Edwin Encarnacion got an expensive lesson this off-season in the way baseball executives are rapidly devaluing home-run hitting sluggers.
Shortly after the World Series, the Toronto Blue Jays offered Encarnacion a four-year contract worth about $80 million, hoping to retain a player who has averaged 39 home runs over the past five seasons.
Encarnacion declined, his representatives confident that he would receive nine figures from a deep-pocketed franchise like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
That never materialized. In January, Encarnacion accepted a three-year deal from the Cleveland Indians with just $60 million guaranteed, well below what industry analysts projected. A team official said that while developing their initial off-season plan, the Indians quickly dismissed Encarnacion as a target with hardly any discussion, never thinking he would fall into their price range.
Encarnacion isnt the only power hitter in camp this spring who earned significantly less in free agency than expected.
Chris Carter, who shared the National League-lead with 41 homers last season, considered going to Japan before inking a one-year, $3.5 million pact with the New York Yankees. After hitting 20 homers last season, Adam Lind signed for $1.5 million with the Washington Nationals, down from the $8 million he made in 2016. Ryan Howard and Pedro Alvarez, who in 2016 bashed 25 and 22 home runs, respectively, remain unemployed.
These players are the latest victims of baseballs information age, which continues to rapidly redefine how to judge talent. Once the sports most expensive commodity, power production alone is no longer enough to ensure big money.
Chris Carter, who hit 41 homers last season for the Milwaukee Brewers, signed a one-year, $3.5 million pact with the New York Yankees this winter. Chris Carter, who hit 41 homers last season for the Milwaukee Brewers, signed a one-year, $3.5 million pact with the New York Yankees this winter. PHOTO: GENE J. PUSKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS As an industry weve disproportionately rewarded power, Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro said. Now, teams are getting a better picture of the complete player. Youre looking at it more holistically as to, How does he help you win?
Advances in how to empirically evaluate subtler aspects of the game like defense and baserunning, coupled with a more sophisticated understanding of how to quantify their effect on wins, have emphasized versatile, multidimensional players above all.
After simmering for the last couple of years, this principle came to a head this year, resulting in one of the strangest winters in recent memory.
Youre dealing with a generation of teams who probably dont value the home run quite as much as the generations before it may have, Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said.
No case raised more eyebrows than Carters. Despite his prodigious home-run output, the Milwaukee Brewers declined to tender Carter a contract for 2017, letting him walk two years before he otherwise wouldve reached free agency.
As an industry weve disproportionately rewarded power Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro Their rationale, general manager David Stearns said, was simple: In the Brewers estimation, Carter would make substantially more through the arbitration processprobably about $8 millionthan he would on the open market.
That proved accurateand it stunned Carter.
The whole non-tender thing wasnt even a thought in my mind, Carter said. I thought it was impossible for that to happen.
At that price point, the Brewers not long ago might have overlooked Carters flaws. Without the tools available to show otherwise, its not unreasonable to think his home runs would justify his 206 strikeouts, .222 batting average and subpar defense at first base.
Not anymore. The Brewers replaced Carter by agreeing to a three-year, $16 million contract with Eric Thames, a 30-year-old who spent the last three seasons playing in South Korea. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce for less than one season of Encarnacions deal.
There has been a fundamental shift in the game in how people value players, Shapiro said. There will continue to be, especially as the metrics get better and better at defining defense and some of the other aspects of players games.
This isnt to say that home runs arent important. Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore said that power production is huge and that he tried to build our team with a little more emphasis on that this year. This winter, the Royals signed Brandon Moss, who hit 28 home runs last season, to a two-year, $12 million contract. They also traded for Jorge Soler.
The Kansas City Royals signed Brandon Moss, who hit 28 home runs last season, to a two-year, $12 million contract The Kansas City Royals signed Brandon Moss, who hit 28 home runs last season, to a two-year, $12 million contract PHOTO: JOHN SLEEZER/ZUMA PRESS But Kansas Citys off-season approach only highlights an undeniable truth: Teams increasingly believe that power is easier to obtain than it has been in years. Thats why it was available to the Royals, a team looking to shed payroll.
The 2016 season saw a home-run explosion of historic proportions. Teams across the league hit 5,610 homers, the second-most ever. A record 111 players hit at least 20 home runs, up from 64 in 2015.
In other words, why pay for something thats as abundant in the baseball world as bubble gum and sunflower seeds? In fact, Carter said he had better financial opportunities overseas than he did in the U.S.
Its easier to find now, Carter said. If you have 25 guys on the market that hit 20-plus, your values not as high.
Not everyone is convinced that the winter of 2016 represents a seismic shift. Instead, some argue it was a product of the specific makeup of this years free agent class. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman pointed to the bounty of first basemen/designated hitters available and attributed the depressed market to the fact that the chessboard was set up with more participants than there were chairs.
That worked to the Yankees benefit. After signing closer Aroldis Chapman and outfielder Matt Holliday, Cashman had exhausted his winter budget. But when it became clear that talent was available on the cheap, owner Hal Steinbrenner consented to outlay another $4 million. Cashman didnt even need that much to land Carter.
The Yankees deal with Carter resonated around the league. Shapiro said Carter was clearly a value and was worth more than what he got paid. It exemplified a market that perhaps de-emphasized home runs a little too much.
Because in baseball, one thing will remain true: Theres no more efficient way to score runs than hitting the ball over the fence. Maybe next winter, that skill will again be rewarded.
At some point, markets will overcorrect, Stearns said. If you can identify that before everyone else, youre going to have a competitive advantage.