Yeah, since I wrote that I noticed MC's sales table upthread where it hit the +x% transition at about 12k. I think it's an interesting stat; outside of holidays and the like, that's an indication of some sort of settling level.
Media Create Sales: Week 27, 2015 (Jun 29 - Jul 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Yeah, since I wrote that I noticed MC's sales table upthread where it hit the +x% transition at about 12k. I think it's an interesting stat; outside of holidays and the like, that's an indication of some sort of settling level.
In terms of Wii U games, Yoshi's Woolly World is coming out next week, Devil's Third is an Amazon Japan exclusive, so that won't make a dent and nothing else until Mario Maker for September 10th
Splatoon is already at ~440k LTD. It's not even remote crazy that it will be 500k before July ends.
I was only discussing it due to how the conversation formed. 700K by the end of the year in Japan? That's some faith you got there.
Is that not what you were implying with this post when you replied to someone who said P5 would outsell P4G?
Sakura
Member
Based on what? More recognisable to whom? Just because it had an anime that did alright? Spinoffs that sell well? I think you are significantly overestimating its popularity.
Skyward sword did 190k in its first week. Majora's Mask, a remake of an older Zelda game, did 230k first week. Therefore Zelda is huge now and the new Zelda game will do like 600k first right? Of course not.
Come on now, Persona 5 will do great I'm sure, but it isn't an MGS or similar tier franchise in popularity or recognition. It's not selling 600k+ this year.
I was implying there that a good portion of P4G's sales were from people who bought P4.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Those Splatoon legs
I'm surprised to see such a significant rise from the PS4. Can a minor update to the model possibly create that much of a boost?
We are talking about low sales anyway. Of course a new model can achieve a few thousands sales.
By the way: someone here really loves persona, but personal favorites and real sales are a big difference
Are you seriously trying to say that Persona is not a popular IP? Let's not be obtuse here. I understand you want Splatoon to succeed, but it's still a brand new IP that came to a system that is starved for quality titles. It's success on Wii U does not speak for the success of Persona 5 which previous entries and spin-offs have given decent sales.
Avatar bet?
He was saying that being a popular IP doesn't automatically mean the game will sell gangbusters in it's first year. Hence the Zelda analogy.
Sakura
Member
No, I'm saying more popular franchises than Persona don't even do as much as you are saying Persona will do. It may be more popular than it was when Persona 4 came out, but it is not doing 600+k this year.
there's a leggy looking squid in this thread that could use another user to make it their avatar
;p
The Hoshido and Nohr games as much as the 3rd game of the FE If series have been planned as three games from the beginning according to the producer with the former two games already having their own retail SKU. You can track the three different SKUs (Hoshido, Nohr and special edition), on their own which would accurately reflect the items sold at retail but the special edition was in fact bought because people wanted at the very least more than one Fire Emblem if game and likely would have bought the games seperately otherwise, therefore counting the special edition as at least two games you actually reflect more the actual interest in the Fe If series. I think that´s likely the reason why Famitsu doubled the sales of the special edition.
While there isn´t a seperate retail SKU for the third game yet I wouldn´t exclude a release at a later date. At the very least that would be a good opportunity to push sales even further and a good occasion to release a new shipment of the special edition.
That comparison doesn't really make sense. Zelda is a franchise that's struggling with its popularity recently, while Persona got pretty much entirely rebooted with Persona 3 and is becoming increasingly popular ever since. Persona 5 selling 500k and more in Japan is not a far-fetched assumption at all.
It's been 7 years since the last mainline release in the Persona series. Since then, it has had:
- Two fighting game spin-offs.
- A rhythm game spin-off.
- A dungeon crawler spin-off.
- Multiple concerts.
- Two anime series.
- An ongoing movie series.
- Mystery Escape Game amusements.
- Multiple stage shows.
- Several restaurant collaborations.
Zelenogorsk
Banned
Splatoon can't be stopped.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
It has a huge bonus of being released on a current-gen console, unlike P4 which came out like two years into the PS3's life cycle.
I understand it's our only point of comparison, but given the way it was released, it just doesn't really seem helpful to compare P4 and P5. We've either got a game that came out 7 years ago on old hardware or a game that game out 4 years later as a remake of that game.
Also this too. We're comparing the state of the fanbase in 2008 to 2015.
The only think I know is that Persona 5 and Splatoon will both sell more and than 500k.... How much ore who knows. But both will be successes that home consoles need in this day and age... So I don't get the pit fight mentality when comparing these games. Don't even know why the comparison was brought up, games couldn't be more different...
Sakura
Member
Yes, but the special edition itself is still just 1 SKU, I don't think it should be counted as two, let alone 3, SKUs. (I know they aren't counting it as 3, just for arguments sake)
The retail copy of one game is about 5000 yen (tax included) while another route is 2000 yen (tax included). I think it is a bit disingenuous to count that as 2 game sales.
My point is simply a rerelease of an older game doing well shouldn't suggest amazing sales for a new entry. There are many times games are given updated rereleases that do well, but that doesn't mean new entries do over twice the sales, because often the updated rereleases sell to existing fans as well.
I've consistently said in this thread that Persona is more popular than it was when Persona 4 originally came out, and that I think Persona 5 will do great. However, Splatoon will almost certainly be at at least 500~600k by the end of the year, and the idea that Persona has gotten so big as to easily outsell that this year, is rather silly to me.
But what I mean is that their continued and growing interest is from that sufficient depth and tools available. The stuff you can create is what drives kids, with the real complex designs coming from community of the more hardcore. A large part of that is not from the ability to stack pixel blocks.
Its a big ecosystem that is a happy accident.
I think the Persona 5 vs. Splatoon argument has gone all over the place lol. There's no doubt in my mind that P5 will sell gangbusters, and anything less than 300k first week will be a huge disappointment for me. But if we're talking about this year, sorry but with Splatoon selling the way it is right now, I'm not sure how it will be beaten by P5, which we still don't know when it'll be released this year. Maybe if P5 will sell 500k total on its first week and if it's released much earlier than the holidays, sure it has a chance. Other than that, maybe it would win at an LTD battle of two non-competing games,
which I still give Splatoon the edge unless we're talking about worldwide LTD.
I made it quite clear that there are three SKUs released so far. I also basically explained what Famitsus reasoning might be, since they actually are counting the special edition double, for a similar reason why games in hardware bundles are added to the games sales.
While the Hoshido and Nohr SKU cost 5000 yen each in retail, the special edition sku costs 10.000 yen.
We are talking about the sales number this year here. It is highly difficult for Persona to maybe sales like 600k day one here. Which is the main argument. But many seems to miss the question here.
All those thing shows that it is not going to impossible for Persona to maybe even reach 700k LTD. But it is not going to reach them like suddenly there.
I'm not addressing that part of the conversation, only what I quoted, which made it sound like Persona hasn't done much in terms of growing its fanbase in the 7 years since Persona 4.
Of course not lol. Persona fanbase have indeed grow there. The anime and many other collab have sure grow the title fanbase here. That is not something to be question anymore. Whether the grow is going to make it bigger than MGS is going to be the big question though.^_^
I dont understand what are kids doing on minecraft that you dont think they'll be able to do on DQB?
It's not even 600K day one. People are trying to say that Persona 5 isn't going to outsell Splatoon at all which I disagree with. How fast and if it will outsell either this year or next? Time will tell.
I think this is the lowest I've ever seen Puzzle & Dragons go:
The end of an Era.T_T..... wait since when did Chain Chronicle stays that high? I thought Hortensia and Monster Gear get more money there?
Chain Chronicle gets huge event spikes, but is lower during other times.
It used to be even higher, but generally as the amount of money made by games goes up, some peak lower even if looking through Sega's documents, they're making more money.
Elaborate creations systems based on logical circuits that enable all of the cool stuff in Minecraft, these elaborate "big projects" are what really drive the community. But that's not my point, my point is that Minecraft's strength isn't just its creation tools or the ability to put together pixel blocks.
Its the community, the various toolsets and features, and the options. Its the whole big package that is, effectively, entrenched in the world and the community.
(Basically, the same things/reasons that make LEGO Worlds nothing special compared to Minecraft. Slap on a known brand, copy the rules...win? DQB will do fine on strength of brand alone, I still think its creatively bankrupt. About as fascinating to me as a reskinned P&D with Mario slapped on top of it...)
Pennywise83
Banned
If the game is selling 30k in mid-July, it can easily pull >45k during Obon week in August.
Hmmm. Considering that currently CC Jp is having 2nd Anniversary Event for their first character launch. I can see why the spike there.^_^
And on the topic of how it is much lower during other times, can it also be caused by the maturation of the player? As the longer f2p game goes there will be a point where most of the player have grow strong enough to continue doing all the event without any need of pulling the gacha there. And it end up causing the decrease in profit?
As thats the feeling i had with Jp CC currently where some high rank player simply chooses to avoid certain gacha as they feel it is not useful enough for their team.
I feel this is probably the big weakness of gacha rpg style f2p games.
I'm still not sure on what specifically you're talking about, but i guess we just disagree on what some people get out of minecraft and why they play. ¯\_(ツ
_/¯Maybe it will be, but you shouldn't dismiss something so quickly based on only a screenshot. Should minecraft be the only game in this genre forever?
KillerMan91
Member
Really wonder where Vita would be without Minecraft... Probably way below sub 10k barrier weekly.
thestopsign
Member
Splatoon is going to be around 750k easily by the end of the year if it continues to have these types of drops and has even a remote bump for Obon and New Years (which it will because it is a Nintendo game). Let's say it continues to have 15% drops from 34k:
Week 1: 34k
Week 2: 28.9k
Week 3: 24.6k
Week 4: 20.9k
Week 5: 17.7k
Week 6: 15.1k
And so on. That is another 100k in the next 5 weeks, and it will likely get a substantial bump in week 5 and 6 there due to Obon. Then it has another 4-5 months of sales after that with the end of the year bump.
Persona 5 should do 500k or so. I think MGSV is a closer sales comparison for this year.
Week 1: 34k
Week 2: 28.9k
Week 3: 24.6k
Week 4: 20.9k
Week 5: 17.7k
Week 6: 15.1k
And so on. That is another 100k in the next 5 weeks, and it will likely get a substantial bump in week 5 and 6 there due to Obon. Then it has another 4-5 months of sales after that with the end of the year bump.
Persona 5 should do 500k or so. I think MGSV is a closer sales comparison for this year.
I think this is the lowest I've ever seen Puzzle & Dragons go:
Another franchise to add to the dead list, so far we've got:
Final Fantasy
Mario
Puzzle and Dragons
Personally I think Persona 5 is going to be bigger than MGSV in Japan.
I just don't think the console market provides the necessary environment for a first week of sales to surpass 300k for any title.
All it took was one screenshot of P&DSM know what it was, lol.
Lol glad you're keeping an open mind.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
No one forgets that. I was talking about the PS2 sales, which Splatoon has already surpassed.
Yes, Golden sold quite well too, but it would be the height of silliness to suggest that you should add the PS2 sales and Golden together. Most of those people were folks who played the original and then bought Golden for the additional content. I'm also not sure why you added in the North American sales when we're talking about Japanese sales.
Persona 4 sold around 330k on PS2, and then some extra sales from the Best release. Golden sold along similar lines.
Even with Persona 5 massively increasing and getting up to around 600,000 sales, Splatoon will be higher in Japan by the end of the year. Counting digital sales, it could be there by next month. So the claim that Persona 5 was going to easily outsell Splatoon was nothing short of absurd.
600K is probably the best case scenario for Persona this year, and it's pretty much a done deal that Splatoon will surpass that.
Oh I am keeping an open mind, doesn't mean I can't call it for what I see it, lol.
Let's start a petition to have it canceled!
We're in the "throw everything and the kitchen sink" phase of Japanese console development, lol.
honestly it's surprising it took this long before a big publishers tried to capitalize on the minecraft craze
Probably some level of uncertainty in how to tackle the idea and have a good RoI to really justify it.
CreatureX3
Member
What about GTA clone set in F-Zero universe starring Capt. Falcon?