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[mclem]

Vita is really trending down dangerously. With nothing noteworthy at all in the horizon, and probably the only worthwhile title coming out anytime remotely soon being Persona 4 Golden... it's not going to be good for Sony at all.

By my reckoning, if there's no change to their relative selling amounts, the PSVita LTD will overtake the 360's LTD in about 77 weeks. Now, I expect some fluctuations there - I'm sure PSVita will be boosted more by holidays than the 360s, but I also expect Vita to drop lower than the current position at times.

My random musings: Can Vita overtake the 360 before the 720 comes out?

(Not a stat that particularly *means* anything, I hasten to add! Just something that struck me as possibly quite close)

 

[Mpl90]

Third week comparisons

03./01. [3DS] Resident Evil: Revelations <ADV> (Capcom) {2012.01.26} (¥5.990) - 26.106 / 216.241 (-40%)

06. [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) 29,000 / 410,000

10. / 03. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (Capcom) - 23.537 / 214.691 (-51%)

Considering how RE5, it's safe to say Revelations could have "legs", at least compared to other RE releases.

 

[BassForever]

The 3DS never went this low but even if it did it always had the promise of Monster Hunter, Mario Kart, and Super Mario 3D Land on the horizon. What does the Vita have?

Transfarring

 

[pharmboy044]

Looks like Graviity Rush sold through it's supposed initial 30k first shipment.

This is a good sign.

 

[liger05]

PSV 13K. Damn that is so low.

 

[duckroll]

I've been arguing for quite some time that the Vita's biggest problem is a lack of quality games. Weeks like this are starting to convince me that price might be the bigger issue after all.

I think the lack of appealing games hurts it more. The entire line-up for the Vita at the moment doesn't really seem low quality, and the impressives indicate that the games are far from bad, and offer both good production values as well as good quality design. The problem is that the entire package doesn't really appeal to the market at large. You can have tons quality games, but if they're not appealing, you still won't sell.

 

[Castor Krieg]

The 3DS never went this low but even if it did it always had the promise of Monster Hunter, Mario Kart, and Super Mario 3D Land on the horizon. What does the Vita have?

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

I think the lack of appealing games hurts it more. The entire line-up for the Vita at the moment doesn't really seem low quality, and the impressives indicate that the games are far from bad, and offer both good production values as well as good quality design. The problem is that the entire package doesn't really appeal to the market at large. You can have tons quality games, but if they're not appealing, you still won't sell.

But casuals won't buy at this price. So what else is left than having launch games targeting the hardcore?

 

[schuelma]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

You are not talking about real games though!

 

[duckroll]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

Lol what?

 

[jman2050]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

You mean franchise, ie, singular, correct? Which also happens to be the same franchise that currently doesn't actually have a game announced for the Vita?

 

[mclem]

The 3DS three-headed monster will never die, will it.

As mentioned in last week's thread: I'd argue that it has a fourth head, at least for the moment.

Out of interest, I wonder if there's already a plan laid out for a Best Price reissue of MHTriG down the line (possibly to build hype for MH4?). I ask because that's something Nintendo have historically been cagey about, but it's also a factor in MH's strong long-term sales.

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

I think the lack of appealing games hurts it more. The entire line-up for the Vita at the moment doesn't really seem low quality, and the impressives indicate that the games are far from bad, and offer both good production values as well as good quality design. The problem is that the entire package doesn't really appeal to the market at large. You can have tons quality games, but if they're not appealing, you still won't sell.

This has been my position since the beginning, I'm just starting to waver on it a bit. Gravity Daze isn't a big name obviously but I would have expected at least a slight bump from it. For now I still agree with you that software is the bigger issue, I can just feel the margin between the two issues shrinking in my mind.

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

So a PSP game (am I missing something?) and an unannounced game that will probably also be available on the much more popular 3DS if it ever exists?

 

[Alrus]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

I didn't know these games were announced.

 

[Cipherr]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?

 

[frankie_baby]

Monster Hunter, Type-0, and probably same franchises that made PSP a success in Japan?



But casuals won't buy at this price. So what else is left than having launch games targeting the hardcore?

WHAT???????

 

[duckroll]

This has been my position since the beginning, I'm just starting to waver on it a bit. Gravity Daze isn't a big name obviously but I would have expected at least a slight bump from it. For now I still agree with you that software is the bigger issue, I can just feel the margin between the two issues shrinking in my mind.

I think software is always the number one reason. A price drop can definitely cause a short term increase in weekly sales for a piece of hardware, but it's not a solution on its own without the software to support it. The problem with software is that you also need to deliver what people want, the problem is that when a third party is asking what the majority of people want for a portable game, they will almost naturally also associate it with the 3DS userbase now, because that is the biggest and main market.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Third week comparisons

03./01. [3DS] Resident Evil: Revelations <ADV> (Capcom) {2012.01.26} (¥5.990) - 26.106 / 216.241 (-40%)

06. [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) 29,000 / 410,000

10. / 03. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (Capcom) - 23.537 / 214.691 (-51%)

Considering how RE5, it's safe to say Revelations could have "legs", at least compared to other RE releases.

Revelations is already displaying decent legs, it's percentage drops week 2/3 are notably lower than RE5 was. 250k seems certain but now I think 300k is possible, which is s pretty good result compared to the mainline (~520k on PS3).

 

[mclem]

Sony need to break out the money hats and get some kind MH on the platform by the summer. They also need to get a redesign out before the end of the year and remove the bulk and turn it onto a slider format so it is more pocket friendly.

Nah, just release frankenslider.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

This has been my position since the beginning, I'm just starting to waver on it a bit. Gravity Daze isn't a big name obviously but I would have expected at least a slight bump from it. For now I still agree with you that software is the bigger issue, I can just feel the margin between the two issues shrinking in my mind.

It's definitely a bit of both, basically you have 2 other handheld systems with are cheaper to buy and either have a) a better selection of games to choose from (PSP) or b) have a much stronger lineup for the future (3DS) - there's pretty much nothing the Vita has an advantage with, sure it's the best hardware but there's not a lot to show for that, and it means paying more - which apparently very few people are interested in doing

 

[Castor Krieg]

So a PSP game (am I missing something?) and an unannounced game that will probably also be available on the much more popular 3DS if it ever exists?

I didn't know these games were announced.

Lol what?

You mean franchise, ie, singular, correct? Which also happens to be the same franchise that currently doesn't actually have a game announced for the Vita?

WHAT???????

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Funny how all four of the games released on 2/02 had similar drops.

 

[Mrbob]

Ouch at Japan Vita hardware sales. Needs more software ASAP. Originally I didn't think it would be possible for NA Vita sales to surpass Japan Vita sales, but I believe this will happen in a month or two. Of course the Western launch is packed with a bunch of software which helps move hardware. The failing of SCEJ to build up like SCEA and SCEE have done is rearing its ugly head.

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

I think software is always the number one reason. A price drop can definitely cause a short term increase in weekly sales for a piece of hardware, but it's not a solution on its own without the software to support it. The problem with software is that you also need to deliver what people want, the problem is that when a third party is asking what the majority of people want for a portable game, they will almost naturally also associate it with the 3DS userbase now, because that is the biggest and main market.

Well I certainly agree that software is always an issue regardless of price, no argument at all there. I'm just starting to wonder if price was a bigger issue than I originally gave it credit for.

Purely regarding software I think the future of the Vita is looking quite grim based on what you've said here. Sony needs compelling software from 3rd party developers for the Vita to sell and right now I'm just not seeing it. Hopefully they have some key announcements soon.

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

When the PSP got MH it wasn't available on any other handhelds at the time. That is no longer the case here. Who's to say most MH fans won't be satisfied with the 3DS (or heck, even the PSP?)?

 

[GCX]

Out of interest, I wonder if there's already a plan laid out for a Best Price reissue of MHTriG down the line (possibly to build hype for MH4?). I ask because that's something Nintendo have historically been cagey about, but it's also a factor in MH's long-term strong sales.

Why would Nintendo have any saying in what versions of MH3G Capcom releases for 3DS? They released many Best Price reissues on the DS (like the Ace Attorney games).

 

[duckroll]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

I think you're delusional and if that's the stand you're going to take you should leave these threads before you make a bigger fool of yourself.

 

[frankie_baby]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

no i dont know its coming and as every week passes its getting more and more illogical there ever will be a possibility of it happening

 

[mclem]

PSV 13K. Damn that is so low.

That's okay, it's not counting the 30k sold over PSN. Believe!

 

[Alrus]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

That's a bit delusional... MH3G is a big success and is paving the way for MH4, why would they confuse the fanbase to put a game on a console that isn't selling?

 

[BlazingDarkness]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

We also know MH4 is coming to the 3DS! The best Vita can hope for is it to go multiplatform. A spin off probably won't help things - and either way, Sony has lost it's trump card now

 

[tzare]

maybe sony should release a umd adaptor in japan for vita. Just like CCP and 3DS.
it would also be nice if sony gave us some info regarding psn sales. I wonder what % of sales could that mean.

 

[Father_Brain]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

Even if MH Vita were real, it wouldn't do for Vita nearly as much as it did for PSP. Don't get me wrong - it'd boost hardware sales substantially (assuming that it were to be a proper MH title with significant Vita-exclusive content, not a spinoff or straight port), but the franchise is already on another next-gen handheld with a much cheaper entry cost and a much larger established userbase, which would significantly lessen its impact on Vita sales.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Principate]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

Probably not, not with that entry barrier, Vita needs a price drop and memory cards packed into to all versions before we'll see a sigificant bump in hardware caused by a game like MH.

 

[Sardello]

Soul Calibur V ... can we call it a "Flop" after these figures?

 

[stilgar]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

The release of a MH on 3DS put this scenario at risk.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think there wouldn't be much difference really, sub 100k for sure

I agree sub-100k, but there's a lot of room between 43k and 100k. The game seemingly didn't bring in new buyers to Vita, which means it may have done better with PS3's substantially larger userbase to sell to. Then again, Vita's captive audience may have been what pushed the game this far in the first place (rather than the game itself driving things) and on the more competitive PS3 it might have done worse.

 

[BishopLamont]

Its funny to keep seeing people talk bout Sony killing the PSP off to help the VITA's fortunes. Like Sony can just hit the kill switch on it, and even if they did, that it'd help the VITA sell any more than it is.

The only thing people should be expecting Sony to do would be asking third parties nicely to move games from the PSP to VITA a year ago, but if they didn't care bout losing MH, I'm sure they wouldn't have even bothered with any other game. Its foolish because Nintendo is going for the entree and and main course, while Sony is fine with just the left overs.

 

[frankie_baby]

i'm wondering now what will happen first, vita at 700k or 3ds at 7 million

 

[Lord Ghirahim]

You know it's coming, I know it's coming. There will be MHVita and then the console will sell shitloads. I expect TGS reveal.

How do we know that again?

 

[Castor Krieg]

Probably not, not with that entry barrier, Vita needs a price drop and memory cards packed into to all versions before we'll see a sigificant bump in hardware caused by a game like MH.

And this will happen in the next part of the year, together with some good TGS reveals.

 

[duckroll]

Well I certainly agree that software is always an issue regardless of price, no argument at all there. I'm just starting to wonder if price was a bigger issue than I originally gave it credit for.

Purely regarding software I think the future of the Vita is looking quite grim based on what you've said here. Sony needs compelling software from 3rd party developers for the Vita to sell and right now I'm just not seeing it. Hopefully they have some key announcements soon.

I don't think we can really get a very definite answer on how much of the factor is the price and how much of the factor is the software, mostly because the software side is looking so bad. With the sort of lineup they have, not just at launch, but everything that has been announced for it so far, it's really a very unappealing device. If the price were lower would more people be buying the Vita? Sure. But would it be a significant number? I doubt so, since even with a 500k+ userbase, the best selling title is only at 100k. All other titles are under 100k, and the average title seems to sell 50k or less. That basically indicates that even people who bought the hardware can't find many titles which interest them. There is no big title that the majority of Vita owners all own, and that's pretty telling imo.

 

[frankie_baby]

Its funny to keep seeing people talk bout Sony killing the PSP off to help the VITA's fortunes. Like Sony can just hit the kill switch on it, and even if they did, that it'd help the VITA sell any more than it is.

The only thing people should be expecting Sony to do would be asking third parties nicely to move games from the PSP to VITA a year ago, but if they didn't care bout losing MH, I'm sure they wouldn't have even bothered with any other game. Its foolish because Nintendo is going for the entree and and main course, while Sony is fine with just the left overs.

its quite possible that if sony killed the psp it might do more for 3ds sales than it does for vita

 

[RPGamer92]

Is it safe to say a big price drop is coming for Vita?

 

[GCX]

And this will happen in the next part of the year, together with some good TGS reveals.

Do you also know the PS4 launch games?

 

[CrunchyFrog]

Good to see gravity rush do so well. But Vita's going to get a price drop if the situation doesn't improve significantly with the N/A launch.

 

[Kyoufu]

Is it safe to say a big price drop is coming for Vita?

Not without a massive game. As duckroll already stated, a price drop alone isn't going to work without software to push it.

 

[stilgar]

Do you also know the PS4 launch games?

The Bouncer 2, Litlle Big Universe, PS Sports suite.

Other questions?

 

[Kazerei]

Soul Calibur V ... can we call it a "Flop" after these figures?

Yup. SCIV ended up around 180k. SCV might do around half that. EDIT: platforms combined

 

[Castor Krieg]

I don't think we can really get a very definite answer on how much of the factor is the price and how much of the factor is the software, mostly because the software side is looking so bad. With the sort of lineup they have, not just at launch, but everything that has been announced for it so far, it's really a very unappealing device. If the price were lower would more people be buying the Vita? Sure. But would it be a significant number? I doubt so, since even with a 500k+ userbase, the best selling title is only at 100k. All other titles are under 100k, and the average title seems to sell 50k or less. That basically indicates that even people who bought the hardware can't find many titles which interest them. There is no big title that the majority of Vita owners all own, and that's pretty telling imo.

If you look at 3DS software:hardware ration you will notice that even Mario (which defies logic) is 1.3-1.4M for almost 5M 3DS sold. So the percentage is only a little bit better (and can be explained by the fact it's Mario).

Sure, the line-up is luckluster, that's always the problem with post-launch period. It impacts Vita in a negative way as well - Nintendo could throw out 2 Mario Games within 7-8 months of system launch, I doubt Sony can do the same with Vita.

Do you also know the PS4 launch games?

It's the logical thing to do, but hey, I'm sure you are a better expert at this! Share your thoughts, please!

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

I don't think we can really get a very definite answer on how much of the factor is the price and how much of the factor is the software, mostly because the software side is looking so bad. With the sort of lineup they have, not just at launch, but everything that has been announced for it so far, it's really a very unappealing device. If the price were lower would more people be buying the Vita? Sure. But would it be a significant number? I doubt so, since even with a 500k+ userbase, the best selling title is only at 100k. All other titles are under 100k, and the average title seems to sell 50k or less. That basically indicates that even people who bought the hardware can't find many titles which interest them. There is no big title that the majority of Vita owners all own, and that's pretty telling imo.

Yeah, it's difficult to get an idea of how much each factor is playing into the equation because of how closely they relate to each other and impact one another. I think you've got the general idea right in that software is the biggest issue though, and that's something that I've always felt was the case. The reason I think pricing might be a slightly bigger factor than I originally anticipated is because of how poorly Vita hardware did even with the somewhat decent success of a game like Gravity Daze. It could just be that Gravity Daze isn't really that appealing to the audience though, that's something that I'm not too familiar with.

Is it safe to say a big price drop is coming for Vita?

Strategically speaking that probably wouldn't even make sense for Sony right now, especially when you consider duckroll's comments on the situation. Sony needs software.