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[schuelma]

I absolutely agree. The start of 2010 looks like a repeat of 2009.

I'm just not sure what more Nintendo can realistically do by themselves without moving towards the EA/Activision approach of annual rehashes for all of their major brands. They released almost 30 titles last year. Even without the New Play Control titles, they still released 2 titles a month, and they even had more Wii titles than DS titles, which shows that they shifted their focus to the Wii in 2009.

They could probably play around with their release schedule a bit to spread things out more evenly throughout the year, but as Jokeropia mentioned earlier in this thread - they try to time their releases to maximize sales. Releasing stuff in February just to have something in February may give you an extra 30k Wiis sold in February, or it may give you a bigger boost at a more opportune time of year. It seems clear that Nintendo generally likes to gear up for the holidays moreso than for the slow months of the year, because they know that they will receive bigger rewards for their efforts at those times of the year.

You are absolutely right that Nintendo is carrying the Wii by themselves. But their 1st-party output (and the sales achieved from their 1st-party titles) is light-years beyond any other publisher in Japan. It's not even a competition. So it seems to odd to be overly critical of them in an area where are so far ahead of any of their competitors.

I think that is a fair point. What hurts Nintendo is they don't have 3rd party support to fill in gaps. Like I said below, I'll be really critical of Nintendo if they ignore April/Golden Week again. I think NSMB Wii will hold hardware relatively steady for a while, but that only goes so far

 

[Chris1964]

I am also very surprised we haven't heard anything about 2007 sequels- Mario Party, Fire Emblem, and Paper Mario. I would think those would be coming this year and if we continue to hear nothing the more I wonder about some sort of hardware update for 2010 or 2011.

Don't fall into the Pacther trap. If there is a hardware update at 2011 it will be Wii 2, not Wii HD. If Nintendo does an update at Wii next year (something that can happen) it will more like bundling Wii Sports Resort or classic controller or increasing internal memory, not a major update at his specs.

 

[cvxfreak]

Q1 is the perfect time for Kirby Wii to finally come out. It would have decent legs and probably sell some systems. It's not a solution to the Q1 issue, but it would help NSMB Wii out a lot.

Spoiler

I still expect a lot of shock, awe, and trolling throughout the Q1 MC threads.

 

[gerg]

Gah. I fear my post will disappear into end-of-page limbo.

Jesus christ.

?

I fail to see why this statement is so controversial.

In terms of software, I agree that Nintendo hasn't got enough to create the momentum that is needed to encourage a healthy environment.

In terms of hardware, it all depends on how much NSMB can do for the Wii. As I said earlier in the thread, as long as new consumers continue to buy the Wii, I don't think it matters whether or not one title or five encouraged them to do so.

I am also very surprised we haven't heard anything about 2007 sequels- Mario
Party, Fire Emblem, and Paper Mario. I would think those would be coming this year and if we continue to hear nothing the more I wonder about some sort of hardware update for 2010 or 2011.

The problem with the idea of the traditional sequel is that it doesn't mesh very well with the casual consumer. I think it is safe to say that most casual gamers don't finish their games. Why, therefore, would they be interested in a title that only gives them content that is similar to the content they can already access - if they haven't exhausted their current "supply" of content, why do they need even more?

This is why I have always found donny2112's idea of an "easy" sequel to Wii Sports fundamentally flawed (unless, perhaps, it was marketed as more of a cheap upgrade, akin to Wii Fit Plus). I think it's fair to say that most casual gamers are very much satisfied with Wii Sports - they don't need nor want more of the same type of gameplay, but something different (a la Wii Sports Resort).

I agree that these types of sequels may go some way to keeping existing Wii owners as active consumers, so to speak. Nevertheless, I think people are overestimating their ability to spur hardware sales.

 

[-MB-]

Only way Nintendo could do to get 3rd party support, realistically, is to bribe/pay for it through the nose. Like Microsoft and Sony tend to do.
And we know Nintendo will never do that. Nor would I ever want them to.
This practice is something i hate about the market nowadays. Why should 3rd parties be subsidized by platform holders?
They should take risks to reap rewards, not suckle on the teat of platform holders.
Let market share decide support, NOT who is willing to pay the most for it.

 

[Durante]

Are you seriously trying to imply that all the HD "exclusives" (that is, 3rd party games not on the Wii) are somehow sponsored by Microsoft and Sony?

 

[schuelma]

The problem with the idea of the traditional sequel is that it doesn't mesh very well with the casual consumer. I think it is safe to say that most casual gamers don't finish their games. Why, therefore, would they be interested in a title that only gives them content that is similar to the content they can already access - if they haven't exhausted their current "supply" of content, why do they need even more?
.

I don't think the titles I mentioned spur any hardware, but I think they can help keep the userbase relatively active.

 

[jay]

I'm not sure that I buy that it is unreasonable to expect a single company to produce software on a steady clip. Certainly, yes, they can't pump out multi-gajillion selling titles every three months, but there's really no reason why they can't be pumping out 30+ titles per year.

Nintendo dev studios:
EAD - Six separate studios, each of which has at least one huge team.
Intelligent Systems - At least two full-size console game teams.
MonolithSoft - At least two teams, bought by Nintendo specifically to... uh... make games for Namco?
Sora - At least one full team.
Retro Studios - At least one huge team. Verrrry productive.
Brownie Brown - Part-owned by Nintendo, stuck working on shit for AQ Interactive, Level 5, Marvelous, etc.
AlphaDream - At least one handheld sized team.
NST - At least one full team, hasn't produced anything substantial in three years.
SPD - At least three teams, generally liaise with outside teams.
Noise - One full team, inexplicably making a game for Namco.
HAL - One or two full teams, not particularly productive.
GameFreak - barf
Creatures - Not sure on the team structure here.
Skip - Three teams (but they're all small). I think the challenge with Skip is how do you spin their obvious talent into retail-ready products.

This is excluding all of the frequent collaborator studios--Mitchell, RED, Vanpool, TOSE, etc etc etc. It's also excluding Hudson, who were producing Mario Party annually but Nintendo but now aren't in the ballgame anymore. This is also excluding the possibility of Nintendo financing outside studios the way that Microsoft did with, say, Mistwalker. It's also excluding opening new studios wholesale the way they did with Sora, although I don't think Nintendo trusts outside producers much and so lacking a Sakurai figure I can't imagine they'd finance a new studio that way.

They have separate teams for hardware R&D, QA, localization, etc. Some of these teams periodically release software--Slide Adventure MagKid and Personal Trainer Walking were at least partially done by Nintendo's hardware R&D guys.

Roughly 30 teams should be releasing over 30 games a year? Wouldn't that require extremely short development times?

 

[Busaiku]

I don't think the titles I mentioned spur any hardware, but I think they can help keep the userbase relatively active.

I think from the sales of titles like Taiko and Mario & Sonic, and then their sequels, depicts the thoughts of that casual crowd.
They're not quite as easy to please as it may seem.

 

[schuelma]

I think from the sales of titles like Taiko and Mario & Sonic, and then their sequels, depicts the thoughts of that casual crowd.
They're not quite as easy to please as it may seem.

I think the audience for Fire Emblem is a lot different than the audience for Taiko and Mario and Sonic.

 

[Busaiku]

Oh, I thought you were referring to the more casual consumer, rather than the hardcore gamers.

 

[Nirolak]

Only way Nintendo could do to get 3rd party support, realistically, is to bribe/pay for it through the nose. Like Microsoft and Sony tend to do.
And we know Nintendo will never do that. Nor would I ever want them to.
This practice is something i hate about the market nowadays. Why should 3rd parties be subsidized by platform holders?
They should take risks to reap rewards, not suckle on the teat of platform holders.
Let market share decide support, NOT who is willing to pay the most for it.

Alright, you say that market share should determine where games go. So, let's check Japan's statistics here:

NDS: 28,885,479
PSP: 13,496,281
WII: 9,226,215
PS3: 4,276,480
360: 1,196,305

So, most third party games should go on the DS, unless they can't run on the system, at which point they should go on the PSP.

Well, by god, it's almost as if this is what *actually happens* in the Japanese market.

But let's see, some games still show up on the PS3 and 360 over the Wii, so let's look into why that happens. For the sake of it, we'll make the assumption that all of these PS3/360 games could in fact run on the Wii, but couldn't run on the DS, so we'll leave out handhelds in this comparison as the DS would be our winning platform for every game on a world wide basis.

Since we don't have actual European sales numbers, let's just take what every company says they shipped as of the end of the second quarter (July-September) this year, so they're all on an equal footing:

Wii: 56.15 million (This + The Two Quarters Here)
Xbox 360: 34 million
PS3: 27 million

Now, on a surface level, it seems that the Wii would be the de facto platform in this situation. However, since almost every third party developer puts their games on the Xbox 360 *and* the PS3, let's add the categories together here.

Wii: 56.15 million
HD: 61 million

Now, I know, obviously there's some overlap between Xbox 360 and PS3 owners, but there's also an undetermined number of PC gamers who can run Xbox 360/PS3 level games.

So, once again going by your statement that market share should decide support, we see that the HD market still has a slight advantage over the Wii, and has subsequently gotten almost all the major titles. Since for some reason the only factor you consider is market share, as opposed to console maker incentives, console demographics, or control schemes, you should be happy with the current state of the market.

 

[Rolf NB]

Hardware market share is useful to form expectations in absence of precedent. Once you have actual data points, namely sales of game X in genre Y at time of year Z etc, the utility of hardware shares is diminished.


... yeah, "effort", I know.

 

[Brofist]

Only way Nintendo could do to get 3rd party support, realistically, is to bribe/pay for it through the nose. Like Microsoft and Sony tend to do.
And we know Nintendo will never do that. Nor would I ever want them to.
This practice is something i hate about the market nowadays. Why should 3rd parties be subsidized by platform holders?
They should take risks to reap rewards, not suckle on the teat of platform holders.
Let market share decide support, NOT who is willing to pay the most for it.

So next Tales game on Wii again?

 

[donny2112]

Wii Nintendo releases

Is it possible to add downloadable titles to that? It's a mostly invisible output method that could very well be taking time from developing retail games. Channels/Apps and games, if it's not too much to ask.

So next Tales game on Wii again?

Not without a whole lot better third-party traditional support with big franchises (e.g. a Final Fantasy-type game coming to build a strong hardcore RPG userbase) to build an audience. So maybe not until two months before DQX?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Not without a whole lot better third-party traditional support with big franchises (e.g. a Final Fantasy-type game coming to build a strong hardcore RPG userbase) to build an audience. So maybe not until two months before DQX?

Vesperia released before FFXIII

Edit:Seems you adressed that.

 

[Xeke]

I think it's unreasonable for Nintendo to release fewer than 52 games a year, one for every week. I still think that Nintendo just doesn't care for Japan as much as it does North America these days. Until there is a real problem with the Wii there whether they sell 25k a week in Japan or 45k a week in Japan is not something they are at all overly concerned about.

Japan is by far the smallest market at this point.

All that in combination with the fact that even if they saw that Q1 2009 sucked they aren't going to fast track games just to get them done for Q1 2010.

 

[Nirolak]

Out of curiosity, does anyone have a list of announced third party retail games for the Wii from Japanese companies? I was trying to think about what they had coming up, and this was all I could think of:

Capcom:
-Sengoku Basara 3
-Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles
-Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars Rerelease

Namco Bandai:
-Daikaijuu Battle: Ultra Coliseum DX - Ultra Senshi Daishuuketsu

Sega:
-Madworld
-Super Monkey Ball: Step & Roll
-Sonic & Sega All-Star Racing

Konami:
-Dance Dance Revolution: Music Fit
-GTI Club World: City Race

Square Enix:
-Dragon Quest X
-Oyako de Asobo: Miffy no Omocha Bako

Marvelous:
-No More Heroes: Desperate Struggle

Atlus:
-Trauma Team

Nippon Ichi:
-?

Tecmo-Koei:
-Sort of Metroid: Other M

From Software:
-?

Am I missing anything? I figure I probably have to be.

 

[Stumpokapow]

AlphaDream, Noise and Skip Ltd. are third party developers
But you could add Genius Sonority and NDCube.

Noise was part of Marigul Management, which was a company jointly owned by Nintendo and another Japanese company. I do not know what their ownership status is post-Marigul's collapse. Skip is indeed third party, but they have literally never worked for an outside publisher and don't intend to--although they did self-publish LOL.

Admittedly, AlphaDream is third party entirely and would better be categorized with devs like Mitchell and Vanpool that are just frequent collaborators with Nintendo.

I did forget Genius Sorority, but I actually didn't know NDCube still exists. I thought they had ceased to exist years ago, actually.

Roughly 30 teams should be releasing over 30 games a year? Wouldn't that require extremely short development times?

I believe that given Nintendo's current internal manpower and known frequent collaborators, and assuming a 50/50 split between DS and Wii games, and assuming the scope of the games they develop is similar to Nintendo's historical output, I believe Nintendo could publish 30 games a year if their teams were productive.

Note that in 2009, a year that I personally consider Nintendo to have been quite unproductive, they published around 25 retail titles.

Here's a list of what they published in North America / Europe--I include Another Code: R because all of the localization was done by NoA teams so I don't believe that choosing to publish AC:R would have prevent NoA from publishing anything else.
.
Wii: New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis, New Play Control! Pikmin, New Play Control! Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, Punch-Out!!, Wii Sports Resort, Metroid Prime: Trilogy, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Excitebots: Trick Racing, Another Code: R

DS: Personal Trainer: Math, Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon, Pokémon Platinum, Rhythm Heaven, Personal Trainer: Walking, The Legendary Starfy, Fossil Fighters, Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story, Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky, Style Savvy, The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks

This release calendar is with several drought periods and tons of major teams remaining very unproductive, as well as apparently large amounts of internal manpower working on downloadable titles.

In 2006 they published 26 DS games in North America/Europe. If they had localized Ouendan and Touch Panic and the Sandlot mech game, that's 29 there. That's on one platform.

 

[[Nintex]]

Am I missing anything? I figure I probably have to be.

Maybe Project Needlemouse that really seems like everything to me.

 

[Nirolak]

Maybe Project Needlemouse that really seems like everything to me.

Well, I'm only putting on things that have officially been announced for the platform. Also, it's excluding downloadable games, which Needlemouse might end up being.

 

[ksamedi]

Noise was part of Marigul Management, which was a company jointly owned by Nintendo and another Japanese company. I do not know what their ownership status is post-Marigul's collapse. Skip is indeed third party, but they have literally never worked for an outside publisher and don't intend to--although they did self-publish LOL.

Admittedly, AlphaDream is third party entirely and would better be categorized with devs like Mitchell and Vanpool that are just frequent collaborators with Nintendo.

I did forget Genius Sorority, but I actually didn't know NDCube still exists. I thought they had ceased to exist years ago, actually.



I believe that given Nintendo's current internal manpower and known frequent collaborators, and assuming a 50/50 split between DS and Wii games, and assuming the scope of the games they develop is similar to Nintendo's historical output, I believe Nintendo could publish 30 games a year if their teams were productive.

Note that in 2009, a year that I personally consider Nintendo to have been quite unproductive, they published around 25 retail titles.

Here's a list of what they published in North America / Europe--I include Another Code: R because all of the localization was done by NoA teams so I don't believe that choosing to publish AC:R would have prevent NoA from publishing anything else.
.
Wii: New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis, New Play Control! Pikmin, New Play Control! Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, Punch-Out!!, Wii Sports Resort, Metroid Prime: Trilogy, Wii Fit Plus, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Excitebots: Trick Racing, Another Code: R

DS: Personal Trainer: Math, Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon, Pokémon Platinum, Rhythm Heaven, Personal Trainer: Walking, The Legendary Starfy, Fossil Fighters, Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story, Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky, Style Savvy, The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks

This release calendar is with several drought periods and tons of major teams remaining very unproductive, as well as apparently large amounts of internal manpower working on downloadable titles.

In 2006 they published 26 DS games in North America/Europe. If they had localized Ouendan and Touch Panic and the Sandlot mech game, that's 29 there. That's on one platform.

I don't know if its right to take the amount of titles released as a good measure of productivity. I'd say profit per employee would be a better measure for productivity. Unless you're comparing Nintendo to themselves. But I saw you mentioning Sony back there.

 

[-MB-]

Alright, you say that market share should determine where games go. So, let's check Japan's statistics here:

NDS: 28,885,479
PSP: 13,496,281
WII: 9,226,215
PS3: 4,276,480
360: 1,196,305

So, most third party games should go on the DS, unless they can't run on the system, at which point they should go on the PSP.

Well, by god, it's almost as if this is what *actually happens* in the Japanese market.

But let's see, some games still show up on the PS3 and 360 over the Wii, so let's look into why that happens. For the sake of it, we'll make the assumption that all of these PS3/360 games could in fact run on the Wii, but couldn't run on the DS, so we'll leave out handhelds in this comparison as the DS would be our winning platform for every game on a world wide basis.

Since we don't have actual European sales numbers, let's just take what every company says they shipped as of the end of the second quarter (July-September) this year, so they're all on an equal footing:

Wii: 56.15 million (This + The Two Quarters Here)
Xbox 360: 34 million
PS3: 27 million

Now, on a surface level, it seems that the Wii would be the de facto platform in this situation. However, since almost every third party developer puts their games on the Xbox 360 *and* the PS3, let's add the categories together here.

Wii: 56.15 million
HD: 61 million

Now, I know, obviously there's some overlap between Xbox 360 and PS3 owners, but there's also an undetermined number of PC gamers who can run Xbox 360/PS3 level games.

So, once again going by your statement that market share should decide support, we see that the HD market still has a slight advantage over the Wii, and has subsequently gotten almost all the major titles. Since for some reason the only factor you consider is market share, as opposed to console maker incentives, console demographics, or control schemes, you should be happy with the current state of the market.

U can't just lump the 2 together and treat them as 1 system, that's just grasping at straws.
Besides the overlap between the 2 is most likely allot bigger then any PC gamer running console ports. Also it costs more to put a game on 2 systems, a port isn't just a matter of a few hundred ks worth of spending, especially since the 2 HD systems are very different in architecture etc.
Anyway, this is M-C thread, thus japan only, the combined HD system argument has no use here, since 360 has little presence in Japan.

 

[ethelred]

U can't just lump the 2 together and treat them as 1 system, that's just grasping at straws.

Why can't he? That's what publishers do.

 

[Nirolak]

I realized I should probably check what the PS3 has coming up as well since that's usually the system we compare the Wii's line-up to. I also went back and added From Software and Tecmo-Koei to the Wii line-up, as I realized I forgot them.

As a side note, some of these games might not release in Japan.

Capcom:
-Lost Planet 2
-Dead Rising 2
-Super Street Fighter IV
-Sengoku Basara 3
-Resident Evil: Alternative Edition

Namco Bandai:
-Ar tonelico III: Sekai Shuuen no Hikigane wa Shoujo no Uta ga Hajiku
-Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm 2
-Majin
-Dead To Rights: Retribution
-Inversion
-Enslaved
-Slaughterhouse
-Clash of the Titans

Sega:
-Yakuza 4
-End of Eternity
-Virtua Tennis: Live Match!
-Sonic & Sega All-Star Racing
-Aliens vs. Predator 3

Konami:
-Metal Gear Solid: Rising
-Castlevania: Lords of Shadow

Square Enix:
-Final Fantasy Versus XIII
-Final Fantasy XIV Online
-Star Ocean: The Last Hope International
-Nier
-Front Mission Evolved
-Kane & Lynch: Dog Days

Marvelous:
-No More Heroes: Heroes' Paradise

Atlus:
-?

Nippon Ichi:
-Last Rebellion

Tecmo-Koei:
-Fist of the North Star Musou
-Trinity: Souls of Zill O'll
-Dynasty Warriors Online: Kamishou Ranbu
-Quantum Theor

From Software:
-?

Also did I ever mention just how Western of a publisher Namco Bandai has become? Once again, this is probably, so feel free to point out anything I missed.

 

[Nirolak]

U can't just lump the 2 together and treat them as 1 system, that's just grasping at straws.
Besides the overlap between the 2 is most likely allot bigger then any PC gamer running console ports. Also it costs more to put a game on 2 systems, a port isn't just a matter of a few hundred ks worth of spending, especially since the 2 HD systems are very different in architecture etc.
Anyway, this is M-C thread, thus japan only, the combined HD system argument has no use here, since 360 has little presence in Japan.

Believe it or not, some Japanese companies actually make games for a worldwide audience, and thus the sales of these platforms worldwide is actually important to them.

But if you really want to limit this to Japan, and really want to stick with install base as the only deciding factor of where a game goes, these companies probably shouldn't be making games for any of the console platforms, and rather stick to making games for the DS and PSP unless it just isn't feasible for their game to run on either of those platforms.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I think it's unreasonable for Nintendo to release fewer than 52 games a year, one for every week.

I don't understand why you started posting in these threads, frankly.

I still think that Nintendo just doesn't care for Japan as much as it does North America these days. Until there is a real problem with the Wii there whether they sell 25k a week in Japan or 45k a week in Japan is not something they are at all overly concerned about.

Japan is by far the smallest market at this point.

They're Japanese company heavily reliant on domestic sales especially in the face of the strong yen. Almost all of Nintendo's financial troubles in the last year have been caused by Japanese sales being weaker than they had hoped and international sales being fine, but devalued because of the exchange rate.

 

[charlequin]

I'd say profit per employee would be a better measure for productivity.

This (or more relevant variants on it such as including only development personnel) would paint an even less flattering picture of Nintendo's publication productivity this year than stump's.

 

[freddy]

It will never cease to amaze me how many people forget it can take anywhere from 1 year to 4 years to release a decent game. Even given the assumption that Iwata knew he had some games in the pipeline that may help bolster their stocks, I think I would give it some more time. Then there is always the possibility that those games he thinks will help just might crash and burn when released.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

From Software:
-Demon's souls 2

Believe.

I don't understand why you started posting in these threads, frankly.

Nintendo's PR people aren't doing a good enough job of defending them.

 

[ReyBrujo]

Why can't he? That's what publishers do.

I think he meant to say that, even though publishers treat HD consoles as one, it doesn't mean it is the same as developing for the Wii. You need to have twice the optimization process (one for the main console and another for the ported one) which implies twice the debugging process, paying royalties to two hardware makers, deciding on two different distributions (I doubt Activision shipped 5 million Xbox 360 and 5 million PS3 copies of MW2, for example, so it is not as straightforward), etc.

I think companies would better prefer the Xbox 360 or the PS3 holding the Wii market share than the current situation, where you need to lump together two different platforms to reach the size of the other (which doesn't fit their schedule idea of a gaming platform).

 

[Xeke]

I don't understand why you started posting in these threads, frankly.

I'm not so sure what you're talking about, I've made at least one post in each of these threads since at least 2006, maybe you just ignore me, I dunno. It's not like it's anything new.

I like to make constructive comments but I also like to ridicule arguments I think are ridiculous. It seems as if the rest of my post was discussing the market yet you picked out the one obviously sarcastic sentence in it. I really enjoy reading the analysis but I feel that sometimes the regulars get too absorbed in the numbers and sometimes lose touch with reality outside the numbers.

 

[Nirolak]

I think he meant to say that, even though publishers treat HD consoles as one, it doesn't mean it is the same as developing for the Wii. You need to have twice the optimization process (one for the main console and another for the ported one) which implies twice the debugging process, paying royalties to two hardware makers, deciding on two different distributions (I doubt Activision shipped 5 million Xbox 360 and 5 million PS3 copies of MW2, for example, so it is not as straightforward), etc.

I think companies would better prefer the Xbox 360 or the PS3 holding the Wii market share than the current situation, where you need to lump together two different platforms to reach the size of the other (which doesn't fit their schedule idea of a gaming platform).

The royalties fees are only applied on a per unit sold basis. When you have a multiplatform game you don't have to pay Sony for every Xbox 360 version of the game you make.

Also, there has been an entire industry built up around making multiplatform technology just for the reason of minimizing the double optimization process. If this was the beginning of the generation, this point would be a good one, but by now developers have by and far gotten past this problem.

Deciding how many copies of each platform to ship isn't really that much of a problem either. You show the game to retailers, make your sales pitch, and then they tell you how much of each version they're willing to buy. This is why we see licensed games that go on every platform under the sun despite having almost zero budget, since deciding how many copies to ship isn't actually a problem at all.

Sure, this might not be quite as easy as developing on one platform, but this far into the generation this is kind of a moot point, which is why you see almost every third party game released being released on both platforms.

 

[justchris]

The problem with the idea of the traditional sequel is that it doesn't mesh very well with the casual consumer. I think it is safe to say that most casual gamers don't finish their games. Why, therefore, would they be interested in a title that only gives them content that is similar to the content they can already access - if they haven't exhausted their current "supply" of content, why do they need even more?

I think most of your arguments are overly optimistic, but I agree with this one 100%. And I believe Nintendo knows it, and I believe it's part of the reason Nintendo stopped designating sequels by number (Super Mario Bros, Super Mario Bros 2, Super Mario Bros 3) and instead designate them by subtitle (look for the final name of Super Mario Galaxy 2 to change). A numbered sequel implies a continuation of a previous product, a subtitle implies a completely new version of a previous product, and is better targeted for casual consumers.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Sales since the PS3 slim launched:

PS3 - 1,001,532
WII - 790,916

One week left. The Wii would have to sell 210,617 more than the PS3 this week.

I don't really remember who made that prediction, but congratulations.

I think that it was Opiate who said the PS3 would outsell the Wii until Christmas 2009.

Whoever it was, I thought he meant every week rather than in total.

Reading what the higher-ups at nintendo said in the last months, they admitted they screwed it up and couldn't provide content and forsee the market and whatnot. Even after they admit the inconsistencies, nothing changes and goes in the very same direction with less software releases, less first party efforts. Do they just like failing or is there something I don't understand?

Is it that the big business decisions are taken way too much in advance before they take place that you can not do anything but see how everything goes downhill for months (years) if it was a bad decision??

Yeah, I'd say that's a pretty big thing. For instance, if Nintendo decided "Oops, counting on big Q4 releases to hold strong without notable Q1 buoy software is perhaps not a great idea.", well, what are they going to do, hurry some six-month software for Q1 2010 that wasn't already in the works? Same with PS3; knowing that making your machine cheap and less of a behemoth would help is a bit of a no-brainer; but that doesn't make doing so quickly any easier.

Don't fall into the Pacther trap. If there is a hardware update at 2011 it will be Wii 2, not Wii HD.

Well, once he actually clarified what he meant by Wii HD, they're the same thing. By Wii HD he means a Wii followup with hardware capabilities at least that of X360/PS3.

 

[d+pad]

The problem with the idea of the traditional sequel is that it doesn't mesh very well with the casual consumer. I think it is safe to say that most casual gamers don't finish their games. Why, therefore, would they be interested in a title that only gives them content that is similar to the content they can already access - if they haven't exhausted their current "supply" of content, why do they need even more?

This is why I have always found donny2112's idea of an "easy" sequel to Wii Sports fundamentally flawed (unless, perhaps, it was marketed as more of a cheap upgrade, akin to Wii Fit Plus). I think it's fair to say that most casual gamers are very much satisfied with Wii Sports - they don't need nor want more of the same type of gameplay, but something different (a la Wii Sports Resort).

I agree that these types of sequels may go some way to keeping existing Wii owners as active consumers, so to speak. Nevertheless, I think people are overestimating their ability to spur hardware sales.

I agree to some extent, but I also disagree to some extent. I mean, Mario Party sequels always sell gangbusters, for instance--regardless of what system they're on. So, surely another Mario Party on Wii will sell gangbusters, too? It might not bump HW sales much, but it might keep them from dropping to 20K too.

Also, I'm of the mindset that an actual Wii Sports 2 (or Plus, more likely) would be a bigger seller than Wii Sports Resort. I do think people would like deeper experiences with the sports included in Wii Sports--thanks to the inclusion of tournament play, online play, etc. I actually think such a product might be coming down the pipeline in the next year or so, too...

 

[LINK.AGE76]

It will be 4 years for the Wii next fall. 5 years is the normal gap between new generations. We saw Microsoft release the 360 on the 4th year of the original Xbox. There is no reason why we can't expect a new console/upgrade next fall aside of the sales of the current Wii being good. The hardware of the Wii is old and it's becoming more apparent as days go by. 3rd party games are laughable on the Wii, AAA games on the Wii are a handful. 2010 is looking really weak third party wise more than ever. Nintendo isn't even saying anything of their 2010 output. Who knows, Galaxy or Other M might be delayed for Wii HD/2. I believe if Wii HD/2 does happen Mario or Other M will be on it as a launch game with other games. I also Believe if Wii HD/2 does happen, Zelda would come out 2011 (most likely the case regardless of HD or not).

Then there is Natal and Swand, if they take some of the consumers of the Wii, then it will lose usage. Nintendo can't afford that, Nintendo started out with a fresh idea and compeletly different from other companies. Now companies will have the advantage in both power and controls. I doubt the Sensor would help stir big demand again. I think it would be better if they ended up releasing it with Wii HD/2 with a better advanced Wiimote. At this point there is no reason not to believe a new system or upgrade from Nintendo in the next 18 months besides the Wii sales. Wii sales have been down drastically this year, who knows it might drop hard next year. Nintendo has many development teams without new games for the past 2 years, so why not believe they are working on next gen, unless they are in development hell. What if the reason third parties aren't making any noticeable efforts for the Wii due to working on Wii HD/2.

 

[Linkhero1]

It will be 4 years for the Wii next fall. 5 years is the normal gap between new generations. We saw Microsoft release the 360 on the 4th year of the original Xbox. There is no reason why we can't expect a new console/upgrade next fall aside of the sales of the current Wii being good. The hardware of the Wii is old and it's becoming more apparent as days go by. 3rd party games are laughable on the Wii, AAA games on the Wii are a handful. 2010 is looking really weak third party wise more than ever. Nintendo isn't even saying anything of their 2010 output. Who knows, Galaxy or Other M might be delayed for Wii HD/2. I believe if Wii HD/2 does happen Mario or Other M will be on it as a launch game with other games. I also Believe if Wii HD/2 does happen, Zelda would come out 2011 (most likely the case regardless of HD or not).

Then there is Natal and Swand, if they take some of the consumers of the Wii, then it will lose usage. Nintendo can't afford that, Nintendo started out with a fresh idea and compeletly different from other companies. Now companies will have the advantage in both power and controls. I doubt the Sensor would help stir big demand again. I think it would be better if they ended up releasing it with Wii HD/2 with a better advanced Wiimote. At this point there is no reason not to believe a new system or upgrade from Nintendo in the next 18 months besides the Wii sales. Wii sales have been down drastically this year, who knows it might drop hard next year. Nintendo has many development teams without new games for the past 2 years, so why not believe they are working on next gen, unless they are in development hell. What if the reason third parties aren't making any noticeable efforts for the Wii due to working on Wii HD/2.

I doubt Galaxy 2 would be saved for Wii HD/2 because Miyamoto said that they were in the middle of finalizing the game back in November. They would not be finalizing it for a system that hasn't been shown yet and will not be shown for quite some time.

We're in the middle of finalizing the game with the ideas that we've created. Almost entirely new courses...we've added some new abilities for Mario, and the goal is to take the system and the gameplay of the original Super Mario Galaxy and turn it into something that's a little more expanded, and offers a great deal of challenge for people that enjoyed the first game.

http://www.gametrailers.com/episode/gametrailers-tv/77?ch=1&sd=1

I also doubt Other M would be saved for Wii HD/2 because that would mean not AAA core titles for Nintendo besides Super Mario Galaxy 2 for 2010. I would not be surprised if new hardware is shown in 2010, but I do not believe either of these two titles will be saved for the new hardware.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I doubt Galaxy 2 would be saved for Wii HD/2 because Miyamoto said that they were in the middle of finalizing the game back in November. They would not be finalizing it for a system that hasn't been shown yet and will not be shown for quite some time.



http://www.gametrailers.com/episode/gametrailers-tv/77?ch=1&sd=1

I also doubt Other M would be saved for Wii HD/2 because that would mean not AAA core titles for Nintendo besides Super Mario Galaxy 2 for 2010. I would not be surprised if new hardware is shown in 2010, but I do not believe either of these two titles will be saved for the new hardware.

Besides of NSMBWii this year, what AAA game was released on the Wii this year? What matters is sales mostly for Nintendo. they can release Mario Party 9 and Kirby and call it a year for the Wii.

 

[Linkhero1]

Besides of NSMBWii this year, what AAA game was released on the Wii this year? What matters is sales mostly for Nintendo. they can release Mario Party 9 and Kirby and call it a year for the Wii.

You can't really compare 2009 to 2010's releases because it's up to Nintendo to decide how many AAA to release. Right now they're already planning on releasing MoM and Galaxy 2 for 2010. I don't see anything that says otherwise besides pure speculation. Also to say because Nintendo released one AAA game this year doesn't say much about what they plan on doing next year.

 

[Dalthien]

Besides of NSMBWii this year, what AAA game was released on the Wii this year? What matters is sales mostly for Nintendo. they can release Mario Party 9 and Kirby and call it a year for the Wii.

In the past 6 months, Nintendo has released 3 titles which will all sell a minimum of 10 million units each. Wii Sports Resort could very well top 15 million eventually, and who knows how high NSMB Wii will go, but 20 million is certainly within reach.

3rd-parties may have fucked the goat with the Wii, but Nintendo is selling software like they are selling water on Arrakis. They have created a software nirvana with the Wii.

That's not to say that they might not be considering a new console in the near-term if they see value in doing so. But believe me, they still see value in the current Wii as well. A software paradise like the Wii is not something that they can be sure of recreating - so they don't want to kill it prematurely without very good reason.

 

[legend166]

If we're looking at the productivity of Nintendo's studios, I don't think taking into account externally developed, but published by Nintendo is a good indicator. They usually have a couple of liasons, but outside of that most of it would be handled by the business dudes, right?

Taking a look at this list posted earlier:

[WII] New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis (Nintendo) - 15/01/09

Port.

[WII] Another Code: R - A Journey into Lost Memories (Nintendo) - 05/02/09

Externally developed

[WII] New Play Control! Metroid Prime (Nintendo) - 19/02/09

Port

[WII] New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) - 12/03/09

Port

[WII] Takt of Magic (Nintendo) - 21/05/09

Externally developed

[WII] New Play Control! Chibi-Robo (Nintendo) - 11/06/09

Port

[WII] New Play Control! Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (Nintendo) - 11/06/09

Port

[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 25/06/09

Internally developed

[WII] Punch-Out!! (Nintendo) - 23/07/09

Externally developed

[WII] Endless Ocean 2: Call of the Sea (Nintendo) - 17/09/09

Externally developed

[WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 01/10/09

Expansion pack

[WII] Sin and Punishment 2: Successor to the Sky (Nintendo) - 29/10/09

Externally developed

[WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 05/11/09

Externally developed

[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 03/12/09

Internally developed

[WII] PokePark Wii: Picachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 05/12/09

Internally developed

[WII] Minna ga Shuyaku no NHK Kouhaku Quiz Kassen (Nintendo) - 17/12/09

I don't know what this is, so I'll assume internal.

So, Nintendo released four interally developed Wii games in Japan in 2009, excluding Wii Fit Plus. That's woeful by pretty much any metric. It really makes me wonder what the hell was happening back in 2008, and why Nintendo weren't greenlighting more projects. I mean, they must have known they weren't going to have much to release, which is why they made all those New Play Control games.

Plus, by that stage it was obvious that 3rd parties weren't stepping up with high profile releases. I mean, for me 2009 was a good year for the Wii, but all the stuff I liked was obviously smaller budget and low profile. Plus, they've been working with that hardware for nearly 10 years now. They should have become more efficient by now. Of course, this would probably be offset by working with the motion control stuff, but it doesn't make sense that their output seems to have slowed down.

Adding to that, there's very little evidence that they've learned from their mistakes. A lot of the stuff announced so far is once again externally developed.

I don't know if I'm just underestimating the resources it takes from Nintendo for those externally developed games to be created though, and not giving them enough credit.

 

[ksamedi]

This (or more relevant variants on it such as including only development personnel) would paint an even less flattering picture of Nintendo's publication productivity this year than stump's.

In 2007, they made 1,6 million per employee (iincluding non dev staff) which made them one of the most productive companies in the world. The profits have dropped since then but I can imagine that they still are higher on the rankings than any other gaming company.

 

[Jokeropia]

The vicious circle regarding the PSP games releases and sales that you mentioned is probably the reason for lower PSP software sales in general in Europe and in USA indeed, i agree

This. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Road]

Whoever it was, I thought he meant every week rather than in total.

Well, you made me look for it. haha

Yes, that's my sense as well, although I have so very little empirical information to go on.

Contrary to my usual strict adherence to real available data, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the PS3 will outsell the Wii in Japan over the course of the remaining 4 months of the year. I could absolutely be wrong, but I often feel strangly left out because I make so few predictions in comparison to other posters.

I'll try a bold prediction, and see what happens.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=17333247&postcount=164

Although, now that you mentioned it, maybe someone else did talk about the PS3 outselling the Wii every week. (My memory is so random these days.)

 

[jj984jj]

The NHK Quiz game was made by 8ing.

 

[Chris1964]

Is it possible to add downloadable titles to that? It's a mostly invisible output method that could very well be taking time from developing retail games. Channels/Apps and games, if it's not too much to ask.

The list I posted are the games which were at Famitsu leaks. I don't think Nintendo published any other retail game for Wii all these years in Japan, besides these.
If you want to see everything Nintendo has published gamefaqs have a detailed list.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/company/1143.html

Well, once he actually clarified what he meant by Wii HD, they're the same thing. By Wii HD he means a Wii followup with hardware capabilities at least that of X360/PS3.

I don't follow Pachter to everything he says and maybe I'm wrong at this but isn't he talking about Wii 2/HD next year (2010)?
It's not going to happen. There won't be a Wii successor before 2011 the earliest. There is no reason for Nintendo to kill Wii when they make so much money from it. I expect them to be the last who will present the next system (or at the same time with Microsoft and Sony) not the first.

 

[charlequin]

It will be 4 years for the Wii next fall. 5 years is the normal gap between new generations. We saw Microsoft release the 360 on the 4th year of the original Xbox. There is no reason why we can't expect a new console/upgrade next fall aside of the sales of the current Wii being good

And the fact that none of the three console makers is ready with new hardware to launch in 2010, and the need to put aside next year to launch replacements for the current handhelds, and the fact that we aren't getting any new consoles until 2011 at least no matter how many dumb theories people invent to explain how we will.

That's not to say that they might not be considering a new console in the near-term if they see value in doing so. But believe me, they still see value in the current Wii as well. A software paradise like the Wii is not something that they can be sure of recreating - so they don't want to kill it prematurely without very good reason.

I agree with this. While I think my point of the past (Nintendo can't be relied upon, or rely upon themselves, to produce multiple guaranteed mega-hit pieces of software every year, which makes their system much more risk-intensive than other consoles that have third-party support) is proven at this point, the fact remains that Nintendo does have a remarkable string of hit software and the Wii is selling it dramatically more effectively than any other home system since the NES. As long as they can keep churning out NSMBWs and whatnot, Nintendo has a vested interest in not cutting and running from the Wii even if localized mismanagement reduces it from an unparalleled success to merely a fairly big success overall.

The profits have dropped since then

This is the only relevant factor. Again, we were talking about how Nintendo was very productive in 2006-7 and has lost a huge amount of productivity since -- which remains true either by the standard of software released (in which case they've significantly reduced their release schedules and padded them out with zero-effort ports) or by the standard of profit per employee (by which case we've seen them expand slightly since 2007 but seen periodic profit decline.)

Nintendo were using their resources very effectively and efficiently in 2006-2007 to support their two systems and produce a near-optimal level of profit from them; now it appears that a huge portion of their resources are either being wasted or misdirected. I don't think there's really any way to argue this based on the data.

 

[Rocksteady33]

I'm not so sure what you're talking about, I've made at least one post in each of these threads since at least 2006, maybe you just ignore me, I dunno. It's not like it's anything new.

I like to make constructive comments but I also like to ridicule arguments I think are ridiculous. It seems as if the rest of my post was discussing the market yet you picked out the one obviously sarcastic sentence in it. I really enjoy reading the analysis but I feel that sometimes the regulars get too absorbed in the numbers and sometimes lose touch with reality outside the numbers.

I don't know, I thought the same thing when I saw your post, I've never really seen you in these threads. But regardless I think it's safe to say people like Stump, Josh, scheuma, donny, bttb, Chris and test_account regularly know what they're talking about.

 

[Chris1964]

Am I missing anything? I figure I probably have to be.

WII

Hudson:
Funny Party Game 100 Roaring Laughter
Tower of Shadow

Konami:
Silent Hill: Shattered Memories

Level 5:
Inazuma Eleven: Break (?)

PS3

Namco Bandai:
Warriors: Legends of Troy

Square Enix:
Batman: Arkham Asylum

Tecmo-Koei:
Nobunaga's Ambition: Tendon

Arc System Works
Blazblue Continum: Shift

I think these are the most important titles and you have to add the yearly football, baseball series for both systems.