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[ToxicAdam]

I knew genetic engineering of our food would come back to bite us in the ass. First its chimera apples, next its killer tomatoes. I've seen movies about it.

 

[Sqrt_minus_one]

This still should not take away from the fact that if you view the entire data set the most likely distributtion would be a normal one with the mean being the 1 million to one probability.

 

[Busaiku]

The green looks bigger than the red.

 

[Zero Hero]

One drop rule.

 

[adamsappel]

That's a cool apple, the seeds from that apple won't better the odds of that mutation happening again?

Apple seeds aren't "pure," they are usually hybrids (original tree pollinated from a different variety). Consistent varieties are grown/cloned from cuttings. You could eventually create a half-and-half apple, but you would have to pollinate a bajillion generations of trees to get it to happen as a matter of course.

 

[Flunkie]

Wasn't sure what to expect when I entered, but I have to say that this is a million times more awesome than anything I could have imagined.

.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

What this is an example of is the Gambler's Fallacy



Each individual apple in an orchard might have a million to one chance (or whatever the actual odds are) of this specific mutation, but it doesn't get more likely over a larger number of apples because each apple is itself an individual opportunity and doesn't affect other apples.

No, it isn't an example of the Gambler's Fallacy. It would be if we had 999,999 normal apples and RubixQube claimed there was an excellent chance that the next one would be red-and-green.

But he's not. He's saying that, given a million apples in an orchard, it seems likely that one of them would be red-and-green.

 

[GDGF]

I was going to post "looks delicious" but that's been done twice already.

 

[Ferrio]

We still have a ways to go...

 

[Timo]

That doesn't look natural at all. Cool though.

 

[ALeperMessiah]

Million to one, huh.....



So you're telling me there's a chance.

 

[Rewrite]

Fucking awesome.

 

[MomoPufflet]

"This is known as a chimera where one of the first two cells has developed differently giving rise to one half of the apple being different," he said.

Chimera apple! Sounds like an RPG item. Or something.

 

[POWERSPHERE]

This will be the Icon for the new revolution where mutants rise up and destroy us finally. We will look back on this day in our dark bunkers huddled under the burning flesh of the earth remembering simpler times.

It's been real, dudes.

 

[quilter46761]

What this is an example of is the Gambler's Fallacy



Each individual apple in an orchard might have a million to one chance (or whatever the actual odds are) of this specific mutation, but it doesn't get more likely over a larger number of apples because each apple is itself an individual opportunity and doesn't affect other apples.

Err...

To take coins as an example, wouldn't it be that, over the course of ten coin flips, the odds of having 10 heads come up are (1/2)^10? Yes, the specific set of ten coin flips as heads is exactly as likely as any other permutation of heads and tails, but there are a significantly larger number of situations where five heads and five tails will come up than any other split.

I think, with apples, if the chance was actually one in one million, the odds of not getting one apple like this would be (999,999/1,000,000)^1,000,000 or 0.367879257 - a significant value, but when the total production of apples in the world exceeds [url="http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/Hort_Circular/2003/3-7-03%20Web%20Art.%20Updates/World%20Apple%20Situation%202002-03.pdf]45 million metric tons[/url], it becomes almost inevitable that this apple will exist, if the odds are only a million to one against.

 

[xs_mini_neo]

Seems fake...but whatever. I want to see a human with this mutation. It would be awesome.

 

[Shorty]

Seems fake...but whatever. I want to see a human with this mutation. It would be awesome.

It's called Vitiligo and it's not awesome.

 

[YYZ]

Apple seeds aren't "pure," they are usually hybrids (original tree pollinated from a different variety). Consistent varieties are grown/cloned from cuttings. You could eventually create a half-and-half apple, but you would have to pollinate a bajillion generations of trees to get it to happen as a matter of course.

I would still try, those things would sell like crazy.

 

[xs_mini_neo]

It's called Vitiligo and it's not awesome.

I'm talking an even split like this apple...and enjoying the power of kidding around.

 

[Hootie]

Probably tastes so good.

 

[The Faceless Master]

some woman had her kids taken for her when their dna didn't match hers. Social services thought she'd kidnapped them. Turns out she was a chimera. I saw a tv programme on it.

i saw that on the soaps!

 

[Cyan]

What this is an example of is the Gambler's Fallacy



Each individual apple in an orchard might have a million to one chance (or whatever the actual odds are) of this specific mutation, but it doesn't get more likely over a larger number of apples because each apple is itself an individual opportunity and doesn't affect other apples.

It's not a fallacy. Rubx is talking about the Law of Large Numbers.

If there's a million-to-one chance of an apple like this, then in an orchard with one million apples, the EV for number of chimera apples is one (assuming independence). That's what I think he was trying to say.