do you? You are just assuming.

Also do you have actual FIGURES to back up your claims, or are you assuming things again?

I love it how every 360 game costs an arm and a leg just because they are next gen. ToV doesn't look to be any more than a HD version of all of their previous titles. People use this line over and over again without actual hard data to back it up and the funny thing is there have been bigger bombs and games that cost a lot more to develop on previous generation hardware.

Just because a game is for the 360 it doesn't necessarily mean it costs that much more. When developers talk about this, they are reffering to games that TRULY step up and put a lot of effort into production values. Games like FFXIII, MGS4, Gears of War, you know TRUE next-gen games.

For all we know the 360 could make some of these games cheaper to develop since developers don't have to fight the hardware as much and it's a pretty easy platform to develop for. I am not seeing where it would have cost THAT much more money than the previous series.

Once again, I challenge you to back up your claims. Otherwise, why do you keep attacking a game that ONCE AGAIN, met the publisher's expectations in its initial market.

So it didn't sell what the Wii or GC versions did. Does it automatically make it a failure?

 

[rykomatsu]

Once again, I challenge you to back up your claims. Otherwise, why do you keep attacking a game that ONCE AGAIN, met the publisher's expectations in its initial market.

uh...wasn't expected LTD sales estimated to be 500k world wide by NBGI? Pretty sure it was part of a shareholders financial outlook package thing a while back...somehow, I highly doubt it'll reach that figure with initial sales looking the way it does.

i'll try to post a link later...it's not even 5am yet here atm...back to sleep..

 

[CrunchinJelly]

uh...wasn't expected LTD sales estimated to be 500k world wide by NBGI?

Is this the same Namco that predicted sales of 500k for Ridge Racer 6 in Japan?

 

[°°ToMmY°°]

The others? All I see is a couple of guys who got their panties all bunched up over the 360 doing something good in Japan and can't wait to tear it to pieces. The rest of the posters seem to be pretty happy with the sales of the game, and pretty impressed.

In the mean time please stop talking like you KNOW what you are talking about. You have NO IDEA what Namco's goals are, what their financial statements look like, what kind of money they spent making it, what their expected return on investment was, what their margins look like. You have no freaking clue. Just like the rest of us. So pick your side, argue it, but unless you have some sort of ID that tells me you are in a financial executive role at Namco, stop talking about things you couldnt possibly know the answer to.

The ONLY thing we know from Namco is that they expected 150k in sales in Japan and the game looks on track to do that. Period.

Oh and on top of all that, the game has been out less than a month. You have no idea where it;s going to end up by the end of the holiday season in the US, and you don't know what it's going to sell when it gets released in Europe. Do you?

phife already answered you. i don't even need to reply to this silly post.

 

[jimbo]

uh...wasn't expected LTD sales estimated to be 500k world wide by NBGI? Pretty sure it was part of a shareholders financial outlook package thing a while back...somehow, I highly doubt it'll reach that figure with initial sales looking the way it does.

i'll try to post a link later...it's not even 5am yet here atm...back to sleep..

LTD. Worldwide.

They also said 150k in Japan. You can bet it's going to do that and then some.



But let me see if I have this right.

Publisher states 500k world wide. They expect 150k in Japan.
Game comes out and looks to meet their expectations. Causes a sell-out in the process.
We get 4 day worth of US sales which look so-so, but still put it over the 200k mark.
LTD, means life to date, which by my calculations would mean second shipments , third shipments, etc etc, for however long the game is in circulation. It also means SHIPPED, which is higher than the number we get.
The game will be seing a release in Europe next year, and those figures would also go towards the 500k number.

So as of right now, after one month in Japan and 4 days in the US, it looks to me like the game needs to SHIP less than half of their total world wide expectations copies over the remaining of its life, with holidays still to come and European release next year.

Somehow all this is bad?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

LTD. Worldwide.

They expect 150k in Japan.

Wrong. Wrong.

Wrong.

Enjoy your week jimbo, but don't spread bullshit thank you.

 

[Phife Dawg]

But you don't know, do you? You are just assuming.

Also do you have actual FIGURES to back up your claims, or are you assuming things again?

I'm making a prediction and don't see anything wrong with that. You seem to think sales could pick up during the holiday season. I already mentioned why I think sales won't pick up, what were your thoughts before you came to your conclusion that a sales increase is possible?

I love it how every 360 game costs an arm and a leg just because they are next gen. ToV doesn't look to be any more than a HD version of all of their previous titles. People use this line over and over again without actual hard data to back it up and the funny thing is there have been bigger bombs and games that cost a lot more to develop on previous generation hardware.

Just because a game is for the 360 it doesn't necessarily mean it costs that much more. When developers talk about this, they are reffering to games that TRULY step up and put a lot of effort into production values. Games like FFXIII, MGS4, Gears of War, you know TRUE next-gen games.

For all we know the 360 could make some of these games cheaper to develop since developers don't have to fight the hardware as much and it's a pretty easy platform to develop for. I am not seeing where it would have cost THAT much more money than the previous series.

It's quite simple, just take a look at both ToV and ToS Wii and then add the fact that one is the mainline title, while the other is a spin-off. I don't need anyone from Bandai-Namco to give me any numbers to know that one of them had a lower budget by far (hint: it's not ToV). I hope you're not seriously debating that.

Once again, I challenge you to back up your claims. Otherwise, why do you keep attacking a game that ONCE AGAIN, met the publisher's expectations in its initial market.

Attack the game? :lol WTF? You should take some deep breaths. And like rykomatsu I think sales estimates for ToV were 500k for Japan, US and Asia and the fiscal year 2008.

So it didn't sell what the Wii or GC versions did. Does it automatically make it a failure?

There is no Wii or GC version of ToV. Wii only got a spin-off as of now (with a mainline title coming). And ToS GC sold more than double what ToV did - on the freaking Gamecube, in Japan! Plus it was a success in the US, again, on the Gamecube. Yes, comparing it to those titles I would indeed say ToV is a disappointment.

edit:
misread rykomatsu's post. I think it was JP/US/A and not worldwide, since ToV EU release is still way off and probably doesn't fall into FY 2008 (that's what the expectations were for I think).

 

[jimbo]

It's quite simple, just take a look at both ToV and ToS Wii and then add the fact that one is the mainline title, while the other is a spin-off. I don't need anyone from Bandai-Namco to give me any numbers to know that one of them had a lower budget by far (hint: it's not ToV). I hope you're not seriously debating that.


Attack the game? :lol WTF? You should take some deep breaths. And like rykomatsu I think sales estimates for ToV were 500k for Japan, US and Asia and the fiscal year 2008.


There is no Wii or GC version of ToV. Wii only got a spin-off as of now (with a mainline title coming). And ToS GC sold more than double what ToV did - on the freaking Gamecube, in Japan! Plus it was a success in the US, again, on the Gamecube. Yes, comparing it to those titles I would indeed say ToV is a disappointment.

edit:
misread rykomatsu's post. I think it was JP/US/A and not worldwide, since ToV EU release is still way off and probably doesn't fall into FY 2008 (that's what the expectations were for I think).

You seem to think sales could pick up during the holiday season. I already mentioned why I think sales won't pick up, what were your thoughts before you came to your conclusion that a sales increase is possible?

Ok you walked right into this one:
1. The sales of the game have picked up. Look at the chart in this very thread. It went from 33, to 21. The system was sold out. I predicted there was left over demand, and obviously there is. That is real. That is proof.
2. I never stated that the game would PICK UP in sales for the holidays, and if you can show me where I said that, I won't say you are putting words in my mouth. I only expect it to continue to sell and because ALL SALES across the ENTIRE industry do well during the holiday season, I expect the same for ToV.
3. I am also exersicing a little bit of freaking COMMON SENSE, that if the game SOLD over 200k in two markets in its first month of sales:

a. the shipment had to have been GREATER
b. You can safely estimated it to be around HALF. Would you consider that fair?
c. There will be additional shipments in these markets.
d. I said it still had to be released in Europe, and they WILL ship some over there too.

So having said that, after a month, the WORST CASE scenario looks to be at least a shipment of 300k, with plenty of time to go and additional markets to be released in.

And ToS GC sold more than double what ToV did - on the freaking Gamecube, in Japan! Plus it was a success in the US, again, on the Gamecube. Yes, comparing it to those titles I would indeed say ToV is a disappointment.

And with that statement you just destroyed every bit of credibility you had going for yourself and shown your Nintendo colored glasses. That applies to the GC, but not the 360, even though even the GC was much more of a success than the 360 in Japan?

Here I give up. This is what you want to hear:
1. So what if ToV had some decent sales, it still sucks compared to the other games. The 360 still sucks in Japan. It will crash and burn next week, and ToV is going to completely fall off the charts. It's a joke and it will always be a joke in Japan.

I HOPE and WISH the publisher shares MY viewpoint and is not happy with the results so they will stop supporting it and give MORE support to MY console of choice.

 

[jimbo]

Wrong. Wrong.

Wrong.

Enjoy your week jimbo, but don't spread bullshit thank you.

Those were his words. Not mine. If that's bullshit you should address it to whomever first brought it up.

 

[schuelma]

Well, at the very least, jimbo has made MC threads entertaining again :lol

Oh, and re:Wii sales...I know they are down a bit compared to last year, but they're actually more stable this Aug.-Sept. than they were last year. Last year was a case of demand not being met for the first 7-8 months of the year, leading to extremely high weekly sales, but was then followed by a rather large drop. If you look at Wii weekly sales from after the demand was met until now, I think it is doing pretty well. And don't forget, Wii Music, Animal Crossing, and Wii Sports Resort will all be here by Spring.

 

[jay]

Arguing over the 360's success in Japan is like arguing over the troop surge in Iraq. Yeah, I guess things are looking better than absolutely horrendous. Victory?

 

[jimbo]

Well, at the very least, jimbo has made MC threads entertaining again :lol

Oh, and re:Wii sales...I know they are down a bit compared to last year, but they're actually more stable this Aug.-Sept. than they were last year. Last year was a case of demand not being met for the first 7-8 months of the year, leading to extremely high weekly sales, but was then followed by a rather large drop. If you look at Wii weekly sales from after the demand was met until now, I think it is doing pretty well. And don't forget, Wii Music, Animal Crossing, and Wii Sports Resort will all be here by Spring.

I don't think it's me as much as the 360 doing well and there's a few of us that are genuinely happy about it. It seeems to upset a lot of people.

Arguing over the 360's success in Japan is like arguing over the troop surge in Iraq. Yeah, I guess things are looking better than absolutely horrendous. Victory?

Well apparently there are people that can't handle it doing anything positive and have to immediately turn it into something negative. It seems like the 360 failing so bad in Japan gives some people a sense of accomplishment and rightousness and just the idea that it may possibly find some fans in Japan is more than some people can stand.

 

[schuelma]

I don't think it's me as much as the 360 doing well and there's a few of us that are genuinely happy about it. It seeems to upset a lot of people.

You poor thing

 

[Pureauthor]

I don't think it's me as much as the 360 doing well and there's a few of us that are genuinely happy about it. It seeems to upset a lot of people.

The 360 doing well for a week I have no problems with. The rather odd idea that Namco is happy/satisfied with ToV sales, not so much.

Compared to previous main Tales entries, it's a massive, massive step down in sales in Japan.

 

[jimbo]

You poor thing

I am enjoying this while it lasts.

The 360 doing well for a week I have no problems with. The rather odd idea that Namco is happy/satisfied with ToV sales, not so much.

Compared to previous main Tales entries, it's a massive, massive step down in sales in Japan.

I have a hard time accepting everyone overlooking this point. NAMCO made their OWN lowered forecast.

It's like you guys are dictating what Namco should and shouldn't be happy with based on what the game COULD have sold on some other system or SHOULD have sold, not what NAMCO themselves said and NOT on what Namco expected from the 360. They KNEW what to expect before developing the game. I doubt their game plan was: Hey let's make a game, lower our sales forecast, and then be pissed off about it meeting a lower sales forecast that we ourselves set. That's a great IDEA!

 

[Pureauthor]

I have a hard time accepting everyone overlooking this point. NAMCO made their OWN lowered forecast.

It's like you guys are dictating what Namco should and shouldn't be happy with based on what the game COULD have sold on some other system or SHOULD have sold, not what NAMCO themselves said. They KNEW what to expect before developing the game. I doubt their game plan was: Hey let's make a game, lower our sales forecast, and then be pissed off about it meeting a lower sales forecast that we ourselves set. That's a great IDEA!

Two things - First, have they met said sales forecast?

Secondly, that Namco had to make a forecast significantly lowered from the norm is not a good thing in the first place! Series are ideally supposed to keep drawing in new audiences, or at least stagnate at a level where you've got a dependable group that more or less will keep up with them. The key to this is realizing just how big the core group is and dialing your budget to match this group's purchasing power. Any significant dips in the sales of a series, for whatever reason (such as moving to the lowest selling system in Japan) is problematic in the very first place.

 

[phez]

maybe finally LO will get some more exposure.

 

[Jonnyram]

Compared to previous main Tales entries, it's a massive, massive step down in sales in Japan.

Subsidized by the over-satisfactory sales of a cheapo Wii spin-off. So everyone's happy

 

[Scottlarock]

good job MS. this month MS will be beating PS3 in Europe, Japan and America, nice.

 

[PhatSaqs]

 

[Paracelsus]

Subsidized by the over-satisfactory sales of a cheapo Wii spin-off. So everyone's happy

Not really. 350-370k total copies are enough to substain dev costs of a low budget and a high budget Tales of?

In dreamland maybe, in reality maybe not even 750k would be enough to cover both.

 

[jgwhiteus]

Two things - First, have they met said sales forecast?

Secondly, that Namco had to make a forecast significantly lowered from the norm is not a good thing in the first place! Series are ideally supposed to keep drawing in new audiences, or at least stagnate at a level where you've got a dependable group that more or less will keep up with them. The key to this is realizing just how big the core group is and dialing your budget to match this group's purchasing power. Any significant dips in the sales of a series, for whatever reason (such as moving to the lowest selling system in Japan) is problematic in the very first place.

Well, I'm sure there were legitimate reasons for putting it exclusively on 360 with lowered forecasts, which were probably discussed extensively in other threads when it was announced - maybe they wanted to test the waters and see if they could establish a fanbase on the system, or invest in tech that could be used for later games? (and they thought a spinoff wouldn't be a fair indicator? Though making it multiplatform would have made the most sense in that case...who knows).

Whatever the rationale, the numbers just don't seem...that good. It was 33K first month in the US, admittedly with like a week of sales, but it's not exactly the type of game that has major legs. Even in Japan, when it drops, the numbers being pulled by games in the 20-30 range and below are pretty much statistical noise at this time of year - 2000-5000 copies/week on average. You could get away with those numbers on the DS and its lower costs - but an HD console mainline Tales game?

And I just don't see a big revival for ToV (or any other games coming out around now) in December. Only games I see faring better through December are the "evergreen" titles on the Wii and DS (since those two systems far and away got the biggest boosts last December) - e.g., Wii Sports, NSMB, the usual.

 

[Jonnyram]

Not really. 350-370k total copies are enough to substain dev costs of a low budget and a high budget Tales of?

In dreamland maybe, in reality maybe not even 750k would be enough to cover both.

It seems convenient that you also ignore the Marketplace DLC. Do you think this doesn't factor into Namco's business model?

 

[jimbo]

Two things - First, have they met said sales forecast?

Secondly, that Namco had to make a forecast significantly lowered from the norm is not a good thing in the first place! Series are ideally supposed to keep drawing in new audiences, or at least stagnate at a level where you've got a dependable group that more or less will keep up with them. The key to this is realizing just how big the core group is and dialing your budget to match this group's purchasing power. Any significant dips in the sales of a series, for whatever reason (such as moving to the lowest selling system in Japan) is problematic in the very first place.

It looks like they have in Japan and that was the main point I was arguing. And once again they knew this BEFORE they decided to go into development with this game. Of course better sales are better, but if that's what their expectations were BEFORE they invested time and money into it, OBVIOUSLY they believed it to be a worthy investment, otherwise....*gasp* ........they wouldnt have done it. Or they would have had higher forecasts.

 

[jimbo]

Not really. 350-370k total copies are enough to substain dev costs of a low budget and a high budget Tales of?

In dreamland maybe, in reality maybe not even 750k would be enough to cover both

Please break down for me how you came to this conclusion, because clearly you have the inside scoop and the rest of us are in the dark.

I'd like to know development cost,, shipping costs, marketing budget, inside benefits coming from whatever deal they had with Microsoft and the bundles, how much of the game's resources were from scratch, and exactly what number would they have to sell to break even, be profitable, and what kind of profit margin Namco is shooting for in order for them to be satisfied.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

We are always the World champions.

 

[Paracelsus]

It seems convenient that you also ignore the Marketplace DLC. Do you think this doesn't factor into Namco's business model?

Maybe I'm mistaking, but are you putting the DLC of Idolmaster on the same level of the DLC of Vesperia? Am I correct?

Please break down for me how you came to this conclusion, because clearly you have the inside scoop and the rest of us are in the dark.

No. I just have good sense, the one thing you're lacking right now.

I'd like to know development cost,, shipping costs, marketing budget, inside benefits coming from whatever deal they had with Microsoft and the bundles, how much of the game's resources were from scratch, and exactly what number would they have to sell to break even, be profitable, and what kind of profit margin Namco is shooting for in order for them to be satisfied.

Now, let me remind you what Namco's Takasu said some time ago, back in the year 2006:

Namco Bandai Holdings Inc. president Takeo Takasu has said in an interview that PS3 games must be a mass-market success. Games for the next-generation console cost an average of $8.6 million to create, according to Takasu, and need to sell 500,000 units before the developer can turn a profit.

Need to sell half a million before they can turn a profit.

So, let's assume 360 costs less to develop for. By how much?

They need to sell 400k before starting to turn a profit? When will that happen?

Dude, it's more about the "agreement", because they ain't turning a profit thanks to the game sales themselves any time soon.

If it was so convenient to develop for 360, not caring about see their games bombing, then MS wouldn't have to pay and everyone wouldn't be going multiplatform/running on DS.

Worst thing of this scenario, is that they wasted resources on an engine they probably won't be using for quite some time, since now it's Wii or die.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Can someone explain to me what the 'holiday season' is in Japan?

Big time tends to be from late November to early January, peaking in the last or next-to-last week of the year.

 

[jimbo]

Maybe I'm mistaking, but are you putting the DLC of Idolmaster on the same level of the DLC of Vesperia? Am I correct?



No. I just have good sense, the one thing you're lacking right now.



Now, let me remind you what Namco's Takasu said some time ago, back in the year 2006:



Need to sell half a million before they can turn a profit.

So, let's assume 360 costs less to develop for. By how much?

They need to sell 400k before starting to turn a profit? When will that happen?

Dude, it's more about the "agreement", because they ain't turning a profit thanks to the game sales themselves any time soon.

If it was so convenient to develop for 360, not caring about see their games bombing, then MS wouldn't have to pay and everyone wouldn't be going multiplatform/running on DS.

Worst thing of this scenario, is that they wasted resources on an engine they probably won't be using any time soon, since now it's Wii or die.

Well considering they have already shipped over 200k after its first month, I am going to predict and say they should be able to ship out 400k before the end of the year, if they aren't already on their way now. Since you know, games DO typically get re-stocked before they actually sell. But I am sure you will show me how or why it can't do it.

 

[Pureauthor]

Well considering they have already shipped over 200k after its first month, I am going to predict and say they should be able to ship out 400k before the end of the year, if they aren't already on their way now. Since you know, games DO typically get re-stocked before they actually sell. But I am sure you will show me how or why it can't do it.

In Japan, games are extremely front-loaded. In the Western regions, this is less so in general, but niche games (such as ToV) are usually more front loaded than most.

Also, turning a profit =/= a success. Eragon the movie turned a profit - it was not a success.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Ok you walked right into this one:
1. The sales of the game have picked up. Look at the chart in this very thread. It went from 33, to 21. The system was sold out. I predicted there was left over demand, and obviously there is. That is real. That is proof.

These charts are reflecting the US market now? Because that's what we were talking about (if you followed our discussion).

2. I never stated that the game would PICK UP in sales for the holidays, and if you can show me where I said that, I won't say you are putting words in my mouth. I only expect it to continue to sell and because ALL SALES across the ENTIRE industry do well during the holiday season, I expect the same for ToV.

Nor did I claim you have said that. Reading helps.

3. I am also exersicing a little bit of freaking COMMON SENSE, that if the game SOLD over 200k in two markets in its first month of sales:
a. the shipment had to have been GREATER
b. You can safely estimated it to be around HALF. Would you consider that fair?
c. There will be additional shipments in these markets.

If and how many additional shipments are being made depends entirely on how much the game sells. If it has shipped close to half a million already like you suggest, don't expect a lot of shipments too soon.

d. I said it still had to be released in Europe, and they WILL ship some over there too.

So having said that, after a month, the WORST CASE scenario looks to be at least a shipment of 300k, with plenty of time to go and additional markets to be released in.

As I said, afaik BN's expectations were for US/JP/A and the fiscal year 2008. I don't know what Europe has to do with this, because we are talking about the aforementioned expectations.

And with that statement you just destroyed every bit of credibility you had going for yourself and shown your Nintendo colored glasses. That applies to the GC, but not the 360, even though even the GC was much more of a success than the 360 in Japan?

Both are not successes by any stretch of the imagination. Maybe I'll have to spell it out for you. You're the one claiming ToV to be a success story, I'm merely pointing out why I don't consider it to be one. I never said that I consider ToS GC's Japan sales to be a success story either. If your line of thinking is - well for being on a catastrophe of a system that is the 360, ToV's sales are actually awesome then I don't really know what we are to celebrate here.

Here I give up. This is what you want to hear:
1. So what if ToV had some decent sales, it still sucks compared to the other games. The 360 still sucks in Japan. It will crash and burn next week, and ToV is going to completely fall off the charts. It's a joke and it will always be a joke in Japan.

I HOPE and WISH the publisher shares MY viewpoint and is not happy with the results so they will stop supporting it and give MORE support to MY console of choice.

As opposed to you I'm not emotionally invested, because I don't like JRPGs at all. From a gamer's perspective I couldn't care less where all the JRPGs end up. But this is a sales thread after all, so I don't see this as a problem when discussing sales.

I also said that I could see more of these types of games on 360 if software sales pick up, despite lackluster sales in the west. I have repeated that like 3 times now. But yeah, I want more SE and BN JRPGs on my console of choice :lol . Pathetic...

I have a hard time accepting everyone overlooking this point. NAMCO made their OWN lowered forecast.

It's like you guys are dictating what Namco should and shouldn't be happy with based on what the game COULD have sold on some other system or SHOULD have sold, not what NAMCO themselves said and NOT on what Namco expected from the 360. They KNEW what to expect before developing the game. I doubt their game plan was: Hey let's make a game, lower our sales forecast, and then be pissed off about it meeting a lower sales forecast that we ourselves set. That's a great IDEA!

I don't know how often this bears repeating: Sales in the west were to make up for the expected lackluster performance in Japan. Assuming 150k was their expectation in Japan, that would leave 350k for the US and Asia for fiscal 2008 (where is that number from btw. it wasn't in the financial statement where the 500k expectation was mentioned afaik). Further proof of this strategy (cope with lower Japanese sales and make up for it with higher western sales). Now with 33k sold-through in about week, knowing how frontloaded sales are, that doesn't seem very likely, now does it?

To sum it up once more: Sales in the japanese market were expected to be low, sales in the west were not expected to be low. Meeting sales expectations for Japan is of no use in this context if the sales in the US do not meet expectations.

 

[jimbo]

In Japan, games are extremely front-loaded. In the Western regions, this is less so in general, but niche games (such as ToV) are usually more front loaded than most.

Also, turning a profit =/= a success. Eragon the movie turned a profit - it was not a success.

You know? You are right. You are all right. Have a nice day.

 

[AnimeTheme]

If there is anything really wrong with Namco Bandai's strategy for ToV, it would be that they make it XB360-exclusive. If it was on PS3 as well, the LTD in Japan alone would at least be doubled. Don't give me the craps that PS3 game is hard to develop or they didn't have time to make a PS3 version because the project was greenlighted years ago when XB360 was the only choice. Just look at the game or actually play it. It is hardly a real HD-quality game (I wouldn't be too surprised if it was originally a PS2 project).

Of course, here we assume that MS didn't moneyhat NGBI to make it exclusive... which was highly unlikely.

 

[PantherLotus]

oh jimbo. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[HK-47]

You guys were just waiting for jimbo before you pounced. Poor guy

 

[FateBreaker]

there is so much conjecture going on in here....

also, bravo jimbo.

 

[Version 3.0]

I take it that MC is considered more accurate over the short term then. Do they have a history of misunderestimating the Wii?

Mr. President, is that you?

 

[Jokeropia]

Moreover, if all console sales are down, this is an even bigger concern as it suggests gamer apathy - something which Nintendo has often discussed and is deeply concerned with.

No, it simply means that we've entered the fall which is the slowest sales period of the year. Sales of all systems go down during this period, DS is just counteracting it with a surge of strong releases and 360 has a spike this week for obvious reasons.

Thanks, but I was looking for the weekly chart with PS2 and Wii's second year on top of each other. Maybe JoshauJStone will post it. Those numbers do show that Wii is not falling too far behind though.

Wii is still tracking ahead, PS2 has just made up some weeks lately because at this time after it's release, it had entered it's second (non-shortage) holiday season.

 

[PantherLotus]

You seem to be confusing the Blue Dragon bump with the 360's launch a year earlier. The chart above only begins at the Wii launch. The 360 launched in Japan Dec. 10, 2005, not at the end of 2006.

The week of Blue Dragon's release, the 360 sold 35,343 an increase of 31k over the previous week's 4,053, and followed that up with 17k, 17k, 16.9k, 18k, a better 5 week total (by about 15k) than the 360 launch itself. I'd call that a pretty big bump (at least by percentage).

You are absolutely right. I totally forgot it was out an entire year before Blue Dragon hit. Thank you. And yeah, a 200% bump is great.

 

[PantherLotus]

has jimbo actually made an assertion worth debating, or are we just trying to shit on optimism? i think i missed the beginning of the problem. point me to the problems with what he's saying.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Thanks, but I was looking for the weekly chart with PS2 and Wii's second year on top of each other. Maybe JoshauJStone will post it.

Hopefully I am close enough.

Due to Wii and PS2 launching at different times of year no one matchup is perfect, so here are a few ways of looking at it. Sticking with Famitsu for both since I don't have Media Create data going back to that period for PS2.

PS2 vs Wii, from launches, weekly. Looks like between PS2's FFX bump and holiday bump they've been pretty similar. Cumulatively Wii remains in the lead, though it's closer than before due to the non-aligned holiday periods as Jokeropia pointed out.

PS2 2001 vs Wii 2008, weekly. This matches approximately months 11-22 for PS2 with months 14-25 for Wii, but matches the times of year well. Looks like the first third has Wii decisively in the lead (lack of shortage), then a lot of similar weeks, then PS2 with a big lead recently due to FFX bump. Looking at the cumulative version of this time period, Wii is still a bit in the lead.

PS2 2002 vs Wii 2008, weekly. This one is a bit of a stretch, but it's here to provide an option where PS2 is the one that's been out longer. Approximately months 23-34 for PS2 and months 14-25 for Wii. In this comparison PS2 matches or exceeds Wii for most of the year, but particularly in the last two months. In the cumulative view, PS2 2002 is about a half million ahead of Wii 2008 so far.

 

[Rocksteady33]

has jimbo actually made an assertion worth debating, or are we just trying to shit on optimism? i think i missed the beginning of the problem. point me to the problems with what he's saying.

Something about how ToV apparently did well in Japan because the fiscal reports said they only anticipated 500k units worldwide (yet no one has even sourced this yet I don't think) and when you compare it to other Tales games in Japan the sales for ToV suck because a) it's an HD console so it must have high budget and b) it's not a spin-off it's a mainline game. Plus the 33k units in US don't point to the game making up sales elsewhere, unlike Tales of Symphonia which did great in both Japan and America.