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[superdeluxe]

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ru...rcise-belarus-preparation-for-a-big-war-nato/

NEAR ST. PETERSBURG, Russia -- A NATO military leader has raised new concern about Russia's massive military exercise underway on the very borders of Eastern Europe.

The head of NATO's military committee says the war games could be seen as "a serious preparation for a big war," despite Russian assurances they pose no threat.

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...99f4fa-9bb7-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html

LUGA, Russia — A revitalized Russian military on Monday sent tanks, paratroopers, artillery, antiaircraft weapons, jets and helicopters into frigid rains to engage the forces of a mock enemy called the "Western Coalition." The barrage of firepower, part of war games that began last week, was an explosive show of force that Baltic leaders said was a simulation of an attack against NATO forces in Eastern Europe.

 

[takriel]

As if Russia is interested in a big war.

 

[CoolOff]

And the NATO exercise isn't?

 

[Chittagong]

Sounds like the perfect reason to bring a lot of NATO troops all the way to Russian borders

 

[Jorok Goldblade]

Gotta start World War 3 while they still have the largest, most capable opposition military in the hands of an unqualified game show host...

 

[ClosingADoor]

And the NATO exercise isn't?

Took only two posts. NATO only increased their presence in the Baltics after Russia invaded Ukraine. Only one party is escalating the situation here.

 

[adversesolutions]

Look up Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian and Foal Eagle for some examples of large scale war games America has been doing for decades. This should be no surprise given NATO encroachments on Russian allies and borders.

 

[CertifiedFP]

Look up Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian and Foal Eagle for some examples of large scale war games America has been doing for decades. This should be no surprise given NATO encroachments on Russian allies and borders.

And this thread's Posts-Til-Tankies clocks in at... 7!!!

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Look up Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian and Foal Eagle for some examples of large scale war games America has been doing for decades. This should be no surprise given NATO encroachments on Russian allies and borders.

Thank you for this post.

Let's also add Terminal Fury to that list.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

The WaPo article isn't as scary as the CBS one most definitely. The former was talking about about how generals and officers from NATO weren't worried this was anything else more than an exercise.

At this point I think they're just trying to scare their neighbors.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Look up Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian and Foal Eagle for some examples of large scale war games America has been doing for decades. This should be no surprise given NATO encroachments on Russian allies and borders.

Three exercises with South Korea. I wonder why... Maybe because there is an unresolved conflict there maybe with a nation that is launching rockets every other week?

Now look up Russian oppression in the Baltics and see why they might be a little tense about Russia doing this stuff.

The WaPo article isn't as scary as the CBS one most definitely. The former was talking about about how generals and officers from NATO weren't worried this was anything else more than an exercise.

At this point I think they're just trying to scare their neighbors.

Its just intimidation, they are not going to invade. If anything happens it will be under the cover of "protecting" Russian minorities there, not an all out invasion. Let's hope Putin isn't willing to push his luck with that though.

 

[superdeluxe]

And the NATO exercise isn't?

I mean hear you, but isn't it wise to start exercises when you have Russia invading its neighbors? The Baltic countries are feeling the heat

 

[CertifiedFP]

I mean hear you, but isn't it wise to start exercises when you have Russia invading its neighbors? The Baltic countries are feeling the heat

You're right. It is wise to.

But you're talking to a blatant Tanky. Or Brocialist. Whatever the fuck they're called these days.

"NATO encroachment"... Shake my fucking head.

 

[superdeluxe]

Look up Key Resolve, Ulchi Freedom Guardian and Foal Eagle for some examples of large scale war games America has been doing for decades. This should be no surprise given NATO encroachments on Russian allies and borders.

Wouldn't it be more accurate that Russia's allies are going west?

 

[brian577]

Russia is probably waiting for the NK shit show to kick off. Perfect time to take back Eastern Europe while the US is distracted.

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

The WaPo article isn't as scary as the CBS one most definitely. The former was talking about about how generals and officers from NATO weren't worried this was anything else more than an exercise.

At this point I think they're just trying to scare their neighbors.

I feel like I need to mention this in every single thread like this...

Unless and until you actually see major troop deployments and the evacuation of noncombatants (i.e., military dependents) from flashpoint areas, you're basically relying upon sensational articles written, at least sometimes, by people who don't know what the fuck they're talking about.

Honestly, the only thing I wonder is if this exercise violated the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, but I don't remember enough of that to comment -- it's been a while since I worked on that particular issue...

"It's following in line with what we've seen with these annual exercises in the past. They're usually very large. They're usually initially defensive in nature but also have an offensive portion thereafter that looks to me like a rehearsal of an attack," Scaparrotti added. "That's worrisome if you're a NATO country on the border."

To be blunt, this is fucking nothing (or rather, to be perfectly fair, it's more of the same).

And if you don't think that the US and its allies pretend-fight fictional versions of Russia in exercises... well, I'm not even going to make a joke: of course we do.

 

[Impeccable]

Interesting.

 

[SlipperyFishes]

As if Russia is interested in a big war.

"We're not so innocent"

Am I doing it right, komrade?

 

[Random Human]

I guess there's a certain poetry to whataboutism in a thread about Russia.

 

[BrassDragon]

The key thing is the scale. NATO has been running annual drills ('Saber Strike') near the Russian borders with the last one deploying nearly 12.000 troops in the Baltics.

Putin says this Zapad 17 exercise is at the same level, with 13.000 troops maneuvering. Bad in the context of rising tensions but at least proportional to what NATO is doing.

Now there are wild claims coming out of NATO that there are actually 100K troops involved, which is an insane number if true (by comparison, Putin mobilized about 30,000 troops prior to the Crimea annexation.)

Are there actual changes in NATO posture happening to cope with this alleged threat and do we have some detail how analysts arrived at that number? Or is it all words?

 

[Mael]

And the NATO exercise isn't?

You tell me, Donald.

 

[TheOMan]

You tell me, Donald.

We're not so...

"We're not so innocent"

Am I doing it right, komrade?

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

The key thing is the scale. NATO has been running annual drills ('Saber Strike') near the Russian borders with the last one deploying nearly 12.000 troops in the Baltics.

Putin says this Zapad 17 exercise is at the same level, with 13.000 troops maneuvering. Bad in the context of rising tensions but at least proportional to what NATO is doing.

Now there are wild claims coming out of NATO that there are actually 100K troops involved, which is an insane number if true (by comparison, Putin mobilized about 30,000 troops prior to the Crimea annexation.)

Are there actual changes in NATO posture happening to cope with this alleged threat and do we have some detail how analysts arrived at that number? Or is it all words?

Yes, but Russia's gameplan is to lead with cyber, destabilize a target internally, and insert forces into splinter groups. It's methodical incrementalism.

That 100k number is wild, though. Where are you hearing that?

This article itself is pretty much worthless, but that would be an interesting data point.

 

[BrassDragon]

Yes, but Russia's gameplan is to lead with cyber, destabilize a target internally, and insert forces into splinter groups. It's methodical incrementalism.

That 100k number is wild, though. Where are you hearing that?

This article itself is pretty much worthless, but that would be an interesting data point.

EDIT: was reading an earlier CBS article, the 100K number is not current.

Still not panicking until more detailed news comes out (and anyone checking my history can see I have no love for the current regime in Russia.)

 

[superdeluxe]

Wasn't the concern that Russia was not allowing enough monitors? Was that some form if agreement that each side can have x amount of monitors

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

The OP leads with 'Putin planning to send 100K troops to Baltic border for drills?' I'm not buying it until more detailed news comes out (and anyone checking my history can see I have no love for the current regime in Russia.)

This is the relevant quote:

“The Russians have ordered 83 times... the rail cars that they ordered for Zapad (in 2013),” Breedlove said at the Senate hearing, reports CBS Radio News correspondent Cami McCormick. “So the size of this exercise will be demonstrably bigger.”

Russia said 10,000 troops took part in the 2013 drills, which spanned across Russian territory and involved all branches of its military, but some Western defense analysts have said the actual number was likely closer to 70,000.

The headline is far more alarmist than GEN Breedove's hearsay. Not that it shouldn't be concerning, but it isn't as if Russia's regular exercises suddenly increased in size by a factor of 10.

Wasn't the concern that Russia was not allowing enough monitors? Was that some form if agreement that each side can have x amount of monitors

Are you thinking about the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine?

 

[chadskin]

Wasn't the concern that Russia was not allowing enough monitors? Was that some form if agreement that each side can have x amount of monitors

Yes. Military exercises involving more than 13,000 soldiers require that they're observed by foreign monitors of the OSCE. If in fact (significantly) more soldiers are participating than Russia officially states, it obviously begs the question what they're trying to hide.

It may very well be the case they're not trying to hide anything but the lack of transparency obviously causes mistrust between Russia and the remaining OSCE members, which is what the Vienna Document of the OSCE sought to prevent.

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Yes. Military exercises involving more than 13,000 soldiers require that they're observed by foreign monitors of the OSCE. If in fact (significantly) more soldiers are participating than Russia officially states, it obviously begs the question what they're trying to hide.

It may very well be the case they're not trying to hide anything but the lack of transparency obviously causes mistrust between Russia and the remaining OSCE members, which is what the Vienna Document of the OSCE sought to prevent.

THANK YOU for this.

I conflated the SMM with the Vienna Document. It's been a few years since I actually (kinda) worked in the Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia shop.

But yeah: this is basically it. Russia consistently lies about its numbers to avoid OSCe monitors, but they've done it before and they're doing it again. Of course, the reason for the lack of alarm is that... I mean, GEOINT's going to pick up large-scale troop movements.

 

[xfactor99]

edit: nvm, delete this

 

[hobblygobbly]

Yes, but Russia's gameplan is to lead with cyber, destabilize a target internally, and insert forces into splinter groups. It's methodical incrementalism.

That 100k number is wild, though. Where are you hearing that?

This article itself is pretty much worthless, but that would be an interesting data point.

BMVg (German defence ministry) a week or so ago reported 100k number of personnel involved across various exercises over the course of Zapad.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

what's the worry? these exercises happen all the time?

 

[TheMan]

Isn't the point of military exercises to be ready for war? Don't they happen all the time? Didn't we just participate in large scale exercises?

 

[hobblygobbly]

what's the worry? these exercises happen all the time?

Isn't the point of military exercises to be ready for war? Don't they happen all the time? Didn't we just participate in large scale exercises?

Russia has used exercises as a cover twice in the past for invasions (Georgia and Crimea region of Ukraine).

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

BMVg (German defence ministry) a week or so ago reported 100k number of personnel involved across various exercises over the course of Zapad.

That's insane if true - that must be a substantial chunk of their deploy-able forces?

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

100k number is from BMVg (German defence ministry) a week or so ago.

Hmm. Cool, thanks for the heads up.

Yeah, the real analysis would be looking at the delta between the numbers of troops intelligence agencies reported during the last Zapad vs. this one.

what's the worry? these exercises happen all the time?

There's no real direct, immediate worry, and it's not like we don't know (though, not with 100% accuracy) how many Tu-95s are airworthy and where they're based.

The biggest inference that one can reasonably draw -- assuming that, for instance, this iteration of Zapad was 25% larger than the previous one, both flouting the Vienna Document -- is that Putin fears NATO reprisals even less than last time. Which isn't a surprise, considering Trump's done everything short of repudiating Article 5.

 

[Giant Panda]

The Economist had an article a few weeks ago that was discussing this exercise vs NATO exercises. Basically, NATO follows international treaties and reduces tensions by letting Russia send observers to their exercises. Russia on the other hand claims that only a few thousand troops participate in theirs, so that they are under the troop # threshold for having to let NATO send observers. But really, Russia is over that threshold by quite a bit.

So "both sides are the same" is basically bullshit. Surprise, Surprise.

 

[qcf x2]

War games look like simulated war preparation. Okay, wow.

 

[Ryuuroden]

War games look like simulated war preparation. Okay, wow.

There is defensive and offensive war games, they are quite different.

Russia practices offensive oriented ones.

 

[WaterAstro]

They gave NK nukes.