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[Cygnus X-1]

For every PSP example, there is also a Gamecube or Dreamcast example where the sale never recovered and that one magic game never showed up.

Bah. If you ask me, the Gamecube's destiny was sealed way before its sales started to get really bad. I will not repeat the entire story, but the design, the online, the lack of difference with other systems, the unreachable success of PS2, the lack of believable third party support, the games being essentially sequels and in some cases uninspired (like Sunshine: God what a disappointment)..... You know, there were many thing who went wrong with Gamecube. Many of them were really the result of bad PR decisions. The transition Yamauchi -> Iwata also was quite a mess and sure played a role.

Dreamcast was a fantastic system with amazing games, but it was probably a bit ahead of its times and....it encountered at a certain point a juggernaut named PS2. We have to admit that ANY competition against a certain PS2 was much more like a mission impossible at that time.

PSP was different. Its launch was pretty good. It's initial sales in the States and Japan (in EU as well?) better than bulky DS. It is true that eventually it was more like the DS that helped itself to explode that anything else: games like Nintendogs, Brain Training and others later really withdraw a crazy amount of casual players to the handheld and PSP was a bit overshadowed by that. But if you look at PSP's sales in Japan, they almost never got that bad, though software was not selling very healthy till Monster Hunter. Said otherwise: PSP's bad performance was in Japan especially bad because a certain DS kept selling 150k per week for an entire year. But PSP was still selling between 30k and 40k anyway. Was it bad? Or was it bad just because of comparison? I think it's more the latter you know.

Third parties weren't willing to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt back when 3DS was selling poorly (but still better than Vita is now); why would they be more lenient towards Vita?

And why do you think that the third parties opinions toward Vita of today will remain the same forever? Let's suppose Sony or a third party can bring a nice system seller by, let's say, september-december 2012. What will then happen in 2013? Third parties were developing games for Wii, but after Monster Hunter's success, they shifted the resources to PSP.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

.

 

[Castor Krieg]

Third parties weren't willing to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt back when 3DS was selling poorly (but still better than Vita is now); why would they be more lenient towards Vita?

Please remember, games are not made in a week. A large number of Vita games is already far in development, it's likely they will be released - esp. with handheld games in Japan time announcement--->release is often very short, 3-4 months. If any game was cancelled and moved to 3DS it was probably in pre-production. Time for evaluation will come after that number of titles is finished and released, then developers will look at the numbers. Let's hope by that time Vita (with Sony's help) will recover.

Really now, it's not like you are locking your platform choice for 5 years. Games on 3DS will be made, if Sony manages to revitalize Vita (lol) developers will simply make their new games on Vita as well. It's not rocket science.

 

[Lord Ghirahim]

I don't think DQX will be all that huge. Especially given it'll likely launch on Wii first.

It will be huge even if the Wii version precedes it by 6 months.

 

[Erethian]

PSP was different. Its launch was pretty good. It's initial sales in the States and Japan (in EU as well?) better than bulky DS. It is true that eventually it was more like the DS that helped itself to explode that anything else: games like Nintendogs, Brain Training and others later really withdraw a crazy amount of casual players to the handheld and PSP was a bit overshadowed by that. But if you look at PSP's sales in Japan, they almost never got that bad, though software was not selling very healthy till Monster Hunter. Said otherwise: PSP's bad performance was in Japan especially bad because a certain DS kept selling 150k per week for an entire year. But PSP was still selling between 30k and 40k anyway. Was it bad? Or was it bad just because of comparison? I think it's more the latter you know.

So how does this relate to the Vita?

Because unlike the PSP it didn't launch at the same time as its main competitor, and it's also doing much worse week to week. Both things that would make it less likely for a late-generation revival.

Also one system doesn't make a trend. The reality for most poor-selling systems is that they never recover. Personally I think if Sony wants to make Vita viable for the long term they have to be as proactive as Nintendo was with the 3DS. Make drastic, and potentially painful, moves early to try and ensure the long-term success of the system. Which is something that Sony never did with the PSP, so I'm not holding my breath.

 

[electroplankton]

Please remember, games are not made in a week. A large number of Vita games is already far in development, it's likely they will be released - esp. with handheld games in Japan time announcement--->release is often very short, 3-4 months. If any game was cancelled and moved to 3DS it was probably in pre-production. Time for evaluation will come after that number of titles is finished and released, then developers will look at the numbers. Let's hope by that time Vita (with Sony's help) will recover.

Really now, it's not like you are locking your platform choice for 5 years. Games on 3DS will be made, if Sony manages to revitalize Vita (lol) developers will simply make their new games on Vita as well. It's not rocket science.

So why don't software house want to announce them?

 

[test_account]

Third parties weren't willing to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt back when 3DS was selling poorly (but still better than Vita is now); why would they be more lenient towards Vita?

Do we know this though? I mean, all the games that have been released for the 3DS so far started developement when, or before, the 3DS was selling poorly.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't think DQX will be all that huge. Especially given it'll likely launch on Wii first.

It won't be all that big because it's an MMORPG.

If DQX was a regular DQ, it'd sell about twice what FFXIII did. As is, it'll have to settle for twice what FFXI did. :/

 

[Takao]

So why don't software house want to announce them?

because that would ruin the master keikaku

 

[muu]

It won't be all that big because it's an MMORPG.

If DQX was a regular DQ, it'd sell about twice what FFXIII did. As is, it'll have to settle for twice what FFXI did. :/

Barrier of entry for FF11 was far larger, what with the HDDs that had to be special-ordered and all. Yes there's a stigma attached w/ the MMO concept still, but an easy-to-access MMO would seem to have far better chances than what FF11 went through.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

That "Unannounced game for Vita that will become a gigantic success despite probable sales skepticism beforehand" is the main point for Vita optimism most of the time is odd.

 

[schuelma]

That "Unannounced game for Vita that will become a gigantic success despite probable sales skepticism beforehand" is the main point for Vita optimism most of the time is odd.

The thing is it is just logically pretty unlikely. Sony's first party studios have shown absolutely no evidence they are about to discover the holy grail of system sellers in Japan and 3rd parties have little incentive to make Vita exclusive titles right now.

 

[AceBandage]

That "Unannounced game for Vita that will become a gigantic success despite probable sales skepticism beforehand" is the main point for Vita optimism most of the time is odd.

 

[Mpl90]

I hope we'll get some estimates for first days from get6-2 this week. Or at least the reports without estimates

 

[Takao]

I believe in white space Uncle Parappa.

 

[Kazerei]

Do we know this though? I mean, all the games that have been released for the 3DS so far started developement when, or before, the 3DS was selling poorly.

I think a few games got delayed because of the 3DS was selling poorly. They wanted to wait until the install base got bigger. Not sure if any games got cancelled though. Besides MML3 of course, but that was just Crapcom being Crapcom.

 

[Father_Brain]

Do we know this though? I mean, all the games that have been released for the 3DS so far started developement when, or before, the 3DS was selling poorly.

I'm referring mainly to his explanation of the 3DS price cut last July:

Another reason is, we thought that eliminating the concerns of future hardware expansion early on would make a great difference to how retailers and software publishers will allocate their energies. The retailers worldwide decide the allocations of store shelves and which products to focus on for the year-end sales season by looking at the results of the summer sales. Software publishers are currently reviewing which development teams will work on which projects, and the results of which shall be launched next year and beyond. Removing their concerns on the sales of Nintendo 3DS hardware will be very critical for us to be able to enrich the applicable software in the years to come. In fact, immediately after our announcement yesterday, Nintendo employees started to receive feedback from retailers and software publishers around the world, and this feedback is, in general, rather positive.

Third parties (and retailers) evidently aren't patient, even for a system that's the successor to the most successful handheld of all time and has two guaranteed system-sellers (SM3DL, MK7) announced for year-end. The longer Vita sells poorly, the less and less likely a turnaround fueled by renewed third-party support becomes.

 

[AceBandage]

I believe in white space Uncle Parappa.

Blame imgur.

 

[Takao]

Blame imgur.

This is why you upload selective screenshots.

 

[Castor Krieg]

So why don't software house want to announce them?

My guess is they will be announcing them as time passes. I just wrote that for handheld games it takes 3-4 months till the game ships, but naturally the development takes longer. It's really unreasonable to have something 6-9 months in development, and then cancel. You also cannot switch just everything to 3DS. So it is not unreasonable to assume there is still large number of games in production, which will be announced shortly (1-3 months?).

Also, we both know software announcement is a matter of timing that has nothing to do with time it takes to develop the game.

 

[test_account]

I think a few games got delayed because of the 3DS was selling poorly. They wanted to wait until the install base got bigger. Not sure if any games got cancelled though. Besides MML3 of course, but that was just Crapcom being Crapcom.

Yep, i think Love Plus and Metal Gear were delayed? But i have no idea if the reason for this was because on the 3DS selling poorly.

I'm referring mainly to his explanation of the 3DS price cut last July:

Third parties (and retailers) evidently aren't patient, even for a system that's the successor to the most successful handheld of all time and has two guaranteed system-sellers (SM3DL, MK7) announced for year-end. The longer Vita sells poorly, the less and less likely a turnaround fueled by renewed third-party support becomes.

I understand. It is true that if a system underpreform for a long time, then the 3rd party support might be smaller indeed. But i dont think that the Vita is at that point yet, and i dont think that 3DS ever reached that point either. Nintendo seemed to act in advance trying to avoid this senario. Only time will tell what Sony will do in comparison.

 

[mclem]

Also, we both know software announcement is a matter of timing that has nothing to do with time it takes to develop the game.

Sony needs the announcements *now*, no matter how far the game is from release.

 

[Castor Krieg]

Sony needs the announcements *now*, no matter how far the game is from release.

I agree, which is why I believe they will take some of their E3 announcements and make them at GDC.

 

[frankie_baby]

I agree, which is why I believe they will take some of their E3 announcements and make them at GDC.

I thought the announcements were going to be at TGS?

 

[electroplankton]

Yep, i think Love Plus and Metal Gear were delayed? But i have no idea if the reason for this was because on the 3DS selling poorly.

As for New Love Plus, the delay came when 3DS was exploding thanks to Super Mario 3D Land; I think Konami realized that launching a game along with Monster Hunter, Mario Kart and Inazuma Eleven was not the right choice, so it chose a more quiet period, exploiting the Valentine's Day thing.

 

[Takao]

I thought the announcements were going to be at TGS?

the announcements will be in game wave

 

[M-PG71C]

+

1) Resident Evil is showing some very good legs. I hope it continues to sell.
2) Rhythm Thief is hanging in there too
3) Gravity Rush is also doing well, better than I anticipated.
3) Go Suikoden!

-

1) Damn Vita sales are slow, very very slow. It'll be 10k before too long. Shame Gravity Rush didn't help it.

2) Soul Caliber V = Bomba

3) Wii sales are flat-lining as well, no surprise though.

 

[Castor Krieg]

I thought the announcements were going to be at TGS?

I don't think Sony can stay silent that long if Vita will be selling ~10K/week. Let's see how it will do in Europe and US, maybe this will take some pressure off Japan.

 

[test_account]

As for New Love Plus, the delay came when 3DS was exploding thanks to Super Mario 3D Land; I think Konami realized that launching a game along with Monster Hunter, Mario Kart and Inazuma Eleven was not the right choice, so it chose a more quiet period, exploiting the Valentine's Day thing.

I see, that sounds reasonable. I think Konami did a right choice by delaying Love Plus 3DS.

 

[electroplankton]

I don't think Sony can stay silent that long if Vita will be selling ~10K/week. Let's see how it will do in Europe and US, maybe this will take some pressure off Japan.

How can Sony talk if there are no games to announce or make third parties to announce?

 

[AceBandage]

I see, that sounds reasonable. I think Konami did a right choice by delaying Love Plus 3DS.

Easily.
Especially launching it on Valentine's.

 

[gkryhewy]

I don't think Sony can stay silent that long if Vita will be selling ~10K/week. Let's see how it will do in Europe and US, maybe this will take some pressure off Japan.

Seems likely.

 

[Castor Krieg]

How can Sony talk if there are no games to announce or make third parties to announce?

Why do you assume that's the case?

 

[Takao]

I don't think Sony can stay silent that long if Vita will be selling ~10K/week. Let's see how it will do in Europe and US, maybe this will take some pressure off Japan.

He meant TGS 2011.

You know that time where Sony demoed a Vita and it crashed.

 

[Busaiku]

Wasn't it also hacked there?

 

[saichi]

It's true that any system might get a surprise breakout hit, but it's also true that in theory the Cubs could win the World Series. There are things that make these sorts of events more or less likely to happen.

Cubs are different. They are cursed.

Dreamcast was a fantastic system with amazing games, but it was probably a bit ahead of its times and....it encountered at a certain point a juggernaut named PS2. We have to admit that ANY competition against a certain PS2 was much more like a mission impossible at that time.

VITA is a fantastic system with amazing games, but it was probably a bit ahead of its times and....it encountered at a certain juggernaut named 3DS. We have to admit that ANY competition against 3DS was much more like a mission impossible right now. This is almost the same situation except I think Dreamcast actually had a better start in Japan.

Besides, MHP became the largest 3rd party franchise on PSP (bigger than even Dragon Quest) which "saved" the PSP in Japan. There is a better chance for Knicks to win NBA championship than another game on VITA to become bigger than DQ in Japan. And if that magic game does not reach the popularity of MH or DQ and is only as popular as recent FF games, that's not gonna do much to revive VITA in Japan.

 

[Castor Krieg]

VITA is a fantastic system with amazing games, but it was probably a bit ahead of its times and....it encountered at a certain juggernaut named 3DS. We have to admit that ANY competition against 3DS was much more like a mission impossible right now. This is almost the same situation except I think Dreamcast actually had a better start in Japan.

Besides, MHP became the largest 3rd party franchise on PSP (bigger than even Dragon Quest) which "saved" the PSP in Japan. There is a better chance for Knicks to win NBA championship than another game on VITA to become bigger than DQ in Japan. And if that magic game does not reach the popularity of MH or DQ and is only as popular as recent FF games, that's not gonna do much to revive VITA in Japan.

I wonder, is this the first time a system was facing "X is DOA" even before it was released in all territories?

 

[Takao]

Wasn't it also hacked there?

Vita hasn't been hacked.

I wonder, is this the first time a system was facing "X is DOA" even before it was released in all territories?

No.

 

[Chris1964]

New releases {2012.02.23}

[3DS] Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin <SLG> (Marvelous AQL) (¥5.040)
[3DS] Nightmare Puzzle: Crush 3D <PZL> (Sega) (¥4.179)

[PSV] Ninja Gaiden &#931; Plus <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.090)
[PSV] Reality Fighters <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥3.980)
[PSV] Little Busters! Converted Edition <ADV> (Prototype) (¥6.090)

[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave [Limited Edition Premium Box] <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥9.980)
[PSP] I Don't Have Many Friends Portable # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.800)
[PSP] I Don't Have Many Friends Portable [Chou Zannen Box] <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥10.980)
[PSP] Nendoroid Generation # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Nendoroid Generation [Nen-Gen-Ten-Komori Box] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥10.480)
[PSP] Sharin no Kuni, Himawari no Shoujo # <ADV> (5pb.) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Sharin no Kuni, Himawari no Shoujo [Limited Edition] <ADV> (5pb.) (¥7.140)
[PSP] Moujuutsukai to Oujisama: Snow Bride Portable # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥5.040)
[PSP] Moujuutsukai to Oujisama: Snow Bride Portable [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥7.140)
[PSP] Moujuutsukai to Oujisama: Snow Bride Portable - Twin Pack <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥9.240)
[PSP] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 5: Kazahanaki # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) (¥5.040)
[PSP] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 5: Kazahanaki [Treasure Box] <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) (¥10.290)
[PSP] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 5: Kazahanaki - Twin Pack <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) (¥10.290)
[PSP] Phase-D: Shirokage no Shou # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥3.969)
[PSP] Phase-D: Shirokage no Shou [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Asgard) (¥6.090)
[PSP] 12-Ji no Kane to Cinderella: Halloween Wedding # <ADV> (QuinRose) (¥6.300)
[PSP] 12-Ji no Kane to Cinderella: Halloween Wedding [Deluxe Edition] <ADV> (QuinRose) (¥8.925)
[PSP] Ore wa Shoujo Mangaka <ACT> (Giza10) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Maru Goukaku: Shikaku Dasshu! Takken Shiken Portable <EDU> (MediaFive) (¥3.800)
[PSP] DJ Max Portable 3 (Best Hit Selection) <ACT> (CyberFront) (¥2.940)
[PSP] Half-Minute Hero Second (Best Collection) <RPG> (Marvelous AQL) (¥2.940)

[PS3] The Idolmaster: Gravure For You! Vol.5 <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥9.980)
[PS3] Asura's Wrath <ACT> (Capcom) (¥6.990)
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm Generation <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.330)
[PS3] The Darkness II <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Do Love Me Seriously! R <ADV> (Minato Station) (¥8.190)
[PS3] The House of the Dead: Overkill - Director's Cut <STG> (Sega) (¥6.279)
[PS3] Gal Gun # <STG> (Alchemist) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Gal Gun [Limited Edition] <STG> (Alchemist) (¥9.240)
[PS3] Under Defeat HD # <STG> (G.Rev) (¥5.880)
[PS3] Under Defeat HD [Limited Edition] <STG> (G.Rev) (¥8.379)
[PS3] Touch, Shot! Love Application # <ADV> (Compile Heart) (¥7.329)
[PS3] Touch, Shot! Love Application [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Compile Heart) (¥9.429)
[PS3] Fight Night Champion (EA Best Hits) <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥3.129)

[360] Asura's Wrath <ACT> (Capcom) (¥6.990)
[360] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm Generation <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.330)
[360] The Darkness II <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
[360] Under Defeat HD # <STG> (G.Rev) (¥5.880)
[360] Under Defeat HD [Limited Edition] <STG> (G.Rev) (¥8.379)
[360] Entaku no Seito: Students of Round (DRPG Selection) <RPG> (Experience) (¥3.990)

 

[test_account]

Wasn't it also hacked there?

Yes and no. The PSP exploit was first runned by a japanese guy yes, but the Vita itselt isnt hacked, at least not more than what the 3DS is. Both the Vita and 3DS allows for DS and PSP homebrew respectively to work, but this is being run in "emulator mode". The main part of Vita and 3DS isnt hacked.

 

[Busaiku]

So what's the outlook for Harvest Moon.
Is it expected to bomb or maybe live up to the DS games?

 

[DCharlie]

Only game i was going to go for was Under Defeat LTD but given i've already got the Dreamcast version i'll skip.

Ninja Gaiden - will get the US version. Time to start not spending over the odds on Japanese software a little.

 

[Chris1964]

Little Busters! Converted Edition may have been delayed but I'm bored to doublecheck now.

 

[saichi]

I wonder, is this the first time a system was facing "X is DOA" even before it was released in all territories?

since this is a MC thread, talking about the outlook in Japan only.

 

[Mpl90]

Little Busters! Converted Edition may have been delayed but I'm bored to doublecheck now.

It has been, indeed.

 

[DCharlie]

so we get to find out which version of Good People Die sold more next week?

+1 to the Vita version here - though i downloaded so it doesn't count. I'm pretty much moving over to US for DD games so just cleaning out the wallet.

(I have the English version of 999 so am planning on getting the US version for 3DS to keep things "in line")

 

[Zenaku]

Love Plus's delay is now speculated to be bug related among japanese blogs. Like I mentioned earlier in the thread, numerous bugs have been found in the game (scenery vanishing/skinship having no affect when holding the system side-ways, the sleep command not appearing at the end of the day, random freezes, data transfer from the DS games corrupting the number or days/presents or where you've dated, etc).

Likely for that reason, Love Plus has 4 stars on Amazon, and 4.5 stars on the Nintendo eShop. I hope most bugs are just due to data transfer, as my copy will finally arrive tomorrow.

So what's the outlook for Harvest Moon.
Is it expected to bomb or maybe live up to the DS games?

The pre-orders are looking good, according to a gaming blog. The games been decent on Amazon (currently 15th in games) and has the highest interest among Famitsu users for games coming out next week (well, Asura's Wrath beats it if you add up interest for the PS360 versions). It should do well, though not as well as RF4 will do.

Good People Die has 5 ratings on the eShop so far, all 5's.

 

[Busaiku]

It should do well, though not as well as RF4 will do.

Rune Factory's traditionally done worse than Harvest Moon.

 

[Piercedveil]

So do people think that the Vita will sell even worse in the US and Europe or what? I can't imagine it could be worse..

 

[AceBandage]

So do people think that the Vita will sell even worse in the US and Europe or what? I can't imagine it could be worse..

Handhelds are far less popular in the West than they are in Japan...
So logic dictates that it certainly won't do much better.