I agree with so many of your points and I hope by the end of 2023 we can comment on gaf that MS did improve their output after an abysmal 2022 and not by purchasing Activision but with the moves and purchases they were making leading up to this.
So you mean Starfield? A game they got through an acquisition in 2021, and was going to be funded regardless as well as multiplatform at that (as in, multi-console)? It's going to be hard to say how much of Starfield is due to MS's involvement until we actually get the game, but it's been in some form of development since 2016 IIRC. That's a lot of time without MS's direct influence; could end up like a Psychonauts 2 situation.
Forza is just more Forza; they're always at least good, but they're racing games. RedFall, I dunno how much of that was in development before MS's acquisition of Zenimax and such, but maybe that would be the one big game they have coming which can be pointed to as an example of MS improving things over last year, with a game they had some actual involvement in helping scope & develop, rather than just throwing some money out to the dev team. We'll see.
IMO MS's issue hasn't been so much quality, but consistency and relevance to go along with whatever it is they're releasing. They don't have a regular release cadence, and a lot of what they put out just outright lacks mainstream appeal.
I hope there is am amazing 2023 and we can put the shite 2022 down to covid and the world recovering from the pandemic.
What's the world recovering from the pandemic got to do with MS having a mostly busted 2022? They're a massive company with cloud resources that should theoretically make hybrid office/home dev painfully easy, so why have there been so many bottlenecks?
Sony's been dealing with the pandemic as well, still put out quite a few big releases this year (yes they were delayed but at least they came out shortly after the initial release windows given), and had big games come through from 3P publishers. Nintendo's stayed steady in spite of dealing with the pandemic, too. Other publishers still put out some big games this year , so why is the pandemic a persistent excuse for Microsoft?
So, I would say that MS has been making lives to improve their one remaining issue which is games but now it's time for them to prove it without the ABK purchase.
I hope we can all agree that at the end of 2023 MS have turned everything around in the last 5 years.
Unless Starfield is balls-out amazing, and considering the rest of what's set to release in 2023 in terms of 1P games, I doubt it'll be enough for most to say MS's turned "everything" around. But it would be a great start towards remedying some of their weaknesses.
Conversely if Sony can get TLOU Part 2 Factions out and it hits, or some other live-service MP game out and it does very well, then it'll be a strong start towards them remedying one of their biggest oversights (lack of 1P MP games). Though I find it funny Sony is expected to remedy that with self-made games yet MS can seemingly fix their shortcomings by just buying existing developers & publishers, nonetheless it'd be a good start to them needing to rely less on stuff like COD.
Everything else is absolutely top tier. Co sole hardware, OS features, game pass. Now it's time to deliver on the games and they can not be excused if 2023 is not a stellar year of output. They've had long enough.
Maybe these things are top-tier but there are levels to it and the market has spoken with deciding which platforms they buy and at what volumes.
But I agree in the general sentiment: 2023, MS need to have some great 1P AAA games, much better messaging & marketing, more consistent release schedule and provide some long-needed updates on games revealed in 2019 & 2020 before even thinking about releasing CG trailers for yet
more new games.
1) gamepass/multi-game subscription services arent massively reliant on cloud infrastructure, cloud streaming yes but they are slightly different things. One is a payment model and one is a distribution model.
Nah, I would say they are. You still need the server space to host the content, that's also cloud infrastructure. Those games use centralized network services for online play, and those services have to be stored & accessed somewhere on the server end to actually have players talk to each other. That's cloud infrastructure.
Maybe the degree of cloud infrastructure needed varies from service to service, but the more a service has access to, the more it can provide in supporting the frontend (what the gamers have access to) through the beefed-up backend.
2) there is a lot of conjecture there that regulators in theory would need to defend, aka what percentage of the full game revenue would decline cause MS has 'trained the cod user based to not buy games' etc. It feels difficult to argue personally but maybe there are some good economists that figure it out.
I mean, they can turn to current market results to prove their case, honestly. Sure, they would not be able to definitively prove that a game doing only 20% its sales on Xbox vs. PlayStation is due to Xbox gamers being trained to wait for GamePass, but a lot of that type of circumstantial evidence, I have to think, can add up to proving a point that is very difficult to counterargue.
3) I don't think there is going to be any conversation around loss leading especially around GP (no one seems to hinted towards it) , I personally think MS will state the obvious the GP isn't meant to have a great margin because its trying to get users in.
The conversation can pop up though depending on if it's felt any measures MS have taken in order to get users in, have resulted in any practices that could have allowed them to operate the GamePass service at a deficit far beyond what most any other competitor more reliant on revenue & profits from a gaming division would have been able to sustain, due to MS having such an excess in revenue & profits from non-gaming divisions that they can operate on that type of model for a long period of time simply to generate subscribers.
And keep in mind this is MS doing that while simultaneously still operating Xbox on the traditional model where they have to incur production costs on millions of console unit, distribution costs in shipping them, marketing costs in advertising them (which they generally just now do through GamePass), etc. I would think even some of the pricing deals we saw for Series S over November could make for a good argument, considering MS's original stance on making the X & S (out of data suggesting the normal price reduction path for consoles would not be possible), combined with the general economic trend of electronics supplies increasing in price for sourcing, and MS having a console model focused on 3P support and relatively cutting-edge console hardware (i.e systems not sold at big profit margins due to outdated tech specs like Nintendo), similar to Sony.
4) consumers are benefiting concretely and in the short term if CoD goes into ps+. Obviously this may not be the case forever especially if you account for other factors that's harder to quantify.
Consumer benefits only matter so long as the corporation can sustain them while hitting revenue targets to not piss off shareholders. That is, for companies where the revenue in a given sector is actually a paramount reason why shareholders have purchased stocks in the first place.
That's why I said MS's offer for COD into PS+ hurts Sony's business model, not help it, because that could act as a training tool for people to hold off on buying other, smaller games if something as huge as COD is a PS+ offering from the jump. And that would cause a rather sizable defect in Sony's gaming revenue; since Sony rely on gaming as a core pillar for their overall revenue much more than Microsoft ever has, that can create some issues.
It's like saying Nintendo should put Tears of the Kingdom in NSO Day 1. There's no scenario where they'd make enough in sub revenue to make up for the losses from direct sales, and for Nintendo, where gaming is even more critical to their bottom line than Sony, that's just a no-go.
Anyways signing off for the night, look forward to seeing everyone on page 310.
You sure you don't mean page 316?
