This is the way I see it.
If Arrieta wins 20+ and has a sub 2 era while Greinke does not hit 20 wins then Arrieta is going to get serious consideration from voters. I think there is enough of them out there that won't be able to say no to those flashy numbers.
If Grienke hits 20 wins and has a better ERA than Arrieta then he gets the votes.
Kershaw is better than both and should win.
If Arrieta wins 20+ and has a sub 2 era while Greinke does not hit 20 wins then Arrieta is going to get serious consideration from voters. I think there is enough of them out there that won't be able to say no to those flashy numbers.
If Grienke hits 20 wins and has a better ERA than Arrieta then he gets the votes.
Kershaw is better than both and should win.