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[jonno394]

Xenoblade is not a major release.

Definitely not mainstream enough to be seen as a way to push consoles over the holidays, this has the potential to do more than previous xenoblades (especially X and 3D), but definitely not huge amounts more.l

Either there is something entirely unannounced or they have faith that Mario Kart, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey is all that is required to shift their consoles, and right now demand doesn't seem to be letting up, so who knows.....

 

[Aters]

Eh, I think it'll be okay. Could do better than XCX given the health of the Switch.

That's a really low bar.
Honestly I don't understand the situation of XB in Japan. It is very well-received, even in Japan, but people just don't seem to buy it.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Xenoblade is not a major release.

It could still sell well by virtue of being the big (in scope) jrpg in a console that doesnt have many jrpgs.

 

[Glass Joe]

Mario Odyssey release too early in the holiday season to make me think that there isn't another game planned for November.

The Switch doesn't need a huge holiday title since it can't keep up with demand now, like, at all. The new Mario might be coming out earlier than expected just to keep the existing owners happy, knowing full well that anyone who can manage to grab a Switch in November/December will also pick Mario up as well.

 

[LordKano]

The only thing that could potentially release this holiday season that would drive sales would be a Wii U port of a popular game (Smash, Mario Maker, something in that vein). If it was an original title, it would have been announced at E3, and since they seem somewhat afraid of announcing too many ports at once or during big events, they may announce something with this Fall's direct.

Or maybe there's nothing and they'll let Mario + 3rd parties carry everything.

 

[duckroll]

It could still sell well by virtue of being the big (in scope) jrpg in a console that doesnt have many jrpgs.

"Well" is relative.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

People are questioning whether DQXI can ship 1 million in the west? Lol.

That is easy and it has nothing to so with PS4 being a good or bad platform.

If it's a good platform then it should sell 2 million.

The only game that can sell 2 million is SMT 5 on the Nintendo Switch. If Persona 5 can do 1.8 million, SMT 5 should have no trouble clearing 2 million and above on Switch, in the West.

 

[Aters]

The only thing that could potentially release this holiday season that would drive sales would be a Wii U port of a popular game (Smash, Mario Maker, something in that vein). If it was an original title, it would have been announced at E3, and since they seem somewhat afraid of announcing too many ports at once or during big events, they may announce something with this Fall's direct.

Or maybe there's nothing and they'll let Mario + 3rd parties carry everything.

A Mario Maker port makes too much sense. I actually think Nintendo is gonna do it. I think they'd leave Smash till next year because they already get Arms and Pokken.

The only game that can sell 2 million is SMT 5 on the Nintendo Switch. If Persona 5 can do 1.8 million, SMT 5 should have no trouble clearing 2 million and above on Switch, in the West.

Not sure if it's sarcasm. But unless SMT goes the waifu route, which they are definitely trying with SMT4A, it will not even come close to Persona.

 

[Jon Carter]

To be fair there isn't that many jrpg with a 90+ metacritic...



Haha, and I know it's a joke but I don't think Crash would do particularly well on the Switch. It's clearly tapping into old PS owner's nostalgia.

I think it would do well. My wife and I feel nostalgic for it but don't like PlayStation anymore as the PS3/PS4 had and have little in common with the PlayStation of the '90s. Same for an old roommate of mine. We don't care about today's AAA games and, aside from token efforts here and there, Nintendo is the only one of the big three catering to our tastes. I think Crash would be popular with the Switch audience. It's colorful, it's an action platformer, and it was big in the '90s.

 

[schuelma]

The Switch doesn't need a huge holiday title since it can't keep up with demand now, like, at all. The new Mario might be coming out earlier than expected just to keep the existing owners happy, knowing full well that anyone who can manage to grab a Switch in November/December will also pick Mario up as well.

Well, just looking at Japan since we're in a Media Create thread- right now the Japan Fall/holiday lineup doesn't look all that hot. Remember, 3D Mario traditionally hasn't been as big in Japan as in the West, and aside from what will be a 4 month old Splatoon 2 I don't see any other huge, mainstream software so far announced this year.

Now, it is very possibly demand is so high that it literally won't matter, but right now the Japan lineup doesn't look all that impressive to me.

 

[LordKano]

Maybe Fire Emblem Warriors will be that major title

Spoiler

lol

 

[Oregano]

A Mario Maker port makes too much sense. I actually think Nintendo is gonna do it. I think they'd leave Smash till next year because they already get Arms and Pokken.



Not sure if it's sarcasm. But unless SMT goes the waifu route, which they are definitely trying with SMT4A, it will not even come close to Persona.

I don't think they'd release Mario Maker and Mario Odyssey back to back(especially considering MK8D and Mario + Rabbids exist).

 

[Jon Carter]

Maybe there will be a double-betrayalton and Monster Hunter World is coming to Switch this fall? Other than that, maybe some type of mini-game collection?

 

[Aters]

I don't think they'd release Mario Maker and Mario Odyssey back to back(especially considering MK8D and Mario + Rabbids exist).

Aside from featuring Mario, those games have entirely different gameplay. I don't think there's gonna be a "Mario fatigue". Also all of these games, maybe except Rabbids, are gonna chart for years along with each other.

 

[jonno394]

Xenoblade 2 in November, Dragon Quest XI switch in December.

 

[Zedark]

Maybe there will be a double-betrayalton and Monster Hunter World is coming to Switch this fall? Other than that, maybe some type of mini-game collection?

That doesn't sound very likely. DQXI for Switch would be plausible for this fall, though.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

The only game that can sell 2 million is SMT 5 on the Nintendo Switch. If Persona 5 can do 1.8 million, SMT 5 should have no trouble clearing 2 million and above on Switch, in the West.

I wish.

SMT is much better than Pissona.

 

[Liabe Brave]

The Switch doesn't need a huge holiday title since it can't keep up with demand now, like, at all.

Agreed. Given that Nintendo didn't change their FY shipment forecast, it seems like it would be meaningless to add big software. They're already going to sell every unit they make. More tentpole releases would simply be overkill.

I'm not sure folks have really absorbed how restrictive the numbers are. Nintendo is saying that they'll ship ~6.5m units worldwide to cover the last six months of 2017. That includes Splatoon 2 release, Mario+Rabbids release, Odyssey release, all the other smaller games, and the holidays. Just 6.5m units to cover all of that, worldwide.

 

[duckroll]

The only game that can sell 2 million is SMT 5 on the Nintendo Switch. If Persona 5 can do 1.8 million, SMT 5 should have no trouble clearing 2 million and above on Switch, in the West.

Did that InuhyanloveSabermaiwaifu guy hack your account? Lmao.

 

[schuelma]

DQXI for Switch would be plausible for this fall, though.

Yeah, that's the only title that seems somewhat plausible for Japan.

 

[Oregano]

DQXI won't be even be a big game on Switch though. It will definitely sell less than Mario Odyssey.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

I wish.

SMT is much better than Pissona.

I bought Devil Summoner on PSP, Soul Hackers on 3DS, and every other 3DS MegaTen game, and I feel with great certainty SMTV (even if it is ultimately Switch-exclusive), will likely not do 2 million.

If it's PS4 and Switch, maybe somewhere between 1 and 2 million, but man. Mainline and non-Persona spinoffs just don't see the success of Persona, as much as I want them to.

 

[LordKano]

If SMTIVA is any indication, SMT is going deeper through the anime/waifu route, probably in hope of selling better.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

"Well" is relative.

200k or so would be good right?

 

[Principate]

If SMTIVA is any indication, SMT is going deeper through the anime/waifu route, probably in hope of selling better.

Feels a bit redundant to do that with it and have persona. I feel Luke a high budget typical SMT will do quite in the current environment. There aren't a massive amount of high budget turned based games and regardless of if it's a switch exclusive or not a critically well rated jpg in it's usual.venom would stand out.

What's SMTIV at anyway.

 

[whyamihere]

That doesn't make it a major release.

Sure.

That's a really low bar.
Honestly I don't understand the situation of XB in Japan. It is very well-received, even in Japan, but people just don't seem to buy it.

Probably explains the art style for XC2 tbh

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Did that InuhyanloveSabermaiwaifu guy hack your account? Lmao.

He made me #believe in SMT hype.

Spoiler

I have never played any SMT game aside from the one on PS2 with the Dante cameo

 

[LordKano]

Sure.


Probably explains the art style for XC2 tbh

I'm 100% sure they're just randomly picking chara designers because they've made 3 titles with 3 different style and the faces somehow always managed to be shitty.

 

[Skullwaker]

I think XB2 is in a much better position than XC or XCX.

Xenoblade on the Wii released pretty late in the system's life, so although it sold pretty well I think it would've done better if it was released in the first couple years of the Wii. Xenoblade Chronicles X...was on the Wii U. I would say enough said, but similarly to the original, it released late in the system's life as well.

With Xenoblade 2, it's releasing in the first year of the Switch, and the platform is actually successful. It will also be one of the first major single player experiences on the platform following Zelda in Japan, which is a nice selling point. Not to mention it's on a handheld, which other than the port of the original, the series hasn't done before.

It's not a big holiday title, but it should be a nice mid-range game in between big titles. And hopefully there is one following Mario Odyssey this year. DQXI would be nice.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

If SMTIVA is any indication, SMT is going deeper through the anime/waifu route, probably in hope of selling better.

I think it just remains to be seen, maybe FINAL/Apocalypse was a one-off (at least for mainline SMT). I'm curious to see how old the protagonist will be in the new game, and what the 'party' (for lack of a better word) looks like.

A bunch of high-school age kids running around with an adult or two is basically on par with something like Devil Survivor or Persona 2 Innocent Sin, at least as far as the post-PS1 games go.

The dynamic of SMT4 I thought was very interesting, though the world was under-realised on the 3DS. Getting a new, fleshed-out, 'adult' experience on PS4/Switch is something I would buy day one.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

Feels a bit redundant to do that with it and have persona. I feel Luke a high budget typical SMT will do quite in the current environment. There aren't a massive amount of high budget turned based games and regardless of if it's a switch exclusive or not a critically well rated jpg in it's usual.venom would stand out.

What's SMTIV at anyway.

Don't know about worldwide, but at least in Japan SMTIV sat on Media Create charts for about a month, and fell off at 245.5k sold.

Atlus also tweeted in July 2015 that they sold over 600k worldwide, so that should give you some idea.

 

[Chris1964]

Week 31, 2017 (Jul 31 - Aug 6)

new releases

{2017.08.02}
[3DS] Crystareino _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <RPG> (Kemco) {2017.08.02} (¥740)
[3DS] Inch Worm Animation 2: Butterfly _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ETC> (Rainy Frog) {2017.08.02} (¥740)
[WIU] Tallowmere _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Teyon Japan) {2017.08.02} (¥462)

{2017.08.03}
[3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo <ADV> (Capcom) {2017.08.03} (¥5.800)
[3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Capcom) {2017.08.03} (¥5.546)
[3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 1 & 2 Special Edition {Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Bouken \ Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo} <ADV> (Capcom) {2017.08.03} (¥7.200)
[3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.08.03} (¥2.800)
[3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.08.03} (¥2.800)
[NSW] Rei-Jin-G-Lu-P _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Kemco) {2017.08.03} (¥2.777)
[NSW] Puzzle Adventure Blockle _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Intense) {2017.08.03} (¥740)
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy <Crash Bandicoot \ Crash Bandicoot 2: Cortex Strikes Back \ Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped> <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.08.03} (¥4.900)
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy <Crash Bandicoot \ Crash Bandicoot 2: Cortex Strikes Back \ Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped> (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.08.03} (¥4.900)
___

YSO predictions

01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age < 250k (average 220k)
02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age < 210k (average 180k)
03. [NSW] Splatoon 2 < 120k (average 100k)
00. [3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo < 100k (average 90k)

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I also believe XB2 has the potential to do great on the Swtich. It will follow Zelda as the second major single player JRPG to release on Switch. It is also releasing during the holidays, at a time when the Switch needs all the software it gets, to a potential horde of fans hungry for more Switch games.

If it gets really good reviews, like closer to the original Xenoblade, it has a chance to take off easily.

 

[Chris1964]

Well, just looking at Japan since we're in a Media Create thread- right now the Japan Fall/holiday lineup doesn't look all that hot. Remember, 3D Mario traditionally hasn't been as big in Japan as in the West, and aside from what will be a 4 month old Splatoon 2 I don't see any other huge, mainstream software so far announced this year.

Now, it is very possibly demand is so high that it literally won't matter, but right now the Japan lineup doesn't look all that impressive to me.

Even if Nintendo doesn't announce anything else for Switch this year Splatoon 2 will be the top selling game of holidays and you really underestimate Odyssey.

 

[Skullwaker]

No prediction for Crash? And that would be a really good hold for Splatoon 2, since their prediction last week was <150k.

 

[Chris1964]

sinobi expects 120-150k LTD for Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 and gives shipments for the 3 PS Crash that are quite up from Famitsu estimates back then.

Crash Bandicoot - 1,20m
Crash Bandicoot 2: Cortex Strikes Back - 1,33m
Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped - 1,50m

 

[Alrus]

Hot damn I never realized the crash games sold so well in Japan.

 

[Ōkami]

I have the first Crash at 0.90m, but shipments for the other ones match with what I have.

 

[Skullwaker]

Warped is the best one. Japan has good taste.

 

[schuelma]

Even if Nintendo doesn't announce anything else for Switch this year Splatoon 2 will be the top selling game of holidays and you really underestimate Odyssey.

Definitely possible.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I also believe XB2 has the potential to do great on the Swtich. It will follow Zelda as the second major single player JRPG to release on Switch. It is also releasing during the holidays, at a time when the Switch needs all the software it gets, to a potential horde of fans hungry for more Switch games.

If it gets really good reviews, like closer to the original Xenoblade, it has a chance to take off easily.

I don't see it tbh.
But who knows

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I don't see it tbh.
But who knows

So what will the people buy as software when they get a Switch this Holiday? Just Mario and old releases? Are you saying Switch will be another Wii U like situation where the hardware was selling but the software wasn't moving for new releases so it essentially became a Splatoon and Mario machine.

 

[Celine]

sinobi expects 120-150k LTD for Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 and gives shipments for the 3 PS Crash that are quite up from Famitsu estimates back then.

Crash Bandicoot - 1,20m
Crash Bandicoot 2: Cortex Strikes Back - 1,33m
Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped - 1,50m

Mmmh in the CESA White Paper the shipment LTD provided by SCE for the three Crash Bandicoot in the japanese market are:
Crash Bandicoot - less than 1,00m
Crash Bandicoot 2: Cortex Strikes Back - 1,33m
Crash Bandicoot 3: Warped - 1,45m

Not sure where Sinobi got his data...

EDIT:

I have the first Crash at 0.90m, but shipments for the other ones match with what I have.

Since I gave a quick glance to the data:
The Famitsu data you have in your site for VF2 also exceed the total shipment.
But it's normal since they are estimates.

 

[Principate]

So what will the people buy as software when they get a Switch this Holiday? Just Mario and old releases? Are you saying Switch will be another Wii U like situation where the hardware was selling but the software wasn't moving for new releases so it essentially became a Splatoon and Mario machine.

Most of the games Nintendo have released are evergreens and should get the usual Christmas bump. This is the opposite of the Wii u situation as those two games were literally the only major tites released that calender year.

 

[Mory Dunz]

So what will the people buy as software when they get a Switch this Holiday? Just Mario and old releases? Are you saying Switch will be another Wii U like situation where the hardware was selling but the software wasn't moving for new releases so it essentially became a Splatoon and Mario machine.

uh ok. that's weirdly dramatic.
I didn't say no new releases will respond to increased hw. I'm just not sure on Xeno. But if it breaks 250k that'd be cool.

 

[Datschge]

Do we have data for the growth of the mobile market in Japan over the past decade or so? Would be interesting to see this, and how much of that process encapsulates the 3DS lifetime.

This is the graph I posted previously:

"Online games" is mostly mobile, but includes browser and PC games as well. Hardware and software is for the dedicated gaming devices, making the change of the market clear to see. Mobile essentially accelerated when the DS/Wii craze subsided.

Since three years the mobile market is essentially "stagnating" at more than 3 times the size of the dedicated gaming device software.

 

[NintendosBooger]

I don't see it tbh.
But who knows

Neither do I.

If XB2 doesn't do well, I can see MonolithSoft being done with single-player driven jrpgs. They might transition to more co-op structured action adventure games. They have the muscle and experience to pull it off.

 

[Nirolak]

The above is also part of why we've seen a heavier push into overseas territories (usually China, South East Asia, South Korea, and the U.S.) with Japanese mobile games, because while the Japanese mobile market is gigantic, Japanese mobile companies are real go-getters who want more growth, and they can only do that domestically by taking market share.

Other regions still have strong growth going for them.

 

[Ōkami]

This wasn't supposed to go here.

 

[Oregano]

Neither do I.

If XB2 doesn't do well, I can see MonolithSoft being done with single-player driven jrpgs. They might transition to more co-op structured action adventure games. They have the muscle and experience to pull it off.

They're already hiring for some kind of online action game.

Spoiler

Something to appeal to the Hunting Action audience?