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[DGRE]

I clearly see the point you're making Nirolak. The entire industry is in a major slump and there just isn't much in the pipelines for handhelds coming from Japan, or the west really. Hopefully f2p experiences a worldwide crash and we can move on from this awkward point in gaming.

 

[schuelma]

I clearly see the point you're making Nirolak. The entire industry is in a major slump and there just isn't much in the pipelines for handhelds coming from Japan, or the west really. Hopefully f2p experiences a worldwide crash and we can move on from this awkward point in gaming.

Have to remember we are also transitioning into the next generation. I imagine there is a lot of stuff behind the scenes for Wii U/PS4, and probably some Vita stuff in limbo.

 

[Nirolak]

3ds 3rd party lineup looks underwhelming especially compared to the DS 3rd party lineup which had a good amount of different and new titles. Many new ips , revivals, remakes and spin offs. I think the huge thing is that japanese developers are spread to thin. S-E is tied up in development with Versus, DQX, FF13-3, and FF14. L5 has seen severe decline in its franchises. Segas already been said. Konamis busy greenlighting more MGS titles.

I clearly see the point you're making Nirolak. The entire industry is in a major slump and there just isn't much in the pipelines for handhelds coming from Japan, or the west really. Hopefully f2p experiences a worldwide crash and we can move on from this awkward point in gaming.

I feel it's really unfortunate because I really loved the DS line-up and felt that even the PSP stood fairly strong in the end, but this generation it is almost like the console meltdown Japan faced has now spread on to handhelds.

It's not completely dire, but it seems to be looking worse and worse as time goes on, which isn't a comforting thing.

Have to remember we are also transitioning into the next generation. I imagine there is a lot of stuff behind the scenes for Wii U/PS4, and probably some Vita stuff in limbo.

I've been having quite a few (very) length discussions with duckroll and charlequin on the state of the third party Japanese industry. Now, I don't want to say anything for them, but the impression I came away with from those talks is that really, at least on the handheld side, I feel like we should have been past the DS/PSP -> 3DS/Vita transition period, but in many ways the line-up still feels like a system in its first year.

There are some improvements on the console front with things like Ground Zeroes, and Capcom has maintained its strength on all platforms, but for the most part things just seem to be falling apart at almost every visible angle.

I mean, who would have honestly believed that Square Enix's current handheld line-up would consist of a grand total of Bravely Default and Gyrozetter?

How many people would have guessed that Konami and Sega's line-ups would almost completely disappear?

I do think we're seeing some impact from social games however. There is no portable Metal Gear announced, and it doesn't seem likely that there is one in development, but there is a ~PSP-tier Metal Gear game coming out for GREE. We also see developers like Media.Vision and Witchcraft, who would presumably be making games for the PSP last generation, showing up with original RPGs on iOS. Then of course there's just the complete implosion of independent studios like tri-Ace.

I'm not sure that's the core of the issue though. It just feels like we're seeing so much less volume coming out, and with a few exceptions, much less ambition as well.

I was hoping that when I first started seeing this it was just end of generation doldrums, but we're now in like year 3-4 of this and I'm having trouble believing it's all just the effect of generation transitions.

 

[schuelma]

I've been having quite a few (very) length discussions with duckroll and charlequin on the state of the Japanese industry. Now, I don't want to say anything for them, but the impression I came away with from those talks is that really, at least on the handheld side, I feel like we should have been past the DS/PSP -> 3DS/Vita transition period, but in many ways the line-up still feels like a system in its first year.

There are some improvements on the console front with things like Ground Zeroes, and Capcom has maintained its strength, but for the most part things just seem to be falling apart at almost every visible angle.

I mean, who would have honestly believed that Square Enix's current handheld line-up would consist of a grand total of Bravely Default and Gyrozetter?

How many people would have guessed that Konami and Sega's line-ups would almost completely disappear?

I do think we're seeing some impact from social games however. There is no portable Metal Gear announced, and it doesn't seem likely that there is one in development, but there is a ~PSP-tier Metal Gear game coming out for GREE. We also see developers like Media.Vision and Witchcraft, who would presumably be making games for the PSP last generation, showing up with original RPGs on iOS. Then of course there's just the complete implosion of independent studios like tri-Ace.

I'm not sure that's the core of the issue though. It just feels like we're seeing so much less volume coming out, and with a few exceptions, much less ambition as well.

I was hoping that when I first started seeing this it was just end of generation doldrums, but we're now in like year 3-4 of this and I'm having trouble believing it's all just the effect of generation transitions.

You know that is really interesting. I guess I kind of just looked at the big 3DS releases and assumed things were going great. But if you step back, someone like SE really is almost completely absent right now.

3DS started out with a lot of big franchises- maybe we are in a bit of a lull between development?

Very interesting, that is for sure.

 

[Exterminieren]

I think SE is somewhat understandable; development at that company is in an absolute state. Looking at their TGS booth plan, they're barely anywhere, never mind 3DS.

I do think there might be something in the lull in releases idea; I mean, 3DS has had Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid games in a very short space of time.

 

[Man God]

It's still really early. This is basically comparable to Fall 2006's DS library, which while good certainly doesn't have the same great depth of games that the 3DS has built in the same time frame.

 

[Boney]

So, I was having a sales-age discussion about TGS with some other mods and we stumbled upon an honest question, so I'm curious if we missed anything. Since I'm also curious to see what comes to people's minds, I won't list what we came up with so far.

Question: What Japanese developed third party games for the 3DS are likely to sell over 200K? You can include games releasing at any time in the future, as long as they are Japanese developed, announced, and third party.

What I was thinking the other day was that after E3 2010 major blow out, where many games where announced and released that year and other games (just 3ds ones) have yet to release. There hasn't been major announcements from Nintendo other than the mario games and a few wiiu games (nsmbu and pikmin 3). Of course minor surprises have been shown from lm2, fe, brain age and style saavy. But this year has come and gone without any major announcements, which could be atributed to just how they prefer their calendar or software development problems, so I won't comment if it's indeed troubling or not.

And even though this is just a first party analisis, this could also hold true to the third party situation, E3 came with major announcements and then it was silence until tgs 2011 with major and minor announcements, most of them already released. So this year we've had a couple of surprises like AA5, SMT and Layton, but it feels like it's running short, although I could just be being ignorant.

Well tgs could still bring forth announcements, but for the near future, lineup just comes of as anemic, Animal Crossing and MH4 not withstanding
Perhaps they're waiting for next gen consoles blowout?

 

[Lord_Byron28]

You know that is really interesting. I guess I kind of just looked at the big 3DS releases and assumed things were going great. But if you step back, someone like SE really is almost completely absent right now.

3DS started out with a lot of big franchises- maybe we are in a bit of a lull between development?

Very interesting, that is for sure.

Well the other thing is some of these titles were anounced when the system was unveiled and they are just now releasing.

I think SE is somewhat understandable; development at that company is in an absolute state. Looking at their TGS booth plan, they're barely anywhere, never mind 3DS.

I do think there might be something in the lull in releases idea; I mean, 3DS has had Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid games in a very short space of time.

Well that MGS titles effort was laughable. On top of all 3 bombing.

 

[Nirolak]

Perhaps they're waiting for next gen consoles blowout?

While not necessarily next-generation in a literal sense, I do think the console market polarization to huge titles is having a major effect.

I mean, there are over 300 Square Enix Japan staff on Final Fantasy XIV. That's honestly probably enough people to make 10 pretty good handheld titles simultaneously.

Apply this concept to a couple of companies, and you've soaked up a huge number of staff on very few titles.

It's still really early. This is basically comparable to Fall 2006's DS library, which while good certainly doesn't have the same great depth of games that the 3DS has built in the same time frame.

Out of curiosity, how was the PSP line-up at the time? I ask this mainly since the 3DS has to make up for both of them.

 

[thestopsign]

I'm thinking we'll see the next round of 3rd party titles in the coming months. That might be it for the holidays, but there should be some decent ones for the first half of next year.

 

[Boney]

So your thesis is that expanding budgets and in some specific cases, bad managements, has them instead of chasing down the middle road with handhelds, opting to allocate their leftover resources into the mobile/social scene?

Just like western studios I suppose.

 

[jman2050]

There's only so much money to be made in the F2P market and I think it's going to take a bit of time for companies to realize that chasing a market of questionable sustainability and which is ALREADY oversaturated to the point of absurdity might not be the best allocation of resources.

 

[Dalthien]

How many people would have guessed that Konami and Sega's line-ups would almost completely disappear?

Without getting into the rest of the stuff you discussed (much of which I agree with), you can totally put me down as someone who would have guessed this about Konami and Sega. Konami has been in the process of pulling out of traditional gaming for a long time now. They're basically down to Metal Gear and Winning Eleven as their only major franchises anymore, and Winning Eleven has even been in decline for a while.

And Sega has been a cancer on Sammy's ass for years now. What has happened to Sega is not a surprise in the least. I'm actually more surprised at just how long Sammy let Sega keep operating this way before finally stepping in and taking some action to stop the bleeding.

While not necessarily next-generation in a literal sense, I do think the console market polarization to huge titles is having a major effect.

I mean, there are over 300 Square Enix Japan staff on Final Fantasy XIV. That's honestly probably enough people to make 10 pretty good handheld titles simultaneously.

Apply this concept to a couple of companies, and you've soaked up a huge number of staff on very few titles.

Yeah, SE seems to have been overwhelmed with Final Fantasy lately. Between the FFXIII sequels, Versus, FFXIV, and hell, they're still working on FFXI. That's a shitload of SE's manpower tied up in Final Fantasy these past couple years. Doesn't really leave a lot of room for a full slate of other projects.

 

[Nirolak]

So your thesis is that expanding budgets and in some specific cases, bad managements, has them instead of chasing down the middle road with handhelds, opting to allocate their leftover resources into the mobile/social scene?

Just like western studios I suppose.

Yeah, and I think it helps that some mobile companies have huge divisions they can essentially contract with to get mobile games done, while Nintendo and Sony don't have like 400 people laying around who can make games with your IPs.

Without getting into the rest of the stuff you discussed (much of which I agree with), you can totally put me down as someone who would have guessed this about Konami and Sega. Konami has been in the process of pulling out of traditional gaming for a long time now. They're basically down to Metal Gear and Winning Eleven as their only major franchises anymore, and Winning Eleven has even been in decline for a while.

And Sega has been a cancer on Sammy's ass for years now. What has happened to Sega is not a surprise in the least. I'm actually more surprised at just how long Sammy let Sega keep operating this way before finally stepping in and taking some action to stop the bleeding.

Yeah, I actually had stronger wording originally, but went with "how many" before I posted since they weren't especially healthy companies in their gaming divisions.

Their nigh complete disappearance however was a bit beyond my personal decline expectations however.

There's only so much money to be made in the F2P market and I think it's going to take a bit of time for companies to realize that chasing a market of questionable sustainability and which is ALREADY oversaturated to the point of absurdity might not be the best allocation of resources.

I think the other side of the coin however is that they would not only have to believe that mobile games were a bad idea, but that they were a worse idea than making lots of handheld games.

If all the major Japanese publishers were all making money hand over fist on handhelds, I don't think we would see the current trends.

I mean, compare the performance of Dragon Collection and Peace Walker, much less Beyond the Labyrinth. It's not too hard to see why Konami made the choice they did.

 

[metalslimer]

The thing is many of Square Enix's iOS lineup would have been on handhelds in the previous generation. Same thing for many other Japanese publishers. The 3DS is selling pretty well, but the amount of resources being dedicated to it is not what it should be. I have to say that the mediocre performance of the system in western region probably factors a lot into it. Games are more expensive to make on the 3DS and it doesn't seem like the 3DS is going to be a goldmine for 3rd party games in the west, so it makes sense. In this sense, the 3DS is more like the PSP (not that great of a comparison) than the DS.

 

[charlequin]

charlequin's back! Dude's been missing from these threads forever. Welcome back!

I got busy, lulz.

I agree with you, but I think it's not what really happened, if you see the rumor list of last year TGS, you see that MHP3HD was a launch game for the Vita.

Monster Hunter Vita was never a real thing. We've had plenty of time now and no information has emerged whatsoever to suggest that it ever existed in even the earliest stages. It never made sense to exist, the 3DS was a significantly better platform choice (and Capcom were never going to take the series multiplat and thereby screw up local multi.) It wasn't a moneyhat.

In short:

MH is simply too big to moneyhat

 

[Man God]

Fall '06 for the PSP was pretty barren still. It's a year before Crisis Core. I think the big game that fall in Japan was the Disgaea 1 port. The only game I remember getting that year was Gitaroo Man Lives.

If you count the US this is right around the time Vice City Stories hit.

Portable Ops would come out in December.

 

[charlequin]

Now, I don't want to say anything for them, but the impression I came away with from those talks is that really, at least on the handheld side, I feel like we should have been past the DS/PSP -> 3DS/Vita transition period, but in many ways the line-up still feels like a system in its first year.

To not only cosign but kind of further shore up this position: I honestly can't remember a single time in the course of last handheld generation (literally, from day one to the very last releases on each platform) where there were exactly zero Japanese titles with announced English releases that I was interested in buying across both handhelds.

 

[Man God]

To not only cosign but kind of further shore up this position: I honestly can't remember a single time in the course of last handheld generation (literally, from day one to the very last releases on each platform) where there were exactly zero Japanese titles with announced English releases that I was interested in buying across both handhelds.

Pfft that's just because Atlus USA hasn't announced EO IV yet!

 

[AranhaHunter]

I've been having quite a few (very) length discussions with duckroll and charlequin on the state of the third party Japanese industry. Now, I don't want to say anything for them, but the impression I came away with from those talks is that really, at least on the handheld side, I feel like we should have been past the DS/PSP -> 3DS/Vita transition period, but in many ways the line-up still feels like a system in its first year.

There are some improvements on the console front with things like Ground Zeroes, and Capcom has maintained its strength on all platforms, but for the most part things just seem to be falling apart at almost every visible angle.

I mean, who would have honestly believed that Square Enix's current handheld line-up would consist of a grand total of Bravely Default and Gyrozetter?

How many people would have guessed that Konami and Sega's line-ups would almost completely disappear?

I do think we're seeing some impact from social games however. There is no portable Metal Gear announced, and it doesn't seem likely that there is one in development, but there is a ~PSP-tier Metal Gear game coming out for GREE. We also see developers like Media.Vision and Witchcraft, who would presumably be making games for the PSP last generation, showing up with original RPGs on iOS. Then of course there's just the complete implosion of independent studios like tri-Ace.

I'm not sure that's the core of the issue though. It just feels like we're seeing so much less volume coming out, and with a few exceptions, much less ambition as well.

I was hoping that when I first started seeing this it was just end of generation doldrums, but we're now in like year 3-4 of this and I'm having trouble believing it's all just the effect of generation transitions.

Didn't they release a DQM on 3DS?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Didn't they release a DQM on 3DS?

A remake of the first gameboy title which has yet to break 1M.

RE: Bravely Default; I'm honestly not feeling more than 130K for this title - however, with things like Fire Emblem selling ridiculously well and there not being that many RPGs on the system yet, I could be surprised.

 

[LOCK]

And I feel like Sony just gave Nintendo Japan, for the rest of the year at least...

 

[metalslimer]

So what exactly is Vita's lineup for the rest of the year because I think I might be going crazy and there are no games that will even break 100k. That....wow

 

[Man God]

So what exactly is Vita's lineup for the rest of the year because I think I might be going crazy and there are no games that will even break 100k. That....wow

 

[Father_Brain]

I'll just C&P my initial reaction to the Sony conference:

Been saying since early this year that this was Sony's last chance to announce system-selling Vita software for the region. As this conference confirmed, they have nothing upcoming that's likely to sell much over 200K, if that.

It's now completely safe to say that there will never be a Vita turnaround in Japan, though some of the more defensive fans of the system will continue to deny it for a while longer. And barring a CoD/AC-driven sales miracle this holiday, there won't be one in the West, either.

Unless the latter miracle happens, I think the odds are 75% or so that Sony will completely pull the plug before this thing sees a second worldwide holiday season, and nonexistent that they'll ride it out beyond spring 2014 at the absolute latest.

 

[Alrus]

So what exactly is Vita's lineup for the rest of the year because I think I might be going crazy and there are no games that will even break 100k. That....wow

There is nothing of worth releasing for the holidays as far as japan goes. It's pretty damn sad.

Also their MH clone is releasing in Spring 2013, around the same time as MH4. It's going to get crushed :/

New games announced are a port of a Wii game that sold around 75k (it's really pretty though), a sequel to a series whose entries have a sold a combined 198k on a much healthier platform, and a sequel/port of a previously 3DS only series that sells okay. None of those will help much :/

 

[LOCK]

lmao

This gets me every time.

 

[metalslimer]

I'll just C&P my initial reaction to the Sony conference:

Been saying since early this year that this was Sony's last chance to announce system-selling Vita software for the region. As this conference confirmed, they have nothing upcoming that's likely to sell much over 200K, if that.

It's now completely safe to say that there will never be a Vita turnaround in Japan, though some of the more defensive fans of the system will continue to deny it for a while longer. And barring a CoD/AC-driven sales miracle this holiday, there won't be one in the West, either.

Unless the latter miracle happens, I think the odds are 75% or so that Sony will completely pull the plug before this thing sees a second worldwide holiday season, and nonexistent that they'll ride it out beyond spring 2014 at the absolute latest.

I still say they won't discontinue until after PS4 is out as it would cause too much heat. I think we've seen the last of Sony internal developed games that are coming out for the thing though. After tearaway and killzone they'll just let it wither on store shelves.

 

[LOCK]

When they announced the prices for the new slim, I immediately thought that they were going to drop the Vita price and use the PS3 to recoup their money.

Boy was I wrong.

 

[Forever]

I still say they won't discontinue until after PS4 is out as it would cause too much heat. I think we've seen the last of Sony internal developed games that are coming out for the thing though. After tearaway and killzone they'll just let it wither on store shelves.

If it just withers then stores will stop carrying it and you'll damage credibility as badly as if you had just cancelled it.

 

[Father_Brain]

I still say they won't discontinue until after PS4 is out as it would cause too much heat. I think we've seen the last of Sony internal developed games that are coming out for the thing though. After tearaway and killzone they'll just let it wither on store shelves.

Not impossible, though retail realities make it a bit implausible, but I just don't agree that killing Vita would have any major impact on PS4. It'll be quickly forgotten by all but the tiny niche that bought it in the first place.

It's not like PS3, where third parties had invested so much in the platform upfront that its outright failure could have had genuinely devastating consequences.

 

[metalslimer]

Not impossible, though retail realities make it a bit implausible, but I just don't agree that killing Vita would have any major impact on PS4. It'll be quickly forgotten by all but the tiny niche that bought it in the first place.

The news of Sony discontinuing a product they pull billions of R&D into I think would hurt their credibility with investors. It wouldn't be a devastating blow to them financially, but just the negative stigma it would cause would not be good going into the PS4

 

[allan-bh]

Vita is doomed for 2012, TGS don't brought hope.

2 new colors and a weak line up= Low sales.

 

[saichi]

Vita is doomed for 2012, TGS don't brought hope.

2 new colors and a weak line up= Low sales.

2013 doesn't look that much better either.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Not impossible, though retail realities make it a bit implausible, but I just don't agree that killing Vita would have any major impact on PS4. It'll be quickly forgotten by all but the tiny niche that bought it in the first place.

I disagree about it being forgotten. It was a large and clear cut push as a handheld competitor. After the PSP Go and Vita failure it may be an exit of the handheld business from Sony.

 

[metalslimer]

I disagree about it being forgotten. It was a large and clear cut push as a handheld competitor. After the PSP Go and Vita failure it may be an exit of the handheld business from Sony.

I don't think there is any question Sony is done in the dedicated handheld market. They can't just up and release a new platform any time soon. They will refocus to PS Mobile.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Yeah the Vita is pretty dead and the 3DS' upcoming game lineup does not inspire.

Gaming is not in a great place right now, really...Sega giving up on retail releases would be really sad.

 

[Takao]

Yeah, I'm not certain Vita will even see holiday 2013.

 

[magash]

Sony has sooo much to do its practically impossible for them to come out with a clear strategy that will aid them in getting out of the mess that they find themselves in.

The lack of any substantial game announcements at their recently concluded TGS conference is pretty much confirmation as far as I am concerned that Nintendo has Japan now. To make matters worse the new PS3 slim is launching at virtually the same price as a Wii U. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo announces a Nintendo Direct soon just to troll Sony.

 

[Vic]

The news of Sony discontinuing a product they pull billions of R&D into I think would hurt their credibility with investors. It wouldn't be a devastating blow to them financially, but just the negative stigma it would cause would not be good going into the PS4

I'll say that it is inevitable that the viability of the PS4 will be questioned regardless of if the Vita is cancelled before or after the console is launched.

 

[MasterSheen]

Vita's last chance for redemption.... gone.

Spoiler

this year anyway

 

[Nirolak]

Didn't they release a DQM on 3DS?

Currently announced line-up going forward.

 

[StreetsAhead]

This time next year 3DS will have, in addition to now, at least:

MonHun 4
Megaten 4
Fantasy Life
Bravely Default
Paper Mario
Luigi's Mansion
Animal Crossing
Friend Connection
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Castlevania: LoS: MoF
Epic Mickey: CoI
AKB48+Me
Inazuma Collection
EX Troopers
Prof Layton VS Ace Attorney
New Prof Layton
Ace Attorney 5

It'd be tough for a healthy platform to compete with that.

 

[Beth Cyra]

This time next year 3DS will have, in addition to now, at least:

MonHun 4
Megaten 4
Fantasy Life
Bravely Default
Paper Mario
Luigi's Mansion
Animal Crossing
Friend Connection
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Castlevania: LoS
Epic Mickey: CoI
AKB48+Me
Inazuma Collection
EX Troopers
Prof Layton VS Ace Attorney
New Prof Layton
Ace Attorney 4

It'd be tough for a healthy platform to compete with that.

Given how I asked that, I had no right to do so haha.

Still the line up is looking alright to me. Wish it was a bit more meaty in some areas but I've seen worse.

 

[StreetsAhead]

On purprose or a miss type?

Mistype

 

[Man God]

Yeah, I'm not certain Vita will even see holiday 2013.

Wow, this is the first time I've seen you this down since you've been banned.

I think early 2013 looks ok and they could easily make it another year or two with a healthy pricedrop.

 

[cw_sasuke]

2012 Vita holiday season is such a joke - even Soul Sacrifice wont be there to rescue the system. Wow...Sony...

 

[MasterSheen]

We could possibly see gen 6 Pokemon games next year.

 

[Anth0ny]

This time next year 3DS will have, in addition to now, at least:

MonHun 4
Megaten 4
Fantasy Life
Bravely Default
Paper Mario
Luigi's Mansion
Animal Crossing
Friend Connection
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Castlevania: LoS: MoF
Epic Mickey: CoI
AKB48+Me
Inazuma Collection
EX Troopers
Prof Layton VS Ace Attorney
New Prof Layton
Ace Attorney 5

It'd be tough for a healthy platform to compete with that.

It's also not out of the realm of possibility that 3DS will have its first mainline Pokemon games in September 2013.

yeahhhhhhh

edit: ninja'd

 

[StreetsAhead]

Still the line up is looking alright to me. Wish it was a bit more meaty in some areas but I've seen worse.

Hopefully stuff is announced at TGS then...

We could possibly see gen 6 Pokemon games next year.

It's also not out of the realm of possibility that 3DS will have its first mainline Pokemon games in September 2013.

yeahhhhhhh

edit: ninja'd

I had it in the list, but Pokemon games ususally come out the last week f September, so I figured it really wasn't 'this time next year'.

My bet is for Sept 26th 2013. BW sequel (a la Johto). 120 new Pokemon, many evos/alt evos, pre-evos of Gen 5 Pokemon. 3D battles and character models (in/out of battle), but maintaining top-down perspective in overworld. New Pokemon announced in Feb for 2013 movie, with new games announced in April, both in Corocoro, naturally.