Bonsaibäumchen
Member
Don't forget: Wait for the tools!But the games are coming, I mean at some point they have to, right?
Don't forget: Wait for the tools!But the games are coming, I mean at some point they have to, right?
Triangle Strategy was just an off-the-top-of-my-head example, but the big factor in GP day one is that Xbox (so far) doesn't dictate availability on other platforms, so you can have things like Lies of P launching day one on GP while still making that PS4/PS5 bundle of cash. The main issue for MS is that years of subsidizing GP (especially that $1 "loophole" that a trillion dollar company has continued to not address for like.. 3 years now!) has trained their audience to just not buy anything! If nobody buys games on that platform, then 3P companies don't have incentives to keep that audience in mind when planning for their own futures.Spencer is definitely out of a job if ABK falls through. There is no way he survives that, but he is also nightmarishly overpaying for ABK, so it's going to blow up in his face one way or another. They're paying pure pandemic prices for ABK. To compare it to T2, T2's stock price pre-pandemic was hovering around 110, it went as high as 210... Imagine paying 210*1.3 (273 per stock) or 45 billion dollars for a company valued today at 18.67 billion dollars, even with premium you're looking at 24.27 billion dollars... nearly half the price.
This M&A has AOL Time Warner written all over it and all it will take is a stumble where CoD loses popularity in the next 20 years.... Who could envision that?
But back to your response, your mistake is in thinking Triangle Strategy only costs 10 million. As a 60 dollar game, 10 million only covers 166K copies sold. Square is going to want more than that. And that price will keep going higher and higher. You eventually reach a point where publishers just don't want their games on GamePass day 1. And this doesn't include lost revenue from royalties.
Netflix was already taking on debt with 3rd party licensing. It was 100 million dollars for friends, and then they paid 500 million for 5 years of Seinfeld... Stranger Things Season 4 cost 270 million comparatively.
I think this factor often doesn't get mention when ppl discuss the XBone vs PS4 battle. That gen coincided with Japanese publishers and devs regaining their mojo when it comes to quality of products, the gen before it was largely a dark era for JPN gaming companies where they lost popularity and had to try to adapt to Western gaming tastes, with very mixed results. But by the time PS4 started gaining momentum, it was helped by companies like From Software making hit after hit, Sony even capitalized on it by making Bloodborne with them while Xbox.. Did nothing.If the ecosystem difference reach criticality, you get 'free exclusives". As an example Japanese console games often don't come out on Xbox in Japan because it isn't worth their time. And this means Sony gets exclusives that end up happen by default.
Triangle Strategy was just an off-the-top-of-my-head example, but the big factor in GP day one is that Xbox (so far) doesn't dictate availability on other platforms, so you can have things like Lies of P launching day one on GP while still making that PS4/PS5 bundle of cash. The main issue for MS is that years of subsidizing GP (especially that $1 "loophole" that a trillion dollar company has continued to not address for like.. 3 years now!) has trained their audience to just not buy anything! If nobody buys games on that platform, then 3P companies don't have incentives to keep that audience in mind when planning for their own futures.
Your Netflix example kinda exemplifies my argument, one season of Stranger Things (which initially wasn't guaranteed to make Netflix any money) cost more than what licensing 10 seasons of Friends did back in the day, those Friends seasons did a lot more to grow Netflix numbers and engagement than Stranger Things did imo.
Regarding what you said about this being potentially AOL Time Warner 2.0.. I definitely agree, there's a reason Kotick is trying to get out now, that man has risen to where he is right now because he always got out on top through multiple M&A rounds. He's not leaving Activision behind if he didn't think that his current biz model has peaked.
I think this factor often doesn't get mention when ppl discuss the XBone vs PS4 battle. That gen coincided with Japanese publishers and devs regaining their mojo when it comes to quality of products, the gen before it was largely a dark era for JPN gaming companies where they lost popularity and had to try to adapt to Western gaming tastes, with very mixed results. But by the time PS4 started gaining momentum, it was helped by companies like From Software making hit after hit, Sony even capitalized on it by making Bloodborne with them while Xbox.. Did nothing.
Sure, but this is something completely different entirely, we were talking about the statement you had when you said that Xbox PC doesn't matter.I was referring to the opportunity cost of bringing games day 1 to PC.
For instance, if Xbox remained a walled garden (like Nintendo) and didn't bring everything on PC day one, perhaps they'd sell more consoles (because there'd be more incentive to buy an Xbox for exclusives). Those additional console users could have increase Gamepass sub % and revenue. Third-party software sales on Xbox would have also increased.
So there is a possibility that Xbox without PC may be performing better than what it's doing currently.
I genuinely feel that it was one of the difference makers, even if its significance is secondary.I don't think Japanese companies getting their "mojo" back was the difference maker for PS4. Most the top selling games came from western studios. I think the difference maker here was Sony's first party offerings, especially out of the gate compared to PS3.
Most of the best selling Japanese made ps4 games came out on xbox one as well.I genuinely feel that it was one of the difference makers, even if its significance is secondary.
No one cared if Japanese devs supported the PS3 more than XB360 because the quality of their output was just.. Not very good during that era (Inafune in particular almost fucked Capcom royally through his chase of Western trends), but by the time the PS4 rolled around you had Atlus/From etc all delivering very strong product that might not be chart-topping in the way a COD would be, but still very compelling for the hardcore gamer that would be asked for advice on what console to buy by the more normie mainstream customers.
I feel MS still hasn't found a way to capture that influential segment yet, which they lost with Alway-on DRM bullshit during the XBone era.
That's not the case though. PS has been performing extremely well in the same US and UK market and the effects are not being offset from other regions.
So it's not the economic conditions that affected Xbox hardware sales. And it's not console supply shortage either. It's just that people don't want to buy Xbox as much anymore. That's why Xbox X|S just performed -44% worse in the US than Xbox One did in 2014, 2015, or 2016.
They only release those numbers if they are good.wait where's the gamepass subscriber count thought they released numbers on that
Nearly 2:1 from September to November in the U.S. last year.The PS5 outsold the xbox series X/S by 2 to 1 in november in the US?? That sounds impossible, where are these numbers?
Nearly 2:1 from September to November in the U.S. last year.
To add more context to this, this is Xbox's worst performance in the US Holiday season in like the last 15 years. This includes Xbox One's performance, which sold better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 than Xbox Series X and S sold in September - December.Holy fook sticks! that is BAD for MS in the US. If that doesnt light a fire under their ass to get games out ASAP then I dont know what will. A huge amount resting on 2023 now.
Didn't realise it was that bad. I guess these numbers are reliable.
To add more context to this, this is Xbox's worst performance in the US Holiday season in like the last 15 years. This includes Xbox One's performance, which sold better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 than Xbox Series X and S sold in September - December.
And Xbox Series S was selling at $230. Xbox One was at $399. But they still sold fewer units.
No worries. Hopefully if XSX can deliver 3-4 high-quality AAA games this year, things may improve.Yeah, no denying any of this. Even from a fan like myself this is abysmal. Like I said, I didn't realize it was that bad. :/
It can happen but they need to reform their current plan. The current plan involves experienced staff overseeing the studios and it takes time. It was obvious they were in trouble in 2017 and had 3 years to have a great launch. They launched with nothing first party (funny thing is they released games on the Xbox One earlier that year, why didn't they wait on those until Series launch date and release on both Xbone and Series). Don't over promise years ahead of time. Hype for some games has cooled since they were announced.It doesn't matter how cheap they make their games or their systems it's not as appealing as they want it to be. The dream of Xbox reaching billions of gamers is not going to happen.
Hyperbole? Those numbers are not bad considering they had no games.Holy fook sticks! that is BAD for MS in the US. If that doesnt light a fire under their ass to get games out ASAP then I dont know what will. A huge amount resting on 2023 now.
Didn't realise it was that bad. I guess these numbers are reliable.
Didn’t it almost happen after Xbox One?They've been saying it since the original Xbox, 2 decades later.....
Yeah, it’s like giving credit to Ken Kutaragi for the PS5 success as a machine.Yep. It really is unfair. Blaming the guy who left the company 10 years and 2 generations ago, instead of blaming the guys who have been in charge for the last 10 years.
That's one hell of switcherooHyperbole? Those numbers are not bad considering they had no games.
But those numbers are not as bad as you are all claiming.That's one hell of switcheroo
Weren't you folks beating your drums about the value of the series s and gamepass being the big seller? Jumping up and down about pentiment and high is life.
But now AAA exclusives matter.... uh huh.
In a way, he has. Sony learned to use more common components than to over engineer a solution no one needed.Yeah, it’s like giving credit to Ken Kutaragi for the PS5 success as a machine.
It still hurts that we lost the hardware based backwards compatibility that Kutaragi was pushing forward.In a way, he has. Sony learned to use more common components than to over engineer a solution no one needed.
. isn't the cell the main reason why PS3 backward compatibility is fucked?.It still hurts that we lost the hardware based backward compatibility that Kutaragi was pushing forward.
Yeah, but this is pure PR bullshit typical from MS. They twist the reality cherrypicking data that makes them look good while hiding what doesn't, and mention everything in the way they consider their potential customers will prefer.That was the inherent (common sense) idea, but not what Xbox leadership said. According to Phil, Gamepass also increases sales.
Phil Spencer: Game Pass leads to more game sales
This past weekend's X018 event was, arguably, a two-hour long advertisement for Game Pass, and given what Microsoft gam…www.gamesindustry.biz
Don't forget: Wait for the tools!
For reference --But those numbers are not as bad as you are all claiming.
Makes sense, I didn't considered it in this way: pretty likely they had limited supply so decided to focus it in the countries where they have more competition from MS, which also are top countries for Sony.US and UK makes the best sense businesswise, as they directly compete with MS in those markets.
If they dominate in those markets, it's exit for Xbox.
Which, again, shows in these earning calls and Spencers statements lately.
I think the numbers are bad, but we also have to consider that this year Sony (and I assume XBO at the same point) got several major top selling exclusives while MS had a weak year.For reference --
1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.
You do not think these numbers are as bad?
Well to be honest, one would have to look at numbers from other countries to.For reference --
1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.
You do not think these numbers are as bad?
Yes, but what about PS1 and PS2??. isn't the cell the main reason why PS3 backward compatibility is fucked?.
isnt the PS5 has something akin to the Cell processor? (that Mark Cerny presentation)Yes, but what about PS1 and PS2??
I was referring to Ken’s method of adding parts of legacy hardware in his new consoles.
E.g, PS2 had parts of PS1 hardware for its backwards compatibility and early PS3 models had the Emotion Engine cpu + Graphics Synthesizer gpu in the motherboard.
It's not good, but it's only 3 months. Months where there was zero reason to be excited about Xbox. I'm not as doom and gloom as you all I guess. 2023 is looking very promising for Xbox and that starts this afternoon with the showcase.For reference --
1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.
You do not think these numbers are as bad?
Hyperbole? Those numbers are not bad considering they had no games.
How is it impossible, that is the accepted/assumed ratio of PS4 to Xbox One for the entire gen.The PS5 outsold the xbox series X/S by 2 to 1 in november in the US?? That sounds impossible, where are these numbers?
im interested to see Sony financial report.
According to MS its growing but the numbers are still in Nadella's office in a closed safe...and Nadella forgot the code to open it...but they are growing...wait where's the gamepass subscriber count thought they released numbers on that
Sony actually has a pretty good 2023 lined up already -- even if they don't announce anything new game to be released this year.You know me, man. Im a big fan of Xbox. If those numbers are facts then its a rough one for MS in their home country. They are normally close to neck and neck, nearly a 2:1 sales difference in November, which I guess is correct going from the sourses, is pretty damn bad, no?
I'm not saying its like complete doom and gloom. We know the reasons why.
Sony released their biggest games in 2022 and they do seem to be dry until second half of 2023 but Spider Man 2 is coming and thats going to be huge.
MS need to turn it around in this first half and get those games out ASAP, plus have some great surprises for second half and I think they can turn it all around.
When half the game is available for free there is no 'narrative'. The fact remains you don't need Game pass to play the only part of Halo that gets regular updates. The update in March is for the multiplayer, the doom posts for Halo revealed there was no plans for campaign updates. Halo Infinite was not a game designed to push Game pass. The 'narrative' is to ignore games clearly designed to push Game pass like Forza Horizon 5.Let's ignore the Campaign because it doesn't fit in with your argument.
You realize that the showcase is to stop the bleeding right? It means Microsoft said, I don't care show what you have, and teams have probably had to work the last few weeks on prepping material. There is no coincidence with the timing of this, the financial report, and the layoffs.
Sony said PS5 had it's best month ever a few weeks ago & Switch is doing even better than PS5 so I would think so.I think they all are, are PS5 and Switch up VS Q4 2021?
I mean I would expect them to be with the releases, so it should send a firm message to Xbox to sort their release schedule out.
I work in a major electronic retail store and we have been getting skids of PS5s since November, but rarely ever get XBX, and when we do it's very little.YEP, MS is making their numbers look bad to gain favorable with regulators.
In fact, it's clear that MS won against Sony.
Are you accusing Microsoft of presenting false financial information?YEP, MS is making their numbers look bad to gain favorable with regulators.
In fact, it's clear that MS won against Sony.
Unfortunately, no. Xbox sells roughly 75% of consoles in the US and UK. We have the US data, as shared above.Well to be honest, one would have to look at numbers from other countries to.
Maybe those changed in favor of MS/Xbox.
Isn't it the 3 biggest months of the year for consoles?It's not good, but it's only 3 months. Months where there was zero reason to be excited about Xbox. I'm not as doom and gloom as you all I guess. 2023 is looking very promising for Xbox and that starts this afternoon with the showcase.
that cant be true , no wayI'm hearing from the other site and reddit that the total XBOX sales for 2022 is 800k.
Can anyone confirm?