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[starship]

blah blah blah

i just don't see any evidence in the good ol' u s of a that software releases on a home console produce noticeable increases in sales of a home console over and above existing trends.

go ahead, look at sales of ps2, xbox, and gamecube. point me to any increase in sales outside of seasonal trends that is not tied to a price drop or, in the case of the ps2 during the slimline changeover, the end of shortages. i can't find one. all of the upticks are during the holidays and they have a near uniform correlation to sales during the non-holiday months. software sells systems, but the effect of software is not felt all at once; it is felt before, during, and after the game's release as something that affects the console's momentum, it doesn't seem to greatly impact sales numbers the actual month the game is released. but i'd be interested to see someone else's take on it.

but for this, and strictly because i'm more aware of these two systems' release schedules, let's look at a few non-holiday major software releases for xbox and gamecube.

august 2002. super mario sunshine released towards the end of the month. august npd for gamecube -> down from july. september npd (five week reporting period, adjusted) -> up 4% from august. september also saw the release of star fox adventures, which i believe pulled very good numbers. the internet may hate it, but it reviewed and sold really well.

march 2003. legend of zelda: the wind waker released towards the end of the month. march npd for gamecube -> numerically flat versus february, but march was a 5 week reporting period, so it was actually down considerably in the weeklies. april npd was down even more.

july 2003. star wars knights of the old republic released on xbox. it set records for initial sales on xbox at the time of its release, went on to sell more than a million copies all told. july npd -> up 3% versus june (adjusted from 5 weeks to 4 weeks).

march 2004. ninja gaiden released on xbox. sold several hundred thousand units in its first month. march npd (five week reporting period) -> numerically nearly flat to february, weekly sales down more than 20%.

september 2004. fable released on xbox. has sold well over a million copies, hundreds of thousands the first month. september npd -> weekly average down 2% versus august.

the reason i listed non-holiday releases is that you can see if there is any tangible selling power of these games over and beyond established patterns more easily than you can for holiday releases, where consoles sell in massive quantities due to moms and dads and grandmas and everybody else buying game consoles for their loved ones.

it might work differently on portables, and it might work differently in japan, but games don't immediately sell home systems in the united states. look at xbox 360 last year. every month, there was a contingent of people saying "this is when the thing takes off." 360 supporters would look forward to npd for hope. 360, um, non-supporters would look forward to npd with comments such as "if it doesn't sell well this month, d00m." oblivion, graw, dead rising, madden!, saint's row, all of them came and all of them went. flat sales. gears of war launched during the holiday. stuff sells during the holiday. how's 360 doing in early 2007, riding the wave of success surely caused by the monstrous gears? eh, sales are starting to sag off established non-holiday 50k/week patterns.

bubububut halo 3 is real big. grand theft auto iv is real big. established patterns are bigger. and $400 is pretty dern big, too.

oh, guess what i think lesser titles like metal gear solid 4 will do for a $600 or even $500 ps3?

the only thing that will spur sales of these systems over and beyond what they're doing now are price reductions.

again, that's my opinion, feel free to offer another take.

.

 

[sphinx]

So your argument comes down to:

"no, wait for Halo 3, really" + generic angst/rage

Am I getting this right?

only September NPD will tell us if there was a spike in 360 hardware sales. It can go either way.

the reference point, however, will be the ammount of software units Halo 3 sells . let's say the game sells 2 million copies and the hardware figures go from 200k in august to 400k in september, that would suggest that somewhere around 80-90 % of halo 3 buyers already had a 360, which would demonstrate pantherlotus is right and Jimbo is wrong.

for jimbo to be right, hardware figures would have to be 1.5 million 360 units together with 1.7 - 2.0 million halo 3 units, for example.

Is Halo that strong? I don't know, I wouldn't expect it anyway.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

the reference point, however, will be the ammount of software units Halo 3 sells . let's say the game sells 2 million copies and the hardware figures go from 200k in august to 400k in september, that would suggest that somewhere around 80-90 % of halo 3 buyers already had a 360, which would demonstrate pantherlotus is right and Jimbo is wrong.

Exactly.

Spoiler

PL is right

 

[jimbo]

First of all, there was a spike in Crackdown sales because the game came out quite a long time ago, hence the normal sales figures weren't that high for that time.

Second, can you tell me what percentage of the Halo 3 Beta population does the spike in Crackdown sales count for?

Third, Crackdown costs 59 euros. The 360 costs 350-400 euros. Which do you think people will buy on a whim?

Again, read this carefully, slowly, however you need to.

THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DO NOT INVEST IN VIDEOGAME CONSOLES. They do not buy consoles for games that come out years into the future.

Quote it, do what you want with it. In September when Halo 3 comes out, and the 360 gets a hardware spike as a result, it will be proven right.

In the mean time I won't continue to argue against a flawed theory. It's flawed. Period.

 

[Jiggy]

Your post is way too long to try to debate all the point you made, but this one in particular stood out as completely wrong.

This way of thinking is pretty popular among gamers on GAF and it's extremely flawed. Most people DO NOT buy consoles for games that come out 2 years later. They buy consoles for what they can play on them now. Watch what happens to 360 hardware in September when Halo 3 comes.

"Most"? Supposing Halo 3 sells 2,000,000 copies (high number picked out of thin air) within a month and 360 spikes to 999,999 for the month--which I think is an extraordinarily ludicrous idea--even that would still mean "most" (1,000,001) of those buyers already owned a 360 beforehand.
If 360 spikes to something more like 500,000, well, there goes your idea. Maybe not the 2 years later part specifically, but at least that they had expected the game at a later time and bought the console at an earlier time.


Edit: Wow. I've been beaten, and with pretty much the exact example involving that two million figure...

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Again, read this carefully, slowly, however you need to.

THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DO NOT INVEST IN VIDEOGAME CONSOLES. They do not buy consoles for games that come out years into the future.

Quote it, do what you want with it. In September when Halo 3 comes out, and the 360 gets a hardware spike as a result, it will be proven right.

In the mean time I won't continue to argue against a flawed theory. It's flawed. Period.

Thanks. I appreciate that.

 

[Tf53]

Again, read this carefully, slowly, however you need to.

THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DO NOT INVEST IN VIDEOGAME CONSOLES. They do not buy consoles for games that come out years into the future.

Quote it, do what you want with it. In September when Halo 3 comes out, and the 360 gets a hardware spike as a result, it will be proven right.

In the mean time I won't continue to argue against a flawed theory. It's flawed. Period.

I'll just ask one more thing: define hardware spike. 10, 1000 or 100,000 consoles?

 

[jimbo]

only September NPD will tell us if there was a spike in 360 hardware sales. It can go either way.

the reference point, however, will be the ammount of software units Halo 3 sells . let's say the game sells 2 million copies and the hardware figures go from 200k in august to 400k in september, that would suggest that somewhere around 80-90 % of halo 3 buyers already had a 360, which would demonstrate pantherlotus is right and Jimbo is wrong.

for jimbo to be right, hardware figures would have to be 1.5 million 360 units together with 1.7 - 2.0 million halo 3 units, for example.

Is Halo that strong? I don't know, I wouldn't expect it anyway.

I said, wow.

So now if a game outsells the system's hadware sales....it must mean that people already bought the system in advance FOR that game?

:lol at all the people buying consoles for the million seller games that don't even exist yet.

 

[jimbo]

I'll just ask one more thing: define hardware spike. 10, 1000 or 100,000 consoles?

A spike can be ANY number of increased sales of consoles over average, as a result of the release of a game. The actual number VARIES depending on the popularity of the game. If you're looking for a number, you won't get it, since I would be pulling it out of my ass.

 

[jimbo]

"Most"? Supposing Halo 3 sells 2,000,000 copies (high number picked out of thin air) within a month and 360 spikes to 999,999 for the month--which I think is an extraordinarily ludicrous idea--even that would still mean "most" (1,000,001) of those buyers already owned a 360 beforehand.
If 360 spikes to something more like 500,000, well, there goes your idea. Maybe not the 2 years later part specifically, but at least that they had expected the game at a later time and bought the console at an earlier time.


Edit: Wow. I've been beaten, and with pretty much the exact example involving that two million figure...

So now people that bought a 360 FOR Oblivion, Madden, Gears of War, Dead Rising, Project Gotham Racing, etc are NOT allowed to buy Halo 3?

 

[Pureauthor]

jimbo, edit your posts, dude. No need to post three times in a row.

 

[sphinx]

Again, read this carefully, slowly, however you need to.

THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DO NOT INVEST IN VIDEOGAME CONSOLES. They do not buy consoles for games that come out years into the future.

Quote it, do what you want with it. In September when Halo 3 comes out, and the 360 gets a hardware spike as a result, it will be proven right.

In the mean time I won't continue to argue against a flawed theory. It's flawed. Period.

as I mentioned earlier:

for jimbo to be right, hardware figures would have to be 1.5 million 360 units together with 1.7 - 2.0 million halo 3 units, for example.

tie ratio has to be at least 0.5:1 or more for you to be right.

either you expect Halo 3 to sell 500k or hardware to sell 1.5 million in september.

I suggest you admit how insane this is to avoid further damage to your reputation.

 

[Tf53]

I said, wow.

So now if a game outsells the system's hadware sales....it must mean that people already bought the system in advance FOR that game?

:lol at all the people buying consoles for the million seller games that don't even exist yet.

So is everything black and white to you or do you also see shades of grey? If you argue that you are right if even one single person buys a 360 because of Halo 3, you most probably will be right. But it's really a pointless argument.

 

[jimbo]

as I mentioned earlier:



tie ratio has to be at least 0.5:1 or more for you to be right.

either you expect Halo 3 to sell 500k or hardware to sell 1.5 million in september.

I suggest you admit how insane this is to avoid further damage to your reputation.

Uhm, no it doesn't either. OK let me give you an example. If someone buys a 360 for Halo 3 in September, and then also purchases GOW 2 when it comes out.....that doesn't mean they bought a 360 for GOW 2.

In conclusion, just because there are a LOT of CURRENT 360 owners that will buy Halo 3, doesn't mean there are NOT a lot of Halo 3 fans that will buy a 360 when Halo 3 comes out. People that already own 360's bought it because there were OTHER games that interested them at that point in time. If they also happened to be a Halo fan, then all the better for them.

Besides, MS already released a statement saying half the 360 user base are NEW to the Xbox franchise.

So the MAJORITY of the Halo-box user base have not even bought a 360 yet.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Uhm, no it doesn't either. OK let me give you an example. If someone buys a 360 for Halo 3 in September, and then also purchases GOW 2 when it comes out.....that doesn't mean they bought a 360 for GOW 2.

Bingo.

If 360 hardware sales don't spike to a near 1:1 with Halo 3 sales come September, it doesn't mean that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier for Halo 3, it just means that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier who are now buying Halo 3 - you can't possibly say that those people bought the system in anticipation of that one game, all you can say is that those people eventually did buy Halo 3.

 

[sphinx]

Uhm, no it doesn't either. OK let me give you an example. If someone buys a 360 for Halo 3 in September, and then also purchases GOW 2 when it comes out.....that doesn't mean they bought a 360 for GOW 2.

I think I am not following...

what does any onther game has to do with halo 3 and its direct influence in 360 hardware sales?

you have been told twice that for you to be right, more than 50% of halo 3 sales must be accompanied by a purchase of a 360 unit.

if halo 3 is almost destined to sell at least 1.5 million in its first appearance in NPD lists, you think hardware will see a sales spike of 751k- 800k units?

Bingo.

If 360 hardware sales don't spike to a near 1:1 with Halo 3 sales come September, it doesn't mean that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier for Halo 3, it just means that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier who are now buying Halo 3 - you can't possibly say that those people bought the system in anticipation of that one game, all you can say is that those people eventually did buy Halo 3.

but we will never know how many of those users bought a 360 having halo 3 in mind and how many bought it for something else... the discussion is near pointless..

 

[jimbo]

Bingo.

If 360 hardware sales don't spike to a near 1:1 with Halo 3 sales come September, it doesn't mean that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier for Halo 3, it just means that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier who are now buying Halo 3 - you can't possibly say that those people bought the system in anticipation of that one game, all you can say is that those people eventually did buy Halo 3.

Glad there's someone else with common sense.

 

[charlequin]

THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE DO NOT INVEST IN VIDEOGAME CONSOLES. They do not buy consoles for games that come out years into the future.

If this were true, there'd be basically no reason to ever buy a console within the first year of its lifespan.

You are correct inasmuch as almost nobody buys an Xbox 360 over a year in advance solely and exclusively for the purpose of playing Halo 3 later on, but that's an obviously idiotic position that no one would actually take.

The actual model is something like this: a gamer (someone who plays often enough that they don't have to be won over to the idea of buying a system) is going to buy some system. At the time of their purchase, which system that will be is going to be influenced by some combination of what games are already out for that system and what games will come out for it later. The earlier you buy the system, the more the games that will come out on it later have to be that factor, because there aren't many games already out.

Thus, someone who is deciding between a 360 and a PS3 at launch is likely making that decision based on what "eventual" software they'll want; for many people, that's going to come down, in whole or in part, to Halo 3.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Uhm, no it doesn't either. OK let me give you an example. If someone buys a 360 for Halo 3 in September, and then also purchases GOW 2 when it comes out.....that doesn't mean they bought a 360 for GOW 2.

In conclusion, just because there are a LOT of CURRENT 360 owners that will buy Halo 3, doesn't mean there are NOT a lot of Halo 3 fans that will buy a 360 when Halo 3 comes out. People that already own 360's bought it because there were OTHER games that interested them at that point in time. If they also happened to be a Halo fan, then all the better for them.

Besides, MS already released a statement saying half the 360 user base are NEW to the Xbox franchise.

So the MAJORITY of the Halo-box user base have not even bought a 360 yet.

How in the world would they figure that out?

 

[wazoo]

If this were true, there'd be basically no reason to ever buy a console within the first year of its lifespan.

you are right. If people were logical to maximize their investment they will wait the last year of console life. Console would be cheap and games virtually free (unless you buy a Nintendo console of course).

The actual model is something like this: a gamer (someone who plays often enough that they don't have to be won over to the idea of buying a system) is going to buy some system. At the time of their purchase, which system that will be is going to be influenced by some combination of what games are already out for that system and what games will come out for it later.

For gamers, it is true, for most people, they buy the console, then they look at what they can play on it.

 

[sphinx]

Bingo.

If 360 hardware sales don't spike to a near 1:1 with Halo 3 sales come September, it doesn't mean that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier for Halo 3, it just means that there are hundreds of thousands of 360 owners who bought it earlier who are now buying Halo 3 - you can't possibly say that those people bought the system in anticipation of that one game, all you can say is that those people eventually did buy Halo 3.

besides, wouldn't this paragraph contradict jimbo's initial stance?

Jimbo says 360 will sell more in september because of halo 3.

then the quoted paragraph says that most of halo 3 sales will/could come from people that bought the system earlier for something else but just happen to buy halo 3 because it's in stores. what then? if the bigger chunk of halo 3 sales come from existings 360 users, we won't see a hardware sales spike, like jimbo claims, right?

 

[Stumpokapow]

How in the world would they figure that out?

Presumably via focus groups or consumer response cards. There are some pretty obvious sampling problems with either of those methods, and I wouldn't really take that statistic too seriously.

 

[jimbo]

I think I am not following...

what does any onther game has to do with halo 3 and its direct influence in 360 hardware sales?

you have been told twice that for you to be right, more than 50% of halo 3 sales must be accompanied by a purchase of a 360 unit.

if halo 3 is almost destined to sell at least 1.5 million in its first appearance in NPD lists, you think hardware will see a sales spike of 751k- 800k units?

I have been told more than twice something that was WRONG. And continues to be so.

And then it doesn't necesariy have to happen in the first month either. There WILL be more CURRENT owners that buy Halo 3 in the first month than NEW owners. That much is guaranteed, and no one is arguing against that. But that's ALL it means. It doesn't mean all those current owners bought the system in ANTICIPATION of Halo 3. That is where the theory breaks down. You guys are trying to tie something together just because it sounds good.

If you don't understand my logic let's talk FACTS:

1. Variable X: Microsoft, the console manufaturer stated that half the 360 user base is composed of gamers NEW to the Xbox franchise.....therefore NEW to Halo.

Follow me so far? Ok great.

2. Vaiable Y: The total WW sales for Halo 2 is somewhere around 9 million last time I head....and the total 360 WW user base is also around 9 million.

3. Equation(X + Y = Z): So if HALF the 360 owners are NEW, that means only about 4.5 million of them would even QUALIFY as previous HALO fans(I say qualify, because probably not all of them BOUGHT or LIKED Halo either)

4. Conclusion(Z): Which means that at least 4.5 million peope who bought HALO 2 DO NOT own a 360.

Now explain to me WHY these other 4.5 million of them HAVE to buy Halo 3 in the first month for me to be right? What IF only 500k of them buy it the first month....and the other 4 million buy it over the next 4 years? Does that prove you right and me wrong? No. It doesn't.

 

[Parl]

Halo 3 buyers can be categorised in a few different groups:

1) Those who have no 360, and will buy one when Halo 3 comes out because they either have little interest or not enough interest in pre-Halo 3 software to warrent a purchase.

2) Those who buy a 360 before Halo 3 comes out, who wouldn't have purchased a 360 if Halo 3 wasn't coming out because they have little interest (or most likely) not enough interest in pre-Halo 3 software to warrent a purchase. They'd be like "I kinda like what's out on 360 so far, but it ain't good enough for me to shell $400 for a system. But, Halo 3 is coming out, so I'll buy one now, and play some 360 games before Halo 3 comes out."

3) Those who bought a 360 because of other titles like Gears, Dead Rising, etc. But are very interested in Halo 3, possibly even more so (or less so) than Dead Rising and Gears (etc) and will buy Halo 3 when it comes out.

4) Those who will buy Halo 3 after it comes out because they heard it was good, or they saved up enough money for a 360/the game, or they got bored with their current games, or they got off their lazy ass and decided to go buy it, etc.

We'll exclude 4 from September sales, of course. 3 will be biggest, I think. Then there's the other 2.

Halo 2 month was a 44% increase in hardware sales, year on year (November), compared to a 23% increase for October. I have no idea what other games and stuff came out, and the competition levels were all over the place for both years, especially the holiday period, so this is far from conclusive, but this is only a 17% increase in hardware sales in Halo 2 month from what would be expected from the October increase.

However, of course, most of Halo 2's potential customers already had a Xbox because of the first Halo. The question to be asked is how Halo has the 360 been? How well has Xbox 360 catered to the Halo type thus far? If you think it hasn't done very well, then you may expect huge 360 hardware sales in September.

 

[jimbo]

besides, wouldn't this paragraph contradict jimbo's initial stance?

Jimbo says 360 will sell more in september because of halo 3.

then the quoted paragraph says that most of halo 3 sales will/could come from people that bought the system earlier for something else but just happen to buy halo 3 because it's in stores. what then? if the bigger chunk of halo 3 sales come from existings 360 users, we won't see a hardware sales spike, like jimbo claims, right?

Not only does it NOT contradict it, but you again, are creating IDEALISTIC paramaters. Totally NOT representative of how things actually work in the real world.

For one all I said is that Halo 3 will cause a spike. Someone else said it would have to be a certain number. A spike in hardware could very well be 500k units the first month. And that's all. If that's all it does, it's STILL considered a spike. And it STILL sold 360's.

The second part to that is this. Where is it written that a Halo fan HAS to buy Halo 3 and a 360 THE FIRST MONTH IT COMES OUT?

What if that Halo 3 fan wants a cheaper console? Does he become disqualified from buying a 360 for Halo 3, because he DID NOT buy it THE FIRST MONTH?

 

[nli10]

Ok,

Hypothesis one - sales for the week of Halo 3's release (or is it month in the USA?) are statistically similar to the past 12 months of sales (to get rid of seasonality) to 95% confidence intervals.

Hypothesis two - sales for the week of Halo 3's release (or is it month in the USA?) are statistically different to the past 12 months of sales (to get rid of seasonality) to 95% confidence intervals.

I can do this for you guys if you'd like when the thing actually launches (most of the analysts here could).

I'd estimate that to be significant divergance from the population mean would approximate doubling the month previous hardware sales - under this definition do you guys think sales spike, or no sales spike?

I don't follow the 360 in the UK or the USA (Japan = 3,500 p/w) so I have no data to base any predictions on.

 

[StevieP]

Thank you, jimbo, for re-invigorating this thread! Here's to page 30.

 

[sphinx]

I have been told more than twice something that was WRONG. And continues to be so.

And then it doesn't necesariy have to happen in the first month either. There WILL be more CURRENT owners that buy Halo 3 in the first month than NEW owners. That much is guaranteed, and no one is arguing against that. But that's ALL it means. It doesn't mean all those current owners bought the system in ANTICIPATION of Halo 3. That is where the theory breaks down. You guys are trying to tie something together just because it sounds good.

If you don't understand my logic let's talk FACTS:

1. Variable X: Microsoft, the console manufaturer stated that half the 360 user base is composed of gamers NEW to the Xbox franchise.....therefore NEW to Halo.

Follow me so far? Ok great.

2. Vaiable Y: The total WW sales for Halo 2 is somewhere around 9 million last time I head....and the total 360 WW user base is also around 9 million.

3. Equation(X + Y = Z): So if HALF the 360 owners are NEW, that means only about 4.5 million of them would even QUALIFY as previous HALO fans(I say qualify, because probably not all of them BOUGHT or LIKED Halo either)

4. Conclusion(Z): Which means that at least 4.5 million peope who bought HALO 2 DO NOT own a 360.

Now explain to me WHY these other 4.5 million of them HAVE to buy Halo 3 in the first month for me to be right? What IF only 500k of them buy it the first month....and the other 4 million buy it over the next 4 years? Does that prove you right and me wrong? No. It doesn't.

I thought your initial stance was that 360 would see a considerable sales spike in september because of halo 3 when in reality all you are arguing about is that the relation halo 3 <-> 360 units isn´t a one month affair but a long term business, which in turn contributes to your theory that people buy 360 only when halo 3 is in stores.

I guess we were talking about different things then, it's o.k now, I get your point.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Jimbo,

in your opinion, are Halo 3 sales going to sell enough 360's to keep the console ahead of Nintendo's Wii in the US?

That is a tangible hypothesis. I'm willing to bet you right now to the contrary, especially since it's reasonable.

 

[jimbo]

I thought your initial stance was that 360 would see a considerable sales spike in september because of halo 3 when in reality all you are arguing about is that the relation halo 3 <-> 360 units isn´t a one month affair but a long term business, which in turn contributes to your theory that people buy 360 only when halo 3 is in stores.

I guess we were talking about different things then, it's o.k now, I get your point.

Yes it was my stance and it still is. The 360 WILL see a considerable spike in hardware in September AND will continue to get hardware sales BECAUSE of Halo AFTER September.

Not only do both of those things NOT contradict each other in any way, not only is it pretty realistic, but it is EXACTLY what WILL happen.

It's for the same reason why not all gamers buy games on the FIRST DAY or the FIRST MONTH.

Just because I am just now buying a 360 for GOW does not mean I am not buying it for GOW because GOW came out in November, and there's some rule on GAF that says I needed to buy my 360 in the first month GOW came out for me to be able to have that as my reason for owning a 360.

 

[cvxfreak]

The lead in Japan will be too great for Halo 3 alone to overcome.

 

[Evlar]

Yes it was my stance and it still is. The 360 WILL see a considerable spike in hardware in September AND will continue to get hardware sales BECAUSE of Halo AFTER September.

Not only do both of those things NOT contradict each other in any way, not only is it pretty realistic, but it is EXACTLY what WILL happen.

It's for the same reason why not all gamers buy games on the FIRST DAY or the FIRST MONTH.

Just because I am just now buying a 360 for GOW does not mean I am not buying it for GOW because GOW came out in November, and there's some rule on GAF that says I needed to buy my 360 in the first month GOW came out for me to be able to have that as my reason for owning a 360.

Pokemon.

 

[jimbo]

Jimbo,

in your opinion, are Halo 3 sales going to sell enough 360's to keep the console ahead of Nintendo's Wii in the US?

That is a tangible hypothesis. I'm willing to bet you right now to the contrary, especially since it's reasonable.

Uhm....I don't think the 360 even NEEDS Halo 3 to stay ahead of the Wii in the US in the long run. There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US. Halo 3 and GTA 4 will only help enlarge that gap.

Does that answer your question?

 

[First Children]

Did GT3, GTA3, MGS2 and FFX help playstation2 sales back in 2001?

 

[Aeris130]

Uhm....I don't think the 360 even NEEDS Halo 3 to stay ahead of the Wii in the US in the long run. There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US. Halo 3 and GTA 4 will only help enlarge that gap.

Does that answer your question?

Wouldn't that be assuming that the 360 and Wii tried to cater to the same part of the general public? I think that any console could sell like crazy without eating into Wii's sales (too much), at least not as much as with the Gamecube.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Uhm....I don't think the 360 even NEEDS Halo 3 to stay ahead of the Wii in the US in the long run. There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US. Halo 3 and GTA 4 will only help enlarge that gap.

Does that answer your question?

360 titles to be more appealing than any Wii titles? Allllright.

 

[jimbo]

360 titles to be more appealing than any Wii titles? Allllright.

Yep. In the US.

 

[ITA84]

I hope Microsoft does a price-drop just before Halo 3 is released, so that noone will be proven right or wrong.

 

[mj1108]

Oh dear what happened here?

Yep. In the US.

Thread title: Media Create Sales 5/14 - 5/20

You can't read, can you?? Keep NPD talk out of MC threads.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Yep. In the US.

So there won't be one Wii title that's more appealing than any the most appealing 360 games?

Has Wii Sports not already achieved this?

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

.

This is Analysis I, not Lineare Algebra. :lol

 

[jimbo]

Did GT3, GTA3, MGS2 and FFX help playstation2 sales back in 2001?

Everyone knows people bought PS2's just for movies ;p

Wouldn't that be assuming that the 360 and Wii tried to cater to the same part of the general public? I think that any console could sell like crazy without eating into Wii's sales, at least not as much as with the Gamecube.

Please don't tell me you are actually buying into the PR crap that the WII is NOT catering to gamers. Or that Nitendo is NOT trying to get the 100+ million of current gamers out there.

Yeah they are trying to expand the market.....but it doesn't take a genius to figure out they want the core gamer as much as Sony and MS. They will never make it by trying to sell ONLY to non-gamers and alpha moms.

So yeah, of course that's what it means. And that's exactly what's going on.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Uhm....I don't think the 360 even NEEDS Halo 3 to stay ahead of the Wii in the US in the long run. There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US. Halo 3 and GTA 4 will only help enlarge that gap.

Does that answer your question?

So then let's make a bet. I bet you that the Wii consistently outsells the 360 in October, November, and December this year.

In North America, of course, considering the rest of the world appears to be a foregone conclusion at this point.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

He didn't say Nintendo would sell exclusively to non-gamers. Your posts suck.

 

[donny2112]

There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US.

No there aren't. To gamers? Yes. The general public? No.

the Wii consistently outsells the 360 in October, November, and December this year.

Not in October. That's the second month of Halo 3 and the first month of GTA IV. A lot of gamers that have been holding out on "Next-Gen" will bite with those two on the 360.

No, I'm not willing to bet on it.

 

[jimbo]

So there won't be one Wii title that's more appealing than any the most appealing 360 games?

Has Wii Sports not already achieved this?

Dude, what the heck did I just say? GAMES. As in plural. Don't twist my words. If I say it's warm outside, don't reply with "so you're saying if I sit in front of the air conditioner I won't feel cold?"

Sure there may be a Wii game in the future that will prove more popular than the most popular 360 game.

PS: Although I'm not sure you can say that with Wii Sports in the US, since it happens to be a pack-in.

 

[Aeris130]

Please don't tell me you are actually buying into the PR crap that the WII is NOT catering to gamers. Or that Nitendo is NOT trying to get the 100+ million of current gamers out there.

Yeah they are trying to expand the market.....but it doesn't take a genius to figure out they want the core gamer as much as Sony and MS. They will never make it by trying to sell ONLY to non-gamers and alpha moms.

So yeah, of course that's what it means. And that's exactly what's going on.

Non-gamers aside, they're not exactly aiming for 360 nonwaggling (hard)core players, that's for sure (or maybe they did but failed horribly in the process). If Wii's are being bought by moms or dormant Nintendo-fans doesn't really matter, since I heavily doubt that anyone (with his/her priorities set fairly straight) would have a problem choosing between the two of them.

 

[jimbo]

So then let's make a bet. I bet you that the Wii consistently outsells the 360 in October, November, and December this year.

In North America, of course, considering the rest of the world appears to be a forgone conclusion at this point.

Are we talking monthly sales numbers? Or LTD numbers, because that's what I thought you were talking about.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

If we ignore the rest of the world, and just focus solely on the US (despite the thread title), the 360 is probably safe for about another 14 months or so.

Hence these charts (thanks go to Bildi):

Once we leave the US and hit worldwide sales, Jimbo's argument fall apart completely.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Dude, what the heck did I just say? GAMES. As in plural. Don't twist my words. If I say it's warm outside, don't reply with "so you're saying if I sit in front of the air conditioner I won't feel cold?"

Sure there may be a Wii game in the future that will prove more popular than the most popular 360 game.

PS: Although I'm not sure you can say that with Wii Sports in the US, since it happens to be a pack-in.

"There are plenty of other titles in the 360 line-up that will prove more appealing to the general public than Wii titles in the US."

You didn't say "the majority of Wii titles." You said Wii titles in general. Glad you backpedaled to claer it up.

Wii Sports is one of the major hardware drivers of Wii sales, and is certainly more "appealing to the general public" (your words) than Gears of War, which is 360's highest selling title.