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Media Create Sales 2/19 - 2/25
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Thraktor said:
Pikmin don't work on Sundays. They have prayers to answer.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
PantherLotus said:
... no I didn't
AlphaSnake
...and that, kids, was the first time I sucked a dick for crack
Can we get a new thread for the new sales results, please? This is sort of stupid.
I can't quite let this thread die without one last post filled with numbers, charts and questionable-extrapolation-of-current-trends, and I was looking at Wii Sports attach rate data for a post earlier, so here you all go:
First, the numbers and chart:
As you can see, the week-to-week attach rate compared to Wii hardware sales has been constantly high, and the overall attach rate has actually climbed since launch. The game reached an LTD attach rate "plateau" of 66% over a seven-week period, and is now very slightly declining.
The big difference between the week of 24th December and the week of 31st December is an indication that the game was most likely supply-constrained on the first week, and a lot of people who bought the console the first week got the game when it came back in stock the second. Either that or many consoles were bought the first week as presents without games, and after receiving their new Wiis, people went off to buy Wii Sports the second week. Either way, the two weeks average out to a 66% attach rate, right in line with other weeks.
Now, the ridiculous prediction:
Due to the possibility of software supply-constraints affecting the first 6/7 weeks, I'm only going to consider the week of 14th January onwards, as that's the point weekly and LTD attach rates converged. Over this 6-week period, the game's LTD attach rate dipped by 0.20%. Presuming a five-year console cycle (that'd be 247 weeks left) and 20 million Wii console sales by the end of it (it's tracking fairly close to the PS2, so why not), the game will decline at a steady rate to an end-of-life attach ratio of 57.3%, or just under 11.5 million sales. This will make it not only the highest selling game of all time in Japan by quite a margin (beating out combined Pokemon Red/Green sales), but it will have double the attach rate of NSMB (which I believe is currently at the highest attach rate of any game on a popular system in Japan).
First, the numbers and chart:
Code:
Week Wii Hardware / Week Wii Sports / Week Attach Rate / Week Wii Hardware / LTD Wii Sports / LTD Attach Rate / LTD
03/12/06 350358 176167 0.50 350358 176167 0.50
10/12/06 85439 72382 0.85 435797 248549 0.57
17/12/06 108237 69923 0.65 544034 318472 0.59
24/12/06 279277 152756 0.55 823311 471228 0.57
31/12/06 96332 95479 0.99 919643 566707 0.62
07/01/07 195331 166011 0.85 1114974 732718 0.66
14/01/07 93708 61399 0.66 1208682 794117 0.66
21/01/07 86395 57418 0.66 1295077 851535 0.66
28/01/07 83754 58886 0.70 1378831 910421 0.66
04/02/07 65740 48236 0.73 1444571 958657 0.66
11/02/07 78550 45897 0.58 1523121 1004554 0.66
18/02/07 63618 39128 0.62 1586739 1043682 0.66
25/02/07 78506 47053 0.60 1665245 1090735 0.65As you can see, the week-to-week attach rate compared to Wii hardware sales has been constantly high, and the overall attach rate has actually climbed since launch. The game reached an LTD attach rate "plateau" of 66% over a seven-week period, and is now very slightly declining.
The big difference between the week of 24th December and the week of 31st December is an indication that the game was most likely supply-constrained on the first week, and a lot of people who bought the console the first week got the game when it came back in stock the second. Either that or many consoles were bought the first week as presents without games, and after receiving their new Wiis, people went off to buy Wii Sports the second week. Either way, the two weeks average out to a 66% attach rate, right in line with other weeks.
Now, the ridiculous prediction:
Due to the possibility of software supply-constraints affecting the first 6/7 weeks, I'm only going to consider the week of 14th January onwards, as that's the point weekly and LTD attach rates converged. Over this 6-week period, the game's LTD attach rate dipped by 0.20%. Presuming a five-year console cycle (that'd be 247 weeks left) and 20 million Wii console sales by the end of it (it's tracking fairly close to the PS2, so why not), the game will decline at a steady rate to an end-of-life attach ratio of 57.3%, or just under 11.5 million sales. This will make it not only the highest selling game of all time in Japan by quite a margin (beating out combined Pokemon Red/Green sales), but it will have double the attach rate of NSMB (which I believe is currently at the highest attach rate of any game on a popular system in Japan).
Note: the above prediction assumes that no significant new games will ever come out for the Wii, and that there is no such thing as market saturation.
I disagree. My prediction is that Wii won't even sell close to 20 million and those who buy it will be more hardcore oriented gamers starting in October of this year. This will mean that because of Wii's market, Wii Sports's attach rate will decline to below 10% per week and with Wii selling a maximum of 7 million console by the end of its life cycle, Wii Sports will sell significantly less than 2 million when it's all said and done.
Note: The above prediction assumes that Microsoft will release a cultural phenomenon for the Xbox 360 in October that will sky-rocket Xbox 360 sales to an average of 140,000 per week, making Xbox 360 the clear winner of the console war in Japan.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
? Compared to anything before DS, yes it is.farnham said:
See for yourself. Frequently above 70K? Yes. Usually? No.farnham said:
Actually, try this one. I put a cap of 70K on it, so any week that actually shows up there is below 70K.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Really, why do people expect a drop-off with the Wii? It's been selling on Wii Sports and Play. You think that Animal Crossing, Super Mario Galaxy, and the inevitable Brain Age/Nintendogs Wii ames won't make a difference?
Eteric Rice
Member
Parl said:
:lol
I didn't expect it to stay at 100K either, but saying 60K for PSP is good while for Wii it's bad, doesn't make sense. PSP sales dropped 40K according to those early (not official) numbers, Wii dropped "only" 20K. And as I said, Wii is still selling out (it does that in every part of the world it seems), and as is shown in those lately weekly numbers, Wii has been doing that 80K/60K/80K/60K for a while.DeaconKnowledge said:
NintendosBooger
Member
Oblivion said:
No, it's wait 'till Little Big Planet.
I can't say that for sure either, but that's what I've heard all around, and what I've witnessed myself. But wasn't Nintendo suppose to up the production, starting in March? I think they were, so next week or a week after, we could see even some 100K numbers for Wii.farnham said:
Wish we would see some better numbers for XBox 360 and PS3 as well, though PS3 seemed to get decent boost from that Gundam Musou game. Now if it only could hold those sales for a while and then start getting higher.
moku said:
From a first party perspective, I reckon we would see more play-safe games. But strangely enough, outside of Viva Pinata, MS have been 'playing safe' since day one. I'm surprised we haven't seen more innovation from MS considering the leadership position they are in - it should mean they can take more risks.
Little Big Planet is very refreshing.
moku said:
Usually when a company is suffering in the marketplace, there is more of a focus on first party stuff, and the first party puts in a lot of extra effort and tries more niche/new IP titles. We saw this with both the N64 and the Dreamcast.
I didn't expect PS3 numbers to be that low. That's kind of worrying.
So... Ridge Racer strike 1. Virtua Fighter strike 2. Gundam strike 3. Is Sony out'a there? Walking back to the dug out? What's the next game coming out for Sony where they can have another swing at the ball?
I'm starting to be concerned about where my next Silent Hill fix will be coming from. Or maybe that's just a preposterous thought... Maybe.
So... Ridge Racer strike 1. Virtua Fighter strike 2. Gundam strike 3. Is Sony out'a there? Walking back to the dug out? What's the next game coming out for Sony where they can have another swing at the ball?
I'm starting to be concerned about where my next Silent Hill fix will be coming from. Or maybe that's just a preposterous thought... Maybe.
Moor-Angol
Banned
SuomiDude said:
Another point is: PSP was still trained by MHP2 hype, Wii didn't have any strong release in the week
In April Nintendo will raise Wii manufactoring, so let's prepare to see Wii sales at least at 60k per week for long time
chibcicylist
Banned
An unnamed website says the Wii is actually in 2nd place and the PSP is back to third with just under 65K for the latter.
FE is at number 11 in the software charts, 1000 behind Brain Training 2's amazing legs.
FE is at number 11 in the software charts, 1000 behind Brain Training 2's amazing legs.
Can someone explain to me how Nintendo is splitting Wii's up for each territory?
If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.
How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?
Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.
Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.
It would seem the biggest problem with getting an accurate overall global picture is the lack of sales figures from everywhere not North America/Japan.
If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.
How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?
Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.
Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.
It would seem the biggest problem with getting an accurate overall global picture is the lack of sales figures from everywhere not North America/Japan.
vanguardian1
poor, homeless and tasteless
vanguardian1
poor, homeless and tasteless
verplant said:
Uhm, no, their press release stated "produced 4 million, sold 3.2 million to consumers, missing 800k in transit/warehouse".
Frankfurter
Member
moku said:
They are probably producing arround a million at the moment, so that's only sth. like 225k per week. If USA and Japan ate up 160k of that for January, than that just leaves 65k for the whole rest of the world. ~6-10k alone probably went to Canada, another ~6-10k to Australia and NZ, so that only leaves ~50k for Europe (which is still also facing pretty huge shortages as it seems).
Short answer to your question: nope, they probably can't get 100k per week to the USA and Japan at the moment because that wouldn't leave enough units for the rest of the world.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
While I would not be surprised to see some held back for that game's launch, it doesn't appear to be in the immediate future. I'm not sure if it was one of the recent Japanese magazine news threads or what, but I'm sure there was recent word the game was at ~80% completion.legend166 said:
Latest word is that it's still at 1 million each month. Considering months average to about 4 1/3 weeks, if Japan and NA got 100K each week that would account for something like 867K each month.moku said:
Using your numbers of 70K/w Japan and 90K/w NA, that would account for 700K each month. Europe and the smaller markets are getting the short end of the stick if anything.moku said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Hey guys--the new week is out. Let's move the conversation over there, no?