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Media Create Sales (Feb 7-13)
- Thread starter Spiritreaver
- Start date
Spiritreaver
Member
Jesus it took you guys quite a while to find this thread, I was actually surprised to see Drinky taking it into his own hands. You guys are slipping.
That or this thread is just fulfilling my GAF curse, where my threads just never seen to generate posts.
That or this thread is just fulfilling my GAF curse, where my threads just never seen to generate posts.
Izzy said:
The DS is going to have PDA software soon, so it will be comparable in function. But the power is a definite concern. However the GB have always been underpowered. And we have yet to see the real fight begin, the first million is always devoid of real casual gamers. So its still too early to tell.
But the DS is a bulky piece of shit, I wouldnt go 10 feet of it, But damn meteos...
radioheadrule83
Banned
You do know the DS is only as thick as the GBA SP and as wide as a PSP right?
The numbers aren't that different from last week. DS is coming off its launch high and PSP is still enjoying its own thanks to limited shipping capability of Sony. No killer apps on either side yet.
To idiots the fight is already over. For everyone else the fight has just begun.
I can't wait for price drops and special unit iterations. They really spice these things up.
The numbers aren't that different from last week. DS is coming off its launch high and PSP is still enjoying its own thanks to limited shipping capability of Sony. No killer apps on either side yet.
To idiots the fight is already over. For everyone else the fight has just begun.
I can't wait for price drops and special unit iterations. They really spice these things up.
Spiritreaver
Member
:lol I actually haven't gotten myself either, I don't like that I participate in them now, but I can't help but not check how things are performing. I still can't get into the NPD discussions though, weird.kaching said:You caught some of us off guard, since we didn't take you for the type who got into sales whoring
You're too kind good sir, too kind. You get a special mark in my book!...Really, I'm going to hold you to your word. So like, about my LOGO thread...NLB2 said:
Okay I'm just kidding. :lol
radioheadrule83
Banned
Monk said:
Fair comment then. I do wish they were a little smaller lengthways myself. Only a little though.
You could start wearing jackets with nice big inside breast pockets like I have
Sad that I base clothing decisions around these things really!
sonycowboy
Member
Here's the real deal:
We can't do any valid comparisons between the DS & the PSP from a sales perspective. The DS had a huge launch, whereas the PSP has a extremely supply constrained launch that is still true over 2 months past the initial launch day.
It may be that the PSP slows down, or speeds up (from a weekly) perspective once supply issues are laid out. We just don't know.
However, we do know exactly how the DS is doing, so how about we do a comparison of the DS vs the GBA. Does anyone have weekly sales for the GBA from the past, because it would seem to me that sub 30k sales does not indicate great health for any system.
Can anyone validate this assumption, or disprove it.
I don't particularly buy the "wait for the big game" argument as there are WAYYY too many weeks where you don't see big games. The system needs to sell itself, like the PS2 & GBA did before it. Certainly a system needs a library and these systems are still developing that, but I think an important indicator of health has to be how the system sells on a weekly basis, with and without big games.
Anybody have some good weekly sales data?
We can't do any valid comparisons between the DS & the PSP from a sales perspective. The DS had a huge launch, whereas the PSP has a extremely supply constrained launch that is still true over 2 months past the initial launch day.
It may be that the PSP slows down, or speeds up (from a weekly) perspective once supply issues are laid out. We just don't know.
However, we do know exactly how the DS is doing, so how about we do a comparison of the DS vs the GBA. Does anyone have weekly sales for the GBA from the past, because it would seem to me that sub 30k sales does not indicate great health for any system.
Can anyone validate this assumption, or disprove it.
I don't particularly buy the "wait for the big game" argument as there are WAYYY too many weeks where you don't see big games. The system needs to sell itself, like the PS2 & GBA did before it. Certainly a system needs a library and these systems are still developing that, but I think an important indicator of health has to be how the system sells on a weekly basis, with and without big games.
Anybody have some good weekly sales data?
Nope, PS2 was already past DC by this point. By comparison, PSP is about half what DS sold, and DS only had a week long headstart, compared to Dreamcast's 21 month lead over PS2.Izzy said:
To break 1,000,000 units sold in Japan it took...
PS1~ 6 months
DC~ 8 months
PS2~ 2 weeks
GBA~ 2 weeks
DS~ 3 weeks
PSP~ ??? (we're past 2 months already)
... really this situtaion has precious little in common with "the good old days". If DC were ever selling 10-20k less than PS2 on a weekly basis, it'd still be around.
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Jarrod,
See my post above yours. At this point, we can't really make any valid statements about the PSP's sales other than, they've sold every unit they've shipped (essentially)
My question is, how is the DS selling vs other systems on a weekly basis after they're launch period. Did the other systems see a significant slowing of hardware sales soon after the launch? And did they dip to sub 30k sales?
I would imagine they probably did as the post-launch period is usually pretty light on big new releases and probably gets a bump from the "second wave" of big releases. Do you have any numbers for comparison?
Sure, but my point was in dispelling the largely inaccurate DC/PS2 to DS/PSP comparison. The situations and trends here are literallly nothing alike.sonycowboy said:
I don't have numbers, but GBA had a much steadier stream of content than either DS or PSP (or DS & PSP combined even), plus it was the only 'major' handheld on market (WSC & NGPC had already given up almost). I sorta doubt it had as much of a dip, though 2 months later GBA also had the start of summer to give it a nice boost. Same for PS2 really.sonycowboy said:
KeithFranklin
Banned
Last years #s for comparison
February 9 - 15, 2004
Game Boy Advance SP - 99,151
PlayStation 2 - 52,026
GameCube - 8,592
Game Boy Advance - 6,421
Xbox - 793
Must have been a big release for the GBA that week (Pokemon game maybe) because week before and week after this sold about 30K less.
Still you can see the hurtin that is happening to Nintendo in Japan. Simply put Sony is cutting into the market share of Nintendo handhelds and this will hurt revenue. Even if Nintendo wins it looses because of decreased marketshare (IE 70% to 30% is winning, but not as good as 99% like it used to be).
GCN continues to fall further behind 2004. Expect it to be at about 250K when Holidays hit and in 2004 it sold 180K during the holidays to hit 725K. So it will propably sell 300K less in 2005.
Year to date numbers
PS2 393,137
PSP 362,355
DS 305,679
GBASP 137,877
GC 52,172
GBA 4,022
XBOX 3,270
Nintendo business model
February 9 - 15, 2004
Game Boy Advance SP - 99,151
PlayStation 2 - 52,026
GameCube - 8,592
Game Boy Advance - 6,421
Xbox - 793
Must have been a big release for the GBA that week (Pokemon game maybe) because week before and week after this sold about 30K less.
Still you can see the hurtin that is happening to Nintendo in Japan. Simply put Sony is cutting into the market share of Nintendo handhelds and this will hurt revenue. Even if Nintendo wins it looses because of decreased marketshare (IE 70% to 30% is winning, but not as good as 99% like it used to be).
GCN continues to fall further behind 2004. Expect it to be at about 250K when Holidays hit and in 2004 it sold 180K during the holidays to hit 725K. So it will propably sell 300K less in 2005.
Year to date numbers
PS2 393,137
PSP 362,355
DS 305,679
GBASP 137,877
GC 52,172
GBA 4,022
XBOX 3,270
Nintendo business model
sonycowboy
Member
KeithFranklin said:
Thanks for the numbers. If you had even a year earlier that might be better, because last year there was the Pokemon hames, which had been out for weeks, but also, the Famicon Mini (NES Classics) games released that week, so it was an extraordinary week for GBA
Year to date numbers
PS2 393,137
PSP 362,355
DS 305,679
GBASP 137,877
--------------------------------- <---- Line between Dead and Alive, IMO, and GBA will fall under it
GC 52,172
GBA 4,022
XBOX 3,270
KeithFranklin said:Last years #s for comparison
February 9 - 15, 2004
Game Boy Advance SP - 99,151
PlayStation 2 - 52,026
GameCube - 8,592
Game Boy Advance - 6,421
Xbox - 793
Must have been a big release for the GBA that week (Pokemon game maybe) because week before and week after this sold about 30K less.
Still you can see the hurtin that is happening to Nintendo in Japan. Simply put Sony is cutting into the market share of Nintendo handhelds and this will hurt revenue. Even if Nintendo wins it looses because of decreased marketshare (IE 70% to 30% is winning, but not as good as 99% like it used to be).
GCN continues to fall further behind 2004. Expect it to be at about 250K when Holidays hit and in 2004 it sold 180K during the holidays to hit 725K. So it will propably sell 300K less in 2005.
Year to date numbers
PS2 393,137
PSP 362,355
DS 305,679
GBASP 137,877
GC 52,172
GBA 4,022
XBOX 3,270
Nintendo business model
Great post, Keith - and with a lot of empirical data. I've used it in my OA thread.
The DS has a headstart, but it will not take 40 weeks for the PSP to overcome it, and the sales will not be maintained. This very much IS another PS2/DC situation. The dynamics of the market tend to bias in favor of the market leader over time. In other words, like we've seen with the GC, DC and Xbox, expect DS sales to fall off over time until it's irrelevant. Pokemon will lead to a sales surge, but how long-lived that will be is anybody's guess. Nintendo fans might be in denial, but those numbers don't lie. The GBA never fell off like this. Matter of fact, the GBA was always at the sharp end of the sales charts with the PS2. These sales are BAD for the DS, period...end of story. Under 30k per week? Yeah, I bet it's just launch fever that's keeping the PSP up. Lie to me, Jerry, lie to me.
What's gotta burn is that the PSP hasn't hit its stride yet. Whether or not this is still launch frenzy doesn't matter much. What matters is that the PSP is outselling the whole Nintendo stable by itself, and without Sony shipping large volumes yet either. What'll happen when they actually do get 100k per week coming down the pike? The gap to the DS will only grow, not shrink. And what on the horizon (as in before Spring) does the DS have to rejuvenate sales? The hype of Pokemon alone won't drive sales, not this far in the future. Overpriced POS or not, the PSP is gonna blow the doors off the DS in Japan at least. I suppose it's fitting that Nintendo fans now resort to the same desperate defense that DC fans once used. That userbase advantage is SHRINKING...remember that. PEACE.
What's gotta burn is that the PSP hasn't hit its stride yet. Whether or not this is still launch frenzy doesn't matter much. What matters is that the PSP is outselling the whole Nintendo stable by itself, and without Sony shipping large volumes yet either. What'll happen when they actually do get 100k per week coming down the pike? The gap to the DS will only grow, not shrink. And what on the horizon (as in before Spring) does the DS have to rejuvenate sales? The hype of Pokemon alone won't drive sales, not this far in the future. Overpriced POS or not, the PSP is gonna blow the doors off the DS in Japan at least. I suppose it's fitting that Nintendo fans now resort to the same desperate defense that DC fans once used. That userbase advantage is SHRINKING...remember that. PEACE.
sonycowboy
Member
Pimpwerx said:
That's not true. There have been many, many weeks where the GBA was under or around 30k.
Find me some data regarding weekly sales of the GBA in it's early daysand/or historical sales in February and you might have a point. I also, feel like < 30k is low, but it's only been two weeks at that level, and we don't know how it compares back historically.
For example:
Media Create said:
Good point. My memory isn't good enough to go on. But was this in the launch year for the GBA? I mean, shouldn't we be comparing them around the same time periods? 2004 was late in the GBA's life, and the PSP had already been announced. Lots of different variable. At the time of the GBA's launch however, I *remember* the device selling straight bananas, and all the talk was about how it was gonna outpace the PS2. I don't keep sales archives, and back then, Dengoku and Famitsu were the main sources of sales data. I don't remember Media Create being that important back then. PEACE.sonycowboy said:
sonycowboy
Member
Pimpwerx said:
:lol
That's exactly what I've been saying for the last 3 or 4 posts. Also, IIRC, the PS2 was KILLING the GBA on a weekly basis up until the end of 2003 or thereabouts. It wasn't even close, but the GBA has just been real steady and plugging away.
You very clearly have little understanding just how DC/PS2 actually played out. DC was plauged by exteremly limted launch supplies, 3rd party apathy and eventually fizzled thanks to PS2 hype. Within a month of release PS2 had already passed it, despite a 16 month lead on Dreamcast's part. Had DC gotten half the support (both in the market and from the industry) that DS is enjoying, it'd still be around today.Pimpwerx said:
Well, it's not like DS only has Pokemon to push it. There's also Rockman.EXE, Mario Kart, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, Meteos, Super Robot Taisen, Naruto, Dragon Ball Z, Kirby, Zelda, Gyakuten Saiban, Yu-Gi-OH!, PowerPro, Gundam, Xenosaga, Goemon, Sonic, Jump Superstars, One Piece, etc. In terms of library, DS is more comparable to PS2 or GBA than those machines, it a rather full lineup with well over 150 announced titles so far (about 20-30 more than PSP actually).... I think you should probably do a little more research on the matter.Pimpwerx said:
No, now it's you who's lying. Both GBA and PS2 have dipped below 30k before.Pimpwerx said:
PSP in 2 months still hasn't sold what DS sold in 2 weeks. If you seriously think PSP isn't supply constrained thanks to it's anemic launch, I'd say you need to step back and take a longer look at things. Do you seriously think DS would be putting up the same numbers now if it had allocated similar supplies as PSP this far?Pimpwerx said:
I don't think Nintendo fans are the only ones in denial here.
mashoutposse
Ante Up
For reference, it took GBA SP 4 months to graze the twenties (29k to be exact), and that wasn't even a "new" system. The GBA SP's first under-28k week occurred 7.5 months after launch.
sonycowboy
Member
mashoutposse said:
I completely believe you, but I'd love to see a source
I just think it'll be useful to see how the Japanese sales go from week to week historically.
thks.
Comparing SP sales is a bit worthless though, as that machine didn't experince any post launch software drought (quite the opposite actually, it released in the prime of GBA's lifecycle). It's like comparing PSP to PStwo.mashoutposse said:
What we need are old model GBA sales, but even then that machine had little direct competition left, a summer pick-up post launch and a much heavier release schedule than DS and PSP combined. :/
mashoutposse
Ante Up
sonycowboy said:I completely believe you, but I'd love to see a source
I just think it'll be useful to see how the Japanese sales go from week to week historically.
thks.
http://www.d6.dion.ne.jp/~yosou-oh/harddata.htm
Jarrod may have a point, but IMO launch excitement factor = software factor. Two months is still way too soon for sub-30k sales weeks.
Comparing PSP to PSTwo is fine as they are both selling quite well, supporting my above statement (in Japan, it looks like PSP is outselling it even).
Well, I'd agree and I definitely think DS has stalled a bit early... but I think that's mainly due to software. These issues play into each other, if GBA had a similar lineup upfront I suspect it would've stalled pretty quick too. If PSP had sated demand in a month, it'd probably be doing the same now.... it is the worst sales period of the year after all.mashoutposse said:
But you should be comparing timelines, not week to week. In that regard PSP would be trailing PStwo significantly.mashoutposse said:
PStwo had an amazing first few months, just like GBA SP. Heavy software schedules (DQ8, MGS3, ToR, GT4, etc) ensure that sort of thing, especially when a platform's in it's prime. Plus there's likely a lot a repeat buys with these hardware redesigns. My point was, this sort of comparison is fundamentally worthless.
KeithFranklin
Banned
With the DS because of the GBA game capability should not have such a software issue. Certainly many people that would purchase a GBASP can choose to pickup a DS instead with a GBA game and anticpate more advanced games later.
I'd say that's partially a result of Nintendo's flawed '3rd pillar' agenda. If they want DS to really do well, they should just go ahead a push it as GBA's successor. As is, it seems like a stopgap purely to slow PSP. :/KeithFranklin said:
It'd be like if Sony had just released an upspecced PS2 this year to stem Xenon's performance... I expect most would simply wait it out for PS3. Reminds me a bit of the 32X/Saturn dynamic too, which definitely isn't a good thing. Nintendo needs to make a decision soon, they can't have it both ways.
mashoutposse
Ante Up
jarrod said:
Nah, the point of that comparison is that week-to-week consumer interest in any of the systems (PSP, PSTwo, GBA SP) never dropped as low as it has as quickly as it has for the DS currently.
The problem there though is that there are many more factors at play. PSP still hasn't sated launch demand thanks to anemic supplies. GBA SP and PStwo were hardware redesigns introduced into mature markets. What we'd need for a valid comparison would be sales of PS2, DC, GC, GBA, WS, etc.mashoutposse said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
And none of them started as slowly as the PSP.mashoutposse said:
I don't think historical comparisons can really tell us much; having 3 viable portables from 2 manufacturers is basically unprecedented. Of course the individual sales won't be matching up to what GB/GBC/GBA's near-monopoly did.sonycowboy
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:And none of them started as slowly as the PSP.
That's simply a matter of manufacturing, not consumer enthusiasm. I think it would be unfair to characterize the PSP's launch as a lack of acceptance, although certainly you can knock them for their lack of availability.
Izzy said:
Uh, no. The problem with the DS is its size. Same goes for the psp. If either one of these were smalled and fitted more comfortably in my pockets, then it would be a different story.
But the PSP unlike the DS was designed to be used in the home rather than outside, so the size is excusable , but the DS is SUPPOSED to be carried around and because of it size, it fails at a basic level.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I know, I know. Just my snarky way of abbreviating the "Low launch supply leaves current demand extremely high" point.sonycowboy said:
And now something from a recent sales thread, because bumping it with this reply seems unnecessary:
I'm really not positive whether you mean to say Sony's supply will increase or decrease there. On the one hand, obviously they're trying to increase production severalfold... on the other hand, they'll also soon be supplying to a few even larger markets which could counteract the effect as far as Japan is concerned.DCharlie said:
