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[zomgbbqftw]

At first I thought Nintendo might miss the forecasts by 2 million, and now it's looking like it will be closer to 3.

Somewhere in between those two figures by my estimates. I think around 3m sold (edit, shipped) by the end of March, but Nintendo might try and strong arm retailers into accepting more units to try and get closer to investor targets. Wii U is literally dead in Europe, worse than Vita in a few countries.

 

[Miles X]

That's one very optimistic prediction. I might be underestimating how much Nintendo got in the channels though for launch.

You think?

Maybe on closer inspection it is a bit high. If it's down to 20k in Japan now I can only imagin at best that'll be an average over this Q, so 200k in Japan. US something like 400k ..

Not unusual for Nintendo to suck are forecasts, but this would be terribly off.

 

[metalslimer]

Somewhere in between those two figures by my estimates. I think around 3m sold (edit, shipped) by the end of March, but Nintendo might try and strong arm retailers into accepting more units to try and get closer to investor targets. Wii U is literally dead in Europe, worse than Vita in a few countries.

This sounds about right. So is there 1 no country where Wii U is actually doing well in Europe?

If it's down to 20k in Japan now I can only imagin at best that'll be an average over this

Well assuming the lineup that is currently out there sticks, it will be much lower. Nintendo could announce some more games for March though.

 

[Miles X]

Feel sorry for Nintendo, they really only have 3DS in Japan doing great, everything else, everywhere else, they have to worry about right now.

 

[Nekofrog]

Nintendo deserves this.

They brought this situation upon themselves.

And I can't wait to see the drops in other markets. Maybe it'll be a wakeup call and they'll finally start spilling the beans on future titles.

Spoiler

WII SPORTS ONLINE EDITION PLS

 

[zomgbbqftw]

You think?

Maybe on closer inspection it is a bit high. If it's down to 20k in Japan now I can only imagin at best that'll be an average over this Q, so 200k in Japan. US something like 400k ..

Not unusual for Nintendo to suck are forecasts, but this would be terribly off.

You are making an assumption that 20k will become the base level in Japan. I'm not sure that is something we can take for granted.

To miss by 2m Nintendo would need to sell around 1.4m over the next three months. They just about managed to sell ~ 1.9m (US/JPN + 5 EU territories) in the busiest shopping period. The miss is going to be larger than 2m, and barring strong arm tactics from Nintendo I think it will be closer to a 3m miss.

Right now, Wii U = PS3 in 2007 aka a disaster area.

Please don't quote this post, I may have to edit the figures out later.

 

[Baki]

So it bombed significantly worse in Europe than Japan or the US. Wow.

 

[thestopsign]

While the Wii U isn't Vita levels bad, it might as well be for Nintendo.

 

[pieatorium]

Japan I wouldn't call a bomb, it's going to be bad from here on out though. US were dissapointing in Dec but had a pretty decent Nov. EU seems to be a straight up terrible though.

 

[thehypocrite]

The 12GB unit would be plenty profitable at ¥19,990. It's basically twigs and cardboard being held together by duct tape. It was just deemed that the EU market was the most important one to get a cheap unit into as it has the most sales potential for Sony.

Also, this is probably not the final redesign for the PS3, there will probably be one final revision that will make it super compact once the CPU and GPU are integrated onto a single package at 22nm. At 32nm a redesign of Cell/RSX probably wasn't worth it, but it would be for 22nm as the savings would be significant enough to warrant it.

You're right, Sony is giving priority to the European market as it has become their strongest region. I think once they announce the PS4, they'll make it available in other regions to boost sales.

 

[Hazelhurst]

Nintendo owns Japan.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

This sounds about right. So is there 1 no country where Wii U is actually doing well in Europe?

Well is a relative term. It's doing better in a couple of countries than the rest of the continent, but in terms of launch aligned sales compared to PS3, 360 and Wii launch it is doing awfully, everywhere. The only launch it has managed to stay competitive with is Vita, and that launched in Feb.

 

[evangd007]

My post from another thread:

The thing is unlike wii u, Nextbox/ps4 will not be dedicated gaming devices and they don't be advertised as such either. The same effect iPhone/iPad had on dedicated mobile devices(mp3 players, dedicated gaming devices, cameras ect.) is the same effect that nextbox(and hopefully ps4) will have on the living room. Xbox live and Sony entertainment network is going to have a lot of people canceling their time Warner subscriptions. Time Warner, dish network, Comcast,ect. will all be in trouble when next gen hits.

I sincerely hope that neither Microsoft nor Sony bet heavily on services being a primary selling point for their next generation consoles. Smart TVs are coming down in price quickly and already offer good enough services for most users. Hell, the difference between a Smart TV and a dumb TV is as low as $50 for some models. Not to mention that Japan doesn't care a lick about services.

 

[teh_pwn]

So wait til Spaceworld? Is that still a thing?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Please don't quote this post, I may have to edit the figures out later.

Your figures are only attributing about 200k in channel though with the "to miss by 2 million" target, that's just unrealistic. When PS3 had shipped 2.5m in NA + Japan by March 2007, sellthrough was 811k Japan and 1.18m US. That meant about 500k in channel/transit on around 2m sold through for those regions. I expect Wii U will be similar, shipments as of the end of 2012 are likely already 2.5m worldwide on (your attributment of) about 2m sales. Another 1-1.5m shipped over Q1 isn't exactly out of the question, even with sales coming to a standstill in NA/JP and Europe failing to take off.

 

[Yamauchi]

Weren't Vita's weekly numbers at launch 300k-70k-50k-40k-20k or something like that?

I'm pretty sure Vita wasn't doing 18k in it's 3rd week.

EDIT:

Found a nice graph

People are saying the 'doom and gloom' is overdone. I disagree; I would even argue it is underdone. The more I think about these numbers and the more research I do on previous console launches, the more I am led to believe that the Wii U's current situation is utterly abysmal. (Edit: I am not saying that the console won't be successful -- this is Nintendo we're talking about. It just isn't doing very well right now, and I am interested to see what measures Nintendo will take to rectify the situation.)

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Well is a relative term. It's doing better in a couple of countries than the rest of the continent, but in terms of launch aligned sales compared to PS3, 360 and Wii launch it is doing awfully, everywhere. The only launch it has managed to stay competitive with is Vita, and that launched in Feb.

Launch aligned even with these nasty sales WiiU actually has a higher total than either the PS3 or 360 in America and Japan. Europe seems to be a clusterfuck, but we don't really have any numbers for the region either.

It's falling rapidly though, so it may soon enough drop lower than the 360 in America... it will have to be doing really bad persistently for quite a few more months before it drops behind the PS3 though. Sony's launch week in Japan didn't even have 100,000 units out there. WiiU outsold it by more than 4x actually.

I think Ani was right though. By March this thing while having a higher start, is soon going to be circling PS3 numbers. Which in it's first year... well they were really really bad.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Your figures are only attributing about 200k in channel though with the "to miss by 2 million" target, that's just unrealistic. When PS3 had shipped 2.5m in NA + Japan by March 2007, sellthrough was 811k Japan and 1.18m US. That meant about 500k in channel/transit on around 2m sold through for those regions. I expect Wii U will be similar, shipments as of the end of 2012 are likely already 2.5m worldwide on (your attributment of) about 2m sales. Another 1-1.5m shipped over Q1 isn't exactly out of the question, even with sales coming to a standstill in NA/JP and Europe failing to take off.

Shipped to which retailers though? Having a lot of units in the channel is acceptable for a high volume product. Wii U is not a high volume product. It's very low volume in fact. Not only that but in Europe at least Nintendo are having a difficult time with retailers since neither 3DS or Wii U has taken of in a big way and DS and Wii sales are basically done. Sony and Microsoft have much wider product portfolios outside of gaming and retailers can't really afford to alienate either, with Nintendo this is not true unless they have a hit product. It would be good going if they get retailers to take a large stock allocation in order to meet investor targets.

Again, I used the 1.4m figure as a best case scenario to reach 3.5m shipped to March, I think it will be half that and I figure there will be some strong arming and promises of improved performance which will get it up to 3m shipped (like I said in an earlier post). However, going by current sales and with no untoward action by Nintendo I think this side of 3m is more likely than the other side.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Shipped to which retailers though? Having a lot of units in the channel is acceptable for a high volume product. Wii U is not a high volume product. It's very low volume in fact. Not only that but in Europe at least Nintendo are having a difficult time with retailers since neither 3DS or Wii U has taken of in a big way and DS and Wii sales are basically done. Sony and Microsoft have much wider product portfolios outside of gaming and retailers can't really afford to alienate either, with Nintendo this is not true unless they have a hit product. I would be good going if they get retailers to take a large stock allocation in order to meet investor targets.

Again, I used the 1.4m figure as a best case scenario to reach 3.5m shipped to March, I think it will be half that and I figure there will be some strong arming and promises of improved performance which will get it up to 3m shipped (like I said in an earlier post). However, going by current sales and with no untoward action by Nintendo I think this side of 3m is more likely than the other side.

If Sony could channel stuff 3.5m PS3s by March 2007, I don't see much reason why Nintendo couldn't manage that (or more) in the same timeframe, particularly since Wii U is tracking ahead for worldwide sellthrough. 20%+ for stock/channel/transit over sellthrough isn't at all unusual, and channel stuffing above that isn't usnual for any of these 3 companies either. 3DS has very much been a "hit product" too, particularly in Japan where it's essentially the only relevant gaming hardware.

Wii U's achillies heel is definitely Europe, but it had a decent launch everywhere else. PS3 was essentially the inverse.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I imagine they had ~.5M in the channel heading into January, for about 2.5M shipped. If the sell through is more ~1.9M then there's about .6M in the channel. They'd still miss their forecast by 1-1.5M by my guestimate though. The only reason Sony managed to ship another 1.8M units in CY07Q1 was the European launch.

Please don't quote this post, I may have to edit the figures out later.

Subtle EU estimate...

EU Bomba.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I imagine they had ~.5M in the channel heading into January, for about 2.5M shipped. They'd still miss their forecast by 1-1.5M by my guestimate though.

I think that's more than reasonable. At this point missing targets by only 1m would be a dream scenario for Iwata.


edit:

The only reason Sony managed to ship another 1.8M units in CY07Q1 was the European launch.

Yes, and Europe got 1m of that.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think that's more than reasonable. At this point missing targets by only 1m would be a dream scenario for Iwata.

That's pretty much best case scenario. I can see them realistically missing by up to 2M as well if these next 3 months are particularly slow; NPD Jan will give a better picture.

Yes, and Europe got 1m of that.

I was trying to find the number. So it was 1M? Ergo, only 800K was to refill the US and Japanese channels through to March 31st?

If it sells around PS3 levels (which it seems to be heading towards), then a 3.5M shipped through March is relatively plausible. And relatively awful.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

If Sony could channel stuff 3.5m PS3s by March 2007, I don't see much reason why Nintendo couldn't manage that (or more) in the same timeframe, particularly since Wii U is tracking ahead for worldwide sellthrough. 20%+ for stock/channel/transit over sellthrough isn't at all unusual, and channel stuffing above that isn't usnual for any of these 3 companies either. 3DS has very much been a "hit product" too, particularly in Japan where it's essentially the only relevant gaming hardware.

Wii U's achillies heel is definitely Europe, but it had a decent launch everywhere else. PS3 was essentially the inverse.

Sony had the brand power and product portfolio necessary to force retailers to buy that many PS3s. Buy our PS3s or you won't get our latest TVs, laptops or PS2s. Nintendo don't have that kind of leverage any more.

Like I said earlier, I think 3m shipped by the end of March is a good estimate and if Nintendo play hardball then up to 3.5m, which would still be 2m under their original target.

 

[tyranid5]

The PSP is still trying to compete for handheld of the year. Sony just stoped producing the PS2, they kinda need todo the same for the vita if they want to give any life to the system. Among many other things also, but if a portable system isn't popular in japan, it's not going to do much better else where.

 

[Nekki]

There will be serious alarm in Nintendo if they have another year of loses.

At this point it would take 3DS to carry all the weight by itself and, while it's been selling good, I don't see it happening.

 

[Cipherr]

Oh yeah, we are definitely gonna see some Vita >> WiiU weeks. This thing has bricked already, and it didn't take long. Another console gen where they will have to try and live solely off of their first party output and moneyhatted/charity releases from 3rd parties.

No excuses, they been doing this shit since the N64, they have had time, and major changes in management/CEO's over that period, if they still can't get it right, then they deserve to Atari themselves out of the console market.

They know how to run a handheld, but they are lost in the woods for consoles it seems.

 

[BD1]

Nevermind. Misread that.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

That's pretty much best case scenario. I can see them realistically missing by up to 2M as well if these next 3 months are particularly slow; NPD Jan will give a better picture.
I was trying to find the number. So it was 1M? Ergo, only 800K was to refill the US and Japanese channels through to March 31st?

If it sells around PS3 levels (which it seems to be heading towards), then a 3.5M shipped through March is relatively plausible. And relatively awful.

I pretty much agree with everything. 2.5m shipped for 2012 seems likely based on known sellthrough (about 2m) and somewhere between 1-1.5m for Q1 seems reasonable for a total of 1.5-2 below projections. And yeah, that's terrible. We're nearing the time for price cuts, Ambassador Programs and moneyhats.

Sony had the brand power and product portfolio necessary to force retailers to buy that many PS3s. Buy our PS3s or you won't get our latest TVs, laptops or PS2s. Nintendo don't have that kind of leverage any more.

Like I said earlier, I think 3m shipped by the end of March is a good estimate and if Nintendo play hardball then up to 3.5m, which would still be 2m under their original target.

Even in 2006, it'd been years since Sony introduced a hit product despite their wide diversification. You're attributing a lot of brand strength to a company that had precious little even then.

3m sounds about as likely as 4.5m at this point. Both strike me as more worst/best case scenarios if we're at ~2m sold through for 2012, and a "good estimate" would come up somewhere in the middle. In any case we'll have a clearer picture in 2 weeks when Nintendo releases their Q3 results.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The Wii U problem is going to remain software until software fixes it and they have to pray they are not in such a deep hole by that point that they can't recover.

They had to bring their A-game and they barely brought their D-game (the console did not physically explode upon starting up).

 

[Cipherr]

The Wii U problem is going to remain software until software fixes it and they have to pray they are not in such a deep hole by that point that they can't recover.

I honestly feel like the landscape is different these days. That if you don't start properly, studios will abandon all plans to support your hardware right out the gate and leave you like the Vita is; At deaths door. Were it not for the way that the 3DS has reversed its fortunes over the span of roughly 16 or so months, I would be insisting that the WiiU had zero chance at even mild relevance across the entire gen.

I still think the odds are low, but the way the 3DS clawed back, and the fact that they do have a 1 year head start on the 720 and PS4 leaves a microscopic opening for them to bring this thing from Wonderswan levels to Gamecube levels by the end of the gen.

 

[Dalthien]

I still think the odds are low, but the way the 3DS clawed back, and the fact that they do have a 1 year head start on the 720 and PS4 leaves a microscopic opening for them to bring this thing from Wonderswan levels to Gamecube levels by the end of the gen.

So the WiiU now only has a "microscopic" chance of selling as well as the Gamecube. Good god, people...

 

[Kazerei]

With the upcoming lineup it's looking likely that it will slip below the Vita by some point in February.

Oh yeah, we are definitely gonna see some Vita >> WiiU weeks.

So you guys are seriously predicting this? I can see Vita surpassing Wii U the week that Soul Sacrifice is released. But otherwise, when both systems have nothing noteworthy being released, at least the Wii U's launch titles have a bit of legs to carry it.

I still think the odds are low, but the way the 3DS clawed back, and the fact that they do have a 1 year head start on the 720 and PS4 leaves a microscopic opening for them to bring this thing from Wonderswan levels to Gamecube levels by the end of the gen.

Cut the hyperbole, it's nowhere near Wonderswan levels. Even the Vita has already surpassed its LTD.

 

[BlackJace]

Oh yeah, we are definitely gonna see some Vita >> WiiU weeks. This thing has bricked already, and it didn't take long. Another console gen where they will have to try and live solely off of their first party output and moneyhatted/charity releases from 3rd parties.

No excuses, they been doing this shit since the N64, they have had time, and major changes in management/CEO's over that period, if they still can't get it right, then they deserve to Atari themselves out of the console market.

They know how to run a handheld, but they are lost in the woods for consoles it seems.

Doesn't Microsoft moneyhat a huge portion of their third party stuff as well?

 

[pieatorium]

Doesn't Microsoft moneyhat a huge portion of their third party stuff as well?

Not really more than anyone else I don't think. Well at the start of this gen the blew alot of money on some Japanese exclusives but since then they calmed down.

There is so little annouced third party games for the WiiU tha one could argue the 2 Platinum projects Nintendo are paying for amounts to money hatting alot of their third party support.

 

[crinale]

Doesn't Microsoft moneyhat a huge portion of their third party stuff as well?

MS did and that got Xbox360 to be quite relevant platform even in Japan, till end of 2008. IIRC from Tales of Vesperia to Last Remnant, it had beaten PS3 sales for around couple of weeks in Japanese market.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

The Wii U problem is going to remain software until software fixes it and they have to pray they are not in such a deep hole by that point that they can't recover.

They had to bring their A-game and they barely brought their D-game (the console did not physically explode upon starting up).

It's not too late to fix it it seems but it's going to require a top shelf defibrillator. What really worries me is if the half-hearted launch efforts already took a jolt.

Basically if there's a plan in the wings it better be a doozy.

 

[BlackJace]

Not really more than anyone else I don't think. Well at the start of this gen the blew alot of money on some Japanese exclusives but since then they calmed down.

There is so little annouced third party games for the WiiU tha one could argue the 2 Platinum projects Nintendo are paying for amounts to money hatting alot of their third party support.

Bayonetta 2 is a special case I think. Reviving something is a bit different than moneyhatting. I see what you mean though.

MS did and that got Xbox360 to be quite relevant platform even in Japan, till end of 2008. IIRC from Tales of Vesperia to Last Remnant, it had beaten PS3 sales for around couple of weeks in Japanese market.

Interesting. I did enjoy Blue Dragon a lot. It seemed like MS gave a shit about Japan early in the gen.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I think Sony is going to discontinue psp this year. Vita is getting a price drop in a couple months(after their fiscal thing right?) and I also think there will a newer model with a smaller and cheaper lcd screen. I think we will also see a umd reader. Vita is like 23,543 yen(264$?) in Japan right now. I think a price drop to 17,734(200$) and a theoretical LCD vita would be 14,222(160$?). If Sony can doesn't come out with a LCD model, they will probably just drop the current model price to 15,960(180$?). 3ds is obviously Japan's main console but that doesn't mean that Sony can't carve out a sizeable niche for themselves.


As for Wii u,I think it'll be fine. It'll definitely be selling borderline vita numbers for a while(until the games come out) and when the games do come out(Mario kart,3d Mario, smash ect.) the sales are going to be fucking ridiculous. Iwata should be worried about keeping his job though.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I feel like discontinuing PSP would simply serve to increase 3DS sales and software support...

 

[pieatorium]

Bayonetta 2 is a special case I think. Reviving something is a bit different than moneyhatting. I see what you mean though.

Yes and no, If it wasn't Bayo I think they would have been looking for some other game to fill its role in the annouced lineup. The hardcore IP with a vocal fanbase even if not a large fanbase.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

One problem is that maybe people would be willing to pick up some of the software (that is the equivalent of $60 or more when it is and has been much cheaper on other systems) if a second wave of software forced launch software prices down.

But there's no second wave of software, so launch software isn't getting cheaper.

 

[L Thammy]

I overheard somebody consoling their friend that Monster Hunter would save Vita on my commute today. You guys aren't doing your jobs!

Anyway, dunno if anybody's interested in how Soul Sacrifice will do and its effect on the Vita, but here's some data on similar games.

(Everything from Garaph.)



PSP 8/31/2006 Valhalla Knights 64,506
PSP 5/29/2008 Valhalla Knights 2 89,004
PSP 6/25/2009 Valhalla Knights 2: Battle Stance 33,271
Wii 10/8/2009 Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga 11,613

PSP 7/31/2008 Phantasy Star Portable 633,954
PSP 10/8/2009 Phantasy Star Portable PSP the Best 40,488
PSP 12/3/2009 Phantasy Star Portable 2 590,527
PSP 8/26/2010 Phantasy Star Portable 2 (PSP The Best) 15,274
PSP 2/24/2011 Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity 373,309

DS 10/22/2009 Element Hunter 11,635

DS 12/3/2009 Monster Busters 61,009
DS 1/20/2011 Monster Busters Powered 47,648

PSP 2/4/2010 God Eater 617,828
PSP 10/28/2010 GOD EATER BURST 436,158
PSP 9/15/2011 God Eater: Burst (PSP the Best) 3,602

PSP 10/14/2010 Lord of Arcana 142,388
PSP 12/17/2011 Lord of Apocalypse 17,910
PSV 12/17/2011 Lord of Apocalypse 29,111

Wii 6/23/2011 Earth Seeker 4,327

PSP 8/4/2011 Toriko: Gourmet Survival 138,838
PSP 7/5/2012 Toriko: Gourmet Survival! 2 74,862



Phantasy Star Portable is the largest LTD here, though God Eater is the largest true MH clone.

What I find interesting is that the sequels here have almost universally landed below their predecessor. Only Valhalla Knights 2 increased from its predecessor, but the original was released before Monster Hunter exploded (MHP2). The second game had Monster Hunter style boxart.

It may be that audiences are interested in the idea of a high-quality Monster Hunter alternative but lose interest without the huge MH playerbase. Soul Sacrifice may not be able to generate prolonged interest in the Vita.

Famitsu's reader poll showed Soul Sacrifice above God Eater 2. Even if God Eater 2 drops as much as Burst did and Soul Sacrifice sold the same amount, it would still be the best-selling Vita title. Though, I would expect God Eater to have far more mainstream appeal.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I feel like discontinuing PSP would simply serve to increase 3DS sales and software support...

With a 14,222 yen vita and a umd reader, how would it increase 3ds sales? You can't play psp games on 3ds.

 

[metalslimer]

With a 14,222 yen vita and a umd reader, how would it increase 3ds sales? You can't play psp games on 3ds.

So you expect Sony to drop the failing Vita that at best can become an extremely niche platform and drop the price below the 3DS? Also you expect a UMD reader with it. Might as well go all the way and say if Sony drops the Vita price to 6000 yen with 2 free games and bc with every PSP game they will be fine.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

With a 14,222 yen vita and a umd reader, how would it increase 3ds sales? You can't play psp games on 3ds.

Also unicorns.

It will come with unicorns.

 

[ohlawd]

Also unicorns.

It will come with unicorns.

Also comes with a complementary saddle so you can ride your new unicorn comfortably

 

[Somnid]

With a 14,222 yen vita and a umd reader, how would it increase 3ds sales? You can't play psp games on 3ds.

Once PSP is gone so is support, those devs are going to move to healthy platforms. Vita has nothing to do with it because nobody is going to buy a Vita to play games for an obsoleted system.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Also comes with a complementary saddle so you can ride your new unicorn comfortably

I'd buy it just for the saddle.

 

[ohlawd]

I'd buy it just for the saddle.

You bet.

The saddle is backwards compatible with horses.

Double the value

 

[StreetsAhead]

You bet.

The saddle is backwards compatible with horses.

Double the value

How about people?