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Next Week Prediction


[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 35k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 40k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 85k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 60k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 250k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 65k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 40k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii - 430k

 

[Chris1964]

MW2 is, by rough estimates, nearly 1.5 million units ahead of NSMBWii in the UK with the lead growing week by week.

It may have a chance of outselling the PS3 version WW, but combined SKU is a pipe dream, even with the Japanese sales.

At least there is a chance.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Next Week Prediction

[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 250k

That'd be incredible IMO!

 

[LiquidMetal14]

You guys

Spoiler

and gal

might as well wait for the new MC thread before inflating the thread with predictions.

 

[Chris1964]

You guys

Spoiler

and gal

might as well wait for the new MC thread before inflating the thread with predictions.

So that we predict for Final Fantasy XIII?

 

[Spiegel]

250k for ToG could be a realistic expectation because the port of Tales of Vesperia on PS3 sold 227k in the first week without Namco having built a Tales fanbase on the console (lol).

I'm expecting a lower number though.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

So that we predict for Final Fantasy XIII?

Sounds like a plan!

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You guys

Spoiler

and gal

might as well wait for the new MC thread before inflating the thread with predictions.

We only take them up to the Famitsu leak for the previous week, that is, less than 24 hours from now.

Sounds like a plan!

FFXIII will be on the following predictions, that will be opened in the next thread, on Friday-Saturday and up to Wednesday 16th.

 

[Arpharmd B]

Off topic, but...

Can we refrain from using the term "retarded" to refer to someone or something as "stupid"? It is as offensive to people who are mentally handicapped.

Thank you.

No.

Being politically correct is retardedly annoying.

 

[Jokeropia]

I remember a Capcom guy loling at their Megaman 9 "first week sales" Wiiware numbers.

Source?

The only references to VC/Wiiware sales (that doesn't just compare to other VC/Wiiware sales) I'm aware of is that Nintendo made Sin & Punishment 2 based on good North American VC sales of the original, that the Wiiware version of World of Goo had a large majority of the game's overall sales and Telltale Studios (the makers of the Strong Bad games) making this comment:

"Anything that comes out on WiiWare is going to sell a huge amount because it's a WiiWare title, but comparably both of them are selling really well. We're really happy with the numbers for both. The Wii just has a much bigger audience."

 

[Bebpo]

No.

Being politically correct is retardedly annoying.

There's a difference between doing something because it's PC and doing something out of respect for your fellow forum posters who find it offensive.

 

[GameplayWhore]

MW2 is, by rough estimates, nearly 1.5 million units ahead of NSMBWii in the UK with the lead growing week by week.

It may have a chance of outselling the PS3 version WW, but combined SKU is a pipe dream, even with the Japanese sales.

I feel the strongest urge to bump that Reggie thread (and maybe I'll do that; for some reason, this "contest" interests me) instead of OTing in here. I'll try to be brief...ish.

So (ignoring that Reggie's comment was about outselling individual SKUs, not all versions added up, and of course that he wasn't talking worldwide) MW2 is (as per your numbers) 1.5 million ahead in the UK and probably at this current moment about 1.0 million behind in Japan. Given that NSMBW seems to be charting higher in more non-UK PAL countries than MW2 is, and given that both have been reporting tremendous business in North America ... well, I can see how MW2 has an advantage at the moment (especially given that it came out a couple weeks earlier on average and sales are still strong), but why do you believe that it's a "pipe dream" for NSMBW to eventually sell higher overall?

Oh, and clarification: Are you talking total lifetime sales or total 2009 sales?

Spoiler

hi mods, don't hesitate to yell me over to the Reggie thread if you think that's a better place to discuss this

 

[ethelred]

The only references to VC/Wiiware sales (that doesn't just compare to other VC/Wiiware sales) I'm aware of is that Nintendo made Sin & Punishment 2 based on good North American VC sales of the original, that the Wiiware version of World of Goo had a large majority of the game's overall sales and Telltale Studios (the makers of the Strong Bad games) making this comment:

Hudson:

... sales for Bomberman Blast were only "a fraction" of what the Xbox Live Arcade version. To be fair, Bomberman Live had a full year of sales before Bomberman Blast came out. That should explain the difference, but Mike Pepe, Director of Marketing, brought up another point, "Ultra [on the PS3] has been out only for a month and it's been catching up on Blast fast."

Pepe mentioned some of the trials of digital distribution and expressed their data may suggest Wii owners are not purchasing WiiWare games. [...] "It's a challenge on WiiWare. It's a shame that really good titles are being overlooked."

Satoru Iwata agrees:

Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata told investors that WiiWare demos are on the way at a Q&A session[...] According to Iwata, the market for WiiWare and DSiWare games is currently small, with buyers only visiting the Wii Shopping Channel when they know what they want to buy.

As far as World of Goo goes, I'm not sure of the current accuracy of the claim that the WiiWare version made up "the majority" of the sales, given that they were able to generate 57,000 in sales after they put the game on sale on their website. And they stated that after this, Steam sales increased by 40% while WiiWare sales only increased by 9%.

Today the developer outlined the success of the promotion, and announced that they are extending it to October 25. Since the sale started, about 57,000 copies were sold, at an average price of $2.03. [...] As a surprise, the sales of the game on other channels rose too. Steam sales rose 40% from the prior week, and WiiWare rose 9%.

 

[ksamedi]

Even Iwata admitted that the Wiiware market is small. Some titles may have done well but with the way things are set up at the moment, its really hard to have a healthy DL market on the Wii.

 

[Somnid]

SMB3 is the best selling VC game and should be well above 500k in the US alone. We can establish baseline figures using the data provided in the Nintendo Channel. Basically, Nintendo's games sell a ton, everyone else not so much outside of large recognizable franchises.

I haven't checked WiiWare numbers in a long time though.

 

[shinshero]

MW2 is more than 1.5M ahead in the UK. Actually probably closer to 1.9M (and thats only if the NSMB Wii has doubled its sale after its initial 1st week).

COD: MW2 is at 2,358,000 in the UK right now and still All formats No.1.

I'm expecting close to 8 to 10M worldwide for the first month of MW2.

 

[DNF]

As far as World of Goo goes, I'm not sure of the current accuracy of the claim that the WiiWare version made up "the majority" of the sales, given that they were able to generate 57,000 in sales after they put the game on sale on their website. And they stated that after this, Steam sales increased by 40% while WiiWare sales only increased by 9%.

You may want to add that these 57,000 units came from a "pay what you want sale" and "The average was brought down by the vast majority of people paying a penny, which actually cost PayPal money for processing fees."

According to a blog post (gonint****)
from mid of september the revenue was as this:
40% WiiWare North America
20-25% PC/Mac/Linux sales from 2DBoy.com
15% of PC sales from Steam
12% sales from WiiWare in Europe
and other smaller amounts

So even right now, most revenue for this game came probably from WiiWare.
I don't claim that there are many high-selling games like world of goo on wiiware, but there is no reason to miscredit the few blockbuster it has.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I think WiiWare probably is the dominant platform for World of Goo.

Here's an updated quote from Hudson about WiiWare:

Mike Pepe: From an American perspective... well, America is where most of our digital download development happens. We do have some WiiWare development back in Japan, but most of the XBLA, PSN, and also some WiiWare titles are being developed here in North America. Some games are probably better off as digital download than in retail. For instance, Bomberman -- Bomberman, in the U.S. at retail, probably maxed out at something like 100,000 units [sold] for one title. Then take Bomberman Live for the 360, which is well over half a million units right now. It kind of found its niche. The same goes for [Bomberman] Ultra. Ultra is doing very well on PSN, even though the audience on PS3 is much smaller than on 360. But then you take it to a platform; what platforms are good for downloads? Not Wii right now; Wii doesn't have the hard drive that 360 and PS3 do. So I think you're going to see some platforms have better results as digital downloads, such as 360 and PS3. We're going to see more games actually leave retail and go to digital download.

Whereas with Wii, you have a different platform, different specs, and then you also have a different customer. Wii has a very casual customer base, where they're not getting a lot [of users downloading]. I mean, we go to tons of shows where we're showing off 360, PS3, and WiiWare games, and people are like "wow, I'm going to go buy this in the store!" And we're like, "well, you can't go buy it at the store, but you can go home and download it." "Really? How do I do that?" "It's called WiiWare..." And you have to educate them that you can actually go buy this from your home and download it there. That's an example of someone who would just like to go and buy a physical product, and that's actually what Nintendo is catering to right now. Again, I think [with] some platforms, you're going to see more digital download than retail, and then others you'll see far more into retail than digital. I know that's kind of a political, standing-on-the-fence way [of putting it], but there are some types of games that are going to be much more suited for digital download.

 

[d+pad]

Even Iwata admitted that the Wiiware market is small. Some titles may have done well but with the way things are set up at the moment, its really hard to have a healthy DL market on the Wii.

What's funny to me about Iwata's comments on this topic - and the recent introduction of WiiWare demos - is that they seem to ignore one of the biggest problems with WiiWare (and VC and the Shop Channel in general): Most casual-ish gamers don't seem to know it exists - and even if they do, they're probably not sure how to go about getting onto the shop channel and buying WiiWare games.

I'm amazed Nintendo does so little marketing re: the Shop Channel and VC and WiiWare releases. It definitely seems like it would be a draw to lapsed gamers - "Hey, you can download and play all of those games you played as a kid!" - but the only way Nintendo seems to be interested in marketing the system is through those little reminders stuffed into each game manual.

Edit: Oh, wait - I forgot that Nintendo - at least NOA - sends out e-mail PR re: VC and WiiWare. :lol The problem with that, of course, is that people have to sign up for such things - and likely people who sign up for such things already know about the Shop Channel and know how to access it and buy/download demos and games. Sigh.

 

[onken]

Almost forgot my predictions!

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 40k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 50k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 60k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 40k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 180k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 80k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 30k

 

[Jokeropia]

Hudson:

Apparently Hudson are comparatively unsuccessful, but they explain the difference to the Live Arcade version right there. (1 year of extra sales.) Still, there are clearly some games that are more successful than others.

Satoru Iwata agrees:

Knowing Iwata's ambitions, this doesn't reveal too much, either. I mean, Iwata is not satisfied with Wii overall simply performing better than all competitors.

As far as World of Goo goes, I'm not sure of the current accuracy of the claim that the WiiWare version made up "the majority" of the sales, given that they were able to generate 57,000 in sales after they put the game on sale on their website. And they stated that after this, Steam sales increased by 40% while WiiWare sales only increased by 9%.

Note that those 57,000 sales was for the "pay what you want" promotion, and the average price paid was $2.03. (The Wiiware title is $15.) And of course, percentage increases week over week for individual versions say virtually nothing.

I couldn't find any recent sales number break downs, but Wii's revenue share was 60% in June this year.

It’s been about 8 months since we released World of Goo, and our heads are still spinning. Now that we are really old men, we have taken time to reflect that quitting our jobs to make an indie game was not entirely a horrible life decision our parents and friends thought it would be. The little goo balls did change our lives though, and now nothing we ever do will ever be received as well, so nobody should ever buy games from 2D BOY anymore. WiiWare is responsible for about 60% of revenue. Windows/Mac/Linux versions account for 40%, with retail accounting for less than 2% of revenue so far.”

Anyway, it would seem that VC/Wiiware is really successful for some titles and less successful for others. Since the original comment referred to the Mario VC games which are among the most successful, I think it's fair to say that they've most likely done well even on an absolute scale.

Edit: It would seem I was beaten on some of these points. Oh well.

 

[kswiston]

I'm amazed Nintendo does so little marketing re: the Shop Channel and VC and WiiWare releases. It definitely seems like it would be a draw to lapsed gamers - "Hey, you can download and play all of those games you played as a kid!" - but the only way Nintendo seems to be interested in marketing the system is through those little reminders stuffed into each game manual.

Especially considering how much content they have on the Shop Channel. How many games are their on the NA Virtual Console and WiiWare? Over 400 combining the two? I would imagine that total is even higher on the Japanese counterpart.

Each new Wii should include either a 500 point voucher, or a coupon for a free VC game, as well as instructions on how to use the Wii Shop Channel.

 

[Hero of Legend]

A simple TV ad should do the trick. How about a mere mention of it on the new Wii commercial?

 

[zigg]

Each new Wii should include either a 500 point voucher, or a coupon for a free VC game, as well as instructions on how to use the Wii Shop Channel.

Given that the DSi came with just that out of the gate, the fact they haven't rushed to bring a similar deal to the Wii suggests to me it wasn't all that successful.

What they are doing is preloading DSis with an assortment of DSiWare. Interesting move.

 

[ksamedi]

What's funny to me about Iwata's comments on this topic - and the recent introduction of WiiWare demos - is that they seem to ignore one of the biggest problems with WiiWare (and VC and the Shop Channel in general): Most casual-ish gamers don't seem to know it exists - and even if they do, they're probably not sure how to go about getting onto the shop channel and buying WiiWare games.

I'm amazed Nintendo does so little marketing re: the Shop Channel and VC and WiiWare releases. It definitely seems like it would be a draw to lapsed gamers - "Hey, you can download and play all of those games you played as a kid!" - but the only way Nintendo seems to be interested in marketing the system is through those little reminders stuffed into each game manual.

What I believe Nintendo needs to do to make things sell better on Wiiware:

- Make the channel faster and the interface better. It takes a lot of time for it to just log in and the site is pretty slow even after logging in.
- Add some vids to the site so that users can instantly see videos of the games they browse Wiiware or VC.
- Make it so that most games have a demo.
- The SD card solution is good but they can expand it by letting the user directly download to SD card which could eliminate the size limit. As it is now, it first downloads to Wii memory and copies to SD card from there.
- Promote Wiiware more through commercials.
- Send some reminders trough Wiiconnect 24 about demos or even better, let Wiiconnect 24 automatically download demos for you for promotion purposes (why does Wiiconnect 24 even exist?)
- Make a blockbuster game for Wiiware only (something like Wiisports)

I'm sure others have better ideas. But I think this would be good a start for Wiiware.

 

[d+pad]

A simple TV ad should do the trick. How about a mere mention of it on the new Wii commercial?

I agree. Actually, along a similar line, I'm surprised how rarely Nintendo has invested in TV/print ads that tout the overall Wii brand. Usually, their ads tout the game of the moment - Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii. Rarely do they tout the system's catalog as a whole. Why not put some ads out there that remind people of Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music, Mario Kart, SMG, etc?

NOA's most recent TV ad for the holidays does this to an extent, but it's strange to me that they haven't done more of it.

Also, I agree with the idea of including a coupon/voucher for free Nintendo points (500, etc.) in every Wii system box. The problem with such things, though, seems to be that people *still* don't understand how to get their Wii/DS on line, which may be why the DS version didn't succeed (if, in fact, it didn't succeed).

Maybe every Wii/DS should come pre-loaded with a video (set up as a channel?) that shows people how to get their systems on line - and then shows them what they can do (buy VC and WiiWare games, etc.) once they do that?

 

[gerg]

What they are doing is preloading DSis with an assortment of DSiWare. Interesting move.

I think this is a good way to promote DSiWare (and, potentially, WiiWare) while actively making money. It spreads consumer awareness while selling games.

Maybe every Wii/DS should come pre-loaded with a video (set up as a channel?) that shows people how to get their systems on line - and then shows them what they can do (buy VC and WiiWare games, etc.) once they do that?

+ 1

I agree. Actually, along a similar line, I'm surprised how rarely Nintendo has invested in TV/print ads that tout the overall Wii brand. Usually, their ads tout the game of the moment - Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus, NSMB Wii. Rarely do they tout the system's catalog as a whole. Why not put some ads out there that remind people of Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Music, Mario Kart, SMG, etc?

Presumably because the games that will keep on selling do so regardless, and (the majority of the) games that don't won't benefit from such advertising.

 

[d+pad]

What they are doing is preloading DSis with an assortment of DSiWare. Interesting move.

Is NOJ doing the same thing? Aren't the DSi LLs pre-loaded with some games?

Anyway, sorry for taking this thread off-topic a bit. Back to predictions!

 

[Lyude77]

Especially considering how much content they have on the Shop Channel. How many games are their on the NA Virtual Console and WiiWare? Over 400 combining the two? I would imagine that total is even higher on the Japanese counterpart.

Each new Wii should include either a 500 point voucher, or a coupon for a free VC game, as well as instructions on how to use the Wii Shop Channel.

They already have the instructions to get on the internet with every Wii, my Dad got one late and the instructions were visual in the form of a channel. I think unwillingness to read/watch instructions is a problem. Probably the only solution is a commercial, and they don't want to spend that kind of money because they probably don't realize that people never read/watch instructions.

 

[ethelred]

I think WiiWare probably is the dominant platform for World of Goo.

It may well be. Like I said, I'm not sure.

Apparently Hudson are comparatively unsuccessful, but they explain the difference to the Live Arcade version right there. (1 year of extra sales.)

They've indicated that they're much less successful on WiiWare across the board compared to PSN and XBLA. The 1 year's worth of extra sales should not account for the WiiWare version being just "a fraction" (which is pretty loaded terminology); nor would it account for the comment he made immediately after, which is that the PSN version which just came out is already outperforming.

Knowing Iwata's ambitions, this doesn't reveal too much, either. I mean, Iwata is not satisfied with Wii overall simply performing better than all competitors.

As he should not be satisfied with the Wii's performance, given how it's doing. But there's no question that when he says the WiiWare/DSiWare market is small because people don't know it exists, he's not speaking in terms of a grander master plan -- he's speaking literally. It's small. Most Wiis are not online, most people are not going to the store to buy games there, and that's why the market there is much smaller than on competing platforms. And that's why Iwata is saying what he's saying and trying to take steps (like the ambassador program which is specifically geared around getting clueless consumers connected, or like introducing demos) to correct this.

Note that those 57,000 sales was for the "pay what you want" promotion, and the average price paid was $2.03. (The Wiiware title is $15.)

Oh, sure, the sales increased because of a really clever promotion, no question. But it's interesting you note that the increased performance came as a result of a sale whereas the Wii price is fixed at 15$, because we've seen a lot of evidence that has suggested that these kinds of sales have been hugely beneficial to titles on both XBLA and Steam. And that's common sense -- it's a marketing and sales rule of thumb in any industry. You put stuff on sale, it'll drive more interest, and that's definitely something Wii lacks as a means to stimulate the growth of a title.

And of course, percentage increases week over week for individual versions say virtually nothing.

Right. Which is why I simply noted that I'm not really sure that you can continue to make the claim that "a large majority" of the sales were on Wii. It's a pretty outdated comment and a lot has happened since then. While week over week percentage increases for one week don't necessarily change the proportion, given a span over enough weeks it certainly would alter that which would diminish that "large majority" claim. We don't know, so it's not an accurate claim for you to make.

 

[d+pad]

Presumably because the games that will keep on selling do so regardless, and (the majority of the) games that don't won't benefit from such advertising.

Actually, my initial thought was that some of these ads could include games that haven't done well with the casual set, but should have - i.e. Wii Music, Endless Ocean, and even third-party games like Boom Blox, etc.

Obviously, people knew about Wii Music (it was advertised 24/7 in the States, at least) and just chose not to buy it for a variety of reasons, but I'm not convinced that people knew about Endless Ocean, Boom Blox 1/2, etc. Ads that tout some of these lesser-known games could do some good, IMO.

This actually reminds of something else I've been thinking about lately - the discussion about how various third-parties (esp. in Japan) haven't done a good of creating a fan/user-base for particular series on the Wii. In a way, I think Nintendo can/should be blamed for this, too - they really haven't done a good job of creating a so-called hardcore fan/user-base on their own system. Most of their own "hardcore"-focused games are sent to die with little promotion, so why should anyone expect those same folks to come around when a third-party "hardcore" game is released on the system - often with even less fanfare than Nintendo produces for its own "hardcore" titles?

 

[Stumpokapow]

They already have the instructions to get on the internet with every Wii, my Dad got one late and the instructions were visual in the form of a channel. I think unwillingness to read/watch instructions is a problem. Probably the only solution is a commercial, and they don't want to spend that kind of money because they probably don't realize that people never read/watch instructions.

Well the real solution is making it very easy to get online. The Wii doesn't facilitate this for a few reasons.

One is not having a built-in Ethernet device. This hurts consumers, particularly on the tech-stupid end of things, who don't have wireless devices, as well as consumers who have them and don't fully understand them. True, you can buy the USB dongle. True, wireless is great and Microsoft are scammers. True, setting wireless up is easy. That doesn't change the end situation with the Wii.

Next, while there are major online games on the Wii (both Brawl and Mario Kart have online play well integrated in the sense that an owner of either game would be likely to realize you can get your Wii on the internet), there are many more on other systems. Of the 33 US million sellers I can think of on 360, Assassin's Creed and Dead Rising are the only ones that doesn't have significant DLC, leaderboards, or online multiplayer. The vast majority on the list have all three. That ratio goes down the board too.

Third, while an internet-connected Wii has that small animated icon on the shop channel showing a little info about what's on the go, the advertising solutions on the other consoles are better. On PSN you get the stock ticker plus the new full-screen PSN preview thing. On 360 you get the Spotlight channel and ads for games, but more importantly a disconnected 360 has lots and lots of places where it says "HEY DUDE GET YOUR 360 ONLINE HEY YOU'RE DISCONNECTED WHY AREN'T YOU ONLINE". Some might say they don't want to be reminded of what's coming out, and I dig that, but that certainly does contribute to the lack of visibility of online Wii stuff.

Finally, for whatever reasons, publishers whose games are on VC or WiiWare do not tend to blanket online outlets with coverage prior to release. The occasional PSN/XBLA game is released silently, but I'd say a factual majority of VC/WiiWare games are.

I think demos, sales, storage, etc all contribute to why people who are online and shop-aware might not buy as much as their counterparts on other consoles, but I think these are pretty good reasons to examine why people don't put their Wiis online to begin with.

 

[gerg]

Actually, my initial thought was that some of these ads could include games that haven't done well with the casual set, but should have - i.e. Wii Music, Endless Ocean, and even third-party games like Boom Blox, etc.

Obviously, people knew about Wii Music (it was advertised 24/7 in the States, at least) and just chose not to buy it for a variety of reasons, but I'm not convinced that people knew about Endless Ocean, Boom Blox 1/2, etc. Ads that tout some of these lesser-known games could do some good, IMO.

Of course advertising can "do some good". The question is if it can do enough good to make itself worthwhile.

 

[Lyude77]

Well the real solution is making it very easy to get online. The Wii doesn't facilitate this for a few reasons.

One is not having a built-in Ethernet device. This hurts consumers, particularly on the tech-stupid end of things, who don't have wireless devices, as well as consumers who have them and don't fully understand them. True, you can buy the USB dongle. True, wireless is great and Microsoft are scammers. True, setting wireless up is easy. That doesn't change the end situation with the Wii.

Next, while there are major online games on the Wii (both Brawl and Mario Kart have online play well integrated in the sense that an owner of either game would be likely to realize you can get your Wii on the internet), there are many more on other systems. Of the 33 US million sellers I can think of on 360, Assassin's Creed and Dead Rising are the only ones that doesn't have significant DLC, leaderboards, or online multiplayer. The vast majority on the list have all three. That ratio goes down the board too.

Third, while an internet-connected Wii has that small animated icon on the shop channel showing a little info about what's on the go, the advertising solutions on the other consoles are better. On PSN you get the stock ticker plus the new full-screen PSN preview thing. On 360 you get the Spotlight channel and ads for games, but more importantly a disconnected 360 has lots and lots of places where it says "HEY DUDE GET YOUR 360 ONLINE HEY YOU'RE DISCONNECTED WHY AREN'T YOU ONLINE". Some might say they don't want to be reminded of what's coming out, and I dig that, but that certainly does contribute to the lack of visibility of online Wii stuff.

Finally, for whatever reasons, publishers whose games are on VC or WiiWare do not tend to blanket online outlets with coverage prior to release. The occasional PSN/XBLA game is released silently, but I'd say a factual majority of VC/WiiWare games are.

I think demos, sales, storage, etc all contribute to why people who are online and shop-aware might not buy as much as their counterparts on other consoles, but I think these are pretty good reasons to examine why people don't put their Wiis online to begin with.

Yeah, I was being too restrictive in saying that commercials were the only solution. The main point of the post was to let people know that Nintendo already has that infomation channel they were asking for on the Wii.

Your third point is especially something they need to change, they should send weekly updates on the games released directly to people through the Wii (like their system update notices, but basically send the weekly press release). You could have people choose to opt out of them if they wished. Yes, being reminded every week could be annoying, but people can always stop/ignore them. I think it's more annoying to have to check and see what has been released lately by looking at all the press releases here or at a Nintendo site, honestly.

The amount of online games and people not going online are in a kind of a cycle of causation at this point. Because not too many people get online, developers don't value online as much as they do with a 360 game, causing people not to value (or know about) online. It's kind of similar to the advertising point, at least in my mind. Because developers don't think their games will sell really well, they refuse to advertise them. It's similar to the way they don't advertise retail games, except they aren't directly blaming the Wii or consumers on this one. XD

 

[charlequin]

Because not too many people get online, developers don't value online as much as they do with a 360 game, causing people not to value (or know about) online.

I don't think there's a vicious cycle exactly. I think both consumers and developers are disinterested because the Wii's online infrastructure sucks balls.

 

[Jokeropia]

They've indicated that they're much less successful on WiiWare across the board compared to PSN and XBLA. The 1 year's worth of extra sales should not account for the WiiWare version being just "a fraction" (which is pretty loaded terminology); nor would it account for the comment he made immediately after, which is that the PSN version which just came out is already outperforming.

It says right in the article that the 1 year delay "should explain the difference", but I guess it's not completely clear who's saying that. The PSN version had been "catching up fast" during the month it had been out, meaning that it hadn't outperformed the WiiWare game yet. Now maybe by "outperforming" you only meant "selling faster", but then the "already" qualifier loses meaning.

Regardless, it is clear Hudson is not one of the more successful Wiiware publishers.

As he should not be satisfied with the Wii's performance, given how it's doing. But there's no question that when he says the WiiWare/DSiWare market is small because people don't know it exists, he's not speaking in terms of a grander master plan -- he's speaking literally. It's small. Most Wiis are not online, most people are not going to the store to buy games there, and that's why the market there is much smaller than on competing platforms.

First of all, I just noticed he mentions only WiiWare in those comments. I'm talking about (in line with how the discussion originated) WiiWare/VC as a whole. Secondly, do you have the total sizes of the Wiiware/VC, PSN and XBL markets? (In dollars, total numbers, percentages or whatever.) If you do, just reveal them and we can end the discussion right there. If not, I don't see how you can make any of those claims.

Oh, sure, the sales increased because of a really clever promotion, no question. But it's interesting you note that the increased performance came as a result of a sale whereas the Wii price is fixed at 15$, because we've seen a lot of evidence that has suggested that these kinds of sales have been hugely beneficial to titles on both XBLA and Steam. And that's common sense -- it's a marketing and sales rule of thumb in any industry. You put stuff on sale, it'll drive more interest, and that's definitely something Wii lacks as a means to stimulate the growth of a title.

But it's irrelevant in this case, because the Wii version is clearly #1 in revenue. (See below.)

Right. Which is why I simply noted that I'm not really sure that you can continue to make the claim that "a large majority" of the sales were on Wii. It's a pretty outdated comment and a lot has happened since then.

->

According to a blog post (gonint****)
from mid of september the revenue was as this:
40% WiiWare North America
20-25% PC/Mac/Linux sales from 2DBoy.com
15% of PC sales from Steam
12% sales from WiiWare in Europe
and other smaller amounts

So that's a minimum of 52% revenue as of September 2009. Recent enough for you? If we try to take the 57,000 from the promotion into account, they generated a total revenue $115,710. For Wiiware to generate an equal amount, it only needs to sell 7,714 copies. Don't you think that the total Wiiware sales from launch to September 09 (almost a year) outnumber that to such a degree that this promotion did not affect the revenue shares by any significant amounts?

 

[Somnid]

What I believe Nintendo needs to do to make things sell better on Wiiware:

- Add some vids to the site so that users can instantly see videos of the games they browse Wiiware or VC.

Nintendo Channel does this.

- The SD card solution is good but they can expand it by letting the user directly download to SD card which could eliminate the size limit. As it is now, it first downloads to Wii memory and copies to SD card from there.

This was part of the SD card solution. Users are prompted to where they want the download to go.

- Send some reminders trough Wiiconnect 24 about demos or even better, let Wiiconnect 24 automatically download demos for you for promotion purposes (why does Wiiconnect 24 even exist?)

They did send a Wiimail about demos.

Maybe every Wii/DS should come pre-loaded with a video (set up as a channel?) that shows people how to get their systems on line - and then shows them what they can do (buy VC and WiiWare games, etc.) once they do that?

DSi comes preloaded with a movie that does exactly this if you bought it since September

I think this shows that these things do not help since the almighty NeoGaf was oblivious to them. It's something different than that and I think it feeds back into the idea that most people don't understand digital distribution in general. If it were so simple then DD would be highly sucessful and systems like PSP GO wouldn't be met with such resistance. Really it's a cultural shift that needs to take place, beating people over the head with it doesn't help, their attitudes have to change, not just awareness. I think Iwata's proposed Kindle-like system is definately a way to go, something more thoughtful and that consumers really see a value in.

It was the same with XBL. People didn't go online because someone told them about it or they got some status message telling them how awesome XBL is, they went online so they could play with their friends and not be left behind. This is very much how these things have always worked.

 

[gerg]

Secondly, do you have the total sizes of the Wiiware/VC, PSN and XBL markets? (In dollars, total numbers, percentages or whatever.) If you do, just reveal them and we can end the discussion right there. If not, I don't see how you can make any of those claims.

The last thing I remember was that there had been something like 10 million downloads of Virtual Console games by February 2008.

I don't know if that's encouraging or not (especially since the comparison of the VC to other download services might be more "apples to oranges" than not), but I think it's reasonable to suggest that, at that point, not many people were using the Wii's download service.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't think there's a vicious cycle exactly. I think both consumers and developers are disinterested because the Wii's online infrastructure sucks balls.

Well, this is the other thing. Besides the obvious consumer-facing hassle of having multiple friend codes (some games mitigate this by downloading the system friends list but it's still iffy), and no easy or prominent friends list or messaging system (which actually is an issue... I know my family had more than a little trouble figuring out how to message another Wii that launch Christmas; we added a code for the Wii but the friend's request didn't update immediately and the actual process of communicating was similarly delayed and frustrating. c.f. PS360 where requests are obvious and instant and messages are also), I think there probably are some infrastructural issues.

WFC didn't get added until mid-stream. While it's pretty clear that the infrastructure was there before launch, it obviously wasn't provided in the dev kit until much closer to release. The first title to support WFC was Nintendo's Pokemon Battle Revolution, which was post-launch in the US and pretty quickly a chopped, rushed project. It's only a year or two later that games started supporting wifi-related features with some regularity.

DLC didn't get added until mid-stream. The biggest casualty of this was probably Guitar Hero 3; a game widely acclaimed as being an excellent, high quality, high effort port. It's pretty clear that VV made an effort. But the infrastructure wasn't there. There was no way for developers to do DLC.

We also see it with the kind of way that leaderboards are implemented. I'll use Ghost Squad as an example, because it's an excellent game and it has leaderboards. Because the Wii is, surprisingly, not an always-online console, in order to submit to leaderboards you need to wait for a 15-30 second initialization process to connect to the leaderboard server and submit your score. A similar process is involved in just viewing the current leaderboards. The initialization cost is so steep that all relevant leaderboard chunks have to be downloaded in a batch and cached on your system. On the PS3 or 360, leaderboards would be click -> ding!

Plenty of devs have basically said "We haven't included WFC because we're focusing on making an excellent single-player experience", which is pretty much your typical PR bullshit. It'd be nice to cut through that and know to what degree this is a case of developers being lazy / having few resources, and to what degree this is a case of WFC being architecturally tough to deal with or frustrating.

 

[ethelred]

It says right in the article that the 1 year delay "should explain the difference", but I guess it's not completely clear who's saying that.

Nothing about that quote, or Hudson's general pessimism about moving games on WiiWare, should encourage a reading of that quote which suggests that the fraction of copies the WiiWare game has sold versus the XBLA game exactly aligns with the difference in time, meaning that if the XBLA game ceased selling and the WiiWare game continued selling at the exact same pace it would catch up in a year's time (to use one of Josh's favorite devices). You can probably stretch the most literal meaning of those words to come out to something like that, but that would be the most tendentious reading one could possibly imagine. So... it doesn't really shock me that this is the reading you're going with.

The PSN version had been "catching up fast" during the month it had been out, meaning that it hadn't outperformed the WiiWare game yet. Now maybe by "outperforming" you only meant "selling faster", but then the "already" qualifier loses meaning.

If the PSN version nearly eclipsed the WiiWare version in just a month, and if the WiiWare version was only a fraction of the one year old XBLA version, it's pretty obvious the WiiWare version is performing much more weakly compared to the others.

Regardless, it is clear Hudson is not one of the more successful Wiiware publishers.

But Hudson is one of the biggest publishers on the platform... I don't think there are many successful WiiWare publishers in general.

First of all, I just noticed he mentions only WiiWare in those comments. I'm talking about (in line with how the discussion originated) WiiWare/VC as a whole. Secondly, do you have the total sizes of the Wiiware/VC, PSN and XBL markets? (In dollars, total numbers, percentages or whatever.) If you do, just reveal them and we can end the discussion right there. If not, I don't see how you can make any of those claims.

Mike Edery, the former manager of the XBLA platform, commented on that:

Edery, who now runs consultancy Fuzbi, sketched the size of the market for console digital download. He commented that, according to his sources, Xbox Live Arcade was the top in terms of market right now, PlayStation Network is "still lucrative, but potentially smaller", and WiiWare is the smallest of all.

This lines up with what most publishers have said.

But it's irrelevant in this case, because the Wii version is clearly #1 in revenue. (See below.)

Fair enough, I hadn't seen that they handed out a breakdown of sales so detailed so recently.

 

[gerg]

Mike Edery, the former manager of the XBLA platform, commented on that:

[...]

This lines up with what most publishers have said.

(In dollars, total numbers, percentages or whatever.)

 

[ethelred]

(In dollars, total numbers, percentages or whatever.)

Oh, yeah, absolutely. Let me rattle off the sales figures of every DD game on all the platforms.

Or since is this is obviously information none of us will ever have we can go off the words that are used by people who have access to that information and the ability to share it, since our ultimate goal here is to expand our understanding rather than win a dick waggling contest.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Nintendo Channel does this.

Let's assume someone is so tech stupid that they don't understand megabytes and they're scared of controllers and only feel good about using a gaming console now that the familiar remote paradigm is used. This is a person who fits in the new, expanded Nintendo audience.

Now, in terms of making finding out about these games intuitive, consider that the person needs to setup their Wii for online connectivity, connect to the shop, "buy" something called the Nintendo Channel, which they'd have to click on or preview to understand that it's basically a catalog of Nintendo products. Then to view the videos, they have to use the Nintendo Channel instead of the Shop Channel and while the Nintendo Channel redirects properly to the Shop Channel, vice versa does not apply.

I would also say that while the newer Nintendo Channel design is decent, it's not great and this is partially because Nintendo took great care to make every interface item big enough to avoid Wii Remote precision issues; at the cost of having some interfaces that aren't particularly intuitive.

I think it's pretty schizophrenic to assume that the same people who are so tech stupid that they can't adapt to even the most basic of PC usage or gaming paradigms are going to be willing to adapt to this particular hand-wringing.

 

[Somnid]

Plenty of devs have basically said "We haven't included WFC because we're focusing on making an excellent single-player experience", which is pretty much your typical PR bullshit. It'd be nice to cut through that and know to what degree this is a case of developers being lazy / having few resources, and to what degree this is a case of WFC being architecturally tough to deal with or frustrating.

I feel this article sums it up, Wii projects are completely half-assed: http://wii.ign.com/articles/100/1009916p1.html

I don't remember where I saw it but IGN also commented in that the "persistant online" functionality is provided by Nintendo, just nobody uses it.

Let's assume someone is so tech stupid that they don't understand megabytes and they're scared of controllers and only feel good about using a gaming console now that the familiar remote paradigm is used. This is a person who fits in the new, expanded Nintendo audience.

Now, in terms of making finding out about these games intuitive, consider that the person needs to setup their Wii for online connectivity, connect to the shop, "buy" something called the Nintendo Channel, which they'd have to click on or preview to understand that it's basically a catalog of Nintendo products. Then to view the videos, they have to use the Nintendo Channel instead of the Shop Channel and while the Nintendo Channel redirects properly to the Shop Channel, vice versa does not apply.

I would also say that while the newer Nintendo Channel design is decent, it's not great and this is partially because Nintendo took great care to make every interface item big enough to avoid Wii Remote precision issues; at the cost of having some interfaces that aren't particularly intuitive.

I think it's pretty schizophrenic to assume that the same people who are so tech stupid that they can't adapt to even the most basic of PC usage or gaming paradigms are going to be willing to adapt to this particular hand-wringing.

I'm also suprised they still don't provide it out-of-the-box. But it works just fine if you do have it.

 

[gerg]

Oh, yeah, absolutely. Let me rattle off the sales figures of every DD game on all the platforms.

Or since is this is obviously information none of us will ever have we can go off the words that are used by people who have access to that information and the ability to share it, since our ultimate goal here is to expand our understanding rather than win a dick waggling contest.

In which case, I ask for the repeated comments from publishers lamenting WiiWare's ability to sell games. I'm willing to stand corrected.

At the end of the day, I think that WiiWare probably does have a comparatively small penetration rate compared to its counterparts on the 360/PS3. But if we don't know something we should probably say that we don't know something.

 

[ethelred]

At the end of the day, I think that WiiWare probably does have a comparatively small penetration rate compared to its counterparts on the 360/PS3. But if we don't know something we should probably say that we don't know something.

Oh, I've already said that I don't specifically know the exact dollar amounts on all three platforms. But I'm betting that Edery does, and I don't see anyone with evidence to dispute his description of the breakdown. And I don't see any reason to dispute Hudson's description of the state of things -- that XBLA is the largest, PSN is smaller but still very strong, and Wii is the weakest because the number of consoles connected online just isn't there. Especially given that this is precisely what Iwata himself has admitted.

Edery, though, is a particularly good source because he's got a ton of knowledge and a very deep understanding of the way the console digital distribution market functions right now. He recently gave a speech on this very topic, on the nature of this market and how games sell on it, and if you haven't read the full thing then you certainly owe it to yourself to do that.

 

[vanguardian1]

Or maybe also because the Wii also appeals more towards people who can't get broadband? Heaven knows my 360 is near useless outside of a few single-player gems.

 

[gerg]

Oh, I've already said that I don't specifically know the exact dollar amounts on all three platforms. But I'm betting that Edery does, and I don't see anyone with evidence to dispute his description of the breakdown. And I don't see any reason to dispute Hudson's description of the state of things -- that XBLA is the largest, PSN is smaller but still very strong, and Wii is the weakest because the number of consoles connected online just isn't there. Especially given that this is precisely what Iwata himself has admitted.

Fair enough.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Makes sense that XBLA > PSN > Wiiware seeing how each online platform is leveraged.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Or maybe also because the Wii also appeals more towards people who can't get broadband? Heaven knows my 360 is near useless outside of a few single-player gems.

hahaha this is like the tenth time I've seen you lament your lack of broadband.

It still kinda confuses me that there are current gen gamers who can't get broadband. I live in the boondocks; on a very sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere... and I got broadband in 1996.

I just can't picture where you'd have to live that you can get a PS3, 360, or Wii, but not any kind of broadband connection.