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[cws]

Prediction

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 175K
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 85K
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 100K
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 55K
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 45K
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 30K
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 120K
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 175K
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 100K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 775K
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 65K

 

[Gradivus]

Good to see FE:A still hanging in there. Hopefully that means more higher quality FE titles for the future.

Was Monster Hunter 4 always thought to be an early 2013 game?

What's the big 3DS game for holiday-season 2012? Animal Crossing?

Animal Crossing will most likely be the biggest 3DS title for the holiday season. Not sure how well Paper Mario games tend to do in Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

Animal Crossing will most likely be the biggest 3DS title for the holiday season. Not sure how well Paper Mario games tend to do in Japan.

Nintendo hasn't revealed everything for holidays yet.

 

[electroplankton]

Good to see FE:A still hanging in there. Hopefully that means more higher quality FE titles for the future.



Animal Crossing will most likely be the biggest 3DS title for the holiday season. Not sure how well Paper Mario games tend to do in Japan.

Fire Emblem: Awakening will reach 450k, imo.

Paper Mario could sell +500k, on Wii it managed to do.

 

[Stumpokapow]

It always amazes me how uneven the split is between Pokemon games. Do you think the reason why one does significantly better than the other is more owing to the exclusive content, or more owing to the name/colour choice/box art itself?

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Predictions

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 210K
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 68K
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 126K
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 51K
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 38K
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 29K
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 131K
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 215K
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 130K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 971K
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 89K

 

[Gradivus]

Nintendo hasn't revealed everything for holidays yet.

Yeah, I suppose so. We'll just have to wait for another 2 or 3 more Nintendo directs (if they continue their 2 months pace) to find out more release dates/hidden titles.

Fire Emblem: Awakening will reach 450k, imo.

Paper Mario could sell +500k, on Wii it managed to do.

Well I guess FE:A has got around 450k (when you include the on-line bundle numbers), but I think it will do another +40k once its knocked out of the top 20.

It always amazes me how uneven the split is between Pokemon games. Do you think the reason why one does significantly better than the other is more owing to the exclusive content, or more owing to the name/colour choice/box art itself?

From my experience, people just tend to go with the best looking Pokemon seen on the covers.

 

[Mpl90]

Nintendo hasn't revealed everything for holidays yet.

For sure. I think there could be the second Pokèmon game for 3DS, after Super Pokèmon Scramble.

 

[DGRE]

It always amazes me how uneven the split is between Pokemon games. Do you think the reason why one does significantly better than the other is more owing to the exclusive content, or more owing to the name/colour choice/box art itself?

Well, at least for BW2, it's a little more obvious. People just picked up whatever color they had gotten the first time around.

 

[BishopLamont]

For sure. I think there could be the second Pokèmon game for 3DS, after Super Pokèmon Scramble.

For Holiday 2013?

 

[Mpl90]

For Holiday 2013?

...Weren't we talking about THIS Holiday?
Something like Pokèmon Ranger / Mystery Dungeon / a brand new Pokèmon high level spin-off...I think there's a good possibility.

 

[Orgen]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 128.000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 63.000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 71.000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 33.000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 52.000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 24.000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 90.000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 159.000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) 47.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 678.000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 95.000

Chris, do you still believe that Demon Training won't reach 500.000 LTD? ;D

 

[BishopLamont]

...Weren't we talking about THIS Holiday?
Something like Pokèmon Ranger / Mystery Dungeon / a brand new Pokèmon high level spin-off...I think there's a good possibility.

Oh you mean spinoff, fair enough.

 

[Road]

Was Monster Hunter 4 always thought to be an early 2013 game?

What's the big 3DS game for holiday-season 2012? Animal Crossing?

There was a line of thought MH4 was going to be pushed to the next Capcom FY, yes.

Capcom does not work for Nintendo and their big holiday game this year is RE6. =P

 

[DGRE]

...Weren't we talking about THIS Holiday?
Something like Pokèmon Ranger / Mystery Dungeon / a brand new Pokèmon high level spin-off...I think there's a good possibility.

I would be pretty surprised but we've seen what Nintendo's capable of.

 

[ULTROS!]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 110k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 75k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 170k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 71k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 70k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 20K
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 65k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 150k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 150k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 800K
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 50K

 

[MasterSheen]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 120k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 35k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 60k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 15k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 21k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 11k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 80k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 70k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) 50k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 640k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 60k

 

[Gradivus]

I might as well join.

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 195.000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 65.000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 120.000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 50.000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 70.000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 30.000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 120.000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 175.000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) 70.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 700.000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 80.000

 

[zroid]

well, I've never done this before, but I'll give it a shot

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 110k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 50k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 125k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 30k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 50k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 18k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 100k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 210k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 80k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 700k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 100k

 

[Magicpaint]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 70k

Hope you're dead wrong. EOII easily outdid that in one week.

 

[Kandinsky]

Predicciones

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 165k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 55k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 75k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 30k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 25k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 20k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 133k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 345k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 125k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 610k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 60k

 

[ULTROS!]

Hope you're dead wrong. EOII easily outdid that in one week.

Let's hope so! I was called out downplaying on Pokemon B&W2's 1.5m overall prediction and Dragon Quest 3DS's near 500k-600k sales.

 

[Chris1964]

Let's hope so! I was called out downplaying on Pokemon B&W2's 1.5m overall prediction and Dragon Quest 3DS's near 500k-600k sales.

Pokemon's prediction was for 2 weeks you know.

 

[electroplankton]

Pokemon's prediction was for 2 weeks you know.

I think DQM was also more than one week, maybe 3 weeks?

 

[Busaiku]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 128k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 62k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 95k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 18k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 26k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 16k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 104k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 158k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 136k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 688k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 52k

 

[ULTROS!]

Pokemon's prediction was for 2 weeks you know.

Darn, I thought the (two weeks) marking meant that it's coming out in two weeks and we're predicting for first week's release only. I need to revise my current ones. My bad anyway.

 

[Burnburn]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 175k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 42k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 112k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 40k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 25k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 15k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 159k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 250k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 125k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 300k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 30k

I have no idea what I'm doing, but maybe I will have some right, who knows.

 

[baekshi]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 130,111
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 55,111
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 70,111
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 44,111
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 29,111
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 17,111
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 70,111
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 115,111
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 123,111
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 520,111
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 60,111

 

[Truth101]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 140.000
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 100.000
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 200.000
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 30.000
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 50.000
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 20.000
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 120.000
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 200.000
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) 80.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 900.000
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 175.000

 

[cws]

I have the feeling that EO4 will pull another Fire Emblem 3DS - demo created some positive buzz, especially with its new casual aka. normal mode and the possibility to transfer demo state into the retail title. I would be suprised if it under performs.

 

[Road]

Darn, I thought the (two weeks) marking meant that it's coming out in two weeks and we're predicting for first week's release only. I need to revise my current ones. My bad anyway.

I guess it can be confusing since not everyone see the original post with the rules, especially if they're predicting pages later. Guess I'll just start spamming the thread at every 50 posts. =P (Not sure if it's worth creating a thread only for it yet.)


Prediction League July, 2012

Predict the *LTD* as of July 29th for these titles:

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) -
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) -
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) -
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) -
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) -
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) -
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) -
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) -
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena -
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) -
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) -

Remember we're not guessing only first week sales. We're guessing the LTD after n weeks.

Deadline: July, 4th 11:00 am (EDT)

 

[disco]

Are DQM3D sales on target? I remember lots of people predicting 1.2m or more after 4 weeks. (Or am I just imagining this?)

 

[electroplankton]

Are DQM3D sales on target? I remember lots of people predicting 1.2m or more after 4 weeks. (Or am I just imagining this?)

It was supply constrained so I guess it met Square Enix expectations.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 100k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 55k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 75k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 55k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 50k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 20k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 100k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 120k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) -120k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 500k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 60k

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV - 123,456
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost - 87,654
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon - 156,789
[PSV] Time Travelers - 23,456
[3DS] Time Travelers - 34,567
[PSP] Time Travelers - 32,102
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 - 78,901
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection - 145,678
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 45,678
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 987,654
[3DS] Demon Training - 210,123

How about 3DS and 3DS LL sales in that week? I didn't include it already because it's not a LTD prediction, so people might be confused.

Yes to both!

 

[donny2112]

Prediction League July, 2012

*LTD* as of July 29th for these titles:

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 120K
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 90K
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 125K
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 30K
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 45K
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 45K
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 55K
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 150K
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week)- 70K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 1000K
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 250K

On a side note, I really don't like the translation for Oni Training as Demon Training. While Oni is an underworld type demon creature in Japanese mythology (based on my play-through of Muramasa ), the intent of calling it Oni Training is to indicate that it's going to be really tough training. Basically, Dr. Kawashima is going to be mean to you with how hard he works you to improve memory and concentration. It's not actually trying to train Demons or train you to become a Demon. Maybe "Challenging Brain Training: Memory and Concentration" would be a more accurate title, if not really a literal translation.

 

[zashga]

My pathetic attempt:

Prediction League July, 2012

Predict the *LTD* as of July 29th for these titles:

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 200k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 50k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 90k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 40k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 30k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 50k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 70k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 250k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 130k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 800k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) - 120k

 

[metalslimer]

First sales age post (long time lurker) I feel a little iffy on a few these (explosive boost and demon training for sure).

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 150k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) -60k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) -70k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 20k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 25k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 15k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 110k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 150k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - 110k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 weeks) - 650k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 weeks) -125k

 

[zroid]

On a side note, I really don't like the translation for Oni Training as Demon Training. While Oni is an underworld type demon creature in Japanese mythology (based on my play-through of Muramasa ), the intent of calling it Oni Training is to indicate that it's going to be really tough training. Basically, Dr. Kawashima is going to be mean to you with how hard he works you to improve memory and concentration. It's not actually trying to train Demons or train you to become a Demon. Maybe "Challenging Brain Training: Memory and Concentration" would be a more accurate title, if not really a literal translation.

Demonic Training, perhaps?

 

[Takao]

What LBX 3DS deserves to sell - 10k. What it will sell? 60k.

 

[Truth101]

New Super Mario Bros. - 865,024 (First Week)

DS/Lite LTD -8,434,823

I see NSMB2 opening similar, the 3DS won't have sold as much but the franchise is stronger now.


Edit:

Woah... there are some incredibly low predictions for NSMB2 in this thread. Rethink those numbers people.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Well I guess FE:A has got around 450k (when you include the on-line bundle numbers), but I think it will do another +40k once its knocked out of the top 20.

Online bundles were very few. It was almost impossible to get it (page went down as soon as the pre-orders opened, on every date), so I'm guessing <5k.

 

[zroid]

Online bundles were very few. It was almost impossible to get it (page went down as soon as the pre-orders opened, on every date), so I'm guessing <5k.

I thought I read somewhere there were 30k bundles. Or was that number a guess/made-up?

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Demonic Training, perhaps?

Dr. Kawashima's Boot Camp for your Brain: Squeal Like a Pig in Minutes a Day!

 

[Metallix87]

Here we go:

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 150k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 50k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 60k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 10k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 25k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 20k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 90k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 55k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena (1 week) - 30k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 680k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 100k

 

[donny2112]

Demonic Training, perhaps?

Oh, yes. That's much better. :|

 

[saichi]

New Super Mario Bros. - 865,024 (First Week)

DS/Lite LTD -8,434,823

I see NSMB2 opening similar, the 3DS won't have sold as much but the franchise is stronger now.


Edit:

Woah... there are some incredibly low predictions for NSMB2 in this thread. Rethink those numbers people.

it will be released on eShop... ;-)

 

[electroplankton]

Online bundles were very few. It was almost impossible to get it (page went down as soon as the pre-orders opened, on every date), so I'm guessing <5k.

Yeah, it was impossible to get it but I remember to have read something like 30k units.

 

[Tratorn]

[3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV (4 weeks) - 150k
[3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Explosive Boost (4 weeks) - 75k
[3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon (3 weeks) - 70k
[PSV] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 28k
[3DS] Time Travelers (3 weeks) - 39k
[PSP] Time Travelers (2 weeks) - 17k
[3DS] Rune Factory 4 (2 weeks) - 80k
[WII] Kirby 20th Anniversary Collection (2 weeks) - 110k
[PS3] Persona 4: Arena - (1 week) 40k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (1 week) - 690k
[3DS] Demon Training (1 week) - 80k

 

[donny2112]

it will be released on eShop... ;-)

We're talking about a country that lines up for everything. You think they're going to miss out on the chance to queue by downloading a game?

Seriously, I expect the download option was more for the West than for Japanese gamers. Can't sell back a download for 80% of the purchase cost a week after buying, after all.