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[JoshuaJSlone]

If people bought it for media then stoped using it, i would think they would at least buy games to make use of the investment no?

No, I don't think that's necessarily a logical step. If I buy a product not caring about Feature X, then also stop caring about Feature Y, I don't go back and spend more money to use Feature X even though I never cared about it.

 

[antiloop]

If these charts show anything, its that the Japanese game industry is alive and well, good times for everyone.

Nice. I want more JRPG:s on the home consoles. Make it happen Japan.

 

[Kosma]

*blatantly crosses fingers*

 

[Anth]

No, I don't think that's necessarily a logical step. If I buy a product not caring about Feature X, then also stop caring about Feature Y, I don't go back and spend more money to use Feature X even though I never cared about it.

Unless there is lots of hype/ads/media coverage for Feature X and you remember you have already bought the product. You probably wouldn't spend lots of money for it unless the hype is really strong, so I guess that scenario could apply for people buying Wii Fit later on, but not for people suddenly buying dozens of PSP games.

 

[Stumpokapow]

No, I don't think that's necessarily a logical step. If I buy a product not caring about Feature X, then also stop caring about Feature Y, I don't go back and spend more money to use Feature X even though I never cared about it.

Except for lunatic fanboys. "Lair is awesome!" "Pac 'n' Roll is a pretty good game." "What drought? The Godfather Wii is sweet." Hell, there are some poor souls around these parts still insisting that UMDs are cool and if they'd have been $15 instead of $20, they'd have really taken off.

If people bought it for media then stoped using it, i would think they would at least buy games to make use of the investment no? Piracy is so easy on the PSP, that its pretty obious its a big part as to why its software sales are so mediocre. Imagine if the media was solid state and didnt need memory sticks? PSP software would be doing so much better.

On the other hand, piracy has also been easy for a whole lot of consoles--the NES era was filled with bootleg carts, the GBA is filled with bootleg carts, the PSX could be modded with a GameShark that costs as little as a pre-paid pandora battery or a 4+ gig stick or a srping mod that's pretty easy... and the whopper: piracy is even easier on the DS.

The fact remains that on both the DS and the PSP, the equipment required to start pirating (either an R4 or a memory stick) costs around the same or just a little bit more than one game.

Furthermore, I'd argue that in terms of technical accessibility, an R4 requires no expertise and never needs to be upgraded to defeat updates. Custom Firmware is a maze; how do I get from 3.40 OE-A to 3.71? Well, you install 3.51 M33, then 3.51 M33-4, then 3.71 M33, then 3.71 M33-2, then you install the 1.5 kernel release 2. Also, each of these steps requires downloading, renaming, and putting files in specific folders. All of this is explained in either AOL speak or grade 5 level English as a Second Language, depending on where you get your firmware from. The sheer number of non-pirate CFW users in the GAF CFW thread asking "How the fuck do I do this?" should indicate that there are technical obstacles here.

DS ROMs come in packs of 100 or more. PSP ISOs are individual. Even the biggest PSP memory sticks can only store 5-8 games. R4s store substantially more. Everything about DS piracy is more convenient.

For the PSP slim, it's even tougher because you actually need to do the Pandora battery which requires either knowing a ring of people passing one around, knowing someone with a PSP fat, or spending extra money.

Why are DS software sales so much better? Why can we explain the PSP's failure in terms of piracy while not simultaneously noticing its impact on another system where it's just as easy?

For that matter, how can we explain that PSP software sales were anemic before awareness of piracy and CFW were widespread? What caused poor sales back in the day where it took days to get a PSP piracy-ready and ISOs were few and far between? Is it possible that this factor (take your pick--unappealing games, people using their devices for media functionality, people not using their devices at all, games too high in price versus competition, PSP is a second machine to another portable games machine or media device and thus gets second fiddle in purchase priority except for AAA titles) is still an issue?

 

[felipeko]

This X and Y things works on the DS also.. Many people bought it for Brain Age and stuff like that.. But since they already had it, loved it, and played it, they bought more games to try..

But if they don't like the machine all that much (wich is what Stumpokapow may be implying), i don't think they would be willing to try anything...

 

[Lightning]

Yes but for the past year the PS3 is seen as the "Blu-Ray player". Will it get rid of this stigma? One can only hope.

For Sony's sake it better because software is where the money is made and as a Blu-ray player the PS3 doesn't sell software. :lol

Sony are at least trying to shake that though and get on the games side of things. I am eager to see how Assassins Creed and COD4 sold on the PS3 this month in the NPD.... it should tell the story if it's helping or not.

 

[dionysus]

Joshua, I think if you compiled all your charts and analysis from all the MC threads, you could probably right a dissertation that would get you a PhD in marketing or economics or something.

Bravo man, bravo.

 

[Grecco]

and the whopper: piracy is even easier on the DS

People keep repeating this. I dont buy it. It wasnt until what last week till the R4 article came out and people found out about it. Hell i didnt know about it till that. Not only that i cant just run into Walgreens or Compusa and pickup an R4 like i can buy a Memory stick

What caused poor sales back in the day

Im pretty sure Software sales were much healthyer in the begining of the PSP life span, compare the First GTA for instance to the seccond.

 

[Link316]

The Wii version hasn't showed up on Amazon while the PS2 version did. Both are going to sell low numbers though (uuh or not). Capcom is expecting 200k worldwide from the Wii version.

the PS2 version was also sold out @ Play Asia since day one

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This X and Y things works on the DS also.. Many people bought it for Brain Age and stuff like that.. But since they already had it, loved it, and played it, they bought more games to try..

I think the barrier from one type of game to another is much less than from a completely different media. I know people who started on Brain Age and gravitated towards things like Zoo Keeper or Ace Attorney. But going from playing music to buying a game is changing mediums completely.

Joshua, I think if you compiled all your charts and analysis from all the MC threads, you could probably right a dissertation that would get you a PhD in marketing or economics or something.

Bravo man, bravo.

Oh yeah. A true doctorate of spin!

 

[spwolf]

People keep repeating this. I dont buy it. It wasnt until what last week till the R4 article came out and people found out about it. Hell i didnt know about it till that. Not only that i cant just run into Walgreens or Compusa and pickup an R4 like i can buy a Memory stick



Im pretty sure Software sales were much healthyer in the begining of the PSP life span, compare the First GTA for instance to the seccond.

for how long is R4 avail? I never knew about it before last week?

 

[Kosma]

For Sony's sake it better because software is where the money is made and as a Blu-ray player the PS3 doesn't sell software. :lol

Sony are at least trying to shake that though and get on the games side of things. I am eager to see how Assassins Creed and COD4 sold on the PS3 this month in the NPD.... it should tell the story if it's helping or not.

In Europe PS3 software sales are doing pretty damn good, so I guess it's working already. Japan is doing better too it seems. Only US left.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Wii needs Wiifit ASAP in Japan. If WiiFit doesn't boost sales, you can put a fork in the Wii. Its done.

 

[felipeko]

for how long is R4 avail? I never knew about it before last week?

I don't know about R4, but here in Brazil DS piracy was already avaliable a long ago..

The same goes for Wii, X360, PS2 and PSP (and PS1 actually was almost impossible to find a non-modded one here).
The consoles i know people didn't really pirate were N64, GC and now PS3.

 

[sprsk]

Wii needs Wiifit ASAP in Japan. If WiiFit doesn't boost sales, you can put a fork in the Wii. Its done.

Please stop polluting this thread with reactionary gibberish. If you aren't going talk about the numbers seriously don't waste your time.

 

[Elios83]

In Europe PS3 software sales are doing pretty damn good, so I guess it's working already. Japan is doing better too it seems. Only US left.

In the US the tie ratio is pretty good too, 2.5. It's just that the system is doing much less than the competition because it's in a competitive disadvantage and so everything is put in a bad light.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Please stop polluting this thread with reactionary gibberish. If you aren't going talk about the numbers seriously don't waste your time.

Okay so maybe the Wii wouldn't be "done" but if WiiFit doesn't boost sales that much then the PS3 will become the sales leader in Japan by the end of next year. Lets face it. PS3 has momentum now. SMG did nothing for Wii sales. And this price drop that Japan had seems to be the price Japan was waiting for. So this isn't a reactionary gibberish. But like I said, we need to wait for WiiFit numbers and console sales in a couple weeks before we can make any true analysis

 

[Kosma]

It's interesting to see that the R4 article, that wasn't really news in the first place has sparked of discussion in how far piracy is affecting software sales and on which platforms.

For the past three gens I can say this about the availability of piracy in Europe:

N64 - none
PS1 - rampant
Saturn - none (?)

GC - none
PS2- rampant
Xbox - rampant

PS3 - none
Wii - some, newer models harder to mod
360 - some, focus on online makes modding less attractive
DS - rampant, everybody does it it seems
PSP - rampant, everybody does it it seems

Could anyone say how this model applies to Japan?

 

[tanod]

^^ Probably has to do with the disc format if you think about it.

 

[Rocksteady33]

"Pac 'n' Roll is a pretty good game."

What are you talking about? Pac'n Roll came out right when the DS came out of the drought (the Nintendogs + Advance Wars hit). If anything it was overlooked, and it's a damn shame. Pac'n Roll to this day is still in my top five games for the DS, and anyone who claims it's a bad game is just dumb.

 

[sprsk]

Okay so maybe the Wii wouldn't be "done" but if WiiFit doesn't boost sales that much then the PS3 will become the sales leader in Japan by the end of next year. Lets face it. PS3 has momentum now. SMG did nothing for Wii sales. And this price drop that Japan had seems to be the price Japan was waiting for. So this isn't a reactionary gibberish. But like I said, we need to wait for WiiFit numbers and console sales in a couple weeks before we can make any true analysis

One game clearly does not decide anything.

 

[gkryhewy]

So this isn't a reactionary gibberish.

No, he was right, it is.

 

[Anth]

Okay so maybe the Wii wouldn't be "done" but if WiiFit doesn't boost sales that much then the PS3 will become the sales leader in Japan by the end of next year. Lets face it. PS3 has momentum now. SMG did nothing for Wii sales. And this price drop that Japan had seems to be the price Japan was waiting for. So this isn't a reactionary gibberish. But like I said, we need to wait for WiiFit numbers and console sales in a couple weeks before we can make any true analysis

The PS3 sold better for two whole weeks, and not even much better. Given that the Wii still has a very sizeable lead, it would need quite a long time to catch it.

And even then, second place wouldn't mean "it's done". The Wii is still ahead of the PS2 in Japan.

 

[Atreides]

It's interesting to see that the R4 article, that wasn't really news in the first place has sparked of discussion in how far piracy is affecting software sales and on which platforms.

For the past three gens I can say this about the availability of piracy in Europe:

N64 - none
PS1 - rampant
Saturn - none (?)

GC - none
PS2- rampant
Xbox - rampant

PS3 - none
Wii - some, newer models harder to mod
360 - some, focus on online makes modding less attractive
DS - rampant, everybody does it it seems
PSP - rampant, everybody does it it seems

Could anyone say how this model applies to Japan?

There is piracy in GC, too. I have seen it. (I live in Spain).

 

[perfectchaos007]

One game clearly does not decide anything.

Right but if WiiFit can't do the trick what can? Do you think Smash could be bigger?

 

[sprsk]

Right but if WiiFit can't do the trick what can? Do you think Smash could be bigger?

Who knows?

There's no doubt Smash will be huge, either way.

 

[avatar299]

Who knows?

There's no doubt Smash will be huge, either way.

Yeah, but on which side of the ocean?

 

[Bookey]

both?

 

[Penguin]

And I mean Nintendo still has other options.

Price drops.
New colors.
Revamped Wii.
Pack-ins.

 

[jesusraz]

Yeah, but on which side of the ocean?

Considering people were willing to pick up a Wii purely for Dragon Quest Swords earlier this year, are you honestly thinking the same won't be true, to an even greater extent, with Smash Bros.?

 

[Anth]

Right but if WiiFit can't do the trick what can? Do you think Smash could be bigger?

At the current rate, the PS3 needs more than 16 years to catch up to the Wii.

If Sony wants to surpass the Wii, it needs to catch up in a year or so. That would require selling 47,596 consoles more than the Wii every week. Even if the Wii would suddenly be pulled from the market, that seems unlikely.

Just to give you an impression just how big Nintendo's lead is. Never mind the fact that the Wii has been profitable all along, so Nintendo could easily price drop it a couple of times, if deemed necessary. The PS3 won't have that luxury for some time.

 

[elostyle]

Right but if WiiFit can't do the trick what can? Do you think Smash could be bigger?

They haven't announced new stuff for a while, so who know what else may be coming soon.

 

[perfectchaos007]

They haven't announced new stuff for a while, so who know what else may be coming soon.

Wii need Animal Crossing

 

[kassatsu]

Wii needs Wiifit ASAP in Japan. If WiiFit doesn't boost sales, you can put a fork in the Wii. Its done.

Do you really think people are like, I am not going to buy a Wii until WiiFit is released. I don't think the bump will be as big as all of you are thinking it will be.

 

[Parl]

Okay so maybe the Wii wouldn't be "done" but if WiiFit doesn't boost sales that much then the PS3 will become the sales leader in Japan by the end of next year. Lets face it. PS3 has momentum now. SMG did nothing for Wii sales. And this price drop that Japan had seems to be the price Japan was waiting for. So this isn't a reactionary gibberish. But like I said, we need to wait for WiiFit numbers and console sales in a couple weeks before we can make any true analysis

If by "Japan" you mean ~100k more people, then yeah. A temporary sales increase after a price drop and the release of a big franchise game both at the same time?! OMFG! Why did that happen?!

PES didn't increase sales at all, but it most likely created new demand, so the off set would be that demand due to the price drop + Dynasty Warriors went down the week after, and thus, like many a price drops, the highest point of the demand surge from the price drop is in the first week.

I think people are trying to create a pattern out of nothing.

 

[spwolf]

If Sony wants to surpass the Wii, it needs to catch up in a year or so. That would require selling 47,596 consoles more than the Wii every week. Even if the Wii would suddenly be pulled from the market, that seems unlikely.

Good ol "catch up" story... well look here, few months ago we laughed at it and now we are applying it.

Fact we are even discussing it tells a lot. Who knows what will happen in a year or two? Nobody. Current rates are just that - current. It might matter for trending, but we will know that after few months, and not after few weeks.

 

[perfectchaos007]

If by "Japan" you mean ~100k more people, then yeah. A temporary sales increase after a price drop and the release of a big franchise game both at the same time?! OMFG! Why did that happen?!

PES didn't increase sales at all, but it most likely created new demand, so the off set would be that demand due to the price drop + Dynasty Warriors went down the week after, and thus, like many a price drops, the highest point of the demand surge from the price drop is in the first week.

I think people are trying to create a pattern out of nothing.

3 weeks in a row out selling Wii is starting something...

 

[Grampa Simpson]

It's interesting to see that the R4 article, that wasn't really news in the first place has sparked of discussion in how far piracy is affecting software sales and on which platforms.

For the past three gens I can say this about the availability of piracy in Europe:

N64 - none
PS1 - rampant
Saturn - none (?)

GC - none
PS2- rampant
Xbox - rampant

PS3 - none
Wii - some, newer models harder to mod
360 - some, focus on online makes modding less attractive
DS - rampant, everybody does it it seems
PSP - rampant, everybody does it it seems

Could anyone say how this model applies to Japan?

The N64, Saturn, and GC all had piracy. The Doctor V64 was pretty big for that, but the games were small enough, that most of the trafficking happened over the internet. Both the GC and the Saturn had mod chips available, but neither system was popular enough that you'd know about it if you weren't in the 'scene'.

Also, this video is really neat on the subject. The guy has an awesome accent.

On the subject of the DS, I expect that the next generation model will have continue to not have a memory card slot, and will have improved anti-piracy measures.

 

[iidesuyo]

3 weeks in a row out selling Wii is starting something...

Yeah... half a year ago one would have been LOLed at if one suggested that the PS3 outsells the Wii three times in a row (if Famitsu numbers are right), this at a time shortly after the release of SMG. Just like a year ago people were laughed at if they predicted the Wii destroying PS3 in summer 2007. But both happened. The Japanese are changing their minds and tastes very quickly.

 

[spwolf]

Yeah... half a year ago one would have been LOLed at if one suggested that the PS3 outsells the Wii three times in a row

try 3 weeks ago.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

3 weeks in a row out selling Wii is starting something...

If you're sure about that, you should propose some sort of bet...

 

[spwolf]

If by "Japan" you mean ~100k more people, then yeah. A temporary sales increase after a price drop and the release of a big franchise game both at the same time?! OMFG! Why did that happen?!

PES didn't increase sales at all, but it most likely created new demand, so the off set would be that demand due to the price drop + Dynasty Warriors went down the week after, and thus, like many a price drops, the highest point of the demand surge from the price drop is in the first week.

I think people are trying to create a pattern out of nothing.

that crap that you wrote about PES makes no sense. It created demand, which means sales unless PS3 is out of stock? I kind of doubt that. Doesnt really matter, ppl are writing it is out of stock in many stores so Konami will be happy.

As to the rest, it is your standard line for past 3 weeks. It is just missing "you just wait for SMG" part.

PS3 outselling Wii for 3 weeks is pretty big deal for the market where PS3 was outsold 6 to 1 at time. And it is all because of $40 price drop and new color and new games. What should it be because of? Weather?

3 weeks is pretty nice uplift and it seems like it will continue for a while. Wii will certainly outsell it next week so I am sure many people will comment on that.

 

[donny2112]

PS3 outselling Wii for 3 weeks is pretty big deal for the market where PS3 was outsold 6 to 1 at time.

Yes, it is. I certainly didn't think it would, because I thought Super Mario Galaxy would be a bigger lift.

3 weeks is pretty nice uplift and it seems like it will continue for a while.

What this means is that the PS3 isn't dead. It's still not in a "good" position, but it can definitely show upswings with the right software and marketing.

If Wii Fit doesn't raise sales, and the PS3 outsells the Wii consistently throughout the holidays, then it'll be in a good position to make a serious run on catching up to the Wii in ~2009, about when Final Fantasy XIII comes out. I don't think that's a realistic scenario, but we'll see.

 

[Fafalada]

The sheer number of non-pirate CFW users in the GAF CFW thread asking "How the fuck do I do this?" should indicate that there are technical obstacles here.

People continue to ignore the obvious. NDS piracy is not advertised.
PSP piracy/CFW has been advertised from the very begining, and with every Firmware update you had milions of people everywhere screaming about how Sony is "gasp" trying to stop pira...homebrew.
A little later media started writting articles, interviewing hackers, and god knows what else. As result of Sony trying to actively fight piracy, PSP scene transcended from simple convenience pirates into a nihilistic resistance movement.

If you look at the "piracy culture" thread you'd note that the entire concept very often turns into peer pressure(eg. you're an idiot if you buy software). The difference is that PSP doesn't have this localized to one or few regions, it's a worldwide thing.

Make no mistake, NDS pirating is increasing as well - but at the current growth of userbase, it will take a long time before it could affect software growth in significant manner. That's something that can't really be said for PSP, regardless of your stance on the matter.
On that note, NDS comparison is a bit unfair since it's far more successful with software then any handheld before it (it will be the first to break 5:1 tieratio for handheld), and for that matter PSP is currently tracking similar to GBA attach.

Mind you I'm not arguing the issue alone is affecting the platform - but you already mentioned other potential issues that combined with the above will have a noticeable effect.

 

[justchris]

I think the piracy issue is pretty easy to explain. The PSP is a technological marvel. The DS is a nifty games machine.

Piracy is fairly easy on either system. The thing is, the demographics skew completely differently. Who do you think is more likely to pirate games, a tech savvy otaku with all the latest gadgets, or your average salaryman?

The PSP mostly sells to gamers, otaku and tech kids, all of whom probably, as a matter of course, might consider piracy at one point or another. This is not to say they would automatically do it, but they'd all pretty much know it was possible one way or another, and simply knowing about it is the first step to potentially doing it.

The DS sells to pretty much everyone. A good portion of the population wouldn't even think about piracy as an option. It's not a matter of any kind of morale superiority so much as it simply wouldn't occur to them. Those not immersed in the tech age just really don't think about piracy much, if at all. I'd be willing to be that about 50% of the DS userbase in Japan doesn't know you can pirate games, or if they do, they assume it's a long, drawn out, expensive process, and not worth their time.

You can put a sign up in a window that says, "R4 AVAILABLE -- YOU KNOW WHAT IT DOES," but the fact of the matter is, a lot of people don't.

 

[GreenNight]

I picked up an R4 over a year ago and while I dont condone piracy, the thing is fantastic for playing mp3s and divx.

 

[Grecco]

You can put a sign up in a window that says, "R4 AVAILABLE -- YOU KNOW WHAT IT DOES," but the fact of the matter is, a lot of people don't.

Perfectly Said man.

 

[perfectchaos007]

If you're sure about that, you should propose some sort of bet...

Maybe...but it will have to be after I see where WiiFit puts Wii Sales at. ( How much it boosts Wii sales. after a couple weeks of WiiFit being on the market )

 

[Xeke]

I mean...In all seriousness what would probably happen if Nintendo had a Wii price drop + black Wii + SSBB next week...