I'm going to wait a bit longer before making a prediction, but my gut is that if Nintendo can't sell more than 20K hardware for that week, they are in very big trouble.
Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2013 (Jun 17 - Jun 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I'm going to wait a bit longer before making a prediction, but my gut is that if Nintendo can't sell more than 20K hardware for that week, they are in very big trouble.
michaelius
Banned
There's Limited Edition Vita for Toukiden so sales should be quite good anyway hardware wise.
But it'll be very interesting to see PSP/PSV sales split on Toukiden.
StreetsAhead
Member
July 13th being a Saturday might make the impact of that week look smaller, though.
QuiteWhittle
Member
What's the next huge release? MonHun?
Bruno MB
Member
Terrible second week drop, sell-through must be very low too. So much for Square Enix trying to pull of a Level-5-style media cash cow.
And talking about Level-5, the will release next month 3 titles: Youkai Watch (July 11), Little Battlers eXperience W Super Custom (July 18) and Fantasy Life Link! (July 25).
Youkai Watch is supposedly their next big thing. Little Battlers eXperience: Explosive Boost had great sales (around 200.000 units), but I don't think this next port to 3DS will do nearly as well as the previous one.
Heart Attack
Member
Is Pikmin huge in Japan?
DarkLordMalik
Member
It will get a boost of upto 15-18K but won't last long enough.
Bruno MB
Member
Famitsu numbers are finally up: http://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/
The Last of Us - 129.983
3DS - 34.480
PS Vita - 13.002
PS3 - 10.077
PSP - 5.201
Wii U - 4.236
The Last of Us - 129.983
3DS - 34.480
PS Vita - 13.002
PS3 - 10.077
PSP - 5.201
Wii U - 4.236
Magicpaint
Member
~450-500k sellers judging from the first two. The ports on Wii sold 150-200k.
Dat 3DS hardware difference. Looks even better for TLOU.
AranhaHunter
Banned
It's a joke, but it should be real. TLOU is superior to RE in every way and RE hasn't been good since 4. Western games don't sell in Japan though.
Do you have release date, LTD, and "The Best" numbers?
They haven't to me, no. LM is a special case as it's a lovely Nintendo franchise. If NLG developed a new IP published by Nintendo and reached those numbers I would agree. TLOU deserves to sell more than 100k, even if 100k is great numbers for a western game in Japan.
With a hefty price cut and a final redesign, maybe with a redesign the size of the wii or a bit bigger, they may be able to reach 12 million, but yeah, no more than that and I think that's the absolute best case scenario. It'll probably die out around 10.5-11 million.
And there's no guarantee they would reach the JP audience either. I mean Biohazard sells 1 million with re releases, so there's an audience for those games there.
I think it's literally impossible for the WiiU not to sell more than 20K the week of Pikmin 3, NSL, and a new HW SKU.
First 2 sold around 500K each, but that was like 10 years ago.
The Wii re-releases did 150-175k.
Kind of hard to figure out.
Definitely the biggest Wii U release since launch, which of course doesn't mean all that much.
Just 237 units less and I'd have burst out laughing. Alas, my chuckles are suppressed.
Anyone know if it has gone below Vita's lowest number yet?
Some do, some don't.
01./00. [PS3] Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance # <ACT> (Konami) {2013.02.21} (¥6.980) - 308.681 / NEW
(400K LTD)
(~210K launch combined)
Wii exclusive:
Can't really predict if W101 will do well. I'm expecting a 70-80k opening myself.
Vita's worst week was 4,0xx something, so it's nearly there.
WiiU is in a big trouble at the moment. If the system can't sell >20k with the release of Pikmin 3, NSLU and a new color the thing is dead.
I think the lowest Vita week was 4,058, but I'm going from memory and I drink an awful lot.
I'd say it's likely that it's had more sub 6k weeks than Vita, but that's just a gut feeling.
mrmickfran
Member
Bayonetta sold around 170k week one (PS360 combined)
Vanquish sold around 60k week one
Infinite Space sold a little under 50k week one
Anarchy Reigns sold a little over 25k week one
Madworld didn't even make the top 30
Metal Gear Rising made over 300k week one
DDD(While being a PS3 exclusive title on top of that. IT LEFT THEM ALL BEHIIIIIND)
So only 2 out of 6 were really successful in Japan.
I'm waiting for the day that Platinum Games'
games make Call Of Duty sales.
games make Call Of Duty sales.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Mario Wii U - 524,438
Pikmin 3 will bomb.
Wii U install base will drag it down, same happened with Monster Hunter.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Mortimer Brewster
Member
The Neptunia rhythm game gave the Vita a decent little push. I need to sit down and play it after I finish up with Photokano Kiss and Haiyore Nyaruko San.
I mean, Wii U broke 20K in March when DQX and Game & Wario combined for what, like 60K sales?
Sammy Samusu
Member
TLoU had a bigger opening than U3, whoa. (129k vs 122k)
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
WiiU is plummeting to the depths of Hades. Terrible HW numbers.
Heart Attack
Member
damn. 200k its a given then.
There was also a limited DQX bundle, though. Is there a bundle for Pikmin 3?
No, but there is a new white premium model coming out the same day. I dunno..I'm not expecting an insane number, but 20K should be automatic.
StreetsAhead
Member
No, but the white premium model comes out the same day.
metalslimer
Member
It will break 20k, but anyone expecting something like 40k should hold their horses. It will then quickly drop back below 10k and Wonderful 101 will not be a system seller. People should be looking forward to October, November and December because July and August will be rough.
Edit:Yeesh at that 3DS Famitsu number. Everybody moved out of the way for Monster Hunter it seems only for it to launch much later than expected. Hopefully Nintendo starts getting more announcements for next year. Outside of MH4, can someone give me a list of the surefire 3rd party 100k sellers for the rest of the year announced for3DS?
Edit:Yeesh at that 3DS Famitsu number. Everybody moved out of the way for Monster Hunter it seems only for it to launch much later than expected. Hopefully Nintendo starts getting more announcements for next year. Outside of MH4, can someone give me a list of the surefire 3rd party 100k sellers for the rest of the year announced for3DS?
I see.
I personally think 20k, probably 30k should be a given too, seeing as it seems to follow a similar pattern to Vita last year (which had ~40k on Miku/P4G release weeks).
StreetsAhead
Member
There's also Lego (which have never been out in Japan before as far as I can tell), Yakuza, and Wind Waker before October. It's not going to set the world on fire, but maybe it can keep it above 8K in a slow week until Mario/Party/Fit/Sonic come.
For Media Create, it's at over 43k. Seriously, why such a big difference XD
djplaeskool
Member
It's not really a rhythm game. The focus is more driven by the relationship and management systems. The actual performance bits in the game are not nearly as intricate as those in, say, the iM@S games.
metalslimer
Member
It seems Vita at least has enough juice left in it to stay where it's at for while. I don't want to use the word stabilized because it still doing terribly vs where anyone expected it to be, but I doubt it sells 4k anytime soon.The rest of the world is where the problem lies. I really don't want to see Sony completely leave portable gaming so hopefully they find a way to do something. Is there any chance Nintendo moves up the launch date for Mario Kart 8? Any precedence?
I think for the medium to long term, holding Mario Kart 8 until March April makes more sense for Nintendo.
October through December is actually looking pretty stacked first party wise- you are going to have Wind Waker at the end of September, then Wii Fit U, Wii U Party, SM3D World, and probably DKCR:TF and Mario and Sonic until the end of the year.
StreetsAhead
Member
I'll eat my hat if they do.
The best Japan can hope for right now is DKTF releasing this year.
AranhaHunter
Banned
I did some research myself, and I looked at the game data museum database. Some of the numbers are off and seems garaph is outdated. Uncharted 2: The Best LTD is 33,953, Uncharted DFLTD is 55,003, Uncharted GA LTD is 98,106.
All ND games this generation have sold over 100K yet none have broken the 200K barrier in Japan, that's interesting. Also interesting that Uncharted 3 hasn't gotten a "The Best" re-release over there yet either. Do we know when that's releasing there?
It would be a victory for TLOU to sell over 200K before the re-release.
Difference between trackers is nothing new, look at LTD for PS3 and especially the PSP.
The titles already announced with possibility (if not certainty) of hitting 100k.
New Etrian Odyssey: Millennium Girl
Youkai Watch
Little Battler Experience W Chou Custom
Fantasy Life Link! (?)
Ace Attorney 5
Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life
Battle for Money
Little Battler Experience Wars
Inazuma Eleven Galaxy
One Piece: Unlimited World R
Puzzle and Dragons Z
Probably the next DQ remake will be announced for this Holiday season, too.
These are the first ones I remember.
metalslimer
Member
This holiday is Nintendo's last big chance and with the possibility of PS4 not launching a golden opportunity. Mario kart should be out and not Donkey Kong. And I'm still very skeptical of the Wii ___ series still being relevant. The lack of 3rd party support also hurts.
I personally think it would be better to have Mario Kart out this holiday, but I do think they need to hold something back to try and keep some momentum.
shinra-bansho
Member
What was the Wii U at in the weeks prior to DQX though, out of curiosity? (if anyone remembers off the top of their head)
Very nice.
Meanwhile, Wii U is getting perilously close to another psychological barrier the 4K mark.
http://garaph.info/index.php
So better than Uncharted 3.
Very nice.
Meanwhile, Wii U is getting perilously close to another psychological barrier the 4K mark.
Just got those from a boolean software search of Uncharted from garaph.
http://garaph.info/index.php
Callibretto
Member
Ellie is so moe.
AranhaHunter
Banned
Lego is not gonna do anything, and neither will Yakuza.
WW HD is a question mark, but, I've mentioned this before, OOT did 1.1 mil on N64 and 500K on 3DS. OOT is widely considered to be a superior game to WW and 3DS is a much more successful product than the WiiU. WW did 740K on GC, if the ratio was to stay the same, WW HD would do 336K on WiiU. However, I'm not sure the ratio will stay the same, I think anything above 250K for WW HD would be a major plus, but you never know.
Yeah, I looked it up after asking you, some of those LTD numbers on garaph are outdated. Do you know when Uncharted 3: The best is releasing in JP?