Support NeoGAF

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

About Uncharted 2, I really don't know. From YSO guys, I see first week predictions of:
80k and 55k.

The rest don't have it on the top3 so its unknown how much they expect it to sell other than the cutoff it won't make (which is fairly high with Pokemon, Wii Fit, Inazuma, Tomodachi...).

Last time I doubted them, SMT SJ:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=17891850&postcount=365

I was browsing yso guys predictions yesterday for this too but since they do a top3, most of them had Wii Fit Plus, Pokemon and Inazuma on them, so you couldn't see their predictions for SMT SJ (other than their 75k to 125k cutoff for top3).

Those few that had them put them from 75k to 95k. I thought it'd have a good chance to do >100k (specially after GT was moved up), not so sure now.

Damn them :/

Uncharted budget re-release did fairly good alongside the PS3 Slim, its not usual to see a re-release with an over 4k first week. Should be enjoying a good word of mouth and some anticipation for the sequel, thus I'd expect to do better than the first but still doubt it can do >30k first week.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

It's just weird. I saw a ton of commercials for Killzone 2 and Resistance 2, but I've only seen one ad for Uncharted 2 (it's an awful ad, too) and literally no in-store promo stuff. I expected them to bury inFamous (it's CERO Z here) but I really thought they'd um, talk about Uncharted 2 at some point.

 

[Road]

People are quoting these hardware numbers on 2ch quite a bit. I don't know from where they came; they certainly may be bogus, but here they are for what's worth:

DSL　5,307
DSi　52,497
PSP　44,230
Wii　29,053
PS3　28,671
PS2　2,547
360　3,221

Edit: I guess they are true, based on bttb's info. Thanks.

 

[schuelma]

People are quoting these hardware numbers on 2ch quite a bit. I don't know from where they came; they certainly may be bogus, but here they are for what's worth:

DSL　5,307
DSi　52,497
PSP　44,230
Wii　29,053
PS3　28,671
PS2　2,547
360　3,221

Seem pretty reasonable

 

[bttb]

.

 

[duckroll]

Seem pretty reasonable

No it's not! It's impossible that the PS3 can drop below 30k. There's a price drop, FFXIII is coming, GT5 is coming, the Japanese are not stupid, they know what is up. They will keep buying the console even if there are no games coming out. Don't be absurd. I'm not listening anymore lalalalalala!

Spoiler

I hope I didn't hurt anyone's feelings!

 

[Chris1964]

It's just weird. I saw a ton of commercials for Killzone 2 and Resistance 2, but I've only seen one ad for Uncharted 2 (it's an awful ad, too) and literally no in-store promo stuff. I expected them to bury inFamous (it's CERO Z here) but I really thought they'd um, talk about Uncharted 2 at some point.

Can you blame them after what Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 sold? Maybe they realized that all this advertisement doesn't worth it.

 

[schuelma]

No it's not! It's impossible that the PS3 can drop below 30k. There's a price drop, FFXIII is coming, GT5 is coming, the Japanese are not stupid, they know what is up. They will keep buying the console even if there are no games coming out. Don't be absurd. I'm not listening anymore lalalalalala!

Spoiler

I hope I didn't hurt anyone's feelings!

Not to mention I'm pretty sure PS3's new baseline is 50K!

 

[cvxfreak]

Last I checked, people were patiently waiting for the PS3 to reach sub-10K again. :lol

 

[schuelma]

Last I checked, people were patiently waiting for the PS3 to reach sub-10K again. :lol

Yeah I don't see that happening for the rest of the year. Could see it dipping to 15Kish though.

 

[gerg]

For a minute I thought that the PSP's figures were the PS3's, and I was like, wat?! :lol

 

[ccbfan]

People are quoting these hardware numbers on 2ch quite a bit. I don't know from where they came; they certainly may be bogus, but here they are for what's worth:

DSL　5,307
DSi　52,497
PSP　44,230
Wii　29,053
PS3　28,671
PS2　2,547
360　3,221

Edit: I guess they are true, based on bttb's info. Thanks.

Excellent Hold for the Wii. Everything else is pretty much as expected.

 

[schuelma]

Excellent Hold for the Wii. Everything else is pretty much as expected.

Yeah pretty solid- a 3K drop from last week. Still a disappointment, but if it can hold to 20K or so until November it might be ok.

 

[FrankT]

Anyone making sub 10k estimates at this point were not really making any kind of reasonable estimate whatsoever. ~20k or so from here to FFXIII is more than reasonable however.

No it's not! It's impossible that the PS3 can drop below 30k. There's a price drop, FFXIII is coming, GT5 is coming, the Japanese are not stupid, they know what is up. They will keep buying the console even if there are no games coming out. Don't be absurd. I'm not listening anymore lalalalalala!

Spoiler

I hope I didn't hurt anyone's feelings!

You just hurt mine brotha.

 

[Nirolak]

I wonder if the PSP will keep holding at its new price point or if it's just experiencing a temporary bump again.

 

[duckroll]

I think what disappoints me the most is that SJ sold 20k more than EO2 did on the first day, but the final weekly figure amounts to just 5k over EO2.

 

[FrankT]

I wonder if the PSP will keep holding at its new price point or if it's just experiencing a temporary bump again.

Actually, long story short I have zero control over this avatar.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

PS3's still sliding. PSP is doing better than expect though. Other than that it looks like just another week.

 

[Nirolak]

Actually, long story short I have zero control over this avatar.

I just noticed the location. :lol

The mods should save with better jpeg compression though, the artifacting bothers me. : (

 

[schuelma]

I wonder if the PSP will keep holding at its new price point or if it's just experiencing a temporary bump again.

What I find interesting, unless I am missing something, is I don't think PSP has a huge holiday title this year.

 

[Nirolak]

What I find interesting, unless I am missing something, is I don't think PSP has a huge holiday title this year.

Isn't Phantasy Star Portable 2 coming out on December 3rd?

I could be mistaken here though.

 

[distantmantra]

What I find interesting, unless I am missing something, is I don't think PSP has a huge holiday title this year.

Not on the level of a Monster Hunter, but Gundam vs. Gundam NEXT Plus should do an easy 300k.

 

[schuelma]

Isn't Phantasy Star Portable 2 coming out on December 3rd?

I could be mistaken here though.

Yeah I believe it is..I don't know if I would call that really huge, but yeah it should do very well.

 

[DMeisterJ]

No it's not! It's impossible that the PS3 can drop below 30k. There's a price drop, FFXIII is coming, GT5 is coming, the Japanese are not stupid, they know what is up. They will keep buying the console even if there are no games coming out. Don't be absurd. I'm not listening anymore lalalalalala!

Spoiler

I hope I didn't hurt anyone's feelings!

Did anyone really think that it wouldn't drop below 50k or 30k? If so, how about someone quoting all of their posts so that we can all point and laugh.

 

[duckroll]

What I find interesting, unless I am missing something, is I don't think PSP has a huge holiday title this year.

Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep is out in Jan. A little late, but certainly still "holiday season".

 

[schuelma]

Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep is out in Jan. A little late, but certainly still "holiday season".

Yeah I knew it was early 2010.

 

[TunaLover]

Price cut didn´t affect Wii sales in the slightest. =/

 

[cvxfreak]

What are the general expectations for KH:BbS?

Probably going to be lower than the PS2 games, but what about 358/2 Days? I expect the DS game to outperform the PSP one in NA, but it can go either way in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

Price cut didn´t affect Wii sales in the slightest. =/

Price cuts have minimal effect on systems which everyone already owns.

What are the general expectations for KH:BbS?

Probably going to be lower than the PS2 games, but what about 358/2 Days?

Definitely higher than 358/2 Days. I think we'll be looking at something around Crisis Core's sales probably.

 

[schuelma]

Probably going to be lower than the PS2 games, but what about 358/2 Days?

Should be higher right? Seems to be positioned much more as a mainline title.

 

[HK-47]

03. [NDS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey (Atlus) - 91,000 / NEW

Japan, you are letting me down.

=(

 

[Nirolak]

Should be higher right? Seems to be positioned much more as a mainline title.

It's also on a system that strikes me as having the Nomura fanbase based on the sales of Crisis Core and Dissidia.

 

[duckroll]

It's also on a system that strikes me as having the Nomura fanbase based on the sales of Crisis Core and Dissidia.

Yeah, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that those games were filled with popular Final Fantasy characters. Nomura fanbase. Yes.

 

[Nirolak]

Yeah, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that those games were filled with popular Final Fantasy characters. Nomura fanbase. Yes.

Well, I mean the Nomura style games, not the fact that Nomura himself worked on them.

Like, I would expect FF Gaiden to do much worse if it was a PSP exclusive than a DS exclusive.

I could be wrong about that, but at least that's what seems to have happened so far.

 

[cvxfreak]

The only thing I have a hard time believing is that many younger gamers (between ages 7 - 12) having a PSP. KH is also popular with female gamers. Both these demographics are solidly represented by the DS. I know this might be a problem for BbS in NA, but in Japan, is KH actually a series for older gamers? For all I know, it could be.

The GBA KH sold 1 Million+ in the U.S.

 

[ethelred]

I think what disappoints me the most is that SJ sold 20k more than EO2 did on the first day, but the final weekly figure amounts to just 5k over EO2.

Its first day sales were higher than I expected; its first week sales were lower than I expected based on the overly high first day sales, but still roughly in line with what I had originally expected for the first week prior to the first day leak.

So like I said, it's disappointing, but not damning. The game will do quite well, though not exceptionally so (as in just barely below Nocturne) and I think it'll end up about where most of us expected.

 

[duckroll]

Well, I mean the Nomura style games, not the fact that Nomura himself worked on them.

Like, I would expect FF Gaiden to do much worse if it was a PSP exclusive than a DS exclusive.

Well, if anything, I don't think it's so much Nomura's artstyle which makes the games suitable on the PSP, but the fact that they're games which benefit more from the expanded capacity and graphical ability the PSP has to offer.

The only thing I have a hard time believing is that many younger gamers (between ages 7 - 12) having a PSP. KH is also popular with female gamers. Both these demographics are solidly represented by the DS. I know this might be a problem for BbS in NA, but in Japan, is KH actually a series for older gamers? For all I know, it could be.

The GBA KH sold 1 Million+ in the U.S.

The GBA KH sold like 350k or something in Japan. Way below any other KH release.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, if anything, I don't think it's so much Nomura's artstyle which makes the games suitable on the PSP, but the fact that they're games which benefit more from the expanded capacity and graphical ability the PSP has to offer.

Yeah, that I definitely agree with.

Perhaps a better way for me to phrase it would be "more action oriented games" that need more processing power to run well in realtime or near realtime.

 

[Mr.NiceGuy]

What's wrong with an almost 29k for PS3 this week ?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I just noticed the location. :lol

The mods should save with better jpeg compression though, the artifacting bothers me. : (

It's not suited for JPEG at all. It bugged me too, th ough, so I made this version for him when I didn't realize it was out of his control. Loses the artifacting and 92% of the file size.

Price cut didn´t affect Wii sales in the slightest. =/

Even at 29K, that's higher than the vast majority of weeks this year.

 

[Chris1964]

-----------------------------------------------------------------
| tracker | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 |
|---------------------------------------------------------------|
| famitsu | 150.832|  54.289|  55.145|  49.673|  37.000|  28.671|
| m-create| 151.783|  55.344|  51.055|  39.960|  37.538|       -|
-----------------------------------------------------------------

And the drop for PS3 continues. Silver Week messed the two trackers. Famitsu overtracked and Media Create undertracked PS3 but it's pretty obvious now that Silver Week was the reason that made the drop softer.

PSP had a bigger drop than Wii. According to Famitsu last week it was:
PSP: 55.000
WII: 32.000

 

[cvxfreak]

The GBA KH sold like 350k or something in Japan. Way below any other KH release.

I'm aware of that. The DS game is about 5K shy of 500K, which is actually quite good, I'd say. Looking back at the GBA in general though, sales for a majority of franchises are lower than on the DS, so it's not surprising that COM's hanging out down there.

I brought up COM's U.S. sales as a measuring stick for 358/2 Days' potential sales there and how I doubt BbS would do those kinds of numbers.

 

[duckroll]

I'm aware of that. The DS game is about 5K shy of 500K, which is actually quite good, I'd say. Looking back at the GBA in general though, sales for a majority of franchises are lower than on the DS, so it's not surprising that COM's hanging out down there.

I brought up COM's U.S. sales as a measuring stick for 358/2 Days' potential sales there and how I doubt BbS would do those kinds of numbers.

Are we talking about US now? Or Japan? I'm pretty confused.

 

[cvxfreak]

Are we talking about US now? Or Japan? I'm pretty confused.

Both! :lol

 

[Vilix]

Why don't you tell us your predictions about First week/LTD for each game so that we know where you base that theory? And even if FFXIII manages to sell more than NSMB Wii the week after its launch (it won't) it will be outsold by Pokemon and maybe Zelda. So only one week in the top for FFXIII.

I'm also disappointed with SMT: Strange Journey.

I can never put an exact figure on it. I just have a feeling. Then again, I thought the DS and the Wii would be total flops. So...

 

[duckroll]

Both! :lol

Okay, my brain just exploded.

So let's simplify it. For Japan, I expect Birth by Sleep to do between 750k to 850k.

I can never put an exact figure on it. I just have a feeling. Then again, I thought the DS and the Wii would be total flops. So...

That funny feeling you have is constipation. It's not what you think it is...

 

[jeremy1456]

I can never put an exact figure on it. I just have a feeling. Then again, I thought the DS and the Wii would be total flops. So...

The Wii I can understand, but the DS? Were you on drugs?

 

[jj984jj]

What I find interesting, unless I am missing something, is I don't think PSP has a huge holiday title this year.

It's not bad, between PSP go launch hype (even if it doesn't fly off the shelves it might give the software a bit more attention) and the week of 12/3 is pretty significant for PSP as well.

 

[duckroll]

It's not that bad, between PSP go launch hype (even if it doesn't fly off the shelves it might give the software a bit more attention) and the week of 12/3 is a pretty significant week for PSP as well.

I think by huge, he means something like Crisis Core and Dissidia, which are way above 500k titles. Even if you take into account Dissidia UT, P3P, GvsG Next Plus, and PSP2, we're looking at a bunch of 200-400k titles, as opposed to having a heavy hitter which will sell close to a million. Of course, as I already pointed out, KH BbS is coming out in Jan...

 

[Vilix]

The Wii I can understand, but the DS? Were you on drugs?

Nintendo had the GBASP (Still the slickest looking handheld IMO). The DS looked attrocious. I didn't, and still don't, care for touch gameplay. But, I was wrong. The DS has THE best games, and it's a tremedous success. ^.^