PSP has a full release list until the end of the year. More than 50 games are going to be released. This number almost matches the number of DS games. But it misses the big title this holiday season. There isn't the title that will sell close to 1 million (now that I see the list again I don't think there is any title that will sell more than 500.000).
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Media Create Sales: Sep 28 - Oct 4
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
slaughterking
Member
Pokemon is likely to sell ~1 million+ through the holiday season. There is no new release with a similar chance, though (aside from Zelda, which I doubt will break 1 million this holiday season and at all actually).
Unlike Famitsu estimates I believe that Professor Layton 4 will become a million seller. The 100 hour bonus RPG and the new movie should help the sales. About Zelda I don't know. It depends on Nintendo and the push they are willing to give it. That they release it the last week of the year doesn't help the game.
Not that DS needs any big title. Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver alone will give DS and this holiday season.
Not that DS needs any big title. Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver alone will give DS and this holiday season.
user friendly
Member
Tomorrow.sinseers said:
jeremy1456
Junior Member
schuelma said:
How much did Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games sell? I thought that reached a million in Japan but I'm uncertain, but that's a title with potential to sell, as is Layton.
Sorry for the late reply. I'm at work.cvxfreak said:Chris, where's our Pokemon HGSS chart?
Famitsu data:
Code:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | [GBC] Pokemon G/S |[GBA] Pokemon FR/LG|[NDS] Pokemon HG/SS| difference |
| | (Sunday 21/11/99) |(Thursday 29/01/04)|(Saturday 12/09/09)| |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | HG/SS-G/S |HG/SS-FR/LG|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
| 1 |1.425.768|1.425.768| 955.337| 955.337|1.408.980|1.408.980| -16.788| 453.643|
| 2 | 438.280|1.864.049| 286.626|1.241.963| 492.385|1.901.365| 37.316| 659.402|
| 3 | 453.500|2.317.549| 161.550|1.403.513| 166.244|2.067.609| -249.940| 664.096|
| 4 | 301.003|2.618.551| 92.626|1.496.139| 270.000|2.338.000| -280.551| 841.861|
| 5 | 436.828|3.055.379| 82.546|1.578.685| 183.000|2.520.000| -535.379| 941.315|
| 6 | 573.247|3.628.627| 61.591|1.640.276| | | | |
| 7 | 477.507|4.106.134| 54.069|1.694.345| | | | |
| 8 | 258.734|4.364.868| 49.576|1.743.921| | | | |
| 9 | 145.778|4.510.646| 56.359|1.800.280| | | | |
| 10 | 144.733|4.655.379| 51.076|1.851.356| | | | |
| 11 | 120.138|4.775.517| 30.037|1.881.393| | | | |
| 12 | 98.055|4.873.571| 26.907|1.908.300| | | | |
| 13 | 76.713|4.950.284| 29.698|1.937.998| | | | |
| 14 | 50.421|5.000.705| 43.406|1.981.404| | | | |
| 15 | 48.587|5.049.292| 51.127|2.032.531| | | | |
| 16 | 47.512|5.096.804| 15.027|2.047.558| | | | |
| 17 | 43.827|5.140.631| 14.350|2.061.908| | | | |
| 18 | 34.957|5.175.589| 16.099|2.078.007| | | | |
| 19 | 33.367|5.208.956| 16.029|2.094.036| | | | |
| 20 | 29.743|5.238.698| 13.400|2.107.436| | | | |
| 21 | 21.582|5.260.280| 14.723|2.122.159| | | | |
| 22 | 15.788|5.276.068| 14.578|2.136.737| | | | |
| 23 | 14.204|5.290.272| 14.843|2.151.580| | | | |
| 24 | -| -| 13.614|2.165.194| | | | |
| 25 | -|5.332.897| 17.140|2.182.334| | | | |
| 26 | 9.987|5.342.884| 15.380|2.197.714| | | | |
| 27 | 7.308|5.350.193| 10.931|2.208.645| | | | |
| 28 | 7.879|5.358.072| 12.497|2.221.142| | | | |
| 29 | 7.597|5.365.669| 17.086|2.238.228| | | | |
| 30 | 7.040|5.372.709| 12.141|2.250.369| | | | |
| 31 | 7.722|5.380.430| 10.014|2.260.383| | | | |
| 32 | 7.657|5.388.087| 8.862|2.269.245| | | | |
| 33 | 7.575|5.395.662| 7.316|2.276.561| | | | |
| 34 | 6.449|5.402.111| 6.917|2.283.478| | | | |
| 35 | 7.120|5.409.231| 7.400|2.290.878| | | | |
| 36 | 8.127|5.417.358| 5.792|2.296.670| | | | |
| 37 | 8.796|5.426.154| 4.717|2.301.387| | | | |
| 38 | -| -| 5.240|2.306.627| | | | |
| 39 | -| -| 3.780|2.310.407| | | | |
| 40 | 10.588|5.451.223| 4.849|2.315.256| | | | |
| 41 | 5.995|5.457.218| 4.095|2.319.351| | | | |
| 42 | 7.940|5.465.158| 3.799|2.323.150| | | | |
| 43 | 3.646|5.468.804| 2.971|2.326.121| | | | |
| 44 | 4.704|5.473.508| 3.820|2.329.941| | | | |
| 45 | 5.002|5.478.510| -| -| | | | |
| 46 | -| -| -| -| | | | |
| 47 | -| -| -| -| | | | |
| 48 | -| -| 25.511|2.377.713| | | | |
| 49 | -| -| -| -| | | | |
| 50 | 4.012|5.495.447| -| -| | | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
|Year| YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | YTD | LTD | HG/SS-G/S |HG/SS-FR/LG|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
| 1 |3.628.627|3.628.627|2.377.713|2.377.713|2.520.000|2.520.000| -1.108.627| 142.287|
| 2 |2.383.096|6.011.723| 202.800|2.580.513| | | | |
| 3 | 76.421|6.088.144| 141.728|2.722.241| | | | |
| 4 | -| -| 161.429|2.883.670| | | | |
| 5 | -| -| 102.232|2.985.902| | | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|
| LTD| -|6.088.144| -|2.985.902| -|2.520.000| -3.568.144| -465.902|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------HG/SS has already sold almost 1 million more copies than FR/LG (alligned weeks) and is less than 500K short of its LTD. It should outsell it in 3-4 weeks. When it outsells it I will replace FR/LG with DQIX. I expect big sales from DQIX this holiday season but if this doesn't happen we will have a battle for the best selling game of this year.
In fact I believe that after December HG/SS will surpass G/S at alligned weekly sales.
Liabe Brave
Member
I know it's pedantic, but I just want to point out that you don't really know this. All trackers are just estimates, and there's nothing that says the true value has to fall between them. It could be higher than the high one, or lower than the low one.Chris1964 said:
I'm sure you know this, but I just wanted to point it out for anyone who might not.
GameplayWhore
Member
jeremy1456 said:
According to jgchartz, the Wii version of Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games has sold 594157 copies, much less than a million.
The million-breaking announcement you might have heard was probably when they announced that the game has surpassed a million when combining both the Wii and DS versions.
If we average the two trackers its obvious that the real number is somewhere in the middle. So Famitsu undertracked and Media Create overtracked.Liabe Brave said:
...
Was that too much ioi?:lol
Seriously now I came to that conclusion from the sharp drop next week from famitsu and the minimum drop from m-create. Taking into consideration that dengeki had PS3 at 43K for Silver Week I posted what looks more possible for me. Of course all these are hypothetical and just my opinion of the reason for the big difference between the trackers.
Cygnus X-1
Member
Road said:
Wii Fit Plus has legs confirmed. I'm amazed by Inazuma 2.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
It did about a million from DS and Wii combined, but the DS version was about 400K. Layton is a good pick, though; the first three are in the 800K-1M range.jeremy1456 said:
To determine if it was too much ioi I'd have to see someone else's, so I can average them to find what the right amount is.Chris1964 said:
test_account
XP-39C²
I wonder how the game/software support for the Wii and/or the PS3 will be from next year year if the hardware sales drop down to under 20k a week for the Wii next year, and 10-15k for the PS3, as you mentioned. If the game support for the Wii and/or the PS3 drops or doesnt really improve that much from 2009, i think that the Wii and/or the PS3 might be in trouble indeed, i agree.schuelma said:
I am sorry for the very late reply on this quote by the way (the quote was written last Thursday) :\ I didnt get around to reply to it earlier.
The Uncharted budget re-release has also been within the Media Create Top 50 each weeks since it launched. One week it almost dropped out though (it was on 50th place one week). I know that those games below Top 30 doesnt really sell that much though, so i am not saying that the Uncharted budget re-release have sold great each week, but it has managed to stayed within the Media Create Top 50 and not dropped out of the chart completely at leastKurosaki Ichigo said:
Pity to hear that there inst much promotion about Uncharted 2 :\ When is Uncharted 2 being released in Japan?Segata Sanshiro said:
EDIT 2: I am sorry for the very late edit here, but i just saw that Uncharted 2 is being released in Japan tomorrow (15th of October 2009). I wonder how Uncharted 2 will sell in Japan, i think that it shall be interesting to see
Did anyone really think that the new PS3 baseline would be 50k? Seeing that the PS3 was down to about 50k the 2nd week after the launch of the PS3 Slim and after the pircecut, it would be very unlikely for the PS3 to stay at 50k for many weeks in a row.schuelma said:
I know that i talked some about 50k each week in average (about 1 years of PS3 hardware sales devided by 52 weeks, this type of average) some weeks ago, but that was just questions from my side if it was 100% impossible, but i later on withdrawed these questions after thinking more about how unlikely it was for the PS3 to sell 50k each week for about 1 year in average. I never really belived that the PS3 would get a new baseline of 50k to begin with either just to underline that, especially seeing that the PS3 hardware sales dropping to about 50k after the 2nd week after the released of the PS3 Slim.
EDIT: I fixed a typo.
onken said:
I was just joking in my earlier post, obviously, but I do think you're going to keep seeing it drop for 3-4 more weeks. I don't think its going to get to 10K or anything, but I could see it going down to 15K or perhaps a bit lower.
BishopLamont
Banned
Will this be the first time a remake outsells the original?Chris1964 said:
Edit: Wait...H/G did 6M? Well we got a long wait if it does end up outselling it.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
BishopLamont said:
I think Kirby Super Star Ultra beat Kirby Super Star's sales.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, i was wondering if anyone had really predicted a 50k baseline for the PS3schuelma said:
Ye, i can see a drop in the PS3 hardware sales for 3-4 more weeks as you say, i agree, especially since there arent any big titled PS3 games coming out in this period (i think?).I like your new avatar by the way, a very cute dog i must say!
Is it your dog if you dont mind me asking?test_account said:I like your new avatar by the way, a very cute dog i must say!
Its our new puppy
My old avatar was actually another Yorkie that my wife had kind of taken care of when she was in college. This one is all ours.test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, cool!schuelma said:Its our new puppy
Congratulations with getting a new puppy! What is that bottle in the picture by the way? I think that it kind of looks like there is a tube from the bottle and that he/she (is it a he or she?) is drinking from the bottle, looks pretty cool, and the picture is really nice i must say! I guess it depends on which games it is. Some western titles can sell about 50k copies in Japan, which can be a decent number, at least in my opinion. Maybe it isnt much point to have bigger TV ad campaigns etc., but some in-store ads might not cost that much (i think?) and this might result in that some western games can end up selling a decent amoutmujun said:
EDIT: I added some text. I am sorry for the late edit :\
Liabe Brave
Member
Like I said, I have no doubt you're making projections based in good faith, and what you say is plausible. But if there's one thing I've learned from longtime sales-agers, it's to try and be as scrupulous as possible with your data. I was speaking less to you and more to lurkers who might think it's acceptable to pull ioi tricks (i.e., flat-out guesses) with the data.Chris1964 said:
Thanks again for your contributions, and please understand I'm by no means comparing you to stab-in-the-dark dilettantes.
test_account said:I guess it depends on which games it is. Some western titles can sell about 50k copies in Japan, which can be a decent number, at least in my opinion. Maybe it isnt much point to have bigger TV ad campaigns etc., but some in-store ads might not cost that much (i think?) and this might result in that some western games can end up selling a decent amout
Is 50k enough to cover distribution, advertising, translation, etc?
I would have thought they'd need to sell at least a couple of hundred thousand. You might be right though because they keep selling western games here even ones that are destined to sell like shit.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i guess that there can be some money to be made on the western games in Japan even if games sells rather poorly, because several of western games does indeed get released eventhough they have a small chance to sell many copies as you say. I guess it depends on how much work that needs to be done translating the game etc. If they just add japanese subtitles to the game, i guess that this doesnt cost too much money to do. But i wonder how much money it is to be made if a game ends up selling like 10k copies. Maybe the western developers/publishers keeps on releasing western games in Japan in hope that the next game that they release will sell good?mujun said:
But unfortunately i have no idea.test_account said:I guess it depends on which games it is. Some western titles can sell about 50k copies in Japan, which can be a decent number, at least in my opinion. Maybe it isnt much point to have bigger TV ad campaigns etc., but some in-store ads might not cost that much (i think?) and this might result in that some western games can end up selling a decent amout
This is funny in the sense that Naughty Dog was one of the most successful Western developers in the Japanese market. The Crash Bandicoot games were very popular in Japan (they outsold many of the better selling Japanese platformers, including Super Mario Galaxy) during the PS1's heyday. I remember reading that the games featured special content for the Japanese version and big ad campaigns (in addition to a great localization for Japanese players). It's very strange that those games had Japanese sales that even the bigger Japanese publishers today would die for.
mujun said:
The publisher Spike said they don't have to sell too many copies of their games in order to succeed, especially if there aren't Japanese voice-overs to pay for. Oblivion has a huge, 'break out the champagne' hit for them. They also said the localizations were a good opportunity for them since Japanese HD software from the big publishers was very limited at the time. There is steadier stream of Japanese software coming to the PS3 now.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
If it's all you have? Maybe.mujun said:
To be fair, Sony's western games have had more success than most in Japan. Crash, Ratchet, and the first God of War (though that one was released by Capcom) all did pretty well in Japan.
Meier said:
I am sure this has been debated many times already but, why would anyone want to play a driving simulator in a handheld? I mean, the point of gran turismo is to showcase extreme car driving realism with awesome visuals and mechanics. A handheld can't do much for that. I haven't seen anything from GT PSP but I suspect is has to do with that.
Racers don't fit very well in Handhelds, the only truly successful one is mario kart and that's basically a snes game, nothing to do with realism.
even with bad sales of the handheld game, GT5 will no doubt be a smash hit. This doesn't tarnish the IP at all, in my opinion.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i wonder why western developers (maybe not all developers, but at least one developer) arent able to do something like this in this generation as well, to make a western game that sells much in Japan. Ratchet & Clank (which isnt made by Naughty Dog though, but made by Insomniac Games which are also western developers) also used to sell quite a bit in Japan. The first Ratchet & Clank game sold over 500k in Japan and the next 3 Ratchet & Clank games sold over 200k each. But the 3 latest Ratchet & Clank games didnt even manage to sell at least 50k each.Johann said:
I guess that the popularity of the Ratchet & Clank serie has gone quite a bit down in Japan. I guess that the same thing is what happend to the Crash Bandicoot serie, that the popularity dropped quite a bit over the years? :\
EDIT: Or has there been any recent Crash Bandicoot games released in Japan (or in other parts of the world as well) by the way?
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Well, it's not like the recent Crash games have been very good at all.test_account said:
As for Ratchet, I think they just over-milked the cow. We're coming up on the ninth game in seven years, and let's be very honest here, after the first game they've pretty much been spinning their wheels. People talk about getting sick of IGAvanias, but even with that series, it's only been seven games over twelve years.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i agree, i also think that most people (generally speaking) wants to play racing simulators on TV instead of on a handheld device (at least in general, maybe there are (or will be in the future) some exceptions). So i also think that GT5 might still sell quite good even if GT PSP ends up not selling that good, i agreesphinx said:
I wonder if the lack of a career mode in GT PSP might have hurt the sales as well. From my understanding, GT PSP seems to be more of a "party game" (or what i shall call it), that friends get together and race against eachother, at least that is the idea i think. I also wonder if GT PSP will have some legs or if it's sales will drop rather quickly. I think it shall be interesting to see
Segata Sanshiro
Member
In Japan, racers don't seem to be very big on the PSP, there's no doubt. Quite a different story from America where three of the top ten selling games of all time on the PSP are racers.sphinx said:
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, i see, i havnt really followed the Crash Bandicoot series the last years, so i havnt kept track of which games that have been released and how good they are. I mostly remember the first Crash Bandicoot game for the Playstation 1Segata Sanshiro said:
Wow, i didnt know that as many as 9 Ratchet & Clank games had been released in 7 years. Thanks for the info!Segata Sanshiro said:
I can then see why the popularity in the Ratchet & Clank series have dropped, especially because the Ratchet & Clank games are quite similar (at least after my knowledge) indeed as you say.EDIT: I wonder how Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time will sell in Japan by the way. I wonder if it will sell better or worse than what Ratchet & Clanks: Tools of Destructions sold (which has an LTD of 39,806 (Famitsu numbers)). The PS3 userbase is bigger now compared to when Tools of Destructions were released, but if people in general have gotten tired with the Ratchet & Clank serie, maybe "A Crack in Time" wont sell more than what "Tools of Destruction" sold.
EDIT 2: Or is Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time being released in Japan by the way? I did a quick search on Amazon.co.jp, but all i found was the strategy guide for the game (not released yet though i think, but it was listed on Amazon.co.jp). But maybe the game is called something else in Japan? "Tools of Destruction" were called "Future of Destruction" in Japan if i am not mistaken.
Segata Sanshiro said:
I agree with you, for Sony (and MS to a lesser degree) western games probably diversify their catalog making it more attractive as well as covering the empty spots on the calendar when no anticipated Japanese made games are scheduled to come out.
P.S Are you the Segata Sanshiro from NG.com?
test_account said:Ah ok, i see, i havnt really followed the Crash Bandicoot series the last years, so i havnt kept track of which games that have been released and how good they are. I mostly remember the first Crash Bandicoot game for the Playstation 1
Wow, i didnt know that as many as 9 Ratchet & Clank games had been released in 7 years. Thanks for the info!
EDIT: I wonder how Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time will sell in Japan by the way. I wonder if it will sell better or worse than what Ratchet & Clanks: Tools of Destructions sold (which has an LTD of 39,806 (Famitsu numbers)). The PS3 userbase is bigger now compared to when Tools of Destructions were released, but if people in general have gotten tired with the Ratchet & Clank serie, maybe "A Crack in Time" wont sell more than what "Tools of Destruction" sold.
EDIT 2: Or is Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time being released in Japan by the way? I did a quick search on Amazon.co.jp, but all i found was the strategy guide for the game (not released yet though i think, but it was listed on Amazon.co.jp). But maybe the game is called something else in Japan? "Tools of Destruction" were called "Future of Destruction" in Japan if i am not mistaken.
I don't know if it's part of the reason for weak sales or not but the old R&C games used to be marketed to kids but with the PS3 ones they seem to be using a more mature approach. That probably appeals to the PS3 owner base but not to the former R&C fanbase.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok, i didnt know that, thanks for the info!mujun said:
I would guess that the 9 Ratchet & Clank game being released in 7 years is one of the main reason for why the latest Ratchet & Clank games havnt sold that well in Japan, but if the R&C games for the PS3 have a more mature approach compared to how the PS2 R&C were more marketed to kids as you say, then maybe this can be one factor as well indeed why the latest Ratchet & Clank games havnt sold that great in Japan.Segata Sanshiro
Member
It's worth pointing out that Size Matters on the PSP sold decently, 125k-ish or so. It's really just Tools of Destruction and Secret Agent Clank that have done weak numbers.
Oh, and I only post as Segata Sanshiro here on NeoGAF and one other very secret place that is not NG. Any other Segatas aside from the man himself are just imitators!
Oh, and I only post as Segata Sanshiro here on NeoGAF and one other very secret place that is not NG. Any other Segatas aside from the man himself are just imitators!
VegaShinra
Junior Member
MC:
Pokemon Gold Heart NDS 189,000 2,474,000
WiiFitPlus Wii 152,000 492,000
Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey NDS 97,000 97,000
Inazuma Eleven 2: Fire Wonder Invaders NDS 95,000 376,000
Tomodachi Collection DS 63,000 1,351,000
Gran Turismo PSP 40,000 174,000
WiiSports Resorts Wii 24,000 1,277,000
Macross Ultimate Frontier PSP 19,000 100,000
Love Plus NDS 19,000 122,000
Dragon Quest IX NDS 16,000 3,982,000
Pokemon Gold Heart NDS 189,000 2,474,000
WiiFitPlus Wii 152,000 492,000
Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey NDS 97,000 97,000
Inazuma Eleven 2: Fire Wonder Invaders NDS 95,000 376,000
Tomodachi Collection DS 63,000 1,351,000
Gran Turismo PSP 40,000 174,000
WiiSports Resorts Wii 24,000 1,277,000
Macross Ultimate Frontier PSP 19,000 100,000
Love Plus NDS 19,000 122,000
Dragon Quest IX NDS 16,000 3,982,000
Well MC paints a better picture for SJ (better than Persona PSP and a larger gap between it and EO2/DS). I doubt it'll beat the popularity of Persona 3 though, it could have better legs since it's a new game but... yeah, still a bit disappointing after we got those first day numbers.
test_account said:
The first game was bundled with the PS2. That's where most of those sales came from.
Also, this will be the 10th Ratchet game if you count the cel-phone game.
Edit: I also think the fact that Deadlocked wasn't very good, and then the PSP game was labled as RC5 didn't help stave off the series' declining popularity.