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[Jonnyram]

I'm a bit confused..are you saying Wii is doomed because sales were up in the last quarter?

No, I'm saying outside of the holiday season, Wii's sales will be ultra low. You'll probably see the PS3 outsell the Wii significantly this year.

 

[vall03]

the PS2 finally outsold the PSPgo! :lol I wonder how Sony would respond to this...

 

[schuelma]

No, I'm saying outside of the holiday season, Wii's sales will be ultra low. You'll probably see the PS3 outsell the Wii significantly this year.

I don't get your logic. The Wii was by your own admission up a ton this quarter and up a ton this holiday. Why does that mean the Wii is going to sell ultra low for 2010? Is it possible you are lowballing the Wii just like you did when predicting its holiday sales?

 

[spwolf]

Well that's interesting -- Wii's last 3 months of the year (since PS3 slim came out) are up 47.2% from last year, thanks basically to NSMB Wii, but PS3 slim still managed to outsell it over that period. 2010 is going to be very interesting. Wii sales dropped a LOT in 2009, despite the surge in the last quarter. Outside of the holiday season, Wii sales could be very miserable. It depends purely on NSMB's legs, I think.

i am all for glorifying ps3 sales (ha ha, i thought i would get updated tag with that ban msg mods), but every console depends on software to sell... well this is what we have said before, but NSMB just showed that there is still HUGE demand for Wii... they just need to be consistent with software.

Jan and Feb will tell us more. But i dont think there is chance anyone taking Wii sales crown during holidays no matter the circumstances, even the price parity.

 

[poppabk]

Well that's interesting -- Wii's last 3 months of the year (since PS3 slim came out) are up 47.2% from last year, thanks basically to NSMB Wii, but PS3 slim still managed to outsell it over that period. 2010 is going to be very interesting. Wii sales dropped a LOT in 2009, despite the surge in the last quarter. Outside of the holiday season, Wii sales could be very miserable. It depends purely on NSMB's legs, I think.

PS3 also had a big title during this period which you may have overlooked, as it had little fanfare.

 

[schuelma]

i am all for glorifying ps3 sales (ha ha, i thought i would get updated tag with that ban msg mods), but every console depends on software to sell... well this is what we have said before, but NSMB just showed that there is still HUGE demand for Wii... they just need to be consistent with software.

Jan and Feb will tell us more. But i dont think there is chance anyone taking Wii sales crown during holidays no matter the circumstances, even the price parity.

spwolf....is that....you?

 

[Jonnyram]

I don't get your logic. The Wii was by your own admission up a ton this quarter and up a ton this holiday. Why does that mean the Wii is going to sell ultra low for 2010? Is it possible you are lowballing the Wii just like you did when predicting its holiday sales?

Hardly.

Wii was up a ton last quarter purely because of NSMB Wii. And is there a game of NSMB's caliber on the horizon for the significant future? There could always be something coming next holiday season, but the staple diet of Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus didn't lift the hardware out of it's mid-year lull.

On the other hand, PS3 has been pushing forward with confidence since the Slim launched, culminating in the positive FFXIII sales at the end of the year.

PS3 also had a big title during this period which you may have overlooked, as it had little fanfare.

It was selling awesomely way before that came out. Consumers have been lapping up the Slim.

 

[spwolf]

spwolf....is that....you?

we will see... next week?

can you do me a big favour - NSMB and FFXIII, % sold vs install base?

 

[:enemyglider:]

I don't get your logic. The Wii was by your own admission up a ton this quarter and up a ton this holiday. Why does that mean the Wii is going to sell ultra low for 2010? Is it possible you are lowballing the Wii just like you did when predicting its holiday sales?

I think he's suggesting that Nintendo gets a significantly higher bump than the competition during holiday quarters.

That, coupled with the release of NSMB has resulted in very high sales this December (and better than last year). However, it will crash back to reality after the holiday season. Where exactly it lands will depend on how much longer the NSBM craze continues. My guess is not too much longer (in terms of inducing significant hardware boosts, it'll still have good legs)

Nintendo has a really poor Q1 software lineup, and Nintendo will have to pull something out of their hat this year to match the success of NSBM Wii. Zelda and Mario Galaxy are great games, but don't have the accessible widespread appeal of a title like 2D multiplayer mario.

 

[Majmun]

I expect a massive hardware bump for the Ps3 when GT5 arrives.

I don't think Wii has anything of that caliber for this year.

 

[schuelma]

Hardly.

Wii was up a ton last quarter purely because of NSMB Wii. And is there a game of NSMB's caliber on the horizon for the significant future? There could always be something coming next holiday season, but the staple diet of Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus didn't lift the hardware out of it's mid-year lull.

On the other hand, PS3 has been pushing forward with confidence since the Slim launched, culminating in the positive FFXIII sales at the end of the year.

Ok, I'm getting really confused here. The Wii just had a holiday season basically on par with 2007, outsold the PS3 in December by about 200K, they have a game that is probably going to sell for years, and that means the Wii is about to tank in sales.

The PS3, with a 10000 yen price drop, a complete relaunch/redesign and the biggest single release it will ever have in Japan, outsold the Wii from the time of its relaunch (which of course includes its initial week which was then a record) by what, like ten thousand units...and is sure to significantly outsell the Wii next year?*

Pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical. It seems to me that you are taking something that is a positive (Wii's hardware sales in December) and using it as a negative for 2010 (it sold so well in December, its bound to fail next year!!).

And again, IIRC you predicted PS3 to outsell the Wii this holiday easily, so I'm skeptical of your new found confidence that the Wii was always going to sell really well in December.




* this is not meant as a slam on the PS3-What it has done since September is amazing and I was proven wrong week after week

 

[Hero of Legend]

we will see... next week?

can you do me a big favour - NSMB and FFXIII, % sold vs install base?

Allow me!

NSMBW LTD: 2,708,000
Wii LTD: 9,605,199
Ratio: 28.19%

FFXIII LTD: 1,802,000
PS3 LTD: 4,501,368
Ratio: 40.03%

So yeah, so far the ratio is quite higher for FFXIII.

In the future, calculate this:

Given amount, divided by the total amount, then multiply by 100!

 

[schuelma]

I think he's suggesting that Nintendo gets a significantly higher bump than the competition during holiday quarters.

That, coupled with the release of NSMB has resulted in very high sales this December (and better than last year). However, it will crash back to reality after the holiday season. Where exactly it lands will depend on how much longer the NSBM craze continues. My guess is not too much longer (in terms of inducing significant hardware boosts, it'll still have good legs)

Nintendo has a really poor Q1 software lineup, and Nintendo will have to pull something out of their hat this year to match the success of NSBM Wii. Zelda and Mario Galaxy are great games, but don't have the accessible widespread appeal of a title like 2D multiplayer mario.

Oh I know what he's suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that a month ago he didn't think Nintendo was going to get that type of bump, which to me calls into question his new theory.

 

[thestopsign]

Ok, I'm getting really confused here. The Wii just had a holiday season basically on par with 2007, outsold the PS3 in December by about 200K, they have a game that is probably going to sell for years, and that means the Wii is about to tank in sales.

The PS3, with a 10000 yen price drop, a complete relaunch/redesign and the biggest single release it will ever have in Japan, outsold the Wii from the time of its relaunch (which of course includes its initial week which was then a record) by what, like ten thousand units...and is sure to significantly outsell the Wii next year?*

Pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical. It seems to me that you are taking something that is a positive (Wii's hardware sales in December) and using it as a negative for 2010 (it sold so well in December, its bound to fail next year!!).

And again, IIRC you predicted PS3 to outsell the Wii this holiday easily, so I'm skeptical of your new found confidence that the Wii was always going to sell really well in December.




* this is not meant as a slam on the PS3-What it has done since September is amazing and I was proven wrong week after week

I think he is just saying that there isn't much to carry the momentum that the Wii picked up this quarter if NSMBW doesn't continue to push hardware into the Spring.

In contrast to that, the PS3 has a lot of momentum going for it, and it has a great software schedule to transfer that momentum into 2010.

 

[spwolf]

Allow me!

NSMBW LTD: 2,708,000
Wii LTD: 9,605,199
Ratio: 28.19%

FFXIII LTD: 1,802,000
PS3 LTD: 4,501,368
Ratio: 40.03%

So yeah, so far the ratio is quite higher for FFXIII.

In the future, calculate this:

Given amount, divided by the total amount, then multiply by 100!

28% and rising is huge when you have that big install base... thanks a lot dude.

 

[schuelma]

I think he is just saying that there isn't much to carry the momentum that the Wii picked up this quarter if NSMBW doesn't continue to push hardware into the Spring.

Well yeah, we've all said that. That's about as obvious a statement as anyone can make.

 

[schuelma]

In contrast to that, the PS3 has a lot of momentum going for it, and it has a great software schedule to transfer that momentum into 2010.

Ok...but my point is, I think its a pretty weak argument to claim that the Wii is all of a sudden going to *lose* all of its momentum just because the calendar turns to January.

 

[:enemyglider:]

Oh I know what he's suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that a month ago he didn't think Nintendo was going to get that type of bump, which to me calls into question his new theory.

Well, not everyone gets their predictions right.

I recall you believing the PS3 would get outsold by the Wii during FFXIII launch week (or would do similar numbers, ~180k) and we all know how that turned out

Ok...but my point is, I think its a pretty weak argument to claim that the Wii is all of a sudden going to *lose* all of its momentum just because the calendar turns to January.

It could do just that if NSBM fails to really keep selling incredible numbers in January and beyond.

 

[thestopsign]

Well yeah, we've all said that. That's about as obvious a statement as anyone can make.

It just sounds like you are completely convinced that NSMBW will carry the Wii ahead of the PS3 for the next few months, even with the PS3 having a great software line-up and a cheaper/better system on the market. The PS3 Slim launch is comparable to the PSP 2000 launch. It won't just have a short term effect, it will probably carry a baseline increase for most of 2010 on its own, not including the software. The baseline increase may be to a lesser magnitude than the PSP 2000, but it still should be enough to beat a Wii without much software.

 

[schuelma]

I recall you believing the PS3 would get outsold by the Wii during FFXIII launch week (or would do similar numbers, ~180k) and we all know how that turned out

:lol :lol :lol Out of all my horrible predictions, you're going to turn that one against me? If I had known about how many bundles Sony was pushing out that prediction would have changed.

P.S I'd wager a bet I got the 5 week hardware totals a lot closer than almost anyone that predicted.

 

[Jonnyram]

Oh I know what he's suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that a month ago he didn't think Nintendo was going to get that type of bump, which to me calls into question his new theory.

NSMB sales took me by surprise. I'm sure they surprised other people too. I recognise it's success, and Wii's performance for the short term will be based purely on NSMB legs. I can't see those legs lasting beyond Q1 though.

 

[thestopsign]

Ok...but my point is, I think its a pretty weak argument to claim that the Wii is all of a sudden going to *lose* all of its momentum just because the calendar turns to January.

I think NSMBW might carry the Wii pretty well into February, but if Nintendo doesn't get some other software out there, it's going to be the same situation as last year. As in sub-20k sales every week.

 

[spwolf]

Oh I know what he's suggesting. What I'm suggesting is that a month ago he didn't think Nintendo was going to get that type of bump, which to me calls into question his new theory.

did anyone believe ps3 resurrection? did anyone believe NSMB + Wii performance to be at these levels? I dont think so. All of us, including analysts are just reactionists. From 2D Mario wont sell to ha ha only 1.3m shipped. Our opinions are moving targets, subjects to change without prior notice ;-). Not to mention that our memories go back up to 3 weeks when it comes to sales threads...

in any case, nothing new is being said... wii needs software, and when wii gets software, wii seels like crazy beans.

 

[schuelma]

It just sounds like you are completely convinced that NSMBW will carry the Wii ahead of the PS3 for the next few months, even with the PS3 having a great software line-up and a cheaper/better system on the market. The PS3 Slim launch is comparable to the PSP 2000 launch. It won't just have a short term effect, it will probably carry a baseline increase for most of 2010 on its own, not including the software. The baseline increase may be to a lesser magnitude than the PSP 2000, but it still should be enough to beat a Wii without much software.

No, I'm not convinced of that at all. I've said repeatedly I'm not sure what will happen and that nothing will surprise me. I've also said next weeks hardware numbers will start to tell the story. I do think there is a better chance of NSMB Wii carrying hardware than the PS3's slate of games. My issue is saying something definite about 2010 purely based on the logic that Nintendo always dominates December so its a given that momentum is about to die down.

 

[schuelma]

NSMB sales took me by surprise. I'm sure they surprised other people too. I recognise it's success, and Wii's performance for the short term will be based purely on NSMB legs. I can't see those legs lasting beyond Q1 though.

I think that is probably correct. However, given how little we know about Nintendo past February, I think its premature to make some of the statements you're making, that's all.

 

[onipex]

I think NSMBW might carry the Wii pretty well into February, but if Nintendo doesn't get some other software out there, it's going to be the same situation as last year. As in sub-20k sales every week.

I think it can carry the Wii into April.

 

[thestopsign]

No, I'm not convinced of that at all. I've said repeatedly I'm not sure what will happen and that nothing will surprise me. I've also said next weeks hardware numbers will start to tell the story. I do think there is a better chance of NSMB Wii carrying hardware than the PS3's slate of games. My issue is saying something definite about 2010 purely based on the logic that Nintendo always dominates December so its a given that momentum is about to die down.

Due to the shortages of NSMBW, I think we are going to see inflated sales at first for both the Wii HW and NSMBW. So the first month or so may not be all that telling. I think once we get into February the Wii is going to start slowing down, and if we don't have a better picture of what Nintendo and/or 3rd parties are going to get out there we could see a drought just as bad as last years.

 

[:enemyglider:]

No, I'm not convinced of that at all. I've said repeatedly I'm not sure what will happen and that nothing will surprise me. I've also said next weeks hardware numbers will start to tell the story. I do think there is a better chance of NSMB Wii carrying hardware than the PS3's slate of games. My issue is saying something definite about 2010 purely based on the logic that Nintendo always dominates December so its a given that momentum is about to die down.

I seriously doubt that. Unless NSMB continues sellng 500k every week in Q1, it won't really do much to push hardware sales of the Wii. 100k and below sales of NSMB won't have much hardware pushing power week to week.

A number of medium PS3 hits should carry it above and beyond the Wii for Q1. We all know about the disproportionate bump Nintendo hardware gets in December, and the fall is harder in January than other consoles based upon previous years statistics IIRC.

Last year, didn't games like Yakuza keep the PS3 at around 30+k for a a while?

PS3 has a better lineup this Q1 than last, and it has the PS3 slim + price drop momentum on its side.

GT5 will also be a much bigger release than any game they had previously for Q1, and should keep sales somewhat elevated for a month or so.

 

[test_account]

Good PSP, PS3 and Wii hardware sales in my opinion. And even that the PSP Go sales are fairly low, i must say that i am a bit surprised over how stable the sales numbers are. I guess that there is a less chance for the sales numbers for fluxuate much when they are low though, but still, if the PSP Go sales numbers contunies to be like they are now, i think that they will sell out the first shipment at least, for what it is worth

Sep. to Dec. of 2009 according to:

- 52 week 2009 Famitsu,
PS3 - 1,110,275
WII - 1,016,138

- 52 week 2009 Media-Create,
PS3 - 1,112,051
WII - 1,006,045

- 53 week 2009 Media-Create,
PS3 - 1,226,419
WII - 1,169,900

Congratulations to Opiate for getting his prediction right!

 

[schuelma]

I seriously doubt that. Unless NSMB continues sellng 500k every week in Q1, it won't really do much to push hardware sales of the Wii. 100k and below sales of NSMB won't have much hardware pushing power week to week.
.

So the only way that the Wii can have a decent baseline is if a game does 500K every week? Really?

 

[test_account]

By the way, any special reason for why the PSP sales went up this week compared to last week?

 

[:enemyglider:]

So the only way that the Wii can have a decent baseline is if a game does 500K every week? Really?

I never said the Wii wouldn't have a decent baseline, potentially, I'm just saying that I believe that baseline will be lower than the PS3 without any new, invigorating software releases.

 

[Nirolak]

By the way, any special reason for why the PSP sales went up this week compared to last week?

Well, a lot of teenagers got New Years money this week, and I imagine that they are one of the PSP's biggest target audiences.

Also, Kingdom Hearts is the next Media Create isn't it?

 

[test_account]

Well, a lot of teenagers got New Years money this week, and I imagine that they are one of the PSP's biggest target audiences.

Ye, that might be the reason for the increased PSP hardware sales indeed

Also, Kingdom Hearts is the next Media Create isn't it?

Yep, i think it is being released tomorrow (Saturday, 9th of January 2010). Maybe this game also affected the PSP hardware sales a bit indeed.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Yep, i think it is being released tomorrow (Saturday, 9th of January 2009). Maybe this game also affected the PSP hardware sales a bit indeed.

Wow, it was released a whole year ago and no one else knew?! :O

 

[test_account]

Wow, it was released a whole year ago and no one else knew?! :O

Lol, sorry about that, i guess that i havnt ajusted myself 100% yet that it is 2010 now I also managed to write Friday 9th of January at first instead of Saturday hehe. Thanks for mentioning it, i have fixed it to 2010 now

 

[Hero of Legend]

Lol, sorry about that, i guess that i havnt ajusted myself 100% yet that it is 2010 now I also managed to write Friday 9th of January at first instead of Saturday hehe. Thanks for mentioning it, i have fixed it to 2010 now

No prob.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Wow, it was released a whole year ago and no one else knew?! :O

Yup, that's when I got it. Apparently Terra is Sora, Ven is an amnesiac Roxas who went back in time and was traumatized by Riku's hair, and Kairi's grandma is Mrs. Disney. And Vanitas is really Nomura's older brother.

 

[cvxfreak]

If the PS3 does outsell the Wii for much of 2010, it'll be a repeat scenario of 2008 with the DS and PSP. The PSP had outsold the DS for quite awhile and it wasn't until December when the DS came out ahead. I see the allure of the PS3 Slim wearing off in March or so, until the next major redesign or price drop. But unless DQX jumps ship (lol), the PS3 will never receive anything that will be bigger for it than FFXIII.

 

[danielijohnson]

I wasn't saying that FFXIII's haven't been great. They really have. There is just no way it's going to reach 2 mil.

 

[Bizzyb]

PSP | 132,911 |
| PSPgo | 3,903


Holy Hell, is this for real??

 

[distantmantra]

Congratulations to Opiate for getting his prediction right!

So wait, the PS3 outsold the Wii in 2009? Is that right?

 

[Riou]

Well that's interesting -- Wii's last 3 months of the year (since PS3 slim came out) are up 47.2% from last year, thanks basically to NSMB Wii, but PS3 slim still managed to outsell it over that period. 2010 is going to be very interesting. Wii sales dropped a LOT in 2009, despite the surge in the last quarter. Outside of the holiday season, Wii sales could be very miserable. It depends purely on NSMB's legs, I think.

Didn't the PS3 also receive a substantial bump from F13? NSMBW will certainly have a much more prolonged effect on hardware than FF13. On the other hand the PS3 has the much strong line up in Q1. Things should be interesting.

 

[hirokazu]

So wait, the PS3 outsold the Wii in 2009? Is that right?

No, those numbers were only September to December.

It was a close race after the Slim came out, and PS3 seemed to have a good shot when it kept inching closer to Wii's YTD. Then NSMB came out on Wii and it was all over for PS3, even if it put up a good fight with FFXIII.

 

[danielijohnson]

Good PSP, PS3 and Wii hardware sales in my opinion. And even that the PSP Go sales are fairly low, i must say that i am a bit surprised over how stable the sales numbers are. I guess that there is a less chance for the sales numbers for fluxuate much when they are low though, but still, if the PSP Go sales numbers contunies to be like they are now, i think that they will sell out the first shipment at least, for what it is worth



Congratulations to Opiate for getting his prediction right!

I don't think it's hard to produce "stable" sales in the 4k range. :lol

 

[:enemyglider:]

I don't think it's hard to produce "stable" sales in the 4k range. :lol

You don't think Microsoft tried hard?

 

[test_account]

No prob.

So wait, the PS3 outsold the Wii in 2009? Is that right?

No, his prediction was that the PS3 would outsell the Wii from when the PS3 Slim got launched (sometime in September) and until the end of 2009

I think that it was unclear if he ment outselling on a weekly basis or in total (or did Opiate confirm what he ment?). The PS3 didnt manage to outsell the Wii every single week from the PS3 Slim launch to the end of 2009, but at least the PS3 managed to outsell the Wii in total in this time period.

EDIT: I se now that Hirokazu already answered before me

 

[distantmantra]

No, those numbers were only September to December.

It was a close race after the Slim came out, and PS3 seemed to have a good shot when it kept inching closer to Wii's YTD. Then NSMB came out on Wii and it was all over for PS3, even if it put up a good fight with FFXIII.

So where are the total 2009 numbers? I'm not a fan of console warrioring, but I'm curious.

edit: Found it.
WII 1.962.367
PS3 1.764.531

 

[hirokazu]

You don't think Microsoft tried hard?

They did when they barraged the market with JRPGs, and the numbers showed. Then they stopped, and it's become "stable" again...

 

[test_account]

I don't think it's hard to produce "stable" sales in the 4k range. :lol

Hehe, sure, but i ment stable around 3k to 4k I guess that it could have dropped more each week, maybe down to 2k, or maybe even down to 1k, but that doesnt seem to have happend (not yet at least). Or to write it a bit different, i am a bit surprised that the PSP Go hasnt dropped faster in sales

So where are the total 2009 numbers? I'm not big on console warrioring, but I'm curious.

Here are the total 2009 numbers:

Wii: 1.962.367
PS3: 1.764.531

Those are Media Create hardware numbers, i am not sure how the Famitsu hardware numbers looks like.