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[donny2112]

If a market has 5 systems tied at equal marketshare, it's great for hardware since it causes the hardware guys to compete more and is good for the consumers, but it's the worst case scenario for the publishers in Japan who don't do multi-platform. In a 5 split market, publishers just see themselves selling 1/5th the amount they would have sold in a one console market or xx in a two console, etc...software-wise we're seeing middle-tier software stuff selling fairly close on all platforms which is giving headaches to everyone in Japan. Splitting up the market is the worst thing you can do for games unfortunately, and I don't see this changing until the next gen.

Where do you see 5 platforms selling software at?

YTD software from Famitsu Top 30s:

NDS 22,496,295
WII 6,937,704
PS2 6,862,407
PSP 3,792,321
PS3 1,577,070
360 469,738
DC 12,881

I see one major one, two that have signs of life (one dying, the other possibly rising), and the rest.

When one system controls over 50% of the software sales, you really cannot call it a five-way split market.

Exactly.

The Japanese gaming industry has reached a point where small companies like Grasshopper are considering to make an X360 game, just to profit from the enormous software sales of that machine in the west.

Where did you read that?

Yeah, but very very few are profiting. And many games bomb on the new platforms even though they are good.

What? Every generation sees some publishers die while others rise up to take their place. The big guys, unless they bet heavily on the PS3, are doing fine, especially if they have good results on the DS.

Not in a better shape for new IPs and hardcore games though.

I am

Spoiler

almost

speechless.

Spoiler

The latest Famitsu Top 30 has 8 IPs new to this generation. "Hardcore" games are still doing okay as sequels and some new ones, but the Japanese audience has been moving away from that for many years.

Its more frequent in the Japanese market though.

Actually since the Japanese market is so geophysically compact and has relatively few places to ship a game to compared to the U.S., I'd say it's easier to make a profit on a small shipment there than in the U.S.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

OK, software information added to the database. Also Famitsu Software Pie, which I forgot to last night along with the hardware data.

Thanks, but your link was wrong! Had to go through your folder structure to find it.

Hah. Unintentional bonus to leaving stuff so accessible: people can find where I send them even if I give wrong directions!

First day sales:

PS3 GT5P: 50k (30% sell-through, downloads unknown and not included)
Wii Chocobo Dungeon: 30k (30% sell-through)
Wii NiGHTS: 7k (10% sell-through)
Wii SC Legend: 5k (10% sell-through)
Wii WE LOVE GOLF: 4k (10% sell-through)

Ouch, pretty weak for Wii software. Looks like Chocobo has a chance to start better than Rocket Slime did in 2005, though.

Holy shit at Chocobo, at this rate, it might not even match the DS game (which is supposed to sell far less anyway as it wasn't Mysterious dungeon).

If Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon selling 30K day one is true, it's started better than Chocobo Tales did last year. Which just goes to show: it's idiotic to release a game on DS.

agreed, 3rd parties need to support the PS3 and help grow its userbase or they will soon find themselves without a market for their games

If they're going to be the ones causing the growth, does it matter where the growth is occurring?

Isn't the first part of Sony's drawing points just starting now with the GT5 Prologue? Clearly the highest selling game series on PS One/PS2's debut on the next generation is the start of something.

Dragon Quest? Yes, it going to DS was the start of an exodus.

The fact that even X360 software is more successfull then most Wii Third Party games is really a bad sign.

That's not a fact, though. There are so far two X360 games we know of over 100K. There are so far four third-party Wii games we know of over 100K. Dragon Quest Swords is approximately equivalent to the top 5 X360 games combined.

 

[iidesuyo]

Well, games have always bombed - that's a constant of the video game business.

We can can discuss as much as we want, just look at those numbers posted today. The Wii hardware is selling better than PS2 back then, but the 3rd parties make no money. And not everything they release is crap. One could blame marketing, but if 4m people buy a new hardware, they should have interest in getting some good games, but they don't.

 

[iidesuyo]

Where did you read that?

gamefront.de

They want to make an X360 game because they're "very interested in the American market"

 

[donny2112]

I will say, though, that the 40% expansion in 2006 is probably from the absolutely anemic performance of the Japanese market the year earlier - in many ways the DS really was the savior of the Japanese gaming market.

Total SW sales from Famitsu Top 30s 1997-: (may be missing a few weeks overall)

1997 - 40.9 million
1998 - 44.7 million
1999 - 52.7 million
2000 - 44.4 million
2001 - 36.1 million
2002 - 38.5 million
2003 - 39.0 million
2004 - 42.3 million
2005 - 36.3 million
2006 - 58.0 million
2007 - 42.1 million (through 20071202)

Historically based on Top 30s, it looks to have been Japan's best year since 1997 and probably ever. 2007 should at least finish as the third best year since 1997, too.

 

[Deku]

Not aimed at anyone in particular but there always seems to be one guy with a particular spin on things that gets donny et al to bust out the lists. Rather than constantly trying to revive the spirit of Tabris and Lance Stern, talk about sales rather than formulating conceptual boxes and arbitrary cut offs for said data. It's getting quite freaking ridiculous.

 

[jgwhiteus]

We can can discuss as much as we want, just look at those numbers posted today. The Wii hardware is selling better than PS2 back then, but the 3rd parties make no money. And not everything they release is crap. One could blame marketing, but if 4m people buy a new hardware, they should have interest in getting some good games, but they don't.

Oh, there's no denying that third parties are hurting right now, but I still think it's part of the growing pains / transition to this gen (for consoles), which again is only about a year in. The Wii's userbase, as big as it is, is likely not similar to the PS2's userbase - at this point. It's probably some combination of old-school Nintendo fans, new / lapsed gamers, and maybe some PS2 gamers. The PS1 to PS2 transition was probably a LOT smoother for third parties in that the userbases were probably almost perfectly aligned.

If the Wii is able to pull off the DS model, though (and there's no guarantee that it will), eventually the expanding userbase will draw better third-party games, which will convince more PS2 gamers to get the Wii, which will drive up traditional third-party sales, etc. I'm not saying it's an easy time for Japanese developers, but I wouldn't say it's all doom and gloom for the next few years either.

EDIT: Even then, though, I don't see third-party games being dominant. Nintendo will definitely be the big player this gen in Japan. The rest will have to make do like they did in the SNES days - they probably won't mind if they can turn a profit.

Total SW sales from Famitsu Top 30s 1997-: (may be missing a few weeks overall)

1997 - 40.9 million
1998 - 44.7 million
1999 - 52.7 million
2000 - 44.4 million
2001 - 36.1 million
2002 - 38.5 million
2003 - 39.0 million
2004 - 42.3 million
2005 - 36.3 million
2006 - 58.0 million
2007 - 42.1 million (through 20071202)

Historically based on Top 30s, it looks to have been Japan's best year since 1997 and probably ever. 2007 should at least finish as the third best year since 1997, too.

Those are interesting numbers - those are pretty huge contractions from '99 - '01, and then another contraction from '04 to '05 returning the market to its '01 levels. Do those dates map onto "transition" periods (PS1 -> PS2, PS2 -> DS), or is it something else?

 

[jgwhiteus]

nm

 

[iidesuyo]

If the Wii is able to pull off the DS model, though (and there's no guarantee that it will), eventually the expanding userbase will draw better third-party games, which will convince more PS2 gamers to get the Wii, which will drive up traditional third-party sales, etc. I'm not saying it's an easy time for Japanese developers, but I wouldn't say it's all doom and gloom for the next few years either.

Maybe one problem the Wii has is that it's not too different from the PS2. The graphics are not much better. Only the Controllers are different... "different", but not neccessarily "better". People who never cared about gaming are hyped because of the controls, but many of those who own a PS2 just wonder what this fuss is about.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Yep, its at 32. place this week.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=215607

Game is sold out virtually everywhere though, thus eBay scalpers selling the game for srp + 30 to 50%.

I had to buy the game used, from Italy, otherwise the only other viable solution was to pay 65Euros (59€ + shipping) from the only online retailer I could trust among the ones having the game in stock (or at least saying so), when the suggested retail price is in fact 49€.

 

[Deku]

Certain highly anticipated (by GAF) third party titles bombed. I dont see how it can be spun any other way.

 

[ethelred]

Good luck making a game on the PS3 or 360 that will sale right now :lol

Third party Wii games don't sell well, you're right - but at least developers aren't losing shit tons of money while developing them

I'm not sure where you got the impression that I thought the PS3 was a good alternative. If you had read my very next post, you would've seen what I think of that particular platform. As to the 360: it can be a really good choice for development under certain conditions. If a company decides to basically forego the Japanese market and make games aimed more towards westerners, designed under a particular mindset, I think they can see enormous success on the platform. Trying to take typical Japanese-oriented PS2-style software and sell that on the 360... probably won't be a good plan.

Those aren't the only choices publishers have, though.

3rd parties have nowhere to sell their games anymore in Japan. Some people say DS, but unless you are the hot fucking shit (aka, 5% of games) you still sell like shit on DS, just as much as you sell like shit on the Wii/PS3/X360/PSP and somewhat PS2.

That's not really entirely true. In very few instances have we seen publishers put a combination of: a) serious effort; b) serious talent; and c) a serious franchise into a DS game only to have the final result be a bomb. When a publisher treats the DS as a shovelware platform, or as a place to put half-hearted B/C-team spinoffs or outsourced projects under the expectation that they'll sell simply because of the userbase, they get bitten. It is, for better or worse, the primary console of this generation... but most publishers are not treating it that way (again, for better or worse). Some people will certainly say that for gamers, this is a good thing. For publishers, though, it isn't, because they're increasingly backing themselves into a financial corner and sooner or later that's going to hurt.

The PSP is also a pretty good choice, but in that case, the game really needs to be a stand out, stellar title (even moreso than with the DS) to see the success that'll really reward a publisher. We've seen that when a publisher makes an effort at a flagship game on the PSP, the results are very positive. It's still got to be considered one of the most viable platforms for development right now.

This is just the end result of a split market. If a market has 5 systems tied at equal marketshare, it's great for hardware since it causes the hardware guys to compete more and is good for the consumers, but it's the worst case scenario for the publishers in Japan who don't do multi-platform. In a 5 split market, publishers just see themselves selling 1/5th the amount they would have sold in a one console market or xx in a two console, etc...software-wise we're seeing middle-tier software stuff selling fairly close on all platforms which is giving headaches to everyone in Japan. Splitting up the market is the worst thing you can do for games unfortunately, and I don't see this changing until the next gen.

This all sounds good and reasonable, but factually it's pretty incorrect. The situation you describe isn't the situation that actually exists.

Certain highly anticipated (by GAF) third party titles bombed. I dont see how it can be spun any other way.

It'd be easy to write these failures off as merely a case of high expectations from certain forumgoers, but that isn't the case. It's more a matter of looking at series or developer pedigree and attempting to gauge proper sales results based on that.

For instance, given NiGHTS' 400k performance... this is not a positive result. Yes, certainly, no one should have expected an identical level of sales, as Sega's never come close in Japan to the height they were at for the Saturn's peak. But the series warranted stronger sales than this. The same is the case with Wii Love Golf, which really should've sold better not based on forum expectations but based on publisher expectations (the game was the major focal point for Capcom at TGS, despite people saying the company never promoted it) and based on developer strength. Same with Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon -- Mysterious Dungeon's pretty huge in Japan, Chocobo's one of the best selling brands, and given the past performance the series has seen (1 million --> 600k --> this), it should've done more.

 

[Bebpo]

When one system controls over 50% of the software sales, you really cannot call it a five-way split market.

Which shows you didn't even read what I said!

Honestly, no one in sales age should care about the big games that sell. Those will sell well and life will move on. Like I said 5% of the software sells like that. The other 95% of the software doesn't.

If you look at the normal games that are the ones people have to worry about getting sequels or their developers staying in business. Sales are basically a 5-way split within 10k either way.

PSP middle tier games do like 20k, DS ones do like 30k, PS3 do like 30k, X360 do like 20k, Wii do like 30k. Whereas PS2 middle tiers 5 years ago did 100k. This is what your average non-SE, non-Nintendo, non-Namco franchise publisher sees and they hate it.

 

[Linkup]

For instance, given NiGHTS' 400k performance... this is not a positive result. Yes, certainly, no one should have expected an identical level of sales, as Sega's never come close in Japan to the height they were at for the Saturn's peak. But the series warranted stronger sales than this. The same is the case with Wii Love Golf, which really should've sold better not based on forum expectations but based on publisher expectations (the game was the major focal point for Capcom at TGS, despite people saying the company never promoted it) and based on developer strength. Same with Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon -- Mysterious Dungeon's pretty huge in Japan, Chocobo's one of the best selling brands, and given the past performance the series has seen (1 million --> 600k --> this), it should've done more.

The market has change since that last Nights game, Sega's developer strength should have told everyone that the game was going to sell like crap. People are still paying to much attention to brand.

 

[Deku]

For instance, given NiGHTS' 400k performance... this is not a positive result. Yes, certainly, no one should have expected an identical level of sales, as Sega's never come close in Japan to the height they were at for the Saturn's peak. But the series warranted stronger sales than this. The same is the case with Wii Love Golf, which really should've sold better not based on forum expectations but based on publisher expectations (the game was the major focal point for Capcom at TGS, despite people saying the company never promoted it) and based on developer strength. Same with Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon -- Mysterious Dungeon's pretty huge in Japan, Chocobo's one of the best selling brands, and given the past performance the series has seen (1 million --> 600k --> this), it should've done more.

To be fair those are first day numbers of chocobo. One thing I think we need to separate out between our own expectations is whether people actually want to play those games.

I personally can't get excited about We Love Golf or Nights, despite the pedigree of the dev house in the former and in Nights' case brand strength from a 15 year old title. Given that there are games that have done well under this new regime from smart develeopers. Tastes have simply moved on. Both titles seem to be a case of development houses in disarray and mistargeting properties to any platform, let alone the Wii.

Even Mingol has seen its sales decline from its highs on the same platform. It's not even a generational thing, and it is a game on what is supposed to be a resurgent PSP hardware situation. Something is going that's a bit deeper than the usual semi troll of 'nintendo kills 3rd parties' or so and so platform can't sell games, which usually spirals into an argument that no ones want anyways.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Oh, there's no denying that third parties are hurting right now, but I still think it's part of the growing pains / transition to this gen (for consoles), which again is only about a year in.

Hopefully. DS looked pretty awful for third parties a year in, too, with PSP not much better.

Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on DS. As says Famitsu.
Tamagotchi Connection: 107,499
Naruto SND3: 66,897
PW Ace Attorney: 50,469
SD Gundam G Generation: 44,257
DQ Rocket Slime: 43,995
Yu-Gi-Oh! NT: 39,016
Naruto RPG 2: 31,451
Egg Monster Hero: 29,464
Pac-Pix: 27,903
Harvest Moon DS: 22,026

Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on PSP. As says Famitsu.
Monster Hunter Freedom: 118,317
World Soccer Winning Eleven 9: 87,935
Tales of Eternia: 74,630
Ridge Racers: 60,163
Dynasty Warriors: 56,425
Nou Ryoku Trainer Portable: 45,857
Gundam Battle Tactics: 35,447
Kidou Senshi Gundam: 32,465
Techu Time of the Assassins: 28,100
Metal Gear Acid: 24,149

It's possible Mojipittan and Mahjong Kakutou Club should be on the list, but as they released during periods where two weeks were combined I don't have just a first week number.


Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on Wii. As says Famitsu.
Dragon Quest Swords: 302,066
RE Umbrella Chronicles: 104,960
One Piece UA: 54,192
RE4 Wii edition: 46,813
Power Pro Baseball Wii: 46,280
Gundam MS Front 0079: 43,659
DBZ BT2: 42,501
Naruto SGNTEX: 34,783
DBZ BT3: 34,783
Hajime no Ippo Revolution: 25,480

Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on PS3. As says Famitsu.
Dynasty Warriors 6: 176,180
Dynasty Warriors Gundam: 171,032
Bladestorm: 62,921
Virtua Fighter 5: 52,432
Ninja Gaiden Sigma: 40,886
Armored Core 4: 36,446
Ridge Racer 7: 30,318
MSG Target in Sight: 30,051
ESIV Oblivion: 22,988
Imabikisou: 20,419

Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on X360. As says Famitsu.
Dead or Alive 4: 62,603
Dead or Alive Xtreme 2: 45,065
Ridge Racer 6: 29,891
Dead Rising: 22,240
Culdcept Saga: 19,984
Rumble Roses XX: 16,944
Enchanted Arms: 12,858
FFXI All-pack 2006: 8,561
Chrome Hounds: 7,075
Sylpheed Project: 6,542

Through 53 weeks, the top 10 third-party first weeks on PS2. As says Famitsu.
Onimusha: 517,078
Gekikuukan Pro Baseball: 293,608
Ridge Racer V: 233,391
Tekken Tag Tournament: 214,753
Mobile Suit Gundam: 165,885
Dynasty Warriors 2: 164,427
The Bouncer: 158,727
Dead or Alive 2: 158,506
Armored Core 2: 148,348
Power Pro Baseball 7: 142,152

Of the five recent systems, PS3 and Wii come out the best in this particular comparison. Neither comes close to touching PS2, though.

 

[donny2112]

Do those dates map onto "transition" periods (PS1 -> PS2, PS2 -> DS), or is it something else?

Nintendo was not very alive in Japan for the N64 and GCN eras. It had a few big titles, but on a week-by-week basis, it didn't have much representation in the Top 30s. That's probably part of the reason for the contraction, i.e. less systems consistently selling software. It's just a guess, though, as I haven't done a thorough analysis.

2004 had the launch of the DS, PSP, Dragon Quest VIII, and Pokemon. That's probably why it marginally went up compared to 2003.

2006 is where things really got interesting. DS Shortages led to the Famous Four (BT, BT2, AC, MK) being in the Top 30 about every single week. Then NSMB launched. The Top 30 essentially became a Top 25 plus those five games. This, along with the general increased software sales from the DS, made the Top 30s a lot stronger compared to previous years. 2006 also had Pokemon and FFXII. 1999 had FFVIII and Pokemon, as well.

Not a real answer as to the exact reasons, but this should give you some context for the numbers.

 

[zankara]

Anyone know how many red PSPs were shipped?

 

[BishopLamont]

Nah, my interest in sales is in a separate compartment from my interest in playing games. This enables me to call Super Mario Galaxy the best game of the last eleven years and anticipate NiGHTS with literal drool on my chin while still laughing at their sales failures.

And what a failure NiGHTS is shaping up to be, saleswise. I bet under 12k for the week.

Ah but you shouldn't be laughing at the sales, where do you think Nights 3 will come from? *RAWR*

 

[AnimeTheme]

Anyone know how many red PSPs were shipped?

100k as far as I remember

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Is that a joke? Pretty poor joke..gaming died a while back in Japan..we just never accepted it.

No. PS2 proved that most traditional games could still sell very well. I have also the impression that non-games are not only expanding, but also substituting to original game genres. This is good for Nintendo, but bad for almost everyone else.

Where do you see 5 platforms selling software at?

YTD software from Famitsu Top 30s:

NDS 22,496,295
WII 6,937,704
PS2 6,862,407
PSP 3,792,321
PS3 1,577,070
360 469,738
DC 12,881

I see one major one, two that have signs of life (one dying, the other possibly rising), and the rest.

.

PSP sold more then 2 millions hardware this year. The attach rate is then ca. 1.5. Bad. The problem is only isolated games sold very well: FF7CC and Monster Hunter 2 Portable. These TWO games alone are half of PSP total YTD. Again, developers aren't enough profitating the great userbase of the handheld and this is a shame.

DS is king. Period. I would like to know how much software comes from Nintendo, how much from Square-Enix and how much from the rest of Third Parties.

PS2 is in decline, but still profitable, at least as the Wii and more then PSP.
Wii is rising. Slowly, but surely, as an interesting machine for developers, but still with some big problems, as bombs like Zack and Wiki have shown. The lack of a big and active hardcore userbase is definitely a problem. This seems to not be the case for NA, where Mario Galaxy and Guitar Hero III sold very well, at least partly.

PS3...bad. Period. And X360 is bad, but good in comparison to its small userbase. Again, 2008 will be the crucial year for PS3.

 

[CowGirl]

The PSP is also a pretty good choice, but in that case, the game really needs to be a stand out, stellar title (even moreso than with the DS) to see the success that'll really reward a publisher. We've seen that when a publisher makes an effort at a flagship game on the PSP, the results are very positive. It's still got to be considered one of the most viable platforms for development right now.

Are you fucking kidding me? The PSP is one of the "most viable platforms for development right now"? The development costs of making a PSP title are equivalent to making a PS2 or Wii title and the software sales are HORRIBLE. Developers have been systematically shutting down their PSP teams over the last year and moving them to other platforms. Look how barebones the release schedule is next year compared to previous years for PSP - devs know there is little cash to be made and are pulling out.

 

[Magicpaint]

According to Mainichi, DQ4 broke one million shipped as of Thursday.

Sweet.

 

[Vic]

Are you fucking kidding me? The PSP is one of the "most viable platforms for development right now"? The development costs of making a PSP title are equivalent to making a PS2 or Wii title and the software sales are HORRIBLE. Developers have been systematically shutting down their PSP teams over the last year and moving them to other platforms. Look how barebones the release schedule is next year compared to previous years for PSP - devs know there is little cash to be made and are pulling out.

Yet big Capcom and SE titles are still selling very well on the PSP...

 

[Defuser]

Yet big Capcom and SE titles are still selling very well on the PSP...

Capcom and SE is always a exception for any console so far......

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Yet big Capcom and SE titles are still selling very well on the PSP...

That's the problem: only Monster Hunter Portable 2 and FF7CC sold well. These two games sold half of all software YTD. It is a sign that the machine is by far not supported enough.

 

[donny2112]

DS is king. Period. I would like to know how much software comes from Nintendo, how much from Square-Enix and how much from the rest of Third Parties.

Again, YTD from the Famitsu Top 30s.

NDS

Nintendo 10,766,394
Square Enix 3,138,341
Nintendo/Pokemon Co. 2,056,575
Namco Bandai Games 1,686,238
Capcom 1,031,194
Level 5 913,894
Other 2,903,659

PSP

Capcom 1,483,912
Square Enix 1,136,131
Namco Bandai Games 470,552
Konami 439,408
SCEI 165,290
Other 97,028

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Ah but you shouldn't be laughing at the sales, where do you think Nights 3 will come from? *RAWR*

Like I said, I keep 'em separated.

Anyway, NiGHTS: Into Dreams was a massive success and it took eleven years to get a sequel. Even before seeing how this one did (lol), I wasn't expecting a sequel anytime soon. Sonic's garden needs to be tended, after all.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Sonic's garden needs to be tended, after all.

His garden needs to be dug up, filled with gravel, levelled and re-turfed.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

His garden needs to be dug up, filled with gravel, levelled and re-turfed.

At this point I wish they'd throw him in a shallow grave, but I'm not running SEGA.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

At this point I wish they'd throw him in a shallow grave, but I'm not running SEGA.

:lol

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Again, YTD from the Famitsu Top 30s.

NDS

Nintendo 10,766,394 --------------> Yoshi's Island 2, Zelda and most of all old games !
Square Enix 3,138,341 -------------> Dragon Quest, FF and small games.
Nintendo/Pokemon Co. 2,056,575 ---------> Pokémon and Pokémon
Namco Bandai Games 1,686,238 ---------------> A little bit surprised. Tales of and what ?
Capcom 1,031,194 ------------------------> Not bad. Ace Attorney and rest.
Level 5 913,894 -----------------> Great performance of Layton. A new franchise that succeed.
Other 2,903,659 ------------> Lots of small games that somehow succeed.

PSP

Capcom 1,483,912 -----------------> Monster Hunter Portable 2
Square Enix 1,136,131 ---------------> FF7CC and Tactics
Namco Bandai Games 470,552 -----------------> Tales of
Konami 439,408 -----------------------------> Metal Gear Solid Portable Ops
SCEI 165,290 --------------------------> WTF Sony ?!??
Other 97,028 ----------------------------> WTF the the entire industry ?!! Almost NO other games came out.

Thanks. It is a SCANDAL how Sony doens't use the potential of its own handheld. Where is GT Portable for example?
And look at the difference between Other DS and Other PSP. Shit.

Another interesting thing: the total absence of Sega. Sega, where are you ?

 

[Jokeropia]

Which shows you didn't even read what I said!

Honestly, no one in sales age should care about the big games that sell. Those will sell well and life will move on. Like I said 5% of the software sells like that. The other 95% of the software doesn't.

If you remove the top 5% of all DS software, the cutoff still isn't below 1 million.

PSP middle tier games do like 20k, DS ones do like 30k, PS3 do like 30k, X360 do like 20k, Wii do like 30k. Whereas PS2 middle tiers 5 years ago did 100k. This is what your average non-SE, non-Nintendo, non-Namco franchise publisher sees and they hate it.

The following non-SE, non-Nintendo, non-Namco franchise publisher has seen significantly better sales on DS than 30k (say 100k+):

Sega
Rocket Company
Level 5
IE Institute
Capcom
Shogakukan
Banpresto
Marvelous Interactive
Tomy/Takara Tomy
Hudson
EA (!)
TDK Core
Tecmo
Spike
Atlus
MTO

On PSP:

Capcom
Konami
Sega
Koei
Enterbrain

On Wii:

Sega
Capcom

On PS3:

Koei
Konami

On 360:

Tecmo

The 360 situation is especially grim with ~71% of all games selling below 20k.

 

[ethelred]

Are you fucking kidding me? The PSP is one of the "most viable platforms for development right now"? The development costs of making a PSP title are equivalent to making a PS2 or Wii title and the software sales are HORRIBLE. Developers have been systematically shutting down their PSP teams over the last year and moving them to other platforms. Look how barebones the release schedule is next year compared to previous years for PSP - devs know there is little cash to be made and are pulling out.

As I said, I wouldn't consider it the primary platform, or the system a publisher should be putting the majority or even a plurality of their games on. But certain titles (in fact, certain franchises, even) have proven that they can sell very successfully on the PSP, and a publisher that isn't exploiting that is missing a big opportunity.

I suspect Square Enix's Star Ocean remakes (the first of which is due in December) will do quite well for themselves, and Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep should do very well. I've stated many times in the past that it'll certainly outsell Kingdom Hearts: 179, and I stand by that. Namco's done well with the Tales series on the system, and with their various Gundam games. Kojima's smart to have another Metal Gear Solid title in development for it.

If I were a publisher in Japan right now, my strategy would probably consist of a mix of making A-level games for the DS and B-level games (basically, making it the primary development platform), making certain flagship series *****pin releases for the PSP, continuing with PS2 development, and making western-focused titles for the 360. I'd be very cautious about the PS3 and the Wii.

Maybe you could replace "Wii" with every instance of "PSP" above and treat them similarly in terms of doing high level high franchise releases at *****pin points in your schedule, but the Wii is proving very erratic, very unpredictable. It's had a number of notable third party successes... but it's also had a lot of high profile failures. I'd be pretty alarmed going into a high profile project for that system because the userbase is so unstable.

That's the problem: only Monster Hunter Portable 2 and FF7CC sold well. These two games sold half of all software YTD. It is a sign that the machine is by far not supported enough.

If you think that "selling well" is defined as "selling 700,000 units or more," I'd suggest your standards are even more harebrained than Lance Stern's.

The following non-SE, non-Nintendo, non-Namco franchise publisher has seen significantly better sales on DS than 30k (say 100k+):

I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean what you think he means. It's more a matter of looking at the average and median sales on a platform for a particular publisher -- they're not doing as well as their very best seller, after all. Then you'd see something like, for Sega, an average of 118,480 in sales and a median of 62,231. Or, for Konami... an average of 57,354 and a median of 51,321. :/

 

[Stumpokapow]

If you think that "selling well" is defined as "selling 700,000 units or more," I'd suggest your standards are even more harebrained than Lance Stern's.

I think it's harebrained to look at an individual piece of software and say "This doesn't hit <x>, so it's a bomba". But I don't think it's really harebrained to look at the totality of yearly software and say "Only <y> titles have hit <x>, so software as a whole is pretty bad"

In the PSP's case, here are the number of 2007-release titles (including 12/2006 titles) that hit a certain mark--obviously we don't have the full-year top 500 so there will be games that sneak up there later, but I think we can agree that analyzing the top-30 based numbers is adequate for now:
>1mln: 1
>500k: 2
>250k: 4
>100k: 11 (1 of which is close to 250k)
>50k: 20

In comparison, the Wii with its lower userbase and shitty software sales--I include this not to demonstrate that the Wii is better, but that the PSP is on its own doing poorly:
>1mln: 2
>500k: 5 (1 of which is close to 1mln)
>250k: 9 (2 of which are close to 500k)
>100k: 15 (2 of which are close to 250k)
>50k: 29

Obviously software sales analysis can be extended with mean/median analysis, stdevs, isolated by publisher or genre or franchise history, game budget, overseas sales, etc... but when you just look at everything all together, it's not a pretty picture.

So, yeah it's foolish to say that a game fails if it doesn't hit 100k, but if you look holistically at all the software released in the year and it's consistently shitty... that's bad news.

Edit: Also I just wanted to note that if I were a developer, my strategy would likely be the same as yours; except I would be porting all my PS2 titles to the Wii (for the marginal extra sales as well as overseas potential and encouraging userbase migration) and I would not focus on western-friendly 360 titles, because I still think banking on overseas sales has been a dangerous gamble in many cases. But ultimately I do agree that the DS/PSP combo is a very viable development strategy.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

If you think that "selling well" is defined as "selling 700,000 units or more," I'd suggest your standards are even more harebrained than Lance Stern's.

Holy crap Ethelred. You knew what I meant. Look at the "Other DS" and "Other PSP". A machine doesn't live only with two sporadic big games. Otherwise the N64 would have been a much bigger success.
Every console needs a support of many little games behind that come out regulary.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Software development for the japanese home console market seems to be risky business these days coming from a third party perspective. Generally good performance by Nintendo software doesn't help that cause. It's always hard to compete against Nintendo in regards to software and the rather busy Nintendo schedule on Wii doesn't seem to give third parties a lot of room to breathe.

I thought that third parties would just go where the money is but with PS2 software sales slowly going down and PS3 not being a feasible software plattform due to high development costs, low userbase and generally low software sales there's really no way to go for (comparitively) low risk development other than DS.

It would be a shame to see japanese devs go more or less handheld exclusive. I love my DS but I really use it for portable gaming only.

Yet big Capcom and SE titles are still selling very well on the PSP...

If by "Capcom" you mean Monster Hunter then you are certainly right. The other titles didn't fare too well. Square-Enix titles generally sell considerably well but sell a lot better on DS.

 

[schuelma]

Maybe you could replace "Wii" with every instance of "PSP" above and treat them similarly in terms of doing high level high franchise releases at *****pin points in your schedule, but the Wii is proving very erratic, very unpredictable. It's had a number of notable third party successes... but it's also had a lot of high profile failures. I'd be pretty alarmed going into a high profile project for that system because the userbase is so unstable.

I agree with this notion- DQ:Swords and RE:UC tells me the Wii userbase will buy high profile projects, but they have to be pretty mainstream. I would lead on DS, sprinkle in some high profile PSP/Wii games, continue PS2 development, and take some low budget risks with Wii to see if anything catches.

 

[ethelred]

Holy crap Ethelred. You knew what I meant. Look at the "Other DS" and "Other PSP". A machine doesn't live only with two sporadic big games. Otherwise the N64 would have been a much bigger success.
Every console needs a support of many little games behind that come out regulary.

I don't sit here with a crystal ball and an translator to divine the meaning of what certain posters "mean." I can only respond to what they say, and you said that only Monster Hunter and Crisis Core sold well, which is blatantly wrong.

 

[damisa]

Again, YTD from the Famitsu Top 30s.

NDS

Nintendo 10,766,394
Square Enix 3,138,341
Nintendo/Pokemon Co. 2,056,575
Namco Bandai Games 1,686,238
Capcom 1,031,194
Level 5 913,894
Other 2,903,659

PSP

Capcom 1,483,912
Square Enix 1,136,131
Namco Bandai Games 470,552
Konami 439,408
SCEI 165,290
Other 97,028

Anyone else think DS 3rd party sales are kind of overated? Nintendo accounts for 57% of all software sales on it. Nintendo and SE account for 71% of all sales with probably like 10% of the units. Not to mention that recent thread with 3rd party million sellers. 360 already surpassed it with a small fraction of the userbase and time on market. It's doing very good for a handheld, which historically sell less software, but it's hard to believe 3rd parties could be content with only DS after all their success with the PS2.

 

[Busaiku]

Anyone else think DS 3rd party sales are kind of overated? Nintendo accounts for 57% of all software sales on it. Nintendo and SE account for 71% of all sales with probably like 10% of the units. Not to mention that recent thread with 3rd party million sellers. 360 already surpassed it with a small fraction of the userbase and time on market. It's doing very good for a handheld, which historically sell less software, but it's hard to believe 3rd parties could be content with only DS after all their success with the PS2.

I'm sure they're making quite a bit of money on the DS, since producing the games does not cost as much as a 360 or even PS2 game.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Anyone else think DS 3rd party sales are kind of overated? Nintendo accounts for 57% of all software sales on it. Nintendo and SE account for 71% of all sales with probably like 10% of the units.

As has been previously mentioned, literally dozens of developers and publishers have seen massive sales increases from the DS. Consider the fact that Dragon Quest is going to the DS. Consider the fact that countless lower-level franchises, including Metal Slug and Tales Of are now DS-primary. The DS is the successor to the PS2 in Japan, only with less Pachinko and more non-games.

Not to mention that recent thread with 3rd party million sellers. 360 already surpassed it with a small fraction of the userbase and time on market.

The thread where people a) invented numbers out of thin air, b) took 1 million shipped to mean 1 million sold even when direct sales evidence proved the shipment numbers to be high, c) included games they thought would eventually become million sellers like Mass Effect.

Also, that thread was worldwide; this thread is Japan, where there are exactly 0 million sellers on the Xbox 360 and the DS is tied with the PS2 for most million sellers anyway.

It's doing very good for a handheld, which historically sell less software, but it's hard to believe 3rd parties could be content with only DS after all their success with the PS2.

The DS is doing as well or better than the PS2 was in terms of software in Japan.

 

[BishopLamont]

Anyone else think DS 3rd party sales are kind of overated? Nintendo accounts for 57% of all software sales on it. Nintendo and SE account for 71% of all sales with probably like 10% of the units. Not to mention that recent thread with 3rd party million sellers. 360 already surpassed it with a small fraction of the userbase and time on market. It's doing very good for a handheld, which historically sell less software, but it's hard to believe 3rd parties could be content with only DS after all their success with the PS2.

Beggars can't be choosers, DS is the main platform in Japan.

 

[Jokeropia]

I'm pretty sure he doesn't mean what you think he means. It's more a matter of looking at the average and median sales on a platform for a particular publisher -- they're not doing as well as their very best seller, after all. Then you'd see something like, for Sega, an average of 118,480 in sales and a median of 62,231. Or, for Konami... an average of 57,354 and a median of 51,321. :/

That's show that you absolutely don't have to be one of the biggest publishers to experience great success on DS. His statement made it seem like PS3 and DS were equally fruitful platforms for middle size games/publishers in Japan, and that's what I took issue with.

 

[damisa]

The thread where people a) invented numbers out of thin air, b) took 1 million shipped to mean 1 million sold even when direct sales evidence proved the shipment numbers to be high, c) included games they thought would eventually become million sellers like Mass Effect. .

I don't remember anyone who just invented numbers, but yes people did take shipped=sold in some cases, and also assumed a couple games to be million sellers (like mass efect). However, it doesn't matter, the numbers aren't even close for 3rd party million sellers:
360 - 27 games
DS - 9 games
even with a far smaller userbase for 360. As far as I know, PS2 had considerably more million sellers than the 360.

Also, that thread was worldwide; this thread is Japan, where there are exactly 0 million sellers on the Xbox 360 and the DS is tied with the PS2 for most million sellers anyway.
The DS is doing as well or better than the PS2 was in terms of software in Japan.

That seems impressive. How many 3rd party million sellers are on each platform? I honestly don't know.

edit: By the way, I agree that DS is still the best place for 3rd parties in japan right now, even if I'm not convinced it's as good as PS2 was.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I don't sit here with a crystal ball and an translator to divine the meaning of what certain posters "mean." I can only respond to what they say, and you said that only Monster Hunter and Crisis Core sold well, which is blatantly wrong.

These two games are the look-out of the handheld, because they sold much more then all other games on PSP. After FF7CC (ca. 750k), then FFT comes with 300k. Then MGSO+ and Gundam with 200k. Then FF PSP. Then another Gundam. Then a Tales of. All at 100k.

You can say at least two things with these numbers:

1) Lack of many little games that have a "complement" effect. Only few games come out irregulary. Syndrome N64, but with the lack of a decent First party Support.

2) The big games can be divided in franchises: a) Monster Hunter; b) Final Fantasy; c) Metal Gear Solid.
Then if you want, d) Gundam. e) Tales of. Thes two categories are smaller anyway.

We can say that PSP is a console, where, in Japan, only the same franchises come out. The "games-diversity" is very low. And this partly explain why "Other PSP" is so low.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Thanks. It is a SCANDAL how Sony doens't use the potential of its own handheld. Where is GT Portable for example?
And look at the difference between Other DS and Other PSP. Shit.

Another interesting thing: the total absence of Sega. Sega, where are you ?

Exactly, the PSP has so much potential in terms of software.

It already has a massive user base that eclipsed the XBOX, Gamecube, Dreamcast, and is getting close to the Nintendo 64. On top of that they could sell games to this market that is starved for games and they don't need to pay licensing fees since they own the hardware. The user base is willing to buy a great game, just look at FF7 crisis core.

If Sony put a AAA RPG's out like Jeanne D'arc but made it more cinematic and more traditional it would sell a ton.

 

[Stumpokapow]

That seems impressive. How many 3rd party million sellers are on each platform? I honestly don't know.

That's a bullshit comparison, period--and I assume in good faith that you're asking the question because you haven't yet considered why.

SCEI is not half the publisher in size or critical acclaim as Nintendo is. You might well make the same comparison between SCEA and MGS and say that the 360 is a substantially healthier platform for third-party sales because SCEA has a higher proportion of the million sellers on PS2 than MGS does on the 360. It's relative to the size and quantity of their efforts.

 

[Knastluder]

Exactly, the PSP has so much potential in terms of software.

It already has a massive user base that eclipsed the XBOX, Gamecube, Dreamcast, and is getting close to the Nintendo 64. On top of that they could sell games to this market that is starved for games and they don't need to pay licensing fees since they own the hardware. The user base is willing to buy a great game, just look at FF7 crisis core.

If Sony put a AAA RPG's out like Jeanne D'arc but made it more cinematic and more traditional it would sell a ton.

At least porn sells.

 

[charlequin]

Are you fucking kidding me? The PSP is one of the "most viable platforms for development right now"?

It sure is. It's got lower dev costs than the HD machines and (thus far) a pretty solid track record of sufficiently large-profile software: SE and Capcom have done very well (and will continue to do well with titles like Birth by Sleep and MH3p) and Namco and Konami have both had successful big-profile titles as well. That makes it more desirable than pretty much any of the consoles.

The fact that it's still not a great platform compared to other platforms in history just shows how treacherous the market is right now. Only the DS really has the true market-leader status, and most publishers still haven't figured out how to tap that as efficiently as they did the PS2.