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[cvxfreak]

2009 has been unprecedented in the history of the industry in Japan. In 12 months, we got :

- a Resident Evil main series entry
- a Mario main series entry
- a Dragon Quest main series entry
- a Final Fantasy main series entry
- a Monster Hunter main series entry
- a Tales of main series entry
- a Musou main series entry
- a Pokémon "remake" which still sells tons


Very frankly, this is most likely the year of the Forever. But why doesn't it feel so ?

Fixed.

 

[Stumpokapow]

2009 has been unprecedented in the history of the industry in Japan. In 12 months, we got :

- a Resident Evil main series entry
- a Mario main series entry
- a Dragon Quest main series entry
- a Final Fantasy main series entry
- a Monster Hunter main series entry
- a Pokémon "remake" which still sells tons


Very frankly, this is most likely the year of the Forever. But why doesn't it feel so ?

because new ideas are often more impressive than iterative improvements on old ones

 

[P90]

The interesting question for me is what lessons Nintendo are going to take from their experience with the Wii this gen. Will they retreat and become even more self-reliant - boosting development, forming more long-term partnerships with smaller devs and trying to fill gaps in their library themselves - or will they open up and reach out to third parties in ways they haven't to date? My instinct is that they will go with the former, but it's going to be fascinating to see...

In a number of ways, I prefer the former scenario. I would like them working, as they are, with Team Ninja; with Itagaki; with Makami; etc.; and finding diamonds in the rough.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What exactly is there about the Wii to make anyone actually want to buy the followup system?

I hear Nintendo has some pretty popular software.

Hardware capabilities toss up a bit of a wildcard. This gen the multiplatform HD games gave Microsoft a big boost worldwide, but left Sony the only legitimate HD option in Japan. If next gen FF XVI, Metal Gear Floating, and Resident Evil 7 are available on all three consoles, there goes much of the reason Sony was able to become a strongish #2 this year.

but as another poster said, I am quite surprised that the gap between the Wii and the PSP in Japan is narrower than it was than last year.

Well, right now they're both down similar amounts from year to year. So the difference has shrunk with it. A*0.6 - B*0.6 being less than A-B.

 

[Chris1964]

Yeah. It's gotta break at least 2,25 million to be 4th (735k second week) and that would be the eight miracle of the world for an FF game.

Fixed

 

[donny2112]

Note: YTD numbers are from NPD's definition of when the year started.

 

[ethelred]

Blast from the Past

Tee hee. The Easter thing still makes me laugh.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[Osuwari]

[IMGhttp://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f64/donny2112/Sales%20Numbers/JPNConsoles-36.png[/IMG]

Note: YTD numbers are from NPD's definition of when the year started.

the Wii Price Drop is missing...

 

[charlequin]

Tee hee. The Easter thing still makes me laugh.

Came here to post this.

 

[Chris1964]

Media Create PR:
http://www.value-press.com/pressrelease.php?article_id=50724

2009 Market Value
HW = 220.8 bln yen (-15.3% YoY)
SW = 350.4 bln yen (-4.7% YoY)
Total = 571.2 bln yen (-9.1% YoY)

2009 H1 was down comparing to 2008 and 2009 H2 was up comparing to 2008, even with the price drops of PS3, Wii and PSP (and the price rise of DSi LL). This year Japan had an amazing H2 which didn't manage to balance completely the very bad H1.

 

[AniHawk]

Fixed.

You're both forgetting a new Zelda.

 

[Chris1964]

You're both forgetting a new Zelda.

Replace Tales with Zelda and you have the complete list.

Last year we got this week's Famitsu leaked top 30 at Wednesday Dec 31. The leak is gone so we won't have anything Famitsu related except for top 10 without numbers from famitsu.com and maybe a few numbers from Sinobi (very doubtful).

Last year Media Create updated at Friday Jan 2, 2009, one day later from schedule. This year Friday is Jan 1, 2010. There is no way we get numbers that day. Media Create will give the numbers at Wednesday or Thursday or no numbers at all this week for possibly the biggest week of the year.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Replace Tales with Zelda and you have the complete list.

Last year we got this week's Famitsu leaked top 30 at Wednesday Dec 31. The leak is gone so we won't have anything Famitsu related except for top 10 without numbers from famitsu.com and maybe a few numbers from Sinobi (very doubtful).

Maybe Yahoo! jp will show last week top20, as they usually do during a week Famitsu is not published.

 

[Chris1964]

Maybe Yahoo! jp will show last week top20, as they usually do during a week Famitsu is not published.

When yahoo updates this week it will give us 14/12/09-20/12/09 top 20 (last week's numbers). The only way we get Famitsu numbers for the week 21/12/09-27/12/09 is from Sinobi.

 

[Nirolak]

Last year we got this week's Famitsu leaked top 30 at Wednesday Dec 31. The leak is gone so we won't have anything Famitsu related except for top 10 without numbers from famitsu.com and maybe a few numbers from Sinobi (very doubtful).

Last year Media Create updated at Friday Jan 2, 2009, one day later from schedule. This year Friday is Jan 1, 2010. There is no way we get numbers that day. Media Create will give the numbers at Wednesday or Thursday or no numbers at all this week for possibly the biggest week of the year.

So in other words, Sales-Age will be rather quiet for a while unless we somehow end up on a non numbers based discussion.

 

[Chris1964]

So in other words, Sales-Age will be rather quiet for a while unless we somehow end up on a non numbers based discussion.

We can only hope for Media Create or even Famitsu today if they decide to give us a report today for NSMBW breaking the 2m mark.

 

[Moor-Angol]

When yahoo updates this week it will give us 14/12/09-20/12/09 top 20 (last week's numbers). The only way we get Famitsu numbers for the week 21/12/09-27/12/09 is from Sinobi.

ok, but next week they will update with numbers from 21 to 27 December.
they don't have cumulative weeks as Famitsu does during japanese holidays, so it's just to be patient a little more than usual.

 

[Chris1964]

ok, but next week they will update with numbers from 21 to 27 December.
they don't have cumulative weeks as Famitsu does during japanese holidays, so it's just to be patient a little more than usual.

One week (and especially this week) without numbers is a long time...

 

[Nirolak]

One week (and especially this week) without numbers is a long time...

This reminds me though that we're essentially at the end of 2009.

During the early part of 2009, we made a lot of statements about what we thought the platform holders and third parties should do in regards to their platform strategies and game releases, and a lot of these statements included predictions about how things like Monster Hunter 3 or a PS3 price cut might effect the market.

Now that we essentially have all the results of 2009, it might be interesting to revisit these questions and see what we think the platform holders and third parties should do in 2010. We could even get down to the publish level again for the fun of it and speculate on what types of things (or even specific games) they should be releasing on different platforms, especially in light of how similar games have sold on the systems during 2009.

I have a couple of questions I think are interesting in this regard, but I think I will save them for tomorrow in case we get Mario numbers tonight.

 

[cvxfreak]

So, will New Super Mario Bros. Wii outsell Dragon Quest IX?

 

[m.i.s.]

what worries me is how can the wii's lately negative image affect the sucessor? the next system could actually perform worse if the curent wii stigmas aren't addressed.

This is the danger for Nintendo with, in retrospect, the decline of sales from N64's 33 million to GCN's 20 million. Although it's not necessarily a hypothesis I agree with, Nintendo acquired the infamous "kiddy-image" label from the N64 that persisted into the GC generation.

 

[ReyBrujo]

This is the danger for Nintendo with, in retrospect, the decline of sales from N64's 33 million to GCN's 20 million. Although it's not necessarily a hypothesis I agree with, Nintendo acquired the infamous "kiddy-image" label from the N64 that persisted into the GC generation.

Uh, that actually happened back in the SNES era, became noticeable with the release of Mortal Kombat.

 

[Culex]

So, will New Super Mario Bros. Wii outsell Dragon Quest IX?

It may happen. DQIX is still selling, plus it's over 4 million now. If NSMBW follows the heavenly legs of its DS predecessor, then it will sell more.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This is the danger for Nintendo with, in retrospect, the decline of sales from N64's 33 million to GCN's 20 million. Although it's not necessarily a hypothesis I agree with, Nintendo acquired the infamous "kiddy-image" label from the N64 that persisted into the GC generation.

I think the bigger thing with GCN (worldwide moreso than Japan) was that MS came in and forced them to split the "Not Sony" marketshare, and did so on a first-person shooter strength that belonged to N64 in the previous generation.

So, will New Super Mario Bros. Wii outsell Dragon Quest IX?

I find it hard to fathom, but I am a guy who always finds the barely-precedented very unlikely to happen. What home console games have been over 4 million? Dragon Quest VII? Super Mario Bros.?

 

[Nirolak]

I think the bigger thing with GCN (worldwide moreso than Japan) was that MS came in and forced them to split the "Not Sony" marketshare, and did so on a first-person shooter strength that belonged to N64 in the previous generation.

I find it hard to fathom, but I am a guy who always finds the barely-precedented very unlikely to happen. What home console games have been over 4 million? Dragon Quest VII? Super Mario Bros.?

Yeah, it'd essentially have to sell 500,000 more than the best selling PS2 game to do that.

 

[Onesimos]

What home console games have been over 4 million? Dragon Quest VII? Super Mario Bros.?

There is only home console game in Japan that sold more than four million copies and that is Super Mario Bros. It seems other than Super Mario Bros., the four million mark has been a "no man's land" for home console games.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, it'd essentially have to sell 500,000 more than the best selling PS2 game to do that.

I just don't see how it doesn't get there if its sitting at 3 million at the start of 2010.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

26. [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2 - 332,016
27. [PS3] Tales of Vesperia - 331,918

RM2 still the top selling post-PS2 Tales Of game for now, by 98 units, well single SKU anyway.

 

[jesusraz]

Some really interesting sales updates there!

06. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (BEST) - 967,894 (1,057,270)
07. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 - 931,705
08. [PSP] Dissidia Final Fantasy - 920,201
11. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG3!!! - 705,050
12. [NDS] Kirby Super Star Ultra - 674,920 (1,149,668)
15. [NDS] Style Savvy - 602,992 (843,731)
16. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii - 602,744
19. [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days - 538,800
22. [NDS] Professor Layton & the Final Time Journey - 439,263 (786,623)
23. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky - 384,687
26. [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2 - 332,016
27. [PS3] Tales of Vesperia - 331,918

Capcom must be happy with how well its Monster Hunter series has fared this year! I'm also quite surprised to see the off-chart growth Dissidia had. Combined with its re-release sales figures it's over a million, isn't it?

Kirby did very well. Must be past the previous game by now (Mouse Attack here in Europe, I can't seem to recall the US name right now). I thought M&L3 would have edged closer to the million mark by now, but over 700,000 is still amazing when compared to Partners in Time. The same can't be said for Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, which seems to have been milked just a little too much now. The third Layton also seems comparatively low when looking at the first two games in the trilogy.

Is just over half a million for Kingdom Hearts DS good? I thought it might have ended closer to the 750,000 mark after what seemed like a strong start, but it appears to have dropped off quite quickly.

 

[danielijohnson]

16. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii - 602,744

Wow, I can't imagine why the sequel was a sales failure.

[/sarcasm]

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

Dissidia UT would have to have done about 80k to get the game over a million, IIRC it was under 50k, which isn't suprising given how it was mostly just balance tweaks. Now if the Lightning in Dissidia fakery had actually been true they might have got there. Still it might still make it eventually.

 

[danielijohnson]

Can we speculate at all where Monster Hunter Tri is sitting year-end? A small bump from holidays, over a period of four weeks, maybe 950K?

 

[schuelma]

Can we speculate at all where Monster Hunter Tri is sitting year-end? A small bump from holidays, over a period of four weeks, maybe 950K?

Using Famitsu, it might get to 965-970K

 

[danielijohnson]

Using Famitsu, it might get to 965-970K

Yeah I saw that on the previous page. It's a pretty large discrepancy between MC and Famitsu considering Famitsu's data for Tri stopped at the beginning of November and MC's stopped at the end...

So according to Famitsu's data 1 million is pretty much a lock in 2010 I would think.

 

[gerg]

I still haven't heard a single argument for why this won't happen. What exactly is there about the Wii to make anyone actually want to buy the followup system.

I'm not quite sure I understand this pessimism, although I agree that Nintendo will have a much harder time next generation than this. Maybe that's where they're spending all their money, focusing on their next home console?

I always wonder if Miyamoto's desire for a "sub $100" home console will ever be fulfilled. That would be one way to beat the commpetition. :lol

In any case, I think it may be a case of misrepresentation to state that Nintendo's preferred strategy is one whereby third parties can "take it or leave it" in regards to their development support - the respective fates of the DS and the Wii have been decided by the amount of support they have garnered from third parties, and even if that fact was accidental I doubt that Nintendo is unaware of it. I think that Nintendo absolutely does want third parties to support it (and in a sense other than that of "I want to win the lottery") but it wants that support without having to pay extra for it; it wants third parties to come to it, and not the other way around. Running a console by its own would require far too much effort for Nintendo. :lol

This is not to deny that Nintendo's current platform strategy may be rubbish, but that while charlequin's analysis of what Nintendo should do if it wants to run a platform on its own may be correct in its own right as well, I don't think that that's what Nintendo wants.

Of course, the strategy that charlequin outlines may still be more conclusive to Nintendo,s actual strategy.

 

[Chris1964]

I just don't see how it doesn't get there if its sitting at 3 million at the start of 2010.

Famitsu and Media Create (and Dengeki) must start tracking negative sales for NSMBW so that that it doesn't sell 4 million (until the first half of 2010).

 

[Grampasso]

At this point I don't think NSMBW will sell less than 4.5M LTD =)

 

[dolemite]

Are we doing any predictions for this week?

 

[oldie-newbie]

No predictions for this week.

Hope that we can have some numbers...

 

[Dalthien]

Are we doing any predictions for this week?

Just a gut feeling, but I think Nintendo is going to have a MONSTER week. Both hardware and software.

 

[Nirolak]

Since it seems we didn't get any Mario sales numbers, I thought I'd put out a question for the speculation thing I mentioned yesterday in case anyone is interested. I was going to put out two of them, but after thinking about it (and forgetting my second question), I thought putting out one at a time would probably be the best.

Question: Given the sales of Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Tales of Graces, Taiko 2, or any other third party Wii games released in 2009, what do you think third party Japanese publishers should release for the Wii in 2010? Both general descriptions (e.g. "They should release games with local co-op.") and/or very specific games (e.g. "Capcom should release Monster Hunter 3G.") would be interesting to read.

Also, if anyone else is interested in discussing questions like these and has some questions of their own, feel free to add them.

 

[schuelma]

Since it seems we didn't get any Mario sales numbers, I thought I'd put out a question for the speculation thing I mentioned yesterday in case anyone is interested. I was going to put out two of them, but after thinking about it (and forgetting my second question), I thought putting out one at a time would probably be the best.

Question: Given the sales of Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Tales of Graces, Taiko 2, or any other third party Wii games released in 2009, what do you think third party Japanese publishers should release for the Wii in 2010? Both general descriptions (e.g. "They should release games with local co-op.") and/or very specific games (e.g. "Capcom should release Monster Hunter 3G.") would be interesting to read.

Also, if anyone else is interested in discussing questions like these and has some questions of their own, feel free to add them.

Too early in the morning for me to give a detailed answer to this, (though I think in general the only viable strategy is for 3rd parties that have had successes on the platform to keep exploiting that, i.e more Monster Hunter and Resident Evil), but I do want to clarify Taiko 2 numbers- while it started incredibly slowly, if the media create number leak is to be believed its picking up a lot of steam and should comfortably cross 200K in the next 2 weeks and possibly sell out that initial shipment. Now, its not going to sell 600K plus like the first, but I don't know if its going to be the bomba it initially was.

 

[thestopsign]

Since it seems we didn't get any Mario sales numbers, I thought I'd put out a question for the speculation thing I mentioned yesterday in case anyone is interested. I was going to put out two of them, but after thinking about it (and forgetting my second question), I thought putting out one at a time would probably be the best.

Question: Given the sales of Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Tales of Graces, Taiko 2, or any other third party Wii games released in 2009, what do you think third party Japanese publishers should release for the Wii in 2010? Both general descriptions (e.g. "They should release games with local co-op.") and/or very specific games (e.g. "Capcom should release Monster Hunter 3G.") would be interesting to read.

Also, if anyone else is interested in discussing questions like these and has some questions of their own, feel free to add them.

Monster Hunter 3G is the only thing that is a definite. Other companies were testing the waters with these latest titles. That means if they were happy with the sales, which I don't see why any of them besides Capcom would be, then they might green light a project now. This isn't good for the Wii, as I see pretty much nothing coming for it until Monster Hunter 3G hits sometime next summer. I think we are going to see Kingdom Hearts 3 announced very soon, and there's a high possibility that it's going to be on the Wii. Same with Project Needlemouse for Sega. Then maybe a Dragon Quest Swords 2 sometime soon as well. I doubt KH3 would be able to release this year, and the other is a 2d Sonic game, which probably won't do well in Japan.

The Wii audience is very hard to predict for what they will buy. They haven't really made it clear one way or another what attracts them to a game. In general though, it's a good thing to produce high quality, well marketed titles. There have been amazingly few titles that follow both of those guidelines. Nintendo themselves need to go after mid-tier games, secure titles like Persona, Valkerie Profile, Suikoden, and Onimusha (it's turned into mid-tier). They will sell in the 200-400k range, and really fill in the gaps between Nintendo's big titles, and the scattered few big 3rd party games like MH3.

 

[schuelma]

Nintendo needs to go after mid-tier games, secure titles like Persona, Valkerie Profile, Suikoden, and Onimusha (it's turned into mid-tier). They will sell in the 200-400k range, and really fill in the gaps between Nintendo's big titles, and the scattered few big 3rd party games like MH3.

Obviously we don't know where it will end up LTD, but I think SW3 is a decent acquisition for Nintendo if they can at least keep the series to some sort of timed exclusivity. Not saying its doing well per se, but it hasn't completely bombed and if Nintendo pays to keep it I think it could at least be a viable mid-tier franchise for the Wii and Zii/Xii/Wii HD.

 

[schuelma]

Oh and what I find very likely is RE5 Alternative edition coming to Wii this year. Makes a lot of sense and I think it could be profitable for Capcom given RE4 Wii sales and even the GC ports doing well for what they were.

 

[thestopsign]

Obviously we don't know where it will end up LTD, but I think SW3 is a decent acquisition for Nintendo if they can at least keep the series to some sort of timed exclusivity. Not saying its doing well per se, but it hasn't completely bombed and if Nintendo pays to keep it I think it could at least be a viable mid-tier franchise for the Wii and Zii/Xii/Wii HD.

The game has sold about what I expected from it, and with decent legs throughout the holiday season, it could reach ~250k. I don't know whether Koei is/will be happy with this though. We might see a few expansions released for it next year, but I think Nintendo would have to pay for SW4 if they wanted it.

Oh and what I find very likely is RE5 Alternative edition coming to Wii this year. Makes a lot of sense and I think it could be profitable for Capcom given RE4 Wii sales and even the GC ports doing well for what they were.

The PS3 Alternative Edition is coming out in February correct? If so, I don't see the Wii one hitting until May or June, to give it some decent spacing. Even then, I think the title has more potential in the West than in Japan. Maybe a 100k in Japan that is.

 

[schuelma]

The game has sold about what I expected from it, and with decent legs throughout the holiday season, it could reach ~250k. I don't know whether Koei is/will be happy with this though. We might see a few expansions released for it next year, but I think Nintendo would have to pay for SW4 if they wanted it.


.

Yeah- its not blockbuster just to make myself clear. I think the sales might be good enough that Koei would be amenable to keeping it on the Wii with some incentives from Nintendo.

The PS3 Alternative Edition is coming out in February correct? If so, I don't see the Wii one hitting until May or June, to give it some decent spacing. Even then, I think the title has more potential in the West than in Japan. Maybe a 100k in Japan that is.

RE4 Wii which was already available on the GC sold almost 150K. RE Zero sold almost 80K and REMake did 23K or so its first week..I think RE5 could easily do over 100K.

 

[dolemite]

Are we not even getting the top 10 this week?