Support NeoGAF

[sörine]

Well then most people would be wrong. "Supply constrained" has an actual meaning. There are stores that want to stock and sell them, but they can't, because they can't get units from Sony. It's supply constrained.

We don't know how many additional units Sony needs to ship in order to fill the channel and meet demand, but we know that they need to ship some.

Supply constrained means demand is outstripping supply. I don't think we can definitively say that's the case right now and the limited sellouts (with timely restocks) we've been seeing at some retailers certainly doesn't imply so.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Can either of you show me a source where Nintendo has said that "WiiU is dead" or that they are even starting to move on from it please ?. The QOL platform is something completely different from a home console. Last time Iwata spoke about WiiU he was talking about bringing games out that would show why the tablet exists which would in turn drive further hardware sales, far from calling it "dead"...

Well of course Iwata isn't going to get up and say "lulz, WiiU is totes dead, peace out". What he did cover at the last investor briefing was a half hearted "maybe some of these GamePad focussed titles will change things because we can't price drop or cut the GamePad out" and then no further elaborations on where the incredibly troubled WiiU was going next, while also totally sidestepping questions as to its total death as a third party supported platform.

The slides that also pointed towards the next devices sharing game engines between portable and home was their focus going forward alongside QoL. The reading between the lines there is "yeah we know WiiU is gonna ride out into oblivion, heres where we're going next time around".

Are you really expecting Mario Kart and Smash alone to turn the consoles fortunes around, or some random GamePad game to revolutionise the world, honestly? Is it perhaps not telling that pretty much all of this messageboard accepts the WiiU as a done deal, even most of its totally ardent supporters included in that analysis? There is no way back from its sales. The "wait for _____" meme passed beyond anything to even consider as a serious viewpoint late last year.

 

[B.O.O.M]

The sentiment I've gleaned from people in Japan is the console isn't hard to find if you want it. Generally "no stock anywhere" is closer to what most would consider supply constrained, like PS4 in the west or the early days of Wii and DS Lite.

You are basically saying it's supply constrained but can be found if one needs to in other locations. Basically you both were correct. But there's a clear definition for the term supply constrained.

 

[sörine]

You are basically saying it's supply constrained but can be found if one needs to in other locations. Basically you both were correct. But there's a clear definition for the term supply constrained.

If you can readily buy a console it's not supply constrained.

 

[B.O.O.M]

If you can readily buy a console it's not supply constrained.

If you can't readily buy the console from the location you want, if that location (store) is waiting for new stock, then it is

Stop making up random definitions to support your argument

 

[allan-bh]

If we have ~50k unsold consoles from launch+second shipment and LTD is 370k, seems to me that a demand problem is here.

 

[DragonSworne]

If ~50k unsold consoles from launch+second shipment= 370k LTD, seems to me that a demand problem is here.

There was no second shipment?

 

[Apophis2036]

Well of course Iwata isn't going to get up and say "lulz, WiiU is totes dead, peace out". What he did cover at the last investor briefing was a half hearted "maybe some of these GamePad focussed titles will change things because we can't price drop or cut the GamePad out" and then no further elaborations on where the incredibly troubled WiiU was going next, while also totally sidestepping questions as to its total death as a third party supported platform.

The slides that also pointed towards the next devices sharing game engines between portable and home was their focus going forward alongside QoL. The reading between the lines there is "yeah we know WiiU is gonna ride out into oblivion, heres where we're going next time around".

His hands are tied on a WiiU price cut at the moment because the company is losing money and 3DS is in a sales decline. Several things could change before the release of MK8 though, like production costs going down or currency conversion rates. I personally think there will be a price cut and large marketing push for MK8's release in late May, they know it's one of their final chances to get the system moving.

The stuff about the future is just that, the future, where the handheld and console will be "brothers" as he put it so game development is much faster and linked accounts will be possible. Is the 3DS "dead" because he talked about the next handheld aswell ?...

The QOL product is in his own words a separate venture from their main console business and was a glimpse of the future for investors.

Are you really expecting Mario Kart and Smash alone to turn the consoles fortunes around, or some random GamePad game to revolutionise the world, honestly? Is it perhaps not telling that pretty much all of this messageboard accepts the WiiU as a done deal, even most of its totally ardent supporters included in that analysis? There is no way back from its sales. The "wait for _____" meme passed beyond anything to even consider as a serious viewpoint late last year.

Did you even read my last post ?... I already said that no one single game would "turn the consoles fortunes around". It will take a combination of good Gamepad focused experiences, much better marketing, more big name Nintendo IP's (like DKC, MK, Smash and Zelda) and a price cut to $249 / £179 / Y25 000 to have any significant impact on hardware sales.

Also if "message boards" got everything right all the time then Platinum's games would be 10 million sellers and no one would have bought Xbone because 720p is so last gen.

It should also be noted that when I'm talking about things that could change the consoles fortunes for the better I'm in no way suggesting it will suddenly catch fire like the original Wii and sell 50+ million units. At best I see WiiU selling 21 million units Worldwide and only then if the console is supported until Spring 2016.

 

[B.O.O.M]

If ~50k unsold consoles from launch+second shipment= 370k LTD, seems to me that a demand problem is here.

If this was aimed at me, I'm not saying the demand is high..I'm sure the demand isn't too high at the moment. It will pick up with the games which will really pick up once the devs/pubs transition from ps3 to PS4 in Japan. I doubt sony would care too much either..they just hit 6mil in about 3.5 months WW. Securing the western markets is much more crucial than Japan.

I'm just saying the person who defined the term supply constrained isn't wrong.

edit: and as asked above...what second shipment?

 

[Glass Joe]

His hands are tied on a WiiU price cut at the moment because the company is losing money and 3DS is in a sales decline. Several things could change before the release of MK8 though, like production costs going down or currency conversion rates. I personally think there will be a price cut and large marketing push for MK8's release in late May, they know it's one of their final chances to get the system moving.

The stuff about the future is just that, the future, where the handheld and console will be "brothers" as he put it so game development is much faster and linked accounts will be possible. Is the 3DS "dead" because he talked about the next handheld aswell ?...

The QOL product is in his own words a separate venture from their main console business and was a glimpse of the future for investors.

As a Wii U fan, I know where the other posters are coming from with that investor's meeting stuff. They didn't offer any relevant game plan to get the Wii U moving & shaking and instead diverted focus to things happening far in the future, like QOL and even future hardware. The focus was not the short term. It was disappointing to say the least.

I wouldn't count on the production costs of Wii U going down significantly any time soon. That tends to happen when many units are selling and they're able to place larger manufacturing orders.

I do, however, feel that a Mario Kart 8 bundle, and/or a price drop to coincide with its release could be a major shot in the arm. I even think stockholders would understand a loss if they do this and the system starts turning around. I just don't have the faith in Nintendo to do it. It's like they have an open wound that they won't treat. They just hope it will heal soon on its own.

 

[sörine]

If you can't readily buy the console from the location you want, if that location (store) is waiting for new stock, then it is

Stop making up random definitions to support your argument

Demand isn't outstripping supply in that scenario, the system isn't supply constrained. This isn't a random definition.

From what we can tell sales are brisk, there are some sellouts and frequent restocks. Sales seem fine and there don't seem to be extraordinary shortages or surpluses in the supply chain. That means PS4 is not supply constrained.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Several things could change before the release of MK8 though, like production costs going down or currency conversion rates.

The truth is Nintendo is sitting on too many WiiU's already made and in warehouses which is why they can't price drop. Production costs wont go down because the less bulk production that is required, the more expensive factory lines become. This is why when a product stalls as the WiiU has, there is pretty much no way back unless you're prepared to sink a really frightful amount of money into a total loss-leader through price-cut.

Did you even read my last post ?... I already said that no one single game would "turn the consoles fortunes around". It will take a combination of good Gamepad focused experiences, much better marketing, more big name Nintendo IP's (like DKC, MK, Smash and Zelda) and a price cut to $249 / £179 / Y25 000 to have any significant impact on hardware sales.

DKC has already proven to be a total non-factor in Japan, and thats with the argument of the WiiU's first year library behind it and the media's short-sighted "get a WiiU over those other consoles!" splurge late last year. The white whale that is "better marketing" is tiresome to hear because the product is just clearly undesirable to the mass-market and no campaign is going to surmount that.

Where are you realistically expecting the following 15 million consoles sold to come from in the next 2 or so years to get it to the 21 point and match Gamecube? During its period of most momentum in its first year as a new product that might have a future life before PS4 and Xbone came along and wrecked that perception, it struggled to sell 5 million. That 5 million a year isn't some baseline the WiiU is even close to closing on when you consider the precipitous YoY decline a "doomed" system experiences.

 

[Apophis2036]

As a Wii U fan, I know where the other posters are coming from with that investor's meeting stuff. They didn't offer any relevant game plan to get the Wii U moving & shaking and instead diverted focus to things happening far in the future, like QOL and even future hardware. The focus was not the short term. It was disappointing to say the least.

I wouldn't count on the production costs of Wii U going down significantly any time soon. That tends to happen when many units are selling and they're able to place larger manufacturing orders.

I do, however, feel that a Mario Kart 8 bundle, and/or a price drop to coincide with its release could be a major shot in the arm. I even think stockholders would understand a loss if they do this and the system starts turning around. I just don't have the faith in Nintendo to do it. It's like they have an open wound that they won't treat. They just hope it will heal soon on its own.

Nintendo won't be announcing any major software plans at financial meetings, they will be doing it at either E3 or an E3 Direct where the Worlds media will be in attendance / watching.

I agree about a bundle, I could see a MK8 bundle for $299 rather than a price cut of the NSMB / WWHD Bundles to $249 but who knows. Depends on whether they would be prepared to essentially give MK8 away for free to generate hardware sales.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Demand isn't outstripping supply in that scenario, the system isn't supply constrained. This isn't a random definition.

From what we can tell sales are brisk, there are some sellouts and frequent restocks. Sales seem fine and there don't seem to be extraordinary shortages or surpluses in the supply chain. That means PS4 is not supply constrained.

Yes demand is outstripping supply if some places run out of stock. It's not an overall 'system' based definition. It's location based. So yes it's a random definition by you.

Extraordinary shortages, or surpluses have nothing to do with this. You are just now moving your goalpost to the 'system' being supply constrained.

This really isn't anything complicated and I feel I'm wasting my time arguing about this with you. PS4 is supply constrained everywhere, JP is no exception. Doesn't mean there's some extraordinary demand for the system either..I fully expect sales to suck overall until 2015 in the least in JP.

 

[Apophis2036]

The truth is Nintendo is sitting on too many WiiU's already made and in warehouses which is why they can't price drop. Production costs wont go down because the less bulk production that is required, the more expensive factory lines become. This is why when a product stalls as the WiiU has, there is pretty much no way back unless you're prepared to sink a really frightful amount of money into a total loss-leader through price-cut.

But do we actually know how many consoles have been sold and how many have been shipped ?, without accurate sales numbers we can only speculate as to how many consoles are sitting unsold in retailer factories / store shelves.

DKC has already proven to be a total non-factor in Japan, and thats with the argument of the WiiU's first year library behind it and the media's short-sighted "get a WiiU over those other consoles!" splurge late last year. The white whale that is "better marketing" is tiresome to hear because the product is just clearly undesirable to the mass-market and no campaign is going to surmount that.

My view is that WiiU software, especially IP as big as DKC should not be judged on first month sales, it might have done poorly in Japan at launch, of that their is no doubt but it's one of the top five IP's from Nintendo that will continue to sell for the full life cycle of the console. It wouldn't surprise me if Tropical Freeze was only behind NSMBU, 3D World, MK8 and Smash in terms of lifetime WiiU software sales.

How much that number is, is very dependant on how well the console sells in the next three years which is in turn is dependant on how good the Gamepad focused games are, how well it's marketed and how much they can get the cost down on the hardware in combination with the big name 2014 / 2015 Nintendo titles.

Where are you realistically expecting the following 15 million consoles sold to come from in the next 2 or so years to get it to the 21 point and match Gamecube? During its period of most momentum in its first year as a new product that might have a future life before PS4 and Xbone came along and wrecked that perception, it struggled to sell 5 million. That 5 million a year isn't some baseline the WiiU is even close to closing on when you consider the precipitous YoY decline a "doomed" system experiences.

As I have said it's sold what 5 million units ?, off the back of no "killer app", awful software droughts, terrible marketing all the while being extremely overpriced and with only two Mario games, WWHD and Pikmin 3 released in terms of big name Nintendo titles. With games that show off why the Gamepad exists, improved marketing, a price drop and ten more big name Nintendo titles in the next two years, it has a good chance of matching Gamecube LTD's imo.

 

[test_account]

Demand isn't outstripping supply in that scenario, the system isn't supply constrained. This isn't a random definition.

From what we can tell sales are brisk, there are some sellouts and frequent restocks. Sales seem fine and there don't seem to be extraordinary shortages or surpluses in the supply chain. That means PS4 is not supply constrained.

If you cant get a PS4 (or whatevery item is must be for that matter) in one or several regions, its can definitelly be concidered as supply constrained. Some people have indeed given anecdotal evidence that you can find a PS4 without any much trouble in some areas as you mentioned, but we have no idea how the situation is all over Japan. If its hard to find in one region, then its supply contstrained there.

EDIT: And just to be clear, if new supply comes in after just two days or something, and is in steady supply since then, then its no longer supply constrained of course. But it could have been supply constrained several of places in those two days (or how long it was).

 

[Z3M0G]

Why?

It's do better than any console wolrd wide. If anything we need one for
"Console Gaming in Japan"

I'd like to see one of these... just to see what types of things would get listed on the board. Half of the list would be "Final Fantasy".

Seriously though... I want PS4 to revive console gaming in Japan... I miss my JRPGs from the PS2 days... But I know it won't happen.

Vita, save me!

Supply constrained argument will die soon.

Demand is low, it's time to recognize that.

How can people make statements like this after one week of sales?

 

[michaelius]

We know Nintendo is sitting on huge inventory of unsold items in warehouses from financial reports.

Those are Wii Us and 3DSes

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Hoping Psycho_Mantis makes one of his walls of shame

It will be like 2 people lol. Hardly anyone posted their expectations.

Anyway about the stock situation:

PS4
1st week: 40-50k consoles unsold.
Mon - Wed of 2nd Week: PS4 sold out, new shipment coming Wed/Thur (very small <50k)
Mon - Wed of 3rd Week: PS4 apparently sold out? new shipment date??

So my estimate is 60k for 2nd week leaving 30-40k consoles for the next week, which then get sold by the middle of next week. Shipments may continue to be low because lets face it compared to the West the demand for PS4 in Japan is low.

 

[Glass Joe]

But do we actually know how many consoles have been sold and how many have been shipped ?, without accurate sales numbers we can only speculate as to how many consoles are sitting unsold in retailer factories / store shelves.

I think the factor is how many Wii U's are sitting on Nintendo's docks, not shipping? They had forecasted some 9 million earlier and only got 2.8 out the door. Surely there's some collecting dust. The point being even if not factoring that, this isn't the DS or PS2. They can't make massive orders to their manufacturer for units, which is typically what reduces hardware costs.

 

[Apophis2036]

I'd like to see one of these... just to see what types of things would get listed on the board. Half of the list would be "Final Fantasy".

10 off the top of my head -

Monster Hunter 5.
Final Fantasy XV.
Kingdom Hearts 3.
MGS Ground Zeros.
Resident Evil 7.
MGS V.
Mario Kart 8.
Smash U.
Zelda U.
Pokemon U.

 

[sörine]

If you cant get a PS4 (or whatevery item is must be for that matter) in one or several regions, its can definitelly be concidered as supply constrained. Some people have indeed given anecdotal evidence that you can find a PS4 without any much trouble in some areas as you mentioned, but we have no idea how the situation is all over Japan. If its hard to find in one region, then its supply contstrained there.

We have no indication of regional supply constraints even though. We've had retail reports of some stores selling out and anecdotal reports that the system is generally available. I mean it's certainly possible but based on the information we have now I wouldn't definitively call PS4 supply constrained in Japan.

 

[Orgen]

It will be like 2 people lol. Hardly anyone posted their expectations.

You can take the March predictions. I can assure you that it'll be a lot of fun

 

[Glass Joe]

How can people make statements like this after one week of sales?

Forecast GAF has a doom fetish. Some were calling out PS4 launch figures of sub 150k before the quite respectable numbers came out. If the numbers this week are as low as many are saying, I do feel it will be a supply issue. Granted I don't think PS4 will catch such a large flame in Japan as the rest of the world, but it's too soon to just drop off so rapidly like that for no reason.

 

[Apophis2036]

I think the factor is how many Wii U's are sitting on Nintendo's docks, not shipping? They had forecasted some 9 million earlier and only got 2.8 out the door. Surely there's some collecting dust. The point being even if not factoring that, this isn't the DS or PS2. They can't make massive orders to their manufacturer for units, which is typically what reduces hardware costs.

I could be totally wrong, game sales predictions are just a bit of light entertainment for me. Mr Mantis and Chris can feel free to bookmark my predictions and then "humiliate" me later... LOL.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

I could be totally wrong, game sales predictions are just a bit of light entertainment for me. Mr Mantis and Chris can feel free to bookmark my predictions and then "humiliate" me later... LOL.

it's a lifestyle

lol

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You can take the March predictions. I can assure you that it'll be a lot of fun

Nah its too formal. There nothing to be ashamed getting a prediction wrong in a prediction league.

My post was just to highlight the under estimation.

 

[Glass Joe]

I could be totally wrong, game sales predictions are just a bit of light entertainment for me. Mr Mantis and Chris can feel free to bookmark my predictions and then "humiliate" me later... LOL.

Don't be ha ha. You'd be weird if you were right! Just look at Patcher.

 

[saichi]

Based on the (little) info we have, somewhere around 60k doesnt seem that surprising to me. Out of curiousity, what do you expecting for the 2nd week?

actually I think it didn't come out properly as what I meant. Before the report today, I don't see anyone expecting 60K week 2 number for PS4. After the report came out this morning, suddenly everyone is expecting 60K for 2nd week. I'm not saying PS4 would sell more but rather people changed their expectations.

 

[dolemite]

PS4 50-60k

Something is very wrong with the Japanese market. Not sure whom or what to blame.

 

[Chris1964]

If you can't readily buy the console from the location you want, if that location (store) is waiting for new stock, then it is

PS4 had a 87% at launch week. Some stores were probably sold out, some had stock.

But it wasn't supply constrained. PS2 was, DS was, Wii was, PS4 at west is.

 

[Glass Joe]

Something is very wrong with the Japanese market. Not sure whom or what to blame.

Well there could be something to all the talk that console gaming is dying in Japan. PS2 sold 20 million in Japan. PS3 is about half at just under 10 million. For as popular as Wii was worldwide, that was only about 12 million.

Or it could be supply issues and an overreaction to nothing.

Or it could be that most of the PS4 games are geared towards a Western audience that doesn't cater to Japanese tastes.

Or it could have something to do with Japan getting PS4 last. If a company from my home country did that, I'd be a little miffed, especially when I'm used to the reverse. Regardless, next gen (or excuse me, current gen) has a long life ahead.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Or it could be supply issues and an overreaction to nothing.

How much has been shipped to japan, exactly? Do we know?

And how much of the shipments do the non-Media Create/Famitsu/Degenki tracked stores account for?

This is what we need to know. Aside that, anything selling over 80% sell through is pretty much sold out, which the PS4 is until the Starter bundles arrive there on the 7th.

 

[Mpl90]

How much has been shipped to japan, exactly? Do we know?

And how much of the shipments do the non-Media Create/Famitsu/Degenki tracked stores account for?

This is what we need to know. Aside that, anything selling over 80% sell through is pretty much sold out, which the PS4 is until the Starter bundles arrive there on the 7th.

Anything over 90% is quite near to the sold out status, but it also depends on the amount of shipment. In the sense, for a 50,000 units shipment, 85% can be equal to sold out, since only 7,500 units would be available across the country. In the case of PS4, something that shipped around 370,000 units, 85-87% is a great sell-through, but not sold out, since it leaves 40-50,000 units across the country. And, in this case, despite the rumoured low second week shipment, the console can be found. Sold out in some places, available in others = you can find it. If this is something that can happen in shipping 370-400,000 units in the first week, while also having good first week sales hardware wise, the same can't be said when the shipment is very low and there were already units across the country from the first shipment.

 

[Days like these...]

I don't know if the ps4 is supply constrained or not but if it's not I think 50k for the 2nd week is very bad. What I do know is that the narrative is changing from "The ps4 will save Japan and will sell more than the ps 3" to "It doesn't matter if it sells horribly because 'Murica, Yurop and where else are 3rd parties going to go?"

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I don't know if the ps4 is supply constrained or not but if it's not I think 50k for the 2nd week is very bad. What I do know is that the narrative is changing from "The ps4 will save Japan and will sell more than the ps 3" to "It doesn't matter if it sells horribly because 'Murica, Yurop and where else are 3rd parties going to go?"

So a 50k second week somehow means PS4 won't sell more than PS3 in 5-6 years time?

Some of you guys are extrapolating way too hard. I do wonder how many people in the previous MC threads thought this about the PS3 and its poor first year and how many were surprised to see it end at 10 million.

 

[Tripon]

So a 50k second week somehow means PS4 won't sell more than PS3 in 5-6 years time?

Some of you guys are extrapolating way too hard. I do wonder how many people in the previous MC threads thought this about the PS3 and its poor first year and how many were surprised to see it end at 10 million.

Selling 10 million in 8 years is not a great feat. If there were people who projected 10 million for the PS3, they certainly didnt expect it to take so long.

 

[Days like these...]

So a 50k second week somehow means PS4 won't sell more than PS3 in 5-6 years time?

Some of you guys are extrapolating way too hard. I do wonder how many people in the previous MC threads thought this about the PS3 and its poor first year and how many were surprised to see it end at 10 million.

Like I said maybe it is supply constrained still I don't think it'll do as well as the ps3

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Selling 10 million in 8 years is not a great feat. If there were people who projected 10 million for the PS3, they certainly didnt expect it to take so long.

Completely missed the point. How many people predicted PS3 would sell that much in the first place after its launch.

 

[jcm]

PS4 had a 87% at launch week. Some stores were probably sold out, some had stock.

But it wasn't supply constrained. PS2 was, DS was, Wii was, PS4 at west is.

Sony supplies retailers with PS4. Many retailers are out of stock, because Sony is not able to supply enough units to meet their demand. This is the definition of a supply constraint. The fact that there is still some number of units available in the country is immaterial.

 

[Darius]

Will be interesting to see what the excuses will be if the decline continues in the upcoming weeks. The damage control is already hard at work.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Will be interesting to see what the excuses will be if the decline continues in the upcoming weeks. The damage control is already hard at work.

Ooh what kind of decline are you seeing? Decline could mean many things number wise.

 

[Principate]

The decline will be inevitable and it'd likely be significant over the coming weeks to months it'd be more shocking if it didn't decline.

This is a console where you can struggle to name the number of notable Japanese releases on single hand for the first year and none of those games are major sellers.

Anyone implying otherwise is deluding themselves. The only way this console was going to consistently sell was to ride on a massive amount of hype until a more regular release schedule arrives. This isn't a normal drought this is a desert.

Let's just hope for the sake of the Japanese console industry Sony can weather it.

 

[Majmun]

Some people really want the Ps4 to fail in Japan

The console will do fine. Of course there will be a decline in the coming weeks. The software just isn't there yet.

And yes, the Ps4 has currently enough games that cater to the Western audience. That's why it's doing so well here.

 

[Rolf NB]

Supply constrained means demand is outstripping supply. I don't think we can definitively say that's the case right now and the limited sellouts (with timely restocks) we've been seeing at some retailers certainly doesn't imply so.

Supply constraint means supply constrains sales. And it does. Even if only one store can't sell because they cannot get stock, that is still a supply constraint.

 

[Tripon]

Completely missed the point. How many people predicted PS3 would sell that much in the first place after its launch.

Are you really saying that because the PS3 generation was one of the longest in console history, that shouldn't be taken into account?

 

[Tripon]

Supply constraint means supply constrains sales. And it does. Even if only one store can't sell because they cannot get stock, that is still a supply constraint.

So the wii u and 3ds is supply contained because amazon US is out of stock. </snark>

 

[Soriku]

Something is very wrong with the Japanese market. Not sure whom or what to blame.

PS4 has no gaymzz.

Very odd to expect some kind of massive uptake on the PS4 when most people prefer handhelds in Japan and the PS4 doesn't have a stellar library yet. And PS3 is still getting many of the good games.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Are you really saying that because the PS3 generation was one of the longest in console history, that shouldn't be taken into account?

Oh boy, still not answering the question:

How many people predicted PS3 would sell that much in the first place after its launch.

 

[Darius]

Oh boy, still not answering the question:

What are you talking about? Most people attributed the bad sales to the system beeing overpriced and that price drops would change its trajectory, that after 8 years it still hasn´t sold 10m units isn´t an achievement, considering it is the only system that got 3rd party support from the get go.