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[airmangataosenai]

I think that's just a reply to those that are subtly comparing the two situations.

If anything I'd say that it's a comparison which hurts the Wii U's case more than it helps. The Vita has failed due to a lack of that sort of system selling software to date. The Wii U has that sort of software already and yet it still is bombing.

 

[Aquamarine]

If anything I'd say that it's a comparison which hurts the Wii U's case more than it helps. The Vita has failed due to a lack of that sort of system selling software to date. The Wii U has that sort of software already and yet it still is bombing.

This is Japan. We already had a NSMB game release on Japan's favorite console a few months ago. It's because of NSMB 2 that NSMB U isn't the "must have" title it should be.

 

[electroplankton]

If anything I'd say that it's a comparison which hurts the Wii U's case more than it helps. The Vita has failed due to a lack of that sort of system selling software to date. The Wii U has that sort of software already and yet it still is bombing.

Vita has also one of the best launch line-up ever, with about 20 Japanese titles from every Japanese company, of different brands. It had a much better line-up than PSP.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I am expecting an emergency Nintendo Direct sometime soon.

 

[Chris1964]

There will be serious alarm in Nintendo if they have another year of loses.

 

[guek]

I am expecting an emergency Nintendo Direct sometime soon.

Hey SA. Have you heard anything along the grapevine at all?

 

[Oersted]

You already know the what the launch games are for the PS4?
Why would the WiiU be selling better than the PS3/PS4? Which games has Nintendo announced for that time period? (although it's just 5k)
Why is the PS4 going to perform worse than the PS3 has been doing? You'll have to look at different things like launch games and price, do you really think Sony is that stupid to pull another 599$?
If the rumors of a fall 2013 release for the PS4 are true then those PS4 numbers are HORRIBLE, it's impossible for them to accomplish this.
Everything is performing worse this week in comparison with last one, I expect things to pick up again next week. I hope Nintendo performs better on their home console department.

I think he could tell the truth. PS2 was the cheap DVD player, PS3 the cheap BluRay one. So what will be the selling point for PS4? Better graphics alone never ever helped.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I think he could tell the truth. PS2 was the cheap DVD player, PS3 the cheap BluRay one. So what will be the selling point for PS4? Better graphics alone never ever helped.

Affordable pricing and third party support?

 

[Majmun]

So what will be the selling point for PS4?

Games and support.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

If anything I'd say that it's a comparison which hurts the Wii U's case more than it helps. The Vita has failed due to a lack of that sort of system selling software to date. The Wii U has that sort of software already and yet it still is bombing.

You say that as if hardware sales are comparable between the two. They're not.

Wii U might be fucked, but it's not "Vita fucked" or even really on the road to "Vita fucked". The problem with the comparison is the false equivalency some keep pushing with it.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I think he could tell the truth. PS2 was the cheap DVD player, PS3 the cheap BluRay one. So what will be the selling point for PS4? Better graphics alone never ever helped.

My post from another thread:

The thing is unlike wii u, Nextbox/ps4 will not be dedicated gaming devices and they don't be advertised as such either. The same effect iPhone/iPad had on dedicated mobile devices(mp3 players, dedicated gaming devices, cameras ect.) is the same effect that nextbox(and hopefully ps4) will have on the living room. Xbox live and Sony entertainment network is going to have a lot of people canceling their time Warner subscriptions. Time Warner, dish network, Comcast,ect. will all be in trouble when next gen hits.

 

[electroplankton]

There will be serious alarm in Nintendo if they have another year of loses.

For example?

 

[SgtCobra]

I think he could tell the truth. PS2 was the cheap DVD player, PS3 the cheap BluRay one. So what will be the selling point for PS4? Better graphics alone never ever helped.

Affordable pricing and third party support?

This, a console doesn't per se need a "selling point gimmick" to sell, look at the Wii U now, it's all about the games, the SNES and Genesis didn't have any selling points besides "better graphics and exclusives"
Atleast the Wii implemented their motion controls perfectly with their first party games, which caused their games and console to sell millions.
Also the PS3 became to sell well after the pricedrop and exclusives, and not only because it was a cheap Blu-Ray player.

I only know a hand full of people in my entire life who bought a PS console for the media capabilities.

 

[michaelius]

That metric for Wii U software "it will outsell every Vita game" puts the bar very low, doesn't it?

Let's get the party started.

Let's have some fun comparing software - how did Wii U titles apart from Mon Hun, Mario and Nintendo Land sold ?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Let's have some fun comparing software - how did Wii U titles apart from Mon Hun, Mario and Nintendo Land sold ?

Oh yay, we're at the "doesn't count" argument.

 

[airmangataosenai]

You say that as if hardware sales are comparable between the two. They're not.

Wii U might be fucked, but it's not "Vita fucked" or even really on the road to "Vita fucked". The problem with the comparison is the false equivalency some keep pushing with it.

With the upcoming lineup it's looking likely that it will slip below the Vita by some point in February. Wii U will get a boost from Dragon Quest in March however, and Soul Sacrifice for Vita is an unknown quantity which could outright bomb for all we know. Either way I doubt any of the games on the immediate horizon will correct the paths that either platform is currently on.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

With the upcoming lineup it's looking likely that it will slip below the Vita by some point in February. Wii U will get a boost from Dragon Quest in March however, and Soul Sacrifice for Vita is an unknown quantity which could outright bomb for all we know. Either way I doubt any of the games on the immediate horizon will correct the paths that either platform is currently on.

I wouldn't say that's likely, the trajectories for both are pretty dire but don't really look like they'll be crossing. Wii U has a couple decent sellers for Q1 (Game & Wario, DQX, Wii Fit U) and not much else while Vita has a deluge of ports and niche efforts, but no real system drivers.

 

[Baconsammy]

Games and support.

And services. Lots of them.

 

[Oersted]

Affordable pricing and third party support?

Games and support.

To both of you. Of course, but at start, PS360 will have countless more games, apps, better pricing etc.

My post from another thread:

Outside USA, these services are almost everywhere not available.


To make it clear: I don´t say they these consoles will be underwhelming. I just don´t see the selling point for the masses.

 

[test_account]

Sony fanbase is pretty vocal in here ( look at last week´s thread) + home console bias. NeoGAF is still mainly a american forum. Not a problem, but you have to expect certain things in such territories. That said, Nintendo has to react. Fast. They shouldn´t wait anymore. Just clearly stating what we already know (Zelda U, Mario U, Mario Kart U etc) would be a start.

I dont think it is more vocal than the Nintendo fanbase though. Looking at the last year sales performance of Sony systems, there havnt been anything too outstanding, so i'm actually pretty sure that the Nintendo fanbase have been more vocal in these threads lately. Makes sense with the great 3DS performance last year though.

I think he could tell the truth. PS2 was the cheap DVD player, PS3 the cheap BluRay one. So what will be the selling point for PS4? Better graphics alone never ever helped.

Better graphics goes hand in hand with the games however (you cant have better graphics without games regarding consoles). It is the games that sells the hardware, and having better graphics could make the games more interesting for the consumers. Just having good graphics isnt enough of course, but it is several of times a selling point.

Let's have some fun comparing software - how did Wii U titles apart from Mon Hun, Mario and Nintendo Land sold ?

I think we only have numbers for 1st week of ZombieU (11.226) and Warriors Orochi 3: Hyper (6.184). Both Famitsu numbers.

 

[big youth]

My prediction of how Wii U would perform in Japan was completely off..and I'm still not sure why. the tablet controller is geared towards Japan, Mario and Nintendo Land at launch, Dragon Quest X beta included...what else could have Nintendo done?

It seems a bit ridiculous to see so many people demanding more games, better games from Nintendo. The system just came out and we already have 2 games that scored great critically and are well received by most who have played them. One of them has Mario in the title and the other includes 12 Nintendo IPs. Is the problem 3rd party games? It might be in the future but Wii U actually had some decent 3rd party games at launch. Bad advertising? I'm at a loss.

 

[Laguna]

Games and support.

Since we are talking about "selling points". Can you make an educated guess with what established franchises PS4 can realistically launch with? It´s early but I doubt it will launch with a game that can outsell either NSMBU,Nintendoland or MHTriHD.

 

[Sandfox]

Since we are talking about "selling points". Can you make an educated guess with what established franchises PS4 can realistically launch with? It´s early but I doubt they will launch with a games that can outsell either NSMBU,Nintendoland or MHTriHD.

Ridge Racer lol

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

To both of you. Of course, but at start, PS360 will have countless more games, apps, better pricing etc.




Outside USA, these services are almost everywhere not available.


To make it clear: I don´t say they these consoles will be underwhelming. I just don´t see the selling oint for the masses.

SEN isn't good in Japan? Isn't Sony a Japanese company?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Since we are talking about "selling points". Can you make an educated guess with what established franchises PS4 can realistically launch with? It´s early but I doubt it will launch with a game that can outsell either NSMBU,Nintendoland or MHTriHD.

At launch, you are probably right, but you can expect lots of vaporware and announced games to be released in 2016, something Wii U lacks.

 

[Baki]

How do people think the PS4 will perform like with a pricetag of 39,980 yen? Providing the PS4 lands the 'standard' console franchises it had this generation? The PS3 will crawl to potentially 10M LTD (if not 9M) - so it's not exactly the 'hottest' product to succeed?

With regards to this week, wow! Serious red flags for Nintendo. A complete lackluster launch worldwide rivalling the GameCube. I guess Nintendo only has it's self to blame and I don't necessarily blame the software this time. They launched with good titles such as MH3U, NSMBU and Nintendo Land looked quite promising. I think the price and actual appeal of the hardware is to blame. It's like they haven't understood the mistakes of the Wii and what made it successful.

 

[Laguna]

At launch, you are probably right, but you can expect lots of vaporware and announced games to be released in 2016, something Wii U lacks.

Final Fantasy Versus 13, The Last Guardian, Final Fantasy X HD

 

[Oersted]

This, a console doesn't per se need a "selling point gimmick" to sell, look at the Wii U now, it's all about the games, the SNES and Genesis didn't have any selling points besides "better graphics and exclusives"

Whole different situation. There haven´t been plattforms which everyone has, with games you can get for free.

Also the PS3 became to sell well after the pricedrop and exclusives, and not only because it was a cheap Blu-Ray player.

I only know a hand full of people in my entire life who bought a PS console for the media capabilities.

Factually, the cheap bluray player was a selling point. Your anecdotal evidence is just some additional proof

 

[StreetsAhead]

I am expecting an emergency Nintendo Direct sometime soon.

In my head I imagine Iwata on a conference call with Monolith, EAD Tokyo, and Retro deciding who's game gets to be the 'ace up the sleeve'.

There will be serious alarm in Nintendo if they have another year of loses.

If they weren't profitable Q3 I think the panic will begin. Iwata may have to reduce his salary to that of a regular manager if he wants to keep his position if investors start demanding answers.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

Final Fantasy Versus 13, The Last Guardian, Final Fantasy X HD

In pretty sure final fantasy x hd is actually coming out. The others I'm not so sure about.

 

[Baki]

The problem for the WiiU is that they're stuck with the game pad.

Its cost will always be a factor and with the market rejecting it (unlike the waggle on the Wii)' Nintendo is left trying to sell a low end product, when compared to upcoming consoles, with a peripheral that is not a value add in the minds of the consumer.

They might be able to turn things around in Japan but WW, this is a write down waiting to happen.

The casuals didn't flock to the Wii because it had Mario kart. The came because they could controls the kart with waggle.

Nice to see someone with a similar perspective. Here, have an internet high five.

Unrelated, the Vita needs a MH type miracle or to become an awesome iPhone type convergence device. Basically, a rock and a hard place right now. lol

Final Fantasy Versus 13, The Last Guardian, Final Fantasy X HD

Scrap the name Versus XIII and up port it to the PS4 as Final Fantasy XV (as long as they use high res assets, add some additional filters and some AA. No one will care that much if launch software looks like super awesome PS3 software).

 

[NeonZ]

My prediction of how Wii U would perform in Japan was completely off..and I'm still not sure why. the tablet controller is geared towards Japan, Mario and Nintendo Land at launch, Dragon Quest X beta included...what else could have Nintendo done?

It seems a bit ridiculous to see so many people demanding more games, better games from Nintendo. The system just came out and we already have 2 games that scored great critically and are well received by most who have played them. One of them has Mario in the title and the other includes 12 Nintendo IPs. Is the problem 3rd party games? It might be in the future but Wii U actually had some decent 3rd party games at launch. Bad advertising? I'm at a loss.

People don't buy systems at launch just for the initial line up. Doesn't matter how good it is, it'll never compare to entire catalogs of previous consoles. They buy it for two things - the "new" factor that the new console adds and the "future". Promises and potential of the system. The Wii U's "unique" feature has had a fairly weak reaction overall, it certainly didn't catch the mainstream's attention. It also isn't a graphical powerhouse, so it also loses the second type of audience. Now, graphics are never a determinant factor, but considering how the Wii U right now has pretty much nothing, it'd still be something. Also, the system has no new big games in the horizon at all (No, a port of a Wii game won't change the system's fortunes even in Japan, and Pikmin will never amount to much), so, the sales ended up falling quickly.

I don't think either NSMBU or Nintendo Land were ideal software for the launch of a new system. NSMBU really doesn't showcase the Wii U's unique points either graphically or gameplay-wise. Even if they wanted to go with a 2d Mario, it should have been something that immediately stood out from the previous NSMB games even to the most casual viewer, not something that needs to be directly compared to them to point out improvements in resolution and background art.

Nintendo Land can work as a kind of showcase of the Pad, I guess, but it pretty clearly lacks the instant appeal of Wii Sports to reach audiences beyond Nintendo fans. People who are going to buy a Wii U likely will get one of the two titles above anyway, but I don't think they work well to convince people to get a Wii U in the first place.

 

[test_account]

How do people think the PS4 will perform like with a pricetag of 39,980 yen? Providing the PS4 lands the 'standard' console franchises it had this generation? The PS3 will crawl to potentially 10M LTD (if not 9M) - so it's not exactly the 'hottest' product to succeed?

PS3 will actually pass 9 million units sold in a few weeks. 10 million is pretty much a lock in my opinion.

 

[SgtCobra]

Factually, the cheap bluray player was a selling point. Your anecdotal evidence is just some additional proof

Oh well if we are going that way then we can state that recharcheable controllers are a selling point too? And at that time the PS3 didn't make as much noise as the 360, maybe we can count that as a selling point too? Because they also are.
We are talking about selling points that do matter significantly for the sales of a console in the long term, Blu-Ray didn't do much, but you're totally right, it IS a selling point.

EDIT: vv Valid points, fall 2013/spring 2014 is gonna be one hell of a time for sure..

 

[vicissitudes]

You already know the what the launch games are for the PS4?

No, but what games could they possibly have? For the PS3 they had Resistance, and for the Vita they had Uncharted. Both are western games that barely made a blip on the sales charts. Most of the big franchises for Japan have moved to handhelds. Sony certainty doesn't have any big first-party sellers for Japan anymore and there's almost no chance GT6 will be a launch title. FF will not show up for at least a few years, if at all. Can you even think of a 3rd-party title that sold 100k+ first week alongside a console launch, ever? Or do people here not remember waiting months for Virtua Fighter 5, which sold a paltry 48k first week, the best performing PS3 game at the time by far?

Why would the WiiU be selling better than the PS3/PS4? Which games has Nintendo announced for that time period? (although it's just 5k)
Why is the PS4 going to perform worse than the PS3 has been doing? You'll have to look at different things like launch games and price, do you really think Sony is that stupid to pull another 599$?

I'm throwing out guesses, but the PS3 has been declining YOY for a couple of years now, and with no big software on the horizon (except vaporware aka Versus), a more saturated market, and more competition with the PS4, that will only continue. As for why the PS4 will sell less than the PS3 / WiiU, just look at the previous two Sony game systems. The PS2 continued to outsell the PS3 for at least a year after it came out, and here in 2013 we still have the PSP outselling the Vita. Again, the PS4 will likely have little compelling software at launch, just like the PS3 and Vita did. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

If the rumors of a fall 2013 release for the PS4 are true then those PS4 numbers are HORRIBLE, it's impossible for them to accomplish this.

If I were to tell people back in 2011 that the PSP successor would be struggling to sell 10k or back in 2009 that the Wii successor would be selling 20k barely a month after launch, I probably would have gotten similar comments. I hope I'm wrong, because I would love to see the PS4 do well in Japan. I'm simply looking at past trends and trying to draw reasonable conclusions.

 

[Baki]

PS3 will actually pass 9 million units sold in a few weeks. 10 million is pretty much a lock in my opinion.

10 Million it is then! haha

I still don't understand why they didn't introduce the 12GB model in Japan. They could've really used the momentum a low-end priced model could have introduced!

 

[test_account]

I'm throwing out guesses, but the PS3 has been declining YOY for a couple of years now, and with no big software on the horizon (except vaporware aka Versus), a more saturated market, and more competition with the PS4, that will only continue.

While true, the PS3 YOY decline has not really been that big, relatively speaking:

2009 = 1.764.531
2010 = 1.586.122
2011 = 1.548.895
2012 = 1.223.699

I expect a decline in 2013 as well, but i think it could do around a million. Depends on how long Sony keep the 25k yen price. I'm not sure what the WiiU will sell in comparison though.

10 Million it is then! haha

I still don't understand why they didn't introduce the 12GB model in Japan. They could've really used the momentum a low-end priced model could have introduced!

Yeah, i also wonder that. They didnt release the 12GB model in the US either.

 

[vicissitudes]

While true, the PS3 YOY decline has not really been that big, relatively speaking:

2009 = 1.764.531
2010 = 1.586.122
2011 = 1.548.895
2012 = 1.223.699

I expect a decline in 2013 as well, but i think it could do around a million. Depends on how long Sony keep the 25k yen price. I'm not sure what the WiiU will sell in comparison though.

Right, which is why I said around 15k for the PS3 next year week 2. It might do anywhere from 15-20k. The WiiU will really depend on:

1. Does it get a pricecut next holiday season?
2. How fast can Nintendo get out Smash / Mario Kart?

 

[AzaK]

Oh of course. I don't think it's intentionally possible, though I do think we might see a completely botched first half of 2013 and a desperate attempt to remedy the situation in the latter half.

Well 18 months out they thought it'd be sweet, then I think reality started to set in. EA had a tanty and took their games away. All the major AAA devs saw the specs and became very flaccid. Nintendo heard about the specs of Orbis and Durango and decided to hold everything back until close to their launch.

This left Funky Barn to lead the Wii U into battle.

 

[thehypocrite]

10 Million it is then! haha

I still don't understand why they didn't introduce the 12GB model in Japan. They could've really used the momentum a low-end priced model could have introduced!

Cause they are aiming for profit, not market share.

 

[Instro]

Wow everything took a dump this week, WiiU shockingly low too. Looks like it really is in trouble in every region now.

 

[Majmun]

Since we are talking about "selling points". Can you make an educated guess with what established franchises PS4 can realistically launch with? It´s early but I doubt it will launch with a game that can outsell either NSMBU,Nintendoland or MHTriHD.

Don't know about launch. Don't think Sony will have anything like NSMB or MH* in their arsenal. But I'm sure they're going to announce a lot of 3rd party games that wil excite gamers.

Launch the Ps3 with an affordable price, a musou game, a disgaea sort of game, or other anime games(music/rpg/waifusim). Maybe a Yakuza spinoff. Couple it with some big 3rd party announcements. Keep the games coming and I see it doing better than the WiiU, to be honest.

*MH will never be exclusive. An iteration of the franchise could also end up on PS4.

 

[metalslimer]

Wow everything took a dump this week, WiiU shockingly low too. Looks like it really is in trouble in every region now.

Well the US NPD was bad, but wait till it sells below 150k in January.

Let's see how close at software sales the 2 systems will be at first 3 months of 2013 since the situation is so much different. I have a suspicion things won't be rosy for Nintendo.

Surely Wii Fit will prevent that situation from looking even remotely similar?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Well the US NPD was bad, but wait till it sells below 150k in January.

It's crazy to think it may not be quite over 2M sold WW (890,000 US, 715,000 JP = 1.605M, + EU/Other)

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Cause they are aiming for profit, not market share.

The 12GB unit would be plenty profitable at ¥19,990. It's basically twigs and cardboard being held together by duct tape. It was just deemed that the EU market was the most important one to get a cheap unit into as it has the most sales potential for Sony.

Also, this is probably not the final redesign for the PS3, there will probably be one final revision that will make it super compact once the CPU and GPU are integrated onto a single package at 22nm. At 32nm a redesign of Cell/RSX probably wasn't worth it, but it would be for 22nm as the savings would be significant enough to warrant it.

 

[metalslimer]

It's crazy to think it may not be quite over 2M sold WW (890,000 US, 715,000 JP = 1.605M, + EU/Other)

At first I thought Nintendo might miss the forecasts by 2 million, and now it's looking like it will be closer to 3. Combine that with the 3DS projection that is going to not be met, and I don't see how Nintendo doesn't either A) get slaughtered by investors B) announced everything they have in development in an emergency to stave them off.

 

[StreetsAhead]

At first I thought Nintendo might miss the forecasts by 2 million, and now it's looking like it will be closer to 3.

2.5 million sold by the end of March would be disastrous, indeed.

 

[Miles X]

At first I thought Nintendo might miss the forecasts by 2 million, and now it's looking like it will be closer to 3.

What?! No way. 2m sold to consumer = like at least 2.5m/3m shipped.

They'll probably do another 1m WW over next 3 months (if not more)

I expect them to miss it by 1.5 - 2m.

 

[Laguna]

Don't know about launch. Don't think Sony will have anything like NSMB or MH* in their arsenal. But I'm sure they're going to announce a lot of 3rd party games that wil excite gamers.

Launch the Ps3 with an affordable price, a musou game, a disgaea sort of game, or other anime games(music/rpg/waifusim). Maybe a Yakuza spinoff. Couple it with some big 3rd party announcements. Keep the games coming and I see it doing better than the WiiU, to be honest.

*MH will never be exclusive. An iteration of the franchise could also end up on PS4.

This sounds like PS3s 1st year only worse to be honest. One of the reasons is that Koei most likely won´t ignore PS3 when it comes to Musou games in the next 1-2 years and that the popularity isn´t as high anymore.

 

[metalslimer]

What?! No way. 2m sold to consumer = like at least 2.5m/3m shipped.

They'll probably do another 1m WW over next 3 months (if not more)

I expect them to miss it by 1.5 - 2m.

That's one very optimistic prediction. I might be underestimating how much Nintendo got in the channels though for launch. There's no way they sell 1 million worldwide in the next 3 months. I wouldn't be surprised if Wii U was below 100k in the US by March.