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Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2017 (May 15 - May 21)

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Sinobi is concerned where Capcom will put MHXX since Switch schedule is packed after summer, announcement tomorrow could mean a fall release, it will be clear tomorrow.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Sinobi is concerned where Capcom will put MHXX since Switch schedule is packed after summer, announcement tomorrow could mean a fall release, it will be clear tomorrow.

Monster Hunter September

Pokemon October

Mario November?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Nothing new about Famitsu digital sales for April, numbers for MK8D excluded? I'm still waiting for the top 30 to be posted :(
 

goldage

Banned
Isn't the ratio between preorders and overall sales on 3DS the most skewed toward the latter anyway? (Do we have any hard data on this? Considering shops stock games on own risk based on perceived demand and that's often based on preorder numbers such stats have quite an impact on eventual shipment/sales.) In comparison PS4 is a more dedicated audience where a lack of preorders directly reflects a lack of interest. So for DQXI PS4 preorders surpassing 3DS ones should be no surprise (unless somebody expects it to bomb on PS4) and won't hinder the 3DS version to outsell all others anyway.
yep and the more casual the title the more skewed it is

Sinobi is concerned where Capcom will put MHXX since Switch schedule is packed after summer, announcement tomorrow could mean a fall release, it will be clear tomorrow.
Splatoon + dq will cover july/august so september seems likely, otherwise a november release will impact the most

Mario + Rabbids
Fire Emblem Warriors
Xenoblade 2
Mario & Sonic?
these games aren't that big so their release dates don't matter much, as long as they aren't launched with anything big with 2 week gaps at least, they should all be fine

mario rabbids has the most potential to sell the most, otherwise it'd be fire emblem
 

Passose

Banned
Sinobi is concerned where Capcom will put MHXX since Switch schedule is packed after summer, announcement tomorrow could mean a fall release, it will be clear tomorrow.
June: Arms
July:Splatoon
August: that rabbid x mario thing
September: pokemon star?
october:FE Warriors
November:Xeno 2
December:Mario Odyssey
Did I miss any game?
 

goldage

Banned
June: Arms
July:Splatoon
August: that rabbid x mario thing
September: pokemon star?
october:FE Warriors
November:Xeno 2
December:Mario Odyssey
Did I miss any game?
mh

nov/dec release for pokemon stars would make more sense, it'd sell the most systems after the holidays than the rest imo
 
June: Arms
July:Splatoon
August: that rabbid x mario thing
September: pokemon star?
october:FE Warriors
November:Xeno 2
December:Mario Odyssey
Did I miss any game?

Would probably swap FE and Pokemon and Mario/Xenoblade there. Might even see Stars in November alongside Mario and Smash in October.
 

goldage

Banned
in just a few months we'll have alot of big ips released on switch

it'll be interesting how much each games sell, we'll truly see what are the best system sellers, it's the biggest reason why i want pokemon stars released this year

Would probably swap FE and Pokemon and Mario/Xenoblade there. Might even see Stars in November alongside Mario and Smash in October.
makes more sense to release pokemon stars this year and smash next year, it is the bigger brand so takes longer to transition the fan base over and we've heard nothing about a possible smash this year

but if it did come out with stars this year too...oh boy

this is looking like a 4m+ year for switch if nintendo has the stock
 
The MHXX release timing (if it gets announced tomorrow) might actually go a long way towards showing us what the Switch stock situation is like. If they don't expect to have sufficient stock until October or November for instance, I doubt we'd see this released before then. If it's releasing earlier then they likely will have confidence the stock will be better.
 
June: Arms
July:Splatoon
August: that rabbid x mario thing
September: pokemon star?
october:FE Warriors
November:Xeno 2
December:Mario Odyssey
Did I miss any game?

June: Arms
July: Splatoon 2
August: Mario x Rabbids
September: Fire Emblem Warriors/Monster Hunter XX
October: (something TBA aka Pokémon, Pikmin, or Smash)
November: Mario Odyssey (3D Mario comes out in November) and Mario and Sonic Winter Games
December: Xenoblade 2

3rd Party: Dragon Quest XI (could be Jan/Feb), Taiko (late Nov/Dec), Tales of, Skyrim, Dragon Ball Xenoverse 2, and probably more I'm forgetting about it have yet to be announced.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
The MHXX release timing (if it gets announced tomorrow) might actually go a long way towards showing us what the Switch stock situation is like. If they don't expect to have sufficient stock until October or November for instance, I doubt we'd see this released before then. If it's releasing earlier then they likely will have confidence the stock will be better.

I don't see it releasing close to Splatoon 2. September at the earliest. And I *assume* Nintendo is planning a sustained ramp up after Splatoon 2.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
June: Arms
July: Splatoon 2
August: Mario x Rabbids
September: Fire Emblem Warriors/Monster Hunter XX
October: (something TBA aka Pokémon, Pikmin, or Smash)
November: Mario Odyssey (3D Mario comes out in November) and Mario and Sonic Winter Games
December: Xenoblade 2

3rd Party: Dragon Quest XI (could be Jan/Feb), Taiko (late Nov/Dec), Tales of, Skyrim, Dragon Ball Xenoverse 2, and probably more I'm forgetting about.

Seems about right to me. I'm guessing Pokemon for October.
 

goldage

Banned
The MHXX release timing (if it gets announced tomorrow) might actually go a long way towards showing us what the Switch stock situation is like. If they don't expect to have sufficient stock until October or November for instance, I doubt we'd see this released before then. If it's releasing earlier then they likely will have confidence the stock will be better.
yup good point, release date might be tba, just to give them time to see the stock situation as it gets closer
 

Passose

Banned
June: Arms
July: Splatoon 2
August: Mario x Rabbids
September: Fire Emblem Warriors/Monster Hunter XX
October: (something TBA aka Pokémon, Pikmin, or Smash)
November: Mario Odyssey (3D Mario comes out in November) and Mario and Sonic Winter Games
December: Xenoblade 2

3rd Party: Dragon Quest XI (could be Jan/Feb), Taiko (late Nov/Dec), Tales of, Skyrim, Dragon Ball Xenoverse 2, and probably more I'm forgetting about it have yet to be announced.
I think both Mario x Rabbids and FE Warriors should be on august, those games can use the hype of Splatoon 2 to boost the sales. And Xeno 2 shouldn't be released in december though, it will be swallowed by bigger names like cod or something like that. other than that I agree with you
 
I think both Mario x Rabbids and FE Warriors should be on august, those games can use the hype of Splatoon 2 to boost the sales. And Xeno 2 shouldn't be released in december though, it will be swallowed by bigger names like cod or something like that. other than that I agree with you

...Just look at past trends. Hyrule Warriors launched in August because Nintendo needed a game there after Pikmin, Fire Emblem Warriors has no need to launch in August it'll do fine without hype from Splatoon 2. Xenoblade 2 is a classic late December release game from Nintendo. They tend to release their secondary holiday titles either the week before or the week after December 25th. It won't get drowned out by... Call of Duty in Japan. As far as we know right now the bigger names being released this holiday are Nintendo games.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Speculation for Switch Dragon Quest is that it will be out this winter alongside Asian version. Maybe it will lose CY but not FY. There is no reason for SE not to release it as soon as possible.
 

casiopao

Member
I don' think Mario and Rabbids is huge enough to occupy a single month alone though.O_O I mean, i don't see Jp fans being interested with Rabbids at all.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
I don' think Mario and Rabbids is huge enough to occupy a single month alone though.O_O I mean, i don't see Jp fans being interested with Rabbids at all.

I think Japan will still be gobbling up Splatoon 2 in August. Maybe Minecraft retail? But I don't see the need for anything too significant.
 

goldage

Banned
Speculation for Switch Dragon Quest is that it will be out this winter alongside Asian version. Maybe it will lose CY but not FY. There is no reason for SE not to release it as soon as possible.
yep i expect it to be a december release

I don' think Mario and Rabbids is huge enough to occupy a single month alone though.O_O I mean, i don't see Jp fans being interested with Rabbids at all.
it should release in december after mario odyssey, by that time fe and xenoblade will be out too

it shouldn't compete with dq since they're pretty different kinds of rpg
 

casiopao

Member
I think Japan will still be gobbling up Splatoon 2 in August. Maybe Minecraft retail? But I don't see the need for anything too significant.

The big problem with too much huge title is quite simple if u ask me lol. Their sales potential will be ruined if there is not enough Switch in the market. I think thats also the main reason why Capcom is hesitating on releasing MH launch day as there will be not enough Switch owner to buy the game lol.
 

Oregano

Member
Speculation for Switch Dragon Quest is that it will be out this winter alongside Asian version. Maybe it will lose CY but not FY. There is no reason for SE not to release it as soon as possible.

I thought the Asian version is PS4 exclusive?

Not sure why they would align it with that.

thank goodness Disgaea 5 recovered in the West.

Hey, I'm happy to be wrong on that one.

On a serious note I don't think theres any overcrowding in regards to Switch's schedule, yet.
 

goldage

Banned
The only bad thing about the Switch's lineup is that it's too good.
only because zelda and mario has been selling the system well also, otherwise the need for more games will feel far more urgent

The big problem with too much huge title is quite simple if u ask me lol. Their sales potential will be ruined if there is not enough Switch in the market. I think thats also the main reason why Capcom is hesitating on releasing MH launch day as there will be not enough Switch owner to buy the game lol.
i doubt that was the reason, the switch's launch schedule is nothing to write home about, it's selling well because zelda is overperforming and there was no way capcom knew the system would sell out due to mainly zelda
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
That Switch lineup aint really crowded imo. You cant have more than 1 major release any month?

I think the upcoming Japanese lineup looks really stacked as far as heavy hitters go, especially for a system still in its 1st year. But yea, volume wise it still has a ways to go.
 

salromano

Member
I like Gematsu but that's literally the definition of a clickbait headline.

I like duckroll, too.

Clickbait headlines are never my intention. Forgive me for failing to understand - but what is clickbait about this headline? Matsuda said those titles will be out within the next three years, and the headline reflects that.
 

casiopao

Member
In the literal sense, it is correct, but the Marvel games are also on that slide, which are logically 3+ years out given Eidos Montreal's just started.

Ah i see. Guess it is all about context there. But 3+ years, is that normal for a single AAA game?

That Switch lineup aint really crowded imo. You cant have more than 1 major release any month?

Sure u can. But if the Switch number in the wild is still quite limited, won't it be a waste that some title will end up not doing so well compared to its potential?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
That Switch lineup aint really crowded imo. You cant have more than 1 major release any month?

Most of the heavyhitters will have legs - even if a customer purchases a Switch in November the likelihood of them getting Zelda, Mario Kart, Arms, Splatoon2, Monster Hunter is high. Their will be enough competition even if you dont get 50 gaphics novels and Re-releases per month like on the Vita. And the system isnt exactly cheap either...we will see how it works out once 3rdPartys start releasing games that can actually sell.

It would be different if Nintendo could ship much more consoles starting with Splatoon 2...guess time will tell.
 
That Switch lineup aint really crowded imo. You cant have more than 1 major release any month?

I agree. I think they have done well on the higher end to pace out their line up, but 3rd parties still have plenty of room to stick in titles in between before I would call it crowded. The 3rd Party titles I mentioned above should provide some smaller sellers, but there is still room for small to mid range successes.

If Pokémon does get announced for this year, I don't think Nintendo have much of a reason to release anything else in 2017. They will have plenty of options for 2018 still between Animal Crossing, Smash, Pikmin, Mario Maker, Kirby, and potential new IPs.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
dragonquestx0q1w.png


dragonquestaddendum1ks5i.png


Ah i see. Guess it is all about context there. But 3+ years, is that normal for a single AAA game?

Yes. The average AAA Western game takes 3-4 years to develop now, with many going longer.
 

L~A

Member
Wrong translation?

In the literal sense, it is correct, but the Marvel games are also on that slide, which are logically 3+ years out given Eidos Montreal's just started.

There's that, though personally, I was making fun of how pessimistic release date predictions are when it comes to FF7R.

***

Regarding the Pokémon Stars date, still saying the same thing last time we discussed it: not seeing that one in October (let alone September). Game hasn't even been announced yet, and it's already June (I doubt it'll be announced by Wednesday).

My money is still on November, most likely simultaneous with Mario Odyssey (so last week-end before Black Friday in the US).
 

goldage

Banned
There's that, though personally, I was making fun of how pessimistic release date predictions are when it comes to FF7R.

***

Regarding the Pokémon Stars date, still saying the same thing last time we discussed it: not seeing that one in October (let alone September). Game hasn't even been announced yet, and it's already June (I doubt it'll be announced by Wednesday).

My money is still on November, most likely simultaneous with Mario Odyssey (so last week-end before Black Friday in the US).
depends what they show at e3

i think with the announcement of mh, pokemon might be held off too, it is getting pretty stacked for the types of games being released, rather than sheer quantity

still it might make it this year, for the west, if not japan

i think the west needs it this year, unlike japan, they dont have mh or dq

so you're left with splatoon/odyssey/mk8d/zelda as this year's system sellers, is this enough?
 

L~A

Member
This must be the first time every Nintendo big release for the year will be known already from E3.

Now that you mention it, you're right.

Then again, it's no wonder: Switch first year, and first months especially, are extremely important so they really needed to knock it out of the park. They have to show potential buyers they have a great line-up for the first year. Just hope they're not playing too many of their cards at once, especially if 3rd-party (especially JP ones) are still slow to get on board.

***

Haven't had time to check it out, but here's something that might be of interest to some of you: http://jp.gamesindustry.biz/article/1705/17052001/
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
The only big titles that could have a chance to come out for Switch this year and haven't been announced yet are Pokemon and/or Smash. Whatever else is shown won't make it before 2018 so there is nothing that could be a surprise for 2017 as far as first party or even third party games go that can make the difference. Same goes for PS4 and 3DS with things being even more clear there. There can be good estimates for hardware and software YTD sales after E3.
 
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