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Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Herb Alpert
Banned
You know this applies to almost every sequels?
Yeah and sequels which are exclusive to platforms which are struggling and have nothing else to offer generally do really badly. He's right.
Nintendo needs big titles to push WiiU sales, but they're going to have a hard time convincing people to buy into the system when there's really nothing else on the platform.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
N64 stuff there is just from the Famitsu year-end lists, so that would be where it stood at the end of 1996.
Super Mario 64
Super Mario Sunshine
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Mario Galaxy 2
Super Mario 3D Land
With the exception of Galaxy 2 which was the second 3D Mario on the same console I don't see any similarities between the other games.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Great numbers here.
If Mario 3D has a 100K opening that would be extremely disappointing relative to how well the game previously have done. LTD of 300k-400k is terrible for one of WiiU's big system sellers/ software releases.
It needs to open with 200k+ and that is looking quite unlikely at this moment.
Magicpaint
Member
It's hard to know if 3D Land did as well as it did because it was a handheld game or because of how much closer to the 2D games it was than the other 3D Marios. Perhaps a bit of both, but it became the best selling 3D Mario game in Japan -- and since 3D World is using it as a template it will be interesting to see how it performs (then again it's almost certainly guaranteed to be limited by userbase of the platform its own). Anything less than 500K LTD must be seen as a massive disappointment.
I think one of the major issues the Wii U is going to have in Japan moving forward is the fact that all of Nintendo's upcoming system saving titles were titles that didn't do much to save the N64 or Gamecube. 3D World is shaping up to be a small blip on the radar, not much more significant than Pikmin 3. I'm sure that Mario Kart and Smash will have better sales, but how much hardware will they realistically push? Final Fantasy XIII showed that you can have a ~2M seller on an install base of 4M. Mario Kart 8 might do big number (though I think it will be significantly lower than MKWii), but if the attach rate is 55-60%, that won't mean much for overall hardware sales. Gamecube numbers can support a 2M seller.
michaelius
Banned
Yes and I belive Nintendo is in especially bad position here as their games are fully concentrated on gameplay so they can't use the "know what happened next in your favourite story" angle
Thats right. They need to push the multiplayer angle pretty hard, cause its the only thing that makes the title stand up compared to the last ones.
That may help. I dont think we can expect a whole lot. 500k ltd is possible (altough hard as hell), but more than that is a true pipe dream.
But i dont think its fair to judge the future performance based on comgnet. Its impossible that Mario will sell less than Pikmin, not just based on sheer name alone, but the fact its going to be released next to holidays pretty much guarantee this.
Wonder how much a title like X is going to convince people in Japan to buy the system. You're talking about an open world RPG where you fly with Mechs, and kill dinosaurs in party group format.
This game is pretty much tailored for Japanese players, and the only way they could have made it better if they put it on the 3DS for local multi co-op.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
This just seems to fit Tales. FF doesn't follow what your saying and Dragons Dogma certainly doesn't. Souls series as well.
stupid fetish? I feel insulted T_T
You really think the people who buy Dragon's Dogma and Dark Souls are the usual audience keeping the majority of RPG releases in Japan alive? The Tales audience is much closer to that.
Kunihiko Tanaka's doing art. He worked on Key the Metal Doll. =P
Tanaka is so oldschool, most of the audience today probably have no idea who he is. Sawano is definitely the "mainstream" draw for X.
It's sad but true, thank god Monolith is not like that.
Hellraider
Member
It would be really difficulty to have a mild success with the game being on WiiU. No matter what Nintendo does regarding the title, no matter the strategy the WiiU will, as things are now, keep it back.
This conversation is a little too vague without some numbers.What would it have to sell to be considered as mild success?
I think Western sales will be more important to X's success than is typical for that genre. If X can manage worldwide sales along the lines of Fire Emblem Awakening, or Demons' Souls (lets ignore the even more successful Dark Souls for now), I think it will be in good shape.
Japan only for a jrpg? 150-200k. I think for a larger budget game like this though, the goal should be higher. That's why I said 200-300k.
Updated chart. The sudden jump is due to Famitsu adjusted sales (or consistent mistakes from the person who transcribed the old top 30..).
---
EDIT: There was a copy paste mistake. haha
Code:
DC LTD WII U LTD
DC LTD WIIU LTD
1999-10-11 1,047,564 2013-10-21 1,084,653
1999-10-18 1,057,122
1999-10-25 1,070,548What was the Dreamcast's final LTD for Japan?
I feel the problem with X is not the appeal, but rather Nintendo's lack of experience in marketing to the demographic it would appeal to. We're not talking about just general audiences or kids here. This is the sort of title which I view as a "big core title". Being a RPG is less important in this case than being a blockbuster. But the problem is, with these games you need very aggressive marketing to let that audience know that its a big deal. There's so much competition in this space that if you don't make it seem like a huge deal, you lose out to titles which do - including western titles like CoD, GTA, etc these days.
The sort of audience the game would be competing for are those who are used to seeing 8 page Famitsu articles with advertising spreads, lots of trailers and marketing in stores and all over. Having a big presence at game shows and events, and so on. Nintendo doesn't do that. In fact, they actively resist that style of marketing because they feel that their games can stand on their own quality. It's good to be confident about your product, but ignoring the business reality is part of what landed the WiiU in the situation it is today, and I fear that even if Monolithsoft gives their all on X, they will be let down by how Nintendo fails to understand how to engage the audience the game is made for.
I also don't feel that X is specifically a "Japanese" title. It definitely has international appeal, but again, all the points I raised apply to promotion in the US and in Europe as well.
The sort of audience the game would be competing for are those who are used to seeing 8 page Famitsu articles with advertising spreads, lots of trailers and marketing in stores and all over. Having a big presence at game shows and events, and so on. Nintendo doesn't do that. In fact, they actively resist that style of marketing because they feel that their games can stand on their own quality. It's good to be confident about your product, but ignoring the business reality is part of what landed the WiiU in the situation it is today, and I fear that even if Monolithsoft gives their all on X, they will be let down by how Nintendo fails to understand how to engage the audience the game is made for.
I also don't feel that X is specifically a "Japanese" title. It definitely has international appeal, but again, all the points I raised apply to promotion in the US and in Europe as well.
Famitsu: 1.92m
Media Create: 2.2m
Shipments: 2.8m (athough I can't find the source right now, possibly includes other Asian countries)
I think this is a really good point. The reverse can easily be applied to Sony marketing family-appealing game like the Puppetteer or LBP Karting in the past year.I feel the problem with X is not the appeal, but rather Nintendo's lack of experience in marketing to the demographic it would appeal to. We're not talking about just general audiences or kids here. This is the sort of title which I view as a "big core title". Being a RPG is less important in this case than being a blockbuster. But the problem is, with these games you need very aggressive marketing to let that audience know that its a big deal. There's so much competition in this space that if you don't make it seem like a huge deal, you lose out to titles which do - including western titles like CoD, GTA, etc these days.
The sort of audience the game would be competing for are those who are used to seeing 8 page Famitsu articles with advertising spreads, lots of trailers and marketing in stores and all over. Having a big presence at game shows and events, and so on. Nintendo doesn't do that. In fact, they actively resist that style of marketing because they feel that their games can stand on their own quality. It's good to be confident about your product, but ignoring the business reality is part of what landed the WiiU in the situation it is today, and I fear that even if Monolithsoft gives their all on X, they will be let down by how Nintendo fails to understand how to engage the audience the game is made for.
I also don't feel that X is specifically a "Japanese" title. It definitely has international appeal, but again, all the points I raised apply to promotion in the US and in Europe as well.
Quoting how well the PSP is doing just shows how bad the Vita is doing.
Its a Atari 2600 v 5200 situation again, and part of why Atari was fucked. You need people to move en masse to your next new thing in order to grow.
So it sold half its LTD in the first year. Wii U should at least avoid that fate.
Exacly like Wii taking WiiU sales in western markets.
Yep, except nobody is making Wii games anymore. Nintendo's issue is that the Wii U can't compete with the 3DS, really.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
For comparison to a poor-selling Nintendo console, GameCube at 52 weeks was at about 39% of its eventual total by Famitsu's count.
EDIT: 50% was passed week 69.
1st Course
Member
The Wii U might even top the N64 as Nintendo console with the worst 3rd party support at this rate. Using data from here:
Hmm, so we could be looking at 3M LTD without some major turnaround. What did the Genesis end up with in Japan?
3.58m. This site has almost all Japanese hardware shipments: http://gamedatamuseum.web.fc2.com/hardhistory.htm (as I said before, no source, and some include shipments to other Asian countries).
More doom and gloom:
N64 shipments after 282 days: 2.04m / final 5.54m = 37%
Wii U shipments after 296 days: 1.15m / final ???
N64 already had SM64 and MK64.
PS.: I noticed a mistake in the Dreamcast LTD I posted earlier. Wii U still had a few weeks of breathing room. It's correct now.
1st Course
Member
NGC
Wii
Wii
I feel the problem with X is not the appeal, but rather Nintendo's lack of experience in marketing to the demographic it would appeal to. We're not talking about just general audiences or kids here. This is the sort of title which I view as a "big core title". Being a RPG is less important in this case than being a blockbuster. But the problem is, with these games you need very aggressive marketing to let that audience know that its a big deal. There's so much competition in this space that if you don't make it seem like a huge deal, you lose out to titles which do - including western titles like CoD, GTA, etc these days.
The sort of audience the game would be competing for are those who are used to seeing 8 page Famitsu articles with advertising spreads, lots of trailers and marketing in stores and all over. Having a big presence at game shows and events, and so on. Nintendo doesn't do that. In fact, they actively resist that style of marketing because they feel that their games can stand on their own quality. It's good to be confident about your product, but ignoring the business reality is part of what landed the WiiU in the situation it is today, and I fear that even if Monolithsoft gives their all on X, they will be let down by how Nintendo fails to understand how to engage the audience the game is made for.
I also don't feel that X is specifically a "Japanese" title. It definitely has international appeal, but again, all the points I raised apply to promotion in the US and in Europe as well.
Yup. You could see this with W101 and I imagine you will see this with Bayo 2. Nintendo's strategy of advertising 3 weeks before launch can work for a lot of their first party stuff, but not these types of games.
Well, virtually nobody except for Nintendo is making games for the Wii U either, whereas the Vita is receiving a lot of support lately along with the PS3 and PS4 (and has been doing much better than the PSP in the past months as well). The big issue with the Wii U has nothing to do with the 3DS imo. The issue is that it simply failed to become relevant and that left it without the support it needs.
I hope they can reverse this situation, but they absolutely need third parties for that.
I wonder if the situation would have been different if Nintendo had made the Wii U port friendly with the 3DS, sort of like the PSV/PS3 situation. The PSV is getting a good amount of multi-platform releases with the PS3 and it helps the Vita greatly.
It isn't going to work for new IPs at all, unless it has something that is a real attention-grabber.
It isn't going to work for new IPs at all, unless it has something that is a real attention-grabber.
Otakumegane
Member
I feel the problem with X is not the appeal, but rather Nintendo's lack of experience in marketing to the demographic it would appeal to. We're not talking about just general audiences or kids here. This is the sort of title which I view as a "big core title". Being a RPG is less important in this case than being a blockbuster. But the problem is, with these games you need very aggressive marketing to let that audience know that its a big deal. There's so much competition in this space that if you don't make it seem like a huge deal, you lose out to titles which do - including western titles like CoD, GTA, etc these days.
The sort of audience the game would be competing for are those who are used to seeing 8 page Famitsu articles with advertising spreads, lots of trailers and marketing in stores and all over. Having a big presence at game shows and events, and so on. Nintendo doesn't do that. In fact, they actively resist that style of marketing because they feel that their games can stand on their own quality. It's good to be confident about your product, but ignoring the business reality is part of what landed the WiiU in the situation it is today, and I fear that even if Monolithsoft gives their all on X, they will be let down by how Nintendo fails to understand how to engage the audience the game is made for.
I also don't feel that X is specifically a "Japanese" title. It definitely has international appeal, but again, all the points I raised apply to promotion in the US and in Europe as well.
What's scary is that it's pretty clear that already they are following their "usual" methods. The game doesn't even have a name yet. People in the GIF thread didn't know about it, and it was shown in January.
They should be sending press kits and letting the disgruntled FF fans know that the game exists. It has far too little exposure for something shown 10 months ago. I mean we should be getting gameplay previews by now.
They did the same thing with Xenoblade. Announced it as Monado during one of their conferences. Then nothing for what seemed like forever (I thought it was cancelled). Then, all of a sudden it was released (and we proceeded to wait 2 years to get the title translated in North America).
Otakumegane
Member
I had no idea it even existed until Operation rainfall.
If a fan campaign can advertise the game better than you, then you're doing something terribly wrong.
Could have been tragic.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Comparing anything to the PS1 software sales would show a decline. Yes there has been a decline in the genre (a big factor is SE's output decreasing significantly) however the genre still supports many big releases. Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest and to some extent Monster Hunter are all rpgs and they are the biggest third party games in Japan. Tales as well.
Meanwhile Dark Souls, Dragons Dogma and Bravely Default had some of the highest LTD's for new IP's recently and what a coincidence that they are rpgs as well. There is definitely a sizeable audience for the genre, the problem is that rpgs are expensive and require a lot of effort resulting in many pubs offering less and less.
150-200k would be bad for a large budget rpg. I would be expecting 300k+ as successful.
The thing is it works with PS3/V because the two machines are relatively close in hardware performance. There is quite a gap between 3DS and WiiU and no doubt 3DS games would look like a mess on a TV.
Bending_Unit_22
Member
Looks like they are rounding to the nearest 10k, so less than 5k or 10k. Either way probably closer to 1,000 regardless.
Exterminieren
Banned
In fairness, X was revealed far earlier than Nintendo typically reveal things like this. I'd be pretty surprised if it was out within the next 12 months. It was the last thing showcased at their E3 show. They're clearly trying to build hype for it earlier than they normally do for things like these.
If the situation is the same in 6 months, then you might have a point.
While the first part is true, the second part is quite silly. Resident Evil Revelations, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate, Castlevania Mirror of Fate, E.X. Troopers (multi-platform, but helps illustrate the point), and etc.
It can be up-ported. Now how much is required for the port may vary.
The problem with giving X the marketing a typical hardcore game would get is that it sounds like throwing good money after bad. Is X's audience going to buy a Wii U to play one RPG? I doubt it. The machine doesn't even have the same kind of third party RPGs that Wii had, and we saw how Xenoblade performed there. I don't think X will ever make money for Nintendo, so it's a question on if they'll try to minimize losses.
BishopLamont
Banned
Its not just the marketing though, its the whole way they're handling the game, eg. gameplay previews and such. Its not just this game either. I mean they have Nintendo Direct and they're not even taking full advantage of it.
Exterminieren
Banned
I would be totally unsurprised if it turned out X had suffered a budget cut and the final product doesn't represent the original vision.
Thoroughly disappointed, but not surprised.