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Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2012 (Dec 10 - Dec 16)

What if Valve throws out next year its SteamBox - that I gather has been confirmed to launch in 2013 - at a competitive price with HL3 as an exclusive game and all of its huge Steam catalogue?
That could change possibly scenarios in an unpredictable way.

I mean, aside from a few rumours we know nothing official about new upcoming consoles - prices, features, launch line-up -, so any long term predictions without any element to base them on, other than recent market's trends, atm are a shot in the dark imo.

you believe in SteamBox or are you joking?
 

Kacho

Gold Member
I threw together a few charts to compare Wii U's first two weeks performance to other consoles, for those of you interested:

launchsalescm.png


launchsaleswk.png


launchsalespc.png


Of course it's far too early to make any definitive conclusions, and all the consoles had different launch circumstances (holidays/not holidays, shortages/no shortages, etc.), but the console seems to be doing around average on all measures.

Man, I hate being color blind. :/
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Still talking about the point about 3DS support next year
The Q1 relative lull is probably also due to logistic / timing reasons ( many titles announced very early still being released). I still remember we were talking about Square Enix not having anything for the platform after Bravely Default, and then DQVII got announced. :p I repeat: in Japan time between announcements and releases are usually short, and they're becoming even shorter.

In short: important announcements from third parties on 3DS will come in the future ( even for the next future, Spring), sales on both fronts are too high to be ignored.
 

guek

Banned
Any guesses as to when 3DS will pass PSP LTD?

Or is 10 million sales from here on out too tough to predict.
 
Still talking about the point about 3DS support next year
The Q1 relative lull is probably also due to logistic / timing reasons ( many titles announced very early still being released). I still remember we were talking about Square Enix not having anything for the platform after Bravely Default, and then DQVII got announced. :p I repeat: in Japan time between announcements and releases are usually short, and they're becoming even shorter.

If you look at Animal Crossing: Wild World sales after Christmas, you can understand why Nintendo left January empty :p
 
Still talking about the point about 3DS support next year
The Q1 relative lull is probably also due to logistic / timing reasons ( many titles announced very early still being released). I still remember we were talking about Square Enix not having anything for the platform after Bravely Default, and then DQVII got announced. :p I repeat: in Japan time between announcements and releases are usually short, and they're becoming even shorter.
We will have to wait and see. The fact that S-E recently talked about their pillars of success for the future being HD games, MMOs and iOS. I don't think 3DS was mentioned at all. Although i still anticipate dq11 to likely go 3DS.

If you look at Animal Crossing: Wild World sales after Christmas, you can understand why Nintendo left January empty :p
I doubt anyone was expecting new leaf to perform like it is. Although Animal Crossing, dragon quest 7 and monster hunter 4 wouldve been a sure massacre for anyone trying to release titles in between.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
We will have to wait and see. The fact that S-E recently talked about their pillars of success for the future being HD games, MMOs and iOS. I don't think 3DS was mentioned at all. Although i still anticipate dq11 to likely go 3DS.

DQXI is going to be for 3DS. There's no doubt at all, and still...it doesn't seem SE don't consider the platform as a pillar for success since they're releasing a full-flegged remake of the biggest Dragon Quest ever, contentwise. XD
 
DQXI is going to be for 3DS. There's no doubt at all, and still...it doesn't seem SE don't consider the platform as a pillar for success since they're releasing a full-flegged remake of the biggest Dragon Quest ever, contentwise. XD
I was more speaking about when development of DQ11 gets started when I expressed a very very slight uncertainty. Also while DQ is big support, Square Enix gave a lot more support to the DS with a lot of different titles, ips, spinoffs and remakes. We shall see in the end but it seems like their focus will not directly be on 3DS as it was for the DS for a few years.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I was more speaking about when development of DQ11 gets started when I expressed a very very slight uncertainty. Also while DQ is big support, Square Enix gave a lot more support to the DS with a lot of different titles, ips, spinoffs and remakes. We shall see in the end but it seems like their focus will not directly be on 3DS as it was for the DS for a few years.

Well, if you look at Square's lineup for the first two years, they've released a lot of titles, and for the next future they have Dragon Quest VII and Gyrozetter RPG. It's obvious there will be more in the future for 3DS. And this talk is even more relevant for other third parties. I'm expecting a good amount of announcements for Spring / beyond that, there's no reason to not expect it.

EDIT: I think one of these announcements will be done in the next 3DS Direct, like the other two times ( Layton 6 and Jam with the Band)
 
Are those good numbers for PL vs AA?
It's pretty poor compared to the solo games in each franchise.

Here's its early performance compared to Layton 5 and Ace Attorney Investigations 2, the lowest performers of each franchise (unless you look at the GBA-only sales of the earlier AA games).
PLvsAA

It would look worse compared to AA if we were only looking at the mainline games.
You mean handheld.
3DS, 3DSLL
 

Road

Member
On paper, the Vita doesn't seem like a bad idea at all. It's a more powerful followup to a modestly-successful handheld released in a market that really likes its handheld gaming systems. Why shouldn't it do okay, at the very least?

But Sony just couldn't get the PSP audience to transition over to it for various reasons. And that's the danger of trying to extrapolate the previous generation's performance into the next one. I mean, one can believe that Microsoft and Sony's next consoles will be better versions of their current ones and everyone will migrate over to them for lots of sales, but the gaming business is a funny place and it doesn't always work out that way. So it's best not to try to predict too far in advance when data is in such short supply.

On paper, Vita doesn't have Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil, Yakuza etc. etc. etc.

The only worse idea than the Vita, on paper, was the original Xbox.

Yeah I've noticed this. I mean Q1 isnt that empty because of MH4s delay but I'm sure nintendo and 3rd parties were scheduling around Capcom dropping MH4. I think one of the worrying things is when Square Enix mentioned their plans for future releases and their three pillars were HD gaming, MMO and iOS. 3DS was not mentioned in their plans at all. I think thats worrisome for Nintendo and probably square enix as well since they are ignoring the dominant platform in Japan.

"HD Games" for Square Enix are all games that are neither MMOs nor social/mobile games.
 

muu

Member
On paper, Vita doesn't have Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil, Yakuza etc. etc. etc.

The only worse idea than the Vita, on paper, was the original Xbox.

But it's got FFXHD (with just a logo)! And Bioshock (not even a logo)! And a tech demo of Metal Gear! And it runs MHP3rd!

It's funny how these red flags were somehow pushed as selling points for the handheld.
 

tuffy

Member
On paper, Vita doesn't have Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Kingdom Hearts, Resident Evil, Yakuza etc. etc. etc.

The only worse idea than the Vita, on paper, was the original Xbox.

It should go without saying that sales follow software, but there's still the mentality that a better collection of specs is the better console. Perhaps even Sony believed that if they build it, developers and gamers would come. But we know it doesn't always work out that way.
 

Celine

Member
I don't think any of NeoGAF is expecting the Wii U to die at the hands of Sony/Microsoft. Hoping, maybe, but I'm sure nobody has been deluded enough yet to actually expect this to happen.
There is lot of different people on GAF.
Even ones that have never played a Super Mario Bros game as crazy as that could be ( at least on my eyes).
 

ohlawd

Member
Here's its early performance compared to Layton 5 and Ace Attorney Investigations 2, the lowest performers of each franchise (unless you look at the GBA-only sales of the earlier AA games)

Ahhhh man.

I wonder where it'll end up in sales a couple of months from now.
 

Busaiku

Member
Ahhhh man.

I wonder where it'll end up in sales a couple of months from now.

It's getting a boost from the Holiday season, while the other 2 titles were late January or March (launch title).
It will see relatively minor declines in comparison, given that.
 

donny2112

Member
I'll be Debbie Downer Devil's Advocate: Nintendo is staggering it's supply more, but in absolute numbers, the Wii U is only 40K up from the launch of the system we're all celebrating at the wake of now.

And if we were thinking Vita was in trouble due to its LTD at its 2nd week instead of how it got to that LTD and when that LTD was set, you'd have a point.

I predict it'll be < 100k next week, probably in the mid to high 90s. We can't do ban bets but I'd bet something, whatever you'd like. /shrug

So 95-98K is reasonable, but 101K is totally out of the question.


Nice.

this means it was the highest or lowest drop off?

It's the line in the middle without a third point.
 

Road

Member
I'm still surprised Vita hasn't passed 360's LTD. I thought it would have by now over there.

http://garaph.info/vsarbitrarytwosystems.php?sys[0]=PSV&gr[0]=&tra[0]=Fam&sys[1]=X360&gr[1]=&tra[1]=

"At this week's rates, PSV catches up to X360 in 41.8 weeks (October 5, 2013). If X360 stopped selling and PSV continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 41.8 weeks (October 5, 2013)."

Edit: just saw Garaph isn't pulling Xbox 360 sales for this week, which is why both situations end in the same date.
 
These 3DS sales have got to please investors, right? The stock price (7974) has been in the gutter for a while, if this can't give it a boost, then I doubt the Wii U will. Maybe after the next fiscal report we will see something.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
In the meanwhile, Animal Crossing is sold at 7,200 Yen on Amazon, when its retail price should be 4,800 Yen :lol
 

guek

Banned
These 3DS sales have got to please investors, right? The stock price (7974) has been in the gutter for a while, if this can't give it a boost, then I doubt the Wii U will. Maybe after the next fiscal report we will see something.

Nintendo unfortunately doesn't exist in a Japanese bubble. From my layman's point of view, it seems like investors are only going to be happy once they start posting considerable profit margins again. I don't expect nintendo's stock to start to recover until Q3/Q4 of next year.
 
Nintendo unfortunately doesn't exist in a Japanese bubble. From my layman's point of view, it seems like investors are only going to be happy once they start posting considerable profit margins again. I don't expect nintendo's stock to start to recover until Q3/Q4 of next year.

And that only depends on if they have to do a slash on Wii U's pricing. It seems like for the past 2 years everytime something goes right for Nintendo another thing has to go wrong. Hopefully for them once they get Wii U and 3DS stabilized that can start posting healthy profits again. Not Wii/DS years of course, but healthy.
 

n64coder

Member
Is December a big shopping season for Japan? I didn't think so because I thought Japan didn't really celebrate Christmas but maybe they have adopted some western traditions?

Is it like in the US where retailers do a huge chunk of their yearly sales at this time of the year?
 

donny2112

Member
Is December a big shopping season for Japan? I didn't think so because I thought Japan didn't really celebrate Christmas but maybe they have adopted some western traditions?

Is it like in the US where retailers do a huge chunk of their yearly sales at this time of the year?

Christmas is celebrated, but in a much more muted fashion. However, the big holiday is New Year's, which is one week after Christmas. Therefore, December is still huge for Japan, just not for the same reasons as in the U.S. It also pushes the week after New Year's, when the kids spend their gift cards, toward a big bump for kid-friendly games.
 

liger05

Member
What do people think Sony would of been expecting for holiday season. They must of expected some sort of bump. 30 - 40k a week or as low as 20k?
 

LOCK

Member
Nintendo unfortunately doesn't exist in a Japanese bubble. From my layman's point of view, it seems like investors are only going to be happy once they start posting considerable profit margins again. I don't expect nintendo's stock to start to recover until Q3/Q4 of next year.

And that only depends on if they have to do a slash on Wii U's pricing. It seems like for the past 2 years everytime something goes right for Nintendo another thing has to go wrong. Hopefully for them once they get Wii U and 3DS stabilized that can start posting healthy profits again. Not Wii/DS years of course, but healthy.

With the recent devaluation of the Yen, Japanese exporters should fair better.
 

Dalthien

Member
So with both Tales of Hearts and Soul Sacrifice hitting on the same day, what are the chances that's when Sony drops the price to at least try to end the FY on a high note? They probably aren't going to have a bigger day for software for a long time (if ever).

It would kill their financials for the year though (the price drop would have to be recorded as a loss on all existing unsold stock). So it would depend how their fiscal year-end numbers are shaping up overall.

If the numbers are going to be shitty anyway, then yeah - throw in the price drop and just roll the shitty results in with the already other shitty results, and get all the bad news out of the way in the same fiscal year. But if they are trying to show some moderately decent fiscal year numbers to try to inspire some confidence in investors (and they really need to do this after all these years of losses), then there's no way they will want to throw in a huge loss right at the end of the fiscal year to drag down their full-year results, which might have looked okay otherwise.
 

liger05

Member
With one average size game for whole december ?

I know they had no major release but lets say they were doing 7-10k prior to holiday season. Surely it being holiday season alone means they would of expected some sort of bump. I cant accept that 15k would of been that figure, surely they expected more.
 
With the recent devaluation of the Yen, Japanese exporters should fair better.

Yeah, Nintendo is really being hurt 2 ways by the super strong Yen. One is the losses incurred (currency losses were ~$550 million in 2010, ~$350 million last year, and ~$300 million in the first 6 months of this year), and the other is it makes it difficult for Nintendo to cut prices outside of Japan like they desperately need to (sales outside of Japan for the first 6 months accounted for 81% of sales in 2010, 79% in 2011, and 63% in 2012). Sounds like the Bank of Japan is going to be made to set their printing presses to DS, so that should help Nintendo in the next year both with profits and western sales.
 

Cipherr

Member
14./16. [3DS] Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-Tachi Kara Nigekire! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.07.05} (¥5.040) - 19.221 / 282.623 (+67%)

This.... game right here... this freaking game man. What was its first week? Those legs are ridiculous. 3DS is starting to really build a nice number of 300k+ sold games. That middle tier of 250k+ sold is very important IMO for a console. There has to be some populated wiggle room in between bombing and a blockbuster.


Good numbers for 3DS, but are people forgetting that the whole market is shrinking and 3DS is not able to fill the gap left by PSV?

I dunno man... Does anyone have that info about Handheld sales last year to date versus this years handheld sales? Last time I saw someone post that, handheld sales were slightly below 2011 numbers but the 3DS was pulling all of the weight in 2012 to keep it even, while the PSP had taken a nosedive.
 

Celine

Member
I dunno man... Does anyone have that info about Handheld sales last year to date versus this years handheld sales? Last time I saw someone post that, handheld sales were slightly below 2011 numbers but the 3DS was pulling all of the weight in 2012 to keep it even, while the PSP had taken a nosedive.
Page 4 this thread

This week starts including Vita in the 2011 comparisons and obviously that will make things look worse for Sony and for total handhelds.

PSP+PSV(2011 YTD)=2,240,144
PSP+PSV(2012 YTD)=1,440,935(-35.7%)

Looking ahead to Week 51, PSP+PSV did 173,600 in 2011.

3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=4,239,579
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=4,903,784(+15.7%)3 weeks ago was 27%

Looking ahead to week 50, 3DS+DS did 496,596 in 2011.

All handhelds(2011 YTD)=6,479,723
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=6,344,719 (-2.1%)Once again down from last year, doesn't look like it will reverse that.

Some extra info looking ahead, total sales for 2011.
PSP=2,079,152
PSP+PSV=2,519,138

3DS=4,282,142
3DS+DS=4,939,929

All handhelds=7,459,067(Need to average 557.2K a week to match last year)
 
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