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[Apophis2036]

What's a price cut going to do without largely compelling software? Software sells hardware, you said it yourself. Hardware doesn't sell hardware. I would expect a price cut in the second half of the year if one were to come.

It would shift the console to people who are interested in it for Nintendo Land, NSMB U and Monster Hunter but are put off by the large launch price.

It would also make it far more attractive to people who are interested in it for the likes of Mario, Mario Kart, WW HD and X.

If i was Iwata i would be trying to get as many consoles sold as possible before PS4 arrives and provides yet another reason for people not to buy the system.

 

[BKK]

Came here expecting the "at this rate Wii U will take X weeks to catch up with XYZ comparisons", leave here not surprised that they haven't been posted.

 

[Dalthien]

The 3DS does not have PS2 level backing from Japanese 3rd parties. The PS3/WiiU/other consoles will still get support which will take away from the 3DS

No, but the PS2 didn't have Nintendo backing it. The 3DS does have the top 3rd-party stuff (MH, DQ), and Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon, Mario Kart, and all the rest of Nintendo's support goes a LONG way towards offsetting the increased 3rd-party support that the PS2 had. Ultimately, the 3DS shouldn't have any problem blowing right past the PS2 install base.

Wii U will honestly be good to get 2 million with how bad most of this year is going to be until the bigger games hit.

Yeah, 2M is actually a decent number (in general) for hardware in Japan. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. But the WiiU will need a REALLY strong 2nd half of the year if it wants to think about approaching 2M for the year.

Is Iwata really happy with WiiU selling 12k per week so close after launch?.

No.

I found his insistence with regards to not price cutting the system quite arrogant at the last Nintendo financial results meeting.

There was nothing arrogant about it. The 3DS launched at a profit/unit, so Nintendo had room to cut the price when it was necessary to do so. The WiiU has launched at a loss/unit, so there's no room to drop the price right now. If manufacturing costs come down fairly quickly (including the UPad), then they may have some room for a drop later in the year (or more likely, some sort of shifting of skus - like maybe cancelling the white sku altogether and dropping the black sku to $300, and maybe changing up the bundle to replacing NintendoLand with some free e-shop games or something to help make the finances work better), which would actually make more sense anyway since there might actually be some software available at that time as well.

 

[donny2112]

leave here not surprised that they haven't been posted.

As you should be considering that their appearance has been rare to sporadic for many years now. You come across as if you think their absence was for another reason, though. Care to share why you think they're not here?

 

[Road]

Came here expecting the "at this rate Wii U will take X weeks to catch up with XYZ comparisons", leave here not surprised that they haven't been posted.

First page: =P

There goes my prediction that WiiU ltd would overtake Vita ltd by the end of february...

Never happening at this rate. Maybe next year, lol.

At this rate only 132 more weeks

Edit: It seems http://garaph.info/vsarbitrarytwosystems.html is broken.

Edit2: Nope. I was trying the name "WIU" or "Wii U" but it is "WiiU"

At this week's rates, WiiU catches up to PSV in 108.0 weeks (March 2, 2015). If PSV stopped selling and WiiU continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 31.8 weeks (September 14, 2013).​

 

[shinra-bansho]

As you should be considering that their appearance has been rare to sporadic for many years now. You come across as if you think their absence was for another reason, though. Care to share why you think they're not here?

I think in earlier MC threads in the Wii U's life they were posted quite regularly by JJS.

Anyway a quick look at Garaph says that the Wii U is where the PS3 was at 18 weeks, the PSV was at 29 weeks, the Wii was at 4 weeks and the 3DS was at 4 weeks if someone is interested.

EDIT: oh I misunderstood what was asked. Oh well.

 

[timetokill]

Wii U is in for a very rough couple of months at best. Really wonder what plans Nintendo has if they need to take a drastic action in the short term.

Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale is simply the least desirable multi-franchise brawler yet released.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

Does anybody know when Sony is going to post it's Q3 results?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Does anybody know when Sony is going to post it's Q3 results?

Roughly 6 hours by my count.

 

[michaelius]

[3DS] Hardware - 7000K
[WIU] Hardware - 1600K
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 3400k
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3200K
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1500K
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2400K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1000K
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 900K
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 800K

Edit: It seems http://garaph.info/vsarbitrarytwosystems.html is broken.

I used classic stand alone calculator

 

[BKK]

As you should be considering that their appearance has been rare to sporadic for many years now. You come across as if you think their absence was for another reason, though. Care to share why you think they're not here?

Oh please, it happens with every new hardware launch, do I really have to search out 3DS, Vita, PS3, Wii launch comparisons?

 

[Mileena]

Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale is simply the least desirable multi-franchise brawler yet released.

what's wrong with second place?

 

[?oe?oe]

It would shift the console to people who are interested in it for Nintendo Land, NSMB U and Monster Hunter but are put off by the large launch price.

It would also make it far more attractive to people who are interested in it for the likes of Mario, Mario Kart, WW HD and X.

If i was Iwata i would be trying to get as many consoles sold as possible before PS4 arrives and provides yet another reason for people not to buy the system.

I don't think those titles are good enough for a price drop, unfortunately. It would still increase sales but by how much? I think the price drop should coincide with another major release where it can make a bigger impact - a double incentive. Maybe with Zelda, at the least?

 

[timetokill]

what's wrong with second place?

2nd place? Isn't it selling worse than the Tatsunoko vs Capcom, SF vs Tekken, etc. games as well?

 

[donny2112]

I think in earlier MC threads in the Wii U's life they were posted quite regularly by JJS.

Thought it had been longer, but found his "in terms of" posts for some earlier threads, not the "stop selling/catch up." That's probably what you're thinking of.

EDIT: oh I misunderstood what was asked. Oh well.

On a practical level, the Wii U probably hasn't been selling enough to make much increase on the "in terms of" platforms, anyways.

First page: =P



Edit: It seems http://garaph.info/vsarbitrarytwosystems.html is broken.

Edit2: Nope. I was trying the name "WIU" or "Wii U" but it is "WiiU"

At this week's rates, WiiU catches up to PSV in 108.0 weeks (March 2, 2015). If PSV stopped selling and WiiU continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 31.8 weeks (September 14, 2013).​

Thanks, Road!

Oh please, it happens with every new hardware launch, do I really have to search out 3DS, Vita, PS3, Wii launch comparisons?

Apparently hasn't been done with Wii U by JJS, yet, though. Now cut the bull. If you care about the metric that much, Road has now given you a means to get it. If you have something else to say, be plain about it.

 

[pieatorium]

2nd place? Isn't it selling worse than the Tatsunoko vs Capcom, SF vs Tekken, etc. games as well?

Yeah it's more like 15th place in a race with only 10 runners

 

[test_account]

Apparently hasn't been done with Wii U by JJS, yet, though. Now cut the bull. If you care about the metric that much, Road has now given you a means to get it. If you have something else to say, be plain about it.

He has actually posted it a few times (like here and here). I dont think there is any special reason why he havnt posted it every week though, i havnt seen him posting much lately, so maybe he is busy with other things.

 

[BKK]

Thanks road

I think it's already obvious what I'm saying; there's a direct correlation between the frequency that posters post statistics, and how those statistics favour their viewpoint.

 

[metalslimer]

Thanks road

I think it's already obvious what I'm saying; there's a direct correlation between the frequency that posters post statistics, and how those statistics favour their viewpoint.

I don't think those stats have been posted in a long time way before Wii U came out. I'm not even sure if they were done for Vita.

No, but the PS2 didn't have Nintendo backing it. The 3DS does have the top 3rd-party stuff (MH, DQ), and Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon, Mario Kart, and all the rest of Nintendo's support goes a LONG way towards offsetting the increased 3rd-party support that the PS2 had. Ultimately, the 3DS shouldn't have any problem blowing right past the PS2 install base.

Er...I was responding as to why the 3DS will never sell 10 million in a single year. The 3DS will easily surpass the PS2 by the end of its lifecycle.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

DQ7 - http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B009Z5XKJO/

Sold out on Amazon, new stock on Feb 10.

 

[donny2112]

I think it's already obvious what I'm saying; there's a direct correlation between the frequency that posters post statistics, and how those statistics favour their viewpoint.

Thanks for being plain with your point. Speaking out of the side of the mouth irks me.

He has actually posted it a few times (like here and here).

Different metric.

I dont think there is any special reason why he havnt posted it every week though, i havnt seen him posting much lately, so maybe he is busy with other things.

I don't think those stats have been posted in a long time way before Wii U came out. I'm not even sure if they were done for Vita.

Yeah, there's a plethora of reasons as to why, including the possibility BKK mentioned. I just don't find the reason BKK mentioned to be particularly high on the list.

 

[Dalthien]

Er...I was responding as to why the 3DS will never sell 10 million in a single year. The 3DS will easily surpass the PS2 by the end of its lifecycle.

Ha ha, my bad. Yeah, 10M would be an insane milestone to reach.

 

[vareon]

DQ7 - http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B009Z5XKJO/

Sold out on Amazon, new stock on Feb 10.

It begins.

 

[metalslimer]

Is DQ7 on the eshop?

 

[Snowden's Secret]

Am I crazy for thinking Wii U sales are not good, but fine? They aren't shrinking versus the market (aka if every other hardware drops 10% the Wii U isn't dropping 20%) even though it hasn't had a single game release in months. It's performing about as well in terms of gross units against it's nearest competitor (PS3) despite the weaker library. And unlike Vita, it's got a strong future lineup of exclusive, known popular series.

tldr I think 12K is horrible but I also don't think that's a long term indicator of platform health or performance.

 

[Exterminieren]

Ah, I never tire of people underestimating Pokemon sales. 2.9 mill? Please.

[3DS] Hardware - 6900K
[WIU] Hardware - 1500K
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4600K
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3700K
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2300K
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2100K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 900K
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1100K
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 700K

 

[donny2112]

Is DQ7 on the eshop?

Thought it was. Not sure if something's mentioned about it on the Nintendo site for it. The text Google can translate doesn't seem to mention it, though.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/software/ad7j/index.html

 

[metalslimer]

[3DS] Hardware -6400k
[WIU] Hardware - 1800k
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4700k
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3800k
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1500k
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1600k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 -900k
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 900k
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 450k

 

[Four_Chamber]

Few comments:

1. The Vita continues to circle the drain. Unlike the 3DS, I don't really see any feasible way for it to escape the inevitable. We know its basically irrelevant in the West- Sony probably hoped/prayed it would gain traction in Japan. It clearly hasn't based on numbers but I doubt Soul Sacrifice will have any staying power. Too bad, as its always sad to see the signs of a dying video game system.

2. WiiU clearly not doing well but its WAY too early to write its obituary. The Vita has been around for a full year with only a faint pulse, give the WiiU some time. I'm not optimistic about it in the long run but that's beside the point.

3. PSABR was a horrible, horrible mistake. I'm not sure why people were so excited about it here but its clearly not resonated with the general gamers who determine whether a game will succeed or not. Some of its failure is due to the failure of the Vita for sure but it was a horribly managed IP.

 

[MasterSheen]

[3DS] Hardware - 6500k
[WIU] Hardware - 1800k
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 3500k
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4000k
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2000k
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1600k
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1000k
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 800k
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 650k

 

[pieatorium]

Am I crazy for thinking Wii U sales are not good, but fine? They aren't shrinking versus the market (aka if every other hardware drops 10% the Wii U isn't dropping 20%) even though it hasn't had a single game release in months. It's performing about as well in terms of gross units against it's nearest competitor (PS3) despite the weaker library. And unlike Vita, it's got a strong future lineup of exclusive, known popular series.

tldr I think 12K is horrible but I also don't think that's a long term indicator of platform health or performance.

Like you said in the end the sales aren't fine they are bad. There is definitely a better future in store than the Vita eventually but it is going to be months before any real pickup.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Thought it was. Not sure if something's mentioned about it on the Nintendo site for it. The text Google can translate doesn't seem to mention it, though.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/software/ad7j/index.html

Yes, it is.

 

[metalslimer]

Am I crazy for thinking Wii U sales are not good, but fine? They aren't shrinking versus the market (aka if every other hardware drops 10% the Wii U isn't dropping 20%) even though it hasn't had a single game release in months. It's performing about as well in terms of gross units against it's nearest competitor (PS3) despite the weaker library. And unlike Vita, it's got a strong future lineup of exclusive, known popular series.

tldr I think 12K is horrible but I also don't think that's a long term indicator of platform health or performance.

The PS3 is 6 years old, so I don't take it performing close to the PS3 as doing well. You could make the same argument for the PSP.

 

[pieatorium]

3. PSABR was a horrible, horrible mistake. I'm not sure why people were so excited about it here but its clearly not resonated with the general gamers who determine whether a game will succeed or not. Some of its failure is due to the failure of the Vita for sure but it was a horribly managed IP.

Agree 100%, incredibly mismanaged overall. Bunch of characters people would want in a game like this nowhere to be seen, leaks and poor management of reveals as well as the advertising/PR being meh.

I think it would have been better money spent to just create their own fighting franchise and have a couple of first party PS characters as special characters/unoocks/dlc. Probably would have been a ton cheaper too without needing all that random licensing of characters too.

 

[darkside31337]

You know I just realized they actually aren't putting out a Wii U version of MLB2K13 despite having one of NBA2K13.

Is this really surprising? They will have the NBA license for a long, long time. The MLB license feels like they reupped for the very short term, if this years isnt profitable even with the much lowered licensing fee I can't see how they decide to invest in the series for new platforms.

 

[DrWong]

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

[3DS] Hardware - 8000K
[WIU] Hardware - 2100K
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4800K
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4400K
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1800K
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1900K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 900K
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 950K
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 650K

 

[MasterSheen]

When should we be getting line pics?

 

[matm666]

It would shift the console to people who are interested in it for Nintendo Land, NSMB U and Monster Hunter but are put off by the large launch price.

It would also make it far more attractive to people who are interested in it for the likes of Mario, Mario Kart, WW HD and X.

If i was Iwata i would be trying to get as many consoles sold as possible before PS4 arrives and provides yet another reason for people not to buy the system.

Expect a price cut when the PS4 arrives that and a big games possibly Mario Kart and that would be the rason for people no to buy the PS4

 

[Road]

Demon Gaze did pretty good for a very niche game, no?

It is selling above expectations is all we know. It seems the second shipment is selling out in some places: Amazon is indicating new stock on February 10 and one Sofmap store also said it was sold out again.

I don't know much about its niche. I think it's a dungeon crawler (?) and Etrian Odyssey can sell 150k, so there's more than a 50k market out there somewhere.

Edit...

Speaking of expectations, Falcom raised their forecasts for the next quarter saying Trails in the Sky HD sold way above expectations (How low were those expectations?!) and that Ys Memories of Celceta and Nayuta no Kiseki continued to sell well.

And by raise forecasts I mean they expected to lose 111 million yen, now they expect to lose zero.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Predictions

[3DS] Hardware - 8.8 million
[WIU] Hardware - 2.7 million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 5.4 million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4.5 million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.2 million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.8 million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.1 million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 850k
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 537k

Really a shot in the dark here, that's what makes it fun; we know basically nothing about Wii U's 2013 lineup and we know little about MH4, so few objective facts to base on our predictions.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

P-LEAGUE

[3DS] Hardware - 6,567,890
[WIU] Hardware - 1,678,901
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4,321,098
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3,456,789
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1,678,901
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1,567,890
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 987,65
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 901,234
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 567,890

Are Wii Fit U and Wii Party U set to be released before this summer? Game & Wario is probably coming out in March as planned, i dont know when Pikmin 3 is out (probably before July though ).

Upcoming Nintendo lineup so far:

03.28.13
-Game & Wario

Spring
-Wii U Panorama View

Spring/Summer
-Pikmin 3
-The Wonderful 101
-Wii Fit U

Summer
-Wii Party U

Fall
-The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

TBD
-Bayonetta 2
-Lego City: Undercover
-Mario Kart
-Rayman Legends
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem
-Super Mario
-Super Smash Bros.
-The Legend of Zelda
-X
-Yarn Yoshi

 

[metalslimer]

Predictions

[3DS] Hardware - 8.8 million
[WIU] Hardware - 4.6 million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 5.4 million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4.5 million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.2 million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.8 million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.1 million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 850k
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 537k

Really a shot in the dark here, that's what makes it fun; we know basically nothing about Wii U's 2013 lineup and we know little about MH4, so few objective facts to base on our predictions.

What we know about the Wii U lineup up till March alone tells us 4.6 million is impossible.

Reposting from Road on the previous page:

2007 Wii: 3.6 million
2007 PS3: 1.2 million
2002 GC: 1.0 millon
2012 Vita: 0.7 million

 

[LOCK]

I expect the Wii U will recover with new games, but I wonder what secret plans Nintendo has that will captivate Japan again. I don't think any of their current evergreens will match the Wii's, and at this point it either has to be reinvigorated from third party exclusives or new games from Nintendo. Their year end report, and next fiscal year forcast should shed some insight in just how aggressive they will be after March.

I think the 3DS has baselined at 70k. Depending on the DQ7 bump and the subsequent weeks, that should be an indication if the 3DS will do 6m or more this year.

 

[donny2112]

Reposting from Road on the previous page:

2007 Wii: 3.6 million

And that was with shortages until August for the system.

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

[3DS] Hardware - 6500K
[WIU] Hardware - 2000K
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4000K
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 4000K
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2112K
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2000K
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 725K
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1000K
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 750K

 

[bigtroyjon]

Think I'll start including 2011 in week 8 since that is when 3DS launched. At that point All Handhelds will become All Current Handhelds as I won't include DS.

PSP+PSV(2012 YTD)=255,185
PSP+PSV(2013 YTD)=185,150(-27.4%)

Looking ahead to week 6, PSP+PSV did 29,799 in 2012.

3DS(2012 YTD)=582,254
3DS(2013 YTD)=606,581(+4.2%)

Looking ahead to week 6, 3DS did 67,558 in 2012.

All Handhelds(2012 YTD)=837,439
All Handhelds(2013 YTD)=791,731(-5.5%)

 

[airmangataosenai]

[3DS] Hardware - 5.9 million
[WIU] Hardware - 1.1 million
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4.5 million
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.7 million
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 1.5 million
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 1.2 million
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.1 million
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 400k
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 250k

Safe bets all around, the only semi-interesting prediction I'm making is a dramatic underperformance by MH4.

 

[meta4]

Disastrous week. It will be interesting to see how true the weak home console market statements in Japan are once the PS4 is released. If it performs as abysmally as WiiU we could come to that conclusion. If not then WiiU may have missed the bus somewhere...

 

[Fess]

If manufacturing costs come down fairly quickly (including the UPad), then they may have some room for a drop later in the year (or more likely, some sort of shifting of skus - like maybe cancelling the white sku altogether and dropping the black sku to $300, and maybe changing up the bundle to replacing NintendoLand with some free e-shop games or something to help make the finances work better), which would actually make more sense anyway since there might actually be some software available at that time as well.

In Sweden it has already been dropped below "$300" or 2990KR at the important retailers. Yup. Still not selling...
And still zero advertizing. Nothing. Not one single TV ad, newspaper ad or sport event ad. Why? No idea. It's like they want it to fail.

 

[BriBri]

Is DQ7 on the eshop?

Yes. It's the same price as the physical (¥6,090). It's the first game with it's own icon when you log on the eShop so definite prominence. Be interesting if it beats Animal Crossing next week.

Edit: and downloading!

 

[walking fiend]

Wii U is in for a very rough couple of months at best. Really wonder what plans Nintendo has if they need to take a drastic action in the short term.

Why are people so suddenly feeling that Wii U is going to continue selling like this after spring ends?