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MS Earnings Call - FY23Q2 |

Astray

Member
Spencer is definitely out of a job if ABK falls through. There is no way he survives that, but he is also nightmarishly overpaying for ABK, so it's going to blow up in his face one way or another. They're paying pure pandemic prices for ABK. To compare it to T2, T2's stock price pre-pandemic was hovering around 110, it went as high as 210... Imagine paying 210*1.3 (273 per stock) or 45 billion dollars for a company valued today at 18.67 billion dollars, even with premium you're looking at 24.27 billion dollars... nearly half the price.

This M&A has AOL Time Warner written all over it and all it will take is a stumble where CoD loses popularity in the next 20 years.... Who could envision that?

But back to your response, your mistake is in thinking Triangle Strategy only costs 10 million. As a 60 dollar game, 10 million only covers 166K copies sold. Square is going to want more than that. And that price will keep going higher and higher. You eventually reach a point where publishers just don't want their games on GamePass day 1. And this doesn't include lost revenue from royalties.

Netflix was already taking on debt with 3rd party licensing. It was 100 million dollars for friends, and then they paid 500 million for 5 years of Seinfeld... Stranger Things Season 4 cost 270 million comparatively.
Triangle Strategy was just an off-the-top-of-my-head example, but the big factor in GP day one is that Xbox (so far) doesn't dictate availability on other platforms, so you can have things like Lies of P launching day one on GP while still making that PS4/PS5 bundle of cash. The main issue for MS is that years of subsidizing GP (especially that $1 "loophole" that a trillion dollar company has continued to not address for like.. 3 years now!) has trained their audience to just not buy anything! If nobody buys games on that platform, then 3P companies don't have incentives to keep that audience in mind when planning for their own futures.

Your Netflix example kinda exemplifies my argument, one season of Stranger Things (which initially wasn't guaranteed to make Netflix any money) cost more than what licensing 10 seasons of Friends did back in the day, those Friends seasons did a lot more to grow Netflix numbers and engagement than Stranger Things did imo.

Regarding what you said about this being potentially AOL Time Warner 2.0.. I definitely agree, there's a reason Kotick is trying to get out now, that man has risen to where he is right now because he always got out on top through multiple M&A rounds. He's not leaving Activision behind if he didn't think that his current biz model has peaked.

If the ecosystem difference reach criticality, you get 'free exclusives". As an example Japanese console games often don't come out on Xbox in Japan because it isn't worth their time. And this means Sony gets exclusives that end up happen by default.
I think this factor often doesn't get mention when ppl discuss the XBone vs PS4 battle. That gen coincided with Japanese publishers and devs regaining their mojo when it comes to quality of products, the gen before it was largely a dark era for JPN gaming companies where they lost popularity and had to try to adapt to Western gaming tastes, with very mixed results. But by the time PS4 started gaining momentum, it was helped by companies like From Software making hit after hit, Sony even capitalized on it by making Bloodborne with them while Xbox.. Did nothing.
 
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Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Triangle Strategy was just an off-the-top-of-my-head example, but the big factor in GP day one is that Xbox (so far) doesn't dictate availability on other platforms, so you can have things like Lies of P launching day one on GP while still making that PS4/PS5 bundle of cash. The main issue for MS is that years of subsidizing GP (especially that $1 "loophole" that a trillion dollar company has continued to not address for like.. 3 years now!) has trained their audience to just not buy anything! If nobody buys games on that platform, then 3P companies don't have incentives to keep that audience in mind when planning for their own futures.

Your Netflix example kinda exemplifies my argument, one season of Stranger Things (which initially wasn't guaranteed to make Netflix any money) cost more than what licensing 10 seasons of Friends did back in the day, those Friends seasons did a lot more to grow Netflix numbers and engagement than Stranger Things did imo.

Regarding what you said about this being potentially AOL Time Warner 2.0.. I definitely agree, there's a reason Kotick is trying to get out now, that man has risen to where he is right now because he always got out on top through multiple M&A rounds. He's not leaving Activision behind if he didn't think that his current biz model has peaked.


I think this factor often doesn't get mention when ppl discuss the XBone vs PS4 battle. That gen coincided with Japanese publishers and devs regaining their mojo when it comes to quality of products, the gen before it was largely a dark era for JPN gaming companies where they lost popularity and had to try to adapt to Western gaming tastes, with very mixed results. But by the time PS4 started gaining momentum, it was helped by companies like From Software making hit after hit, Sony even capitalized on it by making Bloodborne with them while Xbox.. Did nothing.


They do the 1 dollar loophole to keep their MAUs up. This is the only metric they're showing shareholders. They're buying time.

First, this was Stranger Things season 4, so it was as sure a thing as anything on TV. Earlier seasons of Stranger Things wouldn't have been so pricey. Stranger Things puts buts in seats, and they have control of it for the rest of time.

This is also where tv differs from gaming. Except for games like Animal Crossing, most aren't going to stick around playing the same game every day for years like they would watching friends every day on repeat. This is why you can pay for 3rd party tv but gaming doesn't have the same return on investment.

Ironically, Kotick has probably equal chance of being let go day 1 as is does of being put in charge of Xbox Game Studios in place of Spencer.

I don't think Japanese companies getting their "mojo" back was the difference maker for PS4. Most the top selling games came from western studios. I think the difference maker here was Sony's first party offerings, especially out of the gate compared to PS3.

You look at year 2 on PS3 and it had like Drakes Fortune which is easily the worst of the uncharted games. Don't think PS3 hit its stride until 2009 with Uncharted 2. That was 3 whole years later.

In a lot of ways the XSX/S looks like the PS3 but maybe worse out of the gate.
 

Bragr

Banned
I was referring to the opportunity cost of bringing games day 1 to PC.

For instance, if Xbox remained a walled garden (like Nintendo) and didn't bring everything on PC day one, perhaps they'd sell more consoles (because there'd be more incentive to buy an Xbox for exclusives). Those additional console users could have increase Gamepass sub % and revenue. Third-party software sales on Xbox would have also increased.

So there is a possibility that Xbox without PC may be performing better than what it's doing currently.
Sure, but this is something completely different entirely, we were talking about the statement you had when you said that Xbox PC doesn't matter.
 

Astray

Member
I don't think Japanese companies getting their "mojo" back was the difference maker for PS4. Most the top selling games came from western studios. I think the difference maker here was Sony's first party offerings, especially out of the gate compared to PS3.
I genuinely feel that it was one of the difference makers, even if its significance is secondary.

No one cared if Japanese devs supported the PS3 more than XB360 because the quality of their output was just.. Not very good during that era (Inafune in particular almost fucked Capcom royally through his chase of Western trends), but by the time the PS4 rolled around you had Atlus/From etc all delivering very strong product that might not be chart-topping in the way a COD would be, but still very compelling for the hardcore gamer that would be asked for advice on what console to buy by the more normie mainstream customers.

I feel MS still hasn't found a way to capture that influential segment yet, which they lost with Alway-on DRM bullshit during the XBone era.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
I genuinely feel that it was one of the difference makers, even if its significance is secondary.

No one cared if Japanese devs supported the PS3 more than XB360 because the quality of their output was just.. Not very good during that era (Inafune in particular almost fucked Capcom royally through his chase of Western trends), but by the time the PS4 rolled around you had Atlus/From etc all delivering very strong product that might not be chart-topping in the way a COD would be, but still very compelling for the hardcore gamer that would be asked for advice on what console to buy by the more normie mainstream customers.

I feel MS still hasn't found a way to capture that influential segment yet, which they lost with Alway-on DRM bullshit during the XBone era.
Most of the best selling Japanese made ps4 games came out on xbox one as well.

I think ff7 remake was one of the few major outliers.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
That's not the case though. PS has been performing extremely well in the same US and UK market and the effects are not being offset from other regions.
  • PS5 just recorded its best year in December 2022. (Source)
  • PS5 outsold Xbox X|S in November in the U.S. by more 2:1 (Source)
  • PS5 hit 1 million consoles sold in the UK in record time, even quicker than PS4 did. (Source)
So it's not the economic conditions that affected Xbox hardware sales. And it's not console supply shortage either. It's just that people don't want to buy Xbox as much anymore. That's why Xbox X|S just performed -44% worse in the US than Xbox One did in 2014, 2015, or 2016.

The PS5 outsold the xbox series X/S by 2 to 1 in november in the US?? That sounds impossible, where are these numbers?
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Holy fook sticks! that is BAD for MS in the US. If that doesnt light a fire under their ass to get games out ASAP then I dont know what will. A huge amount resting on 2023 now.

Didn't realise it was that bad. I guess these numbers are reliable.
To add more context to this, this is Xbox's worst performance in the US Holiday season in like the last 15 years. This includes Xbox One's performance, which sold better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 than Xbox Series X and S sold in September - December.

And Xbox Series S was selling at $230. Xbox One was at $399. But they still sold fewer units.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
To add more context to this, this is Xbox's worst performance in the US Holiday season in like the last 15 years. This includes Xbox One's performance, which sold better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 than Xbox Series X and S sold in September - December.

And Xbox Series S was selling at $230. Xbox One was at $399. But they still sold fewer units.

Yeah, no denying any of this. Even from a fan like myself this is abysmal. Like I said, I didn't realize it was that bad. :/
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Yeah, no denying any of this. Even from a fan like myself this is abysmal. Like I said, I didn't realize it was that bad. :/
No worries. Hopefully if XSX can deliver 3-4 high-quality AAA games this year, things may improve.

But they'll have to steer the ship soon; time is running out for them especially now that Sony has mostly resolved PS5 supply chain issues.
 

Dick Jones

Gold Member
It doesn't matter how cheap they make their games or their systems it's not as appealing as they want it to be. The dream of Xbox reaching billions of gamers is not going to happen.
It can happen but they need to reform their current plan. The current plan involves experienced staff overseeing the studios and it takes time. It was obvious they were in trouble in 2017 and had 3 years to have a great launch. They launched with nothing first party (funny thing is they released games on the Xbox One earlier that year, why didn't they wait on those until Series launch date and release on both Xbone and Series). Don't over promise years ahead of time. Hype for some games has cooled since they were announced.
 
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yurinka

Member
That was the inherent (common sense) idea, but not what Xbox leadership said. According to Phil, Gamepass also increases sales.

Yeah, but this is pure PR bullshit typical from MS. They twist the reality cherrypicking data that makes them look good while hiding what doesn't, and mention everything in the way they consider their potential customers will prefer.

In this case, probably a handful indies sold more thanks to getting more exposure in GP (as happened in PS+ with Fall Guys, Rocket League or Stray), and a handful big games maybe got heavily discounted so got more sales due to this and not due to being in GP.

But I highly doubt that to put a game in GP increased its sales in Xbox, because a game sub is like a rent: to have something for cheaper than buying it. So would be rare to rent it and also buy it.
 

XXL

Member
Having a decline in hardware this early into a generation with the most available AND lowest priced console option is nothing short of disasterous, in my opinion.

Why are people talking about Game Pass growth? Sure it may be growing but they have missed their internal targets 2 years in a row and declining hardware sales (in year 2) means less Game Pass subscribers, so they will probably miss their internal target again this year.
 
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TGO

Hype Train conductor. Works harder than it steams.
Don't forget: Wait for the tools!
giphy.webp
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
But those numbers are not as bad as you are all claiming.
For reference --

1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.

You do not think these numbers are as bad?
 

yurinka

Member
US and UK makes the best sense businesswise, as they directly compete with MS in those markets.

If they dominate in those markets, it's exit for Xbox.

Which, again, shows in these earning calls and Spencers statements lately.
Makes sense, I didn't considered it in this way: pretty likely they had limited supply so decided to focus it in the countries where they have more competition from MS, which also are top countries for Sony.

Other countries where Sony always clearly dominated MS would wait more for PS5 supplies without getting an Xbox, since they are Sonyland.

For reference --

1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.

You do not think these numbers are as bad?
I think the numbers are bad, but we also have to consider that this year Sony (and I assume XBO at the same point) got several major top selling exclusives while MS had a weak year.

So I assume that if in 2023 or 2024 MS starts releasing a constant and frequent output of big exclusives their numbers should improve.
 
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For reference --

1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.

You do not think these numbers are as bad?
Well to be honest, one would have to look at numbers from other countries to.
Maybe those changed in favor of MS/Xbox.
 
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solidus12

Member
❔ . isn't the cell the main reason why PS3 backward compatibility is fucked?.
Yes, but what about PS1 and PS2??

I was referring to Ken’s method of adding parts of legacy hardware in his new consoles.

E.g, PS2 had parts of PS1 hardware for its backwards compatibility and early PS3 models had the Emotion Engine cpu + Graphics Synthesizer gpu in the motherboard.
 
Yes, but what about PS1 and PS2??

I was referring to Ken’s method of adding parts of legacy hardware in his new consoles.

E.g, PS2 had parts of PS1 hardware for its backwards compatibility and early PS3 models had the Emotion Engine cpu + Graphics Synthesizer gpu in the motherboard.
isnt the PS5 has something akin to the Cell processor? (that Mark Cerny presentation)
 

Hendrick's

If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
For reference --

1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.

You do not think these numbers are as bad?
It's not good, but it's only 3 months. Months where there was zero reason to be excited about Xbox. I'm not as doom and gloom as you all I guess. 2023 is looking very promising for Xbox and that starts this afternoon with the showcase.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Hyperbole? Those numbers are not bad considering they had no games.

You know me, man. Im a big fan of Xbox. If those numbers are facts then its a rough one for MS in their home country. They are normally close to neck and neck, nearly a 2:1 sales difference in November, which I guess is correct going from the sourses, is pretty damn bad, no?

I'm not saying its like complete doom and gloom. We know the reasons why.

Sony released their biggest games in 2022 and they do seem to be dry until second half of 2023 but Spider Man 2 is coming and thats going to be huge.

MS need to turn it around in this first half and get those games out ASAP, plus have some great surprises for second half and I think they can turn it all around.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
You know me, man. Im a big fan of Xbox. If those numbers are facts then its a rough one for MS in their home country. They are normally close to neck and neck, nearly a 2:1 sales difference in November, which I guess is correct going from the sourses, is pretty damn bad, no?

I'm not saying its like complete doom and gloom. We know the reasons why.

Sony released their biggest games in 2022 and they do seem to be dry until second half of 2023 but Spider Man 2 is coming and thats going to be huge.

MS need to turn it around in this first half and get those games out ASAP, plus have some great surprises for second half and I think they can turn it all around.
Sony actually has a pretty good 2023 lined up already -- even if they don't announce anything new game to be released this year.
  • February will have PS VR 2. That'll give them a lot of positive news and mindshare. GT7 in PS VR 2 will particularly make headlines.
  • April will have Horizon Burning Shores.
  • June will have Final Fantasy XVI
  • September will likely have Spider-Man 2 (along with the rumored PS5 Slim likely at a relatively cheaper price point, which will push the Holiday sales once again)
  • Helldivers 2 is also scheduled for 2023 internally. They may be targeting November. Unlike the first one, it'll be a big game.
  • I'm assuming FFVII Rebirth will be delayed to 2024.
That's a good cadence of new exclusive content after 2-3 months. Then there is plenty of other lower-profile stuff to go in between: Stellar Blade, Tchia, Eternight, etc.

Hogwart's Legacy, although not an exclusive, will also sell bonkers on PlayStation. The game will likely sell 20M+, and I suspect ~10M of those would be on PlayStation. It'll also appeal to casuals and non-gamers, and they'll buy PlayStations just to play Hogwart's Legacy. The same goes for Avatar, which will have PlayStation marketing plastered all over. It'll also be propped up by Avatar 3, the movie.

There's one more piece of the puzzle: The Last of Us Online announcement. The Last of Us HBO is huge. They may not release TLOU Online in 2023, but even if they start talking about it in-depth (which they have confirmed they'll) and start showing the gameplay, people will go crazy and will buy the PS5 in anticipation of that game.

PlayStation is just going to build a lot of momentum and headlines this year.
 
Let's ignore the Campaign because it doesn't fit in with your argument.

You realize that the showcase is to stop the bleeding right? It means Microsoft said, I don't care show what you have, and teams have probably had to work the last few weeks on prepping material. There is no coincidence with the timing of this, the financial report, and the layoffs.
When half the game is available for free there is no 'narrative'. The fact remains you don't need Game pass to play the only part of Halo that gets regular updates. The update in March is for the multiplayer, the doom posts for Halo revealed there was no plans for campaign updates. Halo Infinite was not a game designed to push Game pass. The 'narrative' is to ignore games clearly designed to push Game pass like Forza Horizon 5.

You have no idea what MS told teams internally but based on your previous posts it's obvious what 'narrative' you are pushing. Let's see how 'mismanaged' the games look today.
 

onQ123

Member
I think they all are, are PS5 and Switch up VS Q4 2021?

I mean I would expect them to be with the releases, so it should send a firm message to Xbox to sort their release schedule out.
Sony said PS5 had it's best month ever a few weeks ago & Switch is doing even better than PS5 so I would think so.
 
YEP, MS is making their numbers look bad to gain favorable with regulators.
In fact, it's clear that MS won against Sony.
I work in a major electronic retail store and we have been getting skids of PS5s since November, but rarely ever get XBX, and when we do it's very little.

Wonder what's going on for them, they shouldn't be having supply issues.
 
Those Xbox US numbers are incredible considering the discounts, their home ground, the cost of PS5 games, the gamepass narrative and cheap subs, the buying up of major third party publishers.

Then you look at the likely Series X (the PS5 rival) sales and that's just worse again

This 70bn buyout of Activision really does feel like a gross and desperate maneuver.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Well to be honest, one would have to look at numbers from other countries to.
Maybe those changed in favor of MS/Xbox.
Unfortunately, no. Xbox sells roughly 75% of consoles in the US and UK. We have the US data, as shared above.

In the UK, they are pacing behind both Xbox 360 and Xbox One. Xbox Series X|S hasn't hit 2M units in the UK yet even after 115 weeks, while Xbox 360 reached the milestone in 110 weeks and Xbox One hit 2M in 104 weeks.

We also know that they are tracking behind Xbox 360 in Japan.

The rest of the world is extremely minuscule in comparison (< 20%), so it won't have any meaningful effect on the overall numbers -- assuming there even is an increase in the first place.
 

Mr Moose

Member
It's not good, but it's only 3 months. Months where there was zero reason to be excited about Xbox. I'm not as doom and gloom as you all I guess. 2023 is looking very promising for Xbox and that starts this afternoon with the showcase.
Isn't it the 3 biggest months of the year for consoles?
 

Pelta88

Member
I'm hearing from the other site and reddit that the total XBOX sales for 2022 is 800k.

Can anyone confirm?
 
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