The general consensus/impression is that the FTC will file an injunction in the federal court when the completion date draws near.
MS can't close the deal before that anyway, because the regulators across the world (including the FTC) have to approve it first. So it really is up to the FTC. They know when they'll approve it (or not), and when exactly they can file in the Federal court.
It's stretching to 2024, at least, anyway, unless Microsoft makes huge concessions and eliminates regulators' concerns. So lots of time for everything.
If the FTC files any injunction in federal court to block they will lose their case. That's not what their plan is. Their goal is to predictably lose in their Administrative Law Judge case, they appeal it to themselves, arrive at the exact same decision again, and then it goes to an appeals court, where Microsoft will naturally lose because the appeal isn't really about the merits of the case, but more looks at procedural wrongdoings, which there won't be any, so the FTC's decision to block the deal will be affirmed in a federal appeals court, which they always are.
However, that doesn't end it. The FTC won a similar such case against Axon, yet Axon still retains everything in its acquisition to this day, but has taken its fight to the Supreme Court.
The FTC is hoping for the exact same drawn-out process as with Axon. The FTC has been playing that same song and dance with Axon Enterprises since 2018. Their case was finally argued before the Supreme Court November 7th this year.
https://www.consumerfinancemonitor....nal-challenges-to-ftcs-enforcement-authority/
What will actually occur is the Supreme Court will issue a decision in Axon Enterprises vs FTC May or June next year. That case has direct implications for the Microsoft and Activision deal, potentially immediately allowing Microsoft's deal to clear in the most extreme outcome (if Supreme Court decides to punish the FTC for all the cases it has already put into its administrative proceedings instead of immediately filing for a court injunction). And in the least extreme outcome, but an outcome that is still not good for the FTC, Microsoft wins the right to immediately take its case to a federal district court, giving them an opportunity to have a solution that's favorable by 2023 or 2024 the latest. Microsoft might still be allowed to close, or depending on the judge, Microsoft may be ordered to withhold from closing while the case is pending. Either way, Microsoft prefers this route to dealing with the FTC stall tactic with Lina Khan for years.
The FTC wants to basically stall and delay Microsoft and Activision Blizzard well into 2026-2027 as they have done Axon Enterprises since 2018.
There is no scenario in my opinion where the Conservative 6-3 majority rules in favor of the FTC here, especially since doing so would counter the Chief Justice's opinion in a previous decision. The question is how aggressive will the Supreme Court be in ruling against the FTC. I suspect the Supreme Court is getting ready to make a major constitutional change of the structure of the FTC, leaving the FTC with but one avenue to block mergers or transactions of this nature, the same one available to DOJ, taking it to district court via an injunction.
your points are fair and all but
SenjutsuSage
isn't wrong, infact he's right to a fault
Microsoft does grant their studios a lot of freedom but the result is a lack of true cohesion and direction. When there's no true deadline or pressure to get shit done it can result in games taking FOREVER to come out, not to mention that a lot of these studios don't really work with each other the same way Sony studios do (likely as a result of them being acquired on a whim rather than having a relationship with the parent company) so stuff that would take 3 years for say Naughty Dog takes 6 years for a studio like Ninja Theory (and it's also probably why Hellblade 2 is taking as long as it is)
The issue IS the freedom, and while i'd never want them to go back to their kinect dystopian ways of forcing their best fucking studio to work on Kinect games, they have to strike a balance. A balance that's only learned when you've truly interacted with these studios enough to understand their work culture and a balance that helps them be the most efficient and produce the most quality games. That balance is exclusive to organic growth which a lot of MS studios do not have. As a result most of the games they're working on are in development hell and all of their most anticipated projects we aren't going to be seeing for the next 2 or 3 years.
also, tomorrow is my birthday. completely unrelated but i thought i'd mention that.
Organic growth stuff is largely fan fiction. I hope you realize that. We really should stop hearing it by now, but it still comes. You make assumptions about the studio culture and ability to produce when every studio acquired has sung a different tune and has even improved on its games since being acquired. Double Fine with Psychonauts 2. InXile with Wasteland 3, Obsidian has been firing on all cylinders. Playground is killing it so far. Undead Labs has kept improving State of Decay 2, Bethesda hasn't skipped a beat and has been producing at multiple levels. Fallout 76 is in its best state in forever and even gaining new players. Rare is enjoying the most success it has had in its entire existence with Sea of Thieves. Various teams have even grown larger for bigger projects since the acquisition. InXile has a very ambitious project in the making. Coalition has been reliable since inception, so has Turn 10 and 343i. All have consistently delivered great games over the years. 343i's longest ever gap was the first time they had to build a Halo for multiple target specs, including PC. It was also a total re-invention of the Halo Campaign formula and their first move to a free to play live service model for MP. New MP features that were never there before such as academy, training mode/bots etc. Far more ambitious forge compared to years prior with scripting. Santa Monica needed 5 years for God of War 2018 because it was a whole sale re-invention for the God of War formula. 343i took one year more than Santa Monica Studio needed for God of War 2018, a singleplayer title, and did so amidst a global pandemic while making the most ambitious Halo Campaign yet with entirely new gameplay features, and launched it alongside a major multi-player component. Xbox One/S/X + Xbox Series Consoles + PC. 6 years. Whatever features they lacked at launch were more than made up for by all the features that have never been part of Halo in its entire existence before at launch in 2021.
The funny part is this nonsense persists only because Xbox simply didn't have a real budget again till around 2018. 2021 was a massive year for Xbox First Party. How do people square such results with the claim that Xbox first party hasn't delivered at all ever? We will probably hear nonsense like "those games don't count, they were already in development" And yet all studios say Microsoft made their games BETTER.
https://screenrant.com/microsoft-double-fine-psychonauts-2-boss-fights/
The negativity about Microsoft's management of its studios has been fan fiction the whole time. All the studios are just working. Their games release when they're ready, just like it has been for Sony for years with every defense in the book for their studios taking their time.
Microsoft's support has reportedly allowed them to add far more voice acting to the in-game dialog, and ultimately create a better version of the game they originally set out to make with the over $3 million the game earned through its
Fig crowdfunding campaign. "Microsoft has a user research lab, which is going to give us feedback on the UI and what people are experiencing," Fargo says. "And they have their localisation groups and their QA groups… I could go on, but you have to understand that it is allowing us to make a more robust product."
In a recent interview, studio founder Brian Fargo has spoken about Microsoft's purchase of the company, and has made it clear that they've essentially let them do their thing, albeit with the added financial safety net that a major publisher can provide.
Talking to
Gamesradar+, Fargo explained that Microsoft propped the company up with money and then left them to their own devices. "Microsoft basically came in, gave us a tonne of cash, and said go and make the best game that you possibly can," he said. Similarly, game director Tim Campbell says that the buyout "hasn't changed the game (they) are making at all." He acknowledges that it's reasonable for people to expect otherwise, but assures Gamesradar+ that "Microsoft is just helping us do what we do but better, right?"
https://wccftech.com/inxile-microsoft-trusts-us-were-making-wasteland-3-better/
Campbell: I can say on the team level, the development side, we're ecstatic for the partnership with Microsoft, we are absolutely making the game [Wasteland 3] that we want to make and we're making it better than we would have been able to by ourselves.
Fargo: Yeah, I think we're fortunate because Microsoft trusts us. I think that's always a concern when companies get bought, that's what they think. There's a natural sense of 'There goes the company now'. But really, they're like, we trust you. I mean, even when I start talking about what we want to do in the future, beyond that, I start describing in detail and they go 'We trust him'.
We're sharing with all the studios. I mean, we talked to the guys at The Coalition. If we're doing something that involves shooting, we'll pick up the phone and talk to them. If we want to do anything with water, you know, we'll talk to the guys doing Sea of Thieves and go 'Hey, just tell us about your water technology'. So that's what's great. I mean, everybody's like 'Kumbaya', everybody is sharing everything that they're up to, we're in constant communication, and we all want to help each other with our craft.
Anyone can grab a few ex-employees or current employees and find something negative to say. Similar stories have been written about Insomniac, about Naughty Dog. Multiple employees have come and gone from every top studio in the industry, but when someone leaves an Xbox studio it's breaking news like on CNN lol. Most of the supposed troubles inside Microsoft studios has been exaggerated. Too much creative freedom and too much of a hands-off approach while they make games you say? Utter garbage. If too much micro-management is needed then the studio has problems beyond that. For all that has been said about 343i, they still never fail to make a game that plays incredible. I don't think Halo fans care to hear from non-Halo fans who have been saying Halo is dead for years (dead but #10 most played game worldwide on Xbox Series consoles) that they don't want anymore Halo game. Go play what you play and leave us Halo fans to keep enjoying more Master Chief stories.
And why the hell would Hellblade 2 be finished already if they only just became able to make something as big as Hellblade 2 with AAA standards once they were acquired by Microsoft in 2018? It has literally been 4 years now since Microsoft acquired Ninja Theory, and one of those years was massively affected by a global pandemic. Next year is going to be stacked with first party games. Nobody cares about this organic, non-organic nonsense. The games release, people play the games and have fun. The end.
-and put in the word Brand like I have edited into the original post.
