According to Famitsu its debut was over 350K:sphinx said:
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/d689.html
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Media Create Sales 1/29 - 2/4
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
http://homepage2.nifty.com/~NOV/d689.html
kisakiproject
Member
When do you think we'll get first day numbers?
according to my math, 5 % of the PS2 install base bought VF4 on on launch week.
if we have a total of 612,861 install base on the PS3,
how much is 5% ??
30,643 units....
is that low?? I probably messed up my calculations anyway...
EDIT:
Going by this method which is only for fun and in no way should resemble the truth come next week, i'd say it is hard for the game to get anything above 100K, probably 80k is still high...
it should reach the top 10, my guess is anything between 6 and 10 with something around 30k - 50k.
if we have a total of 612,861 install base on the PS3,
how much is 5% ??
30,643 units....
is that low?? I probably messed up my calculations anyway...
EDIT:
Going by this method which is only for fun and in no way should resemble the truth come next week, i'd say it is hard for the game to get anything above 100K, probably 80k is still high...
it should reach the top 10, my guess is anything between 6 and 10 with something around 30k - 50k.
EphemeralDream
Member
That is too low. The PS3 is not selling to the same crowd in Japan as the PS2 was and most likely it is selling to the VF5 crowd. It'll likely do at least 100,000 launch week.
Cheesemeister
Member
Argh, almost forgot. Guess what's on my list of things to do this week.
Cheesemeister
Member
cvxfreak said:Cheese, can you add the DS+DSL and GBA+GBASP+GBm totals onto your chart?
One of many features to be added for next week...
Link said:
Because there's little else to play and 600k+ PS3 owners are itching for something good.
It'll be more thank 30k. You can't exactly go off VF4 to extrapolate numbers on VF5 because on a mature system with a good selection of games the tie ratio for a single game is going to be lower than one at launch when there are less games to choose from.
AdmiralViscen said:
Sony has already lost footing in every region with that price. Throw in established competition and a lack of great software and it's just a question of how much marketshare are you willing to lose? If the hardware wasn't all hype Sony will pull ahead eventually but it's days of market dominance are over. Right now every region is in question because of that price. There is the realistic possibility of them coming in last as well with devs and pubs losing confidence every day.
Christopher
Member
wait what cvx are you just going to go down like this? It just feels weird without you
EphemeralDream
Member
Link said:
My logic? Well I believe the top PS3 game has done over 100k and that was with a smaller userbase. That title was a Gundam game and VF5 carries more weight there. Also while PS3 was selling to a mixed crowd at first, most likely it is hardcore gamers still picking it up in Japan similar to 360 buyers. The "VF5 crowd" thing was worded badly but that is part of the hardcore crowd that is still picking up PS3s in Japan. I shouldn't have offered my prediction and I'm not usually the type to do so, but 30k is definitely too low. Gears of War did over 30k and that was on the 360 with a smaller userbase.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I guess I've just assumed most everyone is still spent from November and December. The farther away we get, the more things pick up. February is a pretty minor increase over January, though, right?Square2005 said:
At GCN's current rate, if PS2 stops selling, GCN catches up in 52,665.75 weeks: June 14, 3016. It's worth noting that Media Create and Famitsu differ by several decades on this matter; Famitsu has them meeting July 10, 3064.Cheesemeister said:
Pureauthor
Member
AniHawk said:
Yeah, they've these celebratory bonfires at the back of Nintendo HQ day in, day out. it's gotten so freaking massive the smoke has even reached Singapore.
Or maybe it was just the haze.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Somebody's going to bite on that, Ani.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
omg rite said:
he's being cute by using all of the other guys' comeback lines. look he did it again.
EphemeralDream
Member
NintendoAniHawk said:
They had a good run.
Cheesemeister
Member
Continuing at this rate of decline, the PS3 will start outselling the Wii during the week of 2/19 - 2/25. Returns of the Wii in the thousands to follow the week after.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
This Week Sales:
Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 10 total weeks:
360 - 2nd lowest week. Consistently Insignificant (TM) - following the 7k trend. Next Gen Avg = 13,849. Post Holiday Avg = 7,393.
Wii - lowest week ever. This week lower than the trend. Next Gen Avg = 144,457. Post Holiday Avg = 82,399.
PS3 - lowest week ever. Very consistent sales. Next Gen Avg = 45,646. Post Holiday Avg = 21,340.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
The 360's sales are so insignificant that their inclusion in the data tracking is almost insulting. At this point it's just a 3rd color on the chart and should never, ever be regarded as more than such. <---I'm not going to change this paragraph until 360 sales go above 30k for a week. (4th week)
The PS3 finally crossed the 600k barrier after 10 weeks. Even after a very bad week for the Wii (considering), the PS3 was still outsold 3.5-1 for the week and has been outsold 4x as much since the post-holiday season began (82k avg/21k avg = 3.86x). The PS3 is also now 800k units behind in only 10 weeks. VF5 will not make nearly as large of an impact as some are hoping, but should still increase hw sales up to around 30k for the week. We need titles, and we need them now.
The Wii definitely had a down week (down by almost 20k), and still outsold the PS3 3.5x. The next 4 weeks won't bring much to help this either, as it is almost always a slow time of the year. March looms huge. It will be interesting to see how a small title like Cooking Mama, which will be lucky to hit 20k, go up against a larger title like VF5 -- and see if (and how) each effects the hardware sales for the week.
Expectations for 02/05-02/12
360 - 7k
Wii - 65k <--- I am expecting a lower average for the next month
PS3 - 29k <--- VF5 will bump it up one week, but it will sink back down the following week.
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
Significant Notes:
1. Wii has an 800k lead on PS3 in 10 weeks.
2. The PS3 has never been closer week-to-week with the Wii than 20k units, and 45k units this year.
3. The PS3 hasn't sold more than 76k units in one week since launch.
4. The Wii hasn't sold less than 65k units in one week since launch.
5. The PS3 just had its 6th consecutive week with lesser sales than the week before.
6. The Wii just had its 4th consecutive week with lesser sales than the week before.
7. The PS3 has never come closer than 28% market share.
8. The Wii hasn't lost market share since it went on sale.
Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 10 total weeks:
360 - 2nd lowest week. Consistently Insignificant (TM) - following the 7k trend. Next Gen Avg = 13,849. Post Holiday Avg = 7,393.
Wii - lowest week ever. This week lower than the trend. Next Gen Avg = 144,457. Post Holiday Avg = 82,399.
PS3 - lowest week ever. Very consistent sales. Next Gen Avg = 45,646. Post Holiday Avg = 21,340.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
The 360's sales are so insignificant that their inclusion in the data tracking is almost insulting. At this point it's just a 3rd color on the chart and should never, ever be regarded as more than such. <---I'm not going to change this paragraph until 360 sales go above 30k for a week. (4th week)
The PS3 finally crossed the 600k barrier after 10 weeks. Even after a very bad week for the Wii (considering), the PS3 was still outsold 3.5-1 for the week and has been outsold 4x as much since the post-holiday season began (82k avg/21k avg = 3.86x). The PS3 is also now 800k units behind in only 10 weeks. VF5 will not make nearly as large of an impact as some are hoping, but should still increase hw sales up to around 30k for the week. We need titles, and we need them now.
The Wii definitely had a down week (down by almost 20k), and still outsold the PS3 3.5x. The next 4 weeks won't bring much to help this either, as it is almost always a slow time of the year. March looms huge. It will be interesting to see how a small title like Cooking Mama, which will be lucky to hit 20k, go up against a larger title like VF5 -- and see if (and how) each effects the hardware sales for the week.
Expectations for 02/05-02/12
360 - 7k
Wii - 65k <--- I am expecting a lower average for the next month
PS3 - 29k <--- VF5 will bump it up one week, but it will sink back down the following week.
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share History:
Code:
[B][U]Date____ 360 Wii PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
[B]01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%[/B]Significant Notes:
1. Wii has an 800k lead on PS3 in 10 weeks.
2. The PS3 has never been closer week-to-week with the Wii than 20k units, and 45k units this year.
3. The PS3 hasn't sold more than 76k units in one week since launch.
4. The Wii hasn't sold less than 65k units in one week since launch.
5. The PS3 just had its 6th consecutive week with lesser sales than the week before.
6. The Wii just had its 4th consecutive week with lesser sales than the week before.
7. The PS3 has never come closer than 28% market share.
8. The Wii hasn't lost market share since it went on sale.
Ynos Yrros
Banned
Ynos Yrros said:
Wow, noodles almost never lie.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
PantherLotus said:
Well I knew we were down, but I didn't know it would be by that much. Interesting note is that it was almost all Nintendo selling less, while the other two sold very consistently with their post-holiday average. Is it shortages? Who knows. DQS is coming. That will be huge.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Cross examination
I have here a copy of your post.
OBJECTION!PantherLotus said:
I have here a copy of your post.
You... INCONSISTENTLY ROUNDED PS3's 28.51%!PantherLotus said:
PantherLotus said:
If some of the thread posters living in Japan are to be believed, then Nintendo is still facing massive shortages of the hardware (i.e. they've sold everything they've shipped). What I'd conjure that means is that either they are reallocating shipments more - like sending more the NA - or building up a small bit of stock for certain big game releases?
Pud said:If some of the thread posters living in Japan are to be believed, then Nintendo is still facing massive shortages of the hardware (i.e. they've sold everything they've shipped). What I'd conjure that means is that either they are reallocating shipments more - like sending more the NA - or building up a small bit of stock for certain big game releases?
Maybe their goal is to sell more in the earlier weeks of the month, then the last week of the month gets whatever shipment is left?
Let's have another session with Blue Ocean Strategy:
Wrongly, Nintendo's strategy is summed up with making a few games to keep the Nintendo fans happy (the Marios and Zelda) while focusing on non-gamers. Actually, this is what Sony's strategy closest resembles where they make some games for the hardcore (like God of War) and games for casuals (Singstar or the rubber duckies). Blue Ocean Strategy is focused on building commonality, not segmentation.
We have been using only one term for noncustomers: just "non-gamers". It's time for that to change...
The graphic shown in Blue Ocean Strategy is the first tier on the edge of the first circle, with an outer circle for tier two and another outer circle for tier three. It looks like rings within rings with the traditional market being a small circle in the center.
So who qualifies as the first tier for video games? These are people who WANT to play but, for some reason, they can't. This is either because changes are occuring in real life which means they no longer have the time or they are finding games boring. Tier One are people who are about to leave gaming or have essentially left.
These are the lapsed gamers and casual gamers. Bored gamers are on the edge of the market. They are in danger of becoming lapsed. Casual gamers have the problem that games kept getting increasingly complex and time consuming.
All it takes is a leap of value and these 'soon-to-be' noncustomers become tomorrow's early adopters (such as the launch of Wii or DS Lite). These noncustomers are the easiest to 'tap'.
Using the DS as example for illustrating the tier system, there are several DS games that hit the nail on the head for casual/lapsed gamers.
Gamers who started with the 8-bit or 16-bit generation started with 2d Mario. Nintendo has not made a new 2d Mario game in fifteen years. New Super Mario Brothers shot up in sales because of these tier one noncustomers. Casual gamers love NSMB as well. When I saw NSMB at E3 2005, I ran out and bought a DS (such is the pull of 2d Mario).
This is an interesting example. Yoshi's Island DS sold more than it should last holiday with no major marketing or anything surrounding it. Much of the drive of people who bought Yoshi's Island DS were from those who loved the original on the SNES (released fifteen years ago).
Mario Kart DS was designed specifically against the SNES version of Super Mario Kart. Why did Nintendo choose the SNES version as the metric for the Mario Kart DS? The N64 and Gamecube Mario Karts sold extremely well so why use the SNES version? If Nintendo did not use the SNES version, it would have segmented the tier one noncustomers. Focusing on delivering a successor to the fifteen year old title, rather than the three year old Mario Kart DD, Nintendo was able to create demand for Mario Kart DS along the Tier One non-customers.
This tier consists of those the industry WANTS and has TRIED to get but these noncustomers refuse to join in. Who does this qualify for video games? Females. The games industry has been targeting females intensely but, aside from the Sims and Myst, females do not adopt gaming in mass. Two games were able to pull in the tier two noncustomers:
When Nintendogs was released, it suddenly boosted DS sales above the PSP. Obviously, Nintendogs unlocked a new demand. Pink DSes were bundled with Nintendogs, and they kept selling out everywhere. Nintendogs is one of the biggest selling games of recent time which shows how huge tier two is.
Animal Crossing DS, when released, created a sensation in Japan which triggered the DS sell-outs. Why didn't Animal Crossing do this for Gamecube? I have no idea. But no one can ignore the sales of Animal Crossing DS as it outsold traditional Japanese RPGs. The traditional Japanese rpg gaming audience is clearly outnumbered by tier two of noncustomers.
In video games, who were the people that the industry thought would NEVER buy their games? The old people. Everyone in the gaming industry thought old people would never be reached with video games, so they were never explored.
Brain Age is a good example of how Nintendo reached tier 3.
So what about the Wii? I believe Twilight Princess has reached Tier One (which explains its explosive sales in the West). Wii Sports is the big question. It has definately reached Tier Two but has it reached Tier Three? Either way, Wii Sports eruption can be seen in Japanese sales and in the Wii sales everywhere else (especially with all the multiple controller sales).
What unexplored noncustomers will Nintendo aim at next? I believe there is a huge potential for the business office (Wii appearing in offices? You better believe it. Wii Sports has pushed the system somewhat there but more software can push it further). Health games are also another major unexplored noncustomer base that Nintendo could aim at.
Blue Ocean Strategy said:
Wrongly, Nintendo's strategy is summed up with making a few games to keep the Nintendo fans happy (the Marios and Zelda) while focusing on non-gamers. Actually, this is what Sony's strategy closest resembles where they make some games for the hardcore (like God of War) and games for casuals (Singstar or the rubber duckies). Blue Ocean Strategy is focused on building commonality, not segmentation.
We have been using only one term for noncustomers: just "non-gamers". It's time for that to change...
Blue Ocean Strategy said:
The graphic shown in Blue Ocean Strategy is the first tier on the edge of the first circle, with an outer circle for tier two and another outer circle for tier three. It looks like rings within rings with the traditional market being a small circle in the center.
So who qualifies as the first tier for video games? These are people who WANT to play but, for some reason, they can't. This is either because changes are occuring in real life which means they no longer have the time or they are finding games boring. Tier One are people who are about to leave gaming or have essentially left.
These are the lapsed gamers and casual gamers. Bored gamers are on the edge of the market. They are in danger of becoming lapsed. Casual gamers have the problem that games kept getting increasingly complex and time consuming.
All it takes is a leap of value and these 'soon-to-be' noncustomers become tomorrow's early adopters (such as the launch of Wii or DS Lite). These noncustomers are the easiest to 'tap'.
Using the DS as example for illustrating the tier system, there are several DS games that hit the nail on the head for casual/lapsed gamers.
Gamers who started with the 8-bit or 16-bit generation started with 2d Mario. Nintendo has not made a new 2d Mario game in fifteen years. New Super Mario Brothers shot up in sales because of these tier one noncustomers. Casual gamers love NSMB as well. When I saw NSMB at E3 2005, I ran out and bought a DS (such is the pull of 2d Mario).
This is an interesting example. Yoshi's Island DS sold more than it should last holiday with no major marketing or anything surrounding it. Much of the drive of people who bought Yoshi's Island DS were from those who loved the original on the SNES (released fifteen years ago).
Mario Kart DS was designed specifically against the SNES version of Super Mario Kart. Why did Nintendo choose the SNES version as the metric for the Mario Kart DS? The N64 and Gamecube Mario Karts sold extremely well so why use the SNES version? If Nintendo did not use the SNES version, it would have segmented the tier one noncustomers. Focusing on delivering a successor to the fifteen year old title, rather than the three year old Mario Kart DD, Nintendo was able to create demand for Mario Kart DS along the Tier One non-customers.
Blue Ocean Strategy said:
This tier consists of those the industry WANTS and has TRIED to get but these noncustomers refuse to join in. Who does this qualify for video games? Females. The games industry has been targeting females intensely but, aside from the Sims and Myst, females do not adopt gaming in mass. Two games were able to pull in the tier two noncustomers:
When Nintendogs was released, it suddenly boosted DS sales above the PSP. Obviously, Nintendogs unlocked a new demand. Pink DSes were bundled with Nintendogs, and they kept selling out everywhere. Nintendogs is one of the biggest selling games of recent time which shows how huge tier two is.
Animal Crossing DS, when released, created a sensation in Japan which triggered the DS sell-outs. Why didn't Animal Crossing do this for Gamecube? I have no idea. But no one can ignore the sales of Animal Crossing DS as it outsold traditional Japanese RPGs. The traditional Japanese rpg gaming audience is clearly outnumbered by tier two of noncustomers.
Blue Ocean Strategy said:
In video games, who were the people that the industry thought would NEVER buy their games? The old people. Everyone in the gaming industry thought old people would never be reached with video games, so they were never explored.
Brain Age is a good example of how Nintendo reached tier 3.
So what about the Wii? I believe Twilight Princess has reached Tier One (which explains its explosive sales in the West). Wii Sports is the big question. It has definately reached Tier Two but has it reached Tier Three? Either way, Wii Sports eruption can be seen in Japanese sales and in the Wii sales everywhere else (especially with all the multiple controller sales).
What unexplored noncustomers will Nintendo aim at next? I believe there is a huge potential for the business office (Wii appearing in offices? You better believe it. Wii Sports has pushed the system somewhat there but more software can push it further). Health games are also another major unexplored noncustomer base that Nintendo could aim at.
Lapsed said:Let's have another session with Blue Ocean Strategy:
Wrongly, Nintendo's strategy is summed up with making a few games to keep the Nintendo fans happy (the Marios and Zelda) while focusing on non-gamers. Actually, this is what Sony's strategy closest resembles where they make some games for the hardcore (like God of War) and games for casuals (Singstar or the rubber duckies). Blue Ocean Strategy is focused on building commonality, not segmentation.
We have been using only one term for noncustomers: just "non-gamers". It's time for that to change...
The graphic shown in Blue Ocean Strategy is the first tier on the edge of the first circle, with an outer circle for tier two and another outer circle for tier three. It looks like rings within rings with the traditional market being a small circle in the center.
So who qualifies as the first tier for video games? These are people who WANT to play but, for some reason, they can't. This is either because changes are occuring in real life which means they no longer have the time or they are finding games boring. Tier One are people who are about to leave gaming or have essentially left.
These are the lapsed gamers and casual gamers. Bored gamers are on the edge of the market. They are in danger of becoming lapsed. Casual gamers have the problem that games kept getting increasingly complex and time consuming.
All it takes is a leap of value and these 'soon-to-be' noncustomers become tomorrow's early adopters (such as the launch of Wii or DS Lite). These noncustomers are the easiest to 'tap'.
Using the DS as example for illustrating the tier system, there are several DS games that hit the nail on the head for casual/lapsed gamers.
Gamers who started with the 8-bit or 16-bit generation started with 2d Mario. Nintendo has not made a new 2d Mario game in fifteen years. New Super Mario Brothers shot up in sales because of these tier one noncustomers. Casual gamers love NSMB as well. When I saw NSMB at E3 2005, I ran out and bought a DS (such is the pull of 2d Mario).
This is an interesting example. Yoshi's Island DS sold more than it should last holiday with no major marketing or anything surrounding it. Much of the drive of people who bought Yoshi's Island DS were from those who loved the original on the SNES (released fifteen years ago).
Mario Kart DS was designed specifically against the SNES version of Super Mario Kart. Why did Nintendo choose the SNES version as the metric for the Mario Kart DS? The N64 and Gamecube Mario Karts sold extremely well so why use the SNES version? If Nintendo did not use the SNES version, it would have segmented the tier one noncustomers. Focusing on delivering a successor to the fifteen year old title, rather than the three year old Mario Kart DD, Nintendo was able to create demand for Mario Kart DS along the Tier One non-customers.
This tier consists of those the industry WANTS and has TRIED to get but these noncustomers refuse to join in. Who does this qualify for video games? Females. The games industry has been targeting females intensely but, aside from the Sims and Myst, females do not adopt gaming in mass. Two games were able to pull in the tier two noncustomers:
When Nintendogs was released, it suddenly boosted DS sales above the PSP. Obviously, Nintendogs unlocked a new demand. Pink DSes were bundled with Nintendogs, and they kept selling out everywhere. Nintendogs is one of the biggest selling games of recent time which shows how huge tier two is.
Animal Crossing DS, when released, created a sensation in Japan which triggered the DS sell-outs. Why didn't Animal Crossing do this for Gamecube? I have no idea. But no one can ignore the sales of Animal Crossing DS as it outsold traditional Japanese RPGs. The traditional Japanese rpg gaming audience is clearly outnumbered by tier two of noncustomers.
In video games, who were the people that the industry thought would NEVER buy their games? The old people. Everyone in the gaming industry thought old people would never be reached with video games, so they were never explored.
Brain Age is a good example of how Nintendo reached tier 3.
So what about the Wii? I believe Twilight Princess has reached Tier One (which explains its explosive sales in the West). Wii Sports is the big question. It has definately reached Tier Two but has it reached Tier Three? Either way, Wii Sports eruption can be seen in Japanese sales and in the Wii sales everywhere else (especially with all the multiple controller sales).
What unexplored noncustomers will Nintendo aim at next? I believe there is a huge potential for the business office (Wii appearing in offices? You better believe it. Wii Sports has pushed the system somewhat there but more software can push it further). Health games are also another major unexplored noncustomer base that Nintendo could aim at.
more correctly from http://blog.livedoor.jp/neoplay/
PS3 VF5 ~32k 37%
DS Luminous Arc ~19k 49%
DS Jet Impulse ~2.4k 12%
PS2 Outrun2SP ~2.9k 32%
PSP MOH:H ~3.5k 26%
PS3 VF5 ~32k 37%
DS Luminous Arc ~19k 49%
DS Jet Impulse ~2.4k 12%
PS2 Outrun2SP ~2.9k 32%
PSP MOH:H ~3.5k 26%
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Er...I don't know what to say at this point...
I guess next-gen sweet spot is 30k. They are always the same people buying next-gen games, no matter what game...next-gen games = 30k
:lol
I guess next-gen sweet spot is 30k. They are always the same people buying next-gen games, no matter what game...next-gen games = 30k
:lol
marvelharvey
Member
That was one excellent informative post.Lapsed said:
And wow at VF5s 30k