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[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

1 day for Project Diva f to top 1000 rankings, 4 days for Gravity Rush

GOD DAMN. Does anyone know how to estimate sales by using ratings? Velocity sold 100k but only has 435 ratings on psn. Even angry birds on android has over 100 million unique downloads and yet only about a million rated it.

 

[Spiegel]

GOD DAMN. Does anyone know how to estimate sales by using ratings? Velocity sold 100k but only has 435 ratings on psn. Even angry birds on android has over 100 million unique downloads and yet only about a million rated it.

If I were to guess, games with more rabid fanbases will have higher percentage of ratings/downloads, but we really can't conclude anything from this.

You can say that it seems to be doing good on PSN compared to most games though.

 

[Brazil]

GOD DAMN. Does anyone know how to estimate sales by using ratings? Velocity sold 100k but only has 435 ratings on psn. Even angry birds on android has over 100 million unique downloads and yet only about a million rated it.

There's no way to do that. We can throw out random guesses, but they don't really mean anything.

If we had the digital sales numbers and ratings numbers for... Say, a hundred different Vita retail games, that could be different, but I doubt we'll ever have this much information.

 

[Road]

Congratulations to Bruno MB for winning by units, and to Edge_Maverick, by percentage!

BY UNITS                             BY PERCENTAGE

  1   191,586 Bruno MB                  1   71.5% Edge_Maverick
  2   264,088 starship                  2   85.6% electroplankton
  3   284,088 Foshy                     3   87.4% Bruno MB
  4   294,088 electroplankton           4   93.0% Mr Swine
  5   319,088 eighty(one)               5   93.5% Foshy
  6   327,586 Edge_Maverick             6   95.7% twothunder
  7   332,030 Road                      7  126.6% starship
  8   332,586 watershed                 8  133.6% eighty(one)
  9   348,916 twothunder                9  134.4% Kandinsky
 10   429,582 Mr Swine                 10  134.4% Road
 11   501,088 cw_sasuke                11  141.5% Gianni Merryman
 12   507,586 Kenka                    12  143.1% watershed
 13   517,586 You Are Viewtiful        13  145.2% Aad
 14   524,088 Aad                      14  148.1% MasterSheen
 15   533,586 Gianni Merryman          15  149.7% Kenka
 16   534,088 terrisus                 16  151.1% Chris1964
 17   537,586 MasterSheen              17  152.3% cw_sasuke
 18   537,586 Salvadora                18  152.9% Orgen
 19   542,586 Kandinsky                19  157.1% muu
 20   563,088 Gamer @ Heart            20  158.3% metalslimer
 21   602,586 metalslimer              21  158.5% donny2112
 22   611,088 Orgen                    22  160.1% Gamer @ Heart
 23   616,586 Nekki                    23  164.9% You Are Viewtiful
 24   637,586 BY2K                     24  166.7% terrisus
 25   650,630 Chris1964                25  172.5% Salvadora
 26   654,088 disco                    26  173.2% Nekki
 27   674,088 Sadist                   27  181.5% BY2K
 28   687,586 muu                      28  188.6% Sadist
 29   699,088 Gaborn                   29  192.8% Tenki
 30   704,088 Michan                   30  194.0% Gaborn
 31   707,586 Linkhero1                31  194.2% schuelma
 32   712,586 schuelma                 32  196.2% Smiles and Cries
 33   737,586 Gradivus                 33  197.9% disco
 34   749,088 donny2112                34  198.2% Linkhero1
 35   774,088 Smiles and Cries         35  199.9% Yeshua
 36   819,814 Tenki                    36  201.2% Drago
 37   837,586 Yeshua                   37  207.1% Michan
 38   837,586 Drago                    38  207.2% Gradivus
 39   885,198 lunchwithyuzo            39  208.8% Currygan
 40   887,586 ULTROS!                  40  210.1% lunchwithyuzo
 41   961,088 Currygan                 41  228.2% ULTROS!
 42 1,174,586 Busaiku                  42  237.7% Busaiku
 43 1,624,088 Snowden's Secret         43  279.6% Snowden's Secret


                                Famitsu   You Are  MasterSh donny211 Foshy    cw_sasuk Aad      Orgen    Chris196 watershe electrop Snowden' Gianni M schuelma Salvador Linkhero BY2K     Yeshua   metalsli lunchwit Currygan terrisus  ULTROS! Smiles a eighty(o Drago    muu      Gamer @ Bruno M twothun Mr Swin Gradivu Tenki   Busaiku Gaborn  disco   starshi Kenka   Sadist  Nekki   Michan  Kandins Edge_Ma Road
[WII] Dragon Quest X              556,749   330000   400000   700000   610000   800000   650000   619000   765432   380000   650000  1000000   515000   525000   550000   550000   500000   350000   475000   666666   708000   650000   400000   600000   590000   550000   350000  847000  535000  376000  326000  500000  425524  347000  850000  800000  670000  401000  710000  450000  810000  320000  450000  444444
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2     583,665   800000   700000   775000   770000   777000   750000   827000   987654   650000   750000  1500000   782000  1100000  1000000  1150000  1000000   950000  1050000  1111111  1060000   950000  1200000  1100000   745000  1200000   700000  630000  699000  450000  765000 1150000  987789 1227000  825000  900000  620000  874000  940000  899000  950000  850000  790000  666666
[3DS] Demon Training               85,498   160000   350000   500000   130000   150000   350000   391000   123456   175000   120000   350000   379000   250000   200000   220000   250000   350000   140000   333333   419000   160000   200000   300000   210000   300000   450000  312000  140000  120000   68000  200000  369963  407000  250000  180000  200000  147000  250000  280000  170000  125000  100000  222222

UNIT DIFF                       1,225,912   517586   537586   749088   284088   501088   524088   611088   650630   332586   294088  1624088   533586   712586   537586   707586   637586   837586   602586   885198   961088   534088   887586   774088   319088   837586   687586  563088  191586  348916  429582  737586  819814 1174586  699088  654088  264088  507586  674088  616586  704088  542586  327586  332030

[WII] Dragon Quest X                    0  -226749  -156749   143251    53251   243251    93251    62251   208683  -176749    93251   443251   -41749   -31749    -6749    -6749   -56749  -206749   -81749   109917   151251    93251  -156749    43251    33251    -6749  -206749  290251  -21749 -180749 -230749  -56749 -131225 -209749  293251  243251  113251 -155749  153251 -106749  253251 -236749 -106749 -112305
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2           0   216335   116335   191335   186335   193335   166335   243335   403989    66335   166335   916335   198335   516335   416335   566335   416335   366335   466335   527446   476335   366335   616335   516335   161335   616335   116335   46335  115335 -133665  181335  566335  404124  643335  241335  316335   36335  290335  356335  315335  366335  266335  206335   83001
[3DS] Demon Training                    0    74502   264502   414502    44502    64502   264502   305502    37958    89502    34502   264502   293502   164502   114502   134502   164502   264502    54502   247835   333502    74502   114502   214502   124502   214502   364502  226502   54502   34502  -17498  114502  284465  321502  164502   94502  114502   61502  164502  194502   84502   39502   14502  136724

STATISTICS
                                 Famitsu  AVERAGE    MIN       MAX     OVER     UNDER   CLOSEST    BY
[WII] Dragon Quest X              556,749  561,536  320,000 1,000,000      44%      56%  550,000 Salvadora
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2     583,665  897,866  450,000 1,500,000      98%       2%  620,000 starship
[3DS] Demon Training               85,498  244,232   68,000   500,000      98%       2%  100,000 Edge_Maverick

I wish I knew why GAF adds a million empty, useless new lines at the end of the

 blocks.

 

[slaughterking]

GAF hugely overestimated NSMB2 and Oni Training.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

There seems to be a "movement" in Japanese gaming boards for gamers to rate their digital purchases. They are always checking PSN charts and posting results.

Also, Hatsune Miku is much more popular than Gravity Rush. I'm not impressed.

 

[electroplankton]

So Miku sold at least 1000 units in the first 24 hours? Wow!

 

[Spiegel]

There seems to be a "movement" in Japanese gaming boards for gamers to rate their digital purchases. They are always checking PSN charts and posting results.

How is checking PSN charts and posting results a "movement" for gamers to rate their digital purchases?

No, that's not a movement.

 

[extralite]

GOD DAMN. Does anyone know how to estimate sales by using ratings? Velocity sold 100k but only has 435 ratings on psn. Even angry birds on android has over 100 million unique downloads and yet only about a million rated it.

On the eShop the number one selling game (PMARS) has less ratings (~8000 when I checked a few weeks back) than the number two selling one (Denpa Ningen No RPG, almost 20000). So there's really no way to estimate numbers from ratings I think, apart from knowing they at least sold as much.

 

[Datschge]

I wish I knew why GAF adds a million empty, useless new lines at the end of the

 blocks.[/QUOTE]

It doesn't. It tries to pre-calculate a fixed height for the code block instead setting it to the height of the actual content. Guess that was done due to bad IE compatibility or something...

 

[Chris1964]

More Famitsu software comparisons

After 9 months (Dec Y1 -Aug Y2)

NDS: 6.2M
PSP: 3.1M
PSV: 1.5M

After 18 months (Feb/Mar Y1-Aug/Sep Y2)

PS2: 20.6M
GBA: 13.2M
3DS: 16.6M

 

[Bruno MB]

Congratulations to Bruno MB for winning by units, and to Edge_Maverick, by percentage!

Thanks

It's amazing how we nailed Dragon Quest X: Famitsu 556,749 - GAF average 561,536.

New Super Mario Bros. 2 only managed to sell a paltry 583,665 units sold in its first full month of sales. It's even worse when we take into account there was the Obon festival. Another point is that its launch week (not included in the prediction for August) only consisted of 2 days, so the game had the advantage to have a better than usual second week.

When I made my prediction I had the impression that I was very conservative yet I overestimate by 20%.

 

[EightBitNate]

How much time you reckon till the Vita passes the 360 over there

 

[LayLa]

How much time you reckon till the Vita passes the 360 over there

hard to tell with holiday bumps, price cuts, game announcements etc

for a very rough metric though
Vita average of 15000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 49 weeks time i.e. August 2013
Vita average of 25000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 29 weeks time i.e. March 2013
Vita average of 40000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 18 weeks time i.e. December 2012

 

[Kenka]

Argh, missed the top 10.

I'll be back.

 

[Takao]

hard to tell with holiday bumps, price cuts, game announcements etc

for a very rough metric though
Vita average of 15000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 49 weeks time i.e. August 2013
Vita average of 25000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 29 weeks time i.e. March 2013
Vita average of 40000 a week, 360 average of 1000 a week = 18 weeks time i.e. December 2012

Unless Kawano and crew are holding onto some super gigantic announcements for TGS Vita's probably not meeting any of those numbers until a substantial price cut, and that won't be in 2012.

 

[BishopLamont]

Thanks

It's amazing how we nailed Dragon Quest X: Famitsu 556,749 - GAF average 561,536.

New Super Mario Bros. 2 only managed to sell a paltry 583,665 units sold in its first full month of sales. It's even worse when we take into account there was the Obon festival. Another point is that its launch week (not included in the prediction for August) only consisted of 2 days, so the game had the advantage to have a better than usual second week.

When I made my prediction I had the impression that I was very conservative yet I overestimate by 20%.

It hasn't been a full month for NSMB2 yet..

 

[Nekki]

Damn i overestimated mario A LOT. Times have changed :S

 

[Bruno MB]

It hasn't been a full month for NSMB2 yet..

Well, I should have said: in the following four weeks after its launch...

 

[Road]

It doesn't. It tries to pre-calculate a fixed height for the code block instead setting it to the height of the actual content. Guess that was done due to bad IE compatibility or something...

Not following. Mind explaining it again? /dumb

Famitsu Wii Top 10 first weeks with LTD up to 08/05.

[B] 936,734 [/B]/ 4,453,170 [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii                                       (Nintendo)   {2009-12-03}
[B] 816,198 [/B]/ 2,170,262 [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl                                         (Nintendo)   {2008-01-31}
[B] 608,147 [/B]/ 3,538,931 [WII] Mario Kart Wii                                                  (Nintendo)   {2008-04-10}
[B] 582,548 [/B]/ 1,077,273 [WII] Monster Hunter Tri                                              (Capcom)     {2009-08-01}
[B] 420,311 [/B]/   420,311 [WII] Dragon Quest X: Mezameshi Itsusu no Shuzoku Online              (Square Enix){2012-08-02}
[B] 353,827 [/B]/ 2,946,049 [WII] Wii Sports Resort                                               (Nintendo)   {2009-06-25}
[B] 337,569 [/B]/ 1,025,126 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2                                            (Nintendo)   {2010-05-27}
[B] 318,755 [/B]/ 2,382,722 [WII] Wii Fit Plus                                                    (Nintendo)   {2009-10-01}
[B] 303,204 [/B]/ 1,221,459 [WII] Animal Crossing: City Folk                                      (Nintendo)   {2008-11-20}
[B] 302,066 [/B]/   489,112 [WII] Dragon Quest Swords: The Masked Queen and the Tower of Mirrors  (Square Enix){2007-07-12}

[url]http://www.famitsu.com/guc/blog/media/filter/l/transfer/img/11968/50338abe-1974-48b9-b0f4-1d95ca5ab6a9.jpg[/url]

 

[airmangataosenai]

I realize that people will argue that Amazon isn't great for predicting success, but I was pretty shocked to see RE4 at number 1 a month away from release. Last I saw the Comgnet numbers are low though, like to the level of something that would do sub-500k at launch which sounds impossible to me given how Raccoon City performed. Did they change their methodology ever?

 

[Jonnyram]

There seems to be a "movement" in Japanese gaming boards for gamers to rate their digital purchases. They are always checking PSN charts and posting results.

Which Japanese gaming boards are these?

 

[BishopLamont]

I realize that people will argue that Amazon isn't great for predicting success, but I was pretty shocked to see RE4 at number 1 a month away from release. Last I saw the Comgnet numbers are low though, like to the level of something that would do sub-500k at launch which sounds impossible to me given how Raccoon City performed. Did they change their methodology ever?

What...

Well, I should have said: in the following four weeks after its launch...

My bad, I have no idea what I was thinking, it has been a full month since its release.

 

[Road]

What...

He's posting from 2004?

I realize that people will argue that Amazon isn't great for predicting success, but I was pretty shocked to see RE4 at number 1 a month away from release. Last I saw the Comgnet numbers are low though, like to the level of something that would do sub-500k at launch which sounds impossible to me given how Raccoon City performed. Did they change their methodology ever?

One month away from release:

ORC - 141pt (ps3) + ?? (360)
RE5 - 316pt (ps3) + 49 (360)
RE6 - 402pt (ps3) + ??(<20) (360)

But it's still a month away from release.

Also:

RE5 had 663pt (ps3) on release and sold 321k.
ORC had 321pt (ps3) and sold 246k.

Even though ORC had less than half of the points on COMGNET, it sold 77% of what RE6 did.

The point is: don't overthink COMGNET. We can't know exactly how much will RE6 sell on its first week based on it alone.

 

[Kandinsky]

I keep ranking above Chris1964, feels good man

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Which Japanese gaming boards are these?

The one you lurk, and blogs as well.

But anyway, I see people reporting "PSN Ratings" as news, so I think, in a figure of speech, that there's a "movement" going on, or an incentive, for people to rate their digital games.

That's how I see it.

 

[metalslimer]

NSMB2.....eh well nsmbu will be interesting. Nintendo better pray they havent reached mario saturation.

 

[electroplankton]

I'm always pretty good in predicting all the stuffs

 

[Datschge]

Not following. Mind explaining it again? /dumb

OT: The correct way to make the code block fit with the content in HTML would be using some CSS "height" attribute like "auto" or "100%", in these cases the browser would make it fit themselves. Instead the vbulletin plugin (or whatever it is) tries to calculate the height based on the number of lines (without knowing the actually used line height apparently) and sets it to some fixed "px" pixel value. /OT

 

[Mpl90]

https://twitter.com/senran_kaguraPR/status/242931133518598144

Senran Kagura: Burst's first week is better than Senran Kagura's one. Probably it's referring to shipped, but tomorrow we'll see the datas.

 

[Nekki]

I keep ranking above Chris1964, feels good man

I like to think he lets us win

https://twitter.com/senran_kaguraPR/...31133518598144

Senran Kagura: Burst's first week is better than Senran Kagura's one. Probably it's referring to shipped, but tomorrow we'll see the datas.

That's nice. More goodwill towards 3DS is always good hehe.

 

[Chris1964]

This is Senran Kagura's opening week

[3DS] Senran Kagura: Shoujotachi no Shinei <ACT> (Marvelous Entertainment) {2011.09.22} (¥5.980) - 52.206 / 52.206 <86,25%>

 

[smbu2000]

https://twitter.com/senran_kaguraPR/status/242931133518598144

Senran Kagura: Burst's first week is better than Senran Kagura's one. Probably it's referring to shipped, but tomorrow we'll see the datas.

Would be nice if they're referring to sales. I just picked up the game today so my copy won't be included in the first week numbers.

My copy of Soul Hackers will be included though! I hope it does well.

 

[hiska-kun]

Mpl90 or someone else should update the opening post.

 

[BishopLamont]

The first Senran probably did at least 80k LTD, so a first week of 80-100k would be nice. Nice little catch for Marvelous.

 

[noobie]

GOD DAMN. Does anyone know how to estimate sales by using ratings? Velocity sold 100k but only has 435 ratings on psn. Even angry birds on android has over 100 million unique downloads and yet only about a million rated it.

i think 1 rating for every 20 download is a reasonable estimate.. So it has sold atleast 20k.

 

[hiska-kun]

The first Senran probably did at least 80k LTD, so a first week of 80-100k would be nice. Nice little catch for Marvelous.

Media Create (Feb 05 2012):

[3DS] Senran Kagura: Shoujotachi no Shinei (Marvelous Entertainment) {2011.09.22} (¥5.980) - 52.206 / 90.348

 

[michaelius]

1 in 4 or 1 in 5 would be much more resonable - iirc Gravity daze had over 4k rating and is estimated to sell 20-30k digitally.

 

[Leezard]

i think 1 rating for every 20 download is a reasonable estimate.. So it might have sold 20k.

Dangerous territory has been entered. Quote fixed to be more reasonable.

 

[Road]

Famitsu: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201209/05020723.html

Media Create: http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20120905054/

 

[Alrus]

Woah I completely underestimated Miku, that's a pretty great number.

 

[DrWong]

Famitsu: http://www.famitsu.com/news/201209/05020723.html

Media Create: http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20120905054/

Oh god...

 

[hongcha]

Wow, Vita wins the hardware with 50k.

 

[slaughterking]

Project Diva: 158009
Vita&#65306;46,877

Soul Hackers: 73690
Senran Kagura: 70569
Gundam Age: 32782

 

[Mpl90]

Holy shit at Hatsune Miku.
HOLY SHIT AT VITA, ALMOST 50k!

 

[hongcha]

HOLY SHIT AT VITA, ALMOST 50k!

It's over 50k on the media create chart.

 

[mclem]

Miku really is a *powerful* franchise.

 

[Taker666]

Wow, Vita wins the hardware with 50k.

Not when you combine the 3DS + 3DS XL.

Still a surprisingly large boost for Vita.

 

[milanbaros]

Wow, Vita wins the hardware with 50k.

You forgot to combine the 3DS skus. Still great for Vita though.

 

[BadWolf]

Holy shit at Hatsune Miku.
HOLY SHIT AT VITA, ALMOST 50k!

Wow, guess software really is Vita's biggest weakness.

When there's good stuff the systems sells (obvious I know but tell that to Sony).