Good on Kid Icarus. Really great sales considering its pretty much a new IP. Those arguing that it isn't enough considering marketing budget are ridiculous. I'm not being funny but until I played the game myself I thought it looked totally lame... I think this will have really good word of mouth when people realise how much fun it is/just like Super Smash Bros.
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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2012 (Mar 19 - Mar 25)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Man, I'm so excited to see how that turns out. I love watching sales numbers for some reason. It'll all depend on what kind of games they can secure.
DQX + FFvs + MH all on Wii U would probably go a long way towards establishing it in Japan.
About Wii U I think that: if they'll deliver a low price point with major AAA japanes titles like Mario2d, DQ or MH they can start very well.
Otherwise, in my opinion the most reliable situation will see the Wii U start very below the Wii, but probably if they really understood how crucial third party support is (exploiting also PS3 developments that will continue until 2013 at least in Japan) Wii U could avoid the big drop Wii had in the long term.
Otherwise, in my opinion the most reliable situation will see the Wii U start very below the Wii, but probably if they really understood how crucial third party support is (exploiting also PS3 developments that will continue until 2013 at least in Japan) Wii U could avoid the big drop Wii had in the long term.
Coincidence, or was there a big Sega sale?
Magicpaint
Member
Assuming KH3D does similarly to 358/2 Days...isn't that like underperforming? That wouldn't be a good result imo. It should be doing BBS like numbers.
electroplankton
Banned
We should know Square Enix expectations to say whether it will underperform or not.
frankie_baby
Member
both days and bbs came out in the later half of their systems lives when both had a vastly bigger installed base than 3ds does now, to expect DDD to do similar numbers (at least out of the gate) to either is a bit of a stretch, but it should open solidly and hopefully with the 3ds selling so fast it may have better legs
In my opinion would be a good result.
358 days came out when DS was very much wider in terms of demographic and install base.
Very very higher under that point of view.
Plus, it was the first of too many spinoffs (three in a short time, considering Bbs and Re:coded), and this is the fourth spinoff of a brand that SE is stretching too much, in my opinion.
I agree that KH3DS seems a better episode than 358 days, and up to now there is no "better version" coming out (as it was for 358 days with Bbs incoming) and for these reasons I think that KH3ds could compensate those negative points I described, ending with LTD results similar to 358.
Due to the aformentioned reasons, I think that it will debut worst than 358 (less install base) but should have better legs (same LTD)
grimshawish
Banned
Am hoping Kid Icarus is the 3DS title that joins the 3-headed monster in that list!
Still 'decent' enough sales I'd say, could do a bit higher I think.
Still 'decent' enough sales I'd say, could do a bit higher I think.
I think KH sales will be hurt by Super Robot Wars Z2 Saisei hen releasing next week. I love both franchises but Z2 is completely overshadowing KH and whereas I used to count the hours until I had the next KH in my hand, I'm not really hyped because I'm thinking more about how excited I am to play Saisei hen.
Different audiences...maybe? But when both franchises are 500k sellers, there's got to be a pretty big mainstream crossover audience and releasing them a week apart is going to eat sales from one of the two imo.
Different audiences...maybe? But when both franchises are 500k sellers, there's got to be a pretty big mainstream crossover audience and releasing them a week apart is going to eat sales from one of the two imo.
Magicpaint
Member
358/2 Days was a relatively cheap, outsourced effort from S-E, while KH3D seems only just shy of the calibre of a main title, much like BBS. I dunno, I expect them to expect more than 358/2 and around BBS levels.
Indeed, since the 3DS is currently healthy, that userbase deficiency should be easily compensated with good legs.
A worse debut than 358/2 which started at less than 300k? Eek. It's not like the 3DS has a userbase of say 2 million. It has a currently decent and rapidly growing userbase.
KH3D isn't a spin-off, which is why people are expecting BBS numbers. At least in the long run.
Well, I think that sell 800K on a 5 million units install base is harder than selling them on a platform with 20 million units sold.
Especially if on the second half of the lifetime of a console there are also other titles that already collected similar demographic targets.
Otherwise, ask SE why they usually present the main chapters of DQ only after having prepared the fanbase with other spinoffs waiting for the major install base possible.
This is my opinion and my though about the title possible performance. It's not an excuse.
I think that mine is a legitimate and articulated opinion, so I hope to be allowed to express it.
I think that both BBS and DDD are spinoffs.
The number at the end of the title is crucial for marketing purposes, and in the MC thread that's what we talk about.
I know that the effort spent on that games is comparable to a main chapter, but under a perception point of view for the masses the laking of the offical statment as "new main chapter in the series, finally third episode!" is crucial.
Its hardly an excuse but an explanation...there is still a huge gap between 5 million and 15 million consoles.
Bruno MB
Member
The Wii version was released even earlier, in fact this is the Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games title released later.
By the way, I was going to say that it has a likely chance to be the first portable title of this franchise to outsell its console counterpart. Then I checked the data because I wasn't sure and I was wrong since the DS version of Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games was the best-selling one.
Going by Media Create numbers it has already outsold Final Fantasy XIII-2 even taking into account the weeks Final Fantasy XIII was out of the Top 20.
These are the 5 best-selling PS3 titles (I'll use Famitsu figures since they are more updated)
1. Final Fantasy XIII --- 1,904,313
2. Resident Evil 5 + (Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition + PlayStation 3 the Best) --- 909,796
3. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots + (BEST) --- 896,434
4. Final Fantasy XIII-2 --- 797,986
5. One Piece: Pirate Warriors --- 752,345
I agree.
frankie_baby
Member
support big games yes, support them to what level though yes it does play a part, expecting DDD to do BBS numbers is hilarious with the 3ds userbase as it currently is, that'd be expecting about 1 in 6 3ds owners to buy it thats not gonna happen
michaelius
Banned
You mean like Resident Evil in PAL territories ?
So because a survival horror title on 3DS didnt break sales records, every serious 3rd party effort is about to fail on 3DS in the west even if DS versions sold well ?
No, he's talking about how 358/2 Days easily outsold BBS in Western territories, so it's already established that Kingdom Hearts games can do very well on a Nintendo handheld.
Well, but the 5m userbase is active. Almost everyone there is still playing with the 3ds.
On the PSP side there are many sold PSPs that aren't used anymore.
frankie_baby
Member
true but when bbs released there was still vastly more active psp than there are currently active 3ds
electroplankton
Banned
Comparisons between a console in its maturity with a strong userbase (the same that made KH a success on PS2) and a strong historic line-up including almost similar titles, always userbase-wise (Crisis Core, Dissidia), and a platform with a good installed base but still young, in its first year in the market, need to stop as well.
It's an excuse.
PS3 2,154,685 / MGS4 465,000
PS3 4.276.480 / FFXIII 1.501.964
PSP 6,012,846 / Crisis Core 486,659
PSP 13.891.610 / KH 445.962
PSP 18.285.631 / FFT0 472.253
I think BBS also had more hype. It had that awesome Keyblade wars teaser at the end of KH2 Final Mix that a lot of people in Japan saw and the idea of making an entire game based on that time period with cool knight designs and then covering MAJOR disney princess worlds, was really appealing.
Playing as Sora again and moving the story past KH2 definitely has some appeal. But DDD is being pushed as a start/first half of a larger game and some of the disney worlds in it are the less popular ones or have been done before in other KHs. I don't really think it has the MAJOR KH TITLE marketing push that BBS had, so people will assume it's more in the 358/2 days area.
I think it'll do well, just might not be amazing or anything. Could've used more hype.
Playing as Sora again and moving the story past KH2 definitely has some appeal. But DDD is being pushed as a start/first half of a larger game and some of the disney worlds in it are the less popular ones or have been done before in other KHs. I don't really think it has the MAJOR KH TITLE marketing push that BBS had, so people will assume it's more in the 358/2 days area.
I think it'll do well, just might not be amazing or anything. Could've used more hype.
Road, thanks as always for your work with the predictions. There won't be any predictions this week, right?
Regarding KH3D, does anyone have in hand the HW bumps from 358/2 and BBS launches? I'm pretty sure KH3D can sell more than 500K with the current userbase and I think that anyone who loves KH and doesn't have a 3DS will buy one for it (yeah, a system seller... hence my question about the HW bumps).
I don't know SE expectations but for me selling less than BBS in Japan (< 730K) and selling less than 358/2 worldwide (I don't have the numbers but if I'm not mistaken 358/2 > BBS WW) would be not a bomba but a disappointment.
Regarding KH3D, does anyone have in hand the HW bumps from 358/2 and BBS launches? I'm pretty sure KH3D can sell more than 500K with the current userbase and I think that anyone who loves KH and doesn't have a 3DS will buy one for it (yeah, a system seller... hence my question about the HW bumps).
I don't know SE expectations but for me selling less than BBS in Japan (< 730K) and selling less than 358/2 worldwide (I don't have the numbers but if I'm not mistaken 358/2 > BBS WW) would be not a bomba but a disappointment.
frankie_baby
Member
i really dont get the point you're making there, i dont believe either KHBBS or FFT would've sold anywhere like the same numbers if they'd launched to the same userbase as crisis core
Those titles were the biggest and most hyped games for the listed plattforms - KH 3D is a big game but you cant compare it with a Main FF or MGS core fanbase. Crisis Core has been hyped for 3 years before they released it, same with KH 0/BbS. I expect KH 3D to sell +700K when its all said and done, but it cant be compared with system seller that were hyped for 2-3 years and hit when the console matured.
You expect the 3D to outsell BbS ?
Which 3DS game is bigger than KH 3D?
electroplankton
Banned
This.
It's not a matter of installed base, but more about the perception of the fabanse and the condition the game is meeting in its release.
Sales-wise, Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection.
So userbase has little to no effect in your opinion. gotcha
For certain releases, that is a fact. I've posted detailed comparisons in core series to prove that before.
I ...don't think it's wrong to compare BBS and DDD at all. In sales or in quality or in anything. They're both major KH mainline titles on active and popular handheld systems in Japan where they are the first mainline of that series on the system. They're developed by the same staff and running on what appears to be the same graphical engine. There are differences in how they were developed (2 year timeline versus 3+) and marketed (<1 year marketing vs 2-3 years). But I still think they are quite comparable when the numbers come out.
Bruno MB
Member
I would also say Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney and Paper Mario 3D. In fact I have high hopes for Paper Mario 3D and when I say high hopes I'm talking about around a million unit sales.
And KH with its casual appeal is certainly isnt one of those IPs like MGS or Niche Atlus/Falcom rpgs which will sell pretty much the same amount no matter how big the IP is.
KH is no Mario but it certainly isnt MGS either.
Im not arguing against comparing both titles and i expect KH 3D to sell the same amount as BBs when its all said and done. But still, at this point and with this IP, the user base is still a limiting factor in my opinion. BbS was hyped for years as the beginning of the series, where 3D is being introduced as the semi-finale to KH 3 and its conclusion. Both are very important titles and sales should reflect that with KH 3D.
I don't know what's with 3DS games that we can never compare them to previous releases. We always have been comparing PS3 games to PS2 games, PSP games to PS2 games, DS games to GBA and PS2 games, Vita games to PSP and PS2 games,... but for 3DS games there's always an excuse.
And now new releases from big, established franchises with obvious counterparts are also not good to compare.
And now new releases from big, established franchises with obvious counterparts are also not good to compare.
I don't agree at all. What makes you think KH is a "casual appeal" game?
frankie_baby
Member
comparisson is fine, its expectations that should be kept in check
Disney ? Approachable action battle system ? Lighthearted Story and characters ? For me KH is the definition of RPG with casual appeal.
Thats just my point of view though - how would you describe the series and its appeal ?
What about the actual sales history which we can draw from? It performs exactly like the sort of games you say it is not like, and not like the sort of games you think it is like. What does that say?
I would say KH has historically performed like we expect a major core title from S-E to perform on the platforms it has been on.
When talking about games selling above 700k in Japan I think it´s obvious that we aren´t talking about certain rereleases, certain niche games aiming at a limited but dedicated otaku fanbase selling 100-200k at best. A poster already mentioned how SQEX tries to built up a userbase on a system before they release their mainline games. Especially for a new system it isn´t that easy to gauge if the aimed demographic is actually already there.
Another example for this kind of building up a userbase for a certain genre obviously is the RPG genre, where up till now Final Fantasy mainline games basically paved the way for most other RPG developers. Or a more recent example how Monster Hunter built up a fanbase on PSP so God Eater, PhantasyStar could be relatively successful.
electroplankton
Banned
In particular, which comparisons are you referring to? Imo, there are reasonable comparisons, and less reasonable comparisons. Revelations could not be compared to RE5, and to neither of main chapters, since it was the first serious effort on handheld from Capcom in the series. But Mario Kart 7 could be compared to the DS counterpart, while Project Mirai not with Project Diva (sales shown that: the former was bought mainly by a different userbase). It depends according to the situation. It's not that people want 3DS games to always flop, uh?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
The Disney factor might have gotten a few pulled in at the outset, but that newness is long since gone leaving just those that would come back for more anyway.
Your assessment is sound. Good rolling duck.
I'm not. I'm talking about MGS games. They sell above 700k in Japan, and the major releases have consistently sold similar first weeks and LTD sales on every platform regardless of userbase number.
Cosmonaut X
Member
I think it's fair in the case of something like Resident Evil: Revelations, where there wasn't a portable RE title like it previously, and trying to match it against home console entries seemed a bit off, but yes, for something like Kingdom Hearts it does seem a bit strange not to look to previous portable entries like BBS as points of comparison.
BishopLamont
Banned
358/2 days numbers = good
BBS numbers = great
I don't think either way will change SE's or any developers mind and support for the 3DS.
BBS numbers = great
I don't think either way will change SE's or any developers mind and support for the 3DS.