Yep, we can all do the collective told-ya-so after we've buried the fool.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Mrs. Clinton, your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train...
- Thread starter benjipwns
- Start date
- Status
Yep, we can all do the collective told-ya-so after we've buried the fool.
Oh thats what "N rigging" means.
Fwiw, landslide buzz tends to depress the turnout for the losing candidate way more than for the winning one.
That's interesting, do you know any real-life examples of this happening?
FlammableD
Banned
When I said that I got shouted down
Wowfunhappy
Member
Now the question is can the democrats manage to take the house.
PlayALLtheGames
Banned
She'll get another bump from the debates.
Her campaign is not being run by idiots like Trump's, so we can stop saying "They can't be complacent!" Her people know what the fuck they're doing
Her campaign is not being run by idiots like Trump's, so we can stop saying "They can't be complacent!" Her people know what the fuck they're doing
benjipwns
Banned
To be fair, it may just be gibberish. The rest of their comments aren't exactly coherent.
They can't get lazy or complacent, but I'm also getting tired of the constant stoking of fears just to win monthly fundraising contests and headlines. Both the frequency and tone of the outreach from her campaign last month felt out of step with reality. Would prefer they focus on Hillary's vision and plans in their fundraising efforts, like the recent statements on prescription drug pricing.
Fleet_of_Foot
Member
benjipwns
Banned
I take it this is your first cycle receiving fundraising e-mails from the Democratic Party.
I always unsubscribe before long. Wanted to stay in the loop this election season but they're doing all they can to push me away again.
gutterboy44
Member
I refuse to accept that she is winning, ahead, or guaranteed any state until the actual voting is done. Trump is far too great a threat to even count a single chicken now, let alone all 270 of them. I go by what /r/the_donald says are the polls because that is the reality I want motivating me to vote, get others to vote and contribute time and money to assure a HRC win. Trump is ahead in all polls from now until November. That is the only thing democratic voters should be telling themselves. Let her campaign staff worry about battleground states and paths to 270. Everyone is in a battleground state with this election. Every vote matters, because it isn't just a vote for Trump or Clinton, it is a declaration of what path we as a nation want to go down. The fallout of a Trump presidency would be beyond radioactive.
Bandwagon Effect. Polls often become self-fulfilling prophecy because they influence perception of the candidates, and people are more likely to support an expected winner (and as a corollary, less likely to support an expected loser).
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2132194?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Wafflecakes
Member
A narrowing of the polls is not this:
There is a difference between polling fluctuations and a "downward spiral".
SenorArdilla
Member
"The only way Clinton wins at all is if Obama rigs the election ballots."
"N rigging elections again."
Who is this mysterious "N" and how is this person rigging elections again?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Being confident in models/trends/path to victory/probability in victory does not mean one is complacent.
This notion that because some of us are confident in a Clinton victory, and even a Clinton "landslide" does not mean "oh man these guys are getting cocky and letting their guard down!"
If Clinton's campaign is prepping for a landslide, then the possiblity of a landslide is extremely real. It is being ran by the same people who ran Obama's campaign. Back in 2012, whatever internal polling they had would be automatically get knocked down by around 2 points so that they didn't hype themselves up on their own hopium.
These people are smart, they know what's going on, they know far more than we do. The fact that they are contacting Trump's ghost writer, getting teams of psychologists to create a profile of Trump speaks volumes to how prepped they are going into the home stretch of this campaign.
benjipwns
Banned
gutterboy44
Member
No I agree that her and her staff are welcome to crunch any numbers they want, be confident anywhere on the board and prep for a landslide. However, with democrats already being a notoriously complacent voting group, millennials checking out after Bernie, the threat of record turnout on the GOP side and average or below average turnout on the Dem side is a very real possibility. People seeing that she is guaranteed to win, can be the difference between people deciding to go wait 4 hours in line to vote, missing work, or just say.. eh fuck it she has it in the bag. American voters, especially Dems, will take any excuse they can get to not bother voting. I know it seems contradictory, but positive news of Clinton now, is probably going to cost her votes. The enemy needs to be at the gate to motivate Dems.
The polls are polls of likely voters, fwiw. If the majority of people polled are repeatedly saying they would support Clinton, it's a good bet they're gonna do it in November.
DragonSworne
Banned
Hopefully Clinton wins by us a large margin that she has so much political capital that she can push through thinks like single payer healthcare, free college, paid maternity/paternity leave, and $15 minimum wage.
Politico comments are always "hilarious"
Man Called Aerodynamics
Member
Vigilant optimism, people. Vigilant optimism. 
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Really disappointed in these hubris articles. Odds are politico made up half this shit too, Democrats could be up 20 the night before the election and they still worry.
gutterboy44
Member
When it comes to even the slimmest chance of a Trump presidency, I won't take any bet, no matter the odds. I will be motivated that Trump is a single vote away from winning until November. Like I said in first post, it isn't just about getting Clinton the required EC votes, every vote, if she does win, can show a sign of a turn towards unification. I want a landslide, I want record popular vote numbers. I want Trump to be absolutely humiliated. I just don't want to accept that we are there yet with two months to go. The only thing that has been predictable this election is expect the unexpected. We have the two most despised candidates in US history against each other. It is anyones to lose. I don't say this as a means to invalidate the very real polling numbers. I was pretty clear upfront that this is a personal motivating factor and I do fear Dems (mostly whites) are complacent as fuck when it comes to actually showing up to vote.
Man Called Aerodynamics
Member
President Romney agrees with you
Who the fuck is being complacent on here? It's the most annoying non issue that people consistently bring up.
Based on all recent state polling, she's comfortably at about 273 EVs right now and that's reality. It's okay to recognize and it signals how much a longshot Trump is. Romney/McCain had a better chances and they got trounced.
Based on all recent state polling, she's comfortably at about 273 EVs right now and that's reality. It's okay to recognize and it signals how much a longshot Trump is. Romney/McCain had a better chances and they got trounced.
teruterubozu
Member
I'll take the annoying. It's better to err on the side of caution.
Angelus Errare
Banned
By burying your head in the sand and ignoring the reality on the ground?
It's possible to acknowledge she's currently running ahead and work your ass off to elect her. And that's the advice everyone freaking out should take. Go volunteer for the campaign. In many cases, the ground game/GOTV will determine the winner, not speeches or debates.
Yep. Had this argument yesterday... People are convinced (I have no idea why) that he has a ceiling- Yet, this ceiling has been broken at least twice already.
Again, Hillary is another major scandal away from taking a huge hit. This shit is far from wrapped up, and despite the fact that Trump has basically done nothing right in the last 3 weeks, he's still gaining support.
teruterubozu
Member
Thanks for the lecture/shaming.
Nope, They would have to win 90% of contested races per that article. Just not happening with the gerrymandering.
A lot of the confidence comes from the electoral map. What paths to victory does Trump actually have?
Very few.
And I still think she is going to win handily, I just hate the 'but his ceiling!' argument when he's continously exceeded predictions from gaffers and pundits alike.
Ultimately, national polling doesn't mean a whole lot, so luckily it won't matter. If she starts slipping in key states I'll start getting concerned.
FantasticMrFoxdie
Mumber
would be hilarious if it's the biggest landslide in POTUS history
Well, unless she wins all 50 states that's impossible.
So I'm going to file this under 'not a chance in hell'.
I'd say Trump consistently defied predictions...in the primary. In the general he's been underperforming badly. I mean, a poster showed data from The Upshot showing a downward trend for Clinton and an upward one for Trump. Okay, fair. But that same site still puts Clinton's chances of winning at 87%. Her downward trend is coming from a range of 90% and above...that's awful for Trump, and explains the confidence seeping out of the campaign.
Right now Clinton is competitive in Georgia. GEORGIA.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
Hillary is the futuristic Delorean in the Wild West getting pushed by the raging behemoth of a steam engine that's gonna crash and explode off a bridge at the end of the election cycle.
Great Scott!
It's amazing how many people discussing electoral landslides don't realize how lopsided some past elections have been, even if we restrict it to the post-WW2 era.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The thing about wave elections is they put seats on the map that people assumed were safe, often in places you wouldn't think of.
If a genuine wave did build, it would mean Democrats are running competitively in states and districts the GOP isn't used to defending, and a few marginal districts slip through their fingers.
I don't think Democrats will win the House, but I would like to see the national party make it a top priority anyway. Presidency and Senate both look likely for Democrats, might as well go for broke and give Clinton two years where she can actually do something.
And Arizona! The last two polls had her down just 2 and 4. The latter being a Breitbart poll.
VaultBoy101
Member
Don't get cocky, kids.
I'm not trying to lecture or shame you at all. I want to beat Trump as much as everyone else here and would love for her to win by as much as possible.
Things have tightened a bit, because they always do in campaigns like this. He's gained a nominal amount and she's lost some ground to third parties.
As things stand now,
That's her floor.
And to win, he needs to recapture a place like PA which isn't happening.
Anyway, once next Tuesday hits, the HRC campaign better be ready to get off their ass that they've been sitting on for August and go hard AF for the next ten weeks.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked