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[zsidane]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 230k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1100k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 245k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 310k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 103k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 230k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 348k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 199k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 299k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 129k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 308k

 

[Kid Ying]

I don't think Taiko will outsell MH3GU. It should definitely have legs, but on the Wii U with the lack of the expanded audience it seems too much.

I dont think selling more than 200k in the long run would be that hard for taiko. It would be the worst sales on the series ever since the ps2. Its doable. Wiiu may not have the expanded audience, but the holidays will help. If nintendo did a price drop it would help much more, but it is what it is.

 

[Asd202]

? 60% of sells-out on the first day implies it'll sell almost everything of the initial shipment (that is usually what they expect to sell on long term) in the first ten days. Like XIII-2 if I'm not mistaken. What's terrible about that?

60% of much lower shipment.

I think that's expected nowdays. Plus digital sales too to consider.

Yep it's normal for a price to drop in just a few days of release. I'm sorry but that's not the case. About digital is LR even up to buy on PSN? Anyway Japan doesn't do digital downloads.

 

[LuuKyK]

60% of much lower shipment.

Still satisfactory based on the companies prediction for the game, which means it was not over-shipped, which means it will be considered as successful as XIII-2 (even if the later was not really a success all things considered, but still).

 

[Asd202]

Still satisfactory based on the companies prediction for the game, which means it was not over-shipped, which means it will be considered as successful as XIII-2 (even if the later was not really a success all things considered, but still).

I don't think 60% is satisfactory for SE. They could have lowerd the shipments to sell it out not to be at 60% again. They know FF is front-loaded.

 

[Nirolak]

Still satisfactory based on the companies prediction for the game, which means it was not over-shipped, which means it will be considered as successful as XIII-2 (even if the later was not really a success all things considered, but still).

People often get confused about this, but retailers determine shipment size, not publishers.

To illustrate this with an extreme, if Lightning Returns sold through 95% of stock, but retailers only ordered 20 copies, that wouldn't be a good result.

 

[bakman21]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) -220k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1450k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 300k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 300k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 205k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 305k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 350k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 700k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 165k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 105k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 310k

 

[LuuKyK]

People often get confused about this, but retailers determine shipment size, not publishers.

To illustrate this with an extreme, if Lightning Returns sold through 95% of stock, but retailers only ordered 20 copies, that wouldn't be a good result.

Wow, really? Does it work like that worldwide? I am pretty sure I already studied this kind of contract in one of my law subjects (I don't know the name in English, I can't remember if it was loan or on consignment, uhm, something like this) and I remember in situations like that when certain chain/store is selling your product you send the quantities you want, and then, if they eventually fail to sell everything, they have the power to choose to send it back or pay the price and keep it. At least I think thats how it works in my country. And I may be confusing things, of course, I have to say I am not really into contracts at all. :lol

 

[metalslimer]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 300k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 900k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 90k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 100k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 150k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 375k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 225k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 475k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 200k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 225k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 300k

Er.... I mean I know anything is possible, but saying 3D World won't outsell Pikmin week 1 in a month during the holidays is crazy. I also hope that Wii U hardware doesn't come to pass because that would mean it truly has no chance of staying above 10k and will probably be sub 5k by February.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 400k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1200k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 250k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 300k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 180k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 250k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 150k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 500k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 300k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 200k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 250k

 

[Kouriozan]

There are multiple people here predicting that the Wii U will sell an average of 60k per week through the end of the year from under 15k this week? ..... How? Nintendo gets a huge boost from the holidays sure but that seems excessive even then.

Is it your first Nintendo holidays here?
It won't be 60k per week anyway, something like 30/45/80(christmas)/40.

Spoiler

Just and example, don't take it seriously.

 

[Chris1964]

Wow, really? Does it work like that worldwide? I am pretty sure I already studied this kind of contract in one of my law subjects (I don't know the name in English, I can't remember if it was loan or on consignment, uhm, something like this) and I remember in situations like that when certain chain/store is selling your product you send the quantities you want, and then, if they eventually fail to sell everything, they have the power to choose to send it back or pay the price and keep it. At least I think thats how it works in my country. And I may be confusing things, of course, I have to say I am not really into contracts at all. :lol

It doesn't work like that in Japan. Retailers take full responsibility for the ordered shipment.

 

[Chris1964]

sinobi gave only these targets from publishers:

[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: Infinite Battle <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.480) - 80k
[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: Infinite Battle [& Super Robot Wars OG: Dark Prison] <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.980) - 120k

[PS3] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥7.770) - 100k
[WIU] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥7.770) - 20k
[360] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥7.770) - 10k

 

[Takao]

Are Sinobi's targets legit, or heavily rounded up? I only ask because some of the previous targets are no where near the reported sales.

 

[DaBoss]

Ubisoft is underestimating the 360 and overestimating the Wii U there.

In Japan?

Yes.

EDIT: Looking at Garaph, it looks like they're overestimating the 360 too. I still think 360 > Wii U in terms of sales for the game though.

 

[Tripon]

Ubisoft is underestimating the 360 and overestimating the Wii U there.

In Japan?

 

[Chris1964]

Are Sinobi's targets legit, or heavily rounded up? I only ask because some of the previous targets are no where near the reported sales.

No one can doubt sinobi's reliability. Publishers are the problem with the crazy targets they set.

 

[Ty4on]

In Japan?

CoD Ghosts sold 10k on the 360 and 2.5k on the WiiU according to Dengeki.

 

[leatherhat]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 300k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1100k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 170k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 270k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 200k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 320k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 180k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 650k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 220k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 100k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 110k

Vita hardware is probably too high but I want to be optimistic

 

[Takao]

I've added the last known Famitsu totals to some previous publisher expectations from Sinobi:

• Battlefield 4: 330k (PS3) 20k (360) 140.990 (PS3) 9.880 (360)
• Onechanbara Z Kagura: 50k (PS3) 14.556
• Akiba's Trip 2: 100k (Vita) 50k (PS3) 41.016 (Vita) 23.179 (PS3)
• Exstetra: 60k (Vita) 20k (3DS) 11.607 (Vita) 3.173 (3DS)
• J Legend Retsuden: 50k (3DS) 19.390
• Metal Max 4: 20k (Limited Ed.) 50k (Normal Ed.) (3DS) 27.214
• Medabots Dual: 140k (3DS) 19.839
• Seisou no Amazones: 20k (3DS) 5.639
• God Eater 2: 400k (Vita) 200k (PSP) 258.826 (Vita) 119.620 (PSP)
• COD Ghosts: 300k (PS3) 30k (360) 25k (WiiU) 217.645 (PS3) 11.886 (360) lol (Wii U)
• Winning Eleven 2014: 370k (PS3) 70k (PSP) 70k (3DS) 153.410 (PS3) 16.504 (PSP) 10.459 (3DS)

Very few of those turned out to be reasonable expectations.

As I'm a fan of Medabots, I just have to wonder how they ever expected that game to push 140k as a spinoff when the previous two mainline games sold less than that.

 

[ZeroXZee]

Prediction League December, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 25 to Dec 29):

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 240k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1400k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 225k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 350k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 200k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 240k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 190k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 850k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 210k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 110k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 230k

 

[LOCK]

I wonder if Disney: Infinity will catch on in Japan, like it appears to be in America.

 

[Yanikun]

I've added the last known Famitsu totals to some previous publisher expectations from Sinobi:



Very few of those turned out to be reasonable expectations.

As I'm a fan of Medabots, I just have to wonder how they ever expected that game to push 140k as a spinoff when the previous two mainline games sold less than that.

Are those publisher expectations for the first week... ? Or simply shipment numbers. If it's the former then lol, everything mega-bombed.

 

[Alrus]

Very few of those turned out to be reasonable expectations.

As I'm a fan of Medabots, I just have to wonder how they ever expected that game to push 140k as a spinoff when the previous two mainline games sold less than that.

If those are for LTD, God Eater2, CoD (expect for the Wii U) and a few others should reach those goals without much trouble.

 

[MechaX]

sinobi gave only these targets from publishers:

[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: Infinite Battle <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.480) - 80k
[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG: Infinite Battle [& Super Robot Wars OG: Dark Prison] <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.980) - 120k

Given how awful the game looks, I'm surprised that the target is even that high (and this is even taking the 2nd OGs Dark Prison DLC in mind).

 

[Mario007]

PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 295k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1000k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 150k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 200k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 130k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 450k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 110k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 250k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 150k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 200k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 80k

Are we counting FF X HD and FF X-2 HD SKUs together to get the total for the Vita? If so, is the double pack counted as well?

 

[Mr Swine]

Prediction League December, 2013

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 1250k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1050k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 195k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 135k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 95k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 360k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 110k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 340k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 410k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 340k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 290k

 

[ZeroXZee]

I wonder if Disney: Infinity will catch on in Japan, like it appears to be in America.

I don't know...looks like the Wii SKU won't be released in Japan. Wii U also don't look good, based on Epic Mickey 2 and Skylanders sales. And that 3DS Disney game sold well, but it was a Animal Crossing clone, so maybe that's the main reason.

 

[Takao]

If those are for LTD, God Eater2, CoD (expect for the Wii U) and a few others should reach those goals without much trouble.

CoD, and GE2 will likely hit those numbers. I highly doubt the rest do.

Oh, and those definitely have to be LTD. I checked over Sinobi's blog, and it seems like he just said the publisher expects to sell _ units.

I wonder if Disney: Infinity will catch on in Japan, like it appears to be in America.

The most viable version of the game is an apparently awful mini-game compilation.

 

[airmangataosenai]

60% of much lower shipment.

Even even with lower shipments, I don't imagine that they shipped fewer than they sold first week for the last game (500k+), so that would still place day-one sales at about 300k. Plus, it's hardly a bomba is it sells through the entire initial stock in a single week (Or close to it). A disappointment perhaps but a bomba that is not.

 

[Yanikun]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 295k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 150k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 1000k

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 1250k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1050k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 195k

Did I miss an inside joke or were both of those errors?

 

[saichi]

Even even with lower shipments, I don't imagine that they shipped fewer than they sold first week for the last game (500k+), so that would still place day-one sales at about 300k. Plus, it's hardly a bomba is it sells through the entire initial stock in a single week (Or close to it). A disappointment perhaps but a bomba that is not.

so you expect LR to open at the same level as XIII-2?

 

[airmangataosenai]

so you expect LR to open at the same level as XIII-2?

Lower but not by as much as some here seem to think it will. I'm thinking maybe close to 400k?

 

[Mario007]

Did I miss an inside joke or were both of those errors?

Thanks, yeah I made a mistake.

 

[L Thammy]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

 

[NotLiquid]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

I just assume its because the game is in the same style as Etrian Odyssey and is from the same director of EO4.

 

[michaelius]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

Both are wrong.

P5 have been in development for years already

Persona Q and Dancing spin-off are near complete so they have been started months before Sega bought them.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

SEGA no doubt is making Atlus milk its IP's. They know Persona is Atlus' biggest brand so new EO with Persona characters and new dancing game with Persona characters and OST.

After not localising Y5, SEGA s loosing good will fast.

 

[L Thammy]

Both are wrong.

P5 have been in development for years already

Persona Q and Dancing spin-off are near complete so they have been started months before Sega bought them.

Isn't Persona Dancing by the guys who make Sega's Project Diva series? Hell of a coincidence.

But, again, I'm not very familiar. I guess I'm completely off the mark then.

 

[duckroll]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

I don't see how the announcements reflect on Sega in any way. There's nothing here which Atlus could not have done without Sega. It looks like Persona Q is developed by EO4 staff. P4U2 has been in development for a while, and is an ongoing collaboration between Atlus and Arc System Work. P4D is a collaboration between Atlus and Dingo, the studio which originally developed the Miku games on PSP and more recently Lovelife for the Vita. Persona 5 has been in development for a long time by the main Persona team.

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

Persona Q is Etrian Odyssey using a more successful brand.

You will best remember this strategy from PS1/PS2 era Square Enix and things like Tactics Ogre -> Final Fantasy Tactics.

 

[Jamix012]

I'm not very familiar with the Megaten series, but I think the announcements support two theories. I think I've seen them mentioned in these threads.

- Japanese developers aren't going to be eager to jump onto to the PS4 unless they're selling primarily to the West, making the generation transition uneasy.

- Sega bought Atlus primarily to make cash cows out of their IPs, which Atlus could not fully do.

I have no idea what Persona Q is supposed to do, though. I guess it's been chibi-fied for the Nintendo audience?

I kind of assumed it chibified as it's easier to make it look good with that style on lower powered hardware.

Persona Q is Etrian Odyssey using a more successful brand.

You will best remember this strategy from PS1/PS2 era Square Enix and things like Tactics Ogre -> Final Fantasy Tactics.

But does it have Social Links?

 

[Nirolak]

Isn't Persona Dancing by the guys who make Sega's Project Diva series? Hell of a coincidence.

But, again, I'm not very familiar. I guess I'm completely off the mark then.

Used to, Sega dumped them and took it internal starting with the 3DS and Vita games.

 

[BlackJace]

Atlus chose the right platform for each game. No complaints at all.

 

[Nirolak]

I would say my main concern for PS4 remains the zero announcements made since the pre-TGS event.

I will humor that there might be a lid on news for now, but once the thing releases I will take the stance I do with all released platforms: If announcements aren't happening, it's because games releasing anytime soon don't exist.

 

[Mpl90]

I would say my main concern for PS4 remains the zero announcements made since the pre-TGS event.

I will humor that there might be a lid on news for now, but once the thing releases I will take the stance I do with all released platforms: If announcements aren't happening, it's because games releasing anytime soon don't exist.

Yeah, it's almost three months without PS4 announcements. Persona 5 could have been a PS3 & PS4 game. Kingdom Hearts 2.5 HD Remix could have been a PS3 & PS4 game (especially considering KH3 is a PS4 game), Shin Gundam Musou could have been a better launch game than the DW8: Extreme Legends, a late porting of an expansion (at a big price, since it's the combo pack, original game + expansion). Not even niche games...zero, niente, nada.

 

[L Thammy]

What problems would come up if support isn't there at the beginning? I'm guessing that it will have to hit eventually as the big franchises target the West; I don't think PS3/PS4 multiplat could be viewed as acceptable for, say, Resident Evil.

 

[Nirolak]

What problems would come up if support isn't there at the beginning? I'm guessing that it will have to hit eventually as the big franchises target the West; I don't think PS3/PS4 multiplat could be viewed as acceptable for, say, Resident Evil.

I don't think the concern is the big games that sell 60-70%+ of their copies in the West, but the market for everything else.

Cross gen titles help build an audience for future exclusives, and the niche console games don't necessarily have a great alternate location if the audience for them isn't enticed over.

Taiko is a nice example of a title whose most logical home failed to attract enough of its audience.

I think this is one thing Western publishers understood quite well and why they all showed up en masse.

In Japan, what's left of the console market is starting to crumble.

If they don't mind that though, the 3DS is healthy and mobile is still growing.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I would say my main concern for PS4 remains the zero announcements made since the pre-TGS event.

I will humor that there might be a lid on news for now but once the thing releases I will take the stance I do with all released platforms: If announcements aren't happening, it's because games releasing anytime soon don't exist.

I think it's safe to take that stance prior to a platform's release if there's enough to suggest it. I don't buy the idea of secret NDAs etc.

There's likely just nothing being announced because there's nothing to announce.

I also don't think that really bodes well for Japanese publishers remaining relevant in the global market.

 

[hongcha]

Er.... I mean I know anything is possible, but saying 3D World won't outsell Pikmin week 1 in a month during the holidays is crazy.

This prediction does not include the week of 3d world's release. I think it will do 200k first week, then 100k additional over the next month.