Support NeoGAF

[Moor-Angol]

i didn't expect those numbers for Assassin's Creed 2, especially considering how low multiplatform titles sold on 360 after Bayonetta

 

[slaughterking]

Yggdra Unision - 4700

Meh. :I

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Home console games this gen with larger first weeks than NSMBW's first day: Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Monster Hunter 3. All have opening weeks in the 476-816K range.

So 81k first day for Musou 3 is good?

What were people speculating?

I don't know first days for other Musou/Warriors games, but considering the focus the series has had on other systems versus Wii getting Katana two years ago, I wasn't expecting it would do as well as the biggest PS3 entries. Still shouldn't, but it at least joins only a handful of third party Wii games that will debut over 100K (barring EXTREME front-loading).

Media Create site gives me last week's rankings. Anyone else with the same problem?

Here too.

 

[Road]

Media Create site gives me last week's rankings. Anyone else with the same problem?

http://64.233.163.132/search?q=cach.../ranking/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-a

Maybe there was something wrong?

NSMBWii very similar to NSMB, which is great, but am I going to be spanked on the other stuff predictions... lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Hm. SW3 did all right, I guess.

If by all right you mean worse than any brand new, main line Musou ever, worse than some ports even, worse than some empires and mushouden versions even...then yes, its done all right.

PSP2 - 202k
GvsGN+ - 170k

Surprised myself.

PSP1 did 217k first week, PSP2 does 202k.
GvsG did 160k, GvsGN+ does 170k.

Thought it'd be the opposite...

 

[duckroll]

Thought it'd be the opposite...

I clearly didn't. But unfortunately I'm still going to be raped by PSP2.

 

[Parl]

I doubt it. I just think the Musou series, like other series like Biohazard (but obviously not Final Fantasy :lol) has a guaranteed sales minimum no matter what platform they go to or what time of year they're released in .

We can't compare this to much other than Monster Hunter 3 and Nintendo's games, as when it comes to major iterations of a franchise, or a major new franchise, these are the only data points I'm aware of.

 

[cvxfreak]

We can't compare this to much other than Monster Hunter 3 and Nintendo's games, as when it comes to major iterations of a franchise, or a major new franchise, these are the only data points I'm aware of.

On the Wii, yes, but Musou also has a long enough history on multiple consoles and through multiple iterations to make those other points just as valid in terms of measuring its potential success. Sure, we can compare it to MH3 or Nintendo's games, but the point stands that there's probably a dedicated fanbase out there who'll buy Musou no matter what. And funny enough, Tales and Biohazard are hitting the Wii (both again) soon, so we'll get to see how this theory plays out. To me, these three franchises represent the former million or near-million sellers who've dropped since their height, but still put in considerable numbers.

 

[jesusraz]

Someone might want to double-check this, since I'm not fully awake at the moment...

Hardware - This Week | Last Week | 2009 Sales | Lifetime Sales
1.) Nintendo DS (all models) - 111,532 | 137,674 | 3,331,138 | 28,450,773
2.) Wii - 46,673 | 32,844 | 1,312,870 | 8,791,847
3.) PlayStation 3 - 46,558 | 34,752 | 1,284,059 | 3,906,527
4.) PlayStation Portable (all models) - 42,648 | 37,326 | 1,909,470 | 13,267,573
5.) Xbox 360 - 3,685 | 4,085 | 341,943 | 1,171,380
6.) PlayStation 2 - 2,057 | 2,024 | 195,156 | 21,594,685

XX.) Nintendo DSi LL - 67,243 | 100,553 | 167,796 | 167,796
XX.) Nintendo DSi - 37,021 | 32,070 | 2,686,096 | 3,917,455
XX.) Nintendo DS Lite - 7,268 | 5,051 | 477,246 | 17,780,051
XX.) PlayStation Portable - 38,839 | 32,752 | 1,851,559 | 13,209,662
XX.) PlayStation Portable Go - 3,809 | 4,574 | 57,911 | 57,911

 

[Pureauthor]

If by all right you mean worse than any brand new, main line Musou ever, worse than some ports even, worse than some empires and mushouden versions even...then yes, its done all right.

I honestly thought it would be a massive flop, so yeah.

 

[thestopsign]

I honestly thought it would be a massive flop, so yeah.

Considering it beat out many people's first week predictions on it's first day of sale... it did alright by that standard. The problem is that the game will still under perform for the series unless it gets some serious legs. So really it's a flop, just not as big of a flop as most people were predicting.

 

[Raggy]

NSMBW - 420k
PSP2 - 202k
GvsGN+ - 170k
Tokimemo 4 - 28k
LBP - 2200
Sengoku Musou 3 - 81k
AC2 PS3 - 28k
AC2 360 - 21k
Power Pro Pocket 12 - 23k
Kaiju Busters - 10k
Yggdra Unision - 4700

Are these numbers expected? I'm more interested in how much extra hardware this software sales will provide

 

[Parl]

On the Wii, yes, but Musou also has a long enough history on multiple consoles and through multiple iterations to make those other points just as valid in terms of measuring its potential success. Sure, we can compare it to MH3 or Nintendo's games, but the point stands that there's probably a dedicated fanbase out there who'll buy Musou no matter what. And funny enough, Tales and Biohazard are hitting the Wii (both again) soon, so we'll get to see how this theory plays out. To me, these three franchises represent the former million or near-million sellers who've dropped since their height, but still put in considerable numbers.

They wouldn't buy it if they didn't have a Wii, unless that game became a system seller to them.

The point is that if this game sells well, it points to the either this game being a big system seller, or the Wii had a userbase makeup that allowed this kind of game to sell. With not many main iterations to games on Wii, it's difficult to show if the Wii has, or has had, the potential to sell major iterations of franchises like PS2 did (assuming the franchise didn't naturally peak in that era, and assuming the quality and marketing holds up). So far, there's been the major Nintendo franchises that have been a large success, the major iterations of third party products, which is MH3 and this, the former being a success, no so sure about Koei yet.

Is the argument that this game would have a good opening because of dedicated fans (who own Wii's, therefore there's at least these who would buy such games), and then not sell very well because the Wii doesn't have userbase that would buy this game?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Considering it beat out many people's first week predictions on it's first day of sale... it did alright by that standard. The problem is that the game will still under perform for the series unless it gets some serious legs. So really it's a flop, just not as big of a flop as most people were predicting.

Pretty much. A lot of people were expecting a total bomb - even with the hardware bundle - so seeing it on track to do 100k+ first week is a pleasant surprise, even if it is still a fair drop-off from previous releases.

I still think it would have been worthwhile getting Wii ports of previous titles to prepare the ground for the game, as having nothing but the rather shitty SW:Katana game from a couple of years back to warm things up strikes me as being rather daft - Koei could have learnt from Capcom with their MHG/MHTri releases.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Considering it beat out many people's first week predictions on it's first day of sale... it did alright by that standard. The problem is that the game will still under perform for the series unless it gets some serious legs. So really it's a flop, just not as big of a flop as most people were predicting.

Its not a huge lot, although its indeed unusual for 1st day sales killing 1st week predictions.

SM3 has killed 4 out of 20 (not counting Wind Yoshi joke numbers).
But PSP2 has killed 3 too (yours included Stopsign ).


Following first day comparisons:
NSMB DS did 480k, NSMB Wii does 420k
Assassins Creed 360 did 20k, AC2 360 does 21k
Assassins Creed PS3 did 20k, AC2 PS3 does 28k
Love Plus did 22k, Tokimeki 4 does 28k

AC1 was a 2-month-exclusive on 360, so its a good outcome for the 360 version, it held well while the PS3 version improves a bit. Maybe AC2 overall I was expecting more though (49k vs 40k).

Tokimeki does better than Love Plus but given the latter had surprisingly good legs and it was a new IP, Tokimeki could suffer in future comparisons with it.

 

[onken]

Yeah I thought AC2 would do a bit better on PS3 to be honest.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Captain Smoker I checked your list. I didn't find any important error.

PS3 - Armored Core 4 84.849
The correct number is 83.849 from 2007 top 500. Geocities is wrong.

PS3 - Dynasty Warriors: Strikeforce 48.000
Most recent number is 51.809 from October montly sales.

PS3 - Shin Sangoku Musou 5 (PlayStation 3 the Best) 620
The leak didn't give the system for this number. It can be PS3 or 360. Better don't add it at all. This is the one game difference we have.

Thanks.

You have 22 games with more recent updates than me. Are you sure for the 405.000 rounded number of Winning Eleven 2009?

Hmm, don't know @ WE09, I should edit it probably. ^^

 

[Grampasso]

These numbers are still very consistent. There is the possibility that with DSi LL this time Nintendo centered its objective.

What?

 

[kswiston]

I guessed low on everything, hoping that the flood of releases would cannibalize sales a bit. Turns out that wasn't the case :lol

Oh well. It was my first crack at the weekly prediction game. Hopefully next week goes better.

 

[danielijohnson]

On the Wii, yes, but Musou also has a long enough history on multiple consoles and through multiple iterations to make those other points just as valid in terms of measuring its potential success. Sure, we can compare it to MH3 or Nintendo's games, but the point stands that there's probably a dedicated fanbase out there who'll buy Musou no matter what. And funny enough, Tales and Biohazard are hitting the Wii (both again) soon, so we'll get to see how this theory plays out. To me, these three franchises represent the former million or near-million sellers who've dropped since their height, but still put in considerable numbers.

Were any of those multiple consoles the Gamecube, or the Wii? The series hardly has any kind of history on the Wii and wouldn't it be a safer assumption that the series' dedicated fanbase who'll buy musou no matter what is largely present in the Playstation family and not really elsewhere? I'm not saying it's not a disappointment, but there are factors at play here that shouldn't be ignored.

 

[Jonnyram]

i didn't expect those numbers for Assassin's Creed 2, especially considering how low multiplatform titles sold on 360 after Bayonetta

It's a western game. Most of the 360 audience "accepts" western games. That's about all there is to it.

 

[NintendosBooger]

Very good NSMBWii sales. If I'm correct, the Wii's current user user base in Japan is about the same as the DS's at the release of NSMB, so it makes sense that the two software numbers are similar. NSMBWii will go on to sell at least 2 million.

Good job, Nintendo. You've once again done what the competition (Sony + MS) can't do: create yet another future million-seller in Japan like it was child's play.

 

[gkryhewy]

like it was child's play.

I see what you did there.

 

[schuelma]

Very good NSMBWii sales. If I'm correct, the Wii's current user user base in Japan is about the same as the DS's at the release of NSMB, so it makes sense that the two software numbers are similar. NSMBWii will go on to sell at least 2 million.
.

I agree that they are very solid sales (only idiots like me apparently expected more). However, I'm pretty sure Nintendo has higher expectations for the title than selling 2 million units. They want this to sell Wii systems and sell for years.

 

[schuelma]

Oh and apparently..shocker..the CC Pro bundle for SW3 is selling out :lol

 

[kswiston]

what would be considered a poor hardware bump for the Wii on the back of NSMB Wii? This week's MC number was ~46k, and we are currently on the holiday ramp up. Would less than 75k next week be bad? 85k?

EDIT: Unless I am mixing my weeks up, Wii hardware sales for the same week in 2008 was close to 50k. Sales in 2007 was close to 75k. 2009 Wii hardware sales have been falling somewhere between the two years for the last few weeks, so I would say that 50-60k would be the Wii's baseline sales for the coming week, had NSMB Wii not been released. It will be interesting to see what the actual sales will end up being.

If NSMB Wii leads to a surge in Wii hardware sales this week, and in following weeks, then the PS3 won't catch up, even with FFXIII. If bumps are modest (over the usual bumps associated with December), the YTD hardware race will be more interesting.

Basically, I think that the PS3 needs to be behind the Wii by 100k or less for the year before the release of FFXIII to have any chance at a comeback.

EDIT 2: I might have mixed up my Wii hardware weeks afterall. Thanks for the correction schuelma. My general points still stand though.

 

[Moor-Angol]

It's a western game. Most of the 360 audience "accepts" western games. That's about all there is to it.

uhm... i meant tie-ratio

usually PS3-360 tie ratio is 3:1, the last title which had a good tie-ratio (from a 360 point of view) was Bayonetta, then we had significant different in sales regarding Winning Eleven 2010, Tekken 6, Dragonball Raging Blast and some other minor titles.

probably the fact Assassin's Creed was first released on 360 (i forgot that, i admit) created a "solid" userbase for this title, so sales (actually) are very similar

 

[schuelma]

what would be considered a poor hardware bump for the Wii on the back of NSMB Wii? This week's MC number was ~46k, and we are currently on the holiday ramp up. Would less than 75k next week be bad? 85k?

Last year IIRC the 12/1-12/7 number was 57K, a bump from 50K. That was with no big releases and Animal Crossing having come out 2 weeks earlier. I think a bump to 75K or so is realistic and much lower would probably be disappointing. But the real story is the next week, when sales the last 2 years skyrocket for the holiday's (last year Wii went from 57K to 92K based on nothing but Taiko Wii).

 

[Majmun]

Ps3 up 10k.
Why?

And a good start for NSMBwii. But those sales are still the tip of the iceberg. I expect the game to have some massive legs. And it surely deserves the great sales.

 

[schuelma]

Ps3 up 10k.
Why?
.

I'm guessing FF13 hype is starting..I think someone mentioned the ad blitz has begun.

 

[Majmun]

I'm guessing FF13 hype is starting..I think someone mentioned the ad blitz has begun.

Oh yeah. Totally forgot the game is being released this month in Japan. I still can't really believe it...

 

[[Nintex]]

Oh yeah. Totally forgot the game is being released this month in Japan. I still can't really believe it...

Me neither I guess people who pick up the game find a voucher in their case to go pick it up next year with a personal message from Yoichi Wada.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Probably NSMBW wil reach 600-700k for the week. Still under what many expected, but more then what I expected. If Wii has not had a significant bump, then its situation will be bad for the immediate future.

 

[schuelma]

Probably NSMBW wil reach 600-700k for the week. Still under what many expected, but more then what I expected. If Wii has not had a significant bump, then its situation will be bad for the immediate future.

I think it should get higher than that..probably 800K or so. It shouldn't be that front loaded.

And I won't be shocked if there isn't a huge hardware bump this week but Wii still does extremely well in December.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Well 81k first day certainly isn't bad at all. Should end up around ~130k by the end of the week, I imagine.

That's maybe the first third party game I see on Wii that sells decently after MH3. I also suspect that NSMBW helped it indirectly.

 

[markatisu]

Oh and apparently..shocker..the CC Pro bundle for SW3 is selling out :lol

Shocking, what's that the third game that had good sales for the controller bundle (MHG and MH3 being the other two)

NSMBW figures seem fine to me, the legs on that title are going to be great.

SW3 surprised me given how all you guys were talking about it

 

[schuelma]

SW3 surprised me given how all you guys were talking about it

Well, let's have some perspective. Expectations were horribly low and at least first day it surpassed those..so instead of being a complete failure it might just end up being a disappointment.

Who knows though, it could show some decent legs over the holidays and have a respectable LTD.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I am not amused we are still lacking 2ch 1st-day-sales leak for last week and now this week too. Sell-throughs, where are you

So just as we wonder just how fucked we are in the predictions given the first day sales...should we discuss which titles we pick up from next week releases? Easy bets: Tales, WE2010 PS2/PSP. Doubtful bunch: Naruto 3, Luminous Arc 3, CODMW2 PS3/360, Family Trainer 2, WE2010 Wii, 999 DS, Bleach Soul Carnival 2...
That's too many imo, would prefer to narrow it to 8 or so. The doubtful bunch previous comparable games were all 15 to 35k stuff (in their 1st week), but its not hard to see that Naruto 3 or CODMW2 perception seem to be stronger than Family Trainer or Bleach.

 

[Vinnk]

I'm guessing FF13 hype is starting..I think someone mentioned the ad blitz has begun.

It started right after it got a release date (posters, banners, kiosks) but it really ramped up in November. You can't go anywhere without seeing Lightning (banners outside 7-11, posters in all gamestores, department stores, etc). I would say this game is getting a bigger push than DQIX. But that might be because stores and stuff got burned after S-E cancelled the first release date (had to change all their posters, take down misleading banners, etc.)

 

[schuelma]

I am not amused we are still lacking 2ch 1st-day-sales leak for last week and now this week too. Sell-throughs, where are you

Yes. I think sinobi said something about NSMB Wii's shipment but not sure if google translate got that right. The inconsistency of leaks lately is very disheartening

So just as we wonder just how fucked we are in the predictions given the first day sales...should we discuss which titles we pick up from next week releases? Easy bets: Tales, WE2010 PS2/PSP. Doubtful bunch: Naruto 3, Luminous Arc 3, CODMW2 PS3/360, Family Trainer 2, WE2010 Wii, 999 DS, Bleach Soul Carnival 2...
That's too many imo, would prefer to narrow it to 8 or so. The doubtful bunch previous comparable games were all 15 to 35k stuff (in their 1st week), but its not hard to see that Naruto 3 or CODMW2 perception seem to be stronger than Family Trainer or Bleach.

I say no on WE2010 Wii , CODMW2 360 and Family Trainer 2, yes on CODMW2 PS3.

 

[Frillen]

Probably NSMBW wil reach 600-700k for the week. Still under what many expected, but more then what I expected. If Wii has not had a significant bump, then its situation will be bad for the immediate future.

There's no way NSMBW will sell less than 750k. Between 800k and 900k is pretty much a lock.

 

[schuelma]

It started right after it got a release date (posters, banners, kiosks) but it really ramped up in November. You can't go anywhere without seeing Lightning (banners outside 7-11, posters in all gamestores, department stores, etc). I would say this game is getting a bigger push than DQIX. But that might be because stores and stuff got burned after S-E cancelled the first release date (had to change all their posters, take down misleading banners, etc.)

Interesting.

How is the NSMB Wii push? I know Nintendo is usually more restrained but it seems like its getting a pretty big push.

Of course, I can understand if you don't have many observations..what with a baby and all

 

[Vinnk]

Interesting.

How is the NSMB Wii push? I know Nintendo is usually more restrained but it seems like its getting a pretty big push.

Of course, I can understand if you don't have many observations..what with a baby and all

Not so much in the game stores or things like that but they have been running some good TV spots. They are not on super often but if it is like other Nintendo releases they will keep running for a long time.

 

[Chris1964]

What's going on with the Media Create site? They decided to go back in time?

I am not amused we are still lacking 2ch 1st-day-sales leak for last week and now this week too. Sell-throughs, where are you

So just as we wonder just how fucked we are in the predictions given the first day sales...should we discuss which titles we pick up from next week releases? Easy bets: Tales, WE2010 PS2/PSP. Doubtful bunch: Naruto 3, Luminous Arc 3, CODMW2 PS3/360, Family Trainer 2, WE2010 Wii, 999 DS, Bleach Soul Carnival 2...
That's too many imo, would prefer to narrow it to 8 or so. The doubtful bunch previous comparable games were all 15 to 35k stuff (in their 1st week), but its not hard to see that Naruto 3 or CODMW2 perception seem to be stronger than Family Trainer or Bleach.

Tales of Graces: Big hit of the week
WE2010 PSP: I think J-League 6 will hurt its sales a bit, but still it should sell well.
WE2010 PS2: The decline of the series on PS2 will continue.
Luminous Arc 3: This one should perform well, at least in line with the two previous releases.
CODMW2 PS3: This one will also perform well.
CODMW2 360: After Assassin's Creed II performance, the 360 version shouldn't be written off.

For everything else we are probably looking at 10-30K opening weeks. It's not worth predicting for them.

Here is a chart that needs to be updated waiting to see how big the Wii bump will be next week.

Wii performance after price cut (Media Create)

week	 2007	 2008	 2009
 40	 20.704	 25.330	 35.392
 41	 20.575	 22.877	 30.741
 42	 24.932	 26.024	 29.965
 43	 27.502	 24.292	 25.917
 44	 37.617	 23.123	 28.888
 45	 34.546	 24.726	 31.810
 46	 36.230	 26.787	 26.764
 47	 54.362	 35.298	 32.844
 48	 74.764	 49.848	 46.673
 49	115.057	 56.702	
 50	170.558	 91.641	
 51	232.907	131.054	
 52	152.209	134.958

 

[charlequin]

I don't get what's the problem with NSMBWii. Even Galaxy managed to double its first day sales.

No, onken is right: people are already done buying NSMBW. It's going to hit 500k for the week and fall off the chart afterwards. :lol

 

[Y2Kev]

Duckroll is PSP2's biotch!

 

[Spiegel]

For everything else we are probably looking at 10-30K opening weeks. It's not worth predicting for them.

The Naruto game for psp should do better than that

PS2 Naruto Shippuden Narutimate Accel - 75k/196k
PS2 Naruto Shippuden Narutimate Accel 2 - 94k/196k
PSP Naruto Shippuden Narutimate Accel 3 - ?

 

[Road]

I am not amused we are still lacking 2ch 1st-day-sales leak for last week and now this week too. Sell-throughs, where are you

As I said, the guy that leaks on 2ch mentioned he was going to do 1st day together with 1st week. I was in doubt if it was going to be only for the past week, but considering he didn't post nothing so far about this week's releases, I assume we won't be getting 1st day leaks with sell-through on Fridays from him until further notice.

He did post the first-day data for last week releases's though:

[NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 140,000　(34%)
[WII] Momotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 　23,000　(28%)
[360] Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 (Cave) - LE　7,700　(54%) / RE　5,700　(38%)
[PSP] La Pucelle: Ragnarok (Nippon Ichi Software) - RE 3,500　(30%) / LE 2300　(52%)
[WII] Naruto: Shippuuden Ryujinki (Takara Tomy) -　4,400　(15%)
[PSP] Higurashi Daybreak Portable: Mega Edition (Alchemist) -　RE 2,500　(20%) /　LE 2,200　(41%)
[NDS] Strike Witches: Aoi no Dengekisen - Shin Taichou Funtousuru! (Russel) -　LE 2,700　(45%)　/ RE 780　(17%)
[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX (Hudson) - 1,600　(5%)
[PSP] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega) -　3,600　(10%)
[NDS] Cooking Mama 3 (Taito Corporation) -2,000 (9%)
[WII] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega) -　2,000　(10%)
[PSP] L no Kisetsu: Double Pocket (5pb.) -　LE 1,000　(37%)
[PSP] Gakuen Heaven: Boy's Love Scramble! (NEC Interchannel) -　750　(24%)
[PS3] Fallout 3 (PlayStation 3 the Best) (Bethesda Softworks) - 　1,200　(16%)
[PSP] Itsuka Kono Te ga Kegareru Toki ni: Spectral Force Legacy (Idea Factory) - RE 860　(27%)
[NDS] Tea Dog's Room DS 4: Ochaken Land de Hotto Shiyo? (MTO) -　760　(5%)
[PS2] Nobunaga's Ambition: Tenka Sousei with Power-Up Kit (Koei Teiban Series) (Koei) - 540　(11%)

RE: Regular Edition. LE: Limited Edition.
http://64.233.163.132/search?q=cach...19660/843&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=firefox-a

What's going on with the Media Create site? They decided to go back in time?

When I posted the Google cache page it had the updated numbers. Google is too hasty to update their cache. =(

 

[schuelma]

Here is a chart that needs to be updated waiting to see how big the Wii bump will be next week.

The PS3 number will also be interesting. Is it going to keep rising 10K a week until FF13?

 

[Chris1964]

The Naruto game for psp should do better than that

You are right. I totally missed this game. Don't expect PS2 numbers though.