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Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2013 (Oct 21 - Oct 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Sammy Samusu
Member
Mirai 2 will slay lives if word of mouth is good.
shinra-bansho
Member
How many weeks before Pikmin 3 was that v. how many weeks until 3DW?
It's the same amount of days before the release date for both of them. All of the comparisons in my posts are based on this principle.
Wow... then i can understand being slightly nervous for 3D World.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Two weeks left still iirc. Interesting to see how well this will do. Can we expect a 500k+ opening across both SKU's?
Sammy Samusu
Member
Sunshine - 280,610
Galaxy - 256,341
Mario 3D is not a big seller at launch to begin with.
Pre-orders are low because of that, and also the fact that nobody has a Wii U. I'm guessing people will buy the console along with the game.
Galaxy - 256,341
Mario 3D is not a big seller at launch to begin with.
Pre-orders are low because of that, and also the fact that nobody has a Wii U. I'm guessing people will buy the console along with the game.
Yes, unless you are DCharlie.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes? You expect God Eater 2 to almost double the previous opening weekends, outsell God Eater Burst and debut only ~100k behind the LTD of the original GE?
pieatorium
Member
first weeks
god eater 276k
god eater burst 267k
i think you can expect 300k+ but i wouldn't say 500k is on the cards for an opening
Sammy Samusu
Member
November release, bundle, multi platform, brand new game of established franchise...
I think it's possible, I'm expecting around 450k, just short of 500k.
Hmm when is 3D World releasing in Japan, does it have any time to pick up?
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
In less that 20 days (21st Nov). So... not really.
Would people think 30k for WiiU next week would be good enough after pretty much a straight month of sub-5k sales?
Vita's remodel or whatever dragged in 60k to then drop from back to more anaemic sales, so half of that would not be good news at all, especially with such retail interest in 3D World causing concern. Feels like we're gonna have a pretty clear picture of the DOOOOOOM in/by early December. Barring the usual "SLOW BURNER" excuses of course and other "wait til"s.
ThatStupidLion
Member
Will vitaTV get added as a row or just included in vita overall?
Damn. Isn't the highest first week sales for any Vita game like 100k? Wonder what the Vita/PSP delta will be.
Edit:
Could be me talking nonsense, but that does make sense seeing how Vita sales seem stable around 20k right now.
DragonSworne
Banned
Don't worry about Mario 3D, Nintendo will have a Direct for it... Is Nintendo even advertising this game?
People may not preorder 3D Mario too. Maybe they just casually pick it up because its aimed at a broad market...?
shinra-bansho
Member
After Vita's 60K, 30K would be underwhelming. Wii U has been performing worse than Vita was in the interim between new SKU announcement and release as well.
In theory, if people are holding off, that would mean more people are holding off?
Although, ultimately where it falls to post bump, on a consistent basis, will probably be more important.
kingkaiser
Member
Yup, and all we know Nintendo fans in Japan just love to stand in line for their favorite games at launch day...
Sammy Samusu
Member
Yeah, but let's not get twisted, Mario 3D World will probably bomb harder than NSMB Wii U.
NSMB Wii U - 170,563 / 553,624
Vita has much more support and games than Wii U. And a redesign in six colors oughta push more than a couple bundles.
Wii U is doomed beyond saving, unless a miracle happens a la Wii Sports, Monster Hunter. Which is exactly what Iwata is hoping for, "one game has the power to change everything", lololololol.
I think its going to sell less too, but i also think its totally possible to sell the same. In the past, 2d Mario sold much better because of the expanded audience, which is obviously not with wiiu. If most of those sales consist of hardcore fans, why they wouldnt to get the new Mario? I dont think we have a totally black or white situation. 3d land sold almost as much as new mario 2 on 3ds.
About those possible 30k sales, it would be the best week for the wiiu ever since the launch period, which just shows how fucked they are, but i dont think it would be a good sign. Its not like they lose much. Going from selling 5k to 3k for weeks is hardly a problem since you arent selling anything to begin with, but 30k is not a lot in my opinion... Not when you are releasing a big (?) game, doing bundles and showing ads. 40k would be a nice number.
Well, in the end, selling 30k or 40k, what matters is how it will hold up. Selling something like 20k wouldnt be good though.
thehypocrite
Member
Iwata already gave up, now he waits for a miracle to capture lighting in a bottle.
It feels like Nintendo gave up on Wii U in general. The system really needed the sort of quick and dramatic response 3DS got when it stumbled after launch. Instead Nintendo held back 1st party software to stack the end of the year, waited far too long for a price drop that is far too little and as a result of early inaction allowed 3rd parties to cancel projects en masse going by insiders.
I guess the buck stops at Iwata, but the failure to respond really feels like it's been a company wide issue.
Wow, there's nothing but poison left in the well. It seems like everything underperforms on the Wii U regardless of genre or audience (except Monster Hunter HD ports I guess).
You are all putting too much faith on comgnet. We already know its not a good indicative at all. The game is not even out. Its going to sell well. Its not going to save anything or whatever, but its going to sell much better than any other wiiu game released this year till now.
sörine;88339751 said:
I don't think it's really that simple though. Comparing it to the 3DS would be a serious mistake because the 3DS "response" wasn't some sort of magic wand which Nintendo simply decided to wave.
- The 3DS was not selling terribly, it just wasn't taking off.
- The 3DS did not have a dire lack of support, the bigger games were simply taking some time to materialize.
- The 3DS was had a pretty steady stream of lower profile titles leading up to a rush of larger titles from both first party and third party publishers.
Nintendo's "dramatic" response was simply a matter of knowing that a huge wave of titles were coming out anyway, and they positioned the price drop such that people who rushed to buy the 3DS at the new price point would also immediately see that there are major new games coming out at that same window, and even more to come in the next few months.
That sort of response is impossible with the WiiU. They have no third party support, their first parties are struggling to develop games fast enough, and a drastic price drop would provide a temporary bump before people realized there were no games after all.
Sammy Samusu
Member
It's not just about Comgnet though, 3D World is poised to be the worst selling Mario 3D ever.
Mario 2D struggled to cross 500k, how much do you think Mario 3D will sell?
thehypocrite
Member
Yes. But we had the Vita. Nintendo saw (maybe caused?) 1st hand how badly a platform under performs when faced with publisher's apathy. Why don't they enable cross porting of 3ds games to Wii U? Why isn't their back catalog avaliable in the e_store? Where's their cheaper redesign? Where's the drive to push it to a better level of performance? Nintendo gave up early. They never used all their bullets, their holster or their gun.
michaelius
Banned
Hmm what if we have heat wave in November ?
Based on?
Based on all the great indicators like Comgnet, Amazon charts, and hunches.
AKA, you're guessing. You might be right, but there clearly isn't enough info yet to make a clear conclusion on how good or bad 3D World will do.
You can add absolutely no marketing to it. It really seems like a bomba in the making.
It was sarcasm. Those "Mario will be the worst-selling 3D Mario" predictions are funny. A broken clock is right twice a day, so they've got a 50% chance of being right. Congratulations.
shinra-bansho
Member
Well, it's on the worst selling Nintendo home console pretty much ever. I don't know why it would surprise anyone if it does end up the worst selling 3D Mario ever.
NSMBU hasn't even sold 550K.
Sunshine sold 790K, so it has to beat that.
The Wii U's installed base is 1.1M.
You can do the math, I guess.
You really think Japan would rather spend more money on a 2D Mario platformer over a 3D one?
Don't get me wrong, I don't think an identical response was possible for Wii U. But more could have been done and sooner. We know games like Pikmin 3 or Game & Wario were finished months before releasing, we know that a ton of 3rd party projects were canceled or delayed off the disasterious Q1 and low-ish launch sales, the price drop certainly could have come sooner and been steeper.
3DS had more advantages going in regarding support and price flexibility, but I also think Nintendo did more to reverse trends with it and with greater urgency.
shinra-bansho
Member
Is this sarcasm?
Sincere curiosity.
I always feel as though bringing up NSMBU is a faulty point seeing as its underwhelming sales could've likely be due to fatigue from NSMB 2, which released very close to it.
shinra-bansho
Member
Code:
DS New Super Mario Bros. 6,402,912
DS Super Mario 64 DS 1,217,587
3DS New Super Mario Bros. 2 1,942,090
3DS Super Mario 3D Land 1,820,590
Wii New Super Mario Bros. Wii 4,518,492
Wii Super Mario Galaxy 1,017,287
Wii Super Mario Galaxy 2 1,003,763Release is still 3 weeks away. Expect Nintendo to market the game HARD.
To me, the only real comparison is the Wii games. New Super Mario Bros DS was a brand new game that restarted the 2D Mario games while Mario 64 DS was a remake, and NSMB2, and 3D Land are pretty close. Although I should note that NSMB2 launched 6 months later.
But fair enough. I do think Japan and everyone else has 2D Mario fatigue and are ready for a 3D Mario game again.
They should market the game before if they wanted it to be really successful, 3 weeks maybe not enough to get people attention with all the next gen craze.
The perfect Dark
Banned
I need the new WiiU bundle numbers...I'm really curious
Their marketing budget always seem to be overstretched, they're constantly saying that they have to delay marketing for one thing or another.