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Mrs. Clinton, your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train...

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M

Maxim726X

Member
Eidan said:
I'd say Trump consistently defied predictions...in the primary. In the general he's been underperforming badly. I mean, a poster showed data from The Upshot showing a downward trend for Clinton and an upward one for Trump. Okay, fair. But that same site still puts Clinton's chances of winning at 87%. Her downward trend is coming from a range of 90% and above...that's awful for Trump, and explains the confidence seeping out of the campaign.

Right now Clinton is competitive in Georgia. GEORGIA.
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Look, I get all that. She's making states that haven't been competitive in years winnable. That's a testament to how incompetent Trump is.

EVEN with all of what makes him such a shitty candidate, there was a time after the FBI conference and the RNC where he was polling well above expectations. Yes, I know that post-convention numbers normally rise, but either he has a ceiling or he doesn't. It's been proven already that all it takes is the perfect storm of bad Clinton news and Donald just shutting the fuck up for five days to start swinging momentum in the opposite direction.

Just stay the course, I don't think that anything is in the bag. Still have a ways to go.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
That quote about 'wrong direction/right direction' is always so annoying. Those numbers probably includes Democrats/liberals who feels that the country is going in the wrong direction because the Republicans are obstructing. It's a useless metric.

The same can be said of the whole 'Democrats might stay home' narrative. That's not how it works. The losing side will have more people staying home because of demoralization > complacency. Again, it's another useless metric/narrative that just has to be included because of media whataboutism. I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch but those two narratives need to died in a dumpster fire.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
shamanick said:
You really think that n rigging is an obscure allusion to a racial slur and not a typo? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me.
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There is nothing obscure about the allusion. It isn't a typo and it isn't a stretch. I say this as someone who grew up in a small town in Texas. "N rigging" is something my 1st grade teacher would say.
 
S

SyNapSe

Member
Aren't there a huge percent of people who don't really tune in much at all until the debates?
Although, given the primary turnouts, etc. it might be quite a bit lower than historical numbers.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Par Score said:
Acknowledging reality is not doing victory laps. As things stand today, based on the best information available, Clinton looks like she's walking it.

Can things change? Sure.
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Adding onto this:

Is it more likely that things will change in a way that will do anything other than reinforce the "landslide" likelihood, given Trump's propensity to commit a major gaffe about once a month and given that Clinton really hasn't had anything major all year aside from Comey's press conference two months ago?

Is it more likely that Trump will finally have a sustained breakthrough where he consistently tops 42% in the polls, given that the only time he managed that at all was with a post-convention bounce and the aforementioned press conference, neither of which he'll get in the next two months (let alone both)?

Is it more likely that everything we've observed thus far about this election will suddenly swing around on its head if we don't panic hard enough?

Nope.
 
J

Jonm1010

Banned
Brinbe said:
I'm not trying to lecture or shame you at all. I want to beat Trump as much as everyone else here and would love for her to win by as much as possible.

Things have tightened a bit, because they always do in campaigns like this. He's gained a nominal amount and she's lost some ground to third parties.

As things stand now,



And to win, he needs to recapture a place like PA which isn't happening.

Anyway, once next Tuesday hits, the HRC campaign better be ready to get off their ass that they've been sitting on for August and go hard AF for the next ten weeks.
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They have been off their ass lol. They are killing Trump in the ground game.

Clinton just isn't in the news cycle because Trump's idiocy is dominating everything and when a person is beating themselves, the best thing to do is just get out of their way and let them do it.
 
F

FelixOrion

Poet Centuriate
Jonm1010 said:
They have been off their ass lol. They are killing Trump in the ground game.

Clinton just isn't in the news cycle because Trump's idiocy is dominating everything and when a person is beating themselves, the best thing to do is just get out of their way and let them do it.
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Hillary playing the "Please proceed, Governor." card all day unspoken
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
also, unfortunately the press doesn't seem to be interested in covering Clinton if it's not in the context of a "same thing both sides" false equivocation (which is literally how they reacted to her alt-right speech in spite of the fact that she brought several easily confirmed sources to the table while Trump was vaguely bloviating about her being a "bigot")
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
This is pretty clear looking at what both Clinton and Trump/RNC are doing and how they're acting. Both of their internals are probably showing the same state of the race, which hasn't really fluctuated.

The annoying thing about this is this article is that the DNC still believes that Ted Strickland has a shot and won't cut their losses and invest in Deborah Ross in NC, who is continuing to out raise Richard Burr yet is getting almost no national support.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
BTW, we have 66 days til election day. In reality, it is probably closer to 60 days with labor day coming up and with Hurricane Hermine sucking up all the news cycle. Anything from now til the debates will just be noise.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Jonm1010 said:
They have been off their ass lol. They are killing Trump in the ground game.
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This is something that academics are going to love being able to analyze after the election is done and the data is available to dissect: we have an election where one side's modern apparatus - GOTV, data, voter targeting, messaging, etc - is as behemoth and modern as can be. On the other side? A pitiful shoestring operation, if anything.

In the past, the general belief has been that a good organizational advantage can be worth a point or two in each swing state. But what happens when one side is essentially forfeiting that tactic on the playing field? We might get to find out.

In some moments of public introspection, Hillary has said that she's a wonk and that she's not as politically gifted as some of her allies. If she wins over her flashier, attention-grabbing opponent in part due to her team executing a studious, wonkish organizational strategy.. it'd be quite appropriate.
 
N

NikonShots

Banned
Media will put focus on what the FBI just released, I expect this run away train to cautiously hit the brakes soon, and pick up speed after this runs its course.
 
DietRob

DietRob

i've been begging for over 5 years.
I would love nothing more than seeing Trump be absolutely buried on election night. Seeing him win only 1 or 2 states would make this entire past year worth it.
 
N

Neoweee

Member
DietRob said:
I would love nothing more than seeing Trump be absolutely buried on election night. Seeing him win only 1 or 2 states would make this entire past year worth it.
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Well, there is a 100% chance of that not happening, so you can stop dreaming.

NikonShots said:
Media will put focus on what the FBI just released, I expect this run away train to cautiously hit the brakes soon, and pick up speed after this runs its course.
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It's already hit the breaks a bit. Things have tightened by a few points over the last several weeks.
 
J

Jonm1010

Banned
Neoweee said:
Well, there is a 100% chance of that not happening, so you can stop dreaming.



It's already hit the breaks a bit. Things have tightened by a few points over the last several weeks.
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Which historically is expected. Things tend to tighten closer to the debates. However if Trump doesn't blow everyones socks off and look competent, if not win outright, I think it will basically be a wrap. The polls will favor the winner and if it is Hillary it could get ugly real fast. Even uglier then right now.
 
A

AngmarsKing701

Member
This jumped out at me:
Clinton officials are also worried about projecting too much confidence when 64 percent of voters think the country is moving in the wrong direction and the candidate is intensely disliked; projecting a commanding position could negatively affect Democratic turnout needed to guarantee a win
Click to expand...
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
While I can see their point, it's not a good thing to say. It might make more trump supporters vote when the election day comes and make Clinton voters less likely to vote. Trump should be seen as a threat for maximum electoral turnover and maximum chance of a landslide.
 
4

4Tran

Member
Theonik said:
While I can see their point, it's not a good thing to say. It might make more trump supporters vote when the election day comes and make Clinton voters less likely to vote. Trump should be seen as a threat for maximum electoral turnover and maximum chance of a landslide.
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While it might make sense that people who are certain that their preferred candidate will win are more likely to skip voting on election day, the data for this kind of thing say the very opposite. It says that people like supporting a winner and that people who think that their candidate doesn't have a shot are the ones likely to stay home. Moreover, Clinton is going to have a massive GOTV campaign whereas the Trump campaign is barely visible on this front. Obviously, everyone should still go out and vote, but turn out shouldn't be a problem for the Democrats this cycle.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
4Tran said:
While it might make sense that people who are certain that their preferred candidate will win are more likely to skip voting on election day, the data for this kind of thing say the very opposite. It says that people like supporting a winner and that people who think that their candidate doesn't have a shot are the ones likely to stay home. Moreover, Clinton is going to have a massive GOTV campaign whereas the Trump campaign is barely visible on this front. Obviously, everyone should still go out and vote, but turn out shouldn't be a problem for the Democrats this cycle.
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It's a balance, if your candidate is certain to win that affects turnout, if they are certain to lose it similar. You want it to seem like it might be a close race so people feel empowered to vote, so that you can will win but only if people support you
 
B

Blueliner

Banned
AngmarsKing701 said:
This jumped out at me:
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That stat has jumped out at me since the beginning of this whole shitshow. With so many people thinking the country is going in the wrong direction, why would people vote for someone who literally wants to carry on a very similar direction as the current administration? Then the masterpiece that is Trump comes along and skews everything, he's hated almost as much as the candidate he's going against, at least by the internet. It will definitely be an interesting election day.

My question is, how many people are voting for Trump who aren't being vocal about it or making there voting presence known on the internet.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Blueliner said:
That stat has jumped out at me since the beginning of this whole shitshow. With so many people thinking the country is going in the wrong direction, why would people vote for someone who literally wants to carry on a very similar direction as the current administration? Then the masterpiece that is Trump comes along and skews everything, he's hated almost as much as the candidate he's going against, at least by the internet. It will definitely be an interesting election day.
Click to expand...

Depends why people think the country is going the wrong direction. Maybe you blame the GOP congress for the current situation.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
amazing that trump is so terrible that someone as unlikable as hilary clinton will probably have one of the most massive landslide wins ever (if this holds true).

I don't know how to feel about it. Other than being happy that Trump doesn't get to be important.
 
N

Neoweee

Member
excelsiorlef said:
Brexit was never projected a run away stay win....
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Yup. People created this giant narrative of Brexit winning with a come-from-behind victory, but it led in about half of the polls through 2016. Polling, at face value, was really close between the two sides.
 
B

Blueliner

Banned
pigeon said:
Depends why people think the country is going the wrong direction. Maybe you blame the GOP congress for the current situation.
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I don't believe the "majority" think like that though, they will usually put the blame on one person, whoever is on the top of the totem poll.
 
T

Team Alucard

Banned
Please,

RCP has her lead down to 4 points, even less than that if you include Johnson.

She is absolutely not going to exceed Obama's 2008, if the current trend holds, she might not even match his 2012.
 
T

Team Alucard

Banned
Morrigan Stark said:
*looks at fivethirtyeight.com, frowns*

Why is it down today then? Still high but dammit...
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Because Trump has had a slow but steady climb from rock-bottom over the past month. He's shaved off about half her lead in the popular vote since the initial round of post-convention polling.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Morrigan Stark said:
*looks at fivethirtyeight.com, frowns*

Why is it down today then? Still high but dammit...
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538's model is designed to react harshly to anything that could be interpreted as a trend. Let's say at the beginning of August a pollster had something like 48 Clinton 40 Trump. If that same pollster's most recent poll says something like 46 Clinton 41 Trump, their model essential sees that as a trend and tends to weigh those polls harder toward Trump than if it just weighed the hard numbers. Their model also adjusts state polls to closer match national polls (even though they claim state polls are more important). Soooo basically as Clinton's convention bounce died down, a lot of polls got closer and 538's model swung pretty harshly in the other direction.

Given where Clinton was in the polls though (around +8), pretty much anything aside from somehow building a lead, even a poll that showed the same spread, would be interpreted by 538's model as a narrowing race and swing toward Trump.

It's an interesting model for sure. Some of the results and shifts on a poll-by-poll basis don't make a lot of sense. Like on Monday an Arizona poll that actually had Clinton +1 somehow dropped her chances 1.3% in their model.
 
4

4Tran

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Pretty much. The House is gone until the gerrymandering is reversed, landslide or no.
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And to do that, it's all about governorships and state legislatures. Unfortunately, too many Democratic supports don't pay attention to these races, and they don't turn out for non-Presidential elections.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Team Alucard said:
Because Trump has had a slow but steady climb from rock-bottom over the past month. He's shaved off about half her lead in the popular vote since the initial round of post-convention polling.
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Hard to give Trump credit for climbing out of anything when his vote share is still garbage. It's more like his opponents is coming back closer to his level.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
I honestly am more excited to vote in the case of her potentially winning in a land slide. It's important to be involved, donate, and canvas, but I wouldn't worry too much as long as you have committed yourself to go out and vote.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Blueliner said:
That stat has jumped out at me since the beginning of this whole shitshow. With so many people thinking the country is going in the wrong direction, why would people vote for someone who literally wants to carry on a very similar direction as the current administration? Then the masterpiece that is Trump comes along and skews everything, he's hated almost as much as the candidate he's going against, at least by the internet. It will definitely be an interesting election day.

My question is, how many people are voting for Trump who aren't being vocal about it or making there voting presence known on the internet.
Click to expand...

It's a useless metric. Democrats and liberals can be just as unhappy because they aren't getting what they want and then blame the GOP for it for obstructionism.
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
It's looking good right now, but Democrats cannot get complacent. Still months to the election, keep pushing the advantage in organisation, ground game, battleground polls.


538zkjdc.jpg
 
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