Shellshock929
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if that happens.
Sure, I mean, it's clear that it's not popular, so why not?
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Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2012 (Feb 06 - Feb 12)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I wouldn't be surprised if that happens.
Well, they physically CAN'T help being late. They're handcuffed in terms of their pricing; they have much less flexibility to adjust the pricepoint of the system compared to Nintendo (bunch of factors there). The last is possible, but only up to a certain point. Games take time to come out, and droughts, even for a few months, have devastating results on a platform's fortunes, positive feedback loop and all.
Yup, 3DS might be near ~10 million by the end of the year.
MikeE21286
Member
Man, Sony needs a big Vita software announcement or a price cut, or it's gonna get uuuugly.
But will the PSP outsell the Vita for the year?Sony's best bet was grabbing God Eater 2 for Vita but alas... it's a PSP game. So PSP will outsell Vita that week too. Poor Vita.
Stay tuned.
I made this point in a thread a couple of weeks ago, that Sony's extreme reliance on third parties to buoy their platforms may be starting to bite them in the ass, as without overwhelming third part support they basically have nothing of interest to drive interest to their platform. Certainly not for lack of trying given how desperately Sony is trying to build a proper first-party stable, but I think that's too little, too late.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
PS3 was also tracking like Gamecube the first few years though. Then again had GC gotten MGS2, FFX and almost every other big 3rd party console game, it might've staged a recovery too
Shellshock929
Member
That's definitely a strong possibility there.
I'm still hesitant to call what happened to the PS3 a "recovery", at least on anything but relative terms.
Yup. Pretty simple actually. I would also add that while Sony seems to have made a lot of effort to build up its first party development in terms of the West, their Japanese 1st party development seems almost non existent at this point.
The make up of the types of games which fall into those categories are different for every platform. In the case of the PSP for example we have (A) being stuff like JRPGs, Project Diva, Gundam games. (B) is of course Monster Hunter Portable. And (C) is not just made up of FF and MGS, but also stuff like God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable.
If we look at the DS on the other hand, (A) would be smaller ports, spin-offs, and re-releases of bigger franchises, (B) would be DQ, Pokemon, Nintendo games, and (C) would be stuff like Taiko, Inazuma, Layton, non-million selling FF games, etc.
If we look at the PS3, (A) would be stuff like Dark Souls, Armored Core V, various smaller JRPGs and action games, etc. (B) would be well... right now just FFXIII. That's one area Sony hasn't fixed at all for the PS3 in Japan. (C) will be Musou games, Gundam Extreme Versus, RE, Yakuza, etc. This is probably the biggest segment driving PS3 sales in Japan now.
So I don't think it's limited to specific franchises. Franchises can be created, not all titles have to be existing IPs, etc. But the main message is that the Vita needs a healthier software line up, and that's not really in sight right now which is the concern.
If it goes <10k I think we enter true apocalypse territory then.
Massive headache for Sony, months of sticking it out or price-cut and lose a significant amount of money on each sale until costs come down.
frankie_baby
Member
and the way things are going vita will be lucky to be near 2 million (even thats assuming a decent holiday bump)
BishopLamont
Banned
It'll be over 10M by the end of this year.
test_account
XP-39C²
The_Darkest_Red
Member
And their 1st party attempts in the West have been pretty underwhelming as of late as well --- at least in terms of commercial success.
When the 3DS hits 10M, if the Vita's not at - let's say 2M - I think we can call it a bomb.
If you want a way to call it early: If it drops below the Wii for a three weeks back-to-back, I think that's a reasonable criteria, too.
I know; I'm just low-balling it a bit.
Bruno MB
Member
The problem with Japanese games like Resident Evil that are big internationally, is that no matter how well they sell in their home if they end up selling poorly in overseas markets. It is extremely venture to say that the game has failed to meet expectations in the West market, mainly because we don't know its US sales. But we can agree that going by the Pal charts its performance in Europe has been unfortunately very disappointing.
I hope Resident Evil: Revelations can grow legs (I will be eagerly waiting for its US sales), so that Capcom and other companies feel that their effort to release this kind of big profile games is worthwhile.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
Point noted. Just trying to brainstorm how Sony can get VITA excitement in a hurry, and a port of a popular FF title seems like a good starting point. I don't want VITA to bomb. Competition is good and we all saw last year what happens when Nintendo gets arrogant and complacent, immediately followed by panicked Nintendo. Personally I prefer the latter, and competition is needed to keep Ninty panicked. :-/
I think there's an irony in the fact that Sony's more serious attempts at first-party commercial success in the west are ultimately being overshadowed by current third-party megafranchises.
BishopLamont
Banned
Nintendo has the Wii U to worry about when it comes to competition. They won't be complacent again. Speaking on a worldwide basis of course.
The_Darkest_Red
Member
At this point it would probably hurt them even more.
3DS:Vita sales have been consistently 5:1 for weeks, Vita needs to step up from that a lot.
It's the nowhere to be seen second wave of software that is doing the damage as much as price, with Nintendo you could buy a system at least knowing what to expect by Christmas. Vita is a big question mark at the moment.
MK and 3D Land were at least known about and on the horizon.
hosannainexcelsis
Member
As much as I would like the Vita to succeed, barring some surprise hit I see no way it can put up even mildly credible competition against the 3DS. Its disadvantages in price, software, and mindshare are too great.
The only competition Nintendo has to worry about in the handheld sphere is smartphones.
iOS and Smartphone development will keep Nintendo busy, no need to worry about that. Though i expect Nintendo to unveil a crapload of 3DS titles at e3 this year.
It was mentioned in another thread but I believe the 3DS dipped below 20,000 twice (this was before the price cut obviously).
I don't think it ever sold as bad as the PSV is selling now.
Gravity Daze did nothing to help hardware sales which is disappointing.
Probably a bit off topic, but it is an interesting question as to how much of Nintendo's lessons learned with the 3DS can apply to their Wii U strategy. Some lessons are obvious and things Nintendo can improve upon- like having a better launch lineup. Some others (take away your competition's main 3rd party franchise and get notable 3rd party franchises in the systems first year) seem much more difficult to achieve with the Wii U.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I've never understood the comparisons along the lines of "X Competition had its slow start, too!"
Which would be fine and dandy if the second console released managed to travel back in time to when that was going on. But you have to fight the enemy in front of you, not the one from a year ago.
Which would be fine and dandy if the second console released managed to travel back in time to when that was going on. But you have to fight the enemy in front of you, not the one from a year ago.
Wow @ vita numbers. Well, I'm pretty hardcore as they get as I've purchased every handheld and system at launch since 1995 (when I started working part time). But, I'm passing on the Vita for now, I'm not even excited about it. At least the 3DS had the glasses-free 3d gimmick, but upping the visuals with no games that interest me just isn't going to do it. Hopefully they'll have some more software out in the winter and I'll pick one up then. Might even have "fire-sale" pricing by then too at this rate.
test_account
XP-39C²
Just wondering, where is the irony?
For the most accurate data possible, I tried to go back to Media Create threads to the point where the 3DS was around 500-600k units total. I had to go back all the way to its second week of sales to do it.
At that time:
03. / 03. [3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle (Level 5) {2011.02.26} - 59.138 / 178.728 (-51%)
05. / 05. [3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} - 44.699 / 108.912 (-30%)
08. / 06. [3DS] Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Koei Tecmo) {2011.02.26} - 30.112 / 79.438 (-39%)
11. / 07. [3DS] Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition (Capcom) {2011.02.26} - 16.974 / 61.624 (-62%)
12. / 08. [3DS] Ridge Racer 3D (Bandai Namco) {2011.02.26} - 15.810 / 54.036 (-59%)
13. / 15. [3DS] Winning Eleven 3DSoccer (Konami) {2011.02.26} - 15.301 / 39.857 (-38%)
3DS was sitting around 580k total hardware sales.
3DS software of just these 6 games was ~500k.
For comparison, as many recent Vita software as I can find:
14./03. [PSV] Tales of Innocence R <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.01.26} (¥5.980) - 8.397 / 63.250 (-85%)
02./00. [PSV] Gravity Rush <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.02.09} (¥5.980) - 43.462 / NEW
09./04. [PSV] Ragnarok Odyssey <ACT> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2012.02.02} (¥5.985) - 8.117 / 41.614 (-76%)
For these, I had to go back to Vita's first week because no games other than the three above have charted in the top 20 since then:
07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW
08./00. [PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 48.224 / NEW
18./00. [PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2011.12.17} (¥6.090) - 29.181 / NEW
19./00. [PSV] Lord of Apocalypse <RPG> (Square Enix) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 28.742 / NEW
Vita is currently sitting at 566k.
Vita software of any game I could find(7): ~300k.
Let's make it interesting and eliminate first parties:
3DS: 413k.
PSV: 163k
If you really want to compare sales between the 3DS and Vita, third party or first party, it's a losing battle right now. Especially since we have no idea how many digital sales there are.
BlazingDarkness
Member
Aside from GT, Sony have pretty much always relied on third parties to move their systems, through each generation this was the case - they've tried to turn it around with the PS3 but it's only had a modest success, which is why I'm absolutely baffled they've let so many franchises go multiplatform, especially MH
They just need to keep the price at $350 or less, and have a big 1st party game ready.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
A bit of apples and oranges from different sources, but after 52 weeks Famitsu had GBA at 4,926,846. Here we have 3DS above that in Media Create at 51 weeks. And Famitsu has had a slightly higher 3DS total, so matching sources shouldn't change the result that 3DS ended up with the biggest first year.
23K was its low point of the first two months.
As far as what Sony themselves have full control over, they already launched with a new Hot Shots Golf, which was their #1 and #2 PSP game.Castor Krieg said:
Only in Europe then. Its just too expensive here compared to US. How much does it cost in Japan again?
Shellshock929
Member
How much do you guys expect Resident Evil Revelations to sell in its lifetime? I'm hoping it reaches 500,000 at least.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
True enough. So... go Apple?
*sees thread about Apple trying to sue the bankrupt Kodak*
Fuck. Um... go Google?
MikeE21286
Member
They can't drop the price now. It wouldn't do anything more than a blip for a couple weeks.
ScreenSplitter
Member
No doubt. Seems to be the go to "proper" title for the 3DS.
I wouldn't worry about the Vita; even thought it's a similar situation to the 3DS, and I never remember even that selling this low, it'll pick up Steam around E3 when all the cool games get announced.
But seriously Sony, learn to global launch. It's just fucking sloppy.
frankie_baby
Member
might have a shot with a best release
MeBecomingI
Member
Wow, those Vita numbers are depressing. Sony has to move quickly... start announcing things and getting the word out and cut the price if you have too. Anything that could help push the hardware. Otherwise, those are some pretty decent numbers for Gravity Rush, but not enough. I don't think there is much in the immediate pipeline for the machine either. Granted, it is early, but it isn't looking good.
They didn't really have much choice, ironically the jump to HD forced 3rd party's hands. So they lost the 3rd party dominance which assured the PS2's success.
Also with MH, Vita meant increased development costs. I wouldn't be surprised at all if MH 3DS was part of the original agreement for Tri. The 3DS would gave been well into development by then, and it would have made perfect sense for Nintendo to secure both rather than just the console one.
Also perfect sense for Capcom as well, as development costs would be recouped across both platforms going forward.
BlazingDarkness
Member
I'd say 380K or so, though I'm not informed of the release schedule for the rest of the year for the 3DS, if it has no compelling third party stuff Revelations could have longer legs
They lack Japanese first party presence. GT takes 9 years to develop and doesn't exactly sell Pokemon numbers in Japan. Sony probably doesn't have the money to hat MH anyway.
The only reason PSP took off in Japan was MH. Now they need another miracle for any sort of ascension.
It's a shame as they've created a really great piece of hardware.
Thing is Nintendo is also bending for 3rd Party Support - they are publishing titles in the west, offering demos, paid dlc and stuff which probably would have been points that sony could have used to secure some exclusives.
But right now, with Nintendo improving their online plattform and the system sellin so well - most publishers will cater to the established userbase. They nintendo can`t and wont let the system die, price drop and MH Betrayal probably re-established that mindset. They arent screwin around this time.
But right now, with Nintendo improving their online plattform and the system sellin so well - most publishers will cater to the established userbase. They nintendo can`t and wont let the system die, price drop and MH Betrayal probably re-established that mindset. They arent screwin around this time.
The biggest problem with the Vita's ability to attract good software for it in the long run is imo the way it was designed. As it is now, when you compare the 3DS with the Vita, the Vita is a more graphically advanced 3DS in terms of what games it can offer. And both the 3DS and Vita are more graphically advanced evolutions of the PSP, in terms of what games it can offer.
This puts the Vita at a serious disadvantage. What allowed the PSP to crawl back from the pits of doom to become a huge cultural significance in the Japanese game industry was that it could offer game experiences which were appealing to the Japanese market which were not possible at all on the DS. You could do something similar on the DS, but it just wouldn't feel or play the same, unless you had very low standards. There's no analog, the 3D capabilities were very weak, cart capacity was a constant problem. The DS thrived on the sort of games which people felt weren't hurt by this disadvantage, but it also allowed the PSP to gain an advantage in being the place to go for the sort of games which were hurt by this disadvantage on the DS>
Right now, the Vita has certain things in the hardware would might also make this sort of split feasible in theory: open world games and shooters which require two analog sticks to work properly. These are the two main areas I can think of, while there could be others that simply haven't been explored yet so we wouldn't know. But here we run into another problem. These are not things which are awfully popular in Japan at the moment. They're much more popular than before, but it's still not something which Japanese developers can totally leverage on because they lack experience in designing such games.
If Japanese developers change the way they design software significantly over the next few years and continue to adapt more western friendly appeal into their designs, and if the Japanese market becomes even more receptive of such games, the Vita could definitely stand to gain in the long run because such games would be very hard to replicate well on the 3DS. But that's a very big if. It's one long term strategy solution I see for Sony though. I don't see many others.
This puts the Vita at a serious disadvantage. What allowed the PSP to crawl back from the pits of doom to become a huge cultural significance in the Japanese game industry was that it could offer game experiences which were appealing to the Japanese market which were not possible at all on the DS. You could do something similar on the DS, but it just wouldn't feel or play the same, unless you had very low standards. There's no analog, the 3D capabilities were very weak, cart capacity was a constant problem. The DS thrived on the sort of games which people felt weren't hurt by this disadvantage, but it also allowed the PSP to gain an advantage in being the place to go for the sort of games which were hurt by this disadvantage on the DS>
Right now, the Vita has certain things in the hardware would might also make this sort of split feasible in theory: open world games and shooters which require two analog sticks to work properly. These are the two main areas I can think of, while there could be others that simply haven't been explored yet so we wouldn't know. But here we run into another problem. These are not things which are awfully popular in Japan at the moment. They're much more popular than before, but it's still not something which Japanese developers can totally leverage on because they lack experience in designing such games.
If Japanese developers change the way they design software significantly over the next few years and continue to adapt more western friendly appeal into their designs, and if the Japanese market becomes even more receptive of such games, the Vita could definitely stand to gain in the long run because such games would be very hard to replicate well on the 3DS. But that's a very big if. It's one long term strategy solution I see for Sony though. I don't see many others.
Not quite. Nintendo can always rely on its strong 1st party to bail them out, while Sony can't.