are you seriously saying that splatoon will move 500k Switch console at launch?!!?!?
500k in a week after launch in a non holiday period??? People are really optimistic.
point is nintendo handhelds dont just dissapear even after a slow start3ds launch DIDNT fail AT ALL
and even the sales after were disappointing for the 3ds potential, not in general
What are you arguing then, that was my initial point.
mario sales were capped by hardware sales but the quick releases of mario games on both the 3ds/wii u definitely didn't help eitherThe point is that it didnt have much to do with the quality of the game. Compare MK8 to MK Wii - did MK8 also perform worse than the Wii game because Nintendo could have developed a better Mario Kart title on WiiU ? I dont think so.
the difference is he's having a civil discussionYou remind me of myself when I defended FFXV sales.
This is smallest amount of Switches - Splatoon 2 will move in it's first two weeks if there is no shortages of the device.
mario sales were capped by hardware sales but the quick releases of mario games on both the 3ds/wii u definitely didn't help either
its a bit of both
If games sold only based on the quality, gaming would be much better today.
It's how mass market sees the games and at that point almost eveything from Nintendo on Wii U looked similar to what 3DS offered.
point is nintendo handhelds dont just dissapear even after a slow start
the switch isn't going to need rebranding or relaunching if it has a slow start
In US that is a way bigger market than Japan... to be fair it is comparable close to all EU markets combined.It honestly feels so surreal how PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours.
That thing was made to print money.
It honestly feels so surreal how PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours.
That thing was made to print money.
It honestly feels so surreal how PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours.
That thing was made to print money.
mario is a special case where its very tied to how their hardware sales, more so than any other big franchises, first or third partyThe thing is - the only reference point we have are the incredible successful Wii/DS games. We actually dont know if the games would have performed much better if there was more time between them.
The games tend to have long legs and sell over the whole generation - so lackluster first week sales at the end are only a small portion of the lifetime game sales.
That why i said for what it was it performed well - it was the same but better, had more competition and was on a less successful system".
Im not even defending NSMB2 performance, since i wasnt a big - just dont think the Wii/DS NSMB games performance are in any way the standard for 2D Mario platforms While selling +1m copies in its first week has been the standard for FF maingames for multiple generations now. .
I agree with your main point - but you made it sound like Nintendo could have recreated the Wii/DS type sales situation if they just developed a better or more different 2D Mario. I dont think thats true.
Everything came perfectly together for the NSMB DS/Wii releases - something we havent seen since the Original Famicom. Sure they could have deliver more inspired follow ups, but i dont think they would have performed much better give the installed base and audience on both systems.
sure, i totally said all thatSo Nintendo can sell whatever they want, if suddenly they say it is their portable system
Everything else doesnt matter
Not the price nor the softwares and not only mass market will buy it but also third parties will also suddenly start to support it with their bigger hits
Mmmmok?
What about no?
a I didnt for Vita when I was among the few anticipating way better sales (still disappointing) after the absymal first 18 months , or when I didnt agree with the doom & gloom of ps4 compared to ps3 in japan unlike someone else now denying that approach
I stay with the pessimistic approach if price and software stay what they are.
do you have iinsider knowledge about a pokemon star bundle coming in october for Switch at 29000¥? If announced I will change my prediction
That is way different from moving goal post
Switch will sell 1 million first day in US??? I hardly doubt that... I huge doubt that.Switch will be the same the question is what will be happening in May/June.
It's usually something that is played a lot at E3, TGS. That's when we will start seeing more are more support I am sure. It is very unlikely that every game in development has already been announced.
Rather than announce things now, they are saving them to show, if they showed the games now then people would say "show us something new, this has already been announced".
People seem to forget every launch how bleak the systems look, how few games, how mediocre the games are, and the incredibly long dry spell of news.
switch will do the same
xbox one also did it
but ps4 was us only
It also something that is played prior to launch that is evidently missing with the Switch. No one said announce every game in development.
Not this stuff again. You know thats the exact thing people said when games like MvCI were announced, not for Switch: they're saving the announcement for the reveal and then look what happened. No doubt there are still cards to be played, that is true for every console, what is being said here is that the cards shown at the reveal, do not show much promise.
Switch will do 1 million in US in 24 hours......lol
XB1 was a WW number.
If you think that switch won't do 250.000 at launch and 1.5million its first year, tell me which numbers do you think it'll do. I can assure you that there won't be any Pokemon switch bundle this year in Japan, so go! I'll save your numbers and we'll see if you move goalposts or no
for the record aostia is betting the switch will sell less than the wii u, which moved around 1.5m after a year
nintendo might aswell pack it up right now
That is not the same lolno switch will do 1 million worldwide in 24 hours
yeah i know that. that is why i said ps4 was us only
It's usually something that is played a lot at E3, TGS. That's when we will start seeing more are more support I am sure. It is very unlikely that every game in development has already been announced.
Rather than announce things now, they are saving them to show, if they showed the games now then people would say "show us something new, this has already been announced".
People seem to forget every launch how bleak the systems look, how few games, how mediocre the games are, and the incredibly long dry spell of news.
That is not the same lol
im counting wii u's launch sales + a full year in salesI said imho it will sell those numbers (250k first week, 1,5 Million YtD ) if no substantial change will happen (price cut or bundle?, MH or Pokemon main chapters announced and so on)
Switch will have 10 months on the market to get its first YtD total, with just one holiday season counting (March to end of december )
So, without changes we dont know yet and secret super games hidden somewhere, at the same wiiu price point, with less time on the market and one holiday season only, yes I see it doing wiiu tier numbers
Would be good to know the reasoning behind a more positive projection based on actual known facts and not assumption or supposed secret games
this is wat u call assumptions my friendSo Nintendo can sell whatever they want, if suddenly they say it is their portable system
Everything else doesnt matter
Not the price nor the softwares and not only mass market will buy it but also third parties will also suddenly start to support it with their bigger hits
Mmmmok?
Well, there's this bit that needs to clarified: when the 3rd party segment was introduced, it was said that there are over 80 games in "active development". The problem is that it's unclear if that was a specific reference to third party games or in general (so, including Nintendo games). Anyway, even assuming Nintendo games are included, going by this
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1333617
There are at least 20 more titles, between Nintendo, indies and third party developers we're not aware of yet. Of course, the amount should increase as time goes by, but I wonder how many of these unannounced titles are from Japanese third party developers.
I agree with your main point - but you made it sound like Nintendo could have recreated the Wii/DS type sales situation if they just developed a better or more different 2D Mario. I dont think thats true.
Can we really expect a lot of Mario Kart? It really doesn't seem to add all that much outside of the revamped battle mode. Why would people who already own it on Wii U buy a Switch to play it? Why would people who didn't want to buy a Wii U to play Mario Kart 8 buy a Switch for what is mostly the same game?
I might be a bit too pessimistic when it comes to the Switch (and Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart DX in particular), but I just don't see the huge appeal yet.
3DS has a long life in front of it. They're going to coexist just fine." - Reggie
If anyone still has doubts that Pokemon Stars will be a Switch exclusive.
2017 is ripe for a price drop that was rumored back in 2016. So yeh, price drop + one last hurrah for 3DS in 2017 means we will see stable sales for the most part.
2018 and onwards, Switch will be the one taking full focus while 3DS goes in the backseat.
Can we really expect a lot of Mario Kart? It really doesn't seem to add all that much outside of the revamped battle mode. Why would people who already own it on Wii U buy a Switch to play it? Why would people who didn't want to buy a Wii U to play Mario Kart 8 buy a Switch for what is mostly the same game?
I said imho it will sell those numbers (250k first week, 1,5 Million YtD ) if no substantial change will happen (price cut or bundle?, MH or Pokemon main chapters announced and so on)
Switch will have 10 months on the market to get its first YtD total, with just one holiday season counting (March to end of december )
So, without changes we dont know yet and secret super games hidden somewhere, at the same wiiu price point, with less time on the market and one holiday season only, yes I see it doing wiiu tier numbers
Would be good to know the reasoning behind a more positive projection based on actual known facts and not assumption or supposed secret games
Switch wont sell 250k at launch, at this price and with this lineup wont reach 1,5 million at the end of the year
Good luck with relunching and rebranding that on the market with Nintendo third party relationship
I said imho it will sell those numbers (250k first week, 1,5 Million YtD )
No. You said this:
And now you're saying this:
So the only serious response you should be given is this:
And when Switch sells more than 300.000 units on its first week (as almost every other console in Japan did at launch) or more than 1.5million YTD you should be mocked because your last alarmist posts (not only in this thread) are ridiculous.
Umm, isn't the supply 2 million WW till end of March? Plus Nintendo loves to generate hype using scarcity at launch. I am not certain there will be 1 million units in US to sell. Japan will prrobanly get half the allocation and the rest will be split across NA and Europe.Switch will sell 1 million first day in US??? I hardly doubt that... I huge doubt that.
Wow you really have an agenda right there
249k first week/1,499,000 units within end of december AT TODAYS CONDITIONS
lets see your projections, shall we?
Maybe with some actual sharable reasoning behind that is not "obvious secret mega game X"
Also bevande my alarmist posts from the last weeks have been spot on with what they actually presented (high price, few games even first party despite the launch delay into March "to have many games alongside the console", no real fact supporting and comunicating the hybrid concept with teams and brands merging with the portable side of things, no sign of third party support with usual japanese portable franchises aka MH despite XX being released on March 17/18 and so on)
The only replies I see are "they obviously will come"
Lets see how things will turn out but note that if I am wrong and Switch will sell good numbers without any significant change /addition to what they showed, I will be mocked, but I will be happy
Wow... this thread has gotten terrible... eek.... "The Switch is going to fail and sell only 2 units EVER vs. IT'S GOING TO SELL BILLIONS" >_> (yes I'm adding a bit of hyperbole, but the discussions are getting to that level).
What are the reactions to Splatoon 2? Apart from the flipping mechanic, it's hard to tell the difference from the first game in all honesty. I know they've changed all the super weapons and what not, have different maps, etc. but it looks more like a Splatoon 1.5 on first glance, mostly due to the (nearly) identical graphics style. Have they mentioned what the local multiplayer options are for the game? A good 1v1 mode or something? I do think the portability is nice, but like other folks mentioned, I feel like charging for online could affect this game.
I think Mario & Zelda look sufficiently different to previous entries and both look fantastic. Not sure what to think of Xeno 2, although it's not really going to be a big factor in terms of sales. What's up with getting Setsuna ported to Switch? It just seems like an odd choice lol...
Square Enix's new business model for small games seems to be just to release them anywhere viable.
Definitely did not expect square to have 3-5 games and Capcom and Level 5 basically nothing.
This week has been full of surprises
It's not just a different 2D Mario. Nintendo games are make or break for their consoles. You can't create buzz for a home console in Japan when you offer more of the same and not something different comparing to handhelds. Wii took off at first years because of motion controls, not because of traditional games.
Even at the traditional games Wii U had nothing innovating to offer and it failed badly
NSMB2 <-> NSMBU
SM3DL <-> SM3DW
MK7 <-> MK8
SSB3DS <-> SSBWiiU
ACNL <-> never mind
And all of them came later than 3DS brothers. With NSMBU especially it looked like a suicide. If Splatoon hadn't happened the system would be dead years ago.
What are the reactions to Splatoon 2? Apart from the flipping mechanic, it's hard to tell the difference from the first game in all honesty..
Splatoon's "sameyness" seems mainly due to the little improvement in graphics. Mario, Zelda, and even Mario Kart (already the best looking wii u game outside of WWHD, and just a port) managed to noticeably improve.
Impressions would be different if the graphics were better, or at least 900p or 1080.