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Media Create Sales: Week 8, 2014 (Feb 17 - Feb 23)

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
For some context, here's other first to second weeks progressions (Famitsu)

PS2 (Launch Date: March 4th, 2000) - 630,552 --> 154,245 ( -75.5%)
Gamecube (LD: September 14th, 2001) - 133,719 --> 29,209 ( -78.2%)
Xbox (LD: February 22nd, 2002)- 123,929 --> 37,147 ( -70%)

GBA (LD: March 21st, 2001)- 611,504 --> 323,686 ( -47.1%)

DS (LD: December 2nd, 2004)- 441,485 --> 181,231 ( -59%)
PSP (LD: December 12th, 2004)- 166,074 --> 81,355 ( -51%)

Xbox 360 (LD: December 10th, 2005) - 62,135 --> 12,320 ( -80.2%)
PS3 (LD: November 11th, 2006)- 88,443 --> 43,378 ( -51%)
Wii (LD: December 2nd, 2006)- 371,936 --> 109,068 ( -70.7%)

3DS (LD: February 26th, 2011) - 374,764 --> 209,623 ( -44.1%)*
PSV (LD: December 17th, 2011) - 324,859 --> 72,479 ( -77.7%)*

Wii U (LD: December 8th, 2012) - 308,570 --> 130,653 ( -57.7%)

Rumoured

PS4 (LD: February 22nd, 2014) - 322,083 --> 50,000/60,000 ( -84.5%/ -81.4%)

*=Media Create datas
 
S

sörine

Banned
Rolf NB said:
Supply constraint means supply constrains sales. And it does. Even if only one store can't sell because they cannot get stock, that is still a supply constraint.
Click to expand...
If people can go to another store and easily buy something then that product isn't supply constrained.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
jcm said:
Sony supplies retailers with PS4. Many retailers are out of stock, because Sony is not able to supply enough units to meet their demand. This is the definition of a supply constraint. The fact that there is still some number of units available in the country is immaterial.
Click to expand...

This looks like bad sharing of shipment between stores. There weren't some few PS4 available. They were 50k.
 
T

Tripon

Member
Psycho_Mantis said:
Oh boy, still not answering the question:
Click to expand...
You're missing the point. People were expecting a normal 4-5 year console cycle. Few, if any expected the last console cycle to last 8 years. I mean really, you want to win this argument so bad that you are willing to ignore all context.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Apophis2036 said:
Can either of you show me a source where Nintendo has said that "WiiU is dead" or that they are even starting to move on from it please ?. The QOL platform is something completely different from a home console. Last time Iwata spoke about WiiU he was talking about bringing games out that would show why the tablet exists which would in turn drive further hardware sales, far from calling it "dead"...
Click to expand...
Nintendo isn't going to issue a press release about how their ailing system is essentially done as a relevant market player. Sony isn't going to issue a statement about how the Vita is six feet under. Read the obvious subtext between the lines.
Apophis2036 said:
I don't really get why people won't open their mind to the possibility that a combination of Tropical Freeze, MK8, Hyrule Warriors, Sonic Boom, Bayonetta 2, X and Smash will all improve the consoles value proposition to consumers in 2014, esp if it's combined with a price cut and much better marketing.
Click to expand...
Nintendo isn't going to cut the price further on the system when they're sitting on "$2B" in unsold inventory that, afaik, has yet to be impaired, and the focus is on return to profitability. Marketing, which on here is typically just used in substitution of the word "advertising" for some reason, isn't going to make the fundamentally unappealing product appealing.

Bolded are the only two games amongst that list that will likely sell in reasonably large quantities. The may improve the benefits side of the value equation, I doubt they will for many people beyond the audiences already buying the system change the value equation enough to give the Wii U a value proposition sufficient to compel purchase. Singular titles rarely do, as opposed to sustained, healthy, vibrant software ecosystems.
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
sörine;103153622 said:
We have no indication of regional supply constraints even though. We've had retail reports of some stores selling out and anecdotal reports that the system is generally available. I mean it's certainly possible but based on the information we have now I wouldn't definitively call PS4 supply constrained in Japan.
Click to expand...
Sure, on a regional basis, it doesnt seem to be any strong anecdotal evidence that back that claim up indeed. I just ment that its possible that something can be supply constrained at specific places. B.O.O.M also mentioned that, and he said that both were right :) (both were right, as in, the PS4 might not be supply constrained all over Japan, but it could be supply constrained in certain areas).


saichi said:
actually I think it didn't come out properly as what I meant. Before the report today, I don't see anyone expecting 60K week 2 number for PS4. After the report came out this morning, suddenly everyone is expecting 60K for 2nd week. I'm not saying PS4 would sell more but rather people changed their expectations.
Click to expand...
I understand. I think that is normal though, people get new information and adjust their predictions accordingly. There doesnt seem to be any solid info on how big a potential 2nd shipment was though, so its hard to say for sure if 60k will be very accurate or not. We will see tomorrow :)
 
J

Jamix012

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Bolded are the only two games amongst that list that will likely sell in reasonably large quantities. The may improve the benefits side of the value equation, I doubt they will for many people beyond the audiences already buying the system change the value equation enough to give the Wii U a value proposition sufficient to compel purchase. Singular titles rarely do, as opposed to sustained, healthy, vibrant software ecosystems.
Click to expand...

I think if the cartoon is popular, Sonic Boom could be a surprise success for the Wii U, particularly in the US. On top of that I expect like 300,000+ WW sales for Hyrule Warriors and about the same for "X". Not good numbers but I think they'll move a few Wii U units. If nothing else the Wii U will almost certainly be up YoY worldwide.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Mpl90 said:
For some context, here's other first to second weeks progressions (Famitsu)

PS2 (Launch Date: March 4th, 2000) - 630,552 --> 154,245 ( -75.5%)
Gamecube (LD: September 14th, 2001) - 133,719 --> 29,209 ( -78.2%)
Xbox (LD: February 22nd, 2002)- 123,929 --> 37,147 ( -70%)

GBA (LD: March 21st, 2001)- 611,504 --> 323,686 ( -47.1%)

DS (LD: December 2nd, 2004)- 441,485 --> 181,231 ( -59%)
PSP (LD: December 12th, 2004)- 166,074 --> 81,355 ( -51%)

Xbox 360 (LD: December 10th, 2005) - 62,135 --> 12,320 ( -80.2%)
PS3 (LD: November 11th, 2006)- 88,443 --> 43,378 ( -51%)
Wii (LD: December 2nd, 2006)- 371,936 --> 109,068 ( -70.7%)

3DS (LD: February 26th, 2011) - 374,764 --> 209,623 ( -44.1%)*
PSV (LD: December 17th, 2011) - 324,859 --> 72,479 ( -77.7%)*

Wii U (LD: December 8th, 2012) - 308,570 --> 130,653 ( -57.7%)

Rumoured

PS4 (LD: February 22nd, 2014) - 322,083 --> 50,000/60,000 ( -84.5%/ -81.4%)

*=Media Create datas
Click to expand...

That would be the most satanic drop in Japan ever.
 
L

L Thammy

Member
I'm still a confused as to how we should be reading this PS4 shipment situation. Did demand fall off a cliff already or is it mostly a low shipment to blame? Do we have to just wait until the next shipment to tell?

RalchAC said:
When Monster Hunter was released first Phantasy Star Online was already 4 years in the market. The genre wasn't that big, sure, but it existed.
Click to expand...

They aren't actually very similar in terms of gameplay. PSO was a level-grinding online loot game with little twitch skill involved. You primarily took down mobs of enemies and went further in the dungeon, with bosses only being every few floors and missions being optional. Monster Hunter is not like this.

If you're looking Monster Hunter's growth and suggesting other games in the genre could grow similarly, it's already ignoring that the circumstances are different. People know what to expect now. There can be other strong IPs in the genre (God Eater, Toukiden) but they will not likely have MH's unusual growth.

Yes, Portable was a straight port of G, aside from having local multiplayer instead of online. So "they had more oportunities to polish and balance that those news IPs" also doesn't work - especially considering that the genre was, again, new and untested.
 
J

Jonnyram

Member
pieatorium said:
like chris said earlier in the thread knack sellthrough % is baically ps4 sellthrough since its not available standalone
Click to expand...
Chris is full of shit. Knack has been available standalone since launch. Not a lot of retailers carried it day one because hardware came with it bundled, but it was released and some retailers actually carried it.
 
D

DrWong

Member
Jonnyram said:
Chris is full of shit. Knack has been available standalone since launch. Not a lot of retailers carried it day one because hardware came with it bundled, but it was released and some retailers actually carried it.
Click to expand...

"I think he's wrong" is also a good option. Just sayin'...
 
D

DaBoss

Member
According to this post, Knack is available as a stand-alone release. This was posted by Chris for what the new releases for this week in the previous thread.
Chris1964 said:
new releases

{2014.02.22}

[PS4] PlayStation 4 # <H-W> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥41.979)
[PS4] PlayStation 4 [First Limited Pack] <H-W> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥41.979)
[PS4] PlayStation 4 [First Limited Pack with PlayStation Camera] <H-W> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥46.179)
[PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥7.245)
[PS4] Knack <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥5.145)
[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600)
[PS4] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥7.980)
[PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥4.800)
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.190)
[PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.240)
[PS4] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥8.820)
[PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665)
[PS4] Need for Speed: &#8203;&#8203;Rivals <RCE> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665)
[PS4] FIFA 14 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665)
[PS4] NBA 2K14 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.090)
Click to expand...
But going by this thread's MC sales, there is only a 150 number difference between the PS4 and Knack and this thread's Famitsu shows no difference at all.

For the sales thread tomorrow, Knack would still be bundled with the PS4 right? The week after is when the bundling stops?
 
S

StreetsAhead

Member
Hoping for >50K opening for Fossil Fighters. Hopefully, people aren't exhausted after Pokemon, Youkai Watch, and Puzzle & Dragons doing so well recently.
 
H

Hero of Legend

Member
Sammy Samusu said:
http://www.siliconera.com/2013/10/31/devil-survivor-2-break-record-delayed-2014/

Is this game dead? What do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Atlus only has Conception 2 and Persona Q so far this year in NA on 3DS right? And just Persona Q in JP also right? Surely they can easily fit Devil Survivor 2: Break Record no prob. What was their lot last year on 3DS?

Shin Megami Tensei IV (JP & NA 2013, EU...)
Etrian Odyssey Untold (JP & NA 2013, EU 2014)
Etrian Odyssey IV (NA & EU)
Soul Hackers (NA & EU)

I think that's it for 2013 WW?
 
R

randomkid

Member
Hero of Legend said:
Atlus only has Conception 2 and Persona Q so far this year in NA on 3DS right? And just Persona Q in JP also right? Surely they can easily fit Devil Survivor 2: Break Record no prob. What was their lot last year on 3DS?

Shin Megami Tensei IV (JP & NA 2013, EU...)
Etrian Odyssey Untold (JP & NA 2013, EU 2014)
Etrian Odyssey IV (NA & EU)
Soul Hackers (NA & EU)

I think that's it for 2013 WW?
Click to expand...

Atlus teams make games for non-Nintendo systems too.

Of all the games I could imagine entering development hell, an enhanced port of Devil Survivor 2 would not have been at the top of my list. Would have liked to see this team work on a new IP or revive Majin Tensei instead. Maybe they'll end up helping out with SMT x FE if that ever happens.
 
H

Hero of Legend

Member
randomkid said:
Atlus teams make games for non-Nintendo systems too.

Of all the games I could imagine entering development hell, an enhanced port of Devil Survivor 2 would not have been at the top of my list. Would have liked to see this team work on a new IP or revive Majin Tensei instead. Maybe they'll end up helping out with SMT x FE if that ever happens.
Click to expand...

I know, I never said they didn't. :)
 
James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
Sony can barely even supply 60K per week for the US right now according to the last NPD, so I certainly don't expect that many shipments for Japan on an ongoing basis.

Hard to really tell what 60K means in the followup week with some stores apparently out of stock. Not suggesting there's blistering demand, but I don't think the drop off is really indicative of anything either way. We'll have to gauge the following weekly sales against stock resupply.
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
sörine;103171964 said:
If people can go to another store and easily buy something then that product isn't supply constrained.
Click to expand...
You are incorrect. I work in electronics distribution. If an active SKU is missing from a shelf in even one store, for even one day, that is supply constraint. Modern logistics methodologies such as TQM or Lean Sigma actively work to eliminate the possibility of this event. (It may sometimes occur anyway, especially in markets without VMI or heavily committed to JIT inventory, but it's always bad.)

By contrast, your definition would mean that we'd only use "supply constrained" if no stores anywhere had any stock. There's a word for that already: "unavailable". It may be useful to delineate degrees of supply constraint (e.g. "PS4 is not heavily supply constrained like PS2 was"), but the definition of the unmodified term is established.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Tripon said:
You're missing the point. People were expecting a normal 4-5 year console cycle. Few, if any expected the last console cycle to last 8 years. I mean really, you want to win this argument so bad that you are willing to ignore all context.
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter what people were expecting that point hardly anyone would have guessed PS3 would reach a 10 million LTD at the time. Point is its silly to judge a system's future on a couple weeks of data.

Also PS1 stop being tracked in 2004, 10 years after launch. PS2 was stopped in 2013, 13 years after launch. PS3 is no anomaly, playstation consoles usually have far longer tracking cycles than Nintendo consoles.
 
R

RalchAC

Member
L Thammy said:
They aren't actually very similar in terms of gameplay. PSO was a level-grinding online loot game with little twitch skill involved. You primarily took down mobs of enemies and went further in the dungeon, with bosses only being every few floors and missions being optional. Monster Hunter is not like this.

If you're looking Monster Hunter's growth and suggesting other games in the genre could grow similarly, it's already ignoring that the circumstances are different. People know what to expect now. There can be other strong IPs in the genre (God Eater, Toukiden) but they will not likely have MH's unusual growth.

Yes, Portable was a straight port of G, aside from having local multiplayer instead of online. So "they had more oportunities to polish and balance that those news IPs" also doesn't work - especially considering that the genre was, again, new and untested.
Click to expand...

Ok. I wasn't 100% sure about the last point, I think I put it in my comment. I don't expect a game to grow from 600k to 2 million in one entry, since as you said the genre isn't the "new cool thing" like it probably was during the early days of MonHun. That say, one of those IPs could grow (more slowly) and stay at 50-70% of MH sales. Especially since Japan isn't on multiplatform development and there is a "void" on the Vita (and homeconsoles, but that affects the West more than Japan) and its install base is growing.

I wasn't saying both are the same, but its roots are there. Capcom probably saw some potential and released their "vision", which was more skill based and less "JRPG" (in the same way, that SS ignores map structure and armor crafting and it's basically a boss battle arena game. Its roots aren't as clear as Toukiden, which is a lot more similar to MH).

I hope my points are more clear here. TL;DR I'm saying that the "posible contender" growth would probably be slower than MH's since it's not the "next cool thing" and word of mouth has already done its job to expand the genre.
 
M

michaelius

Banned
Hero of Legend said:
Atlus only has Conception 2 and Persona Q so far this year in NA on 3DS right? And just Persona Q in JP also right? Surely they can easily fit Devil Survivor 2: Break Record no prob. What was their lot last year on 3DS?

Shin Megami Tensei IV (JP & NA 2013, EU...)
Etrian Odyssey Untold (JP & NA 2013, EU 2014)
Etrian Odyssey IV (NA & EU)
Soul Hackers (NA & EU)

I think that's it for 2013 WW?
Click to expand...

They have 4 persona games scheduled for Japan this year.

Persona Q
Persona D
Ultimate Arena 2
Persona 5

That seems like quite a lot for relatively small company
 
R

RalchAC

Member
michaelius said:
They have 4 persona games scheduled for Japan this year.

Persona Q
Persona D
Ultimate Arena 2
Persona 5

That seems like quite a lot for relatively small company
Click to expand...

Persona Q -> Etrian Odyssey team.
Persona D -> Outsourced to Project Diva original developers.
Ultimate Arena -> Outsourced to ArcSystems Works (BlazBlue and Guilty Gear)
Persona 5 -> Persona team.

Only two of those projects are from Atlus studios, as pieatorium said.
 
U

unapersson

Member
Mpl90 said:
For some context, here's other first to second weeks progressions (Famitsu)

PS2 (Launch Date: March 4th, 2000) - 630,552 --> 154,245 ( -75.5%)
Gamecube (LD: September 14th, 2001) - 133,719 --> 29,209 ( -78.2%)
Xbox (LD: February 22nd, 2002)- 123,929 --> 37,147 ( -70%)

GBA (LD: March 21st, 2001)- 611,504 --> 323,686 ( -47.1%)

DS (LD: December 2nd, 2004)- 441,485 --> 181,231 ( -59%)
PSP (LD: December 12th, 2004)- 166,074 --> 81,355 ( -51%)

Xbox 360 (LD: December 10th, 2005) - 62,135 --> 12,320 ( -80.2%)
PS3 (LD: November 11th, 2006)- 88,443 --> 43,378 ( -51%)
Wii (LD: December 2nd, 2006)- 371,936 --> 109,068 ( -70.7%)

3DS (LD: February 26th, 2011) - 374,764 --> 209,623 ( -44.1%)*
PSV (LD: December 17th, 2011) - 324,859 --> 72,479 ( -77.7%)*

Wii U (LD: December 8th, 2012) - 308,570 --> 130,653 ( -57.7%)

Rumoured

PS4 (LD: February 22nd, 2014) - 322,083 --> 50,000/60,000 ( -84.5%/ -81.4%)

*=Media Create datas
Click to expand...

Does the data exist to add a total sell-through percentage to cover both weeks? As some drops will be related to supply so those raw numbers lack some context.
 
T

Turrican3

Member
Pie and Beans said:
The white whale that is "better marketing" is tiresome to hear because the product is just clearly undesirable to the mass-market and no campaign is going to surmount that.
Click to expand...
I could be very very wrong, but I still feel there *is* a marketing issue considering Nintendo itself acknowledges (and by anecdotal evidence I'm certainly able to confirm this) people are still confused about the Gamepad being an add-on to the previous generation console.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
While waiting to know if the Yodobashi's link is correct or not, the situation on Amazon (console + games already out)

Time: 18:31 JPT

PS4 - 8th (available, even if Amazon at first stated it would have been on March 7th)

PS4 Limited Pack - 30th (sold by third party, with a markup)

Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition - 31st

Yakuza Ishin - 36th

Battlefield 4 - 38th

PS4 + Camera Limited Pack - 60th (sold by a third party, with a markup)

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag - 63rd
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Turrican3 said:
I could be very very wrong, but I still feel there *is* a marketing issue considering Nintendo itself acknowledges (and by anecdotal evidence I'm certainly able to confirm this) people are still confused about the Gamepad being an add-on to the previous generation console.
Click to expand...

Iwata and Nintendo have been banging that drum for a straight year without much changing sales wise, even after a fair few different stabs at "the marketing". The fact is you need a desirable device to market before any whizzbang wow campaign is going to do anything for it. If even after a year the thing hasn't caught on purely from the word of mouth of 6 million consumers saying "GAMEPAD IS FUTURE!!!" then thats that. Same thing with Vita, ostensibly "the perfect handheld". Market doesn't want it, no marketing is going to change that. Things have moved to convergence devices and people are happy with their phones and tablets doing everything.

When people list "new marketing!!" as a potential for WiiU turnaround, they are often just swapping out the word "magic spell" for how much they understand advertising and marketing's purpose. eg: Nintendo just needs new magic spells to get the WiiU selling to consumers!
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
James Sawyer Ford said:
Sony can barely even supply 60K per week for the US right now according to the last NPD, so I certainly don't expect that many shipments for Japan on an ongoing basis.

Hard to really tell what 60K means in the followup week with some stores apparently out of stock. Not suggesting there's blistering demand, but I don't think the drop off is really indicative of anything either way. We'll have to gauge the following weekly sales against stock resupply.
Click to expand...

this is a good point. Bear in mind MC figures are weekly and NPD is monthly. 60k would be 240k per month. If Sony are producing 1m units monthly, would they really be able to provide more than 25% of available stock to Japan?
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Tripon said:
Are you really saying that because the PS3 generation was one of the longest in console history, that shouldn't be taken into account?
Click to expand...
Darius said:
What are you talking about? Most people attributed the bad sales to the system beeing overpriced and that price drops would change its trajectory, that after 8 years it still hasn´t sold 10m units isn´t an achievement, considering it is the only system that got 3rd party support from the get go.
Click to expand...
Back in 2007 when the PS3 was selling pretty bad in Japan, i cant remember that many people said that the PS3 would sell like it ended up selling.

And true, we didnt know how long the last console generation would last before the new consoles arrived, which is a good point to show that looking at the early sales of a system isnt necessarily a good indication on how it will sell in the long run :)
 
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