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[Cheez-It]

I really haven´t expected this demand either. Nintendo should really consider re-releasing Wario Land Shake It, sadly they won´t.

The game seems good, don't get me wrong...

But IMHO it simply isn't comparable. I put the game down and realized I was selling it in 15 minutes. Not worth my time (not that this means it's bad; just that I don't find it fantastic).

 

[SoccerGoaliePro]

ps3 still selling more than the xbox. I wonder if the momentum will continue throughout next year.

 

[charlequin]

If this is true then most people will have to settle for buying a normal Slim + FFXIII, because that would be even more limited than the Crisis Core bundle.

Do you think this will affect hardware sales for launch week?

 

[Jaded Alyx]

ps3 still selling more than the xbox. I wonder if the momentum will continue throughout next year.

I expect the xbox to pull ahead when Halo: Reach is released.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Do you think this will affect hardware sales for launch week?

Importers maybe but demand will not be stunted.

 

[duckroll]

Do you think this will affect hardware sales for launch week?

Honestly, probably not by a lot. If anything it affects the upper limit of possible PS3 unit sales, because it would mean that maybe a few thousand super hardcore fans who would have otherwise bought another PS3 to collect the LE nature of it will be unable to buy it and hence will not buy any PS3 (since they already have one). For the majority of actual hardware sales though, it shouldn't be an issue unless the normal Slim unit runs out of stock too, which is unlikely. I don't see anyone who is interested in FFXIII and a PS3 to suddenly not buy it because the LE is sold out.

 

[vicissitudes]

So, there's the email that NCSX is sending out to people who pre-ordered the limited edition Lightning PS3. In particular this is the part which is of interest:



If this is true then most people will have to settle for buying a normal Slim + FFXIII, because that would be even more limited than the Crisis Core bundle. Even if retailers order a staggering 1.5 million copies of the game initially, which is almost ridiculous, that would only put about 60k of the LEs on the market. Much lower than any of our estimates, that's for sure.

This is just retarded. Does Sony not want to sell PS3s or something? The demand is clearly there. I never understood why even the popular LE bundles are so limited.

Edit: okay I guess people will still buy a regular slim + FFXIII. Still, you can sell them a 250GB version for a marked up price, why not? For some reason Japan loves overpriced special edition consoles (see: FFVII Advent Children 160GB bundle).

 

[Brofist]

ps3 still selling more than the xbox. I wonder if the momentum will continue throughout next year.

:lol what?

 

[duckroll]

Edit: okay I guess people will still buy a regular slim + FFXIII. Still, you can sell them a 250GB version for a marked up price, why not? For some reason Japan loves overpriced special edition consoles (see: FFVII Advent Children 160GB bundle).

It's not marked up though. The price is basically PS3 Slim + FFXIII price. They're probably actually making less money per limited bundle because it's a unique limited production run as opposed to the mass produced Slims.

 

[DR2K]

Given the context of your post, the discussion was clearly first week sales..by any reasonable interpretation you were saying the first week expectations were high.

I can understand that, my post was very vague. But if you look at my post history I know I've mentioned that NSMBwii will sell like gangbusters.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

It's not marked up though. The price is basically PS3 Slim + FFXIII price. They're probably actually making less money per limited bundle because it's a unique limited production run as opposed to the mass produced Slims.

Which probably explains the limited supply more than anything. But thats what really doesn't make sense. The whole point of LE packs is to earn an extra margin on the hardcore consumer. For the cost of an extra disc (with speical content) and some printed artwork, all of which might cost $5 per unit, you can add a $20 margin to the pack.

 

[duckroll]

Which probably explains the limited supply more than anything. But thats what really doesn't make sense. The whole point of LE packs is to earn an extra margin on the hardcore consumer. For the cost of an extra disc (with speical content) and some printed artwork, all of which might cost $5 per unit, you can add a $20 margin to the pack.

The point of a game LE and a limited hardware bundle is completely different.

 

[Opiate]

This is just retarded. Does Sony not want to sell PS3s or something? The demand is clearly there. I never understood why even the popular LE bundles are so limited.

It should be obvious: FFXIII is a third party game -- and in particular, a highly anticipated new third party game. Bundling third party games costs money in a way that bundling first party games does not. Sony has been bleeding money in the games division for years. The end.

 

[Bebpo]

I'm getting the feeling the Wii is going to move more hardware in Dec than the PS3. The extra week + Mario Legs + Nintendo gets better bump in holidays makes me think Wii could do 4 weeks of 80k-100k each. Whereas I think PS3 will get a nice 120k week with FF, then do 60k and fall back to 40k, 40k.

 

[Onesimos]

Off topic, but...

Can we refrain from using the term "retarded" to refer to someone or something as "stupid"? It is as offensive to people who are mentally handicapped.

Thank you.

 

[duckroll]

Off topic, but...

Can we refrain from using the term "retarded" to refer to someone or something as "stupid"? It is as offensive to people who are mentally handicapped.

Thank you.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/retarded

4. Slang: Disparaging.
a. a mentally retarded person.
b. a person who is stupid, obtuse, or ineffective in some way: a hopeless social retard.

I dunno....

 

[Bebpo]

eh, he's right though. It offends some people so it's best to avoid it if you can. I try not to use it for that reason though sometimes I do it without thinking.

 

[lyre]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/retarded



I dunno....

 

[duckroll]

Sorry maybe I just don't understand this, but why would people be offended by the use of the word "retarded"? It's obviously not referring to or making fun of the mentally handicapped when used in most contexts.

 

[kswiston]

Trying this again. I did horribly last week, but maybe this week will bring better fortunes.

Predictions:

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 31k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 63k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 110k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 66k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 195k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 105k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 40k

EDIT: Fixed the Naruto Number

 

[duckroll]

[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 763k

Interesting...

 

[C.T.]

Interesting...

so is he a retard or just too optimistic?

 

[kswiston]

Interesting...

Oops. Serves me right for copying the formatting from Spiegel's post :lol

Fixed.

 

[duckroll]

Oops. Serves me right for copying the formatting from Spiegel's post :lol

Fixed.

763k would have been epic though.

 

[lyre]

Sorry maybe I just don't understand this, but why would people be offended by the use of the word "retarded"? It's obviously not referring to or making fun of the mentally handicapped when used in most contexts.

That's because most people don't know any better; they hear a word all the time, assume its meaning and pick it up without ever knowing its origins and initial purpose thinking it's fine since it's accepted.

After all, 'gypped' is in reference to 'gypsy' and many people, even today, use that as a synonym for being ripped off. Hell, a lot of people still don't know 'mulatto' is a racist term and a hell of a lot of gaffers still use 'jap' as the shorthand for japanese people when its origin was very racist.

 

[cvxfreak]

Sorry maybe I just don't understand this, but why would people be offended by the use of the word "retarded"? It's obviously not referring to or making fun of the mentally handicapped when used in most contexts.

I think it depends on where the person is from. I think it's slightly less acceptable in the often politically-correct U.S. than it is in other places.

Did even more shopping today for the holidays, and NSMB Wii still sells by the half dozen every time I visit game shops.

 

[vicissitudes]

It's not marked up though. The price is basically PS3 Slim + FFXIII price. They're probably actually making less money per limited bundle because it's a unique limited production run as opposed to the mass produced Slims.

Well I think Sony makes a bigger profit margin on the 250GB version, plus they probably wouldn't be paying Square MSRP for the game. Or they could have gone with 120GB lightning edition + FFXIII for 41,600 yen and make like 100k. Just seems silly to limit production if this thing is going to end up being scalped higher than MSRP anyway (which seems very possible).

Sorry maybe I just don't understand this, but why would people be offended by the use of the word "retarded"? It's obviously not referring to or making fun of the mentally handicapped when used in most contexts.

Yeah I just carelessly used it as a synonym for stupid. No offense intended of course, and the modding staff is usually pretty good about this stuff.

 

[GameplayWhore]

Sorry maybe I just don't understand this, but why would people be offended by the use of the word "retarded"? It's obviously not referring to or making fun of the mentally handicapped when used in most contexts.

It's kind of along the same lines of the currently banned phrase, "That's gay!" It's not a specific reference to homosexual people, but it is used to generally denote something negative, which can make some people really uncomfortable. The same effect happens with "That's retarded!" (though I guess it may incense fewer people)


Anyway, I was wondering: In that NSMBW vs MW2 thread that Reggie spawned, was he talking about NA sales or worldwide sales? If it's worldwide, would it be safe to assume that Japan's sales specifically will have NSMBW about two million over MW2 by the end of this month/year? I'm just thinking about it in terms of a handicap to help against the latter's advantage in Western territories.

 

[duckroll]

Anyway, I was wondering: In that NSMBW vs MW2 thread that Reggie spawned, was he talking about NA sales or worldwide sales? If it's worldwide, would it be safe to assume that Japan's sales specifically will have NSMBW about two million over MW2 by the end of this month/year? I'm just thinking about it in terms of a handicap to help against the latter's advantage in Western territories.

It should be US only.

 

[sciplore]

That's because most people don't know any better; they hear a word all the time, assume its meaning and pick it up without ever knowing its origins and initial purpose thinking it's fine since it's accepted.

After all, 'gypped' is in reference to 'gypsy' and many people, even today, use that as a synonym for being ripped off. Hell, a lot of people still don't know 'mulatto' is a racist term and a hell of a lot of gaffers still use 'jap' as the shorthand for japanese people when its origin was very racist.

True but it is kinda the actual medical term they used before "handicap" and "autism" it's just a bit dated now.

On topic: NSMB wii I say wow, I hope Nintendo makes another one like it in the vein of Yoshi island, more 2d platformer games is always a good thing.

 

[Cipherr]

I remember alot of doubts that NSMB Wii would see that kind of success just a month or so back. Im not gonna go dig, but the doubt was high and frequent, then it does damn near a million in Japan in 4 days.

Gotdamn.

 

[nextgeneration]

I'm shocked that people are shocked.

It's fucking 2D playstyle Mario!

SMG is a great game, but 2D Mario is why gaming came back at all.

Given that wii is down considerably this year in Japan, certain wii software titles underperforming, and all the momentum seem to be swinging back towards ps3's way, I'm not surprised at all. I mentioned this before, but I think people are and will continue to underestimate how this game sells. I think 20 million worldwide is doable, as I can easily see this selling in excess of 10 million in just the US alone. Whether or not it reaches that number or even comes close to that number, well, we'll just have to see how good the legs are for this in the coming weeks, months, and years.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I'm gonna have to go with the idea that the sales numbers are front loaded. Yeah, it'll hit over a million. But, think it'll suffer the same fate as SSBB.

No. The first day, it sold less the NSMB DS. During 4 days, it sold more then NSMB DS. The rate of sale is faster and thus we can expect it to have giant legs. From a pure mathematically point of view, it could sell even better the original NSMB DS. But of course good sense says that it won't. In any case, I don't see how it could be a front-loaded game.

 

[Grampasso]

Hmmm... I was skeptical. But NSMB Wii has a real good First Day to Week ratio going here. Looks like it might have decent legs.

Like I showed on that query on garaph some posts ago, historical data for Mario series says that as an average the First Week/LTD sales average is 20%. If it will be even near to that (25%) it will be 3.7 milions.
Last console Mario (SMG) did less than 1 milion and probably costed 4 times what NSMBW did to develop.
Christ, even if it will do "just" 3 milions it will be a huge success moneywise. Kudos to them.

Spoiler

It deserves more sales than NSMB

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Don't worry, maybe we can talk to Ichirou and convince him you actually meant to predict first day numbers.

I'm not easily conv-...oh wait I thought you were talking about me...

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 26k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 77k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 51k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 34k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 162k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 85k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 40k

 

[onken]

I remember alot of doubts that NSMB Wii would see that kind of success just a month or so back. Im not gonna go dig, but the doubt was high and frequent, then it does damn near a million in Japan in 4 days.

Gotdamn.

And by "high and frequent" you mean me and maybe 2 other people? The vast majority were predicting a big hit.

 

[NeonZ]

I didn't post specific numbers, but I'm impressed with Mario's numbers.

SMG is a great game, but 2D Mario is why gaming came back at all.

2d gaming has been almost abandoned by consoles, that's the reason I didn't expect these numbers.

Although I guess I just misunderstood the problem. This game does have 3d graphics, even if the gameplay is limited to a 2d plane... The sales would have only suffered if it still used hand drawn sprites.

 

[Man God]

Wii isn't like other consoles and more importantly 20 million people bought NSMB Wii and the most downloaded VC titles by far are the 2D Mario games.

2D Mario is video gaming. Someone just mentioned it too, it saved gaming in America, which while only very tangentially related to a Japanese sales thread is an outstanding feat on its own.

 

[mclem]

Although I guess I just misunderstood the problem. This game does have 3d graphics, even if the gameplay is limited to a 2d plane... The sales would have only suffered if it still used hand drawn sprites.

I don't think that would have made a difference to sales, actually; while there are key production differences, I don't think most customers would mind all that much.

One of the things that always bothered me about the original Playstation generation is that a lot of the media (and Sony? I was never quite sure if they were directly instigating this) did seem to go all-out to try to push 3D at the expense of 2D graphics, but - and maybe this is my own attitude influencing what I saw - I didn't really get the impression the average *consumer* really cared either way, other than the fact that 3D opened up new avenues of gaming that just weren't possible in 2D.

 

[Haunted]

So, that Mario guy seems pretty popular in Japan, eh?

 

[yurinka]

Top5 First Week:
WII - New Super Mario Bros. Wii 936.734
WII - Super Smash Bros. Brawl 816.198
WII - Mario Kart Wii 608.147
WII - Monster Hunter 3 (tri~) 582.548
WII - Wii Sports Resort 353.827


Wii Million Sellers:
WII - Wii Fit 3.538.570
WII - Wii Sports 3.528.473
WII - Wii Play 2.697.416
WII - Mario Kart Wii 2.370.000
WII - Super Smash Bros. Brawl 1.812.706
WII - Wii Sports Resort 1.355.000
WII - Mario Party 8 1.354.885
WII - Animal Crossing: City Folk 1.182.000

The top5 first week is Wii only? As I remember Capcom said MH2ndG sold almost 1,5 millions first 2 weeks, and I assume other DS games and maybe other some previous PSP Monster Hunter would be here.

Edit: According to Media Create, MH2nG sold 881K first week, and 488K the 2nd week.

Wii isn't like other consoles and more importantly 20 million people bought NSMB Wii and the most downloaded VC titles by far are the 2D Mario games.

I supouse you're ok, but as I know there isn't public Wiiware (like PSN or XBLA) sales numbers. Lolchartz Wiiware sales numbers (like a lot of other of their numbers) are just Nintendo fanboy guess numbers. I remember a Capcom guy loling at their Megaman 9 "first week sales" Wiiware numbers.

 

[Captain Smoker]

The top5 first week is Wii only? As I remember Capcom said MH2ndG sold almost 1,5 millions first 2 weeks, and I assume other DS games and maybe other some previous PSP Monster Hunter would be here.

Edit: According to Media Create, MH2nG sold 881K first week, and 488K the 2nd week.

This is supposed to be a Wii only list.

 

[schuelma]

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 25k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 70k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 45k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 37k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 180k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 75k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 45k

EDIT- THESE ARE PREDICTIONS

 

[Dragona Akehi]

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 25k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 70k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 45k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 37k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 180k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 75k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 45k

Actual numbers or predictions?

I think we're going to have to start using Spiegel's little banner whenever people are making predictions.

 

[schuelma]

Actual numbers or predictions?

I think we're going to have to start using Spiegel's little banner whenever people are making predictions.

Predictions...edited my post so people don't think I'm from the future...

or am I?

 

[Chris1964]

Next week predictions

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 35k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 55k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 85k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 50k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 190k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 65k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 40k

[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii - 350k

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 175k

I think it will end up selling around 350k to 400k, making it just short of Symphonia for the GC.

That would actually put it between GCN Symphonia (~311K) and PS2 Symphonia (~438K including rerelease).

 

[schuelma]

[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii - 350k

If there aren't any stock problems I think it will be higher than that.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Anyway, I was wondering: In that NSMBW vs MW2 thread that Reggie spawned, was he talking about NA sales or worldwide sales? If it's worldwide, would it be safe to assume that Japan's sales specifically will have NSMBW about two million over MW2 by the end of this month/year? I'm just thinking about it in terms of a handicap to help against the latter's advantage in Western territories.

MW2 is, by rough estimates, nearly 1.5 million units ahead of NSMBWii in the UK with the lead growing week by week.

It may have a chance of outselling the PS3 version WW, but combined SKU is a pipe dream, even with the Japanese sales.

 

[schuelma]

It may have a chance of outselling the PS3 version WW, but combined SKU is a pipe dream, even with the Japanese sales.

I wouldn't be so sure. And :lol at NSMB Wii having merely a chance at outselling the PS3 SKU.

Edit- oh wait, you're one the who seemed to imply NSMB was launching weaker than Mario Galaxy in N.A and Europe based off one week of U.K data.