When Microsoft refuses to release sell in numbers for the X1 alone, what else can you do but estimate?I may have missed it, but we actually got hard numbers? Or are you still using your own estimates as definitive?
When Microsoft refuses to release sell in numbers for the X1 alone, what else can you do but estimate?I may have missed it, but we actually got hard numbers? Or are you still using your own estimates as definitive?
I may have missed it, but we actually got hard numbers? Or are you still using your own estimates as definitive?
I may have missed it, but we actually got hard numbers? Or are you still using your own estimates as definitive?
He is taking his own guesses as authoritative.
Very good guesses with a good range.
And yet consistently too generous to the Xbox One.
I think with a little bit of luck, MS will be able to keep the Xbox One ahead of the PS360 for at least next year. 2016 though? Maybe a slim revision could keep it ahead for another year (at least against the 360), but then after that, it'll fall behind.
And yet consistently too generous to the Xbox One.
No offence, ZhugeEX, but I agree with him. Your X1 predictions are often overly optimistic.And yet consistently too generous to the Xbox One.
If there are so many XB1s lying around in inventory, how come every single Wal-Mart in my area is out of XB1's with the Master Chief Collection and does not have the console by itself (only AC Unity Bundles)? Are all of these XB1s in inventories AC Unity bundles? Seems odd to me if they are.
How is that optimistic? Is it really hurting you that the Xbox One is not doing as terrible as you think it is?
LOL, why are you getting so defensive? It's just my opinion.How is that optimistic? Is it really hurting you that the Xbox One is not doing as terrible as you think it is?
How is that optimistic? Is it really hurting you that the Xbox One is not doing as terrible as you think it is?
So when do y'all think MS will start giving X1 ship numbers (solely) rather than 'xbox family'....
X360 has dropped fairly fast, so by the end of the year it's sales may be small enough that it would be pointless to combine them in investor reports...
Thoughts?
He also frequently predicts very optimistic numbers for the X1, so yeah, that's why it hurts himWhat is this? They're discussing numbers, why do you have to get personal?
I don't completely agree with his estimates either, does that mean it somehow pains me that even though I bought an XB1 this year, I somehow hate and despise it? Or does it just mean that I'm not sure I agree with his numbers. Get some perspective.
So when do y'all think MS will start giving X1 ship numbers (solely) rather than 'xbox family'....
X360 has dropped fairly fast, so by the end of the year it's sales may be small enough that it would be pointless to combine them in investor reports...
Thoughts?
Zhuge has an exaggerated sense of how well the Xbox One is selling outside the US/UK. It colors his estimations and projections. It's not that complicated or controversial a thing to say.
He also frequently predicts very optimistic numbers for the X1, so yeah, that's why it hurts him
Well, I guess a few others and myself are very pessimistic then despite having shown our predictions through breakdowns. And my prediction is ~9.75 million for X1 so if that's very pessimistic to you, then you're the one with the problem.Last time I'm posting in this thread.
~11m to ~12m shipped is not optimistic in the slightest. If you are going to go ahead and assume that is somehow optimistic despite the 360 dying very quickly in 2014, then go ahead.
I'm not being optimistic, you are being very pessimistic.
Well, I guess a few others and myself are very pessimistic then despite having shown our predictions through breakdowns. And my prediction is ~9.75 million for X1 so if that's very pessimistic to you, then you're the one with the problem.
Interesting predictions, I am really curious to see how the influx of software this year will affect PS4's sales.I can certainly see X1 selling in more than 20 million cumulative units by the end of CY2015. How many more than 20m remain to be seen. I'm also fairly certain that US and UK will account for the majority of X1 sell through and maybe even shipments.
My prediction for this year is
PS4: More than 37 million cumulative units sold in
XB1: More than 21 million cumulative units sold in
WiU: More than 13 million cumulative units sold in
This would give current gen a cumulative total of 71.0m+ consoles sold in.
Compared to Last gen which had more than 83.5m+ consoles sold in during the same time frame. (Wii at 45m)
I got laughed at in the previous thread for suggesting 21 million units sold in for X1 by the end of 2015 but knowing what we know now I'd say a lot of people would agree with me. Especially when I was able to predict this time last year that we would see 11.7m Xbox One's sold in and we now know that approximately 11.5m-12.0m were sold in. I may revise my PS4 prediction once we get actual sell in data. My prediction for last calender year is below.
I would agree that 21M is a bit optimistic, but not impossible.No offence, ZhugeEX, but I agree with him. Your X1 predictions are often overly optimistic.
Sold through of course. Only an idiot or fanboy would put 9.75 million as sold in. Sold in would be closer to ~11.5 millionSold in or sold through?
Can you tell me what you think sold in figure is with a break down?
Sold in would be closer to ~11.5 million
Well, your sold in figure is closer to 12 million, isn't it? That's slightly too high but still possible. I was referring to your sold through numbers as optimistic. I respect your opinion if you think it's >10 million but like I said I'd put it around ~9.75 millionSo why are you saying I'm being optimistic when you have the exact same prediction as me for sold in......
I don't get it? Why is everyone suddenly having a go at me for sold in figures yet when I ask what you think you think the same as me.
I'd like to see this brad guy post what he think sold in figures for X1 are.
Last time I'm posting in this thread.
~11m to ~12m shipped is not optimistic in the slightest. If you are going to go ahead and assume that is somehow optimistic despite the 360 dying very quickly in 2014, then go ahead.
I'm not being optimistic, you are being very pessimistic.
Well, your sold in figure is closer to 12 million, isn't it? That's slightly too high but still possible. I was referring to your sold through numbers as optimistic. I respect your opinion if you think it's >10 million but like I said I'd put it around ~9.75 million
Yeah, I know. I've been following this thread all week. And I witnessed the war between you, Serversurfer and Death too. And I tried to stop it. XDNope. I've always said between 11.5m-12.0m. I've said it could be close to 12.0m (as in higher than 11.75m) but I've always maintained that the actual figure will be in between those two numbers.
The way I came to this figure is by taking 10m as a minimum sold in figure (from MS) as well as calculating X360 sales based on USA NPD sell through, estimated YOY drops and known trends for X1 and X360 in their various quarters.
Yeah, I know. I've been following this thread all week. And I witnessed the war between you, Serversurfer and Death too. And I tried to stop it. XD
In all seriousness, how many X1's do you think are lying around in warehouses WW?
12 million is a plausible possibility with a probability that may or may not be low, but because it's the high end of the scale (where we say the scale is 10-12 million or something like that) we would call that prediction "optimistic". And if someone chose a 9.5-10 million number, we'd call that prediction "pessimistic". Neither have inherently negative connotations, they just represent the full range of the scale.
Yeah, I know. I've been following this thread all week. And I witnessed the war between you, Serversurfer and Death too. And I tried to stop it. XD
In all seriousness, how many X1's do you think are lying around in warehouses WW?
Yep, I agree that anyone even suggesting 9 million or less sold through are delusional. Anyway, I predict ~1.5-2 million sitting in warehouses WW. But then again, when I said this, The Shogun called it out and he hasn't shown his face since then.I added a bit to my post above to clarify some stuff.
In all honesty, I have absolutely no idea how many X1's are in channel and I'd be taking a complete guess If I was to say a number. There really isn't enough actual data for me to even take a stab in the dark at this.
What I will say is that MS shipped a lot more this quarter than I expected and I'd imagine that there are a number in channel. I think it's also one of the reasons why MS have kept the price drop, in order to sell through their stock quicker in order to ship more units.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than thatI wouldn't think anymore than 1.5m...
I may be wrong, but don't retailers make the orders for more units based on how they are selling at their location?
I mean, can MS just keep sending a retailer more and more units when they don't need anymore??
So when do y'all think MS will start giving X1 ship numbers (solely) rather than 'xbox family'....
X360 has dropped fairly fast, so by the end of the year it's sales may be small enough that it would be pointless to combine them in investor reports...
Thoughts?
So this is sold through? Seems reasonable but I think the X1 would be closer to 18 million. PS4 would hit 38 million if Sony dropped the price to $299My prediction for end of 2015 is this.
PS4: 35 to 40 million (40 million if there is a price cut)
Xbox: 17 million (sold to consumers is 10ish million is my guess, so another 6 million for the rest of the year)
I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than that
Whilst I fully understand what you're saying and appreciate the explanation, we really do have enough information regarding shipped data in order to say that Xbox One cannot have shipped less than 11 million units as a minimum. If it does ship less than 11 million units then it means that the Xbox 360 sold in more than 5m units worldwide which is very very unlikely as it we know USA sold through ~1.4m and X360 shipments decreased heavily YOY from 7m. A ~40% drop is likely based on historical data.
Maybe....Maybe not.
That's why I'm asking about who has control over shipments (The retailer, or Microsoft).
If the retailer has control, then more that 1.5M units wouldn't make much sense, but if MS has the ability to just ship however much they want to retailers, then it could be anything...
We have enough information to make educated guesses which may be optimistic, pessimistic or neither. 11 million shipped is a guesstimate that is probably right on the 'neither' part of the scale, neither particularly optimistic or pessimistic.
12 million is very much on the optimistic end.
Indeed. People should keep in mind: 19.5 million Xbox consoles were shipped since XB1 introduction
Of those 19.5m I'd wager 6m are X360 at most, really can't see X360 being higher than that.
no, not really, if XB1 shipments go down 360 shipments must go up, and at a certain point 360 levels are just unreasonable (and funnily enough, everyone always dodges this when asked)
we are talking about shipped here after all
So this is sold through? Seems reasonable but I think the X1 would be closer to 18 million. PS4 would hit 38 million if Sony dropped the price to $299
Yeah, I know. I've been following this thread all week. And I witnessed the war between you, Serversurfer and Death too. And I tried to stop it. XD
In all seriousness, how many X1's do you think are lying around in warehouses WW?
Lol, problem nobody knows what numbers he was citing in that conference call and people are assuming he meant actual shipments . There is no conclusive evidence that suggest that they actually shipped those. He was, more than likely, basing his statement off of the same projections used for the PR draft. He couldn't have been known numbers for Nov because the call took place on Dec. 3rd and NPD released Dec. 14thZhugeEX said:Hard numbers we have is 5.1m as of Q1 CY2014 and approaching 10m as of Nov 2014 with 10m confirmed shipped by Satya (Microsoft CEO) at the beginning of December 2014.
Lol, problem nobody knows what numbers he was citing in that conference call and people are assuming he meant actual shipments . There is no conclusive evidence that suggest that they actually shipped those. He was, more than likely, basing his statement off of the same projections used for the PR draft. He couldn't have been known numbers for Nov because the call took place on Dec. 3rd and NPD released Dec. 14th
Even your "hard data" is mere speculation.
no, not really, if XB1 shipments go down 360 shipments must go up, and at a certain point 360 levels are just unreasonable (and funnily enough, everyone always dodges this when asked)
we are talking about shipped here after all
answer this directly: do you think the Xbox 360 shipped 5 million units this CY?
It doesn't matter what my prediction is, that has nothing to do with the point I was making. People keep acting like that calling something an "optimistic prediction" is an inherently negative phrase,but I want to make it perfectly clear that you can have a truly legitimate prediction that is still optimistic in nature.
I do not have to predict anything, nor did I mention anything related to an actual prediction, to cause such a use of information. My point does not require it.
You arrived at that number without a lot of things. Apparently trends, reports, history of the eastern markets, and adoption rate just to name a few.NPD = Sell through
NPD has nothing to do with how many units Microsoft shipped.
Also I'm not using the 10m number as a definite. As you can see I've actually arrived to 11.5m-12.0m without even needing to fully consider 10m shipped. See my post above.