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[Aostia]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't console gaming as a whole on a sharp decline in Europe?

Well, all the markets (US, Japan and PAL) are suffering (probably due to the economical situation) compared to the "golden age" of DS + Wii sales (that set records for specific periods), but UK suffered a lot. French and German markets in the recent analysis were almost as big as UK one, especially because of the big (-40% YoY) decrease of the market in UK (more than an increase in their respective countries)
So, UK market is still the biggest market in PAL territories, but not as it was few years ago.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Wii U - 126,916

New Super Mario Bros. U + Nintendo Land + Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate = 135,721

I think we may also consider Taiko drum master's good sales since, even though it's a Wii game technically, it's playable on Wii U as well thanks to BC.

 

[guek]

Well, all the markets (US, Japan and PAL) are suffering (probably due to the economical situation) compared to the "golden age" of DS + Wii sales (that set records for specific periods), but UK suffered a lot. French and German markets in the recent analysis were almost as big as UK one, especially because of the big (-40% YoY) decrease of the market in UK (more than an increase in their respective countries)
So, UK market is still the biggest market in PAL territories, but not as it was few years ago.

Ah I see. That's more or less what I surmised, thanks.

 

[Kazerei]

01./04. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 213.329 / 1.722.709 (+85%)

AC will be the first to hit 2 million for sure. Suck it, trinity.

 

[blurrygil]

What do you reckon? Kirby? Jigglypuff? Birdo?

A Mii shrugging w/ txt that reads: "I know nothing about sales figures" >

 

[ohlawd]

A Mii shrugging w/ txt that reads: "I know nothing about sales figures" >

I like this one.

Next week will be very interesting that's for sure.

 

[Joseph Flemming]

That's a horrible proposition.

Well, I said interesting... Don't know if it would be horrible, or a splendid idea. Just trying to throw some ideas out there.

 

[Regulus Tera]

What's the likelihood Animal Crossing will surpass NSMB2 by the end of the year?

 

[Jamix012]

What's the likelihood Animal Crossing will surpass NSMB2 by the end of the year?

1 trillion% according to Famitsu. Still probably high 90% for Media Create.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Handhelds continue to impress.

 

[metalslimer]

What's the likelihood Animal Crossing will surpass NSMB2 by the end of the year?

It already has in Famitsu.

Scrap the project this size after one year on the market? Good God, I sure hope you are a businessman

Yeah if he was working for Sony he could have stopped them from making the horrible business decision to develop Vita in the first place.

 

[Nightstick11]

Are we talking about just Japan, or worldwide?

If you're only talking about Japan, I agree. If you're talking worldwide, I'd put my money on the 720 outselling the Wii-U for sure.

It is pretty much physically impossible for the 720 to outsell the Wii U.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Handhelds continue to impress.

You mean handheld.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

The US to MS

What if Valve throws out next year its SteamBox - that I gather has been confirmed to launch in 2013 - at a competitive price with HL3 as an exclusive game and all of its huge Steam catalogue?
That could change possibly scenarios in an unpredictable way.

I mean, aside from a few rumours we know nothing official about new upcoming consoles - prices, features, launch line-up -, so any long term predictions without any element to base them on, other than recent market's trends, atm are a shot in the dark imo.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

There's no point in trying to save the vita in its current form. Even the 3DS NPD numbers for november were not that great, especially compared to the DS' heydays. A high quality game of one of those you listed or a Gears or ME would move some units, but nothing major as it currently stands. Imagine though if Apple released an official attachable pad (like wikipad) and those games released on iOS? I might be wrong, but I think the market would eat that up. I would get an ipad myself.

IMO, unless it's a $99 handheld, the western market is mainly interested in tablets and smartphones. Nintendo can still get away with dedicate gaming machines for probably another generation, but not Sony. If Sony was to try to save the vita they would have to follow the market trend and try to to use psm to kick start their app store. The problem is psm is a bigger joke than the vita, Sony has no presence in the tablet space, and their financials can't take a risk this big.

IMO, the best course of action for Sony, given the situation they find themselves in, is to slowly let the vita die and focus on their xperia line up for phones and

While I agree with what you're saying to an extent. If you had combined DS+3DS sales for novembera npd it wouldnt be that bad. One of the biggest issues is that the DS is still selling pretty well in america. Nintendo is trying to kill the DS off for the 3DS to succeed maybe with the price drop and better marketing it can do better. However 3DS wouldnt be doing that bad in the west if sales of the DS transfered over to 3DS.

AC will be the first to hit 2 million for sure. Suck it, trinity.

Yeah who knew AC wouldve been the first title to do so.

 

[metalslimer]

It is pretty much physically impossible for the 720 to outsell the Wii U.

Not at all. The console market is going to shrink even further this gen in Japan and the 360 is pretty close to the Wii in America even when the Wii had all those record breaking years. Unless you are expecting Wii like sales from the Wii U or Durango to completely bomb there is a good chance it could. Now I think some people's predictions that both the Durango and PS4 will outsell Wii U is likely not to happen with the direct competition between those two. My prediction in the end is that all 3 will be within 10 million of each other LTD in the end as other markets begin to destroy the console market little by little with each passing year.

 

[Regulus Tera]

It already has in Famitsu.

Mario is dead. From now on, Tom Nook will be Nintendo's mascot forever.

Surprisingly appropriate too.

 

[Aostia]

Yeah, perhaps 'for sure' was bad phrasing as I don't mean it'll be a whitewash, I just mean that's where I'd place my bet. Japan will go to Nintendo, The US to MS and Europe remains to be seen, depending on what Sony have to offer. That's my uneducated gut feeling anyway. It's certainly going to be a very interesting generation, no matter how the chips fall.

I agree. I'd just say that PAL and Japan could end being moderatly balanced between Nintnedo and Sony, while US will probably be lead by MS, but it's really hard to bet up to now, especially without firm release dates and specifics about the next platforms

We'll see!

 

[Count Dookkake]

You mean handheld.

No, I definitely meant plural.

One can be impressed by spectacular failure.

 

[AniHawk]

wii u sales are only slightly better where the vita's were last year around this time. yikes.

 

[metalslimer]

I agree. I'd just say that PAL and Japan could end being moderatly balanced between Nintnedo and Sony, while US will probably be lead by MS, but it's really hard to bet up to now, especially without firm release dates and specifics about the next platforms

We'll see!

Looking at the launch reception to the Wii U in Pal territories I wouldn't bet on that being a close one unless Sony fucks it up (extremely possible considering its Sony). I think PAL will be an easy Sony victory next generation and the US is where things will be decided.

wii u sales are only slightly better where the vita's were last year around this time. yikes.

Oh you.....

Spoiler

some people are going to take this seriously

 

[guek]

What if Valve throws out next year its SteamBox - that I gather has been confirmed to launch in 2013 - at a competitive price with HL3 as an exclusive game and all of its huge Steam catalogue?
That could change possibly scenarios in an unpredictable way.

I mean, aside from a few rumours we know nothing official about new upcoming consoles - prices, features, launch line-up -, so any long term predictions without any element to base them on, other than recent market's trends, atm are a shot in the dark imo.

I have a hard time imagining a steambox being incredibly successful outside of a niche hardcore market. It'd be extremely profitable and worthwhile for everyone involved but I can't see it having mass market penetration.

 

[SmokyDave]

It is pretty much physically impossible for the 720 to outsell the Wii U.

....huh?

 

[Stumpokapow]

No, I definitely meant plural.

One can be impressed by spectacular failure.

You sly dog!

 

[Lord_Byron28]

....huh?

Pretty sure he is referring to japan. Since this is a japanese sales thread, it was typical in the past that any discussion or context about sales outside of japan was unwarranted/off topic in this thread.

 

[SmokyDave]

Pretty sure he is referring to japan. Since this is a japanese sales thread, it was typical in the past that any discussion or context about sales outside of japan was unwarranted/off topic in this thread.

I originally assumed that but I was thrown off by his line about who would be knocked out of the game entirely. That's not a strictly Japan thing.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Nintendo handhelds continue to impress.

Fixed.

 

[metalslimer]

Pretty sure he is referring to japan. Since this is a japanese sales thread, it was typical in the past that any discussion or context about sales outside of japan was unwarranted/off topic in this thread.

It would be nice to have some clarification on this as I definitely understand that some people want to keep specific sales talk to specific threads, but I do like talking about worldwide implications when two of the major 1st party players are japanese.

 

[Aostia]

Looking at the launch reception to the Wii U in Pal territories I wouldn't bet on that being a close one unless Sony fucks it up (extremely possible considering its Sony). I think PAL will be an easy Sony victory next generation and the US is where things will be decided.

It could be, but I think that it's way too early to judge Wii U in PAL territories. It did not debut really strong in UK, while it debuted better in France (better in general and specific terms), for example. And we are missing all other datas.
And no, I don't think that the SW charts we have are enough.
Please, note that I'm not saying that is doing good.

 

[Sadist]

Makes me wonder what the Japanese industry will do next year for 3DS.

Q1 is a bit empty even with Dragon Quest VII coming out and ramping up the sales, but with MH4 releasing in the summer I wonder what other big titles will keep the momentum going in Japan. SMT IV?

 

[guek]

I know some people thing talking about vita performance is like beating a dead horse for pleasure but I don't think some of us are ever going to get over how poorly its done in the face of modest expectations.

In a lot of ways, the vita feels like a bigger fall from grace than the PS3. PS3 crashed and rose again from its ashes. At this point, vita's ashes seem to be scattered in the wind.

I'm going to feel really silly though if it starts selling a 100k a week somehow in 2013

 

[Kerub]

Vita is over 10 000 units! Vita saved?

 

[Count Dookkake]

Fixed.

No, read on.

 

[evangd007]

Scared Nintendo is trying is my point, they still have kinks to work out, but if they continue on this path, get Miiverse onto the 3DS quickly and advertise strongly it will become increasingly harder for Vita to come away even modestly looking good.

I submit that Vita has made Sony already look bad. Sometimes you have to know when to cut your losses. Repackage the Vita as a controller for PS4.

I like how you bring up "Scared Nintendo". When the 3DS had a mediocre start Nintendo went into full crisis mode. On the other hand, the Vita's viability as a product had been eroding since before launch and Sony has responded with nothing but sheer complacency. With every PR statement that the Vita was performing according to expectations followed by another cut to their sales forecast, I expected some sort of reaction. It never came.

This ties back into your thesis that the Vita has made Sony look bad. In addition, I don't think the lack of Sony in the handheld market would bring Nintendo into complacency due to competition with the mobile market.

I don't think any of NeoGAF is expecting the Wii U to die at the hands of Sony/Microsoft. Hoping, maybe, but I'm sure nobody has been deluded enough yet to actually expect this to happen.

Michael Pachter is on GAF.

 

[metalslimer]

Makes me wonder what the Japanese industry will do next year for 3DS.

Q1 is a bit empty even with Dragon Quest VII coming out and ramping up the sales, but with MH4 releasing in the summer I wonder what other big titles will keep the momentum going in Japan. SMT IV?

This is what kind of confuses me. It really seems like the western performance of the 3DS is dampering what could be an even more healthy software situation in Japan. Despite 3DS's dominance and ability to acquire games like Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter something seems off about the support its getting like 3rd parties are hesistant to put medium sized games on it.

 

[BY2K]

No, I definitely meant plural.

One can be impressed by spectacular failure.

Well played, sir. Well played.

 

[Magicpaint]

Makes me wonder what the Japanese industry will do next year for 3DS.

Q1 is a bit empty even with Dragon Quest VII coming out and ramping up the sales, but with MH4 releasing in the summer I wonder what other big titles will keep the momentum going in Japan. SMT IV?

Well those and SRW; it is not THAT empty!

 

[elostyle]

Someone explain to me why Nintendo stock is down 20% since launch of the Wiiu. Considering that it was already not worth a heck of a lot, it seems silly considering the overall pretty solid numbers that we've been seeing since.

 

[DR2K]

You mean handheld.

What about the Wii handheld?

 

[Nightstick11]

I originally assumed that but I was thrown off by his line about who would be knocked out of the game entirely. That's not a strictly Japan thing.

Sorry, thought I'd clarify. Yes, I meant Japan in terms of knocking off one of the other two, but I mentioned worldwide because it is pretty much physically impossible for a company to "win" worldwide without at least selling a decent amount in japan. It hasn't ever happened before.

 

[metalslimer]

Someone explain to me why Nintendo stock is down 20% since launch of the Wiiu. Considering that it was already not worth a heck of a lot, it seems silly considering the overall pretty solid numbers that we've been seeing since.

Europe? But honestly we are going to have to wait until January to get a clear indication of Wii U's Japanese future. Same in the US.

 

[elostyle]

Europe? But honestly we are going to have to wait until January to get a clear indication of Wii U's Japanese future. Same in the US.

I guess now would be the time to bet if I was a betting man. Hm.

 

[electroplankton]

Well those and SRW; it is not THAT empty!

I think Q1 might also have Band Brothers (the last one on DS sold over 400k) and Friend Collection (on DS it's at over 3.5mln).

 

[tuffy]

On paper, the Vita doesn't seem like a bad idea at all. It's a more powerful followup to a modestly-successful handheld released in a market that really likes its handheld gaming systems. Why shouldn't it do okay, at the very least?

But Sony just couldn't get the PSP audience to transition over to it for various reasons. And that's the danger of trying to extrapolate the previous generation's performance into the next one. I mean, one can believe that Microsoft and Sony's next consoles will be better versions of their current ones and everyone will migrate over to them for lots of sales, but the gaming business is a funny place and it doesn't always work out that way. So it's best not to try to predict too far in advance when data is in such short supply.

 

[Sadist]

This is what kind of confuses me. It really seems like the western performance of the 3DS is dampering what could be an even more healthy software situation in Japan. Despite 3DS's dominance and ability to acquire games like Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter something seems off about the support its getting like 3rd parties are hesistant to put medium sized games on it.

Well, sort off.

I'm still surprised we haven't seen a new Final Fantasy RPG for the system for instance. (Well yeah, S-E seems to be loving those GREE things I guess) Can't remember a big Namco-Bandai release for next year. Sega's handheld output seems dead beyond the 3DS version of All Star Racing Transformed.

Capcom seems to be fully committed. MH 4, Ace Attorney 5...

 

[Mpl90]

Q1 on 3DS is right now composed of DQVII, Dragon Ball, Magi no, SRT UX and probably Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon. Probably we'll see more release dates in Spring, between already known games ( Layton 6, SMTIV, AA5 just to name some of them) and other that will be announced surely. It seems the time between the announcement and the release in Japan has shortened even more. Think about games like SRT, One Piece PW2 and DW8.

 

[Magicpaint]

I think Q1 might also have Band Brothers (the last one on DS sold over 400k) and Friend Collection (on DS it's at over 3.5mln).

But I do wonder if they will delay Friend Collection a bit to keep the Animal Crossing momentum going.

 

[Thraktor]

I threw together a few charts to compare Wii U's first two weeks performance to other consoles, for those of you interested:

Of course it's far too early to make any definitive conclusions, and all the consoles had different launch circumstances (holidays/not holidays, shortages/no shortages, etc.), but the console seems to be doing around average on all measures.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

This is what kind of confuses me. It really seems like the western performance of the 3DS is dampering what could be an even more healthy software situation in Japan. Despite 3DS's dominance and ability to acquire games like Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter something seems off about the support its getting like 3rd parties are hesistant to put medium sized games on it.

Yeah I've noticed this. I mean Q1 isnt that empty because of MH4s delay but I'm sure nintendo and 3rd parties were scheduling around Capcom dropping MH4. I think one of the worrying things is when Square Enix mentioned their plans for future releases and their three pillars were HD gaming, MMO and iOS. 3DS was not mentioned in their plans at all. I think thats worrisome for Nintendo and probably square enix as well since they are ignoring the dominant platform in Japan.

 

[SmokyDave]

Sorry, thought I'd clarify. Yes, I meant Japan in terms of knocking off one of the other two, but I mentioned worldwide because it is pretty much physically impossible for a company to "win" worldwide without at least selling a decent amount in japan. It hasn't ever happened before.

Ah, I see where you're coming from, that makes more sense.