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[guek]

I predicted 300k lifetime for Kid Icarus... hm. Will be very interesting to see what kind of legs it has.

I think that's probably when it'll drop off the charts but it'll sell a bit more off of em

 

[Beth Cyra]

Hope KH 3D will do good numbers.
I'm predicting around 500k for launch week and maybe near 900K LTD, if it has legs.

Really?

Matching BBS this early? Well if the quality is as nice as it seems then I hope it does large numbers. I just don't think it will match BBS in LTD.

 

[BorkBork]

Wonder KI will join the Triforce to become the Fearsome Foursome by next month's time. With positive word of mouth and a crapload of content, I could see it doing a slow burn for the foreseeable future.

 

[antonz]

Nintendo is so aggressive with the 3DS in japan. They need to get this kind of aggression worldwide and learn to keep it. They get complacent eventually leading to the "Doomed Nintendo" that has to get aggressive.

Go for the jugular all the time Nintendo

 

[AniHawk]

Hope KH 3D will do good numbers.
I'm predicting around 500k for launch week and maybe near 900K LTD, if it has legs.

i'm thinking 300k launch, 500k ltd if it has legs

 

[Fantastical]

I predicted 300k lifetime for Kid Icarus... hm. Will be very interesting to see what kind of legs it has.

It's got more than legs... it's got wings!

Spoiler

For five minutes and then it has legs

 

[Truth101]

i'm thinking 300k launch, 500k ltd if it has legs

I'd say closer to a 400k launch with a 650k ltd would be closer...

 

[Fantastical]

i'm thinking 300k launch, 500k ltd if it has legs

I think this is realistic.

 

[guek]

Nintendo is so aggressive with the 3DS in japan. They need to get this kind of aggression worldwide and learn to keep it. They get complacent eventually leading to the "Doomed Nintendo" that has to get aggressive.

Go for the jugular all the time Nintendo

Nintendo needs to really restructure their foreign divisions. I feel like NoA at least has been in disarray for a few years now. At present, it feels like japan is their primary market and everywhere else is secondary. It's already really annoying now and I'm going to be really pissed if the trend continues with Wii U.

 

[Erethian]

I'd say closer to a 400k launch with a 650k ltd would be closer...

500k LTD would be a bad result for KH3D, 650k would be below decent.

Edit: Just to illustrate the point, here are the LTD sales for all the portable KH games.

Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days - 530,250
Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep - 733,248
Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded - 221,399
Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep Final Mix - 131,177

 

[Truth101]

500k LTD would be a bad result for KH3D, 650k would be below decent.

Ideally it will open at closer to 500k and hit around a 700k ltd, but you never now.

 

[Pureauthor]

I'm going to guess 'BbS numbers' and go from there.

 

[DCharlie]

Nintendo is so aggressive with the 3DS in japan. They need to get this kind of aggression worldwide and learn to keep it. They get complacent eventually leading to the "Doomed Nintendo" that has to get aggressive.

Go for the jugular all the time Nintendo

there's no difference - everything that they "did" for the 3DS to turn around was already decided way before the "complacent" time - the only real ball drop was the initial price, everything else is in the usual cycle of a platform launch

nothing more, nothing less - no magic.

 

[Erethian]

there's no difference - everything that they "did" for the 3DS to turn around was already decided way before the "complacent" time - the only real ball drop was the initial price, everything else is in the usual cycle of a platform launch

nothing more, nothing less - no magic.

Yeah, though the way NCL handles the home market is a lot better than the other territories. Club Nintendo, marketing, software releases, and so on. Not that it's all that surprising when you've got Iwata right there.

 

[guek]

there's no difference - everything that they "did" for the 3DS to turn around was already decided way before the "complacent" time - the only real ball drop was the initial price, everything else is in the usual cycle of a platform launch

nothing more, nothing less - no magic.

That's a bit disingenuous. While you may be right that most if not all of their current strategy was planned well in advance, that doesn't mean they're not being aggressive or that they shouldn't be commended for it.

 

[DCharlie]

That's a bit disingenuous. While you may be right that most if not all of their current strategy was planned well in advance, that doesn't mean they're not being aggressive or that they shouldn't be commended for it.

The point is that they weren't being aggressive in this "PANIC NINTENDO" framed world where it was a reaction to the poor sales.

 

[guek]

The point is that they weren't being aggressive in this "PANIC NINTENDO" framed world where it was a reaction to the poor sales.

You really don't think that the early few months of the 3DS had any impact on how they've been conducting business? Considering how personally Iwata and the company at large responded to those early lagging sales, I highly doubt that.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

there's no difference - everything that they "did" for the 3DS to turn around was already decided way before the "complacent" time - the only real ball drop was the initial price, everything else is in the usual cycle of a platform launch

nothing more, nothing less - no magic.

I dunno, Mario 3D Land and MK7 only got release dates (and the latter, at least, was apparently rushed a bit) after it was clear they made the decision to lower the price.

It's reasonable to think they were at one point more spread out. Both titles are proven to sell well whenever, but hardware doesn't move like it does at Christmas.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2012 (Mar 12 - Mar 18)

01./00. [NDS] Pokemon + Nobunaga's Ambition <SLG> (Pokemon Co.) {2012.03.17} (¥5.800) - 177.928 / NEW
02./00. [PSP] Shining Blade <RPG> (Sega) {2012.03.15} (¥6.279) - 118.763 / NEW
03./00. [PSP] Puella Magi Madoka Magica Portable # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.03.15} (¥6.480) - 72.526 / NEW
04./01. [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.03.01} (¥8.190) - 35.669 / 752.345 (-60%)
05./00. [PSP] Tokimeki Memorial: Girl's Side Premium - 3rd Story # <SLG> (Konami) {2012.03.15} (¥6.090) - 26.705 / NEW
06./07. [3DS] Monster Hunter 3G # <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.12.10} (¥5.800) - 18.750 / 1.265.143 (+14%)
07./00. [PSP] Amnesia Later # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2012.03.15} (¥6.090) - 17.252 / NEW
08./06. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.01} (¥4.800) - 17.048 / 89.642 (-35%)
09./00. [3DS] If I Were in a Sealed Room With a Girl, I'd Probably XXX <ADV> (D3 Publisher) {2012.03.15} (¥6.090) - 16.234 / NEW
10./09. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 14.871 / 1.590.319 (-2%)
11./02. [3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai # <ACT> (Sega) {2012.03.08} (¥6.090) - 14.404 / 103.141 (-84%)
12./08. [3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.800) - 12.502 / 1.450.873 (-18%)
13./03. [PS3] Street Fighter X Tekken # <FTG> (Capcom) {2012.03.08} (¥6.990) - 12.449 / 67.008 (-77%)
14./10. [3DS] Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin <SLG> (Marvelous AQL) {2012.02.23} (¥5.040) - 12.219 / 130.653 (-19%)
15./00. [PS3] Winning Post 7 2012 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2012.03.15} (¥7.560) - 11.510 / NEW
16./05. [3DS] Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater 3D # <ADV> (Konami) {2012.03.08} (¥5.980) - 10.408 / 42.977 (-68%)
17./00. [PS3] Meikyuu Touro Legasista <RPG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2012.03.15} (¥7.140) - 8.871 / NEW
18./11. [3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy <ACT> (Square Enix) {2012.02.16} (¥6.090) - 8.534 / 121.807 (-40%)
19./04. [PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam UC # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.03.08} (¥5.040) - 8.252 / 62.281 (-85%)
20./00. [PSP] Winning Post 7 2012 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2012.03.15} (¥5.040) - 8.222 / NEW
21./00. [360] Mass Effect 3 <RPG> (Electronic Arts) {2012.03.15} (¥7.665) - 7.191 / NEW
22./00. [PS3] Mass Effect 3 <RPG> (Electronic Arts) {2012.03.15} (¥7.665) - 6.175 / NEW
23./16. [3DS] Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles <ETC> (FuRyu) {2012.03.01} (¥5.229) - 5.409 / 24.669 (-19%)
24./00. [PS3] SSX <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2012.03.15} (¥7.665) - 5.371 / NEW
25./00. [PSV] FIFA Football <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2012.03.15} (¥5.980) - 5.090 / NEW
26./20. [WII] Wii Sports Resort # <SPT> (Nintendo) {2009.06.25} (¥4.800) - 5.042 / 2.832.496 (+0%)
27./19. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 4.782 / 568.249 (-8%)
28./22. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP the Best) <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.09.22} (¥2.990) - 4.760 / 216.319 (+5%)
29./23. [WII] Mario Kart Wii <RCE> (Nintendo) {2008.04.10} (¥5.800) - 4.554 / 3.471.937 (+5%)
30./21. [WII] Wii Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2010.07.08} (¥4.800) - 4.253 / 2.233.597 (-10%)

Top 30

3DS - 10
PS3 - 7
PSP - 6
WII - 4
360 - 1
NDS - 1
PSV - 1

SOFTWARE

------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |
------------------------------------------------
|  PSP  |      32,5% |      10,2% |      26,3% |
|  NDS  |      22,3% |       5,0% |      19,3% |
|  3DS  |      18,4% |      36,0% |      13,4% |
|  PS3  |      16,7% |      36,1% |      26,6% |
|  WII  |       6,2% |       7,5% |      12,4% |
|  PSV  |       2,2% |       2,8% |       0,0% |
|  360  |       1,6% |       2,4% |       1,7% |
|  OTH  |       0,1% |       0,1% |       0,1% |
------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  3DS  |     63.746 |     63.717 |     64.942 |  1.211.509 |    746.767 |   5.347.248 |
|  PS3  |     28.527 |     33.679 |     23.001 |    429.763 |    367.319 |   7.846.911 |
| PSP # |     17.721 |     15.621 |     21.850 |    298.676 |    550.025 |  18.535.784 |
|  PSV  |     11.171 |     10.228 |            |    205.990 |            |     608.784 |
|  WII  |      7.218 |      7.621 |      9.452 |    162.583 |    294.676 |  12.330.326 |
|  360  |        864 |        921 |      1.032 |     14.343 |     40.758 |   1.535.081 |
| NDS # |        655 |        575 |     15.135 |     12.721 |    455.440 |  32.849.204 |
|  PS2  |        563 |        532 |      1.076 |      6.284 |     17.317 |  21.960.575 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  ALL  |    130.465 |    132.894 |    136.488 |  2.341.869 |  2.472.302 | 101.013.913 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  DSi  |        655 |        575 |     14.408 |     12.721 |    436.536 |   8.258.900 |
|  PSP  |     17.721 |     15.621 |     21.367 |    298.676 |    535.842 |  18.375.209 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[LOCK]

Oh wow. I totally over estimated how the previous versions did in Japan. It should at least double or triple those numbers though, the olympics will give it a nice boost shouldn't it?

Yeah it should have good legs, and get an Olympics boost. Only time will tell just how high it will get though.

What is the range that KH3D is expected to sell? What would be a bomba?

<200k bomba
>200k ok
>300k good
>400k great
>500k amazing

That's my scale. I'm expecting something in the 300k range.

 

[guek]

Do you mean LTD or first week?

 

[electroplankton]

23./16. [3DS] Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles <ETC> (FuRyu) {2012.03.01} (¥5.229) - 5.409 / 24.669 (-19%)

That's a nice result for Doraemon!

 

[Nibel]

Will KH3D be launched with the special KH 3DS?

 

[Laguna]

there's no difference - everything that they "did" for the 3DS to turn around was already decided way before the "complacent" time - the only real ball drop was the initial price, everything else is in the usual cycle of a platform launch

nothing more, nothing less - no magic.

There was a big pre launch hype for 3DS for a reason and I wouldn´t call it usual releasing 3 possible multi-million sellers within its first 12 months (especially in Japan) with games like Revelation, Kingdom Hearts etc. as "support" shortly after, even MGS3D was a relative big port before the 2(3)games in one HD collections were announced and released beforehand. It was a very well planed (software) strategy and the biggest reason why people called out any doomsayings as hyperbolic nonsense.

On Vita on the other hand we have to celebrate an ok-ish 100k for gravity daze and the biggest announced game so far is a multi-plattform FFX port with no available media so far, just to put thing into perspective... Sonys own offerings of course are weak in comparison and became even weaker in the past gen but it would be "equivalent" to Sony releasing Gran Tourismo within its first year on a handheld.

The difference is Nintendo went into the Japanese market with a serious effort and with their top teams, securing big 3rd party franchises, while Sony took it very lightly (eg outsourced games, western-centric games, no Gran Tourismo info at all) and taking a lot of things like Capcoms support for granted.

 

[Tenbatsu]

Will KH3D be launched with the special KH 3DS?

 

[Laguna]

I'd say closer to a 400k launch with a 650k ltd would be closer...

The impression I got so far is that there just isn´t that much hype at all for Kingdom Hearts 3D. Personally I expect 180k-270k first week.

 

[guek]

so pretty...

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Kid Icarus not a bomb is quite surprising. But considering the marketing push from Nintendo it is still.....not fantastic. Let's see how it sells next week.

 

[Beth Cyra]

The impression I got so far is that there just isn´t that much hype at all for Kingdom Hearts 3D. Personally I expect 180k-270k first week.

The hype seems to be really low given the amount of attention it's gotten and how well BbS did.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Dang, was hoping Kid Icarus Uprising could break 200k given the reports and placing.
Not the hottest debut, but at least it's not horrible.

Hopefully it has legs.

Considering it was a totally dead and forgotten franchise of NES, sure it's boding pretty well.

I have a feeling Kid Icarus is going to have some strong Nintendo legs, possibly breaking 500K. But don't hold me to it!

Revival of an old franchise, with a special pack and lot of ads before? Mmm, I have the feeling this game is going to be very front-loaded.

3DS unit increase = 30,000
PSVita unit increase = 300

Sony, do something.

Considering Vita has no decent releases and almost no games in the top 30 outside some sporadic title.....it's impressive it keeps selling above 10k.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

dp

 

[Chris1964]

Revival of an old franchise, with a special pack and lot of ads before? Mmm, I have the feeling this game is going to be very front-loaded.

There isn't a special pack.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

There isn't a special pack.

No? Silly me. I was convinced of that.

New releases {2012.04.05}

[PSP] 2nd Super Robot Wars Z: Saisei-hen <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.330)

PSP is getting its fifth Super Robot game it seems. The last one has a LTD of almost 400k and a launching figure of 280k. I wonder if this one will sell even more.

 

[frankie_baby]

Considering it was a totally dead and forgotten franchise of NES, sure it's boding pretty well.



Revival of an old franchise, with a special pack and lot of ads before? Mmm, I have the feeling this game is going to be very front-loaded.

there also seems to have been stock problems so its possible it could hold up pretty well

 

[Chris1964]

No? Silly me. I was convinced of that.

01./00. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) - 132.526 / NEW

I don't see a "#".

 

[Aostia]

01./00. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) - 132.526 / NEW

I don't see a "#".

Chris, what are your feelings about KH3DS so far?
It seems a very solid title, especially compared to the DS entry, but I agree with some previous statements in this topic that was stating poor "hype" level from the market.

 

[Mpl90]

The hype seems to be really low given the amount of attention it's gotten and how well BbS did.

Do you and Laguna live in Japan, so you can tell really that KH3D isn't hyped as BbS? Or do you have just read impressions about it elsewhere? I've been curious about KH3D hype for a while.

 

[Chris1964]

KH3D? I expect something similar to 358/2 Days LTD.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

01./00. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} (¥5.800) - 132.526 / NEW

I don't see a "#".

Very right ;-)

Ah, maybe was Kingdom Hearts 3D who had a a foresaw special pack.

 

[Aostia]

KH3D? I expect something similar to 358/2 Days LTD.

Yhank you for sharing your impression!

 

[Aucool]

Vita absoulety needs one or two games that can boost hardware sales, what's going to exit in Japan in the next months?

 

[Chris1964]

We are about to enter the very slow Q2 2011 period and the expected much stronger 2012. Next weeks will show how higher the market can go this year.

kenka won the prediction round. but he's banned will he come back, my dear mods?

Kiss of death?

 

[Blablurn]

kenka won the prediction round. but he's banned will he come back, my dear mods?

 

[frankie_baby]

We are about to enter the very slow Q2 2011 period and the expected much stronger 2012. Next weeks will show how higher the 3DS can go this year.

fixed

 

[Chris1964]

fixed

Let's see how many 3DS titles will need to match B/W 2 sales.

 

[michaelius]

Vita hate brigade have to postpone party for next week again And chances for that party to actually happen are dropping down with Golden week comming soon which will see a lot of people buying new consoles and games.

Meanwhile as bad as sales are PSV is going to be 1 milion units at end of year as bare minimum and more likely 1,5-2 milions.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Nintendo is so aggressive with the 3DS in japan. They need to get this kind of aggression worldwide and learn to keep it. They get complacent eventually leading to the "Doomed Nintendo" that has to get aggressive.

Go for the jugular all the time Nintendo

I just wonder if this will have some sort of positive effect on their FY results. They're expecting major losses, but in Japan 3DS and 3DS software is going pretty well.

 

[frankie_baby]

Vita hate brigade have to postpone party for next week again And chances for that party to actually happen are dropping down with Golden week comming soon which will see a lot of people buying new consoles and games.

Meanwhile as bad as sales are PSV is going to be 1 milion units at end of year as bare minimum and more likely 1,5-2 milions.

with no software of note and the high price i cant see golden week providing much of a bump for vita at all, if vita does a million by the end of the year thats hardly an acheivement and i really dont see it passed 1.5 million at all

 

[guek]

Vita hate brigade have to postpone party for next week again And chances for that party to actually happen are dropping down with Golden week comming soon which will see a lot of people buying new consoles and games.

Meanwhile as bad as sales are PSV is going to be 1 milion units at end of year as bare minimum and more likely 1,5-2 milions.

It'll be tough for them to net much more than a million if things don't change substantially. If they average 10k a week with roughly 36 weeks left in the year and a 190k current YTD, they'll only sell an additional 360k.

But it's unlikely it'll stay so low for the entire year. Let's say the vita picks up and the overall weekly average for the next 36 weeks goes up to 20k, that's still only an additional 720k, which would be only 910k. Let's add an additional what...an optimistic 300k for the holidays? That'd be 1.21 million for the entire year.

 

[mclem]

We may be looking at a point where the 3DS is the Japanese gaming market.

Prior to the Wii, how was the DS selling compared to all other consoles? I think we're in that approximate stage in the market... although the next question, therefore, is to ask whether the Wii U can do numbers even *vaguely* approaching the Wii's.