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[muu]

I thought the second half of the series in particular was so bad that I just couldn't finish watching SAO, but I can see why it's so popular. I probably would love the series as well would I still be 16 years old.

But I am not. And that's the bottom line. Kids like "stupid" things all the time. No reason to get angry about it.

According to bits of info from publishers (thru twitter, blogs, 2ch etc) there's no longer a market for characters that have to train to become stronger. Seems the audience either doesn't want to try, or doesn't want to be reminded of the times when they tried but never improved as much as the miracle protagonists in comics and light novels. So you end up with protagonists that start out in God Mode, get the girls for no good reason, etc. Supposedly, in comics where they still do that 'train to be stronger' thing readership drops noticeably during that period.

This is why SAO, despite appearing to be incredibly stupid, sells well -- it's just the trend. Just like the way OreImo pioneered longass, awful sentence-titles... because it boosts sales.

 

[GetemMa]

I think they realize that just releasing those games in the middle of a complete drought would do nothing for the system. Hopefully, they'll have some announcements for the second half of the year and can chain late releases of those games together with them. Really, it's the only reason I can see for delaying them, considering how they certainly will never make something like Pikmin a big important franchise.

I don't really agree that there is a complete drought in Q2, and I guess I don't see how delaying Pikmin 3 and Wonderful 101 closer to other big 1st party games would do anything positive for sales for those games or for the system.

Besides this week, Q1 has without a doubt been a barren wasteland of game releases for the Wii-U.

But Q2 has the following:

Injustice: Gods Among Us
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Directors Cut
Resident Evil Revelations
Sniper Elite V2
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes

and sprinkle in Game and Wario, Wonderful 101, and Pikmin 3 and you have a decent release schedule for a couple months.

I don't think making Q2 almost as barren as Q1 is a better strategy, especially considering the big games being released in Q3 on other systems like Madden, GTA V, Saints Row 4, Rayman Legends, and Splinter Cell Blacklist.

 

[kayos90]

According to bits of info from publishers (thru twitter, blogs, 2ch etc) there's no longer a market for characters that have to train to become stronger. Seems the audience either doesn't want to try, or doesn't want to be reminded of the times when they tried but never improved as much as the miracle protagonists in comics and light novels. So you end up with protagonists that start out in God Mode, get the girls for no good reason, etc. Supposedly, in comics where they still do that 'train to be stronger' thing readership drops noticeably during that period.

This is why SAO, despite appearing to be incredibly stupid, sells well -- it's just the trend. Just like the way OreImo pioneered longass, awful sentence-titles... because it boosts sales.

Wow. Just... wow. rofl.

 

[michaelius]

That sounds like completle contradiction of Monster Hunter explosion and popularity ?

 

[Mpl90]

Looking at Comgnet's preorders, I'm seriously ready to see Luigi's Mansion with a 300k+ debut next week.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Do you have the software lineup for 3DS?
There's Luigi, SMT4, obviously MH, and?

Pokemon and Tomodachi Collection. Someone else can provide a more comprehensive list though.

 

[frankie_baby]

Looking at Comgnet's preorders, I'm seriously ready to see Luigi's Mansion with a 300k+ debut next week.

the only thing that makes me possibly doubt that is if shipment is too low so it sells out

 

[ragincajun77]

It's selling decently enough, based on reasonable expectations for a heavily marketed new IP on Vita. As part of a Hail Mary (along with the price drop and PSO2), it's probably not doing so well, though we'll be better able to judge next week.

I am impressed that you have toned down your rhetoric appreciably.

03-06-2013, 12:53 PM

If you literally mean "weeks," as in "more than one week," then possibly! But by the second post-SS and third post-price-cut week, I expect it to be below 15K.

03-05-2013, 03:51 PM

Definitely this.

I predict no significant impact on the weekly baseline once the bump fades (<15K by the end of the month, <10K by mid-April), but I'll be sure to acknowledge it if I prove wrong, especially if it's by a significant margin.

Is 21K significant?

Honestly, I hope the discussions in these types of threads are just that: discussion. If any gamer actually wanted a console or a handheld to fail that would just be outright stupid. Who wants a market where Nintendo, or Sony or Microsoft holds a monopoly? Healthy competition benefits us all. So even thought I literally hate Nintendo because of the way they treated me during a warranty repair order, I am still rooting for the Wii U to succeed.

P.S. - I am not accusing you, Father_Brain, of wanting the Vita to fail. It seems like the majority of your posts are well thought out opinions based on empirical data as opposed to blind fanboyism.

 

[Magicpaint]

Looking at Comgnet's preorders, I'm seriously ready to see Luigi's Mansion with a 300k+ debut next week.

What did the first one do first week? 300k seems a tad high, doesn't it? Any reports of sellouts and such?

I'm also very interested in what the One Piece Pirate Musou 2 split will be.

 

[BriBri]

Do you have the software lineup for 3DS?
There's Luigi, SMT4, obviously MH, and?

From my site. Most major releases (incomplete)

Nintendo 3DS Release Schedule

Card Fight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory (11 April)
Tomodachi Collection: Shin Seikatsu (18 April)
Detective Conan: Marionette Symphony (25 April)
Ninja JaJaMaru-kun: Sakura-hime to Karyu no Himitsu (25 April)
Shin Megami Tensei IV (23 May)
Tamagotchi no Dokidoki * Dream Omisecchi (23 May)
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D (24 May)*
Gyrozetter: Wings of the Albatross (13 June)
Digimon World: Reigitize Decode (27 June)
Disney Magic Kingdom: My Happy Life (11 July)
Devil Survivor 2: Break Record (Summer)
Little Battlers eXperience Wars & Little Battlers eXperience W: Chou Custom (Summer)
Monster Hunter 4 (Summer)
Flipnote Studio 3D (Summer)
Mario Golf: World Tour (Summer)
Mario & Luigi RPG 4: Dream Adventure (Summer)
Youkai Watch (Summer)
Toriko: Gourmet ga Battle (Summer)
Farewell Umihara Kawase (Summer)
Conception II: Guidance of the Seven Stars and Mazuru’s Nightmare (Summer)
Pokémon X & Y (October)
Inazuma Eleven GO Galaxy (announced)
Ace Attorney 5 (announced)
Hometown Story (announced)
Daigasso! Band Brothers (announced)
King of the Pirates (announced)
Super Smash Bros. 4 (announced)
The Legend of Zelda 3DS (announced)
Monolith Soft game (announced)

* UK/US date and assumed Japanese game, not announced date.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Do you have the software lineup for 3DS?
There's Luigi, SMT4, obviously MH, and?

There's tomodachi collection for golden week. There's also mario & luigi 4, mario golf and DKCR for the summer. MH in August and pokemon in october. Someone has a better more comprehensive list, I'm sure.

Edit: beaten

 

[frankie_baby]

What did the first one do first week? 300k seems a tad high, doesn't it? Any reports of sellouts and such?

amazon have already sold out

 

[Father_Brain]

I am impressed that you have toned down your rhetoric appreciably.

03-06-2013, 12:53 PM


03-05-2013, 03:51 PM


Is 21K significant?

Honestly, I hope the discussions in these types of threads are just that: discussion. If any gamer actually wanted a console or a handheld to fail that would just be outright stupid. Who wants a market where Nintendo, or Sony or Microsoft holds a monopoly? Healthy competition benefits us all. So even thought I literally hate Nintendo because of the way they treated me during a warranty repair order, I am still rooting for the Wii U to succeed.

P.S. - I am not accusing you, Father_Brain, of wanting the Vita to fail. It seems like the majority of your posts are well thought out opinions based on empirical data as opposed to blind fanboyism.

Thanks for keeping it civil.

Yeah, it's definitely not going to be below 15K next week; I was wrong about that, largely because I expected a moderate drop the week after the price cut, rather than a full-fledged second bump from SS. Week after is quite possible, though, and I stand by my overall prediction that the baseline will remain below 10K.

21K would be very significant by my standards, if it actually proves to be the new baseline.

 

[pieatorium]

But Q2 has the following:

Injustice: Gods Among Us
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Directors Cut
Resident Evil Revelations
Sniper Elite V2
LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes

and sprinkle in Game and Wario, Wonderful 101, and Pikmin 3 and you have a decent release schedule for a couple months.

DC comic fighting game
2 year old port
year old port
heh sniper elite
another year old port

The three Nintendo published games might do ok (Pikmin for sure will)but that isn't a decent list at all for Japan. It's a pretty godawful list for anywhere honestly.

 

[Cha]

Was hoping for Soul Sacrifice to do a tiny bit better, but at least its still beating Miku I hope it can hang on for a third week like Senran Kagura. But I think it's safe to say that SS is most probably going to have some stubby legs.
As expected, Vita hardware sales have dropped, but still looking good.

 

[DR2K]

zing???

You gotta love irony even if it's at your own expense.

 

[metalslimer]

It would be pretty amazing if Vita stabilized at 20k with a much worse lineup than the PS3 ever had.

 

[muu]

That sounds like completle contradiction of Monster Hunter explosion and popularity ?

Not really? Personal skill improvement is only one reason for of MH's popularity, after a few hours of figuring things out you got hours and hours where you do nothing except collect loot to get stronger.

And think about the current state of Japan, where you got a growing number of 20-30 somethings that failed their only real stab at employment and have basically had their lives 'ruined.' This is also one of the predominant groups reading/buying these books, and you can probably imagine why they may not be as receptive to a beautification of the 'hard work is rewarded' scheme.

 

[SlipperySlope]

good hold for Vita, if it will be able to stabilyze at 25k or something like that.
I was expecting more from KH 1.5: I think that the underwhelming performance of KH3D were not due only to the 3ds.

Hahahahha. I'm sorry, but why do people hold onto temporary bumps like they'll be something permanent? It there any legitimate reason why the Vita should stay at 25K and not drop back to the gutters soon??

 

[sechsterangriff]

It would be pretty amazing if Vita stabilized at 20k with a much worse lineup than the PS3 ever had.

Opinions. Don't forget the PS3 library in its first year wasn't exactly very big...

 

[metalslimer]

Hahahahha. I'm sorry, but why do people hold onto temporary bumps like they'll be something permanent? It there any legitimate reason why the Vita should stay at 25K and not drop back to the gutters soon??

Everyone stops using their PS3 and PSPs and buys multiplats on Vita. I dont think people realize how hard it would be to be above 20k. 15k would be a sucess after this is all over

Opinions. Don't forget the PS3 library in its first year wasn't exactly very big...

No facts. This is a sales thread.

 

[DR2K]

It would be pretty amazing if Vita stabilized at 20k with a much worse lineup than the PS3 ever had.

Not really, considering it's a portable. I heard Japan likes portables.

 

[serplux]

Not really, considering it's a portable. I heard Japan likes portables.

They don't like portables when there's no games that they like on them, just as everyone else.

 

[sechsterangriff]

No facts. This is a sales thread.

No, BS. By your line of thought, you could launch only one game for a whole year that turns into multimillion seller and and its platform would automatically have a great library by default. Though this is a sales thread, better sales don't necessarily mean "better" games.

 

[zroid]

No, BS. By your line of thought, you could launch only one game for a whole year that turns into multimillion seller and and its platform would automatically have a great library by default. Though this is a sales thread, better sales don't necessarily mean "better" games.

In the context of a sales thread, a "better" game is one whose sales are better. That's just the way of things here.

Unless you're specifically calling out a shit game for having sold a lot (for example) -- but then the meaning is clear.

 

[metalslimer]

No, BS. By your line of thought, you could launch only one game for a whole year that turns into multimillion seller and and its platform would automatically have a great library by default. Though this is a sales thread, sales don't necessarily mean "better" games.

Nice job putting words into my mouth. I never said multimillion seller. Having more than a handful of games break 100k a year would be a sastart. And yes in a sales thread we judge games by how much they sell. Sorry to break it to you. If you want to talk about how amazing some vita games are there is the Vita OT and game OTs

 

[GetemMa]

DC comic fighting game
2 year old port
year old port
heh sniper elite
another year old port

The three Nintendo published games might do ok (Pikmin for sure will)but that isn't a decent list at all for Japan. It's a pretty godawful list for anywhere honestly.

That's a pretty obtuse view.

That "DC comic fighting game" comment is baffling considering Injustice is the most anticipated fighting game of the year coming from a studio that has already been successful with Mortal Kombat and the Wii-U version is being released at the same time as the other consoles.

Calling Resident Evil Revelations a "year old port" is slightly misleading considering it is coming from 3DS. This game is new to anyone playing it on a console or PC.

Pikmin 3 is also hotly anticipated among Nintendo fans and I think Wonderful 101 looks amazing. Both games could lift the system in Japan to a reasonable sales level. Better than now. As I said as my original point, delaying them now would be utterly pointless.

 

[Mpl90]

What did the first one do first week? 300k seems a tad high, doesn't it? Any reports of sellouts and such?

I'm also very interested in what the One Piece Pirate Musou 2 split will be.

[GCN] Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo) - 116.784 / 348.918 / 33,47% 14/09/01

The first one was a Gamecube launch title.

So far there aren't reports of sellouts or anything (except for StreetsAhead anecdotal experience that is...anecdotal, so it can show something happening and it can't), we've had only some tidbits from Sinobi talking about strong preorders and Comgnet. I'll repost the comparison here.

Comgnet corner - March 20th, 2013

[Wii] Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 313pt
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land - 262pt
[3DS] Kid Icarus Uprising - 118pt
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 - 273pt

 

[metalslimer]

That's a pretty obtuse view.

That "DC comic fighting game" comment is baffling considering Injustice is the most anticipated fighting game of the year coming from a studio that has already been successful with Mortal Kombat and the Wii-U version is being released at the same time as the other consoles.

Calling Resident Evil Revelations a "year old port" is slightly misleading considering it is coming from 3DS. This game is new to anyone playing it on a console or PC.

Pikmin 3 is also hotly anticipated among Nintendo fans and I think Wonderful 101 looks amazing. Both games could lift the system in Japan to a reasonable sales level. Better than now. As I said as my original point, delaying them now would be utterly pointless.

Wonderful 101 is not going to lift Wii u anywhere

Luigi looks to continue the Paper Mario and Fire Emblem trend. 3ds has been good to these

 

[ffdgh]

What the heck is Animal crossing running on to keep selling well?

Happy to see the vita didn't drop to the 20k range yet.

 

[Thorgal]

I am impressed that you have toned down your rhetoric appreciably.

03-06-2013, 12:53 PM


03-05-2013, 03:51 PM


Is 21K significant?

Honestly, I hope the discussions in these types of threads are just that: discussion. If any gamer actually wanted a console or a handheld to fail that would just be outright stupid. Who wants a market where Nintendo, or Sony or Microsoft holds a monopoly? Healthy competition benefits us all. So even thought I literally hate Nintendo because of the way they treated me during a warranty repair order, I am still rooting for the Wii U to succeed.

P.S. - I am not accusing you, Father_Brain, of wanting the Vita to fail. It seems like the majority of your posts are well thought out opinions based on empirical data as opposed to blind fanboyism.

Not that i disagree with what you are saying about competition being healthy for the industry but i gotta ask;

Despite the massive amount of shovelware would anyone here truly say that the near total domination of the 900 pound gorilla that was Ps2 was bad for games or was bad for the industry?
I thought most would consider it a golden era for gaming?

if something similar where to occur now would that realy be so bad?

ps Sorry if off topic.

 

[serplux]

Wonderful 101 is not going to lift Wii u anywhere

Luigi looks to continue the Paper Mario and Fire Emblem trend. 3ds has been good to these

No, but the Wii U will actually have a game. And that's an improvement. I honestly have no idea how The Wonderful 101 will sell, but I'm sure it will get a decent marketing push by Nintendo, which will help.

 

[Magicpaint]

[GCN] Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo) - 116.784 / 348.918 / 33,47% 14/09/01

GC version did better than I remembered. And yeah, Comgnet is not the be all end all sales indicator but it's very interesting to see it ahead of 3D Land. I was thinking 150k opening, but it could really do a lot better.

 

[GetemMa]

From my site. Most major releases (incomplete)

Nintendo 3DS Release Schedule

Shin Megami Tensei IV (23 May)
Monster Hunter 4 (Summer)
Mario & Luigi RPG 4: Dream Adventure (Summer)
Pokémon X & Y (October)
The Legend of Zelda 3DS (announced)

Soooo, how does the Vita compete with this?

 

[zroid]

No, but the Wii U will actually have a game. And that's an improvement. I honestly have no idea how The Wonderful 101 will sell, but I'm sure it will get a decent marketing push by Nintendo, which will help.

lol, I don't know man, don't count on that. Remember how it was left in the dust at E3? Nintendo doesn't always market its games.

 

[SmokyDave]

Soooo, how does the Vita compete with this?

It doesn't. It couldn't compete before, it can't compete in the future. The Japanese have spoken on their handheld of choice.

All it needs to do is carve out its own sustainable niche, not compete with the 3DS. For that, they'll need games. Plenty of games.

 

[serplux]

GC version did better than I remembered. And yeah, Comgnet is not the be all end all sales indicator but it's very interesting to see it ahead of 3D Land. I was thinking 150k opening, but it could really do a lot better.

I'm trying to find a correlation as to why things like Harvest Moon, Fire Emblem, Paper Mario, Rune Factory etc. are doing their all-time series high, but I can't figure it out.

lol, I don't know man, don't count on that. Remember how it was left in the dust at E3? Nintendo doesn't always market its games.

They're marketing Wii Street U for God's sake, I'm sure a new release will get some promotion from them.

 

[ffdgh]

Considering how horrible things are for wii u, maybe that'll give them a bit more motivation to market it lol.

 

[Bullza2o]

Looks ok for the Vita this week, I expected lower numbers.

Damn SAO owning the charts. SAO was everywhere when I was in Tokyo last year.

What can Sony make to counter Animal Crossing? Playstation All Stars Crossing!

 

[pieatorium]

That's a pretty obtuse view.

That "DC comic fighting game" comment is baffling considering Injustice is the most anticipated fighting game of the year coming from a studio that has already been successful with Mortal Kombat and the Wii-U version is being released at the same time as the other consoles.

Calling Resident Evil Revelations a "year old port" is slightly misleading considering it is coming from 3DS. This game is new to anyone playing it on a console or PC.

Pikmin 3 is also hotly anticipated among Nintendo fans and I think Wonderful 101 looks amazing. Both games could lift the system in Japan to a reasonable sales level. Better than now. As I said as my original point, delaying them now would be utterly pointless.

What other fighting games are there this year? Most anticipated is a big title to take this year for sure. Also DC comics are popular in the US and ... pretty much nowhere else. Mortal Kombat was so successful in Japan, oh wait no it wasn't because they didn't even release it there. This game will sell way less than MvC 3 (MvC 3 wasn't a big hit in case you were wondering.).

It's not misleading at all it's a year old port that is also coming to other platforms. It's not a notch in the belt of the WiiU's lineup like you sugest.

Pikmin will do well I said that, one game with potential in q2 is not a decent lineup which is what your comment was.

 

[zroid]

What can Sony make to counter Animal Crossing? Playstation All Stars Crossing!

Well, it didn't work with PlayStation All-Stars Bros.

 

[sechsterangriff]

Nice job putting words into my mouth. I never said multimillion seller. Having more than a handful of games break 100k a year would be a sastart. And yes in a sales thread we judge games by how much they sell. Sorry to break it to you. If you want to talk about how amazing some vita games are there is the Vita OT and game OTs

I'm not putting words into your mouth, it's an extreme example of a direct correlation between sales and your definition of "better library".
I've been here long enough to know what a sales thread is about, though I still have issues with expressions like "better game" or "better library" used in a purely numbers context.

 

[metalslimer]

I'm not putting words into your mouth, it's an extreme example of a direct correlation between sales and your definition of "better library".
I've been here long enough to know what a sales thread is about, though I still have issues with expressions like "better game" or "better library" used in a purely numbers context.

Well the comparison is worthless because for a game to have any shot at selling that much it has to have a library to back it up. And you must hate economics then because by any definition on that side vita is a terrible product.

 

[jeremy1456]

I'm predicting 25k for Vita next week.

It's true that ports do usually raise hardware sales, but this is a multiplatform game on both the Vita and PS3, of a sequel to a PS3 title.

Considering the fanbase for a Musou One Piece title is already on the PS3, how many of those people are going to opt to buy a brand new piece of hardware along with the game, or simply buy the game and save a ton of money? If an enhanced port to the Vita came later then it would stand a better chance.

Don't get me wrong; it will keep the Vita above 20k, but it won't magically reverse the downward trend following the price drop.

 

[Father_Brain]

All it needs to do is carve out its own sustainable niche, not compete with the 3DS. For that, they'll need games. Plenty of games.

Barring a miracle or two, that's the real question: whether it can limp along for another few years, selling 2-3 million worldwide (if that) annually on the back of Japanese niche and multiplatform titles, indie DD releases, and the occasional first-party release.

I don't think it can, hence my prediction that Sony will pull the plug by May of next year, but it's at least not impossible.

 

[NotLiquid]

lol, I don't know man, don't count on that. Remember how it was left in the dust at E3? Nintendo doesn't always market its games.

Last time we got a trailer for the game on the Nintendo Direct, Iwata acknowledged people wanting to know more about the game, and Kamiya has said that the suits at Nintendo are incredibly strict with checking up on the development progress. On top of that, Iwata is gearing up to do an Iwata Asks with him when the development will begin wrapping up.

I think it's safe to say that Nintendo, one way or another, will be considering this as one of their own IPs. It'd be silly not to market it, it has the potential to reach an audience, especially with kids (super heroes, tokusatsu, giant mechs etc).

 

[metalslimer]

Barring a miracle or two, that's the real question: whether it can limp along for another few years, selling 2-3 million worldwide (if that) annually on the back of Japanese niche and multiplatform titles, indie DD releases, and the occasional first-party release.

I don't think it can, hence my prediction that Sony will pull the plug by May of next year, but it's at least not impossible.

For this to work it will be on the back of the west more than Japan. I could see it surviving as a niche in Japan if it managed to find some place in the west.

 

[saichi]

My bet is that their objective for now is to provide their own alternative and build on the IP for possible sequels. I don't think anyone is seriously expecting MH levels of success for the first game in a new IP.

There are very few example of a series with 250K first game in a new IP then become a million seller (or even 500K seller) later in Japan.

RE: VITA 20K-25K baseline - While it could be considered "great" comparing to the previous baseline, it would be the same baseline where 3DS was selling when it was considered struggling and forced to take drastic actions to improve to appeal third parties.

 

[Basch]

No! The vita has to stay up! I need more games for my Vita... :'(

As ungodly good as Persona 4 is I'd like to have more joys out of the system beyond P4:G. Is that so much to ask for Japan? We won't get any games here if you guys don't start buying the system and supporting good games. Though, thank you for supporting the 3DS! That system is becoming a holy grail of gaming.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Barring a miracle or two, that's the real question: whether it can limp along for another few years, selling 2-3 million worldwide (if that) annually on the back of Japanese niche and multiplatform titles, indie DD releases, and the occasional first-party release.

I don't think it can, hence my prediction that Sony will pull the plug by May of next year, but it's at least not impossible.

I think the PS4 strategy with regard to the Vita means they are in it for a while. Whether that means they'll keep pouring resources in to it (perhaps the Vita's biggest weakness is that Sony already doesn't put their top tier talent on it with a lot of significant resources) or cut that off is another question. But I think they plan to keep Vitas on shelves for another few years.