It's a fair assumption. It might turn out differently though. It's not as doomed as the Wii U port scene was; most companies just threw their PS2 teams at it and then when that market dried up they all packed it in.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 45, 2012 (Nov 05 - Nov 11)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It's a fair assumption. It might turn out differently though. It's not as doomed as the Wii U port scene was; most companies just threw their PS2 teams at it and then when that market dried up they all packed it in.
The 3DS failed to perform in the sprint, but is currently safely leading the marathon.
The Vita was asleep during the sprint, woke up in time for the marathon, and quickly proceeded to collapse on the track and is now lying unconscious, while occasionally being dragged forward slightly by gusts of wind.
The Vita was asleep during the sprint, woke up in time for the marathon, and quickly proceeded to collapse on the track and is now lying unconscious, while occasionally being dragged forward slightly by gusts of wind.
frankie_baby
Member
I say Xmas (this year) they've probably got enough systems already manufactured to last til next years fire sale
In retrospect those old threads about the Vita are a hilarious read these days:
Vita could potentially give 3DS a run for it's money
Playstation Vita announced at $249. Same price as the 3DS!
IGN: Vita is destined to sell better than 3DS
There was definitely a point in time where folks thought it was going to happen. Almost everyone thought it would at the very least be closer than the PSP/DS were. But thats not looking to be even remotely the case. Scaled and percentage wise the rift between them is going to be gargantuan this time.
Meanwhile, VitaMy favorite handheld device, ever (and the first in which I, personally, felt like the "inferior to consoles" sensation completely disappeared) and it's just clearly on the way to an early grave. God but this makes me sad.
Why has that completely disappeared when it's obviously still there? Is it gone for you just because Vita doesn't have the support to show the difference enough?
Well, there was a point in time when it looked like Nintendo was doing nothing and comparatively Sony was doing things right. So the articles made sense at that time. Vita looked good because 3DS looked bad.
Then soon after that Nintendo showed that they really had been doing things behind the scenes and also they would take a hit because they care about the handheld business as much as their console business and Sony doesn't and they, Sony, are still trying to recover from that. They won't.
Then soon after that Nintendo showed that they really had been doing things behind the scenes and also they would take a hit because they care about the handheld business as much as their console business and Sony doesn't and they, Sony, are still trying to recover from that. They won't.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I'm not sure what, say, a Top 10 ranking would be, but 3DS's only competition is original DS. It had these two monster years head and shoulders above anything else, and a few more in the ~4 million range. Browsing data a bit more, GBA had a year over 4 million (the partial launch year, weirdly enough), and PS2/Wii/PSP had years at nearly 4 million. So 3DS 2012 may end up #3 overall?
I figured 3DS's early launch would give it a chance at a greater percentage difference than DS had, but not like this. After PSP's first week, it always had 20-40% of the DS/PSP hardware total in Japan. PSV has always been under 12% of the 3DS/PSV hardware total.Cipherr said:
Thanks for explaining that. I thought it was a typo.
I'm not sure what, say, a Top 10 ranking would be, but 3DS's only competition is original DS. It had these two monster years head and shoulders above anything else, and a few more in the ~4 million range. Browsing data a bit more, GBA had a year over 4 million (the partial launch year, weirdly enough), and PS2/Wii/PSP had years at nearly 4 million. So 3DS 2012 may end up #3 overall?
I figured 3DS's early launch would give it a chance at a greater percentage difference than DS had, but not like this. After PSP's first week, it always had 20-40% of the DS/PSP hardware total in Japan. PSV has always been under 12% of the 3DS/PSV hardware total.
Assuming Pokémon gen six drops next year (not set in stone by any means, but likely nonetheless) you'll get one of those years next year on 3DS.
grimshawish
Banned
I usually find its non-handheld players who make these sorts of predictions.
Not meaning to generalise ofc; but its my explanation for it.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
MS will continue to be a non factor next gen in Japan.
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
First couple pages are incredible.
Relix said:
BlazingDarkness said:
Relix said:
Ultron87 said:
Relix said:
DuckRacer said:
DMPrince said:
outunderthestars said:
Krev said:
Jason Raize '75 - '94 said:
Korez said:
Epcott said:
MasterShotgun said:
OG_Original Gamer said:
midonnay said:
Do half of these posters even have a Vita? Lol.
Wsippel and shuelma being the lone voices of reason:
wsippel said:
schuelma said:
wsippel said:
frankie_baby
Member
So anyone think 3ds has a shot at 6 million for the year?
GAFfers are so fickle, lol
jeremy1456
Junior Member
It made slightly more sense, but it was still pretty obvious that the PSP stood very little chance of overtaking the DS.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
How much do you think the Wii U will sell it's first year?
Edit: and the PS4 and 720, for that matter. How much during Holiday til March 2014?
Metallix87
Member
I think you'll be very surprised when most multiplats also show up on Wii U going into next gen.
Nice find. Some random quotes:
Nah, PS2 was at its absolute height, had all the third parties on board, one price estimate was that the PSP was delivering a 600 dollar hardware for under 300, it was simply the finest portable media player available in late 2004 and 2005. It was getting GTA.
Nintendo was going to cut short the impressive run of the GBA for this kid toy looking thing and while it would of course deliver the sort of experience people came to know from Nintendo it was going to sell like the GCN did, only to kids and the faithful.
PSP also had a few months there when the perception was the reality. Then Nintendogs hit right in the middle of the PSP's post launch drought. Even then the future wasn't certain until lite was shown on the situation and by then it was already over.
Father_Brain
Banned
I assume that you're just referring to Japanese titles, right?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Even on the much smaller than now selling power of Nintendo's portable software it still had significantly more pull than anything announced for the PSP at the time. The only unknown was GTA which was absolutely huge at the time.
It was pretty clear the DS would come out on top. Then Sony started focusing on the PS3 and all but forgot about their handheld. That's when it was set in stone.
Exactly.
And re: those quotes from Vita vs 3DS. Those are typical gaf overreactions after an announcement. It's easy to say now that 3DS is destroying everything in Japan but in the summer last year 3DS was losing momentum, priced the same as the Vita and with no one expecting MH3G as a 3DS exclusive (not this early as MHP3G for PSP would had made more sense), launching before the Vita and MH4 also announced.
Not that I was ever expecting the Vita to destroy the 3DS or even sell as good as the 3DS (due to the one year headstart), but a lot of big things happened in August and September that probably decided this portable generation in Japan.
I've got 2 things to say to you (talking about Japan):
- Monster Hunter 3G
- Dragon Quest X
It will sell a lot in Japan. And judging the way Japanese thinks, I think we'll see a lot of Eastern stuff on the Wii U. Those devs don't participate in the 'graphics race'
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Fixed
thestopsign
Member
In Japan a lot of people started recognizing the NDS's success pretty early on after Brain Age and Nintendogs came out, later solidified by the resounding win during the New Year in 2005. The DS Lite launch was just the point where many people world wide started accepting it as the clear winner.
A good old sales/console wars thread. GAf is warming up with 3DS/vita waiting for the Wii U. Unfortunately, there will not be any challenger to the Wii U for at least one year!
Vita thread quotes were good, but I guess you can find any quotes in one sense or in the opposite other anyway. "Perceived" winning side was good too. But this week "perceived" is the funny keyword ^^"
Vita thread quotes were good, but I guess you can find any quotes in one sense or in the opposite other anyway. "Perceived" winning side was good too. But this week "perceived" is the funny keyword ^^"
frankie_baby
Member
While 3ds exclusively for monhun may not have been realisable last summer there were enough blatantly obvious hints the series was at least going to be on 3ds
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Really? Wii U is not as hyped as Wii but there are obvious differences. Yet, I still see them selling out based on Nintendoland (to casuals with Nintendo fans making up the difference. Put another way, Nintendo can sell 3-4 million based on their history, to their fans and the casuals will pick up the rest). Given they have some 3rd party ports already, that will go a long way to turning opinions around just enough. From there, it's a short jump to 6 million by summer (if not by march 2013), 2 million just in NA for the holidays and well past 10 million before the end of 2013. That's such a big base with decent 1st party support, Ubi and EA willing to give some 3rd party support. All Nintendo has to prove is they can sell 100-500K for major 3rd party games to get the support. The bar for decent 3rd party sales isn't in the millions. Ubi will be happy with 500K of AC3 and all in if it clears 1 million. Those 3-4 million sellers? That just gets them high as a kite but they don't need that. May seem impossible but who knows what will happen over the next year.
Either way, a 10 million install base before your competitors sell 2 million will at least get them a look from 3rd parties. And with the impending drop off from MS and Sony these next 2 holidays in the current generation, it would be even worse for 3rd parties to overlook the Wii U. With Wii, they had legitimate concerns (incompatible architecture). With Wii U, they'll have a need to generate revenue. That brings EA and Ubi and Activision. When those guys come, it'll suck in most other companies just looking to make 500K more sales. That's $30 million in revenue and at least $5million in profit to the publishers. Not something they would easily walk away from.
These things I say are not guaranteed but seem obtainable. Not a drastic reach.
May happen. May not. All depending on how many 3rd party titles that hit over a million on the U (I hate saying that). You would have to see plenty of 3rd party titles have great to excellent success. Like 2-3 million for AC3. A couple of million for Madden. Then, outselling the competition (720/PS4) next year. I mostly see Ninty not being the lead platform, early in the life cycle but selling better than wii, having multiple million selling 3rd party titles. If that happens, they'll take off and MS will be holding a $399 box w/o a lot of room to maneuver.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yep, the equal price situation changed drastically, especially in Japan. No one saw this coming, and all the previous quotes posted above here took the equal price into concideration.
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
That might be true but a lot of them are statements of the future, taking in all the possibilities. Nobody expected the 3DS price drop so drastically and so early, but it was nonetheless the possibility. That's why the quotes are humorous, they didn't take into account any of the possibilities for 3DS. Just shortsightedness.
I think it just really highlights that it's never the system itself that sells, but the games for it.
Aside from that, I remember the MASSIVE blowback from almost everyone (especially Vita hopefuls and then-current 3DS owners) when the price drop/ambassador program/Circle Pad Pro trifecta of "bad 3DS news" came about. Those decisions were held as proof that the 3DS was definitely going to fail, because obviously Nintendo has no clue whatsoever in handling their system. I give massive props for Iwata for having the balls to do something so drastic, knowing full well the massive storm of controversy it would cause. He, unlike those in the quotes above, was the complete opposite of shortsighted.
DS Lite was indeed the start of the DS crazyness and DS alone in the world, setting up every new record you cna think of in matter of hardware sales, but the december 2005 month was just as crazy in Japan. While doing a very decent YTD in 2005 with 2.2M psp sold, the DS did 4.1M with huge weeks in december: 200k, 300k, 400k, 600k and 400k again. This month has ever be topped in japanese hardware sales.
So I'm Ok worlwide, the DS Lite release is the definitive turn of things, but in Japan, the winner was clear even before that.
MeBecomingI
Member
Yeah, I think it is safe to say the Vita is dead. Dropping the price may provide a bit of a boost, but I'm not sure it will be much and it will be sustainable. I'm not even sure a holiday boost will do much of anything. They just don't have the software and nothing to boost the platform and if they do they are sending the games to die next to the likes of Monster Hunter 4, which somehow escaped the grasp of Sony. Wonderful platform run into the ground by incompetence, it seems.
PSP had Metal Gear and a freaking FF VII game announced for it along with GTA for the west and the promise of all your favorite PS2 monster franchises coming out for it.
I'm not saying the DS had jack as I was impressed as hell for Mario Kart DS and of course a new Pokémon game and a new 2D Mario game, and Nintendogs.
It really looked like the GBA was the SNES and the DS was the N64 while the PSP was the PSX all over again, only this time not coming out of nowhere.
I'm not saying the DS had jack as I was impressed as hell for Mario Kart DS and of course a new Pokémon game and a new 2D Mario game, and Nintendogs.
It really looked like the GBA was the SNES and the DS was the N64 while the PSP was the PSX all over again, only this time not coming out of nowhere.
We know under which circumstances these statements happened. That didn´t make them any less funny.
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
It wasn't just Sony's incompetence, which wasn't nearly as bad as the active harm they did to PS3 early on. Nintendo has been very aggressive this gen in courting Japanese third parties, far more so in last gen, and I'm sure that caught Sony by surprise (it certainly caught me by surprise, at least.)
test_account
XP-39C²
To be fair, if someone had said earlier that Nintendo would drop the 3DS price with 40% in Japan a few months after launch, i think most people would have laughed at that idea. It was not something that someone really concidered early on, probably not even Nintendo themself.
We could say the similar thing about Vita. If someone says that the Vita could get a big boost in sales if they drop the price and get some big games for it, most people here will most likely respond that it is very unlikely to happen. Technically it isnt impossible, but i think most people here would rule it out as a likely possibility. Will they be concidered as shortsighted if the Vita sales actually takes off in Japan?
If the price was equal to this day, the software support in general would probably be a bit different than what we see today.
Iwata has first hand knowledge of these things, so it is naturally that he is more insightful about these things compared to people who have no connection to Nintendo's management at all. What Iwata did was a gamble, he could not know exactly how the 3DS situation would be after the pricedrop. It was a risky move that required balls indeed since he couldnt know the exact outcome. It payed off big time in Japan.
Metallix87
Member
Yes, of course. As far as the Western support is concerned, I'm not too confident at all. Still, I think almost all third party titles from Japanese devs will appear on Wii U, at least as long as the system starts out pretty strong, which I think it will, given that Mario, Dragon Quest, and Monster Hunter are appearing on the platform very early on.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I conceded GTA, but an FFVII spinoff and Metal Gear are hardly anything in the face of Mario and Pokemon which were both announced early.
As far as the monster PS2 series... I remember Devil May Cry and Grand Turismo being announced but outside of that not a whole lot else as far as real announcements go. Speaking of course of those 'PS2 monster franchises.'
NeonZ
Member
I don't think competition will actually be that big of a factor here. Unlike the Wii, it seems like the Wii U will get a big head start. I think that head start will do a lot to leave the situation in Nintendo's own hands this time.
If the Wii U fails to do very well now with its launch and first year, then, the scenario likely won't change from the Wii's, and third party support will continue lacking, and all but evaporate after the PS3 and 360 are done. However, if Nintendo succeeds in selling it this holiday and the next year, I think there's a chance this won't end up like the Wii. The 3rd parties, even if they're betting on the PS4 and 720 behind the scenes right now, will generally be in much earlier production timelines, so the viability and chances of a change of direction will be bigger.
Metallix87
Member
Spinoff? Crisis Core was the prequel to FF7, and got a lot of hype because of that fact.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Nintendo has New Super Mario bros, Mario Kart, Pokemon, and Animal Crossing.
Monster Hunter is smaller than those and where it landed wasn't going to be a deciding factor. Very little that happened in August and September had a tremendous effect. I still think that Nintendo could have held out for the software to come and not dropped the price.
In Japan at least.
Hindsight is certainly 20/20
I'm stoked to see how Wii U turns out from a sales perspective. I'm always hearing people, devs and industry analysts alike, say "You don't ever underestimate nintendo." It's almost a meme at this point. But for as often as I hear that, the doomspeak is almost nonstop as well. Either way, I know I'll be entertained